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2021-10-08

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Airbnb: Good Prospects Jeopardized By High Expectations<blockquote>爱彼迎：高期望危及良好前景</blockquote>

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Airbnb will be penalized severely if it underdelivers.</li> <li>Despite the long-term prospects, Airbnb isn’t the company for me today. I see better risk-reward elsewhere.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f89e4405d20534ffb04abe21c93360\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">hocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>尽管面临财务困境，但爱彼迎走出疫情的长期前景比疫情时更加光明。</li><li>现在，随着疫情措施的重新开放和放松，爱彼迎将看到前所未有的需求。</li><li>近期周期性波动收益似乎反映在华尔街预期和公司估值上。如果爱彼迎交付不足，将受到严厉处罚。</li><li>尽管有长远的前景，但爱彼迎并不是我今天最喜欢的公司。我在其他地方看到了更好的风险回报。</li></ul>hocus-focus/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Airbnb(NASDAQ:ABNB)was a pandemic winner from a long-term perspective. The company will see unprecedented demand over the coming months. It also benefits from secular long-term tailwinds. To cap it all off, it has clear and concrete verticals that it could easily tap to generate new revenue streams.<blockquote>从长期角度来看，爱彼迎（纳斯达克股票代码：ABNB）是大流行的赢家。未来几个月，该公司将面临前所未有的需求。它还受益于长期的顺风。最重要的是，它拥有清晰具体的垂直领域，可以轻松地利用这些领域来产生新的收入来源。</blockquote> However, expectations seem to have factored all of these benefits in. The near-term revenue estimates are high and have gotten higher as the reopening picture became clearer. The company's multiple is higher than both industry peers and category leaders, implying high expectations of the future. High expectations and high valuations open the door to large drawdowns from likely disappointments.<blockquote>然而，预期似乎已经考虑到了所有这些好处。近期收入预期很高，并且随着重新开放的前景变得更加明朗，收入预期还会更高。该公司的市盈率高于行业同行和品类领导者，意味着对未来的高期望。高期望和高估值为可能令人失望的大幅提款打开了大门。</blockquote> Putting it all together, risks outweigh the rewards for me as I see better reopening plays elsewhere.<blockquote>总而言之，对我来说，风险大于回报，因为我看到其他地方有更好的重新开放。</blockquote> Airbnb is a Reopening Winner Boosted by the Pandemic<blockquote>受疫情推动，爱彼迎成为重新开放的赢家</blockquote> Accommodation providers were among the worst-hit losers of the pandemic. Lockdowns forced people to stay at home. Even without lockdowns, most borders were closed. And even with open borders, people were fearing the virus and didn’t travel. This unprecedented halt in demand truly tested the resiliency of the sector.<blockquote>住宿提供商是疫情受影响最严重的输家之一。封锁迫使人们呆在家里。即使没有封锁，大多数边境也是关闭的。即使边境开放，人们也害怕病毒，不敢出行。这种前所未有的需求停滞真正考验了该行业的弹性。</blockquote> Airbnb, though, managed to capitalize on the pandemic both in the short and long term. Alternate accommodation benefited from closed borders and the inability and risk of long-distance travel as well as from social distancing. Many consumers opted for nearby vacation homes where they could get to safely and didn’t need to interact with other guests or hotel staff. Airbnb, as the leading alternate accommodation player, benefited. Airbnb used 2021 to improve itself and grow its sector. It&nbsp;announced in early 2021&nbsp;that it was going to educate the world about Airbnb, recruit more hosts, simplify the guest journey, and deliver world-class service. The plan seems to be working as evident in Airbnb’s revenue recovery. The company’s 2021 Q2 revenues were more than the most recent pre-pandemic data point of 2019 Q4 and this is extraordinary given the performance of Airbnb’s peers (all peers significantly below pre-pandemic levels, chart below). The shift to alternate accommodation arising from extraordinary factors was free advertising for Airbnb. Many people that had tried or would not try Airbnb were pushed into being a customer. Those that have had good experiences are likely to return. Airbnb’s pandemic struggles will result in long-term gains thanks to good crisis management.<blockquote>然而，爱彼迎设法在短期和长期内利用了疫情。替代住宿受益于关闭的边境、长途旅行的能力和风险以及社会距离。许多消费者选择了附近的度假屋，在那里他们可以安全到达，不需要与其他客人或酒店工作人员互动。爱彼迎作为领先的替代住宿参与者，从中受益。爱彼迎利用2021年改善自己并发展其行业。它在2021年初宣布，它将向世界普及爱彼迎，招募更多的主持人，简化客人旅程，并提供世界一流的服务。该计划似乎在爱彼迎的收入复苏中显而易见。该公司 2021 年第二季度的收入超过了 2019 年第四季度大流行前的最新数据点，考虑到爱彼迎同行的表现（所有同行均大大低于大流行前的水平，如下图所示），这是非同寻常的。由特殊因素引起的向替代住宿的转变对爱彼迎来说是免费的广告。许多尝试过或不想尝试爱彼迎的人被迫成为顾客。那些有过良好经历的人可能会回来。由于良好的危机管理，爱彼迎在大流行病方面的斗争将带来长期收益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bb3fa959db14ded964a37401dc9632\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> The next leg of the pandemic is an unwind of what we’ve seen so far. With vaccination rates rising in the West and case counts inflecting lower, reopening awaits us. The reopening will see massive growth in travel. Consumers have been forced indoors for a year and a half and will make up for the lost time. The pent-up demand combined with the unused vacation days and unspent hotel points and airline miles will boost the travel industry over the coming months.<blockquote>大流行病的下一阶段是对我们迄今为止所看到的情况的放松。随着西方疫苗接种率的上升和病例数的下降，重新开放正等待着我们。重新开放将见证旅游业的大规模增长。消费者被迫在室内呆了一年半，会弥补失去的时间。被压抑的需求加上未使用的假期天数以及未使用的酒店积分和航空里程将在未来几个月推动旅游业的发展。</blockquote> Overall spending budgets will be boosted by high accumulated savings. Social distancing has dramatically decreased in-person discretionary spending, while massive government aid increased disposable incomes to bring the&nbsp;personal savings rate to all-time highs. These savings will melt towards discretionary purchases in the coming months and one of the wallet share winners will be travel.<blockquote>高累积储蓄将提高总体支出预算。社交距离大幅减少了个人可自由支配支出，而大规模的政府援助增加了可支配收入，使个人储蓄率达到历史最高水平。这些储蓄将在未来几个月内用于非必需品购买，而旅行将是钱包份额的赢家之一。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a628b854734591ce062c9c245a9201cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Airbnb is well-positioned to capitalize on the reopening. The company is aware of the potential and its “single priority for 2021 has been to prepare for the travel rebound”. Many consumers will still be afraid of catching the virus despite potentially low case counts and vaccination. Additionally, a significant portion of pre-pandemic hotel preferers will opt for Airbnb. Airbnb will gain a large portion of the larger reopening wallet share. The pandemic-induced habit of using Airbnb will likely linger in the reopening.<blockquote>爱彼迎处于有利地位，可以利用重新开放。该公司意识到了这一潜力，“2021 年的唯一首要任务就是为旅游业反弹做好准备”。尽管病例数和疫苗接种可能很低，但许多消费者仍然害怕感染病毒。此外，很大一部分疫情前的酒店爱好者将选择爱彼迎。爱彼迎将获得更大的重新开放钱包份额的很大一部分。疫情引发的使用爱彼迎的习惯可能会在重新开放时挥之不去。</blockquote> Airbnb will not only be one of the key, but also one of the first beneficiaries of the reopening. Airbnb had a major city and cross-border travel focus before the pandemic of&nbsp;about 50% of revenue. The company’s supply depends on hosts and hosts are in major cities. People traveling to new countries want to see landmark cities. Tourism towards major cities is disproportionally dependent on international travel. Luckily for Airbnb, major cities where we’ve seen the worst of the pandemic and international travel, especially within the West (Airbnb makes ~80% of revenues from North America and EU) will be among the earlier areas to open.<blockquote>爱彼迎将不仅是关键之一，也是重新开放的首批受益者之一。在疫情之前，爱彼迎有一个主要的城市和跨境旅游重点，约占收入的50%。该公司的供应取决于主机，而主机位于各大城市。去新国家旅行的人想看看地标性的城市。前往主要城市的旅游业过度依赖国际旅行。对爱彼迎来说幸运的是，我们目睹了大流行病和国际旅行最严重的大城市，尤其是西部地区（爱彼迎约 80% 的收入来自北美和欧盟），将是较早开放的地区之一。</blockquote> One worries whether the supply is a constraint for the reopening as the number of hosts and lodging could be a limiting factor given unprecedented coming demand. But this is unlikely an issue as Airbnb has been growing its supply over the past two years&nbsp;while nights and experiences booked fell. Again, management is aware of the travel rebound and is doing its best to monetize it. While hotels may not be able to work at full capacity due to government mandate and won’t be able to build new rooms, excess capacity will be available at Airbnb as demand comes.<blockquote>人们担心供应是否会成为重新开放的限制因素，因为考虑到前所未有的需求，主机和住宿的数量可能是一个限制因素。但这不太可能是一个问题，因为爱彼迎在过去两年中一直在增加供应，而预订的住宿和体验却在下降。同样，管理层意识到了旅游业的反弹，并正在尽最大努力将其货币化。虽然由于政府的规定，酒店可能无法满负荷运营，也无法建造新的客房，但随着需求的增加，爱彼迎将有多余的客房。</blockquote> Overall, despite being hurt financially by the pandemic, Airbnb is a hidden pandemic winner with long-term gains. The company is well situated to be a winner over the short term as well by capitalizing on the upcoming extraordinary travel demand.<blockquote>总体而言，尽管受到疫情的经济损失，但爱彼迎是一个隐藏的疫情赢家，并获得了长期收益。通过利用即将到来的非凡旅行需求，该公司也有能力在短期内成为赢家。</blockquote> Airbnb Will be a More Profitable Company Going Forward<blockquote>爱彼迎未来将成为一家更有利可图的公司</blockquote> Airbnb became a leaner company throughout the pandemic. The company cut 1,900 jobs or&nbsp;25% of its workforce&nbsp;during the crisis and&nbsp;halted most non-essential spending. These cost-cutting measures should remain sticky and boost long-term profitability. Airbnb may face lower acquisition costs out of the pandemic as well. Brand value of Airbnb grew to become a household name. The company’s services will be the go-to place for travel bookings for many consumers. This will result in lower costs paid to third parties to acquire traffic. The street expects 23% EBITDA margins from the company in 2023, which is much higher than what we’ve seen so far and closer to peers. Airbnb will be more profitable thanks to the pandemic.