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2021-10-12
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Nvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":826707962,"tweetId":"826707962","gmtCreate":1634051001065,"gmtModify":1634051001244,"author":{"id":3581908140966834,"idStr":"3581908140966834","authorId":3581908140966834,"authorIdStr":"3581908140966834","name":"ssky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c557c3de7ee44da7b994d97552ac2735","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Buy!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Buy!</p></body></html>","text":"Buy!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826707962","repostId":1174197178,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174197178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634049962,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174197178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 22:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174197178","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia’s main businesses experience massive momentum as graphics cards sales surge and dema","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Nvidia’s main businesses experience massive momentum as graphics cards sales surge and demand for data centers strengthens.</li> <li>Strong GPU pricing served to improve Nvidia’s margins in the first six months of the year.</li> <li>There is significant upside in Nvidia's free cash flow.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a40bc61cdb4aabe35ac1e3ed9ae5ac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着显卡销量激增和数据中心需求增强，英伟达的主要业务发展势头强劲。</li><li>强劲的GPU定价提高了英伟达今年前六个月的利润率。</li><li>英伟达的自由现金流有显着的上升空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)is one of the world’s best growth stocks to own as gaming and data center revenues continue to soar. I believe Nvidia will grow into a massive cash machine over the next five years with an estimated annual free cash flow of $14.0B or more!</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏和数据中心收入持续飙升，英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）是全球最值得持有的成长型股票之一。我相信Nvidia将在未来五年内成长为一台巨大的提款机，预计每年自由现金流为$140亿或更多！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Nvidia is a long term buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么英伟达值得长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia just produces incredible growth. The firm generated 68% top line growth in the second-quarter, with revenues touching $6.51B due to soaring demand in the gaming and the data center segments. Gaming revenues surged to a record of $3.06B in the second-quarter, showing a year over year increase of 85%, chiefly because of strengthening sales in a severely undersupplied graphics cards market. Data center revenues also surged to a record, $2.37B in Q2’22, showing a year over year growth rate of 35%. With total revenues up by 68% and higher gross margins (66.7% in Q2’22), Nvidia’s commercial performance is getting better and better...</p><p><blockquote>英伟达带来了令人难以置信的增长。由于游戏和数据中心领域的需求飙升，该公司第二季度营收增长了68%，收入达到$6.51 B。第二季度游戏收入飙升至创纪录的$3.06 B，同比增长85%，主要是由于严重供应不足的显卡市场的销售增强。22年第二季度，数据中心收入也飙升至创纪录的$2.37 B，同比增长率为35%。随着总收入增长68%和毛利率更高（22年第二季度为66.7%），英伟达的商业业绩越来越好……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1af1b5d7b0be554a0ef5ed7d3b79435\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Nvidia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I don’t believe Nvidia’s business has peaked yet. I believe Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly because of increasing demand for high performance data centers that can handle incredible amounts of workloads and because Nvidia’s largest business by revenues, gaming, is seeing pricing support from end markets. Graphics cards have been flying off the shelf in 2020 and 2021, in part because cryptocurrency miners compete with gamers for GPUs. The result has been that graphics cards are in a shortage, leading to a significant increase in GPU pricing. AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)and Nvidia, the two largest suppliers of high performance graphics processing units, benefit from this trend the most.