Ramesh78
2021-10-08
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Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote>
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The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）预计未来几年将实现大幅增长。该公司如今的行业地位很强，但竞争令人担忧。Rivian汽车公司 (RIVN) 的 R1T 卡车将在电动卡车领域获得相当大的份额，这可能会损害特斯拉 Cybertruck 的前景，该卡车距离量产还有大约两年的时间。一般来说，这个空间应该足够大，可以容纳几年后的几名球员，但特斯拉失去先发优势的事实自然不是一个积极因素。总体而言，特斯拉目前的股价似乎相当昂贵，但根据市场情绪，股价仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Rivian Publicly Traded?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian公开交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian汽车公司尚未公开交易。然而，该公司计划在不久的将来上市，因为Rivian几天前已经提交了 THES-1 进行首次公开募股。该公司寻求以约 80 亿美元的价格出售 10% 的股份，这将使公司估值达到 800 亿美元。对于一家最近刚刚开始量产首款车型的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵，但话说回来，Rivian得到了亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等公司的支持，并且拥有引人注目的产品和电动卡车市场的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Is Rivian Different From Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian和特斯拉有什么不同？</b></blockquote></p><p> The two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司活跃在同一行业，但它们之间存在着巨大的差异。最明显的一个是公司的规模和规模——特斯拉目前每年生产约90万辆汽车，而Rivian刚刚开始生产其第一款车型。特斯拉在不同的大洲经营着几家工厂，并拥有一个商店和超级充电站网络，而Rivian的情况并非如此。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，特斯拉雄心勃勃地成为储能、太阳能等领域的主要参与者。这些企业尚未盈利，这限制了这些业务部门的当前价值，但与仅仅是电动汽车制造商的Rivian相比，特斯拉在整个“新能源”行业显然更加多元化。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更大的规模和成熟的运营也导致了另一个重要的区别——与Rivian不同，特斯拉是盈利的，并且能够为其运营和资本支出提供自筹资金，这使其对资本市场的依赖较小。在可预见的未来，Rivian将依赖资本市场为其未来的增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉会受到 Rivian R1T 卡车的影响吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>过去，特斯拉通过两个增长动力可靠地增长了产量和收入：推出新车型和增加现有车型的销量。在过去的几个季度里，特斯拉几乎所有的销量都来自 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量，而 X 和 S 的销量则退居二线。未来的增长可能会受到特斯拉 3 和 Y 车型销量增长的推动，但该公司在一定程度上也依赖于新车型的推出。Roadster 2 不会是一款量产车型，但特斯拉的 Cybertruck 寄予厚望。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 表示，Cybertruck 于 2019 年推出，将于 2022 年底投入生产。然而，大规模生产还有很长的路要走，目标是到 2023 年底，也就是大约两年后。</blockquote></p><p> When we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as pre-production started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到特斯拉经常错过自己的时间表时，无论是机器人出租车、Roadster 2 还是其他产品，Cybertruck 似乎有可能进一步推迟，并且可能不会在 2024 年之前量产。如果特斯拉比目前的预期晚几个月，情况就会如此，这并不令人意外。到那时，Rivian将生产其 R1T 卡车几年，其他卡车也将进入有吸引力的电动卡车市场。例如，福特有望很快将其 F-150 照明产品推向市场，预生产已于 9 月份开始，进入市场只需几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.</p><p><blockquote>来自 Rivian R1T 和福特 F-150 的竞争可能会在多个方面影响特斯拉。首先，相对于竞争对手的产品，Cybertruck 上市时间较晚，这意味着那些非常渴望购买电动卡车的客户将选择Rivian或福特，而不是特斯拉。这些非常热切的客户可能确实包括许多愿意支付高于平均水平价格的客户，这将使福特和Rivian能够吸收两年后特斯拉推出 Cybertruck 时无法获得的购买力。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，R1T 和 F-150 照明将在 Cybertruck 上市之前很久就上路，这一事实可能会损害特斯拉作为主要电动卡车制造商的形象。总体而言，由于其先发优势，特斯拉在电动汽车领域拥有品牌优势。但由于它在卡车领域起步较晚，这种先发优势和不断提高的品牌知名度可能会落入Rivian和福特手中，而不是特斯拉手中。只要 Rivian 和福特的产品让客户满意（这不能保证），卡车买家可能会对Rivian和福特建立品牌忠诚度，从长远来看，这可能会损害特斯拉销售其 Cybertruck 和未来电动卡车的能力。一旦错过了成为先行者的机会，其他人就有了优势，类似于特斯拉今天在销售电动汽车方面的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后但同样重要的是，Rivian和福特的成功推出也可能影响特斯拉的股票估值。如果Rivian和福特都能够在 Cybertruck 发布之前很好地扩大生产规模并销售大量电动卡车，对电动汽车股票感兴趣的投资者可能会开始转向特斯拉。如果Rivian在特斯拉之前成功推出电动卡车，特斯拉的一些现有股东可能会决定选择Rivian，或者在两家公司之间分割投资。这反过来可能会导致对特斯拉股票的需求下降并带来一些抛售压力，这将对特斯拉股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> None of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不能保证，当然，特斯拉有可能超越自己的时间表，并且 Cybertruck 将比预期更早上市。