<blockquote>爱彼迎在整个疫情成为一家更精简的公司。危机期间，该公司裁员 1,900 人，占员工总数的 25%，并停止了大部分非必要支出。这些削减成本的措施应该会保持粘性，并提高长期盈利能力。爱彼迎在疫情之外也可能面临较低的收购成本。爱彼迎的品牌价值逐渐成为家喻户晓的名字。该公司的服务将成为许多消费者旅行预订的首选。这将降低支付给第三方获取流量的成本。华尔街预计该公司 2023 年的 EBITDA 利润率为 23%，远高于我们目前看到的水平，也更接近同行。得益于疫情，爱彼迎的利润将会更高。</blockquote> The Reopening Benefit is Expected<blockquote>重新开放的好处是预期的</blockquote> Reopening winners are a key focus for me in the coming months. I see a lot of alpha in buying winners where consensus is lacking behind. This is a good risk-reward trade for me due to the near-term time horizon and the specific catalyst.<blockquote>在接下来的几个月里，重新开放赢家是我的一个重点。我在购买缺乏共识的赢家方面看到了很多阿尔法。由于近期时间范围和特定的催化剂，这对我来说是一个很好的风险回报交易。</blockquote> Unfortunately, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be what I’m looking for. If we look at consensus expectations of Airbnb we see that they reflect what I explained above. The market increased Airbnb revenue estimates with expectations of a recovery. Revenue estimates for FY22 increased by 20% since last December. I say increased with expectations of recovery due to the front-load of revisions. The rate of positive revisions declines as further out the estimates go (charts below).<blockquote>不幸的是，爱彼迎似乎不是我想要的。如果我们看看爱彼迎的共识期望，我们会发现它们反映了我上面解释的内容。市场提高了对爱彼迎收入的预期，预期会复苏。自去年 12 月以来，2022 财年的收入预期增长了 20%。我说，由于修订的前期负荷，随着复苏的预期而增加。随着估计的进一步进行，积极修正的比率会下降（下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad3d3c8df5d1b861b36eee38bee10f5\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"104\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8564e09b5c2d77f0ad0e2db50b29144\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c6b27f9bf316f8d16b667576fc3d21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcebffd8c9af4c6d1d63655c454f9c99\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ</blockquote> Consensus isn’t getting sandbagged here as well. Some companies manage Street expectations by setting the bar low to anchor analyst estimates and then over-deliver, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be one of those companies currently. Analysts were expecting 20% more revenue than the $1.65 bn Airbnb guided towards at the time of guidance and are up to 24% currently for Q3. This is a much larger gap than one would normally see and shows the high expectations of Airbnb.<blockquote>共识在这里也没有被打包。有些公司通过设定较低的门槛来锚定分析师的预期，然后超额交付来管理华尔街的预期，爱彼迎目前似乎并不在其中。分析师预计爱彼迎的收入将比指导时的 16.5 亿美元高出 20%，目前第三季度的收入将高达 24%。这比人们通常看到的差距要大得多，显示了人们对爱彼迎的高期望。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e454f555a0b0ff085397cfddf30380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"173\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ</blockquote> The consensus is aggressive. All the upward revisions have resulted in revenue expectations that are 35%, 80%, and 120% higher than what Airbnb achieved in the last twelve months for FY22, FY23, and FY24 respectively. Airbnb could of course deliver, it is perfectly situated to deliver amazing quarters, but it isn’t the reopening play for me. I see better risk-reward in other reopening winners with much easier bars to clear (see my articles on&nbsp;Ulta(NASDAQ:ULTA),Revolve(NYSE:RVLV), and&nbsp;Square(NYSE:SQ)).<blockquote>共识是激进的。所有上调导致 Airbnb 在过去 12 个月中实现的 22 财年、2023财年和 24 财年的收入预期分别高出 35%、80% 和 120%。爱彼迎当然可以表现出色，它完全有能力表现出色，但对我来说，这并不是重新开场的比赛。我在其他重新开放的赢家身上看到了更好的风险回报，并且更容易清除酒吧（请参阅我关于 Ulta（纳斯达克股票代码：ULTA）、Revolve（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RVLV）和 Square（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）的文章）。</blockquote> Airbnb Price is High<blockquote>爱彼迎价格高</blockquote> If Airbnb has depressed multiples, it could deliver even if it falls short of consensus estimates. Conversely, high multiples mean high confidence in future growth and are a broad reflection of positive sentiment. Positive sentiment is generally a disadvantage as it's much easier to turn a positive sentiment neutral or negative with an earnings miss than it is to turn it even more positive with a blowout quarter.<blockquote>如果爱彼迎降低了市盈率，即使低于市场普遍预期，它也可能实现盈利。相反，高倍数意味着对未来增长的高信心，是积极情绪的广泛反映。积极情绪通常是一个劣势，因为在盈利低迷的情况下将积极情绪转变为中性或负面，比在井喷的季度将其转变为更加积极要容易得多。</blockquote> I want to judge Airbnb’s valuation as fairly as possible. The market values future growth for a name like Airbnb, which I agree with. I factor in future growth by looking at multiples over CY23 revenues and the speed of growth between CY20 and CY23 in my comparison. Bulls also like to separate Airbnb from its peers as a category leader, which I don’t agree with. It may be not the same as a hotel, but it sure is a substitute in the eyes of the consumer in the overwhelming majority of cases (for now at least). But I will also compare its multiples and growth expectations to other category leaders to give it the benefit of the doubt.<blockquote>我想尽可能公平地判断爱彼迎的估值。市场看重爱彼迎这样的名字的未来增长，我同意这一点。在我的比较中，我通过观察 23 财年收入的倍数以及 20 财年和 23 财年之间的增长速度来考虑未来的增长。公牛队还喜欢将爱彼迎与同行区分开来，成为该类别的领导者，我不同意这种观点。它可能和酒店不一样，但在绝大多数情况下（至少现在是这样），在消费者眼中，它肯定是一种替代品。但我也会将其倍数和增长预期与其他类别领导者进行比较，以确信其无罪。</blockquote> The valuation is rich. For me, Booking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG)is a good comparison. Booking also is a travel marketplace with fast growth and a bright future. One might say that Booking is also richly priced as it is well above its peers, but Airbnb is on another level trading at more than double where Booking is despite having similar growth expectations. Booking is more profitable, having EBITDA margins of 14% vs. extremely negative margins of Airbnb (-64%), and is expected to remain significantly more profitable into the future with 37% FY23 expected EBITDA margins vs. 23% for Airbnb. Let’s not forget that rest of these companies are well situated to benefit from the reopening as well, perhaps even more so than Airbnb with hotels gaining back lost share.<blockquote>估值丰富。对我来说，Booking Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是一个很好的比较。预订也是一个快速增长、前景光明的旅游市场。有人可能会说，Booking 的定价也很高，因为它远高于同行，但尽管有类似的增长预期，但爱彼迎的交易价格是 Booking 的两倍多。Booking 的利润更高，EBITDA 利润率为 14%，而 Airbnb 的利润率为极低 (-64%)，预计未来利润仍将明显更高，2023财年预计 EBITDA 利润率为 37%，而 Airbnb 为 23%。我们不要忘记，这些公司中的其他公司也有能力从重新开业中受益，甚至可能比爱彼迎的酒店夺回失去的份额还要多。</blockquote> Sector leader comparison is kinder, but still yields the same result. Here we have DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)as the closest peer in terms of multiples, but is still significantly less expensive despite having a similar growth rate. Uber(NYSE:UBER)for example is another name that will benefit from the reopening due to its mobility and sharing focus, is trading grossly cheaper than Airbnb, while expected to grow at a similar rate.<blockquote>行业领导者的比较更友好，但仍然产生相同的结果。就倍数而言，我们将 DoorDash（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DASH）视为最接近的同行，但尽管增长率相似，但价格仍然要低得多。例如，优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）是另一个因其移动性和共享重点而将从重新开放中受益的品牌，其交易价格远低于爱彼迎，但预计将以类似的速度增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5704bdc5cf32c4889f12fceb24245303\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> Airbnb is expected to trade much richer than the sector for a long time. I went and looked at when Airbnb’s extremely high multiples would compress enough to reach those of its peers thinking that the higher growth would bring them down quickly. This isn’t the case. With the current enterprise value and consensus, Airbnb will reach Booking’s next twelve-month revenue and EBITDA multiples in 5 years and earnings multiples in 7. Again, let’s not forget that Booking is also growing fast and will also compress its multiples. I see that Airbnb has clearer options to add new revenue streams but a lot of this is clearly in the price today.<blockquote>预计在很长一段时间内，爱彼迎的贸易将比该行业丰富得多。我去看了看，爱彼迎极高的市盈率何时会压缩到足以让那些认为更高的增长会让他们迅速下跌的同行感受到。事实并非如此。凭借目前的企业价值和共识，爱彼迎将在 5 年内达到 Booking 未来 12 个月的收入和 EBITDA 倍数，在 7 年内达到盈利倍数。同样，我们不要忘记，预订量也在快速增长，同时也会压缩其倍数。我看到爱彼迎有更明确的选择来增加新的收入来源，但其中很多显然已经包含在今天的价格中。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce82fbe26634b44aeb8417204b1ebda\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> Overall, I see poor risk-reward for the reopening bull thesis of Airbnb. Expectations factor in maybe not all but a good portion of outperformance over the near term. The valuation is high and has a lot of expectations built in. This makes the stock price vulnerable to changes in near-term sentiment despite the long-term nature of these expectations.<blockquote>总体而言，我认为爱彼迎重新开放牛市论点的风险回报很低。预期可能不是短期内表现优异的全部因素，而是很大一部分因素。估值很高，内置了很多预期。这使得股价容易受到近期情绪变化的影响，尽管这些预期具有长期性。