</p><p><blockquote>但我不认为英伟达的业务已经见顶。我相信Nvidia将继续快速增长，因为对能够处理大量工作负载的高性能数据中心的需求不断增长，而且Nvidia按收入计算最大的业务游戏正在获得终端市场的定价支持。显卡在2020年和2021年大量下架，部分原因是加密货币矿工与游戏玩家争夺GPU。结果是显卡供不应求，导致GPU价格大幅上涨。AMD（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英伟达这两家最大的高性能图形处理单元供应商从这一趋势中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> Top-tier graphics cards like AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 30 series have seen strong demand/pricing in 2021, and the steep decline in cryptocurrency prices in the second-quarter did not significantly lower demand. GPU prices peaked in May - at the top of the crypto boom - and have fallen since. However, pricing is still strong with the AMD Radeon RX series selling for 1.64x suggested retail price at the end of August. Nvidia’s GeForce 30 series sold for 1.59x MSRP in August, indicating consistently high demand for GPUs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的Radeon RX 6000和Nvidia的GeForce RTX 30系列等顶级显卡在2021年的需求/定价都很强劲，第二季度加密货币价格的急剧下跌并没有显著降低需求。GPU价格在5月份达到顶峰（加密货币繁荣的顶峰），此后一直在下降。然而，定价仍然强劲，AMD镭龙RX系列在8月底的售价为建议零售价的1.64倍。Nvidia的GeForce 30系列8月份的售价为建议零售价的1.59倍，表明对GPU的需求一直很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e234f2daf83e24fdb585fce43d5b3236\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FPS Reviews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FPS评论</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because of excellent commercial performance in its main businesses,accelerating momentum in niche businesses and strength in GPU pricing, Nvidia is looking at a dramatic improvement in free cash flow over the next five years... supplying yet another reason to buy the shares!</p><p><blockquote>由于其主要业务的出色商业表现、利基业务的加速势头以及GPU定价的优势，英伟达预计未来五年自由现金流将大幅改善……提供了另一个购买股票的理由！</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia is projecting revenues of $6.8B +/- 2 percent for the third-quarter. Including Q3’22 revenue projections, Nvidia should post revenues of around $19.0B for the first nine months of FY 2022. Adding $7.0B in revenues on top of that for the fourth-quarter, and Nvidia is looking at revenues of around $26.0B for FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达预计第三季度收入为68亿美元+/-2%。包括22年第3季度的收入预测在内，Nvidia 2022财年前9个月的收入应约为$19.0 B。在第四季度的基础上增加了$7.0 B的收入，Nvidia预计2022财年的收入约为$26.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> The market projects revenues of $25.8B this year and $29.0B revenues next year (the assumption is for just 13% year over year growth in FY 2023). I believe revenues will be above $30.0B in FY 2023 due to strong business momentum and favorable GPU pricing. Nvidia’s revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 23% until FY 2026 (base year: FY 2021).</p><p><blockquote>市场预计今年收入为$25.8 B，明年收入为$29.0 B（假设2023财年同比仅增长13%）。我相信，由于强劲的业务势头和有利的GPU定价，2023财年的收入将超过$30.0 B。到2026财年（基准年：2021财年），Nvidia的收入预计将以每年23%的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c03f31d7f5924796294fe4ef344ff8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at Nvidia’s revenue to cash conversion, consistently high free cash flow margins can be found. The semiconductor firm generated annual free cash flow margins ranging between 28% and 39% from FY 2018 to FY 2021 with an average annual margin of 31%. I believe a free cash flow margin around 30% can be sustained going forward, especially if pricing in the graphics cards market stays strong. Because cryptocurrency prices started to recover in the third-quarter, GPUs could even see accelerating demand in the future. Rising digital currency prices benefit Nvidia in two ways: They boost the cryptocurrency mining business/CMP which sells dedicated processors, and higher demand for GPUs improves end market pricing, meaning Nvidia can sell the same graphics card for a higher price. Nvidia’s free cash flow margin in the first six months of FY 2022 was above 33%, due chiefly to strength in GPU demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>看看英伟达的收入现金转换，可以发现自由现金流利润率一直很高。从2018财年到2021财年，这家半导体公司的年自由现金流利润率在28%至39%之间，平均年利润率为31%。