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2021-08-18

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Labor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的转折点。一位策略师认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote>

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Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的转折点。一位策略师认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113394526","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Critical information for the trading day.\n\nSummertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week,","content":" Critical information for the trading day. Summertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week, for example, the top two sectors were the classically defensive utilities, and the highly cyclical materials. The total market volume on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq on Tuesday was 59% below the peak of the year, and 19% below the year’s average.<blockquote>交易日的关键信息。夏季市场可能有点功能失调。例如，上周排名靠前的两个行业是典型的防御性公用事业和高度周期性的材料。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克周二的市场总成交量较年内峰值低59%，较年内平均水平低19%。</blockquote> Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, points out the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after Labor Day, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close. “We believe as the chase for the end of the year begins, a renewed value/cyclical outperformance is likely along with higher 10-year Treasury yields, but like it has been for the past 18 months and will be for the foreseeable future, the virus is the boss,” he says.<blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)机构股票策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)指出，过去两年，劳动节之后股市出现了很大的价值和周期性偏差，而2018年，夏季结束后市场基本崩溃。“我们相信，随着年底追逐的开始，价值/周期性表现可能会随着10年期国债收益率的上升而重新出现，但就像过去18个月和可预见的未来一样，病毒是老板，”他说。</blockquote> The 10-year, he says, is the linchpin to the whole market. Quantitative easing, bank liquidity, Treasury gamesmanship and delta variant fear should all fade in the second half, allowing yields to rise up to a reasonable level. That in turn will get the yield curve steepening, helping value stocks, small-caps and cyclicals — which have a long way to go, given the summer reversal in markets.<blockquote>他说，10年是整个市场的关键。量化宽松、银行流动性、财政部的小动作和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧都应该会在下半年消退，从而使收益率升至合理水平。这反过来将使收益率曲线变陡，帮助价值股、小盘股和周期性股票——考虑到夏季市场的逆转，这些股票还有很长的路要走。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045d6c5307b933cc3b0fc0494b418f15\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Another point he makes is there is no income or spending cliff. By the end of 2021, personal income will be about $1.2 trillion higher than the fourth quarter of 2019 — or put another way, almost exactly in line with the 4% annual average between 2010 and 2019. Since so much of the stimulus was saved, consumer spending should still grow, and an infrastructure stimulus would be a net positive.<blockquote>他提出的另一点是，不存在收入或支出悬崖。到2021年底，个人收入将比2019年第四季度高出约1.2万亿美元——或者换句话说，几乎完全符合2010年至2019年间4%的年平均水平。由于如此多的刺激措施被节省下来，消费者支出应该仍会增长，而基础设施刺激措施将是一个净利好。</blockquote> Another huge tailwind, he says, is that financial obligations as a percent of disposable income are near 40-year lows. “Consumers have dry powder to spend, for a long, long time even with incomes returning to trend line,” says McCourt. Public company leverage also is down — on a next 12 month basis, net debt-to-Ebitda of S&amp;P 500 companies has dropped to 1.07 in July from a peak of 1.55, and 1.28 in December 2019. Inventories, he adds, are “horribly low,” which while depressing this year’s economic output will lead to restocking demand over the next two years.<blockquote>他说，另一个巨大的推动力是金融债务占可支配收入的百分比接近40年来的低点。麦考特说：“即使收入恢复到趋势线，消费者也可以在很长很长一段时间内消费干粉。”上市公司杠杆率也在下降——在未来12个月的基础上，标普500公司的净债务与Ebitda之比已从峰值1.55降至7月份的1.07，2019年12月为1.28。他补充说，库存“低得可怕”，这在抑制今年经济产出的同时，将导致未来两年需求的补充。