</blockquote> Interest Rate Sensitivity<blockquote>利率敏感性</blockquote> Airbnb is vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. I wrote before on my views on the future of rates and the vulnerability of the growth complex in depth (hereandhere). I expect a bear steepener environment over the coming months, that is rising rates accompanied by a steepening curve. This, if correct, would result in a higher discount factor via a higher risk-free rate. A high risk-free rate will have an outsized effect on fast growth equities with far-out cash flows. Airbnb is amongst the longest duration names with a price to sales multiple of 23x. A higher discount rate would dramatically change the company valuation and, in theory, decrease the stock price.<blockquote>爱彼迎容易受到宏观经济风险的影响。我之前写过我对利率未来和增长复合体脆弱性的看法（这里和这里）。我预计未来几个月熊市环境将更加陡峭，即利率上升伴随着曲线陡峭。如果这是正确的，这将通过更高的无风险利率导致更高的贴现率。高无风险利率将对现金流丰富的快速增长股票产生巨大影响。爱彼迎是持续时间最长的公司之一，市销率为 23 倍。较高的贴现率将极大地改变公司估值，理论上会降低股价。</blockquote> Excellent Prospects for the Long Term<blockquote>长期前景良好</blockquote> Despite my unattraction for the near term, Airbnb has a lot going for it. Just the shift from hotels to alternative accommodations alone should boost growth for many years to come. The company is at the beginning of its journey of gaining a significant share out of the massive global lodging market. In addition to this, Airbnb has a lot of initiatives that it can take to create new revenue streams.<blockquote>尽管我对近期没有吸引力，但爱彼迎有很多优势。仅仅从酒店到替代住宿的转变就应该会在未来许多年内促进增长。该公司正处于从庞大的全球住宿市场获得重要份额的旅程的开始。除此之外，爱彼迎还可以采取许多举措来创造新的收入来源。</blockquote> The easiest of these are short-term rentals. By short I mean longer than vacation stay, so from about a couple of weeks to a year or so. This is an underserved market for which there is a lot of demand. Expats, project-focused business travelers, students especially ones studying abroad, interns, and long vacationers are all target markets for such a product. It’d be easy for Airbnb to add services in this category as well, as it already has the supply and the marketing capabilities. I expect longer-term rentals to become an important category for Airbnb in the future.<blockquote>其中最简单的是短期租赁。简而言之，我的意思是比假期停留时间更长，所以从大约几周到一年左右。这是一个服务不足的市场，需求很大。外籍人士、注重项目的商务旅行者、学生尤其是出国留学的学生、实习生和长假者都是这种产品的目标市场。爱彼迎也很容易增加这一类别的服务，因为它已经具备了供应和营销能力。我预计未来长期租赁将成为爱彼迎的一个重要类别。</blockquote> Airbnb could gain a larger share of value by integrating upstream. Airbnb could host or co-host. It has demand data and financial capabilities which would make it a great investor in properties. Airbnb-hosted properties would resemble private label products sold in chain supermarkets, or on Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)for that matter. I doubt that the company would prioritize this as it may push current hosts away, but I’d be surprised if Airbnb didn’t delve into hosting in the future.<blockquote>爱彼迎可以通过上游整合获得更大的价值份额。爱彼迎可以主办或共同主办。它拥有需求数据和财务能力，这将使它成为房地产的伟大投资者。爱彼迎托管的房产类似于连锁超市或亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）上销售的自有品牌产品。我怀疑该公司是否会优先考虑这一点，因为这可能会把现有的主机推开，但如果爱彼迎未来不深入研究主机业务，我会感到惊讶。</blockquote> Airbnb could begin to sell ancillary services. Airbnb could provide cleaning services with its own cleaning crew. Cleaning is a necessity before every booking and could significantly increase monetization. Airbnb could also provide insurance for hosts. One of the main worries of people thinking of becoming hosts is damage to or loss of property. Airbnb has a lot of data on claims and could provide insurance to hosts with an efficient actuary. An insurance offer would also increase the supply of properties as well with more hosts joining the platform.<blockquote>爱彼迎可以开始销售辅助服务。爱彼迎可以用自己的清洁人员提供清洁服务。每次预订前清洁都是必要的，可以大大增加货币化。爱彼迎还可以为主机提供保险。考虑成为房东的人们的主要担忧之一是财产损失或损坏。爱彼迎有很多关于索赔的数据，可以通过高效的精算师为主机提供保险。随着更多的主机加入该平台，保险优惠也将增加房产的供应。</blockquote> There are a lot of growth levers that Airbnb could pull but I expect none in the near term. Airbnb has all of its focus on capitalizing on the travel rebound and with 25% fewer employees due to cost cuts it’s unlikely to add new products soon.<blockquote>爱彼迎可以拉动很多增长杠杆，但我预计短期内不会有任何增长杠杆。爱彼迎的全部精力都放在了利用旅游业的反弹上，由于成本削减，员工人数减少了 25%，因此不太可能很快增加新产品。</blockquote> Overall the Risk-Reward isn’t Favorable For Me (Today)<blockquote>总体而言，风险回报对我不利（今天）</blockquote> I like Airbnb’s operations, track record, and near and short-term prospects. It’s done very well navigating through choppy times and took advantage of the pandemic with agility. I expect Airbnb to see tremendous growth over the near term and to gain a growing share of the hospitality market over the long term.<blockquote>我喜欢爱彼迎的运营、业绩记录以及近期和短期前景。它很好地度过了动荡时期，并敏捷地利用了大流行病。我预计爱彼迎将在短期内实现巨大增长，并在长期内获得越来越大的酒店市场份额。</blockquote> However, my expectations of Airbnb seem to be reflected in Street estimates and the company’s valuation. I see high execution risk and a large potential downwards stock reaction to any disappointments but capped upside unless we see blowout quarters. Thus, I am on the sidelines on Airbnb for now.<blockquote>不过，我对爱彼迎的期望似乎反映在华尔街的估值和公司的估值中。我认为执行风险很高，股票对任何失望都会有很大的潜在下跌反应，但除非我们看到井喷季度，否则上涨空间是有限的。因此，我现在对爱彼迎持观望态度。</blockquote> How I Could be Wrong Either Way<blockquote>我怎么会错呢</blockquote> I always want to give the entire picture in my analysis and in this section, I will try to provide how the stock price could meaningfully move higher or lower from areas I haven’t covered in the article.<blockquote>我总是想在我的分析中给出全貌，在本节中，我将尝试提供股价如何从我在文章中没有涉及的领域有意义地走高或走低。</blockquote> The consumer preference between hotels vs. alternate accommodation highly influences Airbnb. The pandemic saw the latter win. It is reasonable to expect an unwind of this trend. I didn’t mention this in my article as I think it will be gradual and the high upcoming demand will overcome the micro move. But my assumption could be wrong, consumers could overwhelmingly prefer hotels which would make life very difficult for Airbnb. Conversely, pandemic choices could remain sticky and Airbnb could keep its pandemic era gains. Consumer preferences of style of stay will be highly decisive for Airbnb in the future.<blockquote>消费者对酒店和其他住宿的偏好极大地影响了爱彼迎。疫情看到了后者的胜利。有理由预期这一趋势会放缓。我在文章中没有提到这一点，因为我认为这将是一个渐进的过程，即将到来的高需求将战胜微观变动。但我的假设可能是错误的，消费者可能会压倒性地更喜欢酒店，这将使爱彼迎的生活变得非常困难。相反，大流行的选择可能仍然具有粘性，爱彼迎可能会保持其大流行时代的收益。消费者对住宿方式的偏好将对未来的爱彼迎起到决定性作用。</blockquote> The macroeconomic picture will be another deciding factor. A better than expected reopening demand will be a tide lifts all boats situation, while a subdued one would wreak havoc in the hospitality industry. A prolonged pandemic, especially in a situation with less government aid, would also significantly harm Airbnb prospects. I mentioned that I expected a rising rate environment and that Airbnb valuation would be harmed by it, the vice versa of what I wrote is true. Airbnb would greatly benefit from falling rates all else equal.<blockquote>宏观经济形势将是另一个决定性因素。好于预期的重新开放需求将是一个提振所有船只的潮汐，而一个被抑制的需求将在酒店业造成严重破坏。长期的疫情，尤其是在政府援助减少的情况下，也将严重损害爱彼迎的前景。我提到，我预计利率环境会上升，爱彼迎估值会受到损害，我所写的恰恰相反。在其他条件相同的情况下，爱彼迎将从利率下降中受益匪浅。</blockquote> Profitability will be an area to watch coming out of the pandemic. I already mentioned higher margins going forward. But these margins are still significantly below what is expected of peers (consensus EBITDA margins for CY23: Airbnb 23% vs. TripAdvisor(NASDAQ:TRIP)33%, Booking Holdings 37%). Airbnb could deliver on the upside in an environment of excess demand. Moreover, the low traffic acquisition costs I wrote about may not be in the consensus and could provide an upside. Conversely, some job cuts may have been premature and/or crisis management, and Airbnb could need to regrow its workforce contracting margins back down.<blockquote>盈利能力将是疫情后一个值得关注的领域。我已经提到了未来更高的利润率。但这些利润率仍远低于同行的预期（2023 财年共识 EBITDA 利润率：爱彼迎 23%，TripAdvisor（纳斯达克股票代码：TRIP）33%，Booking Holdings 37%）。在需求过剩的环境下，爱彼迎可以实现上行。此外，我所写的低流量获取成本可能不在共识范围内，但可能会带来好处。相反，一些裁员可能是过早的和/或危机管理，爱彼迎可能需要重新增加其劳动力合同利润率。</blockquote> Despite unlikely with the management’s reopening focus and reduced headcount, if Airbnb manages to launch one of the products I’ve mentioned, it will likely be met with a positive reaction. A new revenue stream will cause analysts to reevaluate long-term growth expectations and increase revenue estimates.<blockquote>尽管管理层不太可能重新开业并减少员工人数，但如果爱彼迎能够推出我提到的产品之一，很可能会得到积极的反响。新的收入流将导致分析师重新评估长期增长预期并提高收入预期。</blockquote> Let’s not forget about the big risk facing Airbnb, regulation. A lot of cities were pressured to impose regulations on Airbnb pre-pandemic. Regulatory risks clout the future and uncertainty is always a big negative for investors. These issues resurfacing, despite the outcome, could hamper Airbnb stock.<blockquote>我们不要忘记爱彼迎面临的巨大风险--监管。在疫情之前，许多城市都面临着对爱彼迎实施监管的压力。监管风险影响未来，不确定性对投资者来说始终是一大负面影响。不管结果如何，这些问题重新浮出水面，可能会阻碍爱彼迎股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb: Good Prospects Jeopardized By High Expectations<blockquote>爱彼迎：高期望危及良好前景</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb: Good Prospects Jeopardized By High Expectations<blockquote>爱彼迎：高期望危及良好前景</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 13:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Despite the financial struggles, Airbnb is coming out of the pandemic with brighter long-term prospects than how it went in.</li> <li>Now, with the reopening and unwind of pandemic measures, Airbnb will see unprecedented demand.