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2021-08-18

Gotta be prepared

6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>

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What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;6-positive market months&nbsp;in a row. To wit:<blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了6-积极的市场月份排成一行。即：</blockquote> “An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp; As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns. “ <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)<blockquote>“另一个‘危险信号’是标普500已连续6个月获得正回报。如下图10年月图表所示，这样的条纹很少见，当它们真的出现时，它们通常会遇到一个月甚至更长时间的负收益。“（同样值得注意的是，当12个月RSI处于这种超买状态时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</blockquote> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.<blockquote>如前所述，在上面的图表中，我只回到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote> 6-Positive Market Months – Long Term<blockquote>6-积极的市场月份-长期</blockquote> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.<blockquote>利用罗伯特·希勒博士的长期名义股票市场数据，我计算了每月的正回报，然后突出显示了6个月或更长时间的正市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.<blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote> <ol> <li>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</li> <li>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</li> <li>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.<blockquote><ol><li>所有连续表演的时期最终都会结束。（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期牛市期间往往会忘记这一点。）</li><li>鉴于极长的市场历史，如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</li><li>这样的表演期经常，但不总是，在相当不错的市场调整或熊市之前。</li></ol>下表显示了连续2个月或以上正回报的所有时期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.<blockquote>该表显示，在近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后是至少一个月的消极表现。23%的时间出现连续三个阳性月，只有14%的时间持续到4个月。</blockquote> Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.<blockquote>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次6个月或更长时间的正回报。总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或更长时间的周期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有调整。</blockquote> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.<blockquote>然而，在每个时期，这种运行都以至少一个负回报月结束，但绝大多数都以更深的调整结束。</blockquote> This Time Is Different<blockquote>这次不一样</blockquote> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;“bullish bias”&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”<blockquote>目前，不存在对“风险”在金融市场作为“看涨偏见”仍然不受约束。由于美联储仍每月动用1200亿美元的流动性，投资者了解到“殴打将继续下去，直到士气好转。”</blockquote> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?<blockquote>市场上涨当然有可能继续有增无减，进入历史上最长的时期之一。唯一的问题是什么时候结束，回调幅度有多大？</blockquote> What will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;“price”that&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;gets reduced.<blockquote>什么会导致修正不得而知？原因在于，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者“价格”那个“风险”进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格会迅速下跌“风险”减少。</blockquote> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;“shutdown”&nbsp;of the economy.<blockquote>这就是为什么市场在2020年2月的“疫情”面前表现得相当好。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的“外生”事件是完整的“关机”经济的增长。</blockquote> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.<blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者纷纷“退出”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote> Size Of The Correction<blockquote>修正的大小</blockquote> The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.<blockquote>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</blockquote> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.<blockquote>目前，市场极度偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线上方。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，通常会导致20%或更多的修正。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”<blockquote>正如我们在“过去的表现并不能保证。”</blockquote> “This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.” There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.<blockquote>“这也是投资者应该关注他们所承担的‘风险’的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延伸、偏离和看涨。”历史上只有6次市场同时如此长期、看涨和超买。这些时期中的每一个都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;“mean-reverting”&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.<blockquote>重要的是，72个月移动平均线自1925年以来一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反该移动平均线的情况很少见，并且仅发生在“均值回复”熊市。目前，修正72个月移动平均线需要下跌36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;“bullish sentiment.”&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.<blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能“看涨情绪。”然而，在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前，同样的情绪比比皆是。</blockquote> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.<blockquote>鉴于与长期均值的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote> Into The Belly Of The Beast<blockquote>进入野兽的肚子</blockquote> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.<blockquote>目前市场定价为完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的情况。</blockquote> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.<blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望，而此时许多层面的估值仍然过高。</blockquote> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.<blockquote>由于各种原因，八月和九月的市场表现历来疲软。然而，鉴于市场已经出现了6个积极的月份，回调的风险已经明显上升。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering”&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook”&nbsp;markets.<blockquote>新总统的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储潜在讨论“逐渐变细”资产购买，以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要做“幽灵”市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.<blockquote>关键是“风险”修正的幅度现在提高了。</blockquote> What This Means And Doesn’t Mean<blockquote>这意味着什么和不意味着什么</blockquote> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.<blockquote>让我重复以下内容，以免混淆。</blockquote> “What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’” As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;by&nbsp;“tweaking”&nbsp;things over time.<blockquote>“这种分析并不意味着你应该‘卖掉一切’和‘藏在现金里’。”一如既往，长期投资组合管理是关于管理“风险”由“调整”随着时间的推移。</blockquote> If you have a&nbsp;“so so”&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.<blockquote>如果你有“马马虎虎”在牌桌上，你可以少下注或弃牌。</blockquote> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.<blockquote>这并不意味着你站起来完全离开桌子。</blockquote> What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.<blockquote>这一分析最支持的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</blockquote> <ol> <li>Trim Winning Positions&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)<blockquote><ol><li>修剪获胜位置回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.<blockquote><li>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。如果它们在反弹期间没有与市场一起反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会下跌更多。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up&nbsp;to new levels.<blockquote><li>向上移动跟踪止损达到新的水平。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.<blockquote><li>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> Could I be wrong?&nbsp;Absolutely.<blockquote>我会错吗？绝对的。</blockquote> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?<blockquote>但是，如果这些指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote> What’s worse:<blockquote>更糟的是：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;<blockquote><ol><li>暂时错过长期进步的初始阶段，或者；</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.<blockquote><li>花时间恢复平衡，这和赚钱不一样。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on&nbsp;trading rules:<blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的交易规则：</blockquote> “ Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.” &nbsp;– Todd Harrison <blockquote>“弥补机会比损失资本容易得多。” –托德·哈里森</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... 