ZOANMAN
2021-08-16
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Uber: Buy The Dip, The Bullish Opportunity Has Never Been Clearer<blockquote>Uber：逢低买入，看涨机会从未如此清晰</blockquote>
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Investors have soured on Uber year-to-date, sending the stock down nearly 20%: in spite of very positive reopening news that has lifted Uber's rideshare bookings. Even better, the company is noting that delivery (UberEats) bookings have held strong, indicating that delivery may have become a more permanent fixture of our daily routines that won't fade post-pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>今年，某些被认为是明显“重开戏”的股票的股价表现有点离奇，除了Uber（UBER）之外，没有哪家公司的这一点表现得更明显。今年迄今为止，投资者对Uber感到不满，导致该股下跌近20%：尽管非常积极的重新开放消息提振了Uber的拼车预订量。更好的是，该公司指出，送货（UberEats）预订量保持强劲，这表明送货可能已经成为我们日常生活中更永久的固定装置，在大流行后不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> Losses in Uber picked up steam after the company reported Q2 results in early August. Bookings and revenue topped expectations, but Uber has been stepping up driver bonuses in order to be the most available rideshare app amid this summer's reopening. That strategy hurt the company's overall profitability this quarter, but in my view, recovering rider trends are a far more important accomplishment. To me, this is a very buyable dip in Uber.</p><p><blockquote>在Uber于8月初公布第二季度业绩后，该公司的亏损加剧。预订量和收入超出预期，但Uber一直在提高司机奖金，以便在今年夏天重新开放时成为最可用的拼车应用程序。这一策略损害了公司本季度的整体盈利能力，但在我看来，恢复骑手趋势是一项更重要的成就。对我来说，这是Uber非常值得买入的一次下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082ef941a10c159b2dae46bacb497c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis in Uber</b></p><p><blockquote><b>优步的看涨论点</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors often have such a short-term focus: Uber's recent dip was all about the losses it incurred in a single quarter, driven by a temporary factor (a step-up in driver incentives). In my view, patient investors should take this opportunity to review the long-term bullish thesis for Uber:</p><p><blockquote>投资者往往有这样一个短期关注点：Uber最近的下跌完全是由一个暂时因素（司机激励措施的加强）推动的单季度亏损。在我看来，耐心的投资者应该借此机会回顾一下Uber的长期看涨论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Huge $13.8 trillion TAM.</b>Mobility and Delivery each carry $5 trillion market opportunities, and nascent Uber Freight is another massive $3.8 trillion market that is heavily underserved and ripe for tech disruption.</li> <li><b>Formidable marketleadership.</b>In most of the markets that Uber operates in, the company has a leading market share, and usually by a substantial margin. The company has selectively exited markets where it lost share to a local incumbent (Grab in Singapore is a good example), so it can focus on turf where it has the advantage.</li> <li><b>The sharing economy is gradually taking precedence over ownership.</b>In 2021, a semiconductor shortage has dramatically increased the price of cars, both used and new. Even before this price shock and pre-pandemic, many consumers were already questioning the wisdom of car ownership over rideshare. Owning a car comes with maintenance costs, insurance costs, and in urban areas, often hefty parking costs. Gradually, I expect car ownership to decline and for rideshare to become the preeminent form of transportation.</li> <li><b>\"Other bets\"are numerous.</b>Uber Freight is the best example of a new initiative to drive growth, but grocery and package delivery are others as well. Uber's focus on anything involving mobility gives it a massive greenfield market to operate in.</li> </ul> Rideshare's cost spike is temporary; look ahead to adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>高达13.8万亿美元的TAM。</b>移动和交付各带来5万亿美元的市场机会，而新生的优步货运是另一个3.8万亿美元的巨大市场，该市场服务严重不足，技术颠覆的时机已经成熟。</li><li><b>强大的市场领导力。</b>在优步运营的大多数市场中，该公司都拥有领先的市场份额，而且通常是大幅领先。该公司有选择地退出了份额被当地现有企业夺走的市场（新加坡的Grab就是一个很好的例子），因此它可以专注于自己有优势的地盘。</li><li><b>共享经济逐渐优先于所有权。</b>2021年，半导体短缺大幅提高了二手车和新车的价格。甚至在这次价格冲击和大流行之前，许多消费者就已经在质疑拥有汽车而不是拼车是否明智。拥有一辆汽车伴随着维护成本、保险费用，在城市地区，通常还有高昂的停车费。渐渐地，我预计汽车拥有量会下降，拼车将成为最主要的交通方式。