</li> <li>Near-term cyclical swing benefits seem to be reflected in Street expectations and company valuation. Airbnb will be penalized severely if it underdelivers.</li> <li>Despite the long-term prospects, Airbnb isn’t the company for me today. I see better risk-reward elsewhere.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f89e4405d20534ffb04abe21c93360\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">hocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>尽管面临财务困境，但爱彼迎走出疫情的长期前景比疫情时更加光明。</li><li>现在，随着疫情措施的重新开放和放松，爱彼迎将看到前所未有的需求。</li><li>近期周期性波动收益似乎反映在华尔街预期和公司估值上。如果爱彼迎交付不足，将受到严厉处罚。</li><li>尽管有长远的前景，但爱彼迎并不是我今天最喜欢的公司。我在其他地方看到了更好的风险回报。</li></ul>hocus-focus/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Airbnb(NASDAQ:ABNB)was a pandemic winner from a long-term perspective. The company will see unprecedented demand over the coming months. It also benefits from secular long-term tailwinds. To cap it all off, it has clear and concrete verticals that it could easily tap to generate new revenue streams.<blockquote>从长期角度来看，爱彼迎（纳斯达克股票代码：ABNB）是大流行的赢家。未来几个月，该公司将面临前所未有的需求。它还受益于长期的顺风。最重要的是，它拥有清晰具体的垂直领域，可以轻松地利用这些领域来产生新的收入来源。</blockquote> However, expectations seem to have factored all of these benefits in. The near-term revenue estimates are high and have gotten higher as the reopening picture became clearer. The company's multiple is higher than both industry peers and category leaders, implying high expectations of the future. High expectations and high valuations open the door to large drawdowns from likely disappointments.<blockquote>然而，预期似乎已经考虑到了所有这些好处。近期收入预期很高，并且随着重新开放的前景变得更加明朗，收入预期还会更高。该公司的市盈率高于行业同行和品类领导者，意味着对未来的高期望。高期望和高估值为可能令人失望的大幅提款打开了大门。</blockquote> Putting it all together, risks outweigh the rewards for me as I see better reopening plays elsewhere.<blockquote>总而言之，对我来说，风险大于回报，因为我看到其他地方有更好的重新开放。</blockquote> Airbnb is a Reopening Winner Boosted by the Pandemic<blockquote>受疫情推动，爱彼迎成为重新开放的赢家</blockquote> Accommodation providers were among the worst-hit losers of the pandemic. Lockdowns forced people to stay at home. Even without lockdowns, most borders were closed. And even with open borders, people were fearing the virus and didn’t travel. This unprecedented halt in demand truly tested the resiliency of the sector.<blockquote>住宿提供商是疫情受影响最严重的输家之一。封锁迫使人们呆在家里。即使没有封锁，大多数边境也是关闭的。即使边境开放，人们也害怕病毒，不敢出行。这种前所未有的需求停滞真正考验了该行业的弹性。</blockquote> Airbnb, though, managed to capitalize on the pandemic both in the short and long term. Alternate accommodation benefited from closed borders and the inability and risk of long-distance travel as well as from social distancing. Many consumers opted for nearby vacation homes where they could get to safely and didn’t need to interact with other guests or hotel staff. Airbnb, as the leading alternate accommodation player, benefited. Airbnb used 2021 to improve itself and grow its sector. It&nbsp;announced in early 2021&nbsp;that it was going to educate the world about Airbnb, recruit more hosts, simplify the guest journey, and deliver world-class service. The plan seems to be working as evident in Airbnb’s revenue recovery. The company’s 2021 Q2 revenues were more than the most recent pre-pandemic data point of 2019 Q4 and this is extraordinary given the performance of Airbnb’s peers (all peers significantly below pre-pandemic levels, chart below). The shift to alternate accommodation arising from extraordinary factors was free advertising for Airbnb. Many people that had tried or would not try Airbnb were pushed into being a customer. Those that have had good experiences are likely to return. Airbnb’s pandemic struggles will result in long-term gains thanks to good crisis management.<blockquote>然而，爱彼迎设法在短期和长期内利用了疫情。替代住宿受益于关闭的边境、长途旅行的能力和风险以及社会距离。许多消费者选择了附近的度假屋，在那里他们可以安全到达，不需要与其他客人或酒店工作人员互动。爱彼迎作为领先的替代住宿参与者，从中受益。爱彼迎利用2021年改善自己并发展其行业。它在2021年初宣布，它将向世界普及爱彼迎，招募更多的主持人，简化客人旅程，并提供世界一流的服务。该计划似乎在爱彼迎的收入复苏中显而易见。该公司 2021 年第二季度的收入超过了 2019 年第四季度大流行前的最新数据点，考虑到爱彼迎同行的表现（所有同行均大大低于大流行前的水平，如下图所示），这是非同寻常的。由特殊因素引起的向替代住宿的转变对爱彼迎来说是免费的广告。许多尝试过或不想尝试爱彼迎的人被迫成为顾客。那些有过良好经历的人可能会回来。由于良好的危机管理，爱彼迎在大流行病方面的斗争将带来长期收益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bb3fa959db14ded964a37401dc9632\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> The next leg of the pandemic is an unwind of what we’ve seen so far. With vaccination rates rising in the West and case counts inflecting lower, reopening awaits us. The reopening will see massive growth in travel. Consumers have been forced indoors for a year and a half and will make up for the lost time. The pent-up demand combined with the unused vacation days and unspent hotel points and airline miles will boost the travel industry over the coming months.<blockquote>大流行病的下一阶段是对我们迄今为止所看到的情况的放松。随着西方疫苗接种率的上升和病例数的下降，重新开放正等待着我们。重新开放将见证旅游业的大规模增长。消费者被迫在室内呆了一年半，会弥补失去的时间。被压抑的需求加上未使用的假期天数以及未使用的酒店积分和航空里程将在未来几个月推动旅游业的发展。</blockquote> Overall spending budgets will be boosted by high accumulated savings. Social distancing has dramatically decreased in-person discretionary spending, while massive government aid increased disposable incomes to bring the&nbsp;personal savings rate to all-time highs. These savings will melt towards discretionary purchases in the coming months and one of the wallet share winners will be travel.<blockquote>高累积储蓄将提高总体支出预算。社交距离大幅减少了个人可自由支配支出，而大规模的政府援助增加了可支配收入，使个人储蓄率达到历史最高水平。这些储蓄将在未来几个月内用于非必需品购买，而旅行将是钱包份额的赢家之一。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a628b854734591ce062c9c245a9201cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Airbnb is well-positioned to capitalize on the reopening. The company is aware of the potential and its “single priority for 2021 has been to prepare for the travel rebound”. Many consumers will still be afraid of catching the virus despite potentially low case counts and vaccination. Additionally, a significant portion of pre-pandemic hotel preferers will opt for Airbnb. Airbnb will gain a large portion of the larger reopening wallet share. The pandemic-induced habit of using Airbnb will likely linger in the reopening.<blockquote>爱彼迎处于有利地位，可以利用重新开放。该公司意识到了这一潜力，“2021 年的唯一首要任务就是为旅游业反弹做好准备”。尽管病例数和疫苗接种可能很低，但许多消费者仍然害怕感染病毒。此外，很大一部分疫情前的酒店爱好者将选择爱彼迎。爱彼迎将获得更大的重新开放钱包份额的很大一部分。疫情引发的使用爱彼迎的习惯可能会在重新开放时挥之不去。</blockquote> Airbnb will not only be one of the key, but also one of the first beneficiaries of the reopening. Airbnb had a major city and cross-border travel focus before the pandemic of&nbsp;about 50% of revenue. The company’s supply depends on hosts and hosts are in major cities. People traveling to new countries want to see landmark cities. Tourism towards major cities is disproportionally dependent on international travel. Luckily for Airbnb, major cities where we’ve seen the worst of the pandemic and international travel, especially within the West (Airbnb makes ~80% of revenues from North America and EU) will be among the earlier areas to open.<blockquote>爱彼迎将不仅是关键之一，也是重新开放的首批受益者之一。在疫情之前，爱彼迎有一个主要的城市和跨境旅游重点，约占收入的50%。该公司的供应取决于主机，而主机位于各大城市。去新国家旅行的人想看看地标性的城市。前往主要城市的旅游业过度依赖国际旅行。对爱彼迎来说幸运的是，我们目睹了大流行病和国际旅行最严重的大城市，尤其是西部地区（爱彼迎约 80% 的收入来自北美和欧盟），将是较早开放的地区之一。</blockquote> One worries whether the supply is a constraint for the reopening as the number of hosts and lodging could be a limiting factor given unprecedented coming demand. But this is unlikely an issue as Airbnb has been growing its supply over the past two years&nbsp;while nights and experiences booked fell. Again, management is aware of the travel rebound and is doing its best to monetize it. While hotels may not be able to work at full capacity due to government mandate and won’t be able to build new rooms, excess capacity will be available at Airbnb as demand comes.<blockquote>人们担心供应是否会成为重新开放的限制因素，因为考虑到前所未有的需求，主机和住宿的数量可能是一个限制因素。但这不太可能是一个问题，因为爱彼迎在过去两年中一直在增加供应，而预订的住宿和体验却在下降。同样，管理层意识到了旅游业的反弹，并正在尽最大努力将其货币化。虽然由于政府的规定，酒店可能无法满负荷运营，也无法建造新的客房，但随着需求的增加，爱彼迎将有多余的客房。</blockquote> Overall, despite being hurt financially by the pandemic, Airbnb is a hidden pandemic winner with long-term gains. The company is well situated to be a winner over the short term as well by capitalizing on the upcoming extraordinary travel demand.<blockquote>总体而言，尽管受到疫情的经济损失，但爱彼迎是一个隐藏的疫情赢家，并获得了长期收益。通过利用即将到来的非凡旅行需求，该公司也有能力在短期内成为赢家。</blockquote> Airbnb Will be a More Profitable Company Going Forward<blockquote>爱彼迎未来将成为一家更有利可图的公司</blockquote> Airbnb became a leaner company throughout the pandemic. The company cut 1,900 jobs or&nbsp;25% of its workforce&nbsp;during the crisis and&nbsp;halted most non-essential spending. These cost-cutting measures should remain sticky and boost long-term profitability. Airbnb may face lower acquisition costs out of the pandemic as well. Brand value of Airbnb grew to become a household name. The company’s services will be the go-to place for travel bookings for many consumers. This will result in lower costs paid to third parties to acquire traffic. The street expects 23% EBITDA margins from the company in 2023, which is much higher than what we’ve seen so far and closer to peers. Airbnb will be more profitable thanks to the pandemic.