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2021-10-09
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S&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500 2021年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote>
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The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着我们进入第21季度财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长的惊人速度以及超出分析师预期的公司比例创纪录。</li><li>关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</li><li>至此，21Q3盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从7月30日的29.7%变为10月1日的29.4%，下降了0.3个百分点。</li></ul>随着我们进入第21季度财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长的惊人速度以及超出分析师预期的公司比例创纪录。关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</blockquote></p><p> The current 21Q3 earnings growth rate of 29.4% will certainly mark the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1 and 21Q2 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 52.8% and 96.3% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1.</p><p><blockquote>当前第21季度盈利增长率为29.4%，这无疑标志着继历史上第21季度和第21季度盈利季（同比盈利增长率分别为52.8%和96.3%）之后，开始向更合理的同比(YoY)增长率过渡。这如图表1所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 1: S&P 500 YoY Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表1：标普500同比增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b40fb52d5da521d7a8b1187d6687d5\" tg-width=\"1031\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of the 17 companies that have reported thus far, 82.4% have beat analyst expectations, which is below the prior four quarter average of 84.7% but still well above the long-term average of 65.8%. More interesting is that the magnitude of the beat as defined by the earnings surprise factor is only 5.2%, which is well below the prior-four quarter average of 18.3% and more in line with the long-term average surprise factor of 4.0%.</p><p><blockquote>在迄今为止发布报告的17家公司中，82.4%的公司超出了分析师的预期，低于前四个季度84.7%的平均水平，但仍远高于65.8%的长期平均水平。更有趣的是，盈利意外因素定义的超出幅度仅为5.2%，远低于前四个季度18.3%的平均水平，也更符合4.0%的长期平均意外因素。</blockquote></p><p> While it is still early into the reporting period, if the surprise factor remains around this level, we may likely see a muted improvement in earnings growth as the quarter progresses. This will be in sharp contrast to 21Q2 and 21Q3 where earnings growth dramatically improved throughout the quarter by 28.5 and 30.8 percentage points (ppts) respectively.</p><p><blockquote>虽然报告期仍处于早期阶段，但如果意外因素保持在这一水平附近，随着本季度的进展，我们可能会看到盈利增长略有改善。这将与21Q2和21Q3形成鲜明对比，这两个季度的盈利增长分别大幅提高了28.5和30.8个百分点(ppt)。</blockquote></p><p> To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30thto 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline as shown in Exhibit 2. In a typical quarter, YoY growth expectations decline by an average of 3.3 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>至此，21Q3盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从7月30日的29.7%变为10月1日的29.4%，下降了0.3个百分点，如图表2所示。在典型的季度中，从季度初到财报季开始，同比增长预期平均下降3.3个百分点(ppt)。</blockquote></p><p> This is a sharp contrast from 20Q3-21Q2, where earnings growth improved heading into earnings season as analyst estimates had been overly pessimistic during the height of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这与20Q3-21Q2形成鲜明对比，由于分析师在疫情最严重期间的预测过于悲观，因此盈利增长在进入财报季时有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the change in behavior this quarter can be attributed to heightened reservation amongst analysts in excessively raising estimates, given the current headwinds of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前德尔塔变异毒株、供应链瓶颈和通胀上升的不利因素，也许本季度行为的变化可以归因于分析师对过度上调预期的高度保留。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 2:S&P 500 Growth Rate Change Heading into Earnings Season</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表2：进入财报季的标普500增长率变化</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d3e6b4a0c4c588e2991746383127c3\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>High expectations for energy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对能源的高期望</b></blockquote></p><p> Energy has seen the largest improvement in earnings growth rate since July 30, improving 38.5 ppts followed by Materials (8.1 ppts), and Information Technology (1.8 ppts).</p><p><blockquote>自7月30日以来，能源的盈利增长率改善幅度最大，提高了38.5个百分点，其次是材料（8.1个百分点）和信息技术（1.8个百分点）。