</li><li><b>“其他赌注”数不胜数。</b>优步货运是推动增长的新举措的最好例子，但杂货和包裹递送也是其他例子。优步对任何涉及移动出行的事物的关注为其提供了一个巨大的绿地市场。</li></ul>拼车的成本飙升是暂时的；展望第四季度调整后EBITDA盈利能力</blockquote></p><p> Let's now discuss the biggest issue that plagued sentiment for Uber exiting Q2. The important context to set behind this discussion is that Uber's gross bookings have never been stronger. Gross bookings across both mobility and delivery in July were up 45% versus 2019, having recovered in leaps and bounds from the depths of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们讨论一下困扰Uber退出第二季度情绪的最大问题。这场讨论背后的重要背景是，优步的总预订量从未如此强劲。与2019年相比，7月份移动和交付的总预订量增长了45%，从疫情的深渊中突飞猛进地恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Uber gross bookings trends</p><p><blockquote>图1。Uber总预订量趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805a3bdea024c0302a037822a637b8f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So it makes sense that Uber wants to invest dramatically to bring drivers back onto the platform and improve availability. Consumers view rideshare as more or less a uniform service: given roughly equivalent prices, a user will likely use the rideshare app that offers the lowest wait times.</p><p><blockquote>因此，优步希望大力投资将司机带回平台并提高可用性是有道理的。消费者认为拼车或多或少是一种统一的服务：给定大致相同的价格，用户可能会使用等待时间最短的拼车应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the number of drivers on the Uber platform has spiked 50% since February, and over the same time period, wait times have also improved across a number of major urban markets, especially dense urban centers like Miami and Atlanta.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，自2月份以来，Uber平台上的司机数量激增了50%，在同一时期，许多主要城市市场的等待时间也有所改善，尤其是迈阿密和亚特兰大等人口稠密的城市中心。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Uber driver and wait time statistics</p><p><blockquote>图2。Uber司机和等待时间统计</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c7bb069aba3ce11e084fc458a0594\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is Uber's opportunity to showcase its size advantage over Lyft(NASDAQ:LYFT). If Uber can consistently show better wait times and availability in these markets than its competitors, customers may eventually stop checking competitor applications and rely exclusively on Uber.</p><p><blockquote>这是Uber展示其相对于Lyft（纳斯达克：Lyft）规模优势的机会。如果优步能够在这些市场持续表现出比竞争对手更好的等待时间和可用性，客户最终可能会停止检查竞争对手的应用程序，而完全依赖优步。</blockquote></p><p> To me, I'm more than happy to sacrifice one or two quarters of adjusted EBITDA profits in order to achieve the right capacity to handle post-reopening rideshare demand. Uber's -$509 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 wasn't that bad (it's the best Q2 in two years, in fact, and a slimmer loss even compared to Q2'19 at -$656 million):</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，我非常乐意牺牲一两个季度的调整后EBITDA利润，以获得适当的能力来处理重新开放后的拼车需求。Uber第二季度调整后EBITDA为-5.09亿美元，并没有那么糟糕（事实上，这是两年来最好的第二季度，甚至与19年第二季度的-6.56亿美元相比，亏损也更小）：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Uber adjusted EBITDA trends</p><p><blockquote>图3.Uber调整后EBITDA趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d00355ad6418c2949cdd78af6836b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The big long-term driver here of course is Delivery's increased economies of scale. The Delivery segment has reached a -$161 million adjusted EBITDA profile, representing a near-breakeven -8.2% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2: which is substantially improved versus a -$232 million loss (-26.2% margin) in the year-ago Q2.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这里最大的长期驱动力是交付规模经济的增加。交付部门的调整后EBITDA已达到-1.61亿美元，第二季度调整后EBITDA利润率接近盈亏平衡-8.2%：与去年同期的-2.32亿美元亏损（-26.2%利润率）相比有了大幅改善第二季度。</blockquote></p><p> Uber also notes that its Uber Pass program, a $25/month membership that gives riders a 10-15% discount on rides, no delivery fees, and a 5% discount on restaurant orders, has been picking up steam and now represents about a third of its delivery customers. The increase in frequent ridership driven by this program will also help Uber to scale all of its lines of business. Per CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>优步还指出，其优步通行证计划（每月25美元的会员资格）一直在加速发展，目前约占其送货客户的三分之一。