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What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-18 14:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;6-positive market months&nbsp;in a row. To wit:<blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了6-积极的市场月份排成一行。即：</blockquote> “An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp; As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns. “ <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)<blockquote>“另一个‘危险信号’是标普500已连续6个月获得正回报。如下图10年月图表所示，这样的条纹很少见，当它们真的出现时，它们通常会遇到一个月甚至更长时间的负收益。“（同样值得注意的是，当12个月RSI处于这种超买状态时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</blockquote> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.<blockquote>如前所述，在上面的图表中，我只回到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote> 6-Positive Market Months – Long Term<blockquote>6-积极的市场月份-长期</blockquote> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.<blockquote>利用罗伯特·希勒博士的长期名义股票市场数据，我计算了每月的正回报，然后突出显示了6个月或更长时间的正市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.<blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote> <ol> <li>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</li> <li>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</li> <li>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.<blockquote><ol><li>所有连续表演的时期最终都会结束。（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期牛市期间往往会忘记这一点。）</li><li>鉴于极长的市场历史，如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</li><li>这样的表演期经常，但不总是，在相当不错的市场调整或熊市之前。</li></ol>下表显示了连续2个月或以上正回报的所有时期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.<blockquote>该表显示，在近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后是至少一个月的消极表现。23%的时间出现连续三个阳性月，只有14%的时间持续到4个月。</blockquote> Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.<blockquote>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次6个月或更长时间的正回报。总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或更长时间的周期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有调整。</blockquote> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.<blockquote>然而，在每个时期，这种运行都以至少一个负回报月结束，但绝大多数都以更深的调整结束。</blockquote> This Time Is Different<blockquote>这次不一样</blockquote> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;“bullish bias”&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”<blockquote>目前，不存在对“风险”在金融市场作为“看涨偏见”仍然不受约束。由于美联储仍每月动用1200亿美元的流动性，投资者了解到“殴打将继续下去，直到士气好转。”</blockquote> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?<blockquote>市场上涨当然有可能继续有增无减，进入历史上最长的时期之一。唯一的问题是什么时候结束，回调幅度有多大？</blockquote> What will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;“price”that&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;gets reduced.<blockquote>什么会导致修正不得而知？原因在于，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者“价格”那个“风险”进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格会迅速下跌“风险”减少。</blockquote> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;“shutdown”&nbsp;of the economy.<blockquote>这就是为什么市场在2020年2月的“疫情”面前表现得相当好。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的“外生”事件是完整的“关机”经济的增长。</blockquote> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.<blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者纷纷“退出”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote> Size Of The Correction<blockquote>修正的大小</blockquote> The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.<blockquote>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</blockquote> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.<blockquote>目前，市场极度偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线上方。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，通常会导致20%或更多的修正。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”<blockquote>正如我们在“过去的表现并不能保证。”</blockquote> “This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.” There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.<blockquote>“这也是投资者应该关注他们所承担的‘风险’的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延伸、偏离和看涨。”历史上只有6次市场同时如此长期、看涨和超买。这些时期中的每一个都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;“mean-reverting”&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.<blockquote>重要的是，72个月移动平均线自1925年以来一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反该移动平均线的情况很少见，并且仅发生在“均值回复”熊市。目前，修正72个月移动平均线需要下跌36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;“bullish sentiment.”&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.<blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能“看涨情绪。”然而，在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前，同样的情绪比比皆是。</blockquote> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.<blockquote>鉴于与长期均值的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote> Into The Belly Of The Beast<blockquote>进入野兽的肚子</blockquote> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.<blockquote>目前市场定价为完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的情况。</blockquote> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.<blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望，而此时许多层面的估值仍然过高。</blockquote> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.<blockquote>由于各种原因，八月和九月的市场表现历来疲软。然而，鉴于市场已经出现了6个积极的月份，回调的风险已经明显上升。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering”&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook”&nbsp;markets.<blockquote>新总统的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储潜在讨论“逐渐变细”资产购买，以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要做“幽灵”市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.<blockquote>关键是“风险”修正的幅度现在提高了。</blockquote> What This Means And Doesn’t Mean<blockquote>这意味着什么和不意味着什么</blockquote> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.<blockquote>让我重复以下内容，以免混淆。</blockquote> “What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’” As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;“risk”&nbsp;by&nbsp;“tweaking”&nbsp;things over time.<blockquote>“这种分析并不意味着你应该‘卖掉一切’和‘藏在现金里’。”一如既往，长期投资组合管理是关于管理“风险”由“调整”随着时间的推移。</blockquote> If you have a&nbsp;“so so”&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.<blockquote>如果你有“马马虎虎”在牌桌上，你可以少下注或弃牌。</blockquote> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.<blockquote>这并不意味着你站起来完全离开桌子。</blockquote> What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.<blockquote>这一分析最支持的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</blockquote> <ol> <li>Trim Winning Positions&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)<blockquote><ol><li>修剪获胜位置回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.<blockquote><li>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。如果它们在反弹期间没有与市场一起反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会下跌更多。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up&nbsp;to new levels.<blockquote><li>向上移动跟踪止损达到新的水平。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.<blockquote><li>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> Could I be wrong?&nbsp;Absolutely.<blockquote>我会错吗？绝对的。</blockquote> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?<blockquote>但是，如果这些指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote> What’s worse:<blockquote>更糟的是：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;<blockquote><ol><li>暂时错过长期进步的初始阶段，或者；</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.<blockquote><li>花时间恢复平衡，这和赚钱不一样。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on&nbsp;trading rules:<blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的交易规则：</blockquote> “ Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.” &nbsp;– Todd Harrison <blockquote>“弥补机会比损失资本容易得多。” –托德·哈里森</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831004442"}