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2021-10-08

Buy the dip if the market drop 💪🏻💪🏻

September’s Jobs Report Is Coming. It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.<blockquote>9月份的就业报告即将发布。对投资者来说，好消息可能是坏消息。</blockquote>

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It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.<blockquote>9月份的就业报告即将发布。对投资者来说，好消息可能是坏消息。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132662434","media":"Barrons","summary":"The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.\nFor months, economists and central bankers ","content":" The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.<blockquote>期待已久的9月份就业报告即将下降。</blockquote> For months, economists and central bankers have said September is when millions of workers would re-enter the labor market, helping supply chains thaw and setting up an economy that is ready for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back emergency bond buying launched in response to the pandemic.<blockquote>几个月来，经济学家和央行行长一直表示，9月份将是数百万工人重新进入劳动力市场的时候，帮助供应链解冻，并建立一个经济，为美联储开始缩减为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买做好准备。</blockquote> The stock market pullback began when the Fed signaled a coming shift in policy, says Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics. He says the risk for investors is thus for a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number, with a strong report unlikely to be friendly for equity or bond markets.<blockquote>Ironsides Macroeconomics管理合伙人巴里·纳普(Barry Knapp)表示，当美联储发出即将转向政策时，股市就开始回调。他表示，因此投资者面临的风险是非农就业数据好于预期，强劲的报告不太可能对股票或债券市场有利。</blockquote> That’s not because of taper timing. Knapp, like many other strategists, says a November taper announcement is a foregone conclusion. To that point, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “set the bar very low,” saying a “decent” September jobs report would be enough to satisfy the last hurdle for a reduction in the $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, says Lydia Boussour, economist at Oxford Economics. Instead, markets are looking for clues around the timing of interest rate liftoff.<blockquote>这不是因为锥度时间。与许多其他策略师一样，纳普表示，11月宣布缩减规模已成定局。为此，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“将标准定得很低”，称一份“体面”的9月份就业报告足以满足每月减少1200亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量的最后一个障碍，牛津经济研究院经济学家莉迪亚·布苏尔(Lydia Boussour)表示。相反，市场正在寻找加息时机的线索。</blockquote> What would “decent” look like? A private payroll print of around 500,000 would easily pass the test, Boussour says. For that portion, economists polled by FactSet predict a gain of 470,000, up from 243,000 in August. Economists expect total nonfarm payrolls to have risen 480,000 last month after August’s disappointing 235,000.<blockquote>“体面”会是什么样子？Boussour说，大约50万份私人工资单很容易通过测试。FactSet调查的经济学家预测，这部分人将增加470,000人，高于8月份的243,000人。经济学家预计，继8月份令人失望的23.5万人之后，上个月非农就业总人数将增加48万人。</blockquote> There is one good, if tentative, signal that the headline nonfarm number will be stronger than expected. Continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 25 fell to the lowest level since March 2020 as enhanced unemployment benefits expired. (Though it is unclear whether the decline in those claims translates to a return to the workforce in time for the September payrolls survey week, conducted during the week that contains the 12th of the month.) A person need not be hired—just looking for work—to be counted in the labor force.<blockquote>有一个好的信号，尽管是试探性的，表明总体非农数据将强于预期。随着增强的失业救济金到期，截至9月25日当周的持续申请失业救济人数降至2020年3月以来的最低水平。（尽管尚不清楚这些申请失业救济人数的下降是否意味着劳动力在9月份就业调查周前及时回归，该调查是在包括该月12日在内的一周内进行的。）一个人不需要被雇佣——只是在找工作——就能被算作劳动力。</blockquote> “If one judges by the continued improvement in the weekly claims data, it’s possible that the 500k median forecast for September is too low,” says George Goncalves, head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG.&nbsp; He expects an upward revision to August reading, meaning a total of 1 million jobs could have been added in the past two months.<blockquote>三菱日联金融集团美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves表示：“如果从每周申请失业救济人数的持续改善来判断，9月份50万人的预测中值可能太低了。”