我相信未来可以维持30%左右的自由现金流利润率，特别是如果显卡市场的定价保持强劲的话。由于加密货币价格在第三季度开始复苏，GPU甚至可能在未来看到需求加速。数字货币价格上涨在两个方面使英伟达受益：它们提振了销售专用处理器的加密货币挖矿业务/CMP，对GPU的更高需求提高了终端市场定价，这意味着英伟达可以以更高的价格出售相同的显卡。英伟达2022财年前六个月的自由现金流利润率超过33%，这主要是由于GPU需求和定价的强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e05cd7aa4844f19e4ba0899754633f\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning back to revenue projections.</p><p><blockquote>回到收入预测。</blockquote></p><p> The FY 2023 market expectation is for Nvidia to have revenues of $29.0B. Assuming a 30% free cash flow margin, Nvidia is looking at $8.7B in free cash flow next year... which is a 100% improvement over the firm's FY 2020 level of free cash flow. I believe the FY 2023 revenue estimate underestimates Nvidia’s growth potential next year as I see persistent strength in gaming and data centers, and a higher than 13% annual revenue growth rate. However, revenue estimates for Nvidia, for this year and next year, are rising...</p><p><blockquote>市场预期NVIDIA 2023财年的收入为$29.0 B。假设自由现金流利润率为30%，Nvidia预计明年的自由现金流为$8.7 B……这比公司2020财年的自由现金流水平提高了100%。我认为2023财年的收入预测低估了英伟达明年的增长潜力，因为我看到游戏和数据中心的持续实力，以及高于13%的年收入增长率。然而，英伟达今年和明年的收入预期正在上升...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d979b6088a67cf25c6993d40c574bb7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we were also to assume that Nvidia can generate 30% free cash flow margins in the future, Nvidia’s annual free cash flow is set to surpass $14B by FY 2026. In CAGR terms, this means that Nvidia will grow free cash flow at a 25% annual rate over the next five years. Nvidia may grow free cash flow at a faster rate if revenues also grow faster. I believe this will happen because the RTX upgrade cycle will lead to a higher volume of higher-priced GPUs being sold in the future, which is set to boost FCF margins.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们还假设Nvidia未来能够产生30%的自由现金流利润率，那么到2026财年，Nvidia的年度自由现金流将超过14B美元。以复合年增长率计算，这意味着英伟达的自由现金流将在未来五年内以每年25%的速度增长。如果收入增长更快，英伟达的自由现金流可能会以更快的速度增长。我相信这将会发生，因为RTX升级周期将导致未来销售更多价格更高的GPU，这将提高FCF利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As Nvidia releases more top-tier, higher margin graphics cards and gamers upgrade their equipment, Nvidia's free cash flow margins could even expand beyond 30%. Assuming a, say, 35% revenue to free cash flow conversion, Nvidia could generate up to $16.4B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026… which would imply a FCF CAGR of not 25%, but 29%.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达发布更多顶级、利润率更高的显卡以及游戏玩家升级设备，英伟达的自由现金流利润率甚至可能扩大到30%以上。假设35%的收入转换为自由现金流，到2026财年，Nvidia每年可产生高达$16.4 B的自由现金流……这意味着FCF复合年增长率不是25%，而是29%。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, I believe Nvidia’s free cash flow potential is materially undervalued. Nvidia is set to generate a massive amount of cash flow in the next five years. Based off of FY 2023 revenue estimates, Nvidia is not cheap (P-S ratio: 17.9), but the potential for sales and free cash flow growth justifies the price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为英伟达的自由现金流潜力被严重低估。英伟达将在未来五年内产生大量现金流。根据2023财年的收入预测，Nvidia的价格并不便宜（市盈率：17.9），但销售和自由现金流增长的潜力证明了价格的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfca86b9c32ab42da6edcea7b9046b0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Nvidia的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia has a couple of commercial risks that need to be considered. The industry environment is favorable for Nvidia at the moment which explains strong revenue growth projections, but weaker pricing in graphics cards potentially indicates growing risks to Nvidia’s top line. Lower gross margins will also likely be seen as the canary in the coal mine, indicating that slowing revenue growth is on the horizon. Longer term, Nvidia has to keep its technological edge to defend its tech leadership in GPUs, data centers and AI. Failing to do so would give its rivals, AMD and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC), an opportunity to grow their market share at the expense of Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达有几个需要考虑的商业风险。目前行业环境对英伟达有利，这解释了强劲的收入增长预测，但显卡定价疲软可能表明英伟达营收面临的风险越来越大。