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2021-08-27
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Why stock market bulls may be right to push valuations so high<blockquote>为什么股市多头将估值推得如此之高可能是正确的</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":819695136,"tweetId":"819695136","gmtCreate":1630062029125,"gmtModify":1704955357963,"author":{"id":3578694659764112,"idStr":"3578694659764112","authorId":3578694659764112,"authorIdStr":"3578694659764112","name":"haiguan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f51337170e6c746d423036e25009fe","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819695136","repostId":1161784228,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161784228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630047842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161784228?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 15:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why stock market bulls may be right to push valuations so high<blockquote>为什么股市多头将估值推得如此之高可能是正确的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161784228","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investor sentiment right now doesn’t indicate a frothy market\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nWith","content":"<p>Investor sentiment right now doesn’t indicate a frothy market</p><p><blockquote>目前的投资者情绪并不表明市场存在泡沫</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97be72b5bb9e18d0dd71a2ffdb82aa83\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With U.S. stocks reaching new highs, investors and experts alike are starting to wonder if market conditions are getting frothy.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国股市创下新高,投资者和专家都开始怀疑市场状况是否正在出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> In a frothy market, investor enthusiasm begins to outpace any consideration of risk. Investors feel confident in the economy and corporate earnings and begin to project that confidence further into the future. They increasingly listen to their greed impulse and tune out fear, leading them to bid up stock prices to levels that look historically high and difficult to justify based on the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在泡沫市场中,投资者的热情开始超过任何对风险的考虑。投资者对经济和企业盈利充满信心,并开始将这种信心进一步投射到未来。他们越来越多地倾听自己的贪婪冲动,忽视恐惧,导致他们将股价推高到历史高位,从近期前景来看很难证明其合理性。</blockquote></p><p> Taken to its extreme, this eventually lays the groundwork for a bubble, when investor emotion causes prices to detach completely from valuation. We certainly are not there at this point, so we’ll leave that for another time.</p><p><blockquote>在极端情况下,当投资者情绪导致价格完全脱离估值时,这最终会为泡沫奠定基础。我们目前肯定还没有到达那里,所以我们将把它留到另一个时间。</blockquote></p><p> A clear example of frothiness played out in late 2017, when many investors were fully invested in stocks and behaving as though volatility was only going lower. Fear of missing out overtook the fear of losing money and many took on more risk than they probably would have wanted (or perhaps even realized they had) in a more normal environment. Those are classic symptoms of a frothy market.</p><p><blockquote>泡沫的一个明显例子发生在2017年底,当时许多投资者完全投资于股票,表现得好像波动性只会下降。对错过的恐惧超过了对赔钱的恐惧,许多人承担了比他们在更正常的环境中可能希望(或者甚至意识到他们已经承担了)更多的风险。这些都是泡沫市场的典型症状。</blockquote></p><p> While there have been pockets of speculation of late — cryptocurrencies, SPACs, meme stocks — we are not seeing the sort of widespread excess in investor enthusiasm that would lead us to characterize the broader market as frothy. Yes, returns have been robust and stocks have risen steadily. One could easily assume that investors have anchored on recent good news and moved into the “greed” phase.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近出现了一些投机——加密货币、SPAC、meme股票——但我们没有看到投资者热情普遍过剩,这会导致我们将更广泛的市场描述为泡沫。是的,回报强劲,股市稳步上涨。人们很容易认为,投资者已经锚定了最近的好消息,进入了“贪婪”阶段。</blockquote></p><p> But what if this optimism is justified? Economic growth has been exceptionally strong, driven by pent-up demand and massively accommodative policy, while earnings have rebounded dramatically. Continued growth should bring valuations to a point where they begin to look more reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>但如果这种乐观是有道理的呢?在被压抑的需求和大规模宽松政策的推动下,经济增长异常强劲,而盈利也大幅反弹。持续的增长应该会使估值开始看起来更加合理。</blockquote></p><p> Measures of risk appetite, meanwhile, are not extreme; the various risk barometers periodically make a run at exuberance, but there’s still enough to worry about — from a possible Fed policy change to the growing spread of the Delta variant — to put investor emotion back in check before things get out of hand.