他预计8月份的数据将向上修正，这意味着过去两个月总共可能增加100万个就业岗位。</blockquote> So what, then, would a “strong” report look like? Goncalves says around 700,000 in new hiring. “If we get that plus higher wages and improved hours worked, [it] could result in a spike [in Treasury yields] and a test for the buy-the-dip crowd,” he says.<blockquote>那么，一份“强有力”的报告会是什么样子呢？贡萨尔维斯表示，新员工约有70万人。他表示：“如果我们做到这一点，再加上更高的工资和更长的工作时间，[它]可能会导致[国债收益率]飙升，并对逢低买入人群进行考验。”</blockquote> As for the unemployment rate, strategists expect a further decline. Knapp notes that the Conference Board’s Labor Differential gauge is highly correlated with the U-3 and U-6 rates of unemployment and says it points to “significant downside” for those rates. Knapp expects to see the main U-3 rate slip to 4.3%, far below the consensus estimate of 5.1%. In August, that rate stood 5.2%. As for U-6, a more comprehensive measure that includes those marginally attached as well as part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment, Knapp sees a decline to 7.6% from 8.8% a month earlier.<blockquote>至于失业率，策略师预计将进一步下降。纳普指出，世界大型企业联合会的劳动力差异指标与U-3和U-6失业率高度相关，并表示这表明这些失业率存在“显着下行”。纳普预计主要U-3利率将下滑至4.3%，远低于市场普遍预期的5.1%。8月份，这一比率为5.2%。至于U-6，这是一项更全面的指标，包括那些边缘依恋者以及更喜欢全职工作的兼职工人，纳普预计这一比例将从一个月前的8.8%下降至7.6%。</blockquote> The labor force participation rate, which has barely budged in a year, likely ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 61.8% in September, says Boussour. An ongoing lack of labor supply—even if expiring unemployment benefits and the return of in-person school are starting to help–likely pushed wages higher during the month. Boussour forecasts a 0.4% gain in average hourly earnings, pushing the annual rate to 4.6% from 4.3% in August. The monthly gain, she says, will again be led by low-paid services industries as the recovery continues to lift demand for workers in industries most hit by the pandemic.<blockquote>Boussour表示，一年来几乎没有变化的劳动力参与率在9月份可能上升了十分之一个百分点，达到61.8%。劳动力供应的持续缺乏——即使即将到期的失业救济金和面对面学校的回归开始有所帮助——可能会推高本月的工资。Boussour预测平均时薪将增长0.4%，年率将从8月份的4.3%升至4.6%。她表示，随着经济复苏继续提振受疫情打击最严重的行业对工人的需求，月度增长将再次由低薪服务业引领。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September’s Jobs Report Is Coming. It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.<blockquote>9月份的就业报告即将发布。对投资者来说，好消息可能是坏消息。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember’s Jobs Report Is Coming. It May Be That Good News Is Bad for Investors.<blockquote>9月份的就业报告即将发布。对投资者来说，好消息可能是坏消息。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-10-08 14:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.<blockquote>期待已久的9月份就业报告即将下降。</blockquote> For months, economists and central bankers have said September is when millions of workers would re-enter the labor market, helping supply chains thaw and setting up an economy that is ready for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back emergency bond buying launched in response to the pandemic.<blockquote>几个月来，经济学家和央行行长一直表示，9月份将是数百万工人重新进入劳动力市场的时候，帮助供应链解冻，并建立一个经济，为美联储开始缩减为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买做好准备。</blockquote> The stock market pullback began when the Fed signaled a coming shift in policy, says Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics. He says the risk for investors is thus for a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number, with a strong report unlikely to be friendly for equity or bond markets.<blockquote>Ironsides Macroeconomics管理合伙人巴里·纳普(Barry Knapp)表示，当美联储发出即将转向政策时，股市就开始回调。他表示，因此投资者面临的风险是非农就业数据好于预期，强劲的报告不太可能对股票或债券市场有利。</blockquote> That’s not because of taper timing. Knapp, like many other strategists, says a November taper announcement is a foregone conclusion. To that point, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “set the bar very low,” saying a “decent” September jobs report would be enough to satisfy the last hurdle for a reduction in the $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, says Lydia Boussour, economist at Oxford Economics. Instead, markets are looking for clues around the timing of interest rate liftoff.<blockquote>这不是因为锥度时间。与许多其他策略师一样，纳普表示，11月宣布缩减规模已成定局。