<blockquote>爱彼迎在整个疫情成为一家更精简的公司。危机期间，该公司裁员 1,900 人，占员工总数的 25%，并停止了大部分非必要支出。这些削减成本的措施应该会保持粘性，并提高长期盈利能力。爱彼迎在疫情之外也可能面临较低的收购成本。爱彼迎的品牌价值逐渐成为家喻户晓的名字。该公司的服务将成为许多消费者旅行预订的首选。这将降低支付给第三方获取流量的成本。华尔街预计该公司 2023 年的 EBITDA 利润率为 23%，远高于我们目前看到的水平，也更接近同行。得益于疫情，爱彼迎的利润将会更高。</blockquote> The Reopening Benefit is Expected<blockquote>重新开放的好处是预期的</blockquote> Reopening winners are a key focus for me in the coming months. I see a lot of alpha in buying winners where consensus is lacking behind. This is a good risk-reward trade for me due to the near-term time horizon and the specific catalyst.<blockquote>在接下来的几个月里，重新开放赢家是我的一个重点。我在购买缺乏共识的赢家方面看到了很多阿尔法。由于近期时间范围和特定的催化剂，这对我来说是一个很好的风险回报交易。</blockquote> Unfortunately, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be what I’m looking for. If we look at consensus expectations of Airbnb we see that they reflect what I explained above. The market increased Airbnb revenue estimates with expectations of a recovery. Revenue estimates for FY22 increased by 20% since last December. I say increased with expectations of recovery due to the front-load of revisions. The rate of positive revisions declines as further out the estimates go (charts below).<blockquote>不幸的是，爱彼迎似乎不是我想要的。如果我们看看爱彼迎的共识期望，我们会发现它们反映了我上面解释的内容。市场提高了对爱彼迎收入的预期，预期会复苏。自去年 12 月以来，2022 财年的收入预期增长了 20%。我说，由于修订的前期负荷，随着复苏的预期而增加。随着估计的进一步进行，积极修正的比率会下降（下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad3d3c8df5d1b861b36eee38bee10f5\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"104\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8564e09b5c2d77f0ad0e2db50b29144\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c6b27f9bf316f8d16b667576fc3d21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcebffd8c9af4c6d1d63655c454f9c99\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ</blockquote> Consensus isn’t getting sandbagged here as well. Some companies manage Street expectations by setting the bar low to anchor analyst estimates and then over-deliver, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be one of those companies currently. Analysts were expecting 20% more revenue than the $1.65 bn Airbnb guided towards at the time of guidance and are up to 24% currently for Q3. This is a much larger gap than one would normally see and shows the high expectations of Airbnb.<blockquote>共识在这里也没有被打包。有些公司通过设定较低的门槛来锚定分析师的预期，然后超额交付来管理华尔街的预期，爱彼迎目前似乎并不在其中。分析师预计爱彼迎的收入将比指导时的 16.5 亿美元高出 20%，目前第三季度的收入将高达 24%。这比人们通常看到的差距要大得多，显示了人们对爱彼迎的高期望。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6e454f555a0b0ff085397cfddf30380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"173\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ</blockquote> The consensus is aggressive. All the upward revisions have resulted in revenue expectations that are 35%, 80%, and 120% higher than what Airbnb achieved in the last twelve months for FY22, FY23, and FY24 respectively. Airbnb could of course deliver, it is perfectly situated to deliver amazing quarters, but it isn’t the reopening play for me. I see better risk-reward in other reopening winners with much easier bars to clear (see my articles on&nbsp;Ulta(NASDAQ:ULTA),Revolve(NYSE:RVLV), and&nbsp;Square(NYSE:SQ)).<blockquote>共识是激进的。所有上调导致 Airbnb 在过去 12 个月中实现的 22 财年、2023财年和 24 财年的收入预期分别高出 35%、80% 和 120%。爱彼迎当然可以表现出色，它完全有能力表现出色，但对我来说，这并不是重新开场的比赛。我在其他重新开放的赢家身上看到了更好的风险回报，并且更容易清除酒吧（请参阅我关于 Ulta（纳斯达克股票代码：ULTA）、Revolve（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RVLV）和 Square（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）的文章）。</blockquote> Airbnb Price is High<blockquote>爱彼迎价格高</blockquote> If Airbnb has depressed multiples, it could deliver even if it falls short of consensus estimates. Conversely, high multiples mean high confidence in future growth and are a broad reflection of positive sentiment. Positive sentiment is generally a disadvantage as it's much easier to turn a positive sentiment neutral or negative with an earnings miss than it is to turn it even more positive with a blowout quarter.<blockquote>如果爱彼迎降低了市盈率，即使低于市场普遍预期，它也可能实现盈利。相反，高倍数意味着对未来增长的高信心，是积极情绪的广泛反映。积极情绪通常是一个劣势，因为在盈利低迷的情况下将积极情绪转变为中性或负面，比在井喷的季度将其转变为更加积极要容易得多。</blockquote> I want to judge Airbnb’s valuation as fairly as possible. The market values future growth for a name like Airbnb, which I agree with. I factor in future growth by looking at multiples over CY23 revenues and the speed of growth between CY20 and CY23 in my comparison. Bulls also like to separate Airbnb from its peers as a category leader, which I don’t agree with. It may be not the same as a hotel, but it sure is a substitute in the eyes of the consumer in the overwhelming majority of cases (for now at least). But I will also compare its multiples and growth expectations to other category leaders to give it the benefit of the doubt.<blockquote>我想尽可能公平地判断爱彼迎的估值。市场看重爱彼迎这样的名字的未来增长，我同意这一点。在我的比较中，我通过观察 23 财年收入的倍数以及 20 财年和 23 财年之间的增长速度来考虑未来的增长。公牛队还喜欢将爱彼迎与同行区分开来，成为该类别的领导者，我不同意这种观点。它可能和酒店不一样，但在绝大多数情况下（至少现在是这样），在消费者眼中，它肯定是一种替代品。但我也会将其倍数和增长预期与其他类别领导者进行比较，以确信其无罪。</blockquote> The valuation is rich. For me, Booking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG)is a good comparison. Booking also is a travel marketplace with fast growth and a bright future. One might say that Booking is also richly priced as it is well above its peers, but Airbnb is on another level trading at more than double where Booking is despite having similar growth expectations. Booking is more profitable, having EBITDA margins of 14% vs. extremely negative margins of Airbnb (-64%), and is expected to remain significantly more profitable into the future with 37% FY23 expected EBITDA margins vs. 23% for Airbnb. Let’s not forget that rest of these companies are well situated to benefit from the reopening as well, perhaps even more so than Airbnb with hotels gaining back lost share.<blockquote>估值丰富。对我来说，Booking Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是一个很好的比较。预订也是一个快速增长、前景光明的旅游市场。有人可能会说，Booking 的定价也很高，因为它远高于同行，但尽管有类似的增长预期，但爱彼迎的交易价格是 Booking 的两倍多。Booking 的利润更高，EBITDA 利润率为 14%，而 Airbnb 的利润率为极低 (-64%)，预计未来利润仍将明显更高，2023财年预计 EBITDA 利润率为 37%，而 Airbnb 为 23%。我们不要忘记，这些公司中的其他公司也有能力从重新开业中受益，甚至可能比爱彼迎的酒店夺回失去的份额还要多。</blockquote> Sector leader comparison is kinder, but still yields the same result. Here we have DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)as the closest peer in terms of multiples, but is still significantly less expensive despite having a similar growth rate. Uber(NYSE:UBER)for example is another name that will benefit from the reopening due to its mobility and sharing focus, is trading grossly cheaper than Airbnb, while expected to grow at a similar rate.<blockquote>行业领导者的比较更友好，但仍然产生相同的结果。就倍数而言，我们将 DoorDash（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DASH）视为最接近的同行，但尽管增长率相似，但价格仍然要低得多。例如，优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）是另一个因其移动性和共享重点而将从重新开放中受益的品牌，其交易价格远低于爱彼迎，但预计将以类似的速度增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5704bdc5cf32c4889f12fceb24245303\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> Airbnb is expected to trade much richer than the sector for a long time. I went and looked at when Airbnb’s extremely high multiples would compress enough to reach those of its peers thinking that the higher growth would bring them down quickly. This isn’t the case. With the current enterprise value and consensus, Airbnb will reach Booking’s next twelve-month revenue and EBITDA multiples in 5 years and earnings multiples in 7. Again, let’s not forget that Booking is also growing fast and will also compress its multiples. I see that Airbnb has clearer options to add new revenue streams but a lot of this is clearly in the price today.<blockquote>预计在很长一段时间内，爱彼迎的贸易将比该行业丰富得多。我去看了看，爱彼迎极高的市盈率何时会压缩到足以让那些认为更高的增长会让他们迅速下跌的同行感受到。事实并非如此。凭借目前的企业价值和共识，爱彼迎将在 5 年内达到 Booking 未来 12 个月的收入和 EBITDA 倍数，在 7 年内达到盈利倍数。同样，我们不要忘记，预订量也在快速增长，同时也会压缩其倍数。我看到爱彼迎有更明确的选择来增加新的收入来源，但其中很多显然已经包含在今天的价格中。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce82fbe26634b44aeb8417204b1ebda\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CapitalIQ, author analysis<blockquote>资料来源：CapitalIQ，作者分析</blockquote> Overall, I see poor risk-reward for the reopening bull thesis of Airbnb. Expectations factor in maybe not all but a good portion of outperformance over the near term. The valuation is high and has a lot of expectations built in. This makes the stock price vulnerable to changes in near-term sentiment despite the long-term nature of these expectations.<blockquote>总体而言，我认为爱彼迎重新开放牛市论点的风险回报很低。预期可能不是短期内表现优异的全部因素，而是很大一部分因素。估值很高，内置了很多预期。这使得股价容易受到近期情绪变化的影响，尽管这些预期具有长期性。</blockquote> Interest Rate Sensitivity<blockquote>利率敏感性</blockquote> Airbnb is vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. I wrote before on my views on the future of rates and the vulnerability of the growth complex in depth (hereandhere). I expect a bear steepener environment over the coming months, that is rising rates accompanied by a steepening curve. This, if correct, would result in a higher discount factor via a higher risk-free rate. A high risk-free rate will have an outsized effect on fast growth equities with far-out cash flows. Airbnb is amongst the longest duration names with a price to sales multiple of 23x. A higher discount rate would dramatically change the company valuation and, in theory, decrease the stock price.