较低的毛利率也可能被视为煤矿中的金丝雀，表明收入增长即将放缓。从长远来看，英伟达必须保持其技术优势，以捍卫其在GPU、数据中心和人工智能领域的技术领先地位。如果做不到这一点，其竞争对手AMD和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）将有机会以牺牲英伟达为代价扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia, despite a high P-S ratio, may still be undervalued considering the massive ramp in free cash flow that can be expected in the next five years. Sales projections for FY 2023 imply a drop off in growth rates, which I just don’t see given the accelerating strength in Nvidia’s main and niche businesses. Nvidia is in a buy-the-dip situation and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p><blockquote>尽管市盈率很高，但考虑到未来五年自由现金流的大幅增长，英伟达的估值可能仍然被低估。2023财年的销售预测意味着增长率会下降，但考虑到Nvidia主要业务和利基业务的实力不断增强，我并没有看到这一点。英伟达处于逢低买入的境地，风险状况仍然严重偏向上行！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Nvidia’s main businesses experience massive momentum as graphics cards sales surge and demand for data centers strengthens.</li> <li>Strong GPU pricing served to improve Nvidia’s margins in the first six months of the year.</li> <li>There is significant upside in Nvidia's free cash flow.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a40bc61cdb4aabe35ac1e3ed9ae5ac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着显卡销量激增和数据中心需求增强，英伟达的主要业务发展势头强劲。</li><li>强劲的GPU定价提高了英伟达今年前六个月的利润率。</li><li>英伟达的自由现金流有显着的上升空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)is one of the world’s best growth stocks to own as gaming and data center revenues continue to soar. I believe Nvidia will grow into a massive cash machine over the next five years with an estimated annual free cash flow of $14.0B or more!</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏和数据中心收入持续飙升，英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）是全球最值得持有的成长型股票之一。我相信Nvidia将在未来五年内成长为一台巨大的提款机，预计每年自由现金流为$140亿或更多！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Nvidia is a long term buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么英伟达值得长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia just produces incredible growth. The firm generated 68% top line growth in the second-quarter, with revenues touching $6.51B due to soaring demand in the gaming and the data center segments. Gaming revenues surged to a record of $3.06B in the second-quarter, showing a year over year increase of 85%, chiefly because of strengthening sales in a severely undersupplied graphics cards market. Data center revenues also surged to a record, $2.37B in Q2’22, showing a year over year growth rate of 35%. With total revenues up by 68% and higher gross margins (66.7% in Q2’22), Nvidia’s commercial performance is getting better and better...</p><p><blockquote>英伟达带来了令人难以置信的增长。由于游戏和数据中心领域的需求飙升，该公司第二季度营收增长了68%，收入达到$6.51 B。第二季度游戏收入飙升至创纪录的$3.06 B，同比增长85%，主要是由于严重供应不足的显卡市场的销售增强。22年第二季度，数据中心收入也飙升至创纪录的$2.37 B，同比增长率为35%。随着总收入增长68%和毛利率更高（22年第二季度为66.7%），英伟达的商业业绩越来越好……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1af1b5d7b0be554a0ef5ed7d3b79435\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Nvidia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I don’t believe Nvidia’s business has peaked yet. I believe Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly because of increasing demand for high performance data centers that can handle incredible amounts of workloads and because Nvidia’s largest business by revenues, gaming, is seeing pricing support from end markets. Graphics cards have been flying off the shelf in 2020 and 2021, in part because cryptocurrency miners compete with gamers for GPUs. The result has been that graphics cards are in a shortage, leading to a significant increase in GPU pricing. AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)and Nvidia, the two largest suppliers of high performance graphics processing units, benefit from this trend the most.</p><p><blockquote>但我不认为英伟达的业务已经见顶。我相信Nvidia将继续快速增长，因为对能够处理大量工作负载的高性能数据中心的需求不断增长，而且Nvidia按收入计算最大的业务游戏正在获得终端市场的定价支持。显卡在2020年和2021年大量下架，部分原因是加密货币矿工与游戏玩家争夺GPU。结果是显卡供不应求，导致GPU价格大幅上涨。