该计划推动的频繁乘客数量的增加也将有助于优步扩大其所有业务线的规模。根据首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨西(Dara Khosrowshahi)在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话：</blockquote></p><p> Just a year ago we began to roll out Uber Pass in earnest. It now drives 30% of Delivery GBs in the US, and roughly 25% globally. Consumers who regularly engage with both Mobility and Delivery now account for nearly half of our total company Gross Bookings. For these consumers in particular, Pass is a no-brainer, and we see a long runway for increased adoption. We're also seeing the benefits of cross-platform synergies for merchants and other businesses. Uber remains the largest global on-demand delivery platform outside of China, with more than 750,000 monthly active merchants on our platform. And our leadership position continues to grow. We are now the category leader in 8 of our top 10 Delivery markets, with clear number two positions in the US and UK.\" Uber is expecting adjusted EBITDA losses to slim down to \"$100 million or better\" by Q3, as shown in the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>就在一年前，我们开始认真推出优步通行证。目前，它驱动着美国30%的交付GBs，全球约25%。经常参与移动和交付的消费者现在占我们公司总预订量的近一半。特别是对于这些消费者来说，Pass是显而易见的，我们看到了增加采用的漫长道路。我们还看到了跨平台协同效应为商家和其他企业带来的好处。优步仍然是中国以外最大的全球按需配送平台，我们平台上的月活跃商户超过75万家。我们的领导地位不断增强。我们现在是十大配送市场中8个市场的类别领导者，在美国和英国明显位居第二。”Uber预计到第三季度调整后EBITDA亏损将缩减至“1亿美元或更高”，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Uber forward-looking adjusted EBITDA guidance</p><p><blockquote>图4.Uber前瞻性调整后EBITDA指引</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c1cba8d64af585450ddae1e15ec4f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The improvement will be driven by both continued synergies/economies of scale on the delivery side, plus a slowdown in driver incentives (the company has already achieved tremendous growth in its driver base, and so the driver stimulus it implemented in Q2 will gradually phase out).</p><p><blockquote>这一改善将受到交付方面持续的协同效应/规模经济以及司机激励措施放缓的推动（该公司已经实现了司机基础的巨大增长，因此其在第二季度实施的司机激励措施将逐步淘汰）。</blockquote></p><p> Even better, Uber expects to hit consolidated profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis by Q4, which is what the company originally committed at the start of the year: to reach adjusted EBITDA profitability at a quarterly level at least by the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>更好的是，Uber预计到第四季度将实现调整后EBITDA基础上的综合盈利能力，这也是该公司最初在年初承诺的：至少到2021年底达到季度水平的调整后EBITDA盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Uber has become one of the most globally-recognized consumer brands, and it's one that is emerging from the pandemic as a stronger company. A dramatically expanded delivery business and delivery margins, a strong recovery in rideshare bookings, and new growth opportunities in grocery and freight are just a few reasons investors should retain their confidence in Uber. Buy the dip here.</p><p><blockquote>Uber已成为全球最受认可的消费品牌之一，并且是一家从疫情中崛起的更强大的公司。送货业务和送货利润率的大幅扩张、拼车预订的强劲复苏以及杂货和货运的新增长机会只是投资者应该对Uber保持信心的几个原因。在这里逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber: Buy The Dip, The Bullish Opportunity Has Never Been Clearer<blockquote>Uber：逢低买入，看涨机会从未如此清晰</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber: Buy The Dip, The Bullish Opportunity Has Never Been Clearer<blockquote>Uber：逢低买入，看涨机会从未如此清晰</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 09:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Uber extended YTD losses after reporting Q2 results, owing to a higher-than-expected adjusted EBITDA loss.</li> <li>Uber has been raising driver incentives in order to increase available drivers in preparation for the summer's reopening.</li> <li>Rideshare bookings have dramatically rebounded, positioning Uber well for recovery.</li> <li>Short-term profitability hits should be ignored, given Uber's long-term market opportunity is still dramatically larger than where it stands today.