</blockquote></p><p> Exhibit 3 highlights the 21Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates at an index and sector level. The Energy growth rate is currently 1,391.9%, which is the highest growth rate out of the 11 sectors and is expected to be the largest YoY growth rate for the sector since Refinitiv has tracked this data.</p><p><blockquote>图表3重点介绍了指数和行业层面的21Q3盈利和收入增长率。能源增长率目前为1,391.9%，是11个行业中增长率最高的，预计将成为Refinitiv跟踪该数据以来该行业最大的同比增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 3: S&P 500 21Q3 Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表3：标普500 21Q3增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a525dbb50a9f85aee2940d95303a292\" tg-width=\"1312\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard (Oct 1)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：标普500盈利记分卡（10月1日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the large growth rate in large part is due to a collapse in oil prices last year, the sector is still expected to deliver this quarter or we can expect a sharp reaction. From an earnings contribution perspective, the sector is currently forecasted to contribute 6.62 ppts towards the index growth rate of 29.4%, the largest of any sector.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大幅增长率在很大程度上是由于去年油价暴跌，但该行业仍有望在本季度实现增长，否则我们可以预期会出现剧烈反应。从盈利贡献角度来看，该行业目前预计将为29.4%的指数增长率贡献6.62个百分点，是所有行业中最大的。</blockquote></p><p> This is followed by Information Technology (6.38 ppts) and Industrials (4.15 ppts). These three sectors alone are expected to contribute 17.2 ppt to the 29.4% 21Q3 earnings growth rate, which is over half of the expected contribution towards the overall index growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>其次是信息技术（6.38个百分点）和工业（4.15个百分点）。仅这三个板块预计将为21Q3 29.4%的盈利增速贡献17.2个ppt，超过对整体指数增速预期贡献的一半。</blockquote></p><p> The Energy sector will be in the limelight for the next few quarters as well, as 21Q4 YoY earnings growth is currently forecasted at a remarkable 4,933.1% and 22Q1 YoY growth of 105.6% which again will both rank the sector with the highest growth rates. This period will be reminiscent of 2017-2018 where the Energy sector consistently had the highest YoY earnings growth rate of all sectors.</p><p><blockquote>能源行业也将在未来几个季度成为人们关注的焦点，目前预计第21季度的同比盈利增长率为4,933.1%，第22季度的同比增长率为105.6%，这两个行业都将再次成为增长率最高的行业。这一时期将让人想起2017-2018年，当时能源行业的盈利同比增长率一直是所有行业中最高的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings watch in 21Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>21Q3盈利观察</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are a handful of constituents that will be largely responsible for delivering 21Q3 earnings growth. Exhibit 4 highlights the top 20 constituents that have the largest earnings contribution (PPT) along with the expected report date, mean estimate,SmartEstimate, and Predicted Surprise (PS).</p><p><blockquote>少数成分股将在很大程度上推动21世纪第三季度盈利增长。图表4重点介绍了盈利贡献最大(PPT)的前20个成分股以及预期报告日期、平均估计、SmartEstimate和预测惊喜(PS)。</blockquote></p><p> This basket of constituents is currently expected to contribute 16.1 ppt towards the current forecasted 21Q3 index level earnings growth rate of 29.4%, which is just under 55%.</p><p><blockquote>目前预计这一篮子成分股将为当前预测的21Q3指数水平盈利增长率29.4%贡献16.1个百分点，略低于55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 4: 21Q3 Earnings Watch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表4：21Q3盈利观察</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89455116c10719752665c78c2b001ed\" tg-width=\"1801\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Most constituents in this basket come from Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) round up the top three largest PPT contributors.</p><p><blockquote>该篮子中的大多数成分来自能源、金融、工业和材料。苹果公司(AAPL)、埃克森美孚(XOM)和雪佛龙(CVX)跻身PPT贡献者前三名。</blockquote></p><p> Paying attention to the PS will be important, as this will help predict any significant earnings surprise which will ultimately affect the trajectory of the index level growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>关注PS非常重要，因为这将有助于预测任何最终影响指数水平增长率轨迹的重大盈利意外。</blockquote></p><p> The PS compares the StarMine SmartEstimate to the consensus mean. By overweighting analysts who are more accurate and timelier, the SmartEstimate provides a refined view into consensus. Comparing the SmartEstimate to the mean estimate leads to our PS, which accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprise 70% of the time when the PS is greater or less than 2% / -2%.