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2021-10-11
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Coca-Cola Vs. PepsiCo: Soda Wars<blockquote>可口可乐与百事可乐：汽水大战</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":826059714,"tweetId":"826059714","gmtCreate":1633960513763,"gmtModify":1633960513922,"author":{"id":3579516715925048,"idStr":"3579516715925048","authorId":3579516715925048,"authorIdStr":"3579516715925048","name":"lee1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a0ecabeae2d32250fce1eb7e612d3d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","text":"Like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826059714","repostId":1161933729,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161933729","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633958941,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161933729?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 21:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coca-Cola Vs. PepsiCo: Soda Wars<blockquote>可口可乐与百事可乐：汽水大战</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161933729","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPEP and KO are peers, but there are still major differences when it comes to product lineup","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PEP and KO are peers, but there are still major differences when it comes to product lineups, past performance, etc.</li> <li>Investors should note the approach to shareholder returns that the two companies employ. PEP looks significantly stronger than KO in that regard.</li> <li>Shares should never be bought without considering valuation, and neither of the two companies is especially cheap today.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6553924a83f82941c04031f70a5bd30a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>subjug/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PEP和KO是同行，但在产品阵容、过往业绩等方面仍存在较大差异。</li><li>投资者应注意两家公司采用的股东回报方法。在这方面，PEP看起来明显比KO强。</li><li>在不考虑估值的情况下，永远不应该购买股票，而且这两家公司今天都不是特别便宜。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>subjug/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) are well-liked consumer staples companies that are widely owned among retail investors due to their reliable dividends. The two differ in terms of their product lineups, relative growth outlook, dividend growth properties, and capital allocation, however. We'll pitch them against each other in this report to see what company ultimately is the better choice.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐（KO）和百事可乐（PEP）是广受欢迎的必需消费品公司，由于其可靠的股息而被散户投资者广泛持有。然而，两者在产品阵容、相对增长前景、股息增长特性和资本配置方面有所不同。我们将在本报告中让它们相互竞争，看看哪家公司最终是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola And PepsiCo: Peers, But There Are Important Differences</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐和百事可乐：同行，但存在重要差异</b></blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are mostly known for their famous sodas. Coca-Cola, Sprite, etc. are owned by Coca-Cola, while PepsiCo owns Pepsi, Mountain Dew, etc. Importantly, Coca-Cola is an entirely drinks-focused company, while PepsiCo also owns a sizeable snacks business, which is the first key differentiator between the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐和百事可乐最出名的是他们著名的苏打水。可口可乐、雪碧等。归可口可乐所有，而百事可乐拥有百事可乐、激浪等。重要的是，可口可乐是一家完全专注于饮料的公司，而百事可乐还拥有相当规模的零食业务，这是两家公司之间的第一个关键差异化因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c96e7cde4814796e251f1adad9d4a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo's more diversified business, which gives the company exposure to higher-growth product categories such as snacks, explains why PepsiCo has been able to grow its revenue reliably over the last couple of years. The company's top line rose by more than 20% in total, reaching $77 billion, while Coca-Cola has suffered from a<i>decline</i>in its revenue over the same time.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司更加多元化的业务使该公司能够接触到零食等高增长的产品类别，这解释了为什么百事公司在过去几年中能够可靠地增长收入。该公司的营收总额增长了20%以上，达到770亿美元，而可口可乐则遭受了<i>下降</i>同期的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola's top line was also impacted by refranchising efforts, but even adjusted for that, KO clearly underperformed PepsiCo. This is also visible when we look at the performance during the pandemic: PepsiCo was able to grow its revenue reliably, and revenues during the last year were considerably higher than before the crisis. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, was not able to grow its revenue and experienced meaningful sales headwinds.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐的营收也受到了重新特许经营努力的影响，但即使进行了调整，KO的表现也明显落后于百事可乐。当我们观察大流行期间的表现时，这一点也很明显：百事可乐能够可靠地增长其收入，并且去年的收入远高于危机前。与此同时，可口可乐未能增加收入，并经历了严重的销售阻力。</blockquote></p><p> This can be explained by the fact that PepsiCo's product portfolio is more diversified overall, and on top of that, its snacks business continued to do very well during lockdowns when consumers spent more time at home. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, with its larger dependence on soft drinks, was feeling a larger impact -- festivals, sports tournaments, and other large-scale events were canceled, which led to reduced soft drink consumption.</p><p><blockquote>这可以解释为百事公司的产品组合总体上更加多元化，最重要的是，在消费者花更多时间在家的封锁期间，其零食业务继续表现良好。与此同时，由于对软饮料的依赖较大，可口可乐感受到了更大的影响——节日、体育比赛和其他大型活动被取消，这导致软饮料消费减少。</blockquote></p><p> When people stay home, locked down, they still consume a lot of chips, tortillas, etc., while they consume less carbonated drinks - which gave PepsiCo the advantage during the last six quarters, and which is why PepsiCo is the more resilient company among these two.</p><p><blockquote>当人们呆在家里，被锁起来时，他们仍然会消耗大量的薯片、玉米饼等。