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264f12006f44a0183231357537f4d996\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NYCstock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于调整后EBITDA亏损高于预期，优步股价在公布第二季度业绩后扩大了年初至今的亏损。</li><li>优步一直在提高司机激励措施，以增加可用司机，为夏季重新开放做准备。</li><li>拼车预订量大幅反弹，为Uber的复苏奠定了良好的基础。</li><li>鉴于Uber的长期市场机会仍然比目前大得多，短期盈利能力受到的打击应该被忽略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NYCstock/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This year, the share price behavior of certain stocks that are thought to be obvious \"reopening plays\" has been a bit bizarre, and in no company other than Uber (UBER) is this more evident. Investors have soured on Uber year-to-date, sending the stock down nearly 20%: in spite of very positive reopening news that has lifted Uber's rideshare bookings. Even better, the company is noting that delivery (UberEats) bookings have held strong, indicating that delivery may have become a more permanent fixture of our daily routines that won't fade post-pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>今年，某些被认为是明显“重开戏”的股票的股价表现有点离奇，除了Uber（UBER）之外，没有哪家公司的这一点表现得更明显。今年迄今为止，投资者对Uber感到不满，导致该股下跌近20%：尽管非常积极的重新开放消息提振了Uber的拼车预订量。更好的是，该公司指出，送货（UberEats）预订量保持强劲，这表明送货可能已经成为我们日常生活中更永久的固定装置，在大流行后不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> Losses in Uber picked up steam after the company reported Q2 results in early August. Bookings and revenue topped expectations, but Uber has been stepping up driver bonuses in order to be the most available rideshare app amid this summer's reopening. That strategy hurt the company's overall profitability this quarter, but in my view, recovering rider trends are a far more important accomplishment. To me, this is a very buyable dip in Uber.</p><p><blockquote>在Uber于8月初公布第二季度业绩后，该公司的亏损加剧。预订量和收入超出预期，但Uber一直在提高司机奖金，以便在今年夏天重新开放时成为最可用的拼车应用程序。这一策略损害了公司本季度的整体盈利能力，但在我看来，恢复骑手趋势是一项更重要的成就。对我来说，这是Uber非常值得买入的一次下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082ef941a10c159b2dae46bacb497c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis in Uber</b></p><p><blockquote><b>优步的看涨论点</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors often have such a short-term focus: Uber's recent dip was all about the losses it incurred in a single quarter, driven by a temporary factor (a step-up in driver incentives). In my view, patient investors should take this opportunity to review the long-term bullish thesis for Uber:</p><p><blockquote>投资者往往有这样一个短期关注点：Uber最近的下跌完全是由一个暂时因素（司机激励措施的加强）推动的单季度亏损。在我看来，耐心的投资者应该借此机会回顾一下Uber的长期看涨论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Huge $13.8 trillion TAM.</b>Mobility and Delivery each carry $5 trillion market opportunities, and nascent Uber Freight is another massive $3.8 trillion market that is heavily underserved and ripe for tech disruption.</li> <li><b>Formidable marketleadership.</b>In most of the markets that Uber operates in, the company has a leading market share, and usually by a substantial margin. The company has selectively exited markets where it lost share to a local incumbent (Grab in Singapore is a good example), so it can focus on turf where it has the advantage.</li> <li><b>The sharing economy is gradually taking precedence over ownership.</b>In 2021, a semiconductor shortage has dramatically increased the price of cars, both used and new. Even before this price shock and pre-pandemic, many consumers were already questioning the wisdom of car ownership over rideshare. Owning a car comes with maintenance costs, insurance costs, and in urban areas, often hefty parking costs. Gradually, I expect car ownership to decline and for rideshare to become the preeminent form of transportation.</li> <li><b>\"Other bets\"are numerous.</b>Uber Freight is the best example of a new initiative to drive growth, but grocery and package delivery are others as well. Uber's focus on anything involving mobility gives it a massive greenfield market to operate in.