</blockquote> For the “de-urbanization theme,” McCourt’s stock picks are Lennar LEN,&nbsp;American Homes 4 Rent AMH,&nbsp;Eagle Materials EXP, KB Home&nbsp;KBH and MDC Holdings MDC.&nbsp;For “discounted valuation and improving return on equity,” he likes AutoZone AZO,&nbsp;Old Republic International ORI, Jabil JBL,&nbsp;Triumph Bancorp TBK and Meta Financial Group CASH.<blockquote>对于“去城市化主题”，麦考特的股票选择是Lennar LEN、American Homes 4 Rent AMH、Eagle Materials EXP、KB Home KBH和MDC Holdings MDC。对于“估值折扣和提高股本回报率”，他喜欢AutoZone AZO、Old Republic International ORI、Jabil JBL、Triumph Bancorp TBK和Meta Financial Group CASH。</blockquote> For “economic reopening beneficiaries,” he likes National Retail Properties NNN,&nbsp;Bloomin Brands BLMN and Mohawk Industries MHK, and for infrastructure beneficiaries, he likes Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA and Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY.<blockquote>对于“经济重新开放受益者”，他喜欢NNN国家零售地产、Bloomin Brands BLMN和Mohawk Industries MHK；对于基础设施受益者，他喜欢Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA和Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d103548f1c9d2c78cdff2912add8d2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The one major risk he sees is inflation. During the late 1940s and late 1960s, short-term inflation caused 20% pullbacks, followed by inflation-adjusted returns of about zero over the next five years. In both periods, stronger than typical earnings per share growth was offset by price-to-earnings contraction, he notes.<blockquote>他认为的一个主要风险是通货膨胀。在20世纪40年代末和60年代末，短期通胀导致了20%的回调，随后五年通胀调整后的回报率约为零。他指出，在这两个时期，每股收益强劲的增长都被市盈率收缩所抵消。</blockquote> Fed minutes on tap<blockquote>美联储会议纪要随时准备</blockquote> Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve interest-rate setting committee are due for release at 2 p.m. Eastern, with much of the suspense about the central bank’s direction taken away by earlier stories this week from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that both pointed to imminent announcements that the bond-buying program will be phased out.<blockquote>最近一次美联储利率制定委员会的会议纪要将于下午2点发布。《华尔街日报》和彭博新闻本周早些时候的报道消除了有关央行方向的大部分悬念，这两篇报道都指出即将宣布将逐步取消债券购买计划。</blockquote> “In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors首席美国经济学家Tim Duy表示：“简而言之，在这一点上，美联储只是在制定细节。除非经济发生一些戏剧性的变化，否则缩减资产购买将在未来几个月开始，并在明年年中结束。”</blockquote> Housing starts slumped 7% in July, coming in below economist estimates.<blockquote>7月份新屋开工率下降7%，低于经济学家的预期。</blockquote> Home-improvement chain Lowe’s LOW beat earnings estimates and reported a surprise increase in sales. Discounter Target TGT reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue, as it authorized a new $15 billion stock buyback plan.<blockquote>家居装修连锁店劳氏(Lowe's LOW)的盈利超出预期，并报告销售额意外增长。折扣公司Target TGT公布的盈利和收入超出预期，并批准了一项新的150亿美元股票回购计划。</blockquote> Networking giant Cisco Systems CSCO and graphics chip maker Nvidia NVDA report results after the close.<blockquote>网络巨头思科系统CSCO和图形芯片制造商英伟达NVDA在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote> The markets<blockquote>市场</blockquote> Stock futures ES00 NQ00 were looking a little weaker, following the 282-point downturn in the Dow industrials DJIA&nbsp;on Tuesday that ended a five-session winning run. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 1.27%.<blockquote>周二道琼斯工业指数道琼斯下跌282点，结束了五个交易日的上涨势头，股指期货ES00 NQ00看起来略有疲软。10年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD10Y收益率升至1.27%。</blockquote> The tweet<blockquote>推特</blockquote> Ajmal Ahmady, until Saturday the central bank chief of Afghanistan, gave a pretty grim diagnosis for the economy.<blockquote>周六之前担任阿富汗央行行长的Ajmal Ahmady对经济做出了相当严峻的诊断。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6bd50c6280d2e9af2b22cfed7c928d\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Labor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的转折点。一位策略师认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLabor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的转折点。