R1T 或 F-150 Lightning 也有可能出现制造问题，这意味着特斯拉有更多时间迎头赶上。但目前看来，Rivian和福特在电动卡车领域处于领先地位，而特斯拉落后于竞争对手自然对该公司及其股票不利。这可能会损害对 Cybertruck 的需求，损害特斯拉作为技术领导者和先行者的品牌形象，并且可能会使其股价相对于其他电动汽车制造商的股价不那么有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> The electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.</p><p><blockquote>电动卡车的空间将足够大，可以让几家公司在几年后表现出色，因此特斯拉的 Cybertruck 落后并不意味着该车型不会卖得好。但了解一家公司在五年后是占据30%的市场份额还是20%的市场份额仍然很重要。由于特斯拉落后于竞争对手，我确实相信特斯拉不太可能像今天主导美国电动汽车领域那样主导美国电动卡车领域。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，特斯拉的销量和收入仍将增长，但增长可能不足以证明当前估值的合理性。特斯拉预计今年的收入将达到 510 亿美元，2022 年将达到 670 亿美元，2023 年将达到 830 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2d74e02403e2b6edbc187bf103c6bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.</p><p><blockquote>这相当于明年的增长率为 31%，2023 年为 24%。请注意，预期收入增长低于特斯拉预期的 50% 平均销量增长，因为当前分析师模型预测特斯拉可能无法实现这一目标，而平均销售价格压缩也可能成为收入增长的阻力。总体而言，当然，与无法实现有意义增长的传统汽车制造商相比，20%-30% 范围内的收入增长仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at 10x 2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稀释后持有 11.2 亿股股票，目前估值为 8,750 亿美元，相当于远期销售倍数为 17。同样，2022 年和 2023 年的销售倍数分别为 13 和 11。这些估值不仅相对于传统汽车制造商来说非常高，甚至相对于其他一些电动汽车制造商来说也是如此。例如，增长速度快于特斯拉的蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）目前的估值均为 2022 年预期收入的 6 倍，略低于特斯拉估值的一半。Lucid（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）是一家相当新的市场进入者，未来几年的相对增长速度应该会超过特斯拉，其估值为 2023 年预期收入的 10 倍，而特斯拉为 2023 年预期收入的 11 倍。总体而言，我确实认为特斯拉的股价以目前的价格计算太贵了。这并不意味着特斯拉是一家糟糕的公司，或者该公司不会产生任何业务增长，但应该始终考虑估值。对我来说，特斯拉在电动卡车领域远远落后于竞争对手的事实是我认为特斯拉目前估值过高的另一个原因——股票定价是为了完美，而特斯拉远非完美，尽管该公司肯定是稳固的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与福特或大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY）等电动汽车业务不断增长的传统企业相比，特斯拉的估值过高，以及特斯拉相对于增长较高的电动汽车同行的估值溢价，让我相信以当前价格来看，该股是一种回避。对于那些做多股票的人来说，锁定收益可能是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?<blockquote>特斯拉的股票预测是否受到Rivian R1T电动卡车的影响？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 15:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants such as the Cybertruck - which recently got delayed.</li> <li>Peers are entering the highly attractive electric truck space way before Tesla, including Rivian with its R1T and Ford with the F-150 Lightning.</li> <li>This could hurt Tesla's brand image as well as its stock price, as Tesla has lost the first-mover advantage in this important future market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf7c15134ff043f2c3df0d488a4f631\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Becker/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉目前没有大型车型系列，因此依赖于最近被推迟的 Cybertruck 等新进入者。</li><li>同行们比特斯拉更早进入极具吸引力的电动卡车领域，包括Rivian的 R1T 和福特的 F-150 Lightning。</li><li>这可能会损害特斯拉的品牌形象及其股价，因为特斯拉已经失去了在这个重要的未来市场的先发优势。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大卫·贝克尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA)is priced for massive growth over the coming years. The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）预计未来几年将实现大幅增长。该公司如今的行业地位很强，但竞争令人担忧。Rivian汽车公司 (RIVN) 的 R1T 卡车将在电动卡车领域获得相当大的份额，这可能会损害特斯拉 Cybertruck 的前景，该卡车距离量产还有大约两年的时间。一般来说，这个空间应该足够大，可以容纳几年后的几名球员，但特斯拉失去先发优势的事实自然不是一个积极因素。总体而言，特斯拉目前的股价似乎相当昂贵，但根据市场情绪，股价仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Rivian Publicly Traded?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian公开交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian汽车公司尚未公开交易。