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时,风险偏好的衡量标准并不极端;各种风险晴雨表定期出现繁荣,但仍然有足够多的担忧——从美联储可能的政策变化到德尔塔变异毒株的日益扩大——可以在事情失控之前控制投资者的情绪。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, investors’ inability to shake these worries produces an interesting paradox, whereby the largest and most-stable stocks are one of the few areas that might actually be starting to warrant the “frothy” label. Investors feel they have no choice but to own stocks, yet are reluctant to take on risk.</p><p><blockquote>事实上,投资者无法摆脱这些担忧产生了一个有趣的悖论,即最大、最稳定的股票是少数几个实际上可能开始被贴上“泡沫”标签的领域之一。投资者觉得他们别无选择,只能持有股票,但又不愿意承担风险。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, traditional “risk-on” sectors — small-caps, high-beta stocks, IPOs, for example — have lost steam as investors pivot to their favorite large-cap, U.S. growth companies, which have seen their price multiples and representation in the indexes rise to lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>结果,随着投资者转向他们最喜欢的美国大盘股成长型公司,传统的“风险偏好”行业——例如小盘股、高贝塔值股票、首次公开募股——已经失去了动力,这些公司的价格倍数和指数中的代表性上升到很高的水平。</blockquote></p><p> At times like this, it can be tempting to chase performance and buy even more of what’s working because “it’s going up.” But like the Hotel California, getting in is not a problem, but getting out may prove difficult as everyone heads for the exit at once.</p><p><blockquote>在这种时候,人们很容易追逐性能并购买更多有效的产品,因为“它正在上涨”。但就像加州酒店一样,进去不是问题,但出来可能会很困难,因为每个人都同时走向出口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk control</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险控制</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors do have options to mitigate the risks that may be developing within this part of the market. While some are turning to “smart beta,” which uses a different index-weighting methodology — such as dividends or volatility (versus the market capitalization-weighted approach used by many indexes) — there is a clear element of market timing in such moves that can materially impact performance.</p><p><blockquote>投资者确实有选择来减轻这部分市场可能出现的风险。虽然一些人转向“智能贝塔”,它使用不同的指数加权方法——如股息或波动性(相对于许多指数使用的市值加权方法)——但在这种波动中,有一个明显的市场时机因素,可以对业绩产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Better to choose a balanced approach — for example, an equal-weighted exchange-traded fund, such as Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight ETF or the more reasonably priced iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF — may reduce concentration and manage risk better than a more extreme move into, say, a value-skewed, dividend-weighted fund.</p><p><blockquote>最好选择平衡的方法,例如等权重交易所交易基金,例如Invesco S。</blockquote></p><p> For those who manage to maintain a reasonable time horizon, start looking for opportunities; remember they’re unlikely to reside within the market’s current darlings, so you’ll want to cast a broad net.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些设法保持合理时间范围的人,开始寻找机会;请记住,它们不太可能存在于市场当前的宠儿中,因此您需要撒下一张大网。</blockquote></p><p> If you’re patient, developed markets outside of the U.S. are shaping up to offer more fertile ground. The iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF offers a cost-effective way to get exposure to developed markets, while Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF does the same for emerging regions; meanwhile, consider Vanguard’s FTSE All-World ex-US ETF for an all-in-one solution.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有耐心,美国以外的发达市场正在形成提供更肥沃的土壤。iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF提供了一种投资发达市场的经济高效的方式,而Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF则为新兴地区提供了同样的服务;与此同时,考虑先锋集团的富时全球(美国除外)ETF,以获得一体化解决方案。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, keep in mind that emotion is not your friend, so stay disciplined. When things look frothy, investors often try to time the market by moving to cash, a notoriously tricky and strongly discouraged maneuver. Even those lucky enough to avoid a pullback rarely get the re-entry right, leaving them sitting on the sidelines watching a major market advance pass them by. Remember, you and your financial adviser worked hard to find the right long-term strategy for you — stick with it for the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>同时,请记住,情绪不是你的朋友,所以要保持自律。当事情看起来有泡沫时,投资者通常试图通过转向现金来把握市场时机,这是一个众所周知的棘手和强烈不鼓励的策略。即使是那些足够幸运避免回调的人也很少能正确地重新进入,让他们坐在场边看着重大的市场上涨与他们擦肩而过。