，而他们消耗的碳酸饮料较少——这让百事可乐在过去六个季度中占据了优势，这也是为什么百事可乐是这两家公司中更具弹性的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the 10-year growth performance of the two companies, we see that PepsiCo has, again, outperformed its larger peer (in terms of market capitalization):</p><p><blockquote>看看这两家公司10年的增长表现，我们发现百事可乐的表现再次优于其规模较大的同行（就市值而言）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03f8978550c406b5fa7ab8bddfc26bc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo delivered a 46% earnings per share increase over the last decade, which isn't especially attractive, but the company at least generated a mid-single-digit annual growth rate. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, did not generate any earnings per share growth at all, which is quite underwhelming.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司在过去十年中每股收益增长了46%，这并不是特别有吸引力，但该公司至少实现了中个位数的年增长率。与此同时，可口可乐的每股收益根本没有增长，这一点相当令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at current expectations for the coming years, the two companies are expected to showcase relatively similar growth. Coca-Cola is forecasted to grow its earnings per share from $2.25 in 2021 to $3.02 in 2025, while PepsiCo is forecasted to grow its earnings per share from $6.24 in 2021 to $8.06 in 2025 - which pencils out to a four-year increase of around 30% for both companies.</p><p><blockquote>从目前对未来几年的预期来看，两家公司预计将呈现相对相似的增长。可口可乐的每股收益预计将从2021年的2.25美元增长到2025年的3.02美元，而百事可乐的每股收益预计将从2021年的6.24美元增长到2025年的8.06美元——这两家公司的四年增幅约为30%。</blockquote></p><p> If both companies manage to hit current analyst predictions, they would both grow meaningfully faster than they did over the last decade, as annual growth in the high-single-digits has not been achieved by either company.</p><p><blockquote>如果两家公司都能达到当前分析师的预测，它们的增长速度都将明显快于过去十年，因为两家公司都没有实现高个位数的年增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Especially in Coca-Cola's case, it seems somewhat questionable to assume that the company will grow its earnings per share this reliably when the company has not delivered any growth over the last decade. It can, however, be argued that Coca-Cola, due to its more drinks-focused product lineup, might benefit more from global reopening in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>尤其是在可口可乐的案例中，在该公司过去十年没有实现任何增长的情况下，假设该公司的每股收益会如此可靠地增长似乎有些问题。然而，可以说，可口可乐由于其更专注于饮料的产品阵容，可能会从2022年及以后的全球重新开放中受益更多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The growth outlook for the global carbonated soft drinks market and the growth outlook for the global snacks market are relatively similar, at 3%-4% a year through the next couple of years. Translating this market growth into a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate is possible, but far from certain. It would require constant market share, which is not guaranteed, and additional tailwinds from either margin expansion or share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>全球碳酸软饮料市场的增长前景和全球零食市场的增长前景相对相似，未来几年每年增长3%-4%。将这种市场增长转化为高个位数的每股收益增长率是可能的，但远非确定。这需要持续的市场份额（这是无法保证的），以及利润率扩张或股票回购带来的额外推动力。</blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo has somewhat lower gross margins today, at around 55%, whereas Coca-Cola's gross margins are in the low 60s. One could argue that PepsiCo might have more success in expanding its gross margins over the coming years, as Coca-Cola's margins already seem pretty maxed out. Even in PEP's case, further margin expansion is far from certain, however. Overall, I do believe that current growth estimates by the analyst community might be a little aggressive for both companies, and would not be surprised if both do actually grow their profits a little less than expected -- if history is a guide, that seems quite likely.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐目前的毛利率略低，约为55%，而可口可乐的毛利率在60%左右。有人可能会说，百事可乐在未来几年扩大毛利率方面可能会取得更大成功，因为可口可乐的利润率似乎已经达到了极限。然而，即使就PEP而言，利润率的进一步扩张也远未确定。总体而言，我确实认为分析师界目前对两家公司的增长预期可能有点激进，如果两家公司的利润增长确实略低于预期，我也不会感到惊讶——如果以史为鉴，这似乎很有可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Returns: PEP Versus KO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东回报：PEP与KO</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are owned by many retail investors, for their above-average dividend yields and decades-long dividend growth track records. At current prices, PEP offers a dividend yield of 2.8%, whereas KO offers a dividend yield of 3.1%. At first sight, Coca-Cola is thus the better income investment, but additional factors should be considered.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都由许多散户投资者持有，因为它们的股息收益率高于平均水平，并且拥有数十年的股息增长记录。按当前价格计算，PEP的股息收益率为2.8%，而KO的股息收益率为3.1%。乍一看，可口可乐因此是更好的收入投资，但应该考虑其他因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on current earnings per share estimates for 2021, PepsiCo will pay out 69% of its profits this year, whereas the payout ratio for Coca-Cola is 75%. This means that PepsiCo's dividend looks a little more secure, and on top of that, PepsiCo has more potential to raise its dividend through increases in its payout ratio. PepsiCo's better crisis performance thanks to a more diversified and resilient product portfolio further underlines the fact that its dividend seems to be even more secure than that of Coca-Cola -- although KO's shareholders don't really have to worry about a dividend cut, either.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前对2021年每股收益的预测，百事可乐今年将支付69%的利润，而可口可乐的支付率为75%。这意味着百事公司的股息看起来更安全一些，最重要的是，百事公司有更大的潜力通过提高派息率来提高股息。由于产品组合更加多元化和有弹性，百事可乐在危机中表现更好，这进一步凸显了这样一个事实：其股息似乎比可口可乐更安全——尽管KO的股东也不必真正担心股息削减。</blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo also has delivered better dividend growth than Coca-Cola over the last couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，百事可乐的股息增长也比可口可乐更好：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8368b7a904b64e298f7f1b57633ec7a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PEP's 5-year dividend growth rate is a little over 7%, whereas KO only hiked its dividend by 3.7% a year, on average. This is, at least partially, the result of KO's weaker earnings growth and its higher payout ratio - PepsiCo, thanks to better growth and a lower payout ratio, had more potential to reward its owners through generous dividend increases. If analysts are correct and earnings growth will be relatively similar between these two, one could imagine that dividend growth will be relatively close over the coming years as well. PepsiCo, due to its lower payout ratio, still should be able to serve up somewhat higher dividend increases, although the gap versus KO's dividend growth rate should narrow.