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2021-10-08

GM need to pick up on the EV segment

Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":823728900,"tweetId":"823728900","gmtCreate":1633664139145,"gmtModify":1633664139584,"author":{"id":3576907825888639,"idStr":"3576907825888639","authorId":3576907825888639,"authorIdStr":"3576907825888639","name":"JerryChiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537811c4027e5f1664a45ab303892cb1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>GM need to pick up on the EV segment&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>GM need to pick up on the EV segment&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823728900","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车过渡和其他技术进步。</li><li>华尔街的共识是，通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（源自期权价格）已转向更加积极的近期前景。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GM）似乎正在经历一个时刻，在向分析师做了鼓舞人心的演讲后，股价今天上涨了 4.5%。该公司概述了其成为电动汽车领导者的计划，以及到 2030 年生产 100 万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动型发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个更高利润率的电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的真正路线图，那么该股应该会要求大幅上涨。毕竟，通用汽车的远期市盈率为 8.8，而特斯拉的远期市盈率为 144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>耐人寻味的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车的转型前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至 71.3 美元，而 2020 年 2 月新冠疫情爆发前为 46.6 美元，2020 年底为 51 美元。按目前 56.30 美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由 Seeking Alpha 计算）是 12 个月价格上涨 26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我最后一次分析通用汽车是在 2021 年 3 月 7 日，也就是七个月前，华尔街的一致前景已经是看涨的，12 个月目标价比当时的股价高出约 20%。在参与 Seeking Alpha 共识展望的 19 位分析师中，17 位看涨，2 位中立。当时我给予通用汽车中性评级，主要是因为期权价格所暗示的前景与华尔街的共识相反，是看跌的。2022 年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性较高。我在看涨的华尔街和看跌的期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给出了中性评级。自从我的帖子发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>过去 7 个月通用汽车与标普500的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格构建概率价格回报展望在概念上很简单。期权价格代表了市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格从现在到期权到期日升至特定水平（执行价格）以上（看涨期权期权）或跌至特定水平（执行价格）以下（看跌期权）的概率的一致估计。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出基础证券的概率前景，使期权价格一致。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求有关这种方法的更多信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型，对该公司进行估值。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且尴尬的挫折。即使人们认同管理层的愿景，人们也可以想象，一些购车者在看到雪佛兰螺栓烧焦的照片后，会不愿意购买通用汽车的电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前比 6 月 8 日设定的 2021 年最高收盘价 63.92 美元低 11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去了 7 个月，市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应积极，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade 对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去 90 天内发布过通用汽车评级和目标价的 13 位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致的 12 个月目标价比当前股价高出 27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的分散性，这降低了对共识价值的信心。13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的共识评级和 12 个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha 版的华尔街共识展望是根据 21 位分析师的评级和目标价计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价比当前股价高出26.7%。只有 1 位分析师持中立态度，其他 20 位分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的共识评级和 12 个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12 个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约 27%。然而，有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的价差较高，这意味着对前景没有太多信心。其次，股价回升的时机难以预测。分析师在三月份也很乐观。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，所有期权均于 2022 年 1 月 21 日到期，以生成未来 3.5 个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析 2022 年 6 月 21 日到期的期权，生成了 2022 年中期（8.3 个月）的市场隐含展望。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴上，回报在横轴上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从即日起至 2022 年 1 月 21 日 3.5 个月期间的市场隐含价格回报率（来源：作者使用 ETrade 期权报价计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>通用汽车从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略微倾向于负回报，对应于-1.5%的价格回报。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我将分布的负回报侧绕纵轴旋转（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从即日起至 2022 年 1 月 21 日 3.5 个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报率。分布的负回报率绕纵轴旋转（来源：作者使用 ETrade 期权报价计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果来说，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线非常接近）。例外情况是小额价格回报（+/- 5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付高于公允价值的费用，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性。这意味着，如果投资者总体上是风险中性的，市场隐含的前景将是公正的。投资者总体上是规避风险的——要求为承担风险支付溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，市场隐含的前景，正回报和负回报之间的概率非常匹配，实际上是一种略微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用 2022 年 6 月 17 日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的 2022 年中期（8.3 个月）的市场隐含前景表现出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这一前景描述为中性，也许略有看跌倾向。该分布得出的年化波幅为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从即日起至 2022 年 6 月 17 日 8.3 个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报率。分布的负回报率绕纵轴旋转（来源：作者使用 ETrade 期权报价计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车目前的市场隐含前景与我在 3 月份之前的分析中截至 2022 年 1 月的 10.6 个月前景进行对比，后者大幅看跌。在这种前景下，负价格回报的概率比正回报的概率要高得多。当前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略微看涨，2022年年中中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速且令人信服地摆脱传统内燃机汽车，转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在 2021 年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级看涨，预计 12 个月价格将升值约 27%。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含的前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动率约为 36%。