记住,你和你的财务顾问努力寻找适合你的长期策略——长期坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why stock market bulls may be right to push valuations so high<blockquote>为什么股市多头将估值推得如此之高可能是正确的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy stock market bulls may be right to push valuations so high<blockquote>为什么股市多头将估值推得如此之高可能是正确的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 15:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investor sentiment right now doesn’t indicate a frothy market</p><p><blockquote>目前的投资者情绪并不表明市场存在泡沫</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97be72b5bb9e18d0dd71a2ffdb82aa83\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With U.S. stocks reaching new highs, investors and experts alike are starting to wonder if market conditions are getting frothy.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国股市创下新高,投资者和专家都开始怀疑市场状况是否正在出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> In a frothy market, investor enthusiasm begins to outpace any consideration of risk. Investors feel confident in the economy and corporate earnings and begin to project that confidence further into the future. They increasingly listen to their greed impulse and tune out fear, leading them to bid up stock prices to levels that look historically high and difficult to justify based on the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在泡沫市场中,投资者的热情开始超过任何对风险的考虑。投资者对经济和企业盈利充满信心,并开始将这种信心进一步投射到未来。他们越来越多地倾听自己的贪婪冲动,忽视恐惧,导致他们将股价推高到历史高位,从近期前景来看很难证明其合理性。</blockquote></p><p> Taken to its extreme, this eventually lays the groundwork for a bubble, when investor emotion causes prices to detach completely from valuation. We certainly are not there at this point, so we’ll leave that for another time.</p><p><blockquote>在极端情况下,当投资者情绪导致价格完全脱离估值时,这最终会为泡沫奠定基础。我们目前肯定还没有到达那里,所以我们将把它留到另一个时间。</blockquote></p><p> A clear example of frothiness played out in late 2017, when many investors were fully invested in stocks and behaving as though volatility was only going lower. Fear of missing out overtook the fear of losing money and many took on more risk than they probably would have wanted (or perhaps even realized they had) in a more normal environment. Those are classic symptoms of a frothy market.</p><p><blockquote>泡沫的一个明显例子发生在2017年底,当时许多投资者完全投资于股票,表现得好像波动性只会下降。对错过的恐惧超过了对赔钱的恐惧,许多人承担了比他们在更正常的环境中可能希望(或者甚至意识到他们已经承担了)更多的风险。这些都是泡沫市场的典型症状。</blockquote></p><p> While there have been pockets of speculation of late — cryptocurrencies, SPACs, meme stocks — we are not seeing the sort of widespread excess in investor enthusiasm that would lead us to characterize the broader market as frothy. Yes, returns have been robust and stocks have risen steadily. One could easily assume that investors have anchored on recent good news and moved into the “greed” phase.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近出现了一些投机——加密货币、SPAC、meme股票——但我们没有看到投资者热情普遍过剩,这会导致我们将更广泛的市场描述为泡沫。是的,回报强劲,股市稳步上涨。人们很容易认为,投资者已经锚定了最近的好消息,进入了“贪婪”阶段。</blockquote></p><p> But what if this optimism is justified? Economic growth has been exceptionally strong, driven by pent-up demand and massively accommodative policy, while earnings have rebounded dramatically. Continued growth should bring valuations to a point where they begin to look more reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>但如果这种乐观是有道理的呢?在被压抑的需求和大规模宽松政策的推动下,经济增长异常强劲,而盈利也大幅反弹。持续的增长应该会使估值开始看起来更加合理。</blockquote></p><p> Measures of risk appetite, meanwhile, are not extreme; the various risk barometers periodically make a run at exuberance, but there’s still enough to worry about — from a possible Fed policy change to the growing spread of the Delta variant — to put investor emotion back in check before things get out of hand.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时,风险偏好的衡量标准并不极端;各种风险晴雨表定期出现繁荣,但仍然有足够多的担忧——从美联储可能的政策变化到德尔塔变异毒株的日益扩大——可以在事情失控之前控制投资者的情绪。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, investors’ inability to shake these worries produces an interesting paradox, whereby the largest and most-stable stocks are one of the few areas that might actually be starting to warrant the “frothy” label. Investors feel they have no choice but to own stocks, yet are reluctant to take on risk.</p><p><blockquote>事实上,投资者无法摆脱这些担忧产生了一个有趣的悖论,即最大、最稳定的股票是少数几个实际上可能开始被贴上“泡沫”标签的领域之一。投资者觉得他们别无选择,只能持有股票,但又不愿意承担风险。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, traditional “risk-on” sectors — small-caps, high-beta stocks, IPOs, for example — have lost steam as investors pivot to their favorite large-cap, U.S. growth companies, which have seen their price multiples and representation in the indexes rise to lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>结果,随着投资者转向他们最喜欢的美国大盘股成长型公司,传统的“风险偏好”行业——例如小盘股、高贝塔值股票、首次公开募股——已经失去了动力,这些公司的价格倍数和指数中的代表性上升到很高的水平。