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2021-10-11

Still look bearish to me. Moreover it's fool, I'm gonna buy put option for weekly

Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings<blockquote>股票投资者担心供应链困境可能会影响盈利</blockquote>

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Moreover it's fool, I'm gonna buy put option for weekly","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828737874","repostId":1138135043,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138135043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633909454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138135043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 07:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings<blockquote>股票投资者担心供应链困境可能会影响盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138135043","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America. It’s also prompting downgrades across analysts estimates for the upcoming earnings season.<blockquote>（彭博社）——就在北美假日购物季开始之际，重新开放的需求和滞留的集装箱导致了整个供应链的瓶颈。这也促使分析师下调了对即将到来的财报季的预期。</blockquote> Few expect the supply snarls to end this year as an energy crisis stokes inflation fears. Caution abounds in the semiconductor, retail and raw material space.<blockquote>由于能源危机引发通胀担忧，很少有人预计供应混乱会在今年结束。半导体、零售和原材料领域充满了谨慎。</blockquote> “The supply-chain problems are going to stay, leading to substantially higher prices, and major dislocations in parts of markets no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is expecting,” said George <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLL\">Ball</a>, chairman of Houston-based investment firm Sanders Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRS\">Harris</a>. “Almost all segments of the economy that are not pure service or pure technology driven will be struggling with supply-chain issues for a long time.”<blockquote>“供应链问题将持续存在，导致价格大幅上涨，部分市场出现重大混乱。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>我在等着呢，”乔治说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLL\">球</a>休斯敦投资公司桑德斯·莫里斯董事长<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRS\">哈里斯</a>“几乎所有不是纯服务或纯技术驱动的经济领域都将在很长一段时间内与供应链问题作斗争。”</blockquote> The Many Reasons Why Global Supply Chains Have Become So Snarled<blockquote>全球供应链变得如此混乱的诸多原因</blockquote> Here are some challenges and opportunities identified by investors for key sectors ahead of the earnings season:<blockquote>以下是投资者在财报季之前为关键行业确定的一些挑战和机遇：</blockquote> Semi Snags<blockquote>半障碍</blockquote> For the semiconductor industry, expectations are for more capacity to only trickle in by the latter part of 2022 due to factory closures and longer delivery times. A power crunch in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> could also worsen the situation as it shuts down factories.<blockquote>对于半导体行业来说，由于工厂关闭和交货时间延长，预计到2022年下半年才会有更多产能流入。电力紧缩<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>随着工厂的关闭，情况也可能恶化。</blockquote> However, with hubs such as Malaysia reopening, the pricing power of some companies could weaken particularly at a time material costs such as silicon are soaring.<blockquote>然而，随着马来西亚等中心的重新开放，一些公司的定价权可能会减弱，尤其是在硅等材料成本飙升的情况下。</blockquote> Prices for DRAM and NAND chips already appear to be peaking, and 12-month forward earnings estimates for chipmaking giants Samsung Electronics Ltd., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a> Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Corp. have fluctuated or fallen in the past two months. Shares are down around 20% or more from recent peaks.<blockquote>DRAM和NAND芯片的价格似乎已经见顶，芯片制造巨头三星电子有限公司(Samsung Electronics Ltd.)的12个月盈利预期，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>公司和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>公司在过去两个月中波动或下跌。股价较近期峰值下跌约20%或更多。</blockquote> “Even though many of them have had revenues surge to all-time records, the stocks have not followed suit,” said Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland. “That tells me that at this point some of this consternation is baked into shares more broadly.”