AMD（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英伟达这两家最大的高性能图形处理单元供应商从这一趋势中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> Top-tier graphics cards like AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 30 series have seen strong demand/pricing in 2021, and the steep decline in cryptocurrency prices in the second-quarter did not significantly lower demand. GPU prices peaked in May - at the top of the crypto boom - and have fallen since. However, pricing is still strong with the AMD Radeon RX series selling for 1.64x suggested retail price at the end of August. Nvidia’s GeForce 30 series sold for 1.59x MSRP in August, indicating consistently high demand for GPUs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的Radeon RX 6000和Nvidia的GeForce RTX 30系列等顶级显卡在2021年的需求/定价都很强劲，第二季度加密货币价格的急剧下跌并没有显著降低需求。GPU价格在5月份达到顶峰（加密货币繁荣的顶峰），此后一直在下降。然而，定价仍然强劲，AMD镭龙RX系列在8月底的售价为建议零售价的1.64倍。Nvidia的GeForce 30系列8月份的售价为建议零售价的1.59倍，表明对GPU的需求一直很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e234f2daf83e24fdb585fce43d5b3236\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FPS Reviews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FPS评论</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because of excellent commercial performance in its main businesses,accelerating momentum in niche businesses and strength in GPU pricing, Nvidia is looking at a dramatic improvement in free cash flow over the next five years... supplying yet another reason to buy the shares!</p><p><blockquote>由于其主要业务的出色商业表现、利基业务的加速势头以及GPU定价的优势，英伟达预计未来五年自由现金流将大幅改善……提供了另一个购买股票的理由！</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia is projecting revenues of $6.8B +/- 2 percent for the third-quarter. Including Q3’22 revenue projections, Nvidia should post revenues of around $19.0B for the first nine months of FY 2022. Adding $7.0B in revenues on top of that for the fourth-quarter, and Nvidia is looking at revenues of around $26.0B for FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达预计第三季度收入为68亿美元+/-2%。包括22年第3季度的收入预测在内，Nvidia 2022财年前9个月的收入应约为$19.0 B。在第四季度的基础上增加了$7.0 B的收入，Nvidia预计2022财年的收入约为$26.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> The market projects revenues of $25.8B this year and $29.0B revenues next year (the assumption is for just 13% year over year growth in FY 2023). I believe revenues will be above $30.0B in FY 2023 due to strong business momentum and favorable GPU pricing. Nvidia’s revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 23% until FY 2026 (base year: FY 2021).</p><p><blockquote>市场预计今年收入为$25.8 B，明年收入为$29.0 B（假设2023财年同比仅增长13%）。我相信，由于强劲的业务势头和有利的GPU定价，2023财年的收入将超过$30.0 B。到2026财年（基准年：2021财年），Nvidia的收入预计将以每年23%的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c03f31d7f5924796294fe4ef344ff8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at Nvidia’s revenue to cash conversion, consistently high free cash flow margins can be found. The semiconductor firm generated annual free cash flow margins ranging between 28% and 39% from FY 2018 to FY 2021 with an average annual margin of 31%. I believe a free cash flow margin around 30% can be sustained going forward, especially if pricing in the graphics cards market stays strong. Because cryptocurrency prices started to recover in the third-quarter, GPUs could even see accelerating demand in the future. Rising digital currency prices benefit Nvidia in two ways: They boost the cryptocurrency mining business/CMP which sells dedicated processors, and higher demand for GPUs improves end market pricing, meaning Nvidia can sell the same graphics card for a higher price. Nvidia’s free cash flow margin in the first six months of FY 2022 was above 33%, due chiefly to strength in GPU demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>看看英伟达的收入现金转换，可以发现自由现金流利润率一直很高。从2018财年到2021财年，这家半导体公司的年自由现金流利润率在28%至39%之间，平均年利润率为31%。我相信未来可以维持30%左右的自由现金流利润率，特别是如果显卡市场的定价保持强劲的话。由于加密货币价格在第三季度开始复苏，GPU甚至可能在未来看到需求加速。数字货币价格上涨在两个方面使英伟达受益：它们提振了销售专用处理器的加密货币挖矿业务/CMP，对GPU的更高需求提高了终端市场定价，这意味着英伟达可以以更高的价格出售相同的显卡。英伟达2022财年前六个月的自由现金流利润率超过33%，这主要是由于GPU需求和定价的强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e05cd7aa4844f19e4ba0899754633f\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning back to revenue projections.