</li> </ul> Rideshare's cost spike is temporary; look ahead to adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>高达13.8万亿美元的TAM。</b>移动和交付各带来5万亿美元的市场机会，而新生的优步货运是另一个3.8万亿美元的巨大市场，该市场服务严重不足，技术颠覆的时机已经成熟。</li><li><b>强大的市场领导力。</b>在优步运营的大多数市场中，该公司都拥有领先的市场份额，而且通常是大幅领先。该公司有选择地退出了份额被当地现有企业夺走的市场（新加坡的Grab就是一个很好的例子），因此它可以专注于自己有优势的地盘。</li><li><b>共享经济逐渐优先于所有权。</b>2021年，半导体短缺大幅提高了二手车和新车的价格。甚至在这次价格冲击和大流行之前，许多消费者就已经在质疑拥有汽车而不是拼车是否明智。拥有一辆汽车伴随着维护成本、保险费用，在城市地区，通常还有高昂的停车费。渐渐地，我预计汽车拥有量会下降，拼车将成为最主要的交通方式。</li><li><b>“其他赌注”数不胜数。</b>优步货运是推动增长的新举措的最好例子，但杂货和包裹递送也是其他例子。优步对任何涉及移动出行的事物的关注为其提供了一个巨大的绿地市场。</li></ul>拼车的成本飙升是暂时的；展望第四季度调整后EBITDA盈利能力</blockquote></p><p> Let's now discuss the biggest issue that plagued sentiment for Uber exiting Q2. The important context to set behind this discussion is that Uber's gross bookings have never been stronger. Gross bookings across both mobility and delivery in July were up 45% versus 2019, having recovered in leaps and bounds from the depths of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们讨论一下困扰Uber退出第二季度情绪的最大问题。这场讨论背后的重要背景是，优步的总预订量从未如此强劲。与2019年相比，7月份移动和交付的总预订量增长了45%，从疫情的深渊中突飞猛进地恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Uber gross bookings trends</p><p><blockquote>图1。Uber总预订量趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805a3bdea024c0302a037822a637b8f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So it makes sense that Uber wants to invest dramatically to bring drivers back onto the platform and improve availability. Consumers view rideshare as more or less a uniform service: given roughly equivalent prices, a user will likely use the rideshare app that offers the lowest wait times.</p><p><blockquote>因此，优步希望大力投资将司机带回平台并提高可用性是有道理的。消费者认为拼车或多或少是一种统一的服务：给定大致相同的价格，用户可能会使用等待时间最短的拼车应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the number of drivers on the Uber platform has spiked 50% since February, and over the same time period, wait times have also improved across a number of major urban markets, especially dense urban centers like Miami and Atlanta.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，自2月份以来，Uber平台上的司机数量激增了50%，在同一时期，许多主要城市市场的等待时间也有所改善，尤其是迈阿密和亚特兰大等人口稠密的城市中心。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Uber driver and wait time statistics</p><p><blockquote>图2。Uber司机和等待时间统计</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c7bb069aba3ce11e084fc458a0594\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is Uber's opportunity to showcase its size advantage over Lyft(NASDAQ:LYFT). If Uber can consistently show better wait times and availability in these markets than its competitors, customers may eventually stop checking competitor applications and rely exclusively on Uber.</p><p><blockquote>这是Uber展示其相对于Lyft（纳斯达克：Lyft）规模优势的机会。如果优步能够在这些市场持续表现出比竞争对手更好的等待时间和可用性，客户最终可能会停止检查竞争对手的应用程序，而完全依赖优步。</blockquote></p><p> To me, I'm more than happy to sacrifice one or two quarters of adjusted EBITDA profits in order to achieve the right capacity to handle post-reopening rideshare demand. Uber's -$509 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 wasn't that bad (it's the best Q2 in two years, in fact, and a slimmer loss even compared to Q2'19 at -$656 million):</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，我非常乐意牺牲一两个季度的调整后EBITDA利润，以获得适当的能力来处理重新开放后的拼车需求。Uber第二季度调整后EBITDA为-5.09亿美元，并没有那么糟糕（事实上，这是两年来最好的第二季度，甚至与19年第二季度的-6.56亿美元相比，亏损也更小）：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Uber adjusted EBITDA trends</p><p><blockquote>图3.Uber调整后EBITDA趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d00355ad6418c2949cdd78af6836b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The big long-term driver here of course is Delivery's increased economies of scale. The Delivery segment has reached a -$161 million adjusted EBITDA profile, representing a near-breakeven -8.2% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2: which is substantially improved versus a -$232 million loss (-26.2% margin) in the year-ago Q2.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这里最大的长期驱动力是交付规模经济的增加。