<blockquote>萨斯奎哈纳(Susquehanna)分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰(Christopher Rolland)表示：“尽管其中许多公司的收入飙升至历史新高，但这些股票并没有效仿。”“这告诉我，目前这种恐慌情绪已经更广泛地融入到股票中。”</blockquote> The World Is Short of Computer Chips. Here’s Why: QuickTake<blockquote>世界上缺少计算机芯片。原因如下：QuickTake</blockquote> Auto Woes<blockquote>汽车灾难</blockquote> Chip shortages are also behind the estimated $210 billion in lost sales for carmakers this year. Many have reported a slump in revenues in the third quarter, worsened by shipping logjams and port congestion. However, with the industry’s troubles well documented, some analysts see most of the downside already priced in.<blockquote>芯片短缺也是汽车制造商今年估计2100亿美元销售额损失的原因。许多公司报告称，第三季度收入大幅下滑，航运堵塞和港口拥堵加剧了这种情况。然而，由于该行业的问题有据可查，一些分析师认为大部分下行因素已经被消化。</blockquote> “We see 3Q as likely being the trough in terms of auto production” in the U.S. although there could be multiple guidance cuts by suppliers, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts including Adam Jonas wrote Wednesday. “But production cuts seem well telegraphed, so don’t be surprised to see investors buy the 3Q chip dip.”<blockquote>“我们认为第三季度可能是美国汽车产量的低谷”。尽管供应商可能会多次下调指导，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>包括亚当·乔纳斯在内的分析师周三写道。“但减产似乎已经很明显了，所以看到投资者在第三季度芯片下跌时买入不要感到惊讶。”</blockquote> The MSCI AC World Automobiles &amp; Components Index has been climbing toward a seven-month relative high against the broader market since late August.<blockquote>自8月底以来，摩根士丹利资本国际AC世界汽车及零部件指数相对大盘一直在攀升至七个月相对高位。</blockquote> Carmakers such as Tesla Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a> Motor Corp. appear to be handling the shortages better than others, with the Japanese carmaker reporting a 1.4% increase in sales in the latest quarter.<blockquote>特斯拉等汽车制造商和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>汽车公司似乎比其他公司更好地应对了短缺问题，这家日本汽车制造商报告最近一个季度的销售额增长了1.4%。</blockquote> “Toyota has managed their chip supply very well so far” because they’ve been addressing supplier relationships differently after an earthquake earlier this year halted production, said Tineke Frikkee, head of U.K. equity research at Waverton Investment Management.<blockquote>Waverton Investment Management英国股票研究主管Tineke Frikkee表示，“到目前为止，丰田对芯片供应的管理非常好”，因为在今年早些时候的地震导致生产停止后，他们一直在以不同的方式处理供应商关系。</blockquote> The Wait for Semiconductors Turns Ominous for Automakers<blockquote>对半导体的等待对汽车制造商来说是不祥之兆</blockquote> Retail Trouble<blockquote>零售麻烦</blockquote> A 66% plunge in bellwether Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. shares since early June exemplifies the problems facing retailers globally, with multiple choke points in their supply chains just as they need to stock up for the most important time of the year. A gauge of the sector is trailing the broader market by more than seven percentage points this half, as companies cut forecasts for sales and profitability.<blockquote>自6月初以来，领头羊Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc.股价暴跌66%，这说明了全球零售商面临的问题，他们的供应链存在多个瓶颈，就在他们需要为一年中最重要的时刻备货的时候。由于企业下调了对销售和盈利能力的预测，今年上半年该行业的一项指标落后于大盘超过7个百分点。</blockquote> The challenges will “modestly” impact margins for the third quarter and have a more significant effect in the next, which captures the holiday season, said Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez.<blockquote>Telsey Advisory Group分析师克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯(Cristina Fernandez)表示，这些挑战将“适度”影响第三季度的利润率，并在下一季度（即假日季节）产生更显着的影响。</blockquote> Making matters worse are factory closures. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a> Inc. lowered its sales forecast in late September due to shutdowns in Vietnam, where tens of thousands of workers are now leaving the factory heartland. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DECK\">Deckers Outdoor</a> Corp., Skechers U.S.A. Inc., Adidas AG and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UA.C\">Under Armour</a> Inc. also have at least a quarter of their production in Vietnam, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Tom Nikic.<blockquote>更糟糕的是工厂关闭。