</p><p><blockquote>回到收入预测。</blockquote></p><p> The FY 2023 market expectation is for Nvidia to have revenues of $29.0B. Assuming a 30% free cash flow margin, Nvidia is looking at $8.7B in free cash flow next year... which is a 100% improvement over the firm's FY 2020 level of free cash flow. I believe the FY 2023 revenue estimate underestimates Nvidia’s growth potential next year as I see persistent strength in gaming and data centers, and a higher than 13% annual revenue growth rate. However, revenue estimates for Nvidia, for this year and next year, are rising...</p><p><blockquote>市场预期NVIDIA 2023财年的收入为$29.0 B。假设自由现金流利润率为30%，Nvidia预计明年的自由现金流为$8.7 B……这比公司2020财年的自由现金流水平提高了100%。我认为2023财年的收入预测低估了英伟达明年的增长潜力，因为我看到游戏和数据中心的持续实力，以及高于13%的年收入增长率。然而，英伟达今年和明年的收入预期正在上升...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d979b6088a67cf25c6993d40c574bb7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we were also to assume that Nvidia can generate 30% free cash flow margins in the future, Nvidia’s annual free cash flow is set to surpass $14B by FY 2026. In CAGR terms, this means that Nvidia will grow free cash flow at a 25% annual rate over the next five years. Nvidia may grow free cash flow at a faster rate if revenues also grow faster. I believe this will happen because the RTX upgrade cycle will lead to a higher volume of higher-priced GPUs being sold in the future, which is set to boost FCF margins.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们还假设Nvidia未来能够产生30%的自由现金流利润率，那么到2026财年，Nvidia的年度自由现金流将超过14B美元。以复合年增长率计算，这意味着英伟达的自由现金流将在未来五年内以每年25%的速度增长。如果收入增长更快，英伟达的自由现金流可能会以更快的速度增长。我相信这将会发生，因为RTX升级周期将导致未来销售更多价格更高的GPU，这将提高FCF利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As Nvidia releases more top-tier, higher margin graphics cards and gamers upgrade their equipment, Nvidia's free cash flow margins could even expand beyond 30%. Assuming a, say, 35% revenue to free cash flow conversion, Nvidia could generate up to $16.4B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026… which would imply a FCF CAGR of not 25%, but 29%.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达发布更多顶级、利润率更高的显卡以及游戏玩家升级设备，英伟达的自由现金流利润率甚至可能扩大到30%以上。假设35%的收入转换为自由现金流，到2026财年，Nvidia每年可产生高达$16.4 B的自由现金流……这意味着FCF复合年增长率不是25%，而是29%。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, I believe Nvidia’s free cash flow potential is materially undervalued. Nvidia is set to generate a massive amount of cash flow in the next five years. Based off of FY 2023 revenue estimates, Nvidia is not cheap (P-S ratio: 17.9), but the potential for sales and free cash flow growth justifies the price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为英伟达的自由现金流潜力被严重低估。英伟达将在未来五年内产生大量现金流。根据2023财年的收入预测，Nvidia的价格并不便宜（市盈率：17.9），但销售和自由现金流增长的潜力证明了价格的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfca86b9c32ab42da6edcea7b9046b0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Nvidia的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia has a couple of commercial risks that need to be considered. The industry environment is favorable for Nvidia at the moment which explains strong revenue growth projections, but weaker pricing in graphics cards potentially indicates growing risks to Nvidia’s top line. Lower gross margins will also likely be seen as the canary in the coal mine, indicating that slowing revenue growth is on the horizon. Longer term, Nvidia has to keep its technological edge to defend its tech leadership in GPUs, data centers and AI. Failing to do so would give its rivals, AMD and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC), an opportunity to grow their market share at the expense of Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达有几个需要考虑的商业风险。目前行业环境对英伟达有利，这解释了强劲的收入增长预测，但显卡定价疲软可能表明英伟达营收面临的风险越来越大。较低的毛利率也可能被视为煤矿中的金丝雀，表明收入增长即将放缓。从长远来看，英伟达必须保持其技术优势，以捍卫其在GPU、数据中心和人工智能领域的技术领先地位。