</p><p><blockquote>PEP的5年股息增长率略高于7%，而KO的股息平均每年仅提高3.7%。这至少在一定程度上是KO盈利增长疲软和派息率较高的结果——由于增长较好和派息率较低，百事可乐有更大的潜力通过慷慨增加股息来回报其所有者。如果分析师是正确的，并且两者之间的盈利增长相对相似，那么可以想象未来几年的股息增长也将相对接近。百事公司由于派息率较低，仍然应该能够提供稍高的股息增幅，尽管与KO的股息增长率的差距应该会缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Executives can also return cash to the company's owners through stock buybacks. Looking at the share count of the two companies over the last three years, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>高管还可以通过股票回购向公司所有者返还现金。纵观这两家公司过去三年的股票数量，我们可以看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538b104f1ea3dd9974e487d12945330f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo has reduced its share count by a couple of percentage points, which does translate into a small earnings per share tailwind, all else equal. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, has seen its share count rise over the years, which is what we would expect from a high-growth tech company, but not from a mature consumer staples company. KO has actually spent money repurchasing shares ($100 million in H1 2021, and a similar amount during H1 2020, according to its 10-Q), but the company has issued so many shares that its share count has still been growing.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，百事公司的股票数量减少了几个百分点，这确实转化为每股收益的小幅顺风。与此同时，可口可乐的股票数量多年来一直在上升，这是我们对一家高增长科技公司的期望，但不是对一家成熟的消费品公司的期望。KO实际上已经花钱回购股票（根据其10-Q，2021年上半年为1亿美元，2020年上半年为类似金额），但该公司发行了如此多的股票，其股票数量仍在增长。</blockquote></p><p> This seems relatively shareholder-unfriendly, and the ongoing dilution - despite cash being diverted to buybacks - plays a role in KO's weak earnings per share growth rate, relative to its peer. If this trend doesn't change, I personally do believe that this could result in further underperformance of KO on a per-share basis - as mentioned above, current analyst estimates might be too bullish.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎对股东相对不友好，而且持续的稀释——尽管现金被转移到回购——是KO相对于同行疲弱的每股收益增长率的原因之一。如果这种趋势不改变，我个人确实认为这可能会导致KO的每股表现进一步不佳——如上所述，目前分析师的估计可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> When we look at insider trades, we see that PEP seems to be a better buy in the eyes of its executives relative to KO:</p><p><blockquote>当我们查看内幕交易时，我们发现在其高管眼中，相对于KO，PEP似乎是更好的买入对象：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb6629696b766c6105cc1a8828ba7f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nasdaq.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：纳斯达克网</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> PepsiCo's insiders have bought more shares than they sold over the last 3 months and the last twelve months. On a net basis, buying activity has not been overly high, but it still is a positive sign that insiders seem to see value in PEP stock.</p><p><blockquote>在过去3个月和过去12个月中，百事公司内部人士购买的股票多于出售的股票。从净值来看，购买活动并没有过高，但这仍然是一个积极的迹象，表明内部人士似乎看到了PEP股票的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola's insiders, meanwhile, have been on a selling spree:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，可口可乐的内部人士一直在疯狂抛售：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322ad43e9eabcff9dd328a092844d7e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nasdaq.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：纳斯达克网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both over the last three months, as well as over the last year, insiders sold way more shares than they bought. This suggests that insiders do not see too much value in KO's stock. At the same time, this could be the result of massive share issuance to management that is rapidly turned into cash, which would also explain why KO's share count has been climbing while PEP's share count declined.</p><p><blockquote>无论是在过去三个月还是去年，内部人士出售的股票都远远多于他们购买的股票。这表明内部人士认为KO的股票没有太大价值。同时，这可能是向管理层大量发行股票并迅速转化为现金的结果，这也可以解释为什么KO的股票数量一直在攀升，而PEP的股票数量却在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, PEP seems like the more shareholder-friendly company where insiders are better aligned with owners. At the same time, in the eyes of those that own the company very well, PEP seems to be more attractively priced -- otherwise execs wouldn't be buying more than they are selling. Coca-Cola does, however, offer a slightly higher dividend yield, which might be the deciding factor for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，PEP似乎是一家对股东更友好的公司，内部人士与所有者的关系更好。与此同时，在那些拥有该公司的人看来，PEP的价格似乎更具吸引力——否则高管们的买入量不会超过卖出量。然而，可口可乐确实提供了略高的股息收益率，这可能是一些投资者的决定性因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Is The Better Stock To Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买哪个股票比较好？</b></blockquote></p><p> Both KO and PEP offer a sizeable dividend yield, both companies are active in a relatively resilient industry, and both companies are forecasted to grow at a relatively similar rate over the coming years. Due to its lower dividend payout ratio, higher dividend growth, better track record, declining share count, and due to recent insider buying, I still believe that PEP is the slightly stronger pick right here. PEP's better diversification and its stronger crisis performance are also attractive qualities.</p><p><blockquote>KO和PEP都提供可观的股息收益率，两家公司都活跃在相对有弹性的行业中，预计两家公司在未来几年将以相对相似的速度增长。由于其较低的股息支付率、较高的股息增长、较好的业绩记录、股票数量下降以及最近的内部购买，我仍然认为PEP是稍强的选择。PEP更好的多元化和更强的危机表现也是有吸引力的品质。</blockquote></p><p> KO, meanwhile, has underperformed for many years, and due to ongoing shareholder dilution, it seems far from guaranteed that it will be able to close the gap versus PEP when it comes to earnings per share growth. Insiders also do not seem to have a lot of trust in the company's future performance, as they have been selling way more shares than they bought in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，KO多年来表现不佳，而且由于持续的股东稀释，似乎远不能保证它能够在每股收益增长方面缩小与PEP的差距。