交付部门的调整后EBITDA已达到-1.61亿美元，第二季度调整后EBITDA利润率接近盈亏平衡-8.2%：与去年同期的-2.32亿美元亏损（-26.2%利润率）相比有了大幅改善第二季度。</blockquote></p><p> Uber also notes that its Uber Pass program, a $25/month membership that gives riders a 10-15% discount on rides, no delivery fees, and a 5% discount on restaurant orders, has been picking up steam and now represents about a third of its delivery customers. The increase in frequent ridership driven by this program will also help Uber to scale all of its lines of business. Per CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>优步还指出，其优步通行证计划（每月25美元的会员资格）一直在加速发展，目前约占其送货客户的三分之一。该计划推动的频繁乘客数量的增加也将有助于优步扩大其所有业务线的规模。根据首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨西(Dara Khosrowshahi)在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话：</blockquote></p><p> Just a year ago we began to roll out Uber Pass in earnest. It now drives 30% of Delivery GBs in the US, and roughly 25% globally. Consumers who regularly engage with both Mobility and Delivery now account for nearly half of our total company Gross Bookings. For these consumers in particular, Pass is a no-brainer, and we see a long runway for increased adoption. We're also seeing the benefits of cross-platform synergies for merchants and other businesses. Uber remains the largest global on-demand delivery platform outside of China, with more than 750,000 monthly active merchants on our platform. And our leadership position continues to grow. We are now the category leader in 8 of our top 10 Delivery markets, with clear number two positions in the US and UK.\" Uber is expecting adjusted EBITDA losses to slim down to \"$100 million or better\" by Q3, as shown in the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>就在一年前，我们开始认真推出优步通行证。目前，它驱动着美国30%的交付GBs，全球约25%。经常参与移动和交付的消费者现在占我们公司总预订量的近一半。特别是对于这些消费者来说，Pass是显而易见的，我们看到了增加采用的漫长道路。我们还看到了跨平台协同效应为商家和其他企业带来的好处。优步仍然是中国以外最大的全球按需配送平台，我们平台上的月活跃商户超过75万家。我们的领导地位不断增强。我们现在是十大配送市场中8个市场的类别领导者，在美国和英国明显位居第二。”Uber预计到第三季度调整后EBITDA亏损将缩减至“1亿美元或更高”，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Uber forward-looking adjusted EBITDA guidance</p><p><blockquote>图4.Uber前瞻性调整后EBITDA指引</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c1cba8d64af585450ddae1e15ec4f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Uber Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Uber第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The improvement will be driven by both continued synergies/economies of scale on the delivery side, plus a slowdown in driver incentives (the company has already achieved tremendous growth in its driver base, and so the driver stimulus it implemented in Q2 will gradually phase out).</p><p><blockquote>这一改善将受到交付方面持续的协同效应/规模经济以及司机激励措施放缓的推动（该公司已经实现了司机基础的巨大增长，因此其在第二季度实施的司机激励措施将逐步淘汰）。</blockquote></p><p> Even better, Uber expects to hit consolidated profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis by Q4, which is what the company originally committed at the start of the year: to reach adjusted EBITDA profitability at a quarterly level at least by the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>更好的是，Uber预计到第四季度将实现调整后EBITDA基础上的综合盈利能力，这也是该公司最初在年初承诺的：至少到2021年底达到季度水平的调整后EBITDA盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Uber has become one of the most globally-recognized consumer brands, and it's one that is emerging from the pandemic as a stronger company. A dramatically expanded delivery business and delivery margins, a strong recovery in rideshare bookings, and new growth opportunities in grocery and freight are just a few reasons investors should retain their confidence in Uber. Buy the dip here.</p><p><blockquote>Uber已成为全球最受认可的消费品牌之一，并且是一家从疫情中崛起的更强大的公司。送货业务和送货利润率的大幅扩张、拼车预订的强劲复苏以及杂货和货运的新增长机会只是投资者应该对Uber保持信心的几个原因。在这里逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449536-uber-stock-buy-dip-bullish-opportunity\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449536-uber-stock-buy-dip-bullish-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184016266","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Uber extended YTD losses after reporting Q2 results, owing to a higher-than-expected adjusted EBITDA loss.