Juiceisnice
2021-08-15
INTC!
AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote>
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However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的罗兹巨像，是摩尔定律力量的丰碑。然而，该公司在 10 纳米工艺方面遇到了困难，最近宣布其 7 纳米工艺将推迟到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) 敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD 已经占据了 CPU 市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 现已连续七个季度实现两位数收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长 60%，高于上一季度预测的 50%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 还与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者的 GPU 技术正在抢走市场份额。NVDA 还成功凭借其 GPU 进入邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>了解英特尔还可以深入了解 AMD。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM的要求，即英特尔不会成为芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场占据双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是，两者都有一条与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机尤其基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像个人电脑一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，作为x86芯片的供应商，AMD还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD 与台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）合作，利用该制造商的 7 纳米工艺在工艺技术上超越了 INTC。再加上 AMD 开发新的创新芯片设计，这种一举两得的打击导致 INTC 失去了大量市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Q1末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一家垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司主导着服务器市场，仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场60%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有巨额研发预算，并通过收购 Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius 和 Mobileye，正在扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应仅仅因为 7 优于 10 就声称英特尔的新 10 纳米芯片不如 7 纳米。虽然它曾经被用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被滥用到毫无用处的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，必须承认一些关切。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的逆风。另一方面，应该承认的是，随着移动设备和云计算的激增，INTC 的服务器处理器业务也取得了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在数据中心领域还面临着来自 AMD 的日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为 CPU 开发自己的基于 ARM 的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，INTC 占据了 x86 市场的最大份额。这在一定程度上要归功于英特尔领先的制造技术，以及 AMD 与不太出色的 GlobalFoundries 签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素发生了翻天覆地的变化：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电进行生产，英特尔面临反复的制造延迟。下面的两个图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD 的主要产品也是 CPU 和 GPU。AMD 的芯片专为 PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与 INTC 一样，AMD 的产品在很大程度上免受竞争影响，因为 PC 和服务器软件大多是为 x86 架构设计的。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的强劲增长在很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为 AMD 一直在稳步蚕食英特尔的 CPU 市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 专注于 CPU 和 GPU 半定制处理器应用，这使得它们在微软 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机中得到应用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在 PC 集成 GPU 方面，AMD 与 NVIDIA 大致持平，而 INTC 则以约 68% 的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：汤姆硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英伟达以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD横扫了剩下的市场。英伟达的独立 GPU 可以说优于 AMD（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应在这里寻求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 的 EPYC 服务器 CPU 产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但该公司最初依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代 EPYC 产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器 CPU 的利润率高于公司的其他产品，因此向该领域的扩张将有助于推动收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD 达成收购现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 芯片领导者赛灵思 (XLNX) 的交易。FPGA可用于各种各样的应用。由于转向竞争的 FPGA 供应商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争供应商。因此，如果赛灵思交易成功，AMD 将获得广泛的护城河业务。交易完成后 18 个月内运营效率管理指南约为 3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购赛灵思将有助于增强 AMD 的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 同意以 350 亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立 GPU 领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）分立 GPU 领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，从图灵到安培。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也应用于许多高端个人电脑中，NVDA 在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有实力。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正在与CPU合作，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达不断发展的优势。该公司在云计算领域崭露头角的另一个领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是 NVDA 最有可能的增长途径。为了巩固其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以 400 亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了 ARM Holdings (ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM 是全球最大的芯片设计许可商。它的芯片无处不在，可以在手机、智能电视和平板电脑中找到。使用ARM设计已经制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，1300万开发者使用ARM设备。从上下文来看，NVDA 有 200 万开发人员在其设备阵列上工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和theU.K.都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有“远期”字样的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致估计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用一张图表来提供这三家公司的 PEG 比率。由于分析师的输入会导致 PEG 比率出现相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我更希望读者能够获得多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的挂钩，Schwab只是将其指标列为挂钩比率，而Yahoo!财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显 NVDA 被高估了。同样有趣的是，在当前的市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计中，AMD 的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>把我算作一个非常重视股票挂钩比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD 是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，每个消息来源的分析师都计算出 AMD 的 PEG 比率好于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要曲解我的发现。虽然 INTC 在许多方面的估值较低，但当考虑其他因素时，我对 AMD 的总体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方法来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价目前交易价格为 202.95 美元。33 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 186.49 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 17 位分析师的平均目标价为 210.53 美元，比该股当前价格高出约 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 股价目前交易价格为 107.58 美元。