</p><p><blockquote>PS将StarMine SmartEstimate与共识平均值进行比较。通过增持更准确、更及时的分析师，SmartEstimate提供了一个完善的共识视图。将SmartEstimate与平均估计值进行比较，得出我们的PS，当PS大于或小于2%/-2%时，它在70%的时间里准确预测收益惊喜的方向。</blockquote></p><p> Within this basket, 10 constituents are expected to post a positive earnings surprise while four constituents are expected to post a negative earnings surprise. American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holding Inc. (UAL), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) all have a negative PS which will be worth paying attention to as any better-than-expected numbers will provide a material boost to the 21Q3 index growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>在这一篮子中，10个成分股预计将公布积极的盈利惊喜，而4个成分股预计将公布消极的盈利惊喜。美国航空集团(AAL)、达美航空(DAL)、联合航空控股公司(UAL)和凯撒娱乐(CZR)的PS均为负，值得关注，因为任何好于预期的数据将为21Q3指数增长率提供实质性提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A look at 2021 and 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年和2022年一览</b></blockquote></p><p> Using the EARN app in EIKON, we can see how 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for sectors and the S&P 500 overall have trended. In Exhibit 5, we show YoY growth rates for EPS for sectors and the S&P 500 overall, as of one day ago, and then at 6/30/2021, 3/31/2021 and 12/31/2020.</p><p><blockquote>使用EIKON中的EARN应用程序，我们可以了解2021年和2022年各行业和标普500整体每股收益预期的趋势。在图表5中，我们显示了截至一天前以及2021年6月30日、2021年3月31日和2020年12月31日各行业和标普500整体每股收益的同比增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, given the strong YTD results, 2021E EPS for most sectors and the S&P 500 overall have moved higher in each time period. The one exception is the industrials sector, which actually saw YoY growth estimates fall to a still-robust 90.3% in the most recent period from 110.5% at 6/30/2021, possibly due to the impact of rising commodity costs and supply chain disruptions. Overall, we see that earnings for the S&P 500 are now expected to be up 44.7% YoY compared to the 24.4% growth rate expected at the end of last year.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于年初至今的强劲业绩，大多数行业和整个标普500的2021年每股收益在每个时间段都有所上升。一个例外是工业部门，最近一段时间的同比增长预期实际上从2021年6月30日的110.5%降至仍然强劲的90.3%，这可能是由于大宗商品成本上升和供应链中断的影响。总体而言，我们认为标普500的盈利目前预计将同比增长44.7%，而去年底预计增长率为24.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 5: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表5：Earn App EPS同比增长数据</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eebbb4657cb57f7678446b7320b7b9d\" tg-width=\"1723\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon工作区</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, we see the opposite impact on 2022 YoY growth rates, with the expected growth rate falling to 9.2% from 16.0% at the end of 2021Q1 as per Exhibit 6.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，我们看到了对2022年同比增长率的相反影响，如图6所示，预期增长率从2021年第一季度末的16.0%降至9.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 6: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表6：Earn App EPS同比增长数据</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f89e4a3c94d175a319e268f74e5d735\" tg-width=\"1859\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon工作区</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this would seem to imply that estimated earnings growth is expected to decline for the S&P 500 in 2022, this is not actually the case. The bottom-up EPS calculation from our This Week In Earnings report shows that as of 10/1/2021, 2022 bottom-up EPS is expected to be $219.94/share which is up 12.7% from $195.14/share at the start of the year, but below the 20.0% growth in 2021 estimate over this same time period. The decline in earnings growth is a factor of the denominator (i.e., 2021 EPS) growing faster – as we show below in Exhibit 7.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这似乎意味着标普500 2022年的盈利增长预计将下降，但事实并非如此。我们本周收益报告中自下而上的每股收益计算显示，截至2021年10月1日，2022年自下而上的每股收益预计为219.94美元/股，比年初的195.14美元/股增长12.7%，但低于同期2021年20.0%的增长预期。盈利增长的下降是分母（即2021年每股收益）增长更快的一个因素——如下图7所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 7: S&P 500 Bottom-up EPS Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表7：标普500自下而上的每股收益预估</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9341d9d46dbb1c4a72f84605e3feb7e\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：路孚特I/B/E/S数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500 2021年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500 2021年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>As we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations.</li> <li>The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?</li> <li>To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30th to 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline.</li> </ul> As we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations. The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着我们进入第21季度财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长的惊人速度以及超出分析师预期的公司比例创纪录。</li><li>关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</li><li>至此，21Q3盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从7月30日的29.7%变为10月1日的29.4%，下降了0.3个百分点。</li></ul>随着我们进入第21季度财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长的惊人速度以及超出分析师预期的公司比例创纪录。关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</blockquote></p><p> The current 21Q3 earnings growth rate of 29.4% will certainly mark the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1 and 21Q2 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 52.8% and 96.3% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1.</p><p><blockquote>当前第21季度盈利增长率为29.4%，这无疑标志着继历史上第21季度和第21季度盈利季（同比盈利增长率分别为52.8%和96.3%）之后，开始向更合理的同比(YoY)增长率过渡。这如图表1所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 1: S&P 500 YoY Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表1：标普500同比增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b40fb52d5da521d7a8b1187d6687d5\" tg-width=\"1031\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of the 17 companies that have reported thus far, 82.4% have beat analyst expectations, which is below the prior four quarter average of 84.7% but still well above the long-term average of 65.8%. More interesting is that the magnitude of the beat as defined by the earnings surprise factor is only 5.2%, which is well below the prior-four quarter average of 18.3% and more in line with the long-term average surprise factor of 4.0%.</p><p><blockquote>在迄今为止发布报告的17家公司中，82.4%的公司超出了分析师的预期，低于前四个季度84.7%的平均水平，但仍远高于65.8%的长期平均水平。更有趣的是，盈利意外因素定义的超出幅度仅为5.2%，远低于前四个季度18.3%的平均水平，也更符合4.0%的长期平均意外因素。</blockquote></p><p> While it is still early into the reporting period, if the surprise factor remains around this level, we may likely see a muted improvement in earnings growth as the quarter progresses. This will be in sharp contrast to 21Q2 and 21Q3 where earnings growth dramatically improved throughout the quarter by 28.5 and 30.8 percentage points (ppts) respectively.</p><p><blockquote>虽然报告期仍处于早期阶段，但如果意外因素保持在这一水平附近，随着本季度的进展，我们可能会看到盈利增长略有改善。这将与21Q2和21Q3形成鲜明对比，这两个季度的盈利增长分别大幅提高了28.5和30.8个百分点(ppt)。</blockquote></p><p> To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30thto 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline as shown in Exhibit 2. In a typical quarter, YoY growth expectations decline by an average of 3.3 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>至此，21Q3盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从7月30日的29.7%变为10月1日的29.4%，下降了0.3个百分点，如图表2所示。在典型的季度中，从季度初到财报季开始，同比增长预期平均下降3.3个百分点(ppt)。</blockquote></p><p> This is a sharp contrast from 20Q3-21Q2, where earnings growth improved heading into earnings season as analyst estimates had been overly pessimistic during the height of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这与20Q3-21Q2形成鲜明对比，由于分析师在疫情最严重期间的预测过于悲观，因此盈利增长在进入财报季时有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the change in behavior this quarter can be attributed to heightened reservation amongst analysts in excessively raising estimates, given the current headwinds of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前德尔塔变异毒株、供应链瓶颈和通胀上升的不利因素，也许本季度行为的变化可以归因于分析师对过度上调预期的高度保留。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 2:S&P 500 Growth Rate Change Heading into Earnings Season</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表2：进入财报季的标普500增长率变化</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d3e6b4a0c4c588e2991746383127c3\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>High expectations for energy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对能源的高期望</b></blockquote></p><p> Energy has seen the largest improvement in earnings growth rate since July 30, improving 38.5 ppts followed by Materials (8.1 ppts), and Information Technology (1.8 ppts).</p><p><blockquote>自7月30日以来，能源的盈利增长率改善幅度最大，提高了38.5个百分点，其次是材料（8.1个百分点）和信息技术（1.8个百分点）。</blockquote></p><p> Exhibit 3 highlights the 21Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates at an index and sector level. The Energy growth rate is currently 1,391.9%, which is the highest growth rate out of the 11 sectors and is expected to be the largest YoY growth rate for the sector since Refinitiv has tracked this data.</p><p><blockquote>图表3重点介绍了指数和行业层面的21Q3盈利和收入增长率。能源增长率目前为1,391.9%，是11个行业中增长率最高的，预计将成为Refinitiv跟踪该数据以来该行业最大的同比增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 3: S&P 500 21Q3 Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表3：标普500 21Q3增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a525dbb50a9f85aee2940d95303a292\" tg-width=\"1312\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard (Oct 1)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：标普500盈利记分卡（10月1日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the large growth rate in large part is due to a collapse in oil prices last year, the sector is still expected to deliver this quarter or we can expect a sharp reaction. From an earnings contribution perspective, the sector is currently forecasted to contribute 6.62 ppts towards the index growth rate of 29.4%, the largest of any sector.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大幅增长率在很大程度上是由于去年油价暴跌，但该行业仍有望在本季度实现增长，否则我们可以预期会出现剧烈反应。从盈利贡献角度来看，该行业目前预计将为29.4%的指数增长率贡献6.62个百分点，是所有行业中最大的。</blockquote></p><p> This is followed by Information Technology (6.38 ppts) and Industrials (4.15 ppts). These three sectors alone are expected to contribute 17.2 ppt to the 29.4% 21Q3 earnings growth rate, which is over half of the expected contribution towards the overall index growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>其次是信息技术（6.38个百分点）和工业（4.15个百分点）。仅这三个板块预计将为21Q3 29.4%的盈利增速贡献17.2个ppt，超过对整体指数增速预期贡献的一半。</blockquote></p><p> The Energy sector will be in the limelight for the next few quarters as well, as 21Q4 YoY earnings growth is currently forecasted at a remarkable 4,933.1% and 22Q1 YoY growth of 105.6% which again will both rank the sector with the highest growth rates. This period will be reminiscent of 2017-2018 where the Energy sector consistently had the highest YoY earnings growth rate of all sectors.</p><p><blockquote>能源行业也将在未来几个季度成为人们关注的焦点，目前预计第21季度的同比盈利增长率为4,933.1%，第22季度的同比增长率为105.6%，这两个行业都将再次成为增长率最高的行业。这一时期将让人想起2017-2018年，当时能源行业的盈利同比增长率一直是所有行业中最高的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings watch in 21Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>21Q3盈利观察</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are a handful of constituents that will be largely responsible for delivering 21Q3 earnings growth. Exhibit 4 highlights the top 20 constituents that have the largest earnings contribution (PPT) along with the expected report date, mean estimate,SmartEstimate, and Predicted Surprise (PS).</p><p><blockquote>少数成分股将在很大程度上推动21世纪第三季度盈利增长。图表4重点介绍了盈利贡献最大(PPT)的前20个成分股以及预期报告日期、平均估计、SmartEstimate和预测惊喜(PS)。</blockquote></p><p> This basket of constituents is currently expected to contribute 16.1 ppt towards the current forecasted 21Q3 index level earnings growth rate of 29.4%, which is just under 55%.</p><p><blockquote>目前预计这一篮子成分股将为当前预测的21Q3指数水平盈利增长率29.4%贡献16.1个百分点，略低于55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 4: 21Q3 Earnings Watch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表4：21Q3盈利观察</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89455116c10719752665c78c2b001ed\" tg-width=\"1801\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Most constituents in this basket come from Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) round up the top three largest PPT contributors.</p><p><blockquote>该篮子中的大多数成分来自能源、金融、工业和材料。苹果公司(AAPL)、埃克森美孚(XOM)和雪佛龙(CVX)跻身PPT贡献者前三名。