业内人士对公司未来的业绩似乎没有多少信心，因为他们卖出的股票比最近买入的多。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, at a mid-20s earnings multiple, neither of the two companies look especially inexpensive. Investors may want to wait for a better buying opportunity to emerge instead of paying a quite high price for a slow-moving mature company. I am thus slightly more bullish on PEP, but do not consider it a great buy at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，以20多岁左右的市盈率来看，这两家公司看起来都不是特别便宜。投资者可能希望等待更好的买入机会出现，而不是为一家行动缓慢的成熟公司支付相当高的价格。因此，我稍微看好PEP，但不认为以当前价格买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coca-Cola Vs. PepsiCo: Soda Wars<blockquote>可口可乐与百事可乐：汽水大战</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoca-Cola Vs. PepsiCo: Soda Wars<blockquote>可口可乐与百事可乐：汽水大战</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 21:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PEP and KO are peers, but there are still major differences when it comes to product lineups, past performance, etc.</li> <li>Investors should note the approach to shareholder returns that the two companies employ. PEP looks significantly stronger than KO in that regard.</li> <li>Shares should never be bought without considering valuation, and neither of the two companies is especially cheap today.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6553924a83f82941c04031f70a5bd30a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>subjug/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PEP和KO是同行，但在产品阵容、过往业绩等方面仍存在较大差异。</li><li>投资者应注意两家公司采用的股东回报方法。在这方面，PEP看起来明显比KO强。</li><li>在不考虑估值的情况下，永远不应该购买股票，而且这两家公司今天都不是特别便宜。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>subjug/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) are well-liked consumer staples companies that are widely owned among retail investors due to their reliable dividends. The two differ in terms of their product lineups, relative growth outlook, dividend growth properties, and capital allocation, however. We'll pitch them against each other in this report to see what company ultimately is the better choice.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐（KO）和百事可乐（PEP）是广受欢迎的必需消费品公司，由于其可靠的股息而被散户投资者广泛持有。然而，两者在产品阵容、相对增长前景、股息增长特性和资本配置方面有所不同。我们将在本报告中让它们相互竞争，看看哪家公司最终是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola And PepsiCo: Peers, But There Are Important Differences</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐和百事可乐：同行，但存在重要差异</b></blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are mostly known for their famous sodas. Coca-Cola, Sprite, etc. are owned by Coca-Cola, while PepsiCo owns Pepsi, Mountain Dew, etc. Importantly, Coca-Cola is an entirely drinks-focused company, while PepsiCo also owns a sizeable snacks business, which is the first key differentiator between the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐和百事可乐最出名的是他们著名的苏打水。可口可乐、雪碧等。归可口可乐所有，而百事可乐拥有百事可乐、激浪等。重要的是，可口可乐是一家完全专注于饮料的公司，而百事可乐还拥有相当规模的零食业务，这是两家公司之间的第一个关键差异化因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c96e7cde4814796e251f1adad9d4a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo's more diversified business, which gives the company exposure to higher-growth product categories such as snacks, explains why PepsiCo has been able to grow its revenue reliably over the last couple of years. The company's top line rose by more than 20% in total, reaching $77 billion, while Coca-Cola has suffered from a<i>decline</i>in its revenue over the same time.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司更加多元化的业务使该公司能够接触到零食等高增长的产品类别，这解释了为什么百事公司在过去几年中能够可靠地增长收入。该公司的营收总额增长了20%以上，达到770亿美元，而可口可乐则遭受了<i>下降</i>同期的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola's top line was also impacted by refranchising efforts, but even adjusted for that, KO clearly underperformed PepsiCo. This is also visible when we look at the performance during the pandemic: PepsiCo was able to grow its revenue reliably, and revenues during the last year were considerably higher than before the crisis. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, was not able to grow its revenue and experienced meaningful sales headwinds.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐的营收也受到了重新特许经营努力的影响，但即使进行了调整，KO的表现也明显落后于百事可乐。当我们观察大流行期间的表现时，这一点也很明显：百事可乐能够可靠地增长其收入，并且去年的收入远高于危机前。与此同时，可口可乐未能增加收入，并经历了严重的销售阻力。</blockquote></p><p> This can be explained by the fact that PepsiCo's product portfolio is more diversified overall, and on top of that, its snacks business continued to do very well during lockdowns when consumers spent more time at home. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, with its larger dependence on soft drinks, was feeling a larger impact -- festivals, sports tournaments, and other large-scale events were canceled, which led to reduced soft drink consumption.</p><p><blockquote>这可以解释为百事公司的产品组合总体上更加多元化，最重要的是，在消费者花更多时间在家的封锁期间，其零食业务继续表现良好。与此同时，由于对软饮料的依赖较大，可口可乐感受到了更大的影响——节日、体育比赛和其他大型活动被取消，这导致软饮料消费减少。</blockquote></p><p> When people stay home, locked down, they still consume a lot of chips, tortillas, etc., while they consume less carbonated drinks - which gave PepsiCo the advantage during the last six quarters, and which is why PepsiCo is the more resilient company among these two.</p><p><blockquote>当人们呆在家里，被锁起来时，他们仍然会消耗大量的薯片、玉米饼等。，而他们消耗的碳酸饮料较少——这让百事可乐在过去六个季度中占据了优势，这也是为什么百事可乐是这两家公司中更具弹性的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the 10-year growth performance of the two companies, we see that PepsiCo has, again, outperformed its larger peer (in terms of market capitalization):</p><p><blockquote>看看这两家公司10年的增长表现，我们发现百事可乐的表现再次优于其规模较大的同行（就市值而言）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03f8978550c406b5fa7ab8bddfc26bc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo delivered a 46% earnings per share increase over the last decade, which isn't especially attractive, but the company at least generated a mid-single-digit annual growth rate. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, did not generate any earnings per share growth at all, which is quite underwhelming.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司在过去十年中每股收益增长了46%，这并不是特别有吸引力，但该公司至少实现了中个位数的年增长率。与此同时，可口可乐的每股收益根本没有增长，这一点相当令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at current expectations for the coming years, the two companies are expected to showcase relatively similar growth. Coca-Cola is forecasted to grow its earnings per share from $2.25 in 2021 to $3.02 in 2025, while PepsiCo is forecasted to grow its earnings per share from $6.24 in 2021 to $8.06 in 2025 - which pencils out to a four-year increase of around 30% for both companies.</p><p><blockquote>从目前对未来几年的预期来看，两家公司预计将呈现相对相似的增长。可口可乐的每股收益预计将从2021年的2.25美元增长到2025年的3.02美元，而百事可乐的每股收益预计将从2021年的6.24美元增长到2025年的8.06美元——这两家公司的四年增幅约为30%。</blockquote></p><p> If both companies manage to hit current analyst predictions, they would both grow meaningfully faster than they did over the last decade, as annual growth in the high-single-digits has not been achieved by either company.</p><p><blockquote>如果两家公司都能达到当前分析师的预测，它们的增长速度都将明显快于过去十年，因为两家公司都没有实现高个位数的年增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Especially in Coca-Cola's case, it seems somewhat questionable to assume that the company will grow its earnings per share this reliably when the company has not delivered any growth over the last decade. It can, however, be argued that Coca-Cola, due to its more drinks-focused product lineup, might benefit more from global reopening in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>尤其是在可口可乐的案例中，在该公司过去十年没有实现任何增长的情况下，假设该公司的每股收益会如此可靠地增长似乎有些问题。然而，可以说，可口可乐由于其更专注于饮料的产品阵容，可能会从2022年及以后的全球重新开放中受益更多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The growth outlook for the global carbonated soft drinks market and the growth outlook for the global snacks market are relatively similar, at 3%-4% a year through the next couple of years. Translating this market growth into a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate is possible, but far from certain. It would require constant market share, which is not guaranteed, and additional tailwinds from either margin expansion or share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>全球碳酸软饮料市场的增长前景和全球零食市场的增长前景相对相似，未来几年每年增长3%-4%。将这种市场增长转化为高个位数的每股收益增长率是可能的，但远非确定。这需要持续的市场份额（这是无法保证的），以及利润率扩张或股票回购带来的额外推动力。</blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo has somewhat lower gross margins today, at around 55%, whereas Coca-Cola's gross margins are in the low 60s. One could argue that PepsiCo might have more success in expanding its gross margins over the coming years, as Coca-Cola's margins already seem pretty maxed out. Even in PEP's case, further margin expansion is far from certain, however. Overall, I do believe that current growth estimates by the analyst community might be a little aggressive for both companies, and would not be surprised if both do actually grow their profits a little less than expected -- if history is a guide, that seems quite likely.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐目前的毛利率略低，约为55%，而可口可乐的毛利率在60%左右。有人可能会说，百事可乐在未来几年扩大毛利率方面可能会取得更大成功，因为可口可乐的利润率似乎已经达到了极限。然而，即使就PEP而言，利润率的进一步扩张也远未确定。总体而言，我确实认为分析师界目前对两家公司的增长预期可能有点激进，如果两家公司的利润增长确实略低于预期，我也不会感到惊讶——如果以史为鉴，这似乎很有可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Returns: PEP Versus KO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东回报：PEP与KO</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are owned by many retail investors, for their above-average dividend yields and decades-long dividend growth track records. At current prices, PEP offers a dividend yield of 2.8%, whereas KO offers a dividend yield of 3.1%. At first sight, Coca-Cola is thus the better income investment, but additional factors should be considered.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都由许多散户投资者持有，因为它们的股息收益率高于平均水平，并且拥有数十年的股息增长记录。按当前价格计算，PEP的股息收益率为2.8%，而KO的股息收益率为3.1%。乍一看，可口可乐因此是更好的收入投资，但应该考虑其他因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on current earnings per share estimates for 2021, PepsiCo will pay out 69% of its profits this year, whereas the payout ratio for Coca-Cola is 75%. This means that PepsiCo's dividend looks a little more secure, and on top of that, PepsiCo has more potential to raise its dividend through increases in its payout ratio. PepsiCo's better crisis performance thanks to a more diversified and resilient product portfolio further underlines the fact that its dividend seems to be even more secure than that of Coca-Cola -- although KO's shareholders don't really have to worry about a dividend cut, either.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前对2021年每股收益的预测，百事可乐今年将支付69%的利润，而可口可乐的支付率为75%。这意味着百事公司的股息看起来更安全一些，最重要的是，百事公司有更大的潜力通过提高派息率来提高股息。由于产品组合更加多元化和有弹性，百事可乐在危机中表现更好，这进一步凸显了这样一个事实：其股息似乎比可口可乐更安全——尽管KO的股东也不必真正担心股息削减。</blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo also has delivered better dividend growth than Coca-Cola over the last couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，百事可乐的股息增长也比可口可乐更好：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8368b7a904b64e298f7f1b57633ec7a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PEP's 5-year dividend growth rate is a little over 7%, whereas KO only hiked its dividend by 3.7% a year, on average. This is, at least partially, the result of KO's weaker earnings growth and its higher payout ratio - PepsiCo, thanks to better growth and a lower payout ratio, had more potential to reward its owners through generous dividend increases. If analysts are correct and earnings growth will be relatively similar between these two, one could imagine that dividend growth will be relatively close over the coming years as well. PepsiCo, due to its lower payout ratio, still should be able to serve up somewhat higher dividend increases, although the gap versus KO's dividend growth rate should narrow.