28 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 108.56 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 11 位分析师的平均目标价为 117.27 美元，比当前股价高出约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为 54.05 美元。34 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 59.86 美元。最新收益报告发布后，对该股进行评级的 16 位分析师的平均目标价为 58.97 美元，比当前股价溢价 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，距离 NVDA 发布季度收益以及 INTC 和 AMD 最近发布季度收益已经近三个月了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=平局AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了增长率的数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计 INTC 在增长方面的表现将不如 NVDA 和 AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于 NVIDIA，有时甚至领先于 NVIDIA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，可以说，每一个都是高利润的，这三个并置将导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供一个细分股息指标的比较，但 AMD 不支付股息，而 NVDA 的收益率也很低。INTC 目前的收益率约为 2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达上季度末拥有 126.7 亿美元现金和 59.6 亿美元现金。如果 ARM 收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使 400 亿美元收购价格中的 210 亿美元将有库存。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 重组了债务，降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD 拥有约 38 亿美元现金和 3.13 亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有雄厚的财务状况。权衡 NVDA 和 AMD 可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级为同等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次对企业的研发预算进行针锋相对的对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔研发投入超过135亿美元，NVDA花费近28.3亿美元，AMD研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，这种弱点被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。值得注意的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了代工业务。然而，它是这里明显的赢家，而AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我还应该补充一点，NVDA 正在蚕食 AMD 在独立 GPU 市场的份额，我相信这一趋势还会继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：哪只芯片股最好？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于 ARM 处理器比 x86 芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA 可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能会给 INTC 带来阻力，而给 NVDA 带来利好。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划中的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个需要权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场与INTC平起平坐。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 正在将独立 GPU 市场的份额输给 NVDA。NVDA 在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 和 NVDA 被视为增长机器，但我们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上一季度增长了 47%。Mobileye 的增长也激增，收入增长了 124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，只是英特尔185亿美元总收入的一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长的领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但请注意，标题指的是 “芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和未来增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于当前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级是基于股票的当前估值。我感谢公司的模范领导，并相信该股的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我还将 INTC 评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将为长期投资者提供良好的服务，但我现在相信其复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且还有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将 AMD 评级为买入。这是基于本文中概述的当前估值和增长率。我还要补充一点，我认为随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD 很可能会蚕食市场份额，这也支撑了这些指标。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步了解AMD和INTC投资的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li> <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li> <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.</li> <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 最近的 CPU 和 GPU 产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD 的 EPYC 服务器芯片可与某些英特尔芯片媲美甚至更胜一筹，并帮助 AMD 获得了服务器 CPU 市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍然是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面长期保持着相对于AMD的优势。</li><li>英伟达在 GPU 技术方面领先于 AMD，并正在利用其 GPU 进入人工智能等邻近终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的罗兹巨像，是摩尔定律力量的丰碑。然而，该公司在 10 纳米工艺方面遇到了困难，最近宣布其 7 纳米工艺将推迟到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) 敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD 已经占据了 CPU 市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 现已连续七个季度实现两位数收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长 60%，高于上一季度预测的 50%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 还与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者的 GPU 技术正在抢走市场份额。NVDA 还成功凭借其 GPU 进入邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>了解英特尔还可以深入了解 AMD。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM的要求，即英特尔不会成为芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场占据双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是，两者都有一条与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机尤其基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像个人电脑一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，作为x86芯片的供应商，AMD还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD 与台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）合作，利用该制造商的 7 纳米工艺在工艺技术上超越了 INTC。再加上 AMD 开发新的创新芯片设计，这种一举两得的打击导致 INTC 失去了大量市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Q1末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一家垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司主导着服务器市场，仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场60%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有巨额研发预算，并通过收购 Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius 和 Mobileye，正在扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应仅仅因为 7 优于 10 就声称英特尔的新 10 纳米芯片不如 7 纳米。虽然它曾经被用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被滥用到毫无用处的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，必须承认一些关切。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的逆风。另一方面，应该承认的是，随着移动设备和云计算的激增，INTC 的服务器处理器业务也取得了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在数据中心领域还面临着来自 AMD 的日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为 CPU 开发自己的基于 ARM 的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，INTC 占据了 x86 市场的最大份额。