<blockquote>爱彼迎容易受到宏观经济风险的影响。我之前写过我对利率未来和增长复合体脆弱性的看法（这里和这里）。我预计未来几个月熊市环境将更加陡峭，即利率上升伴随着曲线陡峭。如果这是正确的，这将通过更高的无风险利率导致更高的贴现率。高无风险利率将对现金流丰富的快速增长股票产生巨大影响。爱彼迎是持续时间最长的公司之一，市销率为 23 倍。较高的贴现率将极大地改变公司估值，理论上会降低股价。</blockquote> Excellent Prospects for the Long Term<blockquote>长期前景良好</blockquote> Despite my unattraction for the near term, Airbnb has a lot going for it. Just the shift from hotels to alternative accommodations alone should boost growth for many years to come. The company is at the beginning of its journey of gaining a significant share out of the massive global lodging market. In addition to this, Airbnb has a lot of initiatives that it can take to create new revenue streams.<blockquote>尽管我对近期没有吸引力，但爱彼迎有很多优势。仅仅从酒店到替代住宿的转变就应该会在未来许多年内促进增长。该公司正处于从庞大的全球住宿市场获得重要份额的旅程的开始。除此之外，爱彼迎还可以采取许多举措来创造新的收入来源。</blockquote> The easiest of these are short-term rentals. By short I mean longer than vacation stay, so from about a couple of weeks to a year or so. This is an underserved market for which there is a lot of demand. Expats, project-focused business travelers, students especially ones studying abroad, interns, and long vacationers are all target markets for such a product. It’d be easy for Airbnb to add services in this category as well, as it already has the supply and the marketing capabilities. I expect longer-term rentals to become an important category for Airbnb in the future.<blockquote>其中最简单的是短期租赁。简而言之，我的意思是比假期停留时间更长，所以从大约几周到一年左右。这是一个服务不足的市场，需求很大。外籍人士、注重项目的商务旅行者、学生尤其是出国留学的学生、实习生和长假者都是这种产品的目标市场。爱彼迎也很容易增加这一类别的服务，因为它已经具备了供应和营销能力。我预计未来长期租赁将成为爱彼迎的一个重要类别。</blockquote> Airbnb could gain a larger share of value by integrating upstream. Airbnb could host or co-host. It has demand data and financial capabilities which would make it a great investor in properties. Airbnb-hosted properties would resemble private label products sold in chain supermarkets, or on Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)for that matter. I doubt that the company would prioritize this as it may push current hosts away, but I’d be surprised if Airbnb didn’t delve into hosting in the future.<blockquote>爱彼迎可以通过上游整合获得更大的价值份额。爱彼迎可以主办或共同主办。它拥有需求数据和财务能力，这将使它成为房地产的伟大投资者。爱彼迎托管的房产类似于连锁超市或亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）上销售的自有品牌产品。我怀疑该公司是否会优先考虑这一点，因为这可能会把现有的主机推开，但如果爱彼迎未来不深入研究主机业务，我会感到惊讶。</blockquote> Airbnb could begin to sell ancillary services. Airbnb could provide cleaning services with its own cleaning crew. Cleaning is a necessity before every booking and could significantly increase monetization. Airbnb could also provide insurance for hosts. One of the main worries of people thinking of becoming hosts is damage to or loss of property. Airbnb has a lot of data on claims and could provide insurance to hosts with an efficient actuary. An insurance offer would also increase the supply of properties as well with more hosts joining the platform.<blockquote>爱彼迎可以开始销售辅助服务。爱彼迎可以用自己的清洁人员提供清洁服务。每次预订前清洁都是必要的，可以大大增加货币化。爱彼迎还可以为主机提供保险。考虑成为房东的人们的主要担忧之一是财产损失或损坏。爱彼迎有很多关于索赔的数据，可以通过高效的精算师为主机提供保险。随着更多的主机加入该平台，保险优惠也将增加房产的供应。</blockquote> There are a lot of growth levers that Airbnb could pull but I expect none in the near term. Airbnb has all of its focus on capitalizing on the travel rebound and with 25% fewer employees due to cost cuts it’s unlikely to add new products soon.<blockquote>爱彼迎可以拉动很多增长杠杆，但我预计短期内不会有任何增长杠杆。爱彼迎的全部精力都放在了利用旅游业的反弹上，由于成本削减，员工人数减少了 25%，因此不太可能很快增加新产品。</blockquote> Overall the Risk-Reward isn’t Favorable For Me (Today)<blockquote>总体而言，风险回报对我不利（今天）</blockquote> I like Airbnb’s operations, track record, and near and short-term prospects. It’s done very well navigating through choppy times and took advantage of the pandemic with agility. I expect Airbnb to see tremendous growth over the near term and to gain a growing share of the hospitality market over the long term.<blockquote>我喜欢爱彼迎的运营、业绩记录以及近期和短期前景。它很好地度过了动荡时期，并敏捷地利用了大流行病。我预计爱彼迎将在短期内实现巨大增长，并在长期内获得越来越大的酒店市场份额。</blockquote> However, my expectations of Airbnb seem to be reflected in Street estimates and the company’s valuation. I see high execution risk and a large potential downwards stock reaction to any disappointments but capped upside unless we see blowout quarters. Thus, I am on the sidelines on Airbnb for now.<blockquote>不过，我对爱彼迎的期望似乎反映在华尔街的估值和公司的估值中。我认为执行风险很高，股票对任何失望都会有很大的潜在下跌反应，但除非我们看到井喷季度，否则上涨空间是有限的。因此，我现在对爱彼迎持观望态度。</blockquote> How I Could be Wrong Either Way<blockquote>我怎么会错呢</blockquote> I always want to give the entire picture in my analysis and in this section, I will try to provide how the stock price could meaningfully move higher or lower from areas I haven’t covered in the article.<blockquote>我总是想在我的分析中给出全貌，在本节中，我将尝试提供股价如何从我在文章中没有涉及的领域有意义地走高或走低。</blockquote> The consumer preference between hotels vs. alternate accommodation highly influences Airbnb. The pandemic saw the latter win. It is reasonable to expect an unwind of this trend. I didn’t mention this in my article as I think it will be gradual and the high upcoming demand will overcome the micro move. But my assumption could be wrong, consumers could overwhelmingly prefer hotels which would make life very difficult for Airbnb. Conversely, pandemic choices could remain sticky and Airbnb could keep its pandemic era gains. Consumer preferences of style of stay will be highly decisive for Airbnb in the future.<blockquote>消费者对酒店和其他住宿的偏好极大地影响了爱彼迎。疫情看到了后者的胜利。有理由预期这一趋势会放缓。我在文章中没有提到这一点，因为我认为这将是一个渐进的过程，即将到来的高需求将战胜微观变动。但我的假设可能是错误的，消费者可能会压倒性地更喜欢酒店，这将使爱彼迎的生活变得非常困难。相反，大流行的选择可能仍然具有粘性，爱彼迎可能会保持其大流行时代的收益。消费者对住宿方式的偏好将对未来的爱彼迎起到决定性作用。</blockquote> The macroeconomic picture will be another deciding factor. A better than expected reopening demand will be a tide lifts all boats situation, while a subdued one would wreak havoc in the hospitality industry. A prolonged pandemic, especially in a situation with less government aid, would also significantly harm Airbnb prospects. I mentioned that I expected a rising rate environment and that Airbnb valuation would be harmed by it, the vice versa of what I wrote is true. Airbnb would greatly benefit from falling rates all else equal.<blockquote>宏观经济形势将是另一个决定性因素。好于预期的重新开放需求将是一个提振所有船只的潮汐，而一个被抑制的需求将在酒店业造成严重破坏。长期的疫情，尤其是在政府援助减少的情况下，也将严重损害爱彼迎的前景。我提到，我预计利率环境会上升，爱彼迎估值会受到损害，我所写的恰恰相反。在其他条件相同的情况下，爱彼迎将从利率下降中受益匪浅。</blockquote> Profitability will be an area to watch coming out of the pandemic. I already mentioned higher margins going forward. But these margins are still significantly below what is expected of peers (consensus EBITDA margins for CY23: Airbnb 23% vs. TripAdvisor(NASDAQ:TRIP)33%, Booking Holdings 37%). Airbnb could deliver on the upside in an environment of excess demand. Moreover, the low traffic acquisition costs I wrote about may not be in the consensus and could provide an upside. Conversely, some job cuts may have been premature and/or crisis management, and Airbnb could need to regrow its workforce contracting margins back down.<blockquote>盈利能力将是疫情后一个值得关注的领域。我已经提到了未来更高的利润率。但这些利润率仍远低于同行的预期（2023 财年共识 EBITDA 利润率：爱彼迎 23%，TripAdvisor（纳斯达克股票代码：TRIP）33%，Booking Holdings 37%）。在需求过剩的环境下，爱彼迎可以实现上行。此外，我所写的低流量获取成本可能不在共识范围内，但可能会带来好处。相反，一些裁员可能是过早的和/或危机管理，爱彼迎可能需要重新增加其劳动力合同利润率。</blockquote> Despite unlikely with the management’s reopening focus and reduced headcount, if Airbnb manages to launch one of the products I’ve mentioned, it will likely be met with a positive reaction. A new revenue stream will cause analysts to reevaluate long-term growth expectations and increase revenue estimates.<blockquote>尽管管理层不太可能重新开业并减少员工人数，但如果爱彼迎能够推出我提到的产品之一，很可能会得到积极的反响。新的收入流将导致分析师重新评估长期增长预期并提高收入预期。</blockquote> Let’s not forget about the big risk facing Airbnb, regulation. A lot of cities were pressured to impose regulations on Airbnb pre-pandemic. Regulatory risks clout the future and uncertainty is always a big negative for investors. These issues resurfacing, despite the outcome, could hamper Airbnb stock.<blockquote>我们不要忘记爱彼迎面临的巨大风险--监管。在疫情之前，许多城市都面临着对爱彼迎实施监管的压力。监管风险影响未来，不确定性对投资者来说始终是一大负面影响。不管结果如何，这些问题重新浮出水面，可能会阻碍爱彼迎股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458951-airbnb-good-prospects-jeopardized-by-high-expectations\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458951-airbnb-good-prospects-jeopardized-by-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157362059","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite the financial struggles, Airbnb is coming out of the pandemic with brighter long-term prospects than how it went in.\nNow, with the reopening and unwind of pandemic measures, Airbnb will see unprecedented demand.\nNear-term cyclical swing benefits seem to be reflected in Street expectations and company valuation. Airbnb will be penalized severely if it underdelivers.