如果做不到这一点，其竞争对手AMD和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）将有机会以牺牲英伟达为代价扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia, despite a high P-S ratio, may still be undervalued considering the massive ramp in free cash flow that can be expected in the next five years. Sales projections for FY 2023 imply a drop off in growth rates, which I just don’t see given the accelerating strength in Nvidia’s main and niche businesses. Nvidia is in a buy-the-dip situation and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p><blockquote>尽管市盈率很高，但考虑到未来五年自由现金流的大幅增长，英伟达的估值可能仍然被低估。2023财年的销售预测意味着增长率会下降，但考虑到Nvidia主要业务和利基业务的实力不断增强，我并没有看到这一点。英伟达处于逢低买入的境地，风险状况仍然严重偏向上行！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459353-nvidia-set-to-turn-into-cash-machine\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459353-nvidia-set-to-turn-into-cash-machine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174197178","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia’s main businesses experience massive momentum as graphics cards sales surge and demand for data centers strengthens.\nStrong GPU pricing served to improve Nvidia’s margins in the first six months of the year.\nThere is significant upside in Nvidia's free cash flow.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)is one of the world’s best growth stocks to own as gaming and data center revenues continue to soar. I believe Nvidia will grow into a massive cash machine over the next five years with an estimated annual free cash flow of $14.0B or more!\nWhy Nvidia is a long term buy\nNvidia just produces incredible growth. The firm generated 68% top line growth in the second-quarter, with revenues touching $6.51B due to soaring demand in the gaming and the data center segments. Gaming revenues surged to a record of $3.06B in the second-quarter, showing a year over year increase of 85%, chiefly because of strengthening sales in a severely undersupplied graphics cards market. Data center revenues also surged to a record, $2.37B in Q2’22, showing a year over year growth rate of 35%. With total revenues up by 68% and higher gross margins (66.7% in Q2’22), Nvidia’s commercial performance is getting better and better...\nSource: Nvidia\nBut I don’t believe Nvidia’s business has peaked yet. I believe Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly because of increasing demand for high performance data centers that can handle incredible amounts of workloads and because Nvidia’s largest business by revenues, gaming, is seeing pricing support from end markets. Graphics cards have been flying off the shelf in 2020 and 2021, in part because cryptocurrency miners compete with gamers for GPUs. The result has been that graphics cards are in a shortage, leading to a significant increase in GPU pricing. AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)and Nvidia, the two largest suppliers of high performance graphics processing units, benefit from this trend the most.\nTop-tier graphics cards like AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 30 series have seen strong demand/pricing in 2021, and the steep decline in cryptocurrency prices in the second-quarter did not significantly lower demand. GPU prices peaked in May - at the top of the crypto boom - and have fallen since. However, pricing is still strong with the AMD Radeon RX series selling for 1.64x suggested retail price at the end of August. Nvidia’s GeForce 30 series sold for 1.59x MSRP in August, indicating consistently high demand for GPUs.\nSource: FPS Reviews\nBecause of excellent commercial performance in its main businesses,accelerating momentum in niche businesses and strength in GPU pricing, Nvidia is looking at a dramatic improvement in free cash flow over the next five years... supplying yet another reason to buy the shares!\nNvidia is projecting revenues of $6.8B +/- 2 percent for the third-quarter. Including Q3’22 revenue projections, Nvidia should post revenues of around $19.0B for the first nine months of FY 2022. Adding $7.0B in revenues on top of that for the fourth-quarter, and Nvidia is looking at revenues of around $26.0B for FY 2022.\nThe market projects revenues of $25.8B this year and $29.0B revenues next year (the assumption is for just 13% year over year growth in FY 2023). I believe revenues will be above $30.0B in FY 2023 due to strong business momentum and favorable GPU pricing. Nvidia’s revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 23% until FY 2026 (base year: FY 2021).