</p><p><blockquote>PEP的5年股息增长率略高于7%，而KO的股息平均每年仅提高3.7%。这至少在一定程度上是KO盈利增长疲软和派息率较高的结果——由于增长较好和派息率较低，百事可乐有更大的潜力通过慷慨增加股息来回报其所有者。如果分析师是正确的，并且两者之间的盈利增长相对相似，那么可以想象未来几年的股息增长也将相对接近。百事公司由于派息率较低，仍然应该能够提供稍高的股息增幅，尽管与KO的股息增长率的差距应该会缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Executives can also return cash to the company's owners through stock buybacks. Looking at the share count of the two companies over the last three years, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>高管还可以通过股票回购向公司所有者返还现金。纵观这两家公司过去三年的股票数量，我们可以看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538b104f1ea3dd9974e487d12945330f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo has reduced its share count by a couple of percentage points, which does translate into a small earnings per share tailwind, all else equal. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, has seen its share count rise over the years, which is what we would expect from a high-growth tech company, but not from a mature consumer staples company. KO has actually spent money repurchasing shares ($100 million in H1 2021, and a similar amount during H1 2020, according to its 10-Q), but the company has issued so many shares that its share count has still been growing.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，百事公司的股票数量减少了几个百分点，这确实转化为每股收益的小幅顺风。与此同时，可口可乐的股票数量多年来一直在上升，这是我们对一家高增长科技公司的期望，但不是对一家成熟的消费品公司的期望。KO实际上已经花钱回购股票（根据其10-Q，2021年上半年为1亿美元，2020年上半年为类似金额），但该公司发行了如此多的股票，其股票数量仍在增长。</blockquote></p><p> This seems relatively shareholder-unfriendly, and the ongoing dilution - despite cash being diverted to buybacks - plays a role in KO's weak earnings per share growth rate, relative to its peer. If this trend doesn't change, I personally do believe that this could result in further underperformance of KO on a per-share basis - as mentioned above, current analyst estimates might be too bullish.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎对股东相对不友好，而且持续的稀释——尽管现金被转移到回购——是KO相对于同行疲弱的每股收益增长率的原因之一。如果这种趋势不改变，我个人确实认为这可能会导致KO的每股表现进一步不佳——如上所述，目前分析师的估计可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> When we look at insider trades, we see that PEP seems to be a better buy in the eyes of its executives relative to KO:</p><p><blockquote>当我们查看内幕交易时，我们发现在其高管眼中，相对于KO，PEP似乎是更好的买入对象：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb6629696b766c6105cc1a8828ba7f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nasdaq.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：纳斯达克网</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> PepsiCo's insiders have bought more shares than they sold over the last 3 months and the last twelve months. On a net basis, buying activity has not been overly high, but it still is a positive sign that insiders seem to see value in PEP stock.</p><p><blockquote>在过去3个月和过去12个月中，百事公司内部人士购买的股票多于出售的股票。从净值来看，购买活动并没有过高，但这仍然是一个积极的迹象，表明内部人士似乎看到了PEP股票的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola's insiders, meanwhile, have been on a selling spree:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，可口可乐的内部人士一直在疯狂抛售：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322ad43e9eabcff9dd328a092844d7e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nasdaq.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：纳斯达克网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both over the last three months, as well as over the last year, insiders sold way more shares than they bought. This suggests that insiders do not see too much value in KO's stock. At the same time, this could be the result of massive share issuance to management that is rapidly turned into cash, which would also explain why KO's share count has been climbing while PEP's share count declined.</p><p><blockquote>无论是在过去三个月还是去年，内部人士出售的股票都远远多于他们购买的股票。这表明内部人士认为KO的股票没有太大价值。同时，这可能是向管理层大量发行股票并迅速转化为现金的结果，这也可以解释为什么KO的股票数量一直在攀升，而PEP的股票数量却在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, PEP seems like the more shareholder-friendly company where insiders are better aligned with owners. At the same time, in the eyes of those that own the company very well, PEP seems to be more attractively priced -- otherwise execs wouldn't be buying more than they are selling. Coca-Cola does, however, offer a slightly higher dividend yield, which might be the deciding factor for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，PEP似乎是一家对股东更友好的公司，内部人士与所有者的关系更好。与此同时，在那些拥有该公司的人看来，PEP的价格似乎更具吸引力——否则高管们的买入量不会超过卖出量。然而，可口可乐确实提供了略高的股息收益率，这可能是一些投资者的决定性因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Is The Better Stock To Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买哪个股票比较好？</b></blockquote></p><p> Both KO and PEP offer a sizeable dividend yield, both companies are active in a relatively resilient industry, and both companies are forecasted to grow at a relatively similar rate over the coming years. Due to its lower dividend payout ratio, higher dividend growth, better track record, declining share count, and due to recent insider buying, I still believe that PEP is the slightly stronger pick right here. PEP's better diversification and its stronger crisis performance are also attractive qualities.</p><p><blockquote>KO和PEP都提供可观的股息收益率，两家公司都活跃在相对有弹性的行业中，预计两家公司在未来几年将以相对相似的速度增长。由于其较低的股息支付率、较高的股息增长、较好的业绩记录、股票数量下降以及最近的内部购买，我仍然认为PEP是稍强的选择。PEP更好的多元化和更强的危机表现也是有吸引力的品质。</blockquote></p><p> KO, meanwhile, has underperformed for many years, and due to ongoing shareholder dilution, it seems far from guaranteed that it will be able to close the gap versus PEP when it comes to earnings per share growth. Insiders also do not seem to have a lot of trust in the company's future performance, as they have been selling way more shares than they bought in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，KO多年来表现不佳，而且由于持续的股东稀释，似乎远不能保证它能够在每股收益增长方面缩小与PEP的差距。业内人士对公司未来的业绩似乎没有多少信心，因为他们卖出的股票比最近买入的多。