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2021-10-06
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Is This the Real Turning Point for Aviation Stocks?<blockquote>这是航空股真正的拐点吗？</blockquote>
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Things could get smoother, but it is worth shelling out for a first-class ticket.</p><p><blockquote><b>投资者今年夏天受到了伤害，但跨大西洋的重新开放和全球疫苗接种率的提高可能会使当前的反弹更具可持续性。</b>购买航空股以应对疫情复苏的投资者已经惨痛认识到，这是一次动荡的旅程。事情可能会变得更顺利，但花一张头等舱机票是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> Airline stocks have gained more than 10% over the past month, as broader equity markets tumbled. However, this is merely a partial rebound from a bad summer for aviation shares, including those of plane makers. Only budget-airline stocks currently trade above their pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote>随着大盘股市暴跌，航空股在过去一个月上涨了10%以上。然而，对于包括飞机制造商在内的航空股来说，这只是从糟糕的夏季中的部分反弹。目前只有廉价航空公司股票的交易价格高于新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Money flocked to the sector after February, as vaccination campaigns led to asharp improvementin ticket sales. On top ofhopes of pent-up demand for summer travel, carriers were expected to emerge from the crisis with lower unit costs, having cut as much fat as possible.</p><p><blockquote>二月份之后，随着疫苗接种活动导致门票销售大幅改善，资金涌入该行业。除了被压抑的夏季旅行需求的希望之外，航空公司预计将通过尽可能多地削减成本，以更低的单位成本摆脱危机。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594e082458943c27730f9e895b91b7b2\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">When the summer actually came around, though, it became apparent that there was some wishful thinking baked into the trade.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当夏天真正到来时，很明显这个行业存在一些一厢情愿的想法。</blockquote></p><p> One problem was that anexcessive focus on bumper U.S. numbersobscured the havoc caused by coronavirus variants in developing nations, which ended up affecting domestic U.S. traffic too. The long tail of the pandemic has delayed the reopening of transcontinental routes, pushed back the return of corporate travel and kept global seat capacity stagnant.</p><p><blockquote>一个问题是，过度关注美国的大量数据掩盖了冠状病毒变种在发展中国家造成的破坏，最终也影响了美国国内的交通。疫情的长尾推迟了跨洲航线的重新开放，推迟了商务旅行的回归，并使全球座位容量停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, many carriers, especially in Europe, likely had to keep fares low tolure vacationersto a handful of available destinations; coming third-quarter reports will shed light on just how low. The cutthroat nature of the airline business means it isn’t a straightforward “reopening trade.” American airlines have already announced big fleet expansions and cabin refurbishments totempt business travelers back. The consequent 17% growth in U.S. domestic narrow-body seats between 2020 and 2023 could end up having a big impact on the fares passengers pay to fly a mile, according to estimates by Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jefferies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，许多航空公司，尤其是欧洲的航空公司，可能不得不保持较低的票价，以吸引度假者前往少数可用的目的地；即将发布的第三季度报告将揭示到底有多低。航空业的残酷本质意味着这不是一个简单的“重新开放贸易”。美国航空公司已经宣布大规模机队扩张和客舱翻新，以吸引商务旅客回来。据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的希拉·卡亚奥格鲁(Sheila Kahyaoglu)估计，2020年至2023年间，美国国内窄体座位数量将增长17%，最终可能会对乘客飞行一英里的票价产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df8db4466ab928080a8fc016535efef\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A final summer lesson was that quickly bringing aircraft and staff back involvedmore expenses and headachesthan expected, to the point that analysts are rethinking their thesis ofpermanently lower costs. For most of this year, consensus unit-cost forecasts for the top-three U.S. legacy carriers for the next two years have been consistently reduced, but recently they have started to rise again, figures from Visible Alpha show.</p><p><blockquote>夏季的最后一个教训是，快速恢复飞机和员工涉及比预期更多的费用和头痛，以至于分析师正在重新考虑他们永久降低成本的论点。Visible Alpha的数据显示，在今年的大部分时间里，美国三大传统运营商未来两年的单位成本共识预测一直在下调，但最近又开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> And yet, we seem more likely to be at a genuine turning point now than before the summer. Airline capacity across countries has roughly tracked vaccination rates this year, and the percentage of the world population that has received at least one dose is finally approaching 50%. Cases appear to have peaked in the U.S., which has said it would reopen for European travelers sometime in November.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与夏季之前相比，我们现在似乎更有可能处于真正的转折点。今年各国的航空运力大致跟踪了疫苗接种率，世界人口中至少接种一剂疫苗的比例终于接近50%。美国的病例似乎已经达到顶峰，美国表示将在11月的某个时候重新向欧洲游客开放。</blockquote></p><p> With hints that other travel barriers could soon fall and the additional support of rising bond yields, aviation stocks may have fuel left to burn during the coming earnings season. The numbers themselves will look stellar relative to last year’s washout third quarter: Wall Street analysts expect the S&P 500 industrial sector to post earnings growth of 65%, of which carriers are expected to contribute three-quarters.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明其他旅行障碍可能很快就会消失，以及债券收益率上升的额外支撑，航空股在即将到来的财报季可能还有燃料可供燃烧。与去年第三季度的低迷相比，这些数字本身看起来非常出色：华尔街分析师预计标普500工业部门的盈利将增长65%，其中运营商预计将贡献其中的四分之三。</blockquote></p><p> Still, best-in-class names likeDelta Air Lines,Southwest Airlines,AirbusandRyanairseem like the safest way to profit from any positive market sentiment. In aviation, too much bargain hunting often puts investors in a tight spot.