\nUber has been raising driver incentives in order to increase available drivers in preparation for the summer's reopening.\nRideshare bookings have dramatically rebounded, positioning Uber well for recovery.\nShort-term profitability hits should be ignored, given Uber's long-term market opportunity is still dramatically larger than where it stands today.\n\nNYCstock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThis year, the share price behavior of certain stocks that are thought to be obvious \"reopening plays\" has been a bit bizarre, and in no company other than Uber (UBER) is this more evident. Investors have soured on Uber year-to-date, sending the stock down nearly 20%: in spite of very positive reopening news that has lifted Uber's rideshare bookings. Even better, the company is noting that delivery (UberEats) bookings have held strong, indicating that delivery may have become a more permanent fixture of our daily routines that won't fade post-pandemic.\nLosses in Uber picked up steam after the company reported Q2 results in early August. Bookings and revenue topped expectations, but Uber has been stepping up driver bonuses in order to be the most available rideshare app amid this summer's reopening. That strategy hurt the company's overall profitability this quarter, but in my view, recovering rider trends are a far more important accomplishment. To me, this is a very buyable dip in Uber.\nData by YCharts\nThe bullish thesis in Uber\nInvestors often have such a short-term focus: Uber's recent dip was all about the losses it incurred in a single quarter, driven by a temporary factor (a step-up in driver incentives). In my view, patient investors should take this opportunity to review the long-term bullish thesis for Uber:\n\nHuge $13.8 trillion TAM.Mobility and Delivery each carry $5 trillion market opportunities, and nascent Uber Freight is another massive $3.8 trillion market that is heavily underserved and ripe for tech disruption.\nFormidable marketleadership.In most of the markets that Uber operates in, the company has a leading market share, and usually by a substantial margin. The company has selectively exited markets where it lost share to a local incumbent (Grab in Singapore is a good example), so it can focus on turf where it has the advantage.\nThe sharing economy is gradually taking precedence over ownership.In 2021, a semiconductor shortage has dramatically increased the price of cars, both used and new. Even before this price shock and pre-pandemic, many consumers were already questioning the wisdom of car ownership over rideshare. Owning a car comes with maintenance costs, insurance costs, and in urban areas, often hefty parking costs. Gradually, I expect car ownership to decline and for rideshare to become the preeminent form of transportation.\n\"Other bets\"are numerous.Uber Freight is the best example of a new initiative to drive growth, but grocery and package delivery are others as well. Uber's focus on anything involving mobility gives it a massive greenfield market to operate in.\n\nRideshare's cost spike is temporary; look ahead to adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4\nLet's now discuss the biggest issue that plagued sentiment for Uber exiting Q2. The important context to set behind this discussion is that Uber's gross bookings have never been stronger. Gross bookings across both mobility and delivery in July were up 45% versus 2019, having recovered in leaps and bounds from the depths of the pandemic.\nFigure 1. Uber gross bookings trends\nSource: Uber Q2 investor presentation\nSo it makes sense that Uber wants to invest dramatically to bring drivers back onto the platform and improve availability. Consumers view rideshare as more or less a uniform service: given roughly equivalent prices, a user will likely use the rideshare app that offers the lowest wait times.