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, at a mid-20s earnings multiple, neither of the two companies look especially inexpensive. Investors may want to wait for a better buying opportunity to emerge instead of paying a quite high price for a slow-moving mature company. I am thus slightly more bullish on PEP, but do not consider it a great buy at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，以20多岁左右的市盈率来看，这两家公司看起来都不是特别便宜。投资者可能希望等待更好的买入机会出现，而不是为一家行动缓慢的成熟公司支付相当高的价格。因此，我稍微看好PEP，但不认为以当前价格买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459128-coca-cola-versus-pepsico-soda-wars\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐","PEP":"百事可乐"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459128-coca-cola-versus-pepsico-soda-wars","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161933729","content_text":"Summary\n\nPEP and KO are peers, but there are still major differences when it comes to product lineups, past performance, etc.\nInvestors should note the approach to shareholder returns that the two companies employ. PEP looks significantly stronger than KO in that regard.\nShares should never be bought without considering valuation, and neither of the two companies is especially cheap today.\n\nsubjug/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nCoca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) are well-liked consumer staples companies that are widely owned among retail investors due to their reliable dividends. The two differ in terms of their product lineups, relative growth outlook, dividend growth properties, and capital allocation, however. We'll pitch them against each other in this report to see what company ultimately is the better choice.\nCoca-Cola And PepsiCo: Peers, But There Are Important Differences\nCoca-Cola and PepsiCo are mostly known for their famous sodas. Coca-Cola, Sprite, etc. are owned by Coca-Cola, while PepsiCo owns Pepsi, Mountain Dew, etc. Importantly, Coca-Cola is an entirely drinks-focused company, while PepsiCo also owns a sizeable snacks business, which is the first key differentiator between the two companies.\nData by YCharts\nPepsiCo's more diversified business, which gives the company exposure to higher-growth product categories such as snacks, explains why PepsiCo has been able to grow its revenue reliably over the last couple of years. The company's top line rose by more than 20% in total, reaching $77 billion, while Coca-Cola has suffered from adeclinein its revenue over the same time.\nCoca-Cola's top line was also impacted by refranchising efforts, but even adjusted for that, KO clearly underperformed PepsiCo. This is also visible when we look at the performance during the pandemic: PepsiCo was able to grow its revenue reliably, and revenues during the last year were considerably higher than before the crisis. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, was not able to grow its revenue and experienced meaningful sales headwinds.\nThis can be explained by the fact that PepsiCo's product portfolio is more diversified overall, and on top of that, its snacks business continued to do very well during lockdowns when consumers spent more time at home. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, with its larger dependence on soft drinks, was feeling a larger impact -- festivals, sports tournaments, and other large-scale events were canceled, which led to reduced soft drink consumption.\nWhen people stay home, locked down, they still consume a lot of chips, tortillas, etc., while they consume less carbonated drinks - which gave PepsiCo the advantage during the last six quarters, and which is why PepsiCo is the more resilient company among these two.\nLooking at the 10-year growth performance of the two companies, we see that PepsiCo has, again, outperformed its larger peer (in terms of market capitalization):\nData by YCharts\nPepsiCo delivered a 46% earnings per share increase over the last decade, which isn't especially attractive, but the company at least generated a mid-single-digit annual growth rate. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, did not generate any earnings per share growth at all, which is quite underwhelming.\nLooking at current expectations for the coming years, the two companies are expected to showcase relatively similar growth. Coca-Cola is forecasted to grow its earnings per share from $2.25 in 2021 to $3.02 in 2025, while PepsiCo is forecasted to grow its earnings per share from $6.24 in 2021 to $8.06 in 2025 - which pencils out to a four-year increase of around 30% for both companies.\nIf both companies manage to hit current analyst predictions, they would both grow meaningfully faster than they did over the last decade, as annual growth in the high-single-digits has not been achieved by either company.\nEspecially in Coca-Cola's case, it seems somewhat questionable to assume that the company will grow its earnings per share this reliably when the company has not delivered any growth over the last decade. It can, however, be argued that Coca-Cola, due to its more drinks-focused product lineup, might benefit more from global reopening in 2022 and beyond.\nThe growth outlook for the global carbonated soft drinks market and the growth outlook for the global snacks market are relatively similar, at 3%-4% a year through the next couple of years. Translating this market growth into a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate is possible, but far from certain. It would require constant market share, which is not guaranteed, and additional tailwinds from either margin expansion or share buybacks.\nPepsiCo has somewhat lower gross margins today, at around 55%, whereas Coca-Cola's gross margins are in the low 60s. One could argue that PepsiCo might have more success in expanding its gross margins over the coming years, as Coca-Cola's margins already seem pretty maxed out. Even in PEP's case, further margin expansion is far from certain, however. Overall, I do believe that current growth estimates by the analyst community might be a little aggressive for both companies, and would not be surprised if both do actually grow their profits a little less than expected -- if history is a guide, that seems quite likely.