\nDespite the long-term prospects, Airbnb isn’t the company for me today. I see better risk-reward elsewhere.\n\nhocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAirbnb(NASDAQ:ABNB)was a pandemic winner from a long-term perspective. The company will see unprecedented demand over the coming months. It also benefits from secular long-term tailwinds. To cap it all off, it has clear and concrete verticals that it could easily tap to generate new revenue streams.\nHowever, expectations seem to have factored all of these benefits in. The near-term revenue estimates are high and have gotten higher as the reopening picture became clearer. The company's multiple is higher than both industry peers and category leaders, implying high expectations of the future. High expectations and high valuations open the door to large drawdowns from likely disappointments.\nPutting it all together, risks outweigh the rewards for me as I see better reopening plays elsewhere.\nAirbnb is a Reopening Winner Boosted by the Pandemic\nAccommodation providers were among the worst-hit losers of the pandemic. Lockdowns forced people to stay at home. Even without lockdowns, most borders were closed. And even with open borders, people were fearing the virus and didn’t travel. This unprecedented halt in demand truly tested the resiliency of the sector.\nAirbnb, though, managed to capitalize on the pandemic both in the short and long term. Alternate accommodation benefited from closed borders and the inability and risk of long-distance travel as well as from social distancing. Many consumers opted for nearby vacation homes where they could get to safely and didn’t need to interact with other guests or hotel staff. Airbnb, as the leading alternate accommodation player, benefited. Airbnb used 2021 to improve itself and grow its sector. It announced in early 2021 that it was going to educate the world about Airbnb, recruit more hosts, simplify the guest journey, and deliver world-class service. The plan seems to be working as evident in Airbnb’s revenue recovery. The company’s 2021 Q2 revenues were more than the most recent pre-pandemic data point of 2019 Q4 and this is extraordinary given the performance of Airbnb’s peers (all peers significantly below pre-pandemic levels, chart below). The shift to alternate accommodation arising from extraordinary factors was free advertising for Airbnb. Many people that had tried or would not try Airbnb were pushed into being a customer. Those that have had good experiences are likely to return. Airbnb’s pandemic struggles will result in long-term gains thanks to good crisis management.\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\nThe next leg of the pandemic is an unwind of what we’ve seen so far. With vaccination rates rising in the West and case counts inflecting lower, reopening awaits us. The reopening will see massive growth in travel. Consumers have been forced indoors for a year and a half and will make up for the lost time. The pent-up demand combined with the unused vacation days and unspent hotel points and airline miles will boost the travel industry over the coming months.\nOverall spending budgets will be boosted by high accumulated savings. Social distancing has dramatically decreased in-person discretionary spending, while massive government aid increased disposable incomes to bring the personal savings rate to all-time highs. These savings will melt towards discretionary purchases in the coming months and one of the wallet share winners will be travel.\n\nAirbnb is well-positioned to capitalize on the reopening. The company is aware of the potential and its “single priority for 2021 has been to prepare for the travel rebound”. Many consumers will still be afraid of catching the virus despite potentially low case counts and vaccination. Additionally, a significant portion of pre-pandemic hotel preferers will opt for Airbnb. Airbnb will gain a large portion of the larger reopening wallet share. The pandemic-induced habit of using Airbnb will likely linger in the reopening.\nAirbnb will not only be one of the key, but also one of the first beneficiaries of the reopening. Airbnb had a major city and cross-border travel focus before the pandemic of about 50% of revenue. The company’s supply depends on hosts and hosts are in major cities. People traveling to new countries want to see landmark cities. Tourism towards major cities is disproportionally dependent on international travel. Luckily for Airbnb, major cities where we’ve seen the worst of the pandemic and international travel, especially within the West (Airbnb makes ~80% of revenues from North America and EU) will be among the earlier areas to open.\nOne worries whether the supply is a constraint for the reopening as the number of hosts and lodging could be a limiting factor given unprecedented coming demand. But this is unlikely an issue as Airbnb has been growing its supply over the past two years while nights and experiences booked fell. Again, management is aware of the travel rebound and is doing its best to monetize it. While hotels may not be able to work at full capacity due to government mandate and won’t be able to build new rooms, excess capacity will be available at Airbnb as demand comes.\nOverall, despite being hurt financially by the pandemic, Airbnb is a hidden pandemic winner with long-term gains. The company is well situated to be a winner over the short term as well by capitalizing on the upcoming extraordinary travel demand.\nAirbnb Will be a More Profitable Company Going Forward\nAirbnb became a leaner company throughout the pandemic. The company cut 1,900 jobs or 25% of its workforce during the crisis and halted most non-essential spending. These cost-cutting measures should remain sticky and boost long-term profitability. Airbnb may face lower acquisition costs out of the pandemic as well. Brand value of Airbnb grew to become a household name. The company’s services will be the go-to place for travel bookings for many consumers. This will result in lower costs paid to third parties to acquire traffic. The street expects 23% EBITDA margins from the company in 2023, which is much higher than what we’ve seen so far and closer to peers. Airbnb will be more profitable thanks to the pandemic.\nThe Reopening Benefit is Expected\nReopening winners are a key focus for me in the coming months. I see a lot of alpha in buying winners where consensus is lacking behind. This is a good risk-reward trade for me due to the near-term time horizon and the specific catalyst.\nUnfortunately, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be what I’m looking for. If we look at consensus expectations of Airbnb we see that they reflect what I explained above. The market increased Airbnb revenue estimates with expectations of a recovery. Revenue estimates for FY22 increased by 20% since last December. I say increased with expectations of recovery due to the front-load of revisions. The rate of positive revisions declines as further out the estimates go (charts below).\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\n\nSource: CapitalIQ\nConsensus isn’t getting sandbagged here as well. Some companies manage Street expectations by setting the bar low to anchor analyst estimates and then over-deliver, Airbnb doesn’t seem to be one of those companies currently. Analysts were expecting 20% more revenue than the $1.65 bn Airbnb guided towards at the time of guidance and are up to 24% currently for Q3. This is a much larger gap than one would normally see and shows the high expectations of Airbnb.\nSource: CapitalIQ\nThe consensus is aggressive. All the upward revisions have resulted in revenue expectations that are 35%, 80%, and 120% higher than what Airbnb achieved in the last twelve months for FY22, FY23, and FY24 respectively. Airbnb could of course deliver, it is perfectly situated to deliver amazing quarters, but it isn’t the reopening play for me. I see better risk-reward in other reopening winners with much easier bars to clear (see my articles on Ulta(NASDAQ:ULTA),Revolve(NYSE:RVLV), and Square(NYSE:SQ)).\nAirbnb Price is High\nIf Airbnb has depressed multiples, it could deliver even if it falls short of consensus estimates. Conversely, high multiples mean high confidence in future growth and are a broad reflection of positive sentiment. Positive sentiment is generally a disadvantage as it's much easier to turn a positive sentiment neutral or negative with an earnings miss than it is to turn it even more positive with a blowout quarter.\nI want to judge Airbnb’s valuation as fairly as possible. The market values future growth for a name like Airbnb, which I agree with. I factor in future growth by looking at multiples over CY23 revenues and the speed of growth between CY20 and CY23 in my comparison. Bulls also like to separate Airbnb from its peers as a category leader, which I don’t agree with. It may be not the same as a hotel, but it sure is a substitute in the eyes of the consumer in the overwhelming majority of cases (for now at least). But I will also compare its multiples and growth expectations to other category leaders to give it the benefit of the doubt.