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2021-08-18
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Labor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的一个转折点。以下是一位战略家认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote>
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Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的一个转折点。以下是一位战略家认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113394526","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Critical information for the trading day.\n\nSummertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week,","content":"<p> <b>Critical information for the trading day.</b> Summertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week, for example, the top two sectors were the classically defensive utilities, and the highly cyclical materials. The total market volume on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq on Tuesday was 59% below the peak of the year, and 19% below the year’s average.</p><p><blockquote><b>交易日的关键信息。</b>夏季市场可能有点不正常。例如，上周排名前两位的行业是传统防御性公用事业和高周期性材料。周二，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的总市场成交量比今年的峰值低 59%，比今年的平均水平低 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, points out the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after Labor Day, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close. “We believe as the chase for the end of the year begins, a renewed value/cyclical outperformance is likely along with higher 10-year Treasury yields, but like it has been for the past 18 months and will be for the foreseeable future, the virus is the boss,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James机构股票策略师Tavis McCourt指出，过去两年，劳动节后股市存在较大的价值和周期性偏差，2018年，夏季结束后市场基本崩溃。“他说：”我们认为，随着年底追逐的开始，随着 10 年期国债收益率的上升，价值/周期性表现可能会再次出现，但就像过去 18 个月以及可预见的未来一样，病毒才是主宰。</blockquote></p><p> The 10-year, he says, is the linchpin to the whole market. Quantitative easing, bank liquidity, Treasury gamesmanship and delta variant fear should all fade in the second half, allowing yields to rise up to a reasonable level. That in turn will get the yield curve steepening, helping value stocks, small-caps and cyclicals — which have a long way to go, given the summer reversal in markets.</p><p><blockquote>他说，10年期是整个市场的关键。量化宽松、银行流动性、国债游戏和德尔塔变异毒株担忧都应该会在下半年消退，让收益率升至合理水平。这反过来将使收益率曲线陡峭，有助于估值股票、小盘股和周期性股票——考虑到夏季市场的逆转，这些股票还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045d6c5307b933cc3b0fc0494b418f15\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Another point he makes is there is no income or spending cliff. By the end of 2021, personal income will be about $1.2 trillion higher than the fourth quarter of 2019 — or put another way, almost exactly in line with the 4% annual average between 2010 and 2019. Since so much of the stimulus was saved, consumer spending should still grow, and an infrastructure stimulus would be a net positive.</p><p><blockquote>他提出的另一点是，没有收入或支出悬崖。到 2021 年底，个人收入将比 2019 年第四季度高出约 1.2 万亿美元——或者换句话说，几乎与 2010 年至 2019 年间 4% 的年平均水平完全一致。由于如此多的刺激措施被节省下来，消费者支出应该仍将增长，而基础设施刺激措施将是一个净利好。</blockquote></p><p> Another huge tailwind, he says, is that financial obligations as a percent of disposable income are near 40-year lows. “Consumers have dry powder to spend, for a long, long time even with incomes returning to trend line,” says McCourt. Public company leverage also is down — on a next 12 month basis, net debt-to-Ebitda of S&P 500 companies has dropped to 1.07 in July from a peak of 1.55, and 1.28 in December 2019. Inventories, he adds, are “horribly low,” which while depressing this year’s economic output will lead to restocking demand over the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>他说，另一个巨大的推动力是，金融债务占可支配收入的百分比接近 40 年来的最低点。“麦考特说：”即使收入回到趋势线，消费者在很长很长一段时间内都有干粉可以消费。上市公司杠杆率也在下降——在未来 12 个月的基础上，标普500公司的净债务与 Ebitda 已从 2019 年 12 月的峰值 1.55 和 1.28 降至 7 月份的 1.07。他补充说，库存 “低得可怕”，这在抑制今年经济产出的同时，也将导致未来两年的需求补充。</blockquote></p><p> For the “de-urbanization theme,” McCourt’s stock picks are Lennar LEN, American Homes 4 Rent AMH, Eagle Materials EXP, KB Home KBH and MDC Holdings MDC. For “discounted valuation and improving return on equity,” he likes AutoZone AZO, Old Republic International ORI, Jabil JBL, Triumph Bancorp TBK and Meta Financial Group CASH.</p><p><blockquote>对于 “去城市化主题 ”，McCourt 选择的股票有 Lennar LEN、American Homes 4 Rent AMH、Eagle Materials EXP、KB Home KBH 和 MDC Holdings MDC。对于 “折扣估值和提高股本回报率 ”，他看好 AutoZone AZO、Old Republic International ORI、Jabil JBL、Triumph Bancorp TBK 和 Meta Financial Group CASH。</blockquote></p><p> For “economic reopening beneficiaries,” he likes National Retail Properties NNN, Bloomin Brands BLMN and Mohawk Industries MHK, and for infrastructure beneficiaries, he likes Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA and Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY.</p><p><blockquote>对于 “经济重新开放受益者 ”，他喜欢 National Retail Properties NNN、Bloomin Brands BLMN 和 Mohawk Industries MHK；对于基础设施受益者，他喜欢 Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA 和 Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d103548f1c9d2c78cdff2912add8d2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The one major risk he sees is inflation. During the late 1940s and late 1960s, short-term inflation caused 20% pullbacks, followed by inflation-adjusted returns of about zero over the next five years. In both periods, stronger than typical earnings per share growth was offset by price-to-earnings contraction, he notes.</p><p><blockquote>他认为的一个主要风险是通货膨胀。