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>由于越南停工，Inc.在9月底下调了销售预期，越南数万名工人正在离开工厂中心地带。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DECK\">德克斯户外</a>Corp.、斯凯奇美国公司、Adidas AG和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UA.C\">Under Armour</a>Wedbush Securities分析师Tom Nikic表示，Inc.至少四分之一的产量也在越南。</blockquote> “That said, the most-exposed stocks are down ~20% on average since mid-August, so we think investors have digested most of these issues,” Nikic wrote in a note Monday.<blockquote>尼基奇周一在一份报告中写道：“也就是说，自8月中旬以来，风险最大的股票平均下跌了约20%，因此我们认为投资者已经消化了大部分问题。”</blockquote> Raw Pain<blockquote>生痛</blockquote> What’s making matters worse for margins is a supply crunch within the commodity sector, driving raw material costs even higher for businesses already dealing with logistics issues.<blockquote>令利润率雪上加霜的是大宗商品行业的供应紧缩，对于已经在处理物流问题的企业来说，原材料成本甚至更高。</blockquote> “The next supply and demand disruption is on the energy front,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “We may see further supply issues if energy rationing becomes more widespread.”<blockquote>法国巴黎银行资产管理公司亚洲股票主管陈志凯表示：“下一个供需中断是在能源方面。”“如果能源配给变得更加普遍，我们可能会看到进一步的供应问题。”</blockquote> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>’s Global Earnings Revision Index -- a worldwide measure of analyst upgrades minus downgrades of profit expectations -- is plummeting toward negative territory after hitting an all-time high in May.<blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>全球盈利修正指数——衡量分析师上调利润预期减去下调的全球指标——在5月份创下历史新高后，正在暴跌至负值。</blockquote> Cotton climbed near a fresh decade high on Thursday, while decarbonization policies in China and India have led to an acute coal crunch and Europe’s natural gas prices are skyrocketing.<blockquote>棉花周四攀升至近十年新高，而中国和印度的脱碳政策导致煤炭严重短缺，欧洲天然气价格飙升。</blockquote> Still, energy shortages and high oil prices should be a positive for green energy producers, electric vehicles, the battery industry, and the entire green energy supply chain, said Willem Sels, chief investment officer of private banking and wealth management at HSBC Holdings Plc.<blockquote>汇丰控股私人银行和财富管理首席投资官威廉·塞尔斯表示，尽管如此，能源短缺和高油价对绿色能源生产商、电动汽车、电池行业以及整个绿色能源供应链来说应该是积极的。</blockquote> Not Spared<blockquote>不放过</blockquote> Industrial and construction firms are expected to warn about supply-chain troubles as they begin reporting third-quarter results later this month. Supermarkets to consumer staples firms to e-commerce companies are dealing with a shortage of truck drivers in parts of the world.<blockquote>工业和建筑公司预计将在本月晚些时候开始报告第三季度业绩时就供应链问题发出警告。从超市到消费品公司再到电子商务公司，世界部分地区都在应对卡车司机短缺的问题。</blockquote> And shippers still face a lack of cargo containers at the right place for the right price.<blockquote>托运人仍然面临着缺乏在合适的地点以合适的价格提供合适的货物集装箱的问题。</blockquote> “The broader industrials, the food sector and the construction industry have largely been left unscathed and are vulnerable to some more correction to reflect the risks,” said Sanders Morris Harris’s Ball.<blockquote>桑德斯·莫里斯·哈里斯的鲍尔表示：“更广泛的工业、食品行业和建筑业基本上没有受到影响，并且很容易受到更多调整以反映风险。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings<blockquote>股票投资者担心供应链困境可能会影响盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings<blockquote>股票投资者担心供应链困境可能会影响盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-10-11 07:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America. It’s also prompting downgrades across analysts estimates for the upcoming earnings season.<blockquote>（彭博社）——就在北美假日购物季开始之际，重新开放的需求和滞留的集装箱导致了整个供应链的瓶颈。这也促使分析师下调了对即将到来的财报季的预期。</blockquote> Few expect the supply snarls to end this year as an energy crisis stokes inflation fears. Caution abounds in the semiconductor, retail and raw material space.<blockquote>由于能源危机引发通胀担忧，很少有人预计供应混乱会在今年结束。半导体、零售和原材料领域充满了谨慎。</blockquote> “The supply-chain problems are going to stay, leading to substantially higher prices, and major dislocations in parts of markets no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is expecting,” said George <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLL\">Ball</a>, chairman of Houston-based investment firm Sanders Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRS\">Harris</a>. “Almost all segments of the economy that are not pure service or pure technology driven will be struggling with supply-chain issues for a long time.”