这在一定程度上要归功于英特尔领先的制造技术，以及 AMD 与不太出色的 GlobalFoundries 签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素发生了翻天覆地的变化：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电进行生产，英特尔面临反复的制造延迟。下面的两个图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD 的主要产品也是 CPU 和 GPU。AMD 的芯片专为 PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与 INTC 一样，AMD 的产品在很大程度上免受竞争影响，因为 PC 和服务器软件大多是为 x86 架构设计的。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的强劲增长在很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为 AMD 一直在稳步蚕食英特尔的 CPU 市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 专注于 CPU 和 GPU 半定制处理器应用，这使得它们在微软 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机中得到应用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在 PC 集成 GPU 方面，AMD 与 NVIDIA 大致持平，而 INTC 则以约 68% 的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：汤姆硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英伟达以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD横扫了剩下的市场。英伟达的独立 GPU 可以说优于 AMD（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应在这里寻求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 的 EPYC 服务器 CPU 产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但该公司最初依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代 EPYC 产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器 CPU 的利润率高于公司的其他产品，因此向该领域的扩张将有助于推动收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD 达成收购现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 芯片领导者赛灵思 (XLNX) 的交易。FPGA可用于各种各样的应用。由于转向竞争的 FPGA 供应商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争供应商。因此，如果赛灵思交易成功，AMD 将获得广泛的护城河业务。交易完成后 18 个月内运营效率管理指南约为 3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购赛灵思将有助于增强 AMD 的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 同意以 350 亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立 GPU 领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）分立 GPU 领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，从图灵到安培。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也应用于许多高端个人电脑中，NVDA 在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有实力。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正在与CPU合作，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达不断发展的优势。该公司在云计算领域崭露头角的另一个领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是 NVDA 最有可能的增长途径。为了巩固其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以 400 亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了 ARM Holdings (ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM 是全球最大的芯片设计许可商。它的芯片无处不在，可以在手机、智能电视和平板电脑中找到。使用ARM设计已经制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，1300万开发者使用ARM设备。从上下文来看，NVDA 有 200 万开发人员在其设备阵列上工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和theU.K.都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有“远期”字样的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致估计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用一张图表来提供这三家公司的 PEG 比率。由于分析师的输入会导致 PEG 比率出现相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我更希望读者能够获得多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的挂钩，Schwab只是将其指标列为挂钩比率，而Yahoo!财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显 NVDA 被高估了。同样有趣的是，在当前的市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计中，AMD 的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>把我算作一个非常重视股票挂钩比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD 是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，每个消息来源的分析师都计算出 AMD 的 PEG 比率好于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要曲解我的发现。虽然 INTC 在许多方面的估值较低，但当考虑其他因素时，我对 AMD 的总体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方法来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价目前交易价格为 202.95 美元。33 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 186.49 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 17 位分析师的平均目标价为 210.53 美元，比该股当前价格高出约 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 股价目前交易价格为 107.58 美元。28 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 108.56 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 11 位分析师的平均目标价为 117.27 美元，比当前股价高出约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为 54.05 美元。34 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 59.86 美元。最新收益报告发布后，对该股进行评级的 16 位分析师的平均目标价为 58.97 美元，比当前股价溢价 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，距离 NVDA 发布季度收益以及 INTC 和 AMD 最近发布季度收益已经近三个月了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=平局AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了增长率的数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计 INTC 在增长方面的表现将不如 NVDA 和 AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于 NVIDIA，有时甚至领先于 NVIDIA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，可以说，每一个都是高利润的，这三个并置将导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供一个细分股息指标的比较，但 AMD 不支付股息，而 NVDA 的收益率也很低。INTC 目前的收益率约为 2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达上季度末拥有 126.7 亿美元现金和 59.6 亿美元现金。如果 ARM 收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使 400 亿美元收购价格中的 210 亿美元将有库存。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 重组了债务，降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD 拥有约 38 亿美元现金和 3.13 亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有雄厚的财务状况。权衡 NVDA 和 AMD 可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级为同等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次对企业的研发预算进行针锋相对的对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔研发投入超过135亿美元，NVDA花费近28.3亿美元，AMD研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，这种弱点被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。值得注意的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了代工业务。然而，它是这里明显的赢家，而AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我还应该补充一点，NVDA 正在蚕食 AMD 在独立 GPU 市场的份额，我相信这一趋势还会继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：哪只芯片股最好？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于 ARM 处理器比 x86 芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA 可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能会给 INTC 带来阻力，而给 NVDA 带来利好。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划中的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个需要权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场与INTC平起平坐。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 正在将独立 GPU 市场的份额输给 NVDA。