为此，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“将标准定得很低”，称一份“体面”的9月份就业报告足以满足每月减少1200亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量的最后一个障碍，牛津经济研究院经济学家莉迪亚·布苏尔(Lydia Boussour)表示。相反，市场正在寻找加息时机的线索。</blockquote> What would “decent” look like? A private payroll print of around 500,000 would easily pass the test, Boussour says. For that portion, economists polled by FactSet predict a gain of 470,000, up from 243,000 in August. Economists expect total nonfarm payrolls to have risen 480,000 last month after August’s disappointing 235,000.<blockquote>“体面”会是什么样子？Boussour说，大约50万份私人工资单很容易通过测试。FactSet调查的经济学家预测，这部分人将增加470,000人，高于8月份的243,000人。经济学家预计，继8月份令人失望的23.5万人之后，上个月非农就业总人数将增加48万人。</blockquote> There is one good, if tentative, signal that the headline nonfarm number will be stronger than expected. Continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 25 fell to the lowest level since March 2020 as enhanced unemployment benefits expired. (Though it is unclear whether the decline in those claims translates to a return to the workforce in time for the September payrolls survey week, conducted during the week that contains the 12th of the month.) A person need not be hired—just looking for work—to be counted in the labor force.<blockquote>有一个好的信号，尽管是试探性的，表明总体非农数据将强于预期。随着增强的失业救济金到期，截至9月25日当周的持续申请失业救济人数降至2020年3月以来的最低水平。（尽管尚不清楚这些申请失业救济人数的下降是否意味着劳动力在9月份就业调查周前及时回归，该调查是在包括该月12日在内的一周内进行的。）一个人不需要被雇佣——只是在找工作——就能被算作劳动力。</blockquote> “If one judges by the continued improvement in the weekly claims data, it’s possible that the 500k median forecast for September is too low,” says George Goncalves, head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG.&nbsp; He expects an upward revision to August reading, meaning a total of 1 million jobs could have been added in the past two months.<blockquote>三菱日联金融集团美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves表示：“如果从每周申请失业救济人数的持续改善来判断，9月份50万人的预测中值可能太低了。”他预计8月份的数据将向上修正，这意味着过去两个月总共可能增加100万个就业岗位。</blockquote> So what, then, would a “strong” report look like? Goncalves says around 700,000 in new hiring. “If we get that plus higher wages and improved hours worked, [it] could result in a spike [in Treasury yields] and a test for the buy-the-dip crowd,” he says.<blockquote>那么，一份“强有力”的报告会是什么样子呢？贡萨尔维斯表示，新员工约有70万人。他表示：“如果我们做到这一点，再加上更高的工资和更长的工作时间，[它]可能会导致[国债收益率]飙升，并对逢低买入人群进行考验。”</blockquote> As for the unemployment rate, strategists expect a further decline. Knapp notes that the Conference Board’s Labor Differential gauge is highly correlated with the U-3 and U-6 rates of unemployment and says it points to “significant downside” for those rates. Knapp expects to see the main U-3 rate slip to 4.3%, far below the consensus estimate of 5.1%. In August, that rate stood 5.2%. As for U-6, a more comprehensive measure that includes those marginally attached as well as part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment, Knapp sees a decline to 7.6% from 8.8% a month earlier.<blockquote>至于失业率，策略师预计将进一步下降。纳普指出，世界大型企业联合会的劳动力差异指标与U-3和U-6失业率高度相关，并表示这表明这些失业率存在“显着下行”。纳普预计主要U-3利率将下滑至4.3%，远低于市场普遍预期的5.1%。8月份，这一比率为5.2%。至于U-6，这是一项更全面的指标，包括那些边缘依恋者以及更喜欢全职工作的兼职工人，纳普预计这一比例将从一个月前的8.8%下降至7.6%。</blockquote> The labor force participation rate, which has barely budged in a year, likely ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 61.8% in September, says Boussour. An ongoing lack of labor supply—even if expiring unemployment benefits and the return of in-person school are starting to help–likely pushed wages higher during the month. Boussour forecasts a 0.4% gain in average hourly earnings, pushing the annual rate to 4.6% from 4.3% in August. The monthly gain, she says, will again be led by low-paid services industries as the recovery continues to lift demand for workers in industries most hit by the pandemic.<blockquote>Boussour表示，一年来几乎没有变化的劳动力参与率在9月份可能上升了十分之一个百分点，达到61.8%。劳动力供应的持续缺乏——即使即将到期的失业救济金和面对面学校的回归开始有所帮助——可能会推高本月的工资。Boussour预测平均时薪将增长0.4%，年率将从8月份的4.3%升至4.6%。她表示，随着经济复苏继续提振受疫情打击最严重的行业对工人的需求，月度增长将再次由低薪服务业引领。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-jobs-report-51633642185?