<blockquote>“供应链问题将持续存在，导致价格大幅上涨，部分市场出现重大混乱。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>我在等着呢，”乔治说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLL\">球</a>休斯敦投资公司桑德斯·莫里斯董事长<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRS\">哈里斯</a>“几乎所有不是纯服务或纯技术驱动的经济领域都将在很长一段时间内与供应链问题作斗争。”</blockquote> The Many Reasons Why Global Supply Chains Have Become So Snarled<blockquote>全球供应链变得如此混乱的诸多原因</blockquote> Here are some challenges and opportunities identified by investors for key sectors ahead of the earnings season:<blockquote>以下是投资者在财报季之前为关键行业确定的一些挑战和机遇：</blockquote> Semi Snags<blockquote>半障碍</blockquote> For the semiconductor industry, expectations are for more capacity to only trickle in by the latter part of 2022 due to factory closures and longer delivery times. A power crunch in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> could also worsen the situation as it shuts down factories.<blockquote>对于半导体行业来说，由于工厂关闭和交货时间延长，预计到2022年下半年才会有更多产能流入。电力紧缩<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>随着工厂的关闭，情况也可能恶化。</blockquote> However, with hubs such as Malaysia reopening, the pricing power of some companies could weaken particularly at a time material costs such as silicon are soaring.<blockquote>然而，随着马来西亚等中心的重新开放，一些公司的定价权可能会减弱，尤其是在硅等材料成本飙升的情况下。</blockquote> Prices for DRAM and NAND chips already appear to be peaking, and 12-month forward earnings estimates for chipmaking giants Samsung Electronics Ltd., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a> Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Corp. have fluctuated or fallen in the past two months. Shares are down around 20% or more from recent peaks.<blockquote>DRAM和NAND芯片的价格似乎已经见顶，芯片制造巨头三星电子有限公司(Samsung Electronics Ltd.)的12个月盈利预期，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>公司和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>公司在过去两个月中波动或下跌。股价较近期峰值下跌约20%或更多。</blockquote> “Even though many of them have had revenues surge to all-time records, the stocks have not followed suit,” said Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland. “That tells me that at this point some of this consternation is baked into shares more broadly.”<blockquote>萨斯奎哈纳(Susquehanna)分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰(Christopher Rolland)表示：“尽管其中许多公司的收入飙升至历史新高，但这些股票并没有效仿。”“这告诉我，目前这种恐慌情绪已经更广泛地融入到股票中。”</blockquote> The World Is Short of Computer Chips. Here’s Why: QuickTake<blockquote>世界上缺少计算机芯片。原因如下：QuickTake</blockquote> Auto Woes<blockquote>汽车灾难</blockquote> Chip shortages are also behind the estimated $210 billion in lost sales for carmakers this year. Many have reported a slump in revenues in the third quarter, worsened by shipping logjams and port congestion. However, with the industry’s troubles well documented, some analysts see most of the downside already priced in.<blockquote>芯片短缺也是汽车制造商今年估计2100亿美元销售额损失的原因。许多公司报告称，第三季度收入大幅下滑，航运堵塞和港口拥堵加剧了这种情况。然而，由于该行业的问题有据可查，一些分析师认为大部分下行因素已经被消化。</blockquote> “We see 3Q as likely being the trough in terms of auto production” in the U.S. although there could be multiple guidance cuts by suppliers, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts including Adam Jonas wrote Wednesday. “But production cuts seem well telegraphed, so don’t be surprised to see investors buy the 3Q chip dip.”<blockquote>“我们认为第三季度可能是美国汽车产量的低谷”。尽管供应商可能会多次下调指导，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>包括亚当·乔纳斯在内的分析师周三写道。“但减产似乎已经很明显了，所以看到投资者在第三季度芯片下跌时买入不要感到惊讶。”</blockquote> The MSCI AC World Automobiles &amp; Components Index has been climbing toward a seven-month relative high against the broader market since late August.<blockquote>自8月底以来，摩根士丹利资本国际AC世界汽车及零部件指数相对大盘一直在攀升至七个月相对高位。