\nThe valuation is rich. For me, Booking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG)is a good comparison. Booking also is a travel marketplace with fast growth and a bright future. One might say that Booking is also richly priced as it is well above its peers, but Airbnb is on another level trading at more than double where Booking is despite having similar growth expectations. Booking is more profitable, having EBITDA margins of 14% vs. extremely negative margins of Airbnb (-64%), and is expected to remain significantly more profitable into the future with 37% FY23 expected EBITDA margins vs. 23% for Airbnb. Let’s not forget that rest of these companies are well situated to benefit from the reopening as well, perhaps even more so than Airbnb with hotels gaining back lost share.\nSector leader comparison is kinder, but still yields the same result. Here we have DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)as the closest peer in terms of multiples, but is still significantly less expensive despite having a similar growth rate. Uber(NYSE:UBER)for example is another name that will benefit from the reopening due to its mobility and sharing focus, is trading grossly cheaper than Airbnb, while expected to grow at a similar rate.\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\nAirbnb is expected to trade much richer than the sector for a long time. I went and looked at when Airbnb’s extremely high multiples would compress enough to reach those of its peers thinking that the higher growth would bring them down quickly. This isn’t the case. With the current enterprise value and consensus, Airbnb will reach Booking’s next twelve-month revenue and EBITDA multiples in 5 years and earnings multiples in 7. Again, let’s not forget that Booking is also growing fast and will also compress its multiples. I see that Airbnb has clearer options to add new revenue streams but a lot of this is clearly in the price today.\nSource: CapitalIQ, author analysis\nOverall, I see poor risk-reward for the reopening bull thesis of Airbnb. Expectations factor in maybe not all but a good portion of outperformance over the near term. The valuation is high and has a lot of expectations built in. This makes the stock price vulnerable to changes in near-term sentiment despite the long-term nature of these expectations.\nInterest Rate Sensitivity\nAirbnb is vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. I wrote before on my views on the future of rates and the vulnerability of the growth complex in depth (hereandhere). I expect a bear steepener environment over the coming months, that is rising rates accompanied by a steepening curve. This, if correct, would result in a higher discount factor via a higher risk-free rate. A high risk-free rate will have an outsized effect on fast growth equities with far-out cash flows. Airbnb is amongst the longest duration names with a price to sales multiple of 23x. A higher discount rate would dramatically change the company valuation and, in theory, decrease the stock price.\nExcellent Prospects for the Long Term\nDespite my unattraction for the near term, Airbnb has a lot going for it. Just the shift from hotels to alternative accommodations alone should boost growth for many years to come. The company is at the beginning of its journey of gaining a significant share out of the massive global lodging market. In addition to this, Airbnb has a lot of initiatives that it can take to create new revenue streams.\nThe easiest of these are short-term rentals. By short I mean longer than vacation stay, so from about a couple of weeks to a year or so. This is an underserved market for which there is a lot of demand. Expats, project-focused business travelers, students especially ones studying abroad, interns, and long vacationers are all target markets for such a product. It’d be easy for Airbnb to add services in this category as well, as it already has the supply and the marketing capabilities. I expect longer-term rentals to become an important category for Airbnb in the future.\nAirbnb could gain a larger share of value by integrating upstream. Airbnb could host or co-host. It has demand data and financial capabilities which would make it a great investor in properties. Airbnb-hosted properties would resemble private label products sold in chain supermarkets, or on Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)for that matter. I doubt that the company would prioritize this as it may push current hosts away, but I’d be surprised if Airbnb didn’t delve into hosting in the future.\nAirbnb could begin to sell ancillary services. Airbnb could provide cleaning services with its own cleaning crew. Cleaning is a necessity before every booking and could significantly increase monetization. Airbnb could also provide insurance for hosts. One of the main worries of people thinking of becoming hosts is damage to or loss of property. Airbnb has a lot of data on claims and could provide insurance to hosts with an efficient actuary. An insurance offer would also increase the supply of properties as well with more hosts joining the platform.\nThere are a lot of growth levers that Airbnb could pull but I expect none in the near term. Airbnb has all of its focus on capitalizing on the travel rebound and with 25% fewer employees due to cost cuts it’s unlikely to add new products soon.\nOverall the Risk-Reward isn’t Favorable For Me (Today)\nI like Airbnb’s operations, track record, and near and short-term prospects. It’s done very well navigating through choppy times and took advantage of the pandemic with agility. I expect Airbnb to see tremendous growth over the near term and to gain a growing share of the hospitality market over the long term.\nHowever, my expectations of Airbnb seem to be reflected in Street estimates and the company’s valuation. I see high execution risk and a large potential downwards stock reaction to any disappointments but capped upside unless we see blowout quarters. Thus, I am on the sidelines on Airbnb for now.\nHow I Could be Wrong Either Way\nI always want to give the entire picture in my analysis and in this section, I will try to provide how the stock price could meaningfully move higher or lower from areas I haven’t covered in the article.\nThe consumer preference between hotels vs. alternate accommodation highly influences Airbnb. The pandemic saw the latter win. It is reasonable to expect an unwind of this trend. I didn’t mention this in my article as I think it will be gradual and the high upcoming demand will overcome the micro move. But my assumption could be wrong, consumers could overwhelmingly prefer hotels which would make life very difficult for Airbnb. Conversely, pandemic choices could remain sticky and Airbnb could keep its pandemic era gains. Consumer preferences of style of stay will be highly decisive for Airbnb in the future.\nThe macroeconomic picture will be another deciding factor. A better than expected reopening demand will be a tide lifts all boats situation, while a subdued one would wreak havoc in the hospitality industry. A prolonged pandemic, especially in a situation with less government aid, would also significantly harm Airbnb prospects. I mentioned that I expected a rising rate environment and that Airbnb valuation would be harmed by it, the vice versa of what I wrote is true. Airbnb would greatly benefit from falling rates all else equal.\nProfitability will be an area to watch coming out of the pandemic. I already mentioned higher margins going forward. But these margins are still significantly below what is expected of peers (consensus EBITDA margins for CY23: Airbnb 23% vs. TripAdvisor(NASDAQ:TRIP)33%, Booking Holdings 37%). Airbnb could deliver on the upside in an environment of excess demand. Moreover, the low traffic acquisition costs I wrote about may not be in the consensus and could provide an upside. Conversely, some job cuts may have been premature and/or crisis management, and Airbnb could need to regrow its workforce contracting margins back down.\nDespite unlikely with the management’s reopening focus and reduced headcount, if Airbnb manages to launch one of the products I’ve mentioned, it will likely be met with a positive reaction. A new revenue stream will cause analysts to reevaluate long-term growth expectations and increase revenue estimates.\nLet’s not forget about the big risk facing Airbnb, regulation. A lot of cities were pressured to impose regulations on Airbnb pre-pandemic. Regulatory risks clout the future and uncertainty is always a big negative for investors. These issues resurfacing, despite the outcome, could hamper Airbnb stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821096507"}