</blockquote></p><p> At times like this, it can be tempting to chase performance and buy even more of what’s working because “it’s going up.” But like the Hotel California, getting in is not a problem, but getting out may prove difficult as everyone heads for the exit at once.</p><p><blockquote>在这种时候,人们很容易追逐性能并购买更多有效的产品,因为“它正在上涨”。但就像加州酒店一样,进去不是问题,但出来可能会很困难,因为每个人都同时走向出口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk control</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险控制</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors do have options to mitigate the risks that may be developing within this part of the market. While some are turning to “smart beta,” which uses a different index-weighting methodology — such as dividends or volatility (versus the market capitalization-weighted approach used by many indexes) — there is a clear element of market timing in such moves that can materially impact performance.</p><p><blockquote>投资者确实有选择来减轻这部分市场可能出现的风险。虽然一些人转向“智能贝塔”,它使用不同的指数加权方法——如股息或波动性(相对于许多指数使用的市值加权方法)——但在这种波动中,有一个明显的市场时机因素,可以对业绩产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Better to choose a balanced approach — for example, an equal-weighted exchange-traded fund, such as Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight ETF or the more reasonably priced iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF — may reduce concentration and manage risk better than a more extreme move into, say, a value-skewed, dividend-weighted fund.</p><p><blockquote>最好选择平衡的方法,例如等权重交易所交易基金,例如Invesco S。</blockquote></p><p> For those who manage to maintain a reasonable time horizon, start looking for opportunities; remember they’re unlikely to reside within the market’s current darlings, so you’ll want to cast a broad net.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些设法保持合理时间范围的人,开始寻找机会;请记住,它们不太可能存在于市场当前的宠儿中,因此您需要撒下一张大网。</blockquote></p><p> If you’re patient, developed markets outside of the U.S. are shaping up to offer more fertile ground. The iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF offers a cost-effective way to get exposure to developed markets, while Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF does the same for emerging regions; meanwhile, consider Vanguard’s FTSE All-World ex-US ETF for an all-in-one solution.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有耐心,美国以外的发达市场正在形成提供更肥沃的土壤。iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF提供了一种投资发达市场的经济高效的方式,而Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF则为新兴地区提供了同样的服务;与此同时,考虑先锋集团的富时全球(美国除外)ETF,以获得一体化解决方案。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, keep in mind that emotion is not your friend, so stay disciplined. When things look frothy, investors often try to time the market by moving to cash, a notoriously tricky and strongly discouraged maneuver. Even those lucky enough to avoid a pullback rarely get the re-entry right, leaving them sitting on the sidelines watching a major market advance pass them by. Remember, you and your financial adviser worked hard to find the right long-term strategy for you — stick with it for the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>同时,请记住,情绪不是你的朋友,所以要保持自律。当事情看起来有泡沫时,投资者通常试图通过转向现金来把握市场时机,这是一个众所周知的棘手和强烈不鼓励的策略。即使是那些足够幸运避免回调的人也很少能正确地重新进入,让他们坐在场边看着重大的市场上涨与他们擦肩而过。记住,你和你的财务顾问努力寻找适合你的长期策略——长期坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-may-be-right-to-push-valuations-so-high-11630010176?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-may-be-right-to-push-valuations-so-high-11630010176?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161784228","content_text":"Investor sentiment right now doesn’t indicate a frothy market\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nWith U.S. stocks reaching new highs, investors and experts alike are starting to wonder if market conditions are getting frothy.\nIn a frothy market, investor enthusiasm begins to outpace any consideration of risk. Investors feel confident in the economy and corporate earnings and begin to project that confidence further into the future. They increasingly listen to their greed impulse and tune out fear, leading them to bid up stock prices to levels that look historically high and difficult to justify based on the near-term outlook.