NVDA 在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 和 NVDA 被视为增长机器，但我们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上一季度增长了 47%。Mobileye 的增长也激增，收入增长了 124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，只是英特尔185亿美元总收入的一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长的领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但请注意，标题指的是 “芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和未来增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于当前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级是基于股票的当前估值。我感谢公司的模范领导，并相信该股的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我还将 INTC 评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将为长期投资者提供良好的服务，但我现在相信其复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且还有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将 AMD 评级为买入。这是基于本文中概述的当前估值和增长率。我还要补充一点，我认为随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD 很可能会蚕食市场份额，这也支撑了这些指标。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步了解AMD和INTC投资的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad74e350b9b09d45929989f896aaa9d","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138705612","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.\nAMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.\nEven so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.\nNvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.\n\nAndy/iStock via Getty Images\nIntel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.\nThis left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.\nAMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.\nHowever, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.\nThe Ins And Outs of Intel\nAn understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.\nConsequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.\nGaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.\nUntil fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.\nAt the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.\nDespite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.\nThe company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.\nInvestors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.\nHowever, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.\nIntel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.\nAn Overview of AMD\nIn years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.\nHowever, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nLike Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.\nAMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.\nIn regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.\nSource:tom'sHARDWARE\nHowever, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.\nAlthough AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.\nLate last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.\nThe Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.\nAMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.\nA Survey of NVIDIA\nNVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.\nThe chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.\nSource:AMD Investor Presentation\nThe firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.\nGPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud\nAI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.\nARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.\nPerhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.\nUnfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.\nHead-To-Head Comparisons\nValuation Metrics\nThe following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author\nNext, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.\nChart by author\nNote that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.\nPerusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.\nCount me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.\nDo not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.\n=Advantage AMD\nAnalysts’ Price Targets\nNVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.\nAMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.\nIntel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.\nInvestors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.\n=Tie AMD/INTC\nGrowth Rates\nThe next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author\nWhile investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.\nAdvanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.\n=Advantage AMD\nI considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.\nI often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.\nDebt Metrics\nNVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.\nAMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.\nIntel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.\nAll three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.\nR&D Budgets\nThis is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.\nLast fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.\nAMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.\nI should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.\n=Advantage INTC\nBottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?\nTo arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.\nBecause ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.\nThe degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.\nA development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.\nOn the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.\nWhile AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.\nHowever, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.\nWith that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.\nI also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.\nI rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.\nFor additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/830140823"}
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