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，达美航空、西南航空、空客和瑞安航空等一流航空公司似乎是从积极的市场情绪中获利的最安全方式。在航空业，过多的抄底往往会让投资者陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Heard Stock-Picking Leaderboard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>听说选股排行榜</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82055a624f21f880942ae2a0fd4b872a\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This the Real Turning Point for Aviation Stocks?<blockquote>这是航空股真正的拐点吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This the Real Turning Point for Aviation Stocks?<blockquote>这是航空股真正的拐点吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 19:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Investors got burned this summer, but the trans-Atlantic reopening and improving global vaccination rates could make the current rally more sustainable.</b> Investors who bought aviation stocks to ride the pandemic recovery have learned the hard way that this is a turbulent trip. Things could get smoother, but it is worth shelling out for a first-class ticket.</p><p><blockquote><b>投资者今年夏天受到了伤害，但跨大西洋的重新开放和全球疫苗接种率的提高可能会使当前的反弹更具可持续性。</b>购买航空股以应对疫情复苏的投资者已经惨痛认识到，这是一次动荡的旅程。事情可能会变得更顺利，但花一张头等舱机票是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> Airline stocks have gained more than 10% over the past month, as broader equity markets tumbled. However, this is merely a partial rebound from a bad summer for aviation shares, including those of plane makers. Only budget-airline stocks currently trade above their pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote>随着大盘股市暴跌，航空股在过去一个月上涨了10%以上。然而，对于包括飞机制造商在内的航空股来说，这只是从糟糕的夏季中的部分反弹。目前只有廉价航空公司股票的交易价格高于新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Money flocked to the sector after February, as vaccination campaigns led to asharp improvementin ticket sales. On top ofhopes of pent-up demand for summer travel, carriers were expected to emerge from the crisis with lower unit costs, having cut as much fat as possible.</p><p><blockquote>二月份之后，随着疫苗接种活动导致门票销售大幅改善，资金涌入该行业。除了被压抑的夏季旅行需求的希望之外，航空公司预计将通过尽可能多地削减成本，以更低的单位成本摆脱危机。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/594e082458943c27730f9e895b91b7b2\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">When the summer actually came around, though, it became apparent that there was some wishful thinking baked into the trade.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当夏天真正到来时，很明显这个行业存在一些一厢情愿的想法。</blockquote></p><p> One problem was that anexcessive focus on bumper U.S. numbersobscured the havoc caused by coronavirus variants in developing nations, which ended up affecting domestic U.S. traffic too. The long tail of the pandemic has delayed the reopening of transcontinental routes, pushed back the return of corporate travel and kept global seat capacity stagnant.</p><p><blockquote>一个问题是，过度关注美国的大量数据掩盖了冠状病毒变种在发展中国家造成的破坏，最终也影响了美国国内的交通。疫情的长尾推迟了跨洲航线的重新开放，推迟了商务旅行的回归，并使全球座位容量停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, many carriers, especially in Europe, likely had to keep fares low tolure vacationersto a handful of available destinations; coming third-quarter reports will shed light on just how low. The cutthroat nature of the airline business means it isn’t a straightforward “reopening trade.” American airlines have already announced big fleet expansions and cabin refurbishments totempt business travelers back. The consequent 17% growth in U.S. domestic narrow-body seats between 2020 and 2023 could end up having a big impact on the fares passengers pay to fly a mile, according to estimates by Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jefferies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，许多航空公司，尤其是欧洲的航空公司，可能不得不保持较低的票价，以吸引度假者前往少数可用的目的地；即将发布的第三季度报告将揭示到底有多低。航空业的残酷本质意味着这不是一个简单的“重新开放贸易”。美国航空公司已经宣布大规模机队扩张和客舱翻新，以吸引商务旅客回来。据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的希拉·卡亚奥格鲁(Sheila Kahyaoglu)估计，2020年至2023年间，美国国内窄体座位数量将增长17%，最终可能会对乘客飞行一英里的票价产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df8db4466ab928080a8fc016535efef\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A final summer lesson was that quickly bringing aircraft and staff back involvedmore expenses and headachesthan expected, to the point that analysts are rethinking their thesis ofpermanently lower costs. For most of this year, consensus unit-cost forecasts for the top-three U.S. legacy carriers for the next two years have been consistently reduced, but recently they have started to rise again, figures from Visible Alpha show.</p><p><blockquote>夏季的最后一个教训是，快速恢复飞机和员工涉及比预期更多的费用和头痛，以至于分析师正在重新考虑他们永久降低成本的论点。Visible Alpha的数据显示，在今年的大部分时间里，美国三大传统运营商未来两年的单位成本共识预测一直在下调，但最近又开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> And yet, we seem more likely to be at a genuine turning point now than before the summer. Airline capacity across countries has roughly tracked vaccination rates this year, and the percentage of the world population that has received at least one dose is finally approaching 50%. Cases appear to have peaked in the U.S., which has said it would reopen for European travelers sometime in November.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与夏季之前相比，我们现在似乎更有可能处于真正的转折点。今年各国的航空运力大致跟踪了疫苗接种率，世界人口中至少接种一剂疫苗的比例终于接近50%。美国的病例似乎已经达到顶峰，美国表示将在11月的某个时候重新向欧洲游客开放。</blockquote></p><p> With hints that other travel barriers could soon fall and the additional support of rising bond yields, aviation stocks may have fuel left to burn during the coming earnings season. The numbers themselves will look stellar relative to last year’s washout third quarter: Wall Street analysts expect the S&P 500 industrial sector to post earnings growth of 65%, of which carriers are expected to contribute three-quarters.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明其他旅行障碍可能很快就会消失，以及债券收益率上升的额外支撑，航空股在即将到来的财报季可能还有燃料可供燃烧。与去年第三季度的低迷相比，这些数字本身看起来非常出色：华尔街分析师预计标普500工业部门的盈利将增长65%，其中运营商预计将贡献其中的四分之三。</blockquote></p><p> Still, best-in-class names likeDelta Air Lines,Southwest Airlines,AirbusandRyanairseem like the safest way to profit from any positive market sentiment. In aviation, too much bargain hunting often puts investors in a tight spot.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，达美航空、西南航空、空客和瑞安航空等一流航空公司似乎是从积极的市场情绪中获利的最安全方式。在航空业，过多的抄底往往会让投资者陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Heard Stock-Picking Leaderboard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>听说选股排行榜</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82055a624f21f880942ae2a0fd4b872a\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-this-the-real-turning-point-for-aviation-stocks-11633517051?mod=rss_markets_main\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAVE":"Spirit Airlines","DAL":"达美航空","LUV":"西南航空","UAL":"联合大陆航空","AAL":"美国航空"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-this-the-real-turning-point-for-aviation-stocks-11633517051?mod=rss_markets_main","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140550846","content_text":"Investors got burned this summer, but the trans-Atlantic reopening and improving global vaccination rates could make the current rally more sustainable.\n\nInvestors who bought aviation stocks to ride the pandemic recovery have learned the hard way that this is a turbulent trip. Things could get smoother, but it is worth shelling out for a first-class ticket.\nAirline stocks have gained more than 10% over the past month, as broader equity markets tumbled. However, this is merely a partial rebound from a bad summer for aviation shares, including those of plane makers. Only budget-airline stocks currently trade above their pre-Covid levels.\nMoney flocked to the sector after February, as vaccination campaigns led to asharp improvementin ticket sales. On top ofhopes of pent-up demand for summer travel, carriers were expected to emerge from the crisis with lower unit costs, having cut as much fat as possible.\nWhen the summer actually came around, though, it became apparent that there was some wishful thinking baked into the trade.\nOne problem was that anexcessive focus on bumper U.S. numbersobscured the havoc caused by coronavirus variants in developing nations, which ended up affecting domestic U.S. traffic too. The long tail of the pandemic has delayed the reopening of transcontinental routes, pushed back the return of corporate travel and kept global seat capacity stagnant.\nMoreover, many carriers, especially in Europe, likely had to keep fares low tolure vacationersto a handful of available destinations; coming third-quarter reports will shed light on just how low. The cutthroat nature of the airline business means it isn’t a straightforward “reopening trade.” American airlines have already announced big fleet expansions and cabin refurbishments totempt business travelers back. The consequent 17% growth in U.S. domestic narrow-body seats between 2020 and 2023 could end up having a big impact on the fares passengers pay to fly a mile, according to estimates by Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jefferies.\nA final summer lesson was that quickly bringing aircraft and staff back involvedmore expenses and headachesthan expected, to the point that analysts are rethinking their thesis ofpermanently lower costs. For most of this year, consensus unit-cost forecasts for the top-three U.S. legacy carriers for the next two years have been consistently reduced, but recently they have started to rise again, figures from Visible Alpha show.\nAnd yet, we seem more likely to be at a genuine turning point now than before the summer. Airline capacity across countries has roughly tracked vaccination rates this year, and the percentage of the world population that has received at least one dose is finally approaching 50%. Cases appear to have peaked in the U.S., which has said it would reopen for European travelers sometime in November.\nWith hints that other travel barriers could soon fall and the additional support of rising bond yields, aviation stocks may have fuel left to burn during the coming earnings season. The numbers themselves will look stellar relative to last year’s washout third quarter: Wall Street analysts expect the S&P 500 industrial sector to post earnings growth of 65%, of which carriers are expected to contribute three-quarters.\nStill, best-in-class names likeDelta Air Lines,Southwest Airlines,AirbusandRyanairseem like the safest way to profit from any positive market sentiment. In aviation, too much bargain hunting often puts investors in a tight spot.\nHeard Stock-Picking Leaderboard","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UAL":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"SAVE":0.9,"LUV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/829500792"}
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