一位策略师认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-18 21:24\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Critical information for the trading day. Summertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week, for example, the top two sectors were the classically defensive utilities, and the highly cyclical materials. The total market volume on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq on Tuesday was 59% below the peak of the year, and 19% below the year’s average.<blockquote>交易日的关键信息。夏季市场可能有点功能失调。例如，上周排名靠前的两个行业是典型的防御性公用事业和高度周期性的材料。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克周二的市场总成交量较年内峰值低59%，较年内平均水平低19%。</blockquote> Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, points out the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after Labor Day, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close. “We believe as the chase for the end of the year begins, a renewed value/cyclical outperformance is likely along with higher 10-year Treasury yields, but like it has been for the past 18 months and will be for the foreseeable future, the virus is the boss,” he says.<blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)机构股票策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)指出，过去两年，劳动节之后股市出现了很大的价值和周期性偏差，而2018年，夏季结束后市场基本崩溃。“我们相信，随着年底追逐的开始，价值/周期性表现可能会随着10年期国债收益率的上升而重新出现，但就像过去18个月和可预见的未来一样，病毒是老板，”他说。</blockquote> The 10-year, he says, is the linchpin to the whole market. Quantitative easing, bank liquidity, Treasury gamesmanship and delta variant fear should all fade in the second half, allowing yields to rise up to a reasonable level. That in turn will get the yield curve steepening, helping value stocks, small-caps and cyclicals — which have a long way to go, given the summer reversal in markets.<blockquote>他说，10年是整个市场的关键。量化宽松、银行流动性、财政部的小动作和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧都应该会在下半年消退，从而使收益率升至合理水平。这反过来将使收益率曲线变陡，帮助价值股、小盘股和周期性股票——考虑到夏季市场的逆转，这些股票还有很长的路要走。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045d6c5307b933cc3b0fc0494b418f15\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Another point he makes is there is no income or spending cliff. By the end of 2021, personal income will be about $1.2 trillion higher than the fourth quarter of 2019 — or put another way, almost exactly in line with the 4% annual average between 2010 and 2019. Since so much of the stimulus was saved, consumer spending should still grow, and an infrastructure stimulus would be a net positive.<blockquote>他提出的另一点是，不存在收入或支出悬崖。到2021年底，个人收入将比2019年第四季度高出约1.2万亿美元——或者换句话说，几乎完全符合2010年至2019年间4%的年平均水平。由于如此多的刺激措施被节省下来，消费者支出应该仍会增长，而基础设施刺激措施将是一个净利好。</blockquote> Another huge tailwind, he says, is that financial obligations as a percent of disposable income are near 40-year lows. “Consumers have dry powder to spend, for a long, long time even with incomes returning to trend line,” says McCourt. Public company leverage also is down — on a next 12 month basis, net debt-to-Ebitda of S&amp;P 500 companies has dropped to 1.07 in July from a peak of 1.55, and 1.28 in December 2019. Inventories, he adds, are “horribly low,” which while depressing this year’s economic output will lead to restocking demand over the next two years.<blockquote>他说，另一个巨大的推动力是金融债务占可支配收入的百分比接近40年来的低点。麦考特说：“即使收入恢复到趋势线，消费者也可以在很长很长一段时间内消费干粉。”上市公司杠杆率也在下降——在未来12个月的基础上，标普500公司的净债务与Ebitda之比已从峰值1.55降至7月份的1.07，2019年12月为1.28。他补充说，库存“低得可怕”，这在抑制今年经济产出的同时，将导致未来两年需求的补充。</blockquote> For the “de-urbanization theme,” McCourt’s stock picks are Lennar LEN,&nbsp;American Homes 4 Rent AMH,&nbsp;Eagle Materials EXP, KB Home&nbsp;KBH and MDC Holdings MDC.&nbsp;For “discounted valuation and improving return on equity,” he likes AutoZone AZO,&nbsp;Old Republic International ORI, Jabil JBL,&nbsp;Triumph Bancorp TBK and Meta Financial Group CASH.<blockquote>对于“去城市化主题”，麦考特的股票选择是Lennar LEN、American Homes 4 Rent AMH、Eagle Materials EXP、KB Home KBH和MDC Holdings MDC。对于“估值折扣和提高股本回报率”，他喜欢AutoZone AZO、Old Republic International ORI、Jabil JBL、Triumph Bancorp TBK和Meta Financial Group CASH。