\nSource: Seeking Alpha Estimates\nLooking at Nvidia’s revenue to cash conversion, consistently high free cash flow margins can be found. The semiconductor firm generated annual free cash flow margins ranging between 28% and 39% from FY 2018 to FY 2021 with an average annual margin of 31%. I believe a free cash flow margin around 30% can be sustained going forward, especially if pricing in the graphics cards market stays strong. Because cryptocurrency prices started to recover in the third-quarter, GPUs could even see accelerating demand in the future. Rising digital currency prices benefit Nvidia in two ways: They boost the cryptocurrency mining business/CMP which sells dedicated processors, and higher demand for GPUs improves end market pricing, meaning Nvidia can sell the same graphics card for a higher price. Nvidia’s free cash flow margin in the first six months of FY 2022 was above 33%, due chiefly to strength in GPU demand and pricing.\nSource: Author\nTurning back to revenue projections.\nThe FY 2023 market expectation is for Nvidia to have revenues of $29.0B. Assuming a 30% free cash flow margin, Nvidia is looking at $8.7B in free cash flow next year... which is a 100% improvement over the firm's FY 2020 level of free cash flow. I believe the FY 2023 revenue estimate underestimates Nvidia’s growth potential next year as I see persistent strength in gaming and data centers, and a higher than 13% annual revenue growth rate. However, revenue estimates for Nvidia, for this year and next year, are rising...\nData by YCharts\nIf we were also to assume that Nvidia can generate 30% free cash flow margins in the future, Nvidia’s annual free cash flow is set to surpass $14B by FY 2026. In CAGR terms, this means that Nvidia will grow free cash flow at a 25% annual rate over the next five years. Nvidia may grow free cash flow at a faster rate if revenues also grow faster. I believe this will happen because the RTX upgrade cycle will lead to a higher volume of higher-priced GPUs being sold in the future, which is set to boost FCF margins.\nAs Nvidia releases more top-tier, higher margin graphics cards and gamers upgrade their equipment, Nvidia's free cash flow margins could even expand beyond 30%. Assuming a, say, 35% revenue to free cash flow conversion, Nvidia could generate up to $16.4B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026… which would imply a FCF CAGR of not 25%, but 29%.\nFor that reason, I believe Nvidia’s free cash flow potential is materially undervalued. Nvidia is set to generate a massive amount of cash flow in the next five years. Based off of FY 2023 revenue estimates, Nvidia is not cheap (P-S ratio: 17.9), but the potential for sales and free cash flow growth justifies the price.\nData by YCharts\nRisks with Nvidia\nNvidia has a couple of commercial risks that need to be considered. The industry environment is favorable for Nvidia at the moment which explains strong revenue growth projections, but weaker pricing in graphics cards potentially indicates growing risks to Nvidia’s top line. Lower gross margins will also likely be seen as the canary in the coal mine, indicating that slowing revenue growth is on the horizon. Longer term, Nvidia has to keep its technological edge to defend its tech leadership in GPUs, data centers and AI. Failing to do so would give its rivals, AMD and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC), an opportunity to grow their market share at the expense of Nvidia.\nFinal thoughts\nNvidia, despite a high P-S ratio, may still be undervalued considering the massive ramp in free cash flow that can be expected in the next five years. Sales projections for FY 2023 imply a drop off in growth rates, which I just don’t see given the accelerating strength in Nvidia’s main and niche businesses. Nvidia is in a buy-the-dip situation and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826707962"}
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