在20世纪40年代末和60年代末，短期通货膨胀导致20%的回调，随后五年经通货膨胀调整后的回报率约为零。他指出，在这两个时期，强于典型的每股收益增长被市盈率收缩所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed minutes on tap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储会议纪要可用</b></blockquote></p><p> Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve interest-rate setting committee are due for release at 2 p.m. Eastern, with much of the suspense about the central bank’s direction taken away by earlier stories this week from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that both pointed to imminent announcements that the bond-buying program will be phased out.</p><p><blockquote>最新的美联储利率制定委员会会议纪要将于下午2点发布。《华尔街日报》和彭博新闻社本周早些时候的报道消除了有关央行方向的大部分悬念，这两篇报道都指出，即将宣布将逐步取消债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美联储只是在制定细节。SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）说：”除非经济发生剧烈变化，否则缩减资产购买规模将在未来几个月内开始，并在明年年中结束。</blockquote></p><p> Housing starts slumped 7% in July, coming in below economist estimates.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份新屋开工率下降 7%，低于经济学家的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Home-improvement chain Lowe’s LOW beat earnings estimates and reported a surprise increase in sales. Discounter Target TGT reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue, as it authorized a new $15 billion stock buyback plan.</p><p><blockquote>家装连锁店 Lowe's LOW 超出了盈利预期，销售额意外增长。折扣店目标 TGT 公布的盈利和收入超出预期，因为它授权了一项新的 150 亿美元股票回购计划。</blockquote></p><p> Networking giant Cisco Systems CSCO and graphics chip maker Nvidia NVDA report results after the close.</p><p><blockquote>网络巨头思科系统公司 CSCO 和图形芯片制造商 Nvidia NVDA 在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock futures ES00 NQ00 were looking a little weaker, following the 282-point downturn in the Dow industrials DJIA on Tuesday that ended a five-session winning run. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 1.27%.</p><p><blockquote>在道琼斯工业平均指数周二下跌 282 点，结束了五个交易日的上涨势头后，股票期货 ES00 NQ00 看起来略有疲软。10年期国债BX:TMUBMUSD10Y收益率升至1.27%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tweet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>推文</b></blockquote></p><p> Ajmal Ahmady, until Saturday the central bank chief of Afghanistan, gave a pretty grim diagnosis for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>直到周六，阿富汗中央银行行长阿杰马尔·艾哈迈迪对经济做出了相当严峻的诊断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6bd50c6280d2e9af2b22cfed7c928d\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Labor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的一个转折点。以下是一位战略家认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLabor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next<blockquote>过去三年，劳动节一直是市场的一个转折点。以下是一位战略家认为接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 21:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Critical information for the trading day.</b> Summertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week, for example, the top two sectors were the classically defensive utilities, and the highly cyclical materials. The total market volume on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq on Tuesday was 59% below the peak of the year, and 19% below the year’s average.</p><p><blockquote><b>交易日的关键信息。</b>夏季市场可能有点不正常。例如，上周排名前两位的行业是传统防御性公用事业和高周期性材料。周二，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的总市场成交量比今年的峰值低 59%，比今年的平均水平低 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, points out the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after Labor Day, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close. “We believe as the chase for the end of the year begins, a renewed value/cyclical outperformance is likely along with higher 10-year Treasury yields, but like it has been for the past 18 months and will be for the foreseeable future, the virus is the boss,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James机构股票策略师Tavis McCourt指出，过去两年，劳动节后股市存在较大的价值和周期性偏差，2018年，夏季结束后市场基本崩溃。“他说：”我们认为，随着年底追逐的开始，随着 10 年期国债收益率的上升，价值/周期性表现可能会再次出现，但就像过去 18 个月以及可预见的未来一样，病毒才是主宰。</blockquote></p><p> The 10-year, he says, is the linchpin to the whole market. Quantitative easing, bank liquidity, Treasury gamesmanship and delta variant fear should all fade in the second half, allowing yields to rise up to a reasonable level. That in turn will get the yield curve steepening, helping value stocks, small-caps and cyclicals — which have a long way to go, given the summer reversal in markets.</p><p><blockquote>他说，10年期是整个市场的关键。量化宽松、银行流动性、国债游戏和德尔塔变异毒株担忧都应该会在下半年消退，让收益率升至合理水平。这反过来将使收益率曲线陡峭，有助于估值股票、小盘股和周期性股票——考虑到夏季市场的逆转，这些股票还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045d6c5307b933cc3b0fc0494b418f15\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Another point he makes is there is no income or spending cliff. By the end of 2021, personal income will be about $1.2 trillion higher than the fourth quarter of 2019 — or put another way, almost exactly in line with the 4% annual average between 2010 and 2019. Since so much of the stimulus was saved, consumer spending should still grow, and an infrastructure stimulus would be a net positive.</p><p><blockquote>他提出的另一点是，没有收入或支出悬崖。到 2021 年底，个人收入将比 2019 年第四季度高出约 1.2 万亿美元——或者换句话说，几乎与 2010 年至 2019 年间 4% 的年平均水平完全一致。由于如此多的刺激措施被节省下来，消费者支出应该仍将增长，而基础设施刺激措施将是一个净利好。</blockquote></p><p> Another huge tailwind, he says, is that financial obligations as a percent of disposable income are near 40-year lows. “Consumers have dry powder to spend, for a long, long time even with incomes returning to trend line,” says McCourt. Public company leverage also is down — