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Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For "Fire And Ice" Correction<blockquote>大摩加倍押注厄运：评级进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":821829852,"tweetId":"821829852","gmtCreate":1633733297005,"gmtModify":1633733297181,"author":{"id":3565832091209909,"idStr":"3565832091209909","authorId":3565832091209909,"authorIdStr":"3565832091209909","name":"HuatKueh313","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fbe827eb784eecc8d7e3bf6018cb01","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":16,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821829852","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction<blockquote>大摩加倍押注厄运：评级进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.<blockquote>三周前，当市场因担心恒大违约蔓延（这肯定仍在讨论中）而陷入短暂但急剧的抛售时，摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊趁机火上浇油，或者更确切地说是“冰”，并警告称，“破坏性”20%修正的可能性正在上升。</blockquote> As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...<blockquote>提醒一下，在夏季的大部分时间里，威尔逊一直预测当前的市场崩溃要么以“火灾”告终，即市场大幅调整...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...<blockquote>或者“冰”，消费者支出陷入停滞...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:<blockquote>威尔逊指出了他在“恒大周一”暴跌期间的两个悲观预测，他写道，“ice情景对市场来说会更糟我们正在向那个方向倾斜鉴于消费者信心下降和采购经理人指数较低，我们预计。”这是他在他的长期论点中所说的，即随着我们逐渐过渡到晚期周期，“中期周期”即将经历痛苦的修正：</blockquote> The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize. And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"<blockquote>典型的中期周期“火灾”结果将导致标普500适度且健康地回调10%。然而，“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正。结果，我们继续推荐更具防御性的质量杠铃（医疗保健和主食），以防止“冰”情景，同时在金融股中保留一条腿，以参与更高利率实现时的“火”结果。很明显，Wilson顽固地拒绝加入看涨行列，他表示，“由于我们的年终目标比当前水平低10%，我们的观点很明确：中期周期过渡将随着滚动修正最终触及标普500而结束。”</blockquote> Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:<blockquote>快进到今天，随着股市再次飙升，威尔逊加倍了他的看跌观点，并在最新的摩根士丹利策略数据包中写道：“我们现在呼唤火与冰。”在这里，他再次概述了他一直设想的两种可能的周期中期修正结果：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li> <li>Ice:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li> </ul> And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"<blockquote><ul><li>火：美联储暗示缩减购债规模即将到来，金融状况收紧</li><li>冰：增长令人失望，尤其是在盈利方面</li></ul>因此，与他上个月所说的相反，威尔逊现在认为“这些情况越来越有可能同时发生，我们会得到&gt;10%的修正。美联储可能会在下一次FOMC会议上宣布缩减计划，因为我们预计盈利将会令人失望。”</blockquote> And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...<blockquote>由于讨论即将到来的缩减的影响已经有很多数字墨水溢出，我们将重点关注他的第二个警告，即即将到来的企业盈利麻烦，这与我们一个多月前所说的相呼应……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"<blockquote>...威尔逊将其简单地提炼为“未来的盈利问题”。</blockquote> Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"<blockquote>在这里，这位策略师指出，过去一个月有大量公司在非周期收益报告中指出了严重的供应链问题，并指出“在许多此类报告发布后，前瞻性盈利预测和价格均被下调。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"<blockquote>谈到笑点，威尔逊认为这将是第三季度报告季的普遍动态，并且将“引发指数层面盈利修正的下行——对价格构成阻力。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.<blockquote>最后，展望第三季度之后，他认为盈利风险更多地来自（1）公司无法转嫁定价（2）利润率风险更多地与更高的工资有关，以及（3）商品消费的回归（下降）。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction<blockquote>大摩加倍押注厄运：评级进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction<blockquote>大摩加倍押注厄运：评级进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-10-08 23:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThree weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.<blockquote>三周前，当市场因担心恒大违约蔓延（这肯定仍在讨论中）而陷入短暂但急剧的抛售时，摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊趁机火上浇油，或者更确切地说是“冰”，并警告称，“破坏性”20%修正的可能性正在上升。</blockquote> As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...<blockquote>提醒一下，在夏季的大部分时间里，威尔逊一直预测当前的市场崩溃要么以“火灾”告终，即市场大幅调整...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...<blockquote>或者“冰”，消费者支出陷入停滞...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:<blockquote>威尔逊指出了他在“恒大周一”暴跌期间的两个悲观预测，他写道，“ice情景对市场来说会更糟我们正在向那个方向倾斜鉴于消费者信心下降和采购经理人指数较低，我们预计。”这是他在他的长期论点中所说的，即随着我们逐渐过渡到晚期周期，“中期周期”即将经历痛苦的修正：</blockquote> The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize. And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"<blockquote>典型的中期周期“火灾”结果将导致标普500适度且健康地回调10%。然而，“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正。结果，我们继续推荐更具防御性的质量杠铃（医疗保健和主食），以防止“冰”情景，同时在金融股中保留一条腿，以参与更高利率实现时的“火”结果。很明显，Wilson顽固地拒绝加入看涨行列，他表示，“由于我们的年终目标比当前水平低10%，我们的观点很明确：中期周期过渡将随着滚动修正最终触及标普500而结束。”</blockquote> Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:<blockquote>快进到今天，随着股市再次飙升，威尔逊加倍了他的看跌观点，并在最新的摩根士丹利策略数据包中写道：“我们现在呼唤火与冰。”在这里，他再次概述了他一直设想的两种可能的周期中期修正结果：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li> <li>Ice:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li> </ul> And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"<blockquote><ul><li>火：美联储暗示缩减购债规模即将到来，金融状况收紧</li><li>冰：增长令人失望，尤其是在盈利方面</li></ul>因此，与他上个月所说的相反，威尔逊现在认为“这些情况越来越有可能同时发生，我们会得到&gt;10%的修正。美联储可能会在下一次FOMC会议上宣布缩减计划，因为我们预计盈利将会令人失望。”</blockquote> And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...<blockquote>由于讨论即将到来的缩减的影响已经有很多数字墨水溢出，我们将重点关注他的第二个警告，即即将到来的企业盈利麻烦，这与我们一个多月前所说的相呼应……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"<blockquote>...威尔逊将其简单地提炼为“未来的盈利问题”。</blockquote> Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"<blockquote>在这里，这位策略师指出，过去一个月有大量公司在非周期收益报告中指出了严重的供应链问题，并指出“在许多此类报告发布后，前瞻性盈利预测和价格均被下调。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"<blockquote>谈到笑点，威尔逊认为这将是第三季度报告季的普遍动态，并且将“引发指数层面盈利修正的下行——对价格构成阻力。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.<blockquote>最后，展望第三季度之后，他认为盈利风险更多地来自（1）公司无法转嫁定价（2）利润率风险更多地与更高的工资有关，以及（3）商品消费的回归（下降）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821829852"}