这是一个相当高的波动性水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为 27%，这看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动性的 1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>按面值计算分析师预期回报率，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对 2022 年初的前景略显乐观，到 2022 年年中转为中性。自 3 月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的市场前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车过渡和其他技术进步。</li><li>华尔街的共识是，通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（源自期权价格）已转向更加积极的近期前景。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GM）似乎正在经历一个时刻，在向分析师做了鼓舞人心的演讲后，股价今天上涨了 4.5%。该公司概述了其成为电动汽车领导者的计划，以及到 2030 年生产 100 万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动型发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个更高利润率的电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的真正路线图，那么该股应该会要求大幅上涨。毕竟，通用汽车的远期市盈率为 8.8，而特斯拉的远期市盈率为 144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>耐人寻味的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车的转型前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至 71.3 美元，而 2020 年 2 月新冠疫情爆发前为 46.6 美元，2020 年底为 51 美元。按目前 56.30 美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由 Seeking Alpha 计算）是 12 个月价格上涨 26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我最后一次分析通用汽车是在 2021 年 3 月 7 日，也就是七个月前，华尔街的一致前景已经是看涨的，12 个月目标价比当时的股价高出约 20%。在参与 Seeking Alpha 共识展望的 19 位分析师中，17 位看涨，2 位中立。当时我给予通用汽车中性评级，主要是因为期权价格所暗示的前景与华尔街的共识相反，是看跌的。2022 年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性较高。我在看涨的华尔街和看跌的期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给出了中性评级。自从我的帖子发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>过去 7 个月通用汽车与标普500的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格构建概率价格回报展望在概念上很简单。期权价格代表了市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格从现在到期权到期日升至特定水平（执行价格）以上（看涨期权期权）或跌至特定水平（执行价格）以下（看跌期权）的概率的一致估计。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出基础证券的概率前景，使期权价格一致。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求有关这种方法的更多信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型，对该公司进行估值。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且尴尬的挫折。即使人们认同管理层的愿景，人们也可以想象，一些购车者在看到雪佛兰螺栓烧焦的照片后，会不愿意购买通用汽车的电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前比 6 月 8 日设定的 2021 年最高收盘价 63.92 美元低 11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去了 7 个月，市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应积极，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade 对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去 90 天内发布过通用汽车评级和目标价的 13 位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致的 12 个月目标价比当前股价高出 27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的分散性，这降低了对共识价值的信心。13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的共识评级和 12 个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha 版的华尔街共识展望是根据 21 位分析师的评级和目标价计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价比当前股价高出26.7%。只有 1 位分析师持中立态度，其他 20 位分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的共识评级和 12 个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12 个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约 27%。然而，有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的价差较高，这意味着对前景没有太多信心。其次，股价回升的时机难以预测。分析师在三月份也很乐观。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，所有期权均于 2022 年 1 月 21 日到期，以生成未来 3.5 个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析 2022 年 6 月 21 日到期的期权，生成了 2022 年中期（8.3 个月）的市场隐含展望。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴上，回报在横轴上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从即日起至 2022 年 1 月 21 日 3.5 个月期间的市场隐含价格回报率（来源：作者使用 ETrade 期权报价计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>通用汽车从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略微倾向于负回报，对应于-1.5%的价格回报。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我将分布的负回报侧绕纵轴旋转（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从即日起至 2022 年 1 月 21 日 3.5 个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报率。分布的负回报率绕纵轴旋转（来源：作者使用 ETrade 期权报价计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果来说，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线非常接近）。例外情况是小额价格回报（+/- 5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付高于公允价值的费用，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性。这意味着，如果投资者总体上是风险中性的，市场隐含的前景将是公正的。投资者总体上是规避风险的——要求为承担风险支付溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，市场隐含的前景，正回报和负回报之间的概率非常匹配，实际上是一种略微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用 2022 年 6 月 17 日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的 2022 年中期（8.3 个月）的市场隐含前景表现出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这一前景描述为中性，也许略有看跌倾向。该分布得出的年化波幅为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从即日起至 2022 年 6 月 17 日 8.3 个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报率。分布的负回报率绕纵轴旋转（来源：作者使用 ETrade 期权报价计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车目前的市场隐含前景与我在 3 月份之前的分析中截至 2022 年 1 月的 10.6 个月前景进行对比，后者大幅看跌。在这种前景下，负价格回报的概率比正回报的概率要高得多。当前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略微看涨，2022年年中中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速且令人信服地摆脱传统内燃机汽车，转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在 2021 年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级看涨，预计 12 个月价格将升值约 27%。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含的前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动率约为 36%。这是一个相当高的波动性水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为 27%，这看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动性的 1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>按面值计算分析师预期回报率，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对 2022 年初的前景略显乐观，到 2022 年年中转为中性。自 3 月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的市场前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4378,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GM"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/823728900"}