夜行星
2021-08-15
Potential growth
How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来股票的价值</blockquote>
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But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.So where does Nio $$","content":"<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市中心的一家蔚来店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，其市值为602亿美元。以此衡量，它比1903年成立的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能是有意义的——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>该公司在周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资理论吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与2025年预计收益的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的10家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销售额或交付量（如果两者都报告，以较高者为准）以及表下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——名单上的特斯拉公司和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特主要生产内燃机汽车，其速度几乎是蔚来电动汽车生产速度的35倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并不都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数人都没有公布电动汽车销量。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>在那些这样做的国家中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而蔚来和特斯拉则占100%。丰田的PHEV销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括PHEV（占第二季度销量的6.7%）和BEV（占总销量的4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：总计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付量的细分数据尚未公布，但2021年上半年，交付了153,243辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，或占总交付量的11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测之比</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这类公司关注的是增长而不是利润。这方面的一个例子是亚马逊公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>几十年来，该公司的市盈率一直很高，因为它一直在努力扩展到新的业务领域，但牺牲了利润。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用持续大量销售传统汽车的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会凸显。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以12个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用对2022年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和FactSet调查的分析师对2022年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括截至2025年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和2025年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于2023年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来市盈率估值，标普500指数的加权交易价格是2022年每股收益普遍预期的20.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与销售额之比</b></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润较低或净亏损的早期公司来说，远期市销率估计可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年中上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价却上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组推动市销率的类似数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的共识全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其2022年普遍销售预期的2.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师对10家汽车制造商的看法摘要。对于主要在美国以外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来股票的价值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来股票的价值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarkeWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市中心的一家蔚来店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，其市值为602亿美元。以此衡量，它比1903年成立的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能是有意义的——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>该公司在周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资理论吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与2025年预计收益的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的10家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销售额或交付量（如果两者都报告，以较高者为准）以及表下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——名单上的特斯拉公司和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特主要生产内燃机汽车，其速度几乎是蔚来电动汽车生产速度的35倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并不都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数人都没有公布电动汽车销量。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>在那些这样做的国家中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而蔚来和特斯拉则占100%。丰田的PHEV销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括PHEV（占第二季度销量的6.7%）和BEV（占总销量的4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：总计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付量的细分数据尚未公布，但2021年上半年，交付了153,243辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，或占总交付量的11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测之比</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这类公司关注的是增长而不是利润。这方面的一个例子是亚马逊公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>几十年来，该公司的市盈率一直很高，因为它一直在努力扩展到新的业务领域，但牺牲了利润。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用持续大量销售传统汽车的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会凸显。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以12个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用对2022年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和FactSet调查的分析师对2022年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括截至2025年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和2025年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于2023年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来市盈率估值，标普500指数的加权交易价格是2022年每股收益普遍预期的20.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与销售额之比</b></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润较低或净亏损的早期公司来说，远期市销率估计可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年中上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价却上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组推动市销率的类似数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的共识全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其2022年普遍销售预期的2.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师对10家汽车制造商的看法摘要。对于主要在美国以外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news\">MarkeWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","STLA":"Stellantis NV","HMC":"本田汽车","GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159214569","content_text":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.\nA Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)\nChinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.\nThat might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.\nSo where does Nio $(NIO)$, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.\nDoubling car production\nFor the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.\nHere's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYou can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.\nFor now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.\nOne thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.\nAmong those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:\nFor Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.\nVolkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.\nFor Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.\nValuation to earnings estimates\nFor companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.\nA high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.\nThen again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.\nNormally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.\nFirst, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:\n\nNio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.\nValuation to sales\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.\nHere's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:\n\nFor reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalysts' opinions\nHere's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STLA":0.9,"HMC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"GM":0.9,"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/830016756"}
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