\nTaken to its extreme, this eventually lays the groundwork for a bubble, when investor emotion causes prices to detach completely from valuation. We certainly are not there at this point, so we’ll leave that for another time.\nA clear example of frothiness played out in late 2017, when many investors were fully invested in stocks and behaving as though volatility was only going lower. Fear of missing out overtook the fear of losing money and many took on more risk than they probably would have wanted (or perhaps even realized they had) in a more normal environment. Those are classic symptoms of a frothy market.\nWhile there have been pockets of speculation of late — cryptocurrencies, SPACs, meme stocks — we are not seeing the sort of widespread excess in investor enthusiasm that would lead us to characterize the broader market as frothy. Yes, returns have been robust and stocks have risen steadily. One could easily assume that investors have anchored on recent good news and moved into the “greed” phase.\nBut what if this optimism is justified? Economic growth has been exceptionally strong, driven by pent-up demand and massively accommodative policy, while earnings have rebounded dramatically. Continued growth should bring valuations to a point where they begin to look more reasonable.\nMeasures of risk appetite, meanwhile, are not extreme; the various risk barometers periodically make a run at exuberance, but there’s still enough to worry about — from a possible Fed policy change to the growing spread of the Delta variant — to put investor emotion back in check before things get out of hand.\nIn fact, investors’ inability to shake these worries produces an interesting paradox, whereby the largest and most-stable stocks are one of the few areas that might actually be starting to warrant the “frothy” label. Investors feel they have no choice but to own stocks, yet are reluctant to take on risk.\nAs a result, traditional “risk-on” sectors — small-caps, high-beta stocks, IPOs, for example — have lost steam as investors pivot to their favorite large-cap, U.S. growth companies, which have seen their price multiples and representation in the indexes rise to lofty levels.\nAt times like this, it can be tempting to chase performance and buy even more of what’s working because “it’s going up.” But like the Hotel California, getting in is not a problem, but getting out may prove difficult as everyone heads for the exit at once.\nRisk control\nInvestors do have options to mitigate the risks that may be developing within this part of the market. While some are turning to “smart beta,” which uses a different index-weighting methodology — such as dividends or volatility (versus the market capitalization-weighted approach used by many indexes) — there is a clear element of market timing in such moves that can materially impact performance.\nBetter to choose a balanced approach — for example, an equal-weighted exchange-traded fund, such as Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight ETF or the more reasonably priced iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF — may reduce concentration and manage risk better than a more extreme move into, say, a value-skewed, dividend-weighted fund.\nFor those who manage to maintain a reasonable time horizon, start looking for opportunities; remember they’re unlikely to reside within the market’s current darlings, so you’ll want to cast a broad net.\nIf you’re patient, developed markets outside of the U.S. are shaping up to offer more fertile ground. The iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF offers a cost-effective way to get exposure to developed markets, while Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF does the same for emerging regions; meanwhile, consider Vanguard’s FTSE All-World ex-US ETF for an all-in-one solution.\nMeanwhile, keep in mind that emotion is not your friend, so stay disciplined. When things look frothy, investors often try to time the market by moving to cash, a notoriously tricky and strongly discouraged maneuver. Even those lucky enough to avoid a pullback rarely get the re-entry right, leaving them sitting on the sidelines watching a major market advance pass them by. Remember, you and your financial adviser worked hard to find the right long-term strategy for you — stick with it for the long-term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/819695136"}
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