然而，该公司计划在不久的将来上市，因为Rivian几天前已经提交了 THES-1 进行首次公开募股。该公司寻求以约 80 亿美元的价格出售 10% 的股份，这将使公司估值达到 800 亿美元。对于一家最近刚刚开始量产首款车型的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵，但话说回来，Rivian得到了亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等公司的支持，并且拥有引人注目的产品和电动卡车市场的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Is Rivian Different From Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian和特斯拉有什么不同？</b></blockquote></p><p> The two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司活跃在同一行业，但它们之间存在着巨大的差异。最明显的一个是公司的规模和规模——特斯拉目前每年生产约90万辆汽车，而Rivian刚刚开始生产其第一款车型。特斯拉在不同的大洲经营着几家工厂，并拥有一个商店和超级充电站网络，而Rivian的情况并非如此。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，特斯拉雄心勃勃地成为储能、太阳能等领域的主要参与者。这些企业尚未盈利，这限制了这些业务部门的当前价值，但与仅仅是电动汽车制造商的Rivian相比，特斯拉在整个“新能源”行业显然更加多元化。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更大的规模和成熟的运营也导致了另一个重要的区别——与Rivian不同，特斯拉是盈利的，并且能够为其运营和资本支出提供自筹资金，这使其对资本市场的依赖较小。在可预见的未来，Rivian将依赖资本市场为其未来的增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉会受到 Rivian R1T 卡车的影响吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>过去，特斯拉通过两个增长动力可靠地增长了产量和收入：推出新车型和增加现有车型的销量。在过去的几个季度里，特斯拉几乎所有的销量都来自 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量，而 X 和 S 的销量则退居二线。未来的增长可能会受到特斯拉 3 和 Y 车型销量增长的推动，但该公司在一定程度上也依赖于新车型的推出。Roadster 2 不会是一款量产车型，但特斯拉的 Cybertruck 寄予厚望。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 表示，Cybertruck 于 2019 年推出，将于 2022 年底投入生产。然而，大规模生产还有很长的路要走，目标是到 2023 年底，也就是大约两年后。</blockquote></p><p> When we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as pre-production started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到特斯拉经常错过自己的时间表时，无论是机器人出租车、Roadster 2 还是其他产品，Cybertruck 似乎有可能进一步推迟，并且可能不会在 2024 年之前量产。如果特斯拉比目前的预期晚几个月，情况就会如此，这并不令人意外。到那时，Rivian将生产其 R1T 卡车几年，其他卡车也将进入有吸引力的电动卡车市场。例如，福特有望很快将其 F-150 照明产品推向市场，预生产已于 9 月份开始，进入市场只需几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.</p><p><blockquote>来自 Rivian R1T 和福特 F-150 的竞争可能会在多个方面影响特斯拉。首先，相对于竞争对手的产品，Cybertruck 上市时间较晚，这意味着那些非常渴望购买电动卡车的客户将选择Rivian或福特，而不是特斯拉。这些非常热切的客户可能确实包括许多愿意支付高于平均水平价格的客户，这将使福特和Rivian能够吸收两年后特斯拉推出 Cybertruck 时无法获得的购买力。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，R1T 和 F-150 照明将在 Cybertruck 上市之前很久就上路，这一事实可能会损害特斯拉作为主要电动卡车制造商的形象。总体而言，由于其先发优势，特斯拉在电动汽车领域拥有品牌优势。但由于它在卡车领域起步较晚，这种先发优势和不断提高的品牌知名度可能会落入Rivian和福特手中，而不是特斯拉手中。只要 Rivian 和福特的产品让客户满意（这不能保证），卡车买家可能会对Rivian和福特建立品牌忠诚度，从长远来看，这可能会损害特斯拉销售其 Cybertruck 和未来电动卡车的能力。一旦错过了成为先行者的机会，其他人就有了优势，类似于特斯拉今天在销售电动汽车方面的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后但同样重要的是，Rivian和福特的成功推出也可能影响特斯拉的股票估值。如果Rivian和福特都能够在 Cybertruck 发布之前很好地扩大生产规模并销售大量电动卡车，对电动汽车股票感兴趣的投资者可能会开始转向特斯拉。如果Rivian在特斯拉之前成功推出电动卡车，特斯拉的一些现有股东可能会决定选择Rivian，或者在两家公司之间分割投资。这反过来可能会导致对特斯拉股票的需求下降并带来一些抛售压力，这将对特斯拉股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> None of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不能保证，当然，特斯拉有可能超越自己的时间表，并且 Cybertruck 将比预期更早上市。R1T 或 F-150 Lightning 也有可能出现制造问题，这意味着特斯拉有更多时间迎头赶上。但目前看来，Rivian和福特在电动卡车领域处于领先地位，而特斯拉落后于竞争对手自然对该公司及其股票不利。这可能会损害对 Cybertruck 的需求，损害特斯拉作为技术领导者和先行者的品牌形象，并且可能会使其股价相对于其他电动汽车制造商的股价不那么有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> The electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.</p><p><blockquote>电动卡车的空间将足够大，可以让几家公司在几年后表现出色，因此特斯拉的 Cybertruck 落后并不意味着该车型不会卖得好。但了解一家公司在五年后是占据30%的市场份额还是20%的市场份额仍然很重要。由于特斯拉落后于竞争对手，我确实相信特斯拉不太可能像今天主导美国电动汽车领域那样主导美国电动卡车领域。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，特斯拉的销量和收入仍将增长，但增长可能不足以证明当前估值的合理性。