</blockquote> Carmakers such as Tesla Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a> Motor Corp. appear to be handling the shortages better than others, with the Japanese carmaker reporting a 1.4% increase in sales in the latest quarter.<blockquote>特斯拉等汽车制造商和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>汽车公司似乎比其他公司更好地应对了短缺问题，这家日本汽车制造商报告最近一个季度的销售额增长了1.4%。</blockquote> “Toyota has managed their chip supply very well so far” because they’ve been addressing supplier relationships differently after an earthquake earlier this year halted production, said Tineke Frikkee, head of U.K. equity research at Waverton Investment Management.<blockquote>Waverton Investment Management英国股票研究主管Tineke Frikkee表示，“到目前为止，丰田对芯片供应的管理非常好”，因为在今年早些时候的地震导致生产停止后，他们一直在以不同的方式处理供应商关系。</blockquote> The Wait for Semiconductors Turns Ominous for Automakers<blockquote>对半导体的等待对汽车制造商来说是不祥之兆</blockquote> Retail Trouble<blockquote>零售麻烦</blockquote> A 66% plunge in bellwether Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. shares since early June exemplifies the problems facing retailers globally, with multiple choke points in their supply chains just as they need to stock up for the most important time of the year. A gauge of the sector is trailing the broader market by more than seven percentage points this half, as companies cut forecasts for sales and profitability.<blockquote>自6月初以来，领头羊Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc.股价暴跌66%，这说明了全球零售商面临的问题，他们的供应链存在多个瓶颈，就在他们需要为一年中最重要的时刻备货的时候。由于企业下调了对销售和盈利能力的预测，今年上半年该行业的一项指标落后于大盘超过7个百分点。</blockquote> The challenges will “modestly” impact margins for the third quarter and have a more significant effect in the next, which captures the holiday season, said Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez.<blockquote>Telsey Advisory Group分析师克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯(Cristina Fernandez)表示，这些挑战将“适度”影响第三季度的利润率，并在下一季度（即假日季节）产生更显着的影响。</blockquote> Making matters worse are factory closures. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a> Inc. lowered its sales forecast in late September due to shutdowns in Vietnam, where tens of thousands of workers are now leaving the factory heartland. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DECK\">Deckers Outdoor</a> Corp., Skechers U.S.A. Inc., Adidas AG and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UA.C\">Under Armour</a> Inc. also have at least a quarter of their production in Vietnam, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Tom Nikic.<blockquote>更糟糕的是工厂关闭。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">耐克</a>由于越南停工，Inc.在9月底下调了销售预期，越南数万名工人正在离开工厂中心地带。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DECK\">德克斯户外</a>Corp.、斯凯奇美国公司、Adidas AG和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UA.C\">Under Armour</a>Wedbush Securities分析师Tom Nikic表示，Inc.至少四分之一的产量也在越南。</blockquote> “That said, the most-exposed stocks are down ~20% on average since mid-August, so we think investors have digested most of these issues,” Nikic wrote in a note Monday.<blockquote>尼基奇周一在一份报告中写道：“也就是说，自8月中旬以来，风险最大的股票平均下跌了约20%，因此我们认为投资者已经消化了大部分问题。”</blockquote> Raw Pain<blockquote>生痛</blockquote> What’s making matters worse for margins is a supply crunch within the commodity sector, driving raw material costs even higher for businesses already dealing with logistics issues.<blockquote>令利润率雪上加霜的是大宗商品行业的供应紧缩，对于已经在处理物流问题的企业来说，原材料成本甚至更高。</blockquote> “The next supply and demand disruption is on the energy front,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “We may see further supply issues if energy rationing becomes more widespread.”<blockquote>法国巴黎银行资产管理公司亚洲股票主管陈志凯表示：“下一个供需中断是在能源方面。”“如果能源配给变得更加普遍，我们可能会看到进一步的供应问题。”</blockquote> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>’s Global Earnings Revision Index -- a worldwide measure of analyst upgrades minus downgrades of profit expectations -- is plummeting toward negative territory after hitting an all-time high in May.<blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>全球盈利修正指数——衡量分析师上调利润预期减去下调的全球指标——在5月份创下历史新高后，正在暴跌至负值。