</blockquote> For “economic reopening beneficiaries,” he likes National Retail Properties NNN,&nbsp;Bloomin Brands BLMN and Mohawk Industries MHK, and for infrastructure beneficiaries, he likes Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA and Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY.<blockquote>对于“经济重新开放受益者”，他喜欢NNN国家零售地产、Bloomin Brands BLMN和Mohawk Industries MHK；对于基础设施受益者，他喜欢Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA和Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d103548f1c9d2c78cdff2912add8d2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The one major risk he sees is inflation. During the late 1940s and late 1960s, short-term inflation caused 20% pullbacks, followed by inflation-adjusted returns of about zero over the next five years. In both periods, stronger than typical earnings per share growth was offset by price-to-earnings contraction, he notes.<blockquote>他认为的一个主要风险是通货膨胀。在20世纪40年代末和60年代末，短期通胀导致了20%的回调，随后五年通胀调整后的回报率约为零。他指出，在这两个时期，每股收益强劲的增长都被市盈率收缩所抵消。</blockquote> Fed minutes on tap<blockquote>美联储会议纪要随时准备</blockquote> Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve interest-rate setting committee are due for release at 2 p.m. Eastern, with much of the suspense about the central bank’s direction taken away by earlier stories this week from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that both pointed to imminent announcements that the bond-buying program will be phased out.<blockquote>最近一次美联储利率制定委员会的会议纪要将于下午2点发布。《华尔街日报》和彭博新闻本周早些时候的报道消除了有关央行方向的大部分悬念，这两篇报道都指出即将宣布将逐步取消债券购买计划。</blockquote> “In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors首席美国经济学家Tim Duy表示：“简而言之，在这一点上，美联储只是在制定细节。除非经济发生一些戏剧性的变化，否则缩减资产购买将在未来几个月开始，并在明年年中结束。”</blockquote> Housing starts slumped 7% in July, coming in below economist estimates.<blockquote>7月份新屋开工率下降7%，低于经济学家的预期。</blockquote> Home-improvement chain Lowe’s LOW beat earnings estimates and reported a surprise increase in sales. Discounter Target TGT reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue, as it authorized a new $15 billion stock buyback plan.<blockquote>家居装修连锁店劳氏(Lowe's LOW)的盈利超出预期，并报告销售额意外增长。折扣公司Target TGT公布的盈利和收入超出预期，并批准了一项新的150亿美元股票回购计划。</blockquote> Networking giant Cisco Systems CSCO and graphics chip maker Nvidia NVDA report results after the close.<blockquote>网络巨头思科系统CSCO和图形芯片制造商英伟达NVDA在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote> The markets<blockquote>市场</blockquote> Stock futures ES00 NQ00 were looking a little weaker, following the 282-point downturn in the Dow industrials DJIA&nbsp;on Tuesday that ended a five-session winning run. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 1.27%.<blockquote>周二道琼斯工业指数道琼斯下跌282点，结束了五个交易日的上涨势头，股指期货ES00 NQ00看起来略有疲软。10年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD10Y收益率升至1.27%。</blockquote> The tweet<blockquote>推特</blockquote> Ajmal Ahmady, until Saturday the central bank chief of Afghanistan, gave a pretty grim diagnosis for the economy.<blockquote>周六之前担任阿富汗央行行长的Ajmal Ahmady对经济做出了相当严峻的诊断。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6bd50c6280d2e9af2b22cfed7c928d\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chase-for-the-end-of-the-year-is-about-to-start-this-strategist-says-heres-what-may-happen-next-11629283826?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chase-for-the-end-of-the-year-is-about-to-start-this-strategist-says-heres-what-may-happen-next-11629283826?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1113394526","content_text":"Critical information for the trading day.\n\nSummertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week, for example, the top two sectors were the classically defensive utilities, and the highly cyclical materials. The total market volume on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq on Tuesday was 59% below the peak of the year, and 19% below the year’s average.\nTavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, points out the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after Labor Day, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close. “We believe as the chase for the end of the year begins, a renewed value/cyclical outperformance is likely along with higher 10-year Treasury yields, but like it has been for the past 18 months and will be for the foreseeable future, the virus is the boss,” he says.\nThe 10-year, he says, is the linchpin to the whole market. Quantitative easing, bank liquidity, Treasury gamesmanship and delta variant fear should all fade in the second half, allowing yields to rise up to a reasonable level. That in turn will get the yield curve steepening, helping value stocks, small-caps and cyclicals — which have a long way to go, given the summer reversal in markets.\nAnother point he makes is there is no income or spending cliff. By the end of 2021, personal income will be about $1.2 trillion higher than the fourth quarter of 2019 — or put another way, almost exactly in line with the 4% annual average between 2010 and 2019. Since so much of the stimulus was saved, consumer spending should still grow, and an infrastructure stimulus would be a net positive.\nAnother huge tailwind, he says, is that financial obligations as a percent of disposable income are near 40-year lows. “Consumers have dry powder to spend, for a long, long time even with incomes returning to trend line,” says McCourt. Public company leverage also is down — on a next 12 month basis, net debt-to-Ebitda of S&P 500 companies has dropped to 1.07 in July from a peak of 1.55, and 1.28 in December 2019. Inventories, he adds, are “horribly low,” which while depressing this year’s economic output will lead to restocking demand over the next two years.\nFor the “de-urbanization theme,” McCourt’s stock picks are Lennar LEN, American Homes 4 Rent AMH, Eagle Materials EXP, KB Home KBH and MDC Holdings MDC. For “discounted valuation and improving return on equity,” he likes AutoZone AZO, Old Republic International ORI, Jabil JBL, Triumph Bancorp TBK and Meta Financial Group CASH.\nFor “economic reopening beneficiaries,” he likes National Retail Properties NNN, Bloomin Brands BLMN and Mohawk Industries MHK, and for infrastructure beneficiaries, he likes Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA and Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY.\nThe one major risk he sees is inflation. During the late 1940s and late 1960s, short-term inflation caused 20% pullbacks, followed by inflation-adjusted returns of about zero over the next five years. In both periods, stronger than typical earnings per share growth was offset by price-to-earnings contraction, he notes.\nFed minutes on tap\nMinutes from the most recent Federal Reserve interest-rate setting committee are due for release at 2 p.m. Eastern, with much of the suspense about the central bank’s direction taken away by earlier stories this week from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that both pointed to imminent announcements that the bond-buying program will be phased out.\n“In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.\nHousing starts slumped 7% in July, coming in below economist estimates.\nHome-improvement chain Lowe’s LOW beat earnings estimates and reported a surprise increase in sales. Discounter Target TGT reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue, as it authorized a new $15 billion stock buyback plan.\nNetworking giant Cisco Systems CSCO and graphics chip maker Nvidia NVDA report results after the close.\nThe markets\nStock futures ES00 NQ00 were looking a little weaker, following the 282-point downturn in the Dow industrials DJIA on Tuesday that ended a five-session winning run. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 1.27%.\nThe tweet\nAjmal Ahmady, until Saturday the central bank chief of Afghanistan, gave a pretty grim diagnosis for the economy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2868,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831130170"}