</blockquote></p><p> Paying attention to the PS will be important, as this will help predict any significant earnings surprise which will ultimately affect the trajectory of the index level growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>关注PS非常重要，因为这将有助于预测任何最终影响指数水平增长率轨迹的重大盈利意外。</blockquote></p><p> The PS compares the StarMine SmartEstimate to the consensus mean. By overweighting analysts who are more accurate and timelier, the SmartEstimate provides a refined view into consensus. Comparing the SmartEstimate to the mean estimate leads to our PS, which accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprise 70% of the time when the PS is greater or less than 2% / -2%.</p><p><blockquote>PS将StarMine SmartEstimate与共识平均值进行比较。通过增持更准确、更及时的分析师，SmartEstimate提供了一个完善的共识视图。将SmartEstimate与平均估计值进行比较，得出我们的PS，当PS大于或小于2%/-2%时，它在70%的时间里准确预测收益惊喜的方向。</blockquote></p><p> Within this basket, 10 constituents are expected to post a positive earnings surprise while four constituents are expected to post a negative earnings surprise. American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holding Inc. (UAL), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) all have a negative PS which will be worth paying attention to as any better-than-expected numbers will provide a material boost to the 21Q3 index growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>在这一篮子中，10个成分股预计将公布积极的盈利惊喜，而4个成分股预计将公布消极的盈利惊喜。美国航空集团(AAL)、达美航空(DAL)、联合航空控股公司(UAL)和凯撒娱乐(CZR)的PS均为负，值得关注，因为任何好于预期的数据将为21Q3指数增长率提供实质性提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A look at 2021 and 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年和2022年一览</b></blockquote></p><p> Using the EARN app in EIKON, we can see how 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for sectors and the S&P 500 overall have trended. In Exhibit 5, we show YoY growth rates for EPS for sectors and the S&P 500 overall, as of one day ago, and then at 6/30/2021, 3/31/2021 and 12/31/2020.</p><p><blockquote>使用EIKON中的EARN应用程序，我们可以了解2021年和2022年各行业和标普500整体每股收益预期的趋势。在图表5中，我们显示了截至一天前以及2021年6月30日、2021年3月31日和2020年12月31日各行业和标普500整体每股收益的同比增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, given the strong YTD results, 2021E EPS for most sectors and the S&P 500 overall have moved higher in each time period. The one exception is the industrials sector, which actually saw YoY growth estimates fall to a still-robust 90.3% in the most recent period from 110.5% at 6/30/2021, possibly due to the impact of rising commodity costs and supply chain disruptions. Overall, we see that earnings for the S&P 500 are now expected to be up 44.7% YoY compared to the 24.4% growth rate expected at the end of last year.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于年初至今的强劲业绩，大多数行业和整个标普500的2021年每股收益在每个时间段都有所上升。一个例外是工业部门，最近一段时间的同比增长预期实际上从2021年6月30日的110.5%降至仍然强劲的90.3%，这可能是由于大宗商品成本上升和供应链中断的影响。总体而言，我们认为标普500的盈利目前预计将同比增长44.7%，而去年底预计增长率为24.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 5: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表5：Earn App EPS同比增长数据</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eebbb4657cb57f7678446b7320b7b9d\" tg-width=\"1723\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon工作区</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, we see the opposite impact on 2022 YoY growth rates, with the expected growth rate falling to 9.2% from 16.0% at the end of 2021Q1 as per Exhibit 6.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，我们看到了对2022年同比增长率的相反影响，如图6所示，预期增长率从2021年第一季度末的16.0%降至9.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 6: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表6：Earn App EPS同比增长数据</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f89e4a3c94d175a319e268f74e5d735\" tg-width=\"1859\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon工作区</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this would seem to imply that estimated earnings growth is expected to decline for the S&P 500 in 2022, this is not actually the case. The bottom-up EPS calculation from our This Week In Earnings report shows that as of 10/1/2021, 2022 bottom-up EPS is expected to be $219.94/share which is up 12.7% from $195.14/share at the start of the year, but below the 20.0% growth in 2021 estimate over this same time period. The decline in earnings growth is a factor of the denominator (i.e., 2021 EPS) growing faster – as we show below in Exhibit 7.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这似乎意味着标普500 2022年的盈利增长预计将下降，但事实并非如此。我们本周收益报告中自下而上的每股收益计算显示，截至2021年10月1日，2022年自下而上的每股收益预计为219.94美元/股，比年初的195.14美元/股增长12.7%，但低于同期2021年20.0%的增长预期。盈利增长的下降是分母（即2021年每股收益）增长更快的一个因素——如下图7所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exhibit 7: S&P 500 Bottom-up EPS Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表7：标普500自下而上的每股收益预估</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9341d9d46dbb1c4a72f84605e3feb7e\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：路孚特I/B/E/S数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459019-s-and-p-500-q3-2021-preview-all-eyes-earnings-momentum\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459019-s-and-p-500-q3-2021-preview-all-eyes-earnings-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188154394","content_text":"Summary\n\nAs we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations.\nThe key question is, can this momentum be maintained?\nTo this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30th to 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline.\n\nAs we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations. The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?\nThe current 21Q3 earnings growth rate of 29.4% will certainly mark the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1 and 21Q2 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 52.8% and 96.3% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1.\nExhibit 1: S&P 500 YoY Growth Rates\n\nOf the 17 companies that have reported thus far, 82.4% have beat analyst expectations, which is below the prior four quarter average of 84.7% but still well above the long-term average of 65.8%. More interesting is that the magnitude of the beat as defined by the earnings surprise factor is only 5.2%, which is well below the prior-four quarter average of 18.3% and more in line with the long-term average surprise factor of 4.0%.\nWhile it is still early into the reporting period, if the surprise factor remains around this level, we may likely see a muted improvement in earnings growth as the quarter progresses. This will be in sharp contrast to 21Q2 and 21Q3 where earnings growth dramatically improved throughout the quarter by 28.5 and 30.8 percentage points (ppts) respectively.\nTo this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30thto 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline as shown in Exhibit 2. In a typical quarter, YoY growth expectations decline by an average of 3.3 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season.\nThis is a sharp contrast from 20Q3-21Q2, where earnings growth improved heading into earnings season as analyst estimates had been overly pessimistic during the height of the pandemic.\nPerhaps the change in behavior this quarter can be attributed to heightened reservation amongst analysts in excessively raising estimates, given the current headwinds of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation.\nExhibit 2:S&P 500 Growth Rate Change Heading into Earnings Season\n\nHigh expectations for energy\nEnergy has seen the largest improvement in earnings growth rate since July 30, improving 38.5 ppts followed by Materials (8.1 ppts), and Information Technology (1.8 ppts).\nExhibit 3 highlights the 21Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates at an index and sector level. The Energy growth rate is currently 1,391.9%, which is the highest growth rate out of the 11 sectors and is expected to be the largest YoY growth rate for the sector since Refinitiv has tracked this data.\nExhibit 3: S&P 500 21Q3 Growth Rates\nSource: S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard (Oct 1)\nWhile the large growth rate in large part is due to a collapse in oil prices last year, the sector is still expected to deliver this quarter or we can expect a sharp reaction. From an earnings contribution perspective, the sector is currently forecasted to contribute 6.62 ppts towards the index growth rate of 29.4%, the largest of any sector.\nThis is followed by Information Technology (6.38 ppts) and Industrials (4.15 ppts). These three sectors alone are expected to contribute 17.2 ppt to the 29.4% 21Q3 earnings growth rate, which is over half of the expected contribution towards the overall index growth rate.\nThe Energy sector will be in the limelight for the next few quarters as well, as 21Q4 YoY earnings growth is currently forecasted at a remarkable 4,933.1% and 22Q1 YoY growth of 105.6% which again will both rank the sector with the highest growth rates. This period will be reminiscent of 2017-2018 where the Energy sector consistently had the highest YoY earnings growth rate of all sectors.\nEarnings watch in 21Q3\nThere are a handful of constituents that will be largely responsible for delivering 21Q3 earnings growth. Exhibit 4 highlights the top 20 constituents that have the largest earnings contribution (PPT) along with the expected report date, mean estimate,SmartEstimate, and Predicted Surprise (PS).\nThis basket of constituents is currently expected to contribute 16.1 ppt towards the current forecasted 21Q3 index level earnings growth rate of 29.4%, which is just under 55%.\nExhibit 4: 21Q3 Earnings Watch\n\nMost constituents in this basket come from Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) round up the top three largest PPT contributors.\nPaying attention to the PS will be important, as this will help predict any significant earnings surprise which will ultimately affect the trajectory of the index level growth rate.\nThe PS compares the StarMine SmartEstimate to the consensus mean. By overweighting analysts who are more accurate and timelier, the SmartEstimate provides a refined view into consensus. Comparing the SmartEstimate to the mean estimate leads to our PS, which accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprise 70% of the time when the PS is greater or less than 2% / -2%.\nWithin this basket, 10 constituents are expected to post a positive earnings surprise while four constituents are expected to post a negative earnings surprise. American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holding Inc. (UAL), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) all have a negative PS which will be worth paying attention to as any better-than-expected numbers will provide a material boost to the 21Q3 index growth rate.\nA look at 2021 and 2022\nUsing the EARN app in EIKON, we can see how 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for sectors and the S&P 500 overall have trended. In Exhibit 5, we show YoY growth rates for EPS for sectors and the S&P 500 overall, as of one day ago, and then at 6/30/2021, 3/31/2021 and 12/31/2020.\nNot surprisingly, given the strong YTD results, 2021E EPS for most sectors and the S&P 500 overall have moved higher in each time period. The one exception is the industrials sector, which actually saw YoY growth estimates fall to a still-robust 90.3% in the most recent period from 110.5% at 6/30/2021, possibly due to the impact of rising commodity costs and supply chain disruptions. Overall, we see that earnings for the S&P 500 are now expected to be up 44.7% YoY compared to the 24.4% growth rate expected at the end of last year.\nExhibit 5: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth\nSource: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace\nInterestingly, we see the opposite impact on 2022 YoY growth rates, with the expected growth rate falling to 9.2% from 16.0% at the end of 2021Q1 as per Exhibit 6.\nExhibit 6: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth\nSource: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace\nWhile this would seem to imply that estimated earnings growth is expected to decline for the S&P 500 in 2022, this is not actually the case. The bottom-up EPS calculation from our This Week In Earnings report shows that as of 10/1/2021, 2022 bottom-up EPS is expected to be $219.94/share which is up 12.7% from $195.14/share at the start of the year, but below the 20.0% growth in 2021 estimate over this same time period. The decline in earnings growth is a factor of the denominator (i.e., 2021 EPS) growing faster – as we show below in Exhibit 7.\nExhibit 7: S&P 500 Bottom-up EPS Estimates\nSource: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821256893"}
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