\nShareholder Returns: PEP Versus KO\nBoth companies are owned by many retail investors, for their above-average dividend yields and decades-long dividend growth track records. At current prices, PEP offers a dividend yield of 2.8%, whereas KO offers a dividend yield of 3.1%. At first sight, Coca-Cola is thus the better income investment, but additional factors should be considered.\nBased on current earnings per share estimates for 2021, PepsiCo will pay out 69% of its profits this year, whereas the payout ratio for Coca-Cola is 75%. This means that PepsiCo's dividend looks a little more secure, and on top of that, PepsiCo has more potential to raise its dividend through increases in its payout ratio. PepsiCo's better crisis performance thanks to a more diversified and resilient product portfolio further underlines the fact that its dividend seems to be even more secure than that of Coca-Cola -- although KO's shareholders don't really have to worry about a dividend cut, either.\nPepsiCo also has delivered better dividend growth than Coca-Cola over the last couple of years:\nData by YCharts\nPEP's 5-year dividend growth rate is a little over 7%, whereas KO only hiked its dividend by 3.7% a year, on average. This is, at least partially, the result of KO's weaker earnings growth and its higher payout ratio - PepsiCo, thanks to better growth and a lower payout ratio, had more potential to reward its owners through generous dividend increases. If analysts are correct and earnings growth will be relatively similar between these two, one could imagine that dividend growth will be relatively close over the coming years as well. PepsiCo, due to its lower payout ratio, still should be able to serve up somewhat higher dividend increases, although the gap versus KO's dividend growth rate should narrow.\nExecutives can also return cash to the company's owners through stock buybacks. Looking at the share count of the two companies over the last three years, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nPepsiCo has reduced its share count by a couple of percentage points, which does translate into a small earnings per share tailwind, all else equal. Coca-Cola, meanwhile, has seen its share count rise over the years, which is what we would expect from a high-growth tech company, but not from a mature consumer staples company. KO has actually spent money repurchasing shares ($100 million in H1 2021, and a similar amount during H1 2020, according to its 10-Q), but the company has issued so many shares that its share count has still been growing.\nThis seems relatively shareholder-unfriendly, and the ongoing dilution - despite cash being diverted to buybacks - plays a role in KO's weak earnings per share growth rate, relative to its peer. If this trend doesn't change, I personally do believe that this could result in further underperformance of KO on a per-share basis - as mentioned above, current analyst estimates might be too bullish.\nWhen we look at insider trades, we see that PEP seems to be a better buy in the eyes of its executives relative to KO:\nSource: nasdaq.com\nPepsiCo's insiders have bought more shares than they sold over the last 3 months and the last twelve months. On a net basis, buying activity has not been overly high, but it still is a positive sign that insiders seem to see value in PEP stock.\nCoca-Cola's insiders, meanwhile, have been on a selling spree:\nSource: nasdaq.com\nBoth over the last three months, as well as over the last year, insiders sold way more shares than they bought. This suggests that insiders do not see too much value in KO's stock. At the same time, this could be the result of massive share issuance to management that is rapidly turned into cash, which would also explain why KO's share count has been climbing while PEP's share count declined.\nOverall, PEP seems like the more shareholder-friendly company where insiders are better aligned with owners. At the same time, in the eyes of those that own the company very well, PEP seems to be more attractively priced -- otherwise execs wouldn't be buying more than they are selling. Coca-Cola does, however, offer a slightly higher dividend yield, which might be the deciding factor for some investors.\nWhich Is The Better Stock To Buy?\nBoth KO and PEP offer a sizeable dividend yield, both companies are active in a relatively resilient industry, and both companies are forecasted to grow at a relatively similar rate over the coming years. Due to its lower dividend payout ratio, higher dividend growth, better track record, declining share count, and due to recent insider buying, I still believe that PEP is the slightly stronger pick right here. PEP's better diversification and its stronger crisis performance are also attractive qualities.\nKO, meanwhile, has underperformed for many years, and due to ongoing shareholder dilution, it seems far from guaranteed that it will be able to close the gap versus PEP when it comes to earnings per share growth. Insiders also do not seem to have a lot of trust in the company's future performance, as they have been selling way more shares than they bought in the recent past.\nThat being said, at a mid-20s earnings multiple, neither of the two companies look especially inexpensive. Investors may want to wait for a better buying opportunity to emerge instead of paying a quite high price for a slow-moving mature company. I am thus slightly more bullish on PEP, but do not consider it a great buy at current prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KO":0.9,"PEP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826059714"}
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