特斯拉预计今年的收入将达到 510 亿美元，2022 年将达到 670 亿美元，2023 年将达到 830 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2d74e02403e2b6edbc187bf103c6bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.</p><p><blockquote>这相当于明年的增长率为 31%，2023 年为 24%。请注意，预期收入增长低于特斯拉预期的 50% 平均销量增长，因为当前分析师模型预测特斯拉可能无法实现这一目标，而平均销售价格压缩也可能成为收入增长的阻力。总体而言，当然，与无法实现有意义增长的传统汽车制造商相比，20%-30% 范围内的收入增长仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at 10x 2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稀释后持有 11.2 亿股股票，目前估值为 8,750 亿美元，相当于远期销售倍数为 17。同样，2022 年和 2023 年的销售倍数分别为 13 和 11。这些估值不仅相对于传统汽车制造商来说非常高，甚至相对于其他一些电动汽车制造商来说也是如此。例如，增长速度快于特斯拉的蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）目前的估值均为 2022 年预期收入的 6 倍，略低于特斯拉估值的一半。Lucid（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）是一家相当新的市场进入者，未来几年的相对增长速度应该会超过特斯拉，其估值为 2023 年预期收入的 10 倍，而特斯拉为 2023 年预期收入的 11 倍。总体而言，我确实认为特斯拉的股价以目前的价格计算太贵了。这并不意味着特斯拉是一家糟糕的公司，或者该公司不会产生任何业务增长，但应该始终考虑估值。对我来说，特斯拉在电动卡车领域远远落后于竞争对手的事实是我认为特斯拉目前估值过高的另一个原因——股票定价是为了完美，而特斯拉远非完美，尽管该公司肯定是稳固的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与福特或大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY）等电动汽车业务不断增长的传统企业相比，特斯拉的估值过高，以及特斯拉相对于增长较高的电动汽车同行的估值溢价，让我相信以当前价格来看，该股是一种回避。对于那些做多股票的人来说，锁定收益可能是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458901-tesla-stock-forecast-rivian-r1t-electric-truck\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458901-tesla-stock-forecast-rivian-r1t-electric-truck","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154698505","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants such as the Cybertruck - which recently got delayed.\nPeers are entering the highly attractive electric truck space way before Tesla, including Rivian with its R1T and Ford with the F-150 Lightning.\nThis could hurt Tesla's brand image as well as its stock price, as Tesla has lost the first-mover advantage in this important future market.\n\nDavid Becker/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA)is priced for massive growth over the coming years. The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.\nIs Rivian Publicly Traded?\nRivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.\nHow Is Rivian Different From Tesla?\nThe two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.\nTesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.\nWill Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?\nTesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.\nWhen we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as pre-production started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.\nThe competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.\nOn top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.\nLast but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.\nNone of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.\nIs Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nThe electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.\nTesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:\nData by YCharts\nThis equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.\nWith 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at 10x 2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.\nTesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1713,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821918432"}
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