\nAs shown in the chart below, the number of drivers on the Uber platform has spiked 50% since February, and over the same time period, wait times have also improved across a number of major urban markets, especially dense urban centers like Miami and Atlanta.\nFigure 2. Uber driver and wait time statistics\nSource: Uber Q2 investor presentation\nThis is Uber's opportunity to showcase its size advantage over Lyft(NASDAQ:LYFT). If Uber can consistently show better wait times and availability in these markets than its competitors, customers may eventually stop checking competitor applications and rely exclusively on Uber.\nTo me, I'm more than happy to sacrifice one or two quarters of adjusted EBITDA profits in order to achieve the right capacity to handle post-reopening rideshare demand. Uber's -$509 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 wasn't that bad (it's the best Q2 in two years, in fact, and a slimmer loss even compared to Q2'19 at -$656 million):\nFigure 3. Uber adjusted EBITDA trends\nSource: Uber Q2 investor presentation\nThe big long-term driver here of course is Delivery's increased economies of scale. The Delivery segment has reached a -$161 million adjusted EBITDA profile, representing a near-breakeven -8.2% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2: which is substantially improved versus a -$232 million loss (-26.2% margin) in the year-ago Q2.\nUber also notes that its Uber Pass program, a $25/month membership that gives riders a 10-15% discount on rides, no delivery fees, and a 5% discount on restaurant orders, has been picking up steam and now represents about a third of its delivery customers. The increase in frequent ridership driven by this program will also help Uber to scale all of its lines of business. Per CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Just a year ago we began to roll out Uber Pass in earnest. It now drives 30% of Delivery GBs in the US, and roughly 25% globally. Consumers who regularly engage with both Mobility and Delivery now account for nearly half of our total company Gross Bookings. For these consumers in particular, Pass is a no-brainer, and we see a long runway for increased adoption. We're also seeing the benefits of cross-platform synergies for merchants and other businesses. Uber remains the largest global on-demand delivery platform outside of China, with more than 750,000 monthly active merchants on our platform. And our leadership position continues to grow. We are now the category leader in 8 of our top 10 Delivery markets, with clear number two positions in the US and UK.\"\n\nUber is expecting adjusted EBITDA losses to slim down to \"$100 million or better\" by Q3, as shown in the chart below:\nFigure 4. Uber forward-looking adjusted EBITDA guidance\nSource: Uber Q2 investor presentation\nThe improvement will be driven by both continued synergies/economies of scale on the delivery side, plus a slowdown in driver incentives (the company has already achieved tremendous growth in its driver base, and so the driver stimulus it implemented in Q2 will gradually phase out).\nEven better, Uber expects to hit consolidated profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis by Q4, which is what the company originally committed at the start of the year: to reach adjusted EBITDA profitability at a quarterly level at least by the end of 2021.\nKey takeaways\nUber has become one of the most globally-recognized consumer brands, and it's one that is emerging from the pandemic as a stronger company. A dramatically expanded delivery business and delivery margins, a strong recovery in rideshare bookings, and new growth opportunities in grocery and freight are just a few reasons investors should retain their confidence in Uber. Buy the dip here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2948,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/830538756"}
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