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-jobs-report-51633642185?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132662434","content_text":"The long-awaited September jobs report is about to drop.\nFor months, economists and central bankers have said September is when millions of workers would re-enter the labor market, helping supply chains thaw and setting up an economy that is ready for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back emergency bond buying launched in response to the pandemic.\nThe stock market pullback began when the Fed signaled a coming shift in policy, says Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics. He says the risk for investors is thus for a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number, with a strong report unlikely to be friendly for equity or bond markets.\nThat’s not because of taper timing. Knapp, like many other strategists, says a November taper announcement is a foregone conclusion. To that point, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “set the bar very low,” saying a “decent” September jobs report would be enough to satisfy the last hurdle for a reduction in the $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, says Lydia Boussour, economist at Oxford Economics. Instead, markets are looking for clues around the timing of interest rate liftoff.\nWhat would “decent” look like? A private payroll print of around 500,000 would easily pass the test, Boussour says. For that portion, economists polled by FactSet predict a gain of 470,000, up from 243,000 in August. Economists expect total nonfarm payrolls to have risen 480,000 last month after August’s disappointing 235,000.\nThere is one good, if tentative, signal that the headline nonfarm number will be stronger than expected. Continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 25 fell to the lowest level since March 2020 as enhanced unemployment benefits expired. (Though it is unclear whether the decline in those claims translates to a return to the workforce in time for the September payrolls survey week, conducted during the week that contains the 12th of the month.) A person need not be hired—just looking for work—to be counted in the labor force.\n“If one judges by the continued improvement in the weekly claims data, it’s possible that the 500k median forecast for September is too low,” says George Goncalves, head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG.  He expects an upward revision to August reading, meaning a total of 1 million jobs could have been added in the past two months.\nSo what, then, would a “strong” report look like? Goncalves says around 700,000 in new hiring. “If we get that plus higher wages and improved hours worked, [it] could result in a spike [in Treasury yields] and a test for the buy-the-dip crowd,” he says.\nAs for the unemployment rate, strategists expect a further decline. Knapp notes that the Conference Board’s Labor Differential gauge is highly correlated with the U-3 and U-6 rates of unemployment and says it points to “significant downside” for those rates. Knapp expects to see the main U-3 rate slip to 4.3%, far below the consensus estimate of 5.1%. In August, that rate stood 5.2%. As for U-6, a more comprehensive measure that includes those marginally attached as well as part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment, Knapp sees a decline to 7.6% from 8.8% a month earlier.\nThe labor force participation rate, which has barely budged in a year, likely ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 61.8% in September, says Boussour. An ongoing lack of labor supply—even if expiring unemployment benefits and the return of in-person school are starting to help–likely pushed wages higher during the month. Boussour forecasts a 0.4% gain in average hourly earnings, pushing the annual rate to 4.6% from 4.3% in August. The monthly gain, she says, will again be led by low-paid services industries as the recovery continues to lift demand for workers in industries most hit by the pandemic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821066739"}