</blockquote> Cotton climbed near a fresh decade high on Thursday, while decarbonization policies in China and India have led to an acute coal crunch and Europe’s natural gas prices are skyrocketing.<blockquote>棉花周四攀升至近十年新高，而中国和印度的脱碳政策导致煤炭严重短缺，欧洲天然气价格飙升。</blockquote> Still, energy shortages and high oil prices should be a positive for green energy producers, electric vehicles, the battery industry, and the entire green energy supply chain, said Willem Sels, chief investment officer of private banking and wealth management at HSBC Holdings Plc.<blockquote>汇丰控股私人银行和财富管理首席投资官威廉·塞尔斯表示，尽管如此，能源短缺和高油价对绿色能源生产商、电动汽车、电池行业以及整个绿色能源供应链来说应该是积极的。</blockquote> Not Spared<blockquote>不放过</blockquote> Industrial and construction firms are expected to warn about supply-chain troubles as they begin reporting third-quarter results later this month. Supermarkets to consumer staples firms to e-commerce companies are dealing with a shortage of truck drivers in parts of the world.<blockquote>工业和建筑公司预计将在本月晚些时候开始报告第三季度业绩时就供应链问题发出警告。从超市到消费品公司再到电子商务公司，世界部分地区都在应对卡车司机短缺的问题。</blockquote> And shippers still face a lack of cargo containers at the right place for the right price.<blockquote>托运人仍然面临着缺乏在合适的地点以合适的价格提供合适的货物集装箱的问题。</blockquote> “The broader industrials, the food sector and the construction industry have largely been left unscathed and are vulnerable to some more correction to reflect the risks,” said Sanders Morris Harris’s Ball.<blockquote>桑德斯·莫里斯·哈里斯的鲍尔表示：“更广泛的工业、食品行业和建筑业基本上没有受到影响，并且很容易受到更多调整以反映风险。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-investors-fret-supply-chain-200000869.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","ISBC":"投资者银行","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-investors-fret-supply-chain-200000869.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138135043","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America. It’s also prompting downgrades across analysts estimates for the upcoming earnings season.\nFew expect the supply snarls to end this year as an energy crisis stokes inflation fears. Caution abounds in the semiconductor, retail and raw material space.\n“The supply-chain problems are going to stay, leading to substantially higher prices, and major dislocations in parts of markets no one is expecting,” said George Ball, chairman of Houston-based investment firm Sanders Morris Harris. “Almost all segments of the economy that are not pure service or pure technology driven will be struggling with supply-chain issues for a long time.”\nThe Many Reasons Why Global Supply Chains Have Become So Snarled\nHere are some challenges and opportunities identified by investors for key sectors ahead of the earnings season:\nSemi Snags\nFor the semiconductor industry, expectations are for more capacity to only trickle in by the latter part of 2022 due to factory closures and longer delivery times. A power crunch in China could also worsen the situation as it shuts down factories.\nHowever, with hubs such as Malaysia reopening, the pricing power of some companies could weaken particularly at a time material costs such as silicon are soaring.\nPrices for DRAM and NAND chips already appear to be peaking, and 12-month forward earnings estimates for chipmaking giants Samsung Electronics Ltd., Micron Technology Inc. and Intel Corp. have fluctuated or fallen in the past two months. Shares are down around 20% or more from recent peaks.\n“Even though many of them have had revenues surge to all-time records, the stocks have not followed suit,” said Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland. “That tells me that at this point some of this consternation is baked into shares more broadly.”\nThe World Is Short of Computer Chips. Here’s Why: QuickTake\nAuto Woes\nChip shortages are also behind the estimated $210 billion in lost sales for carmakers this year. Many have reported a slump in revenues in the third quarter, worsened by shipping logjams and port congestion. However, with the industry’s troubles well documented, some analysts see most of the downside already priced in.\n“We see 3Q as likely being the trough in terms of auto production” in the U.S. although there could be multiple guidance cuts by suppliers, Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Jonas wrote Wednesday. “But production cuts seem well telegraphed, so don’t be surprised to see investors buy the 3Q chip dip.”\nThe MSCI AC World Automobiles & Components Index has been climbing toward a seven-month relative high against the broader market since late August.\nCarmakers such as Tesla Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. appear to be handling the shortages better than others, with the Japanese carmaker reporting a 1.4% increase in sales in the latest quarter.\n“Toyota has managed their chip supply very well so far” because they’ve been addressing supplier relationships differently after an earthquake earlier this year halted production, said Tineke Frikkee, head of U.K. equity research at Waverton Investment Management.\nThe Wait for Semiconductors Turns Ominous for Automakers\nRetail Trouble\nA 66% plunge in bellwether Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares since early June exemplifies the problems facing retailers globally, with multiple choke points in their supply chains just as they need to stock up for the most important time of the year. A gauge of the sector is trailing the broader market by more than seven percentage points this half, as companies cut forecasts for sales and profitability.\nThe challenges will “modestly” impact margins for the third quarter and have a more significant effect in the next, which captures the holiday season, said Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez.\nMaking matters worse are factory closures. Nike Inc. lowered its sales forecast in late September due to shutdowns in Vietnam, where tens of thousands of workers are now leaving the factory heartland. Deckers Outdoor Corp., Skechers U.S.A. Inc., Adidas AG and Under Armour Inc. also have at least a quarter of their production in Vietnam, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Tom Nikic.\n“That said, the most-exposed stocks are down ~20% on average since mid-August, so we think investors have digested most of these issues,” Nikic wrote in a note Monday.\nRaw Pain\nWhat’s making matters worse for margins is a supply crunch within the commodity sector, driving raw material costs even higher for businesses already dealing with logistics issues.\n“The next supply and demand disruption is on the energy front,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “We may see further supply issues if energy rationing becomes more widespread.”\nCitigroup’s Global Earnings Revision Index -- a worldwide measure of analyst upgrades minus downgrades of profit expectations -- is plummeting toward negative territory after hitting an all-time high in May.\nCotton climbed near a fresh decade high on Thursday, while decarbonization policies in China and India have led to an acute coal crunch and Europe’s natural gas prices are skyrocketing.\nStill, energy shortages and high oil prices should be a positive for green energy producers, electric vehicles, the battery industry, and the entire green energy supply chain, said Willem Sels, chief investment officer of private banking and wealth management at HSBC Holdings Plc.\nNot Spared\nIndustrial and construction firms are expected to warn about supply-chain troubles as they begin reporting third-quarter results later this month. Supermarkets to consumer staples firms to e-commerce companies are dealing with a shortage of truck drivers in parts of the world.\nAnd shippers still face a lack of cargo containers at the right place for the right price.\n“The broader industrials, the food sector and the construction industry have largely been left unscathed and are vulnerable to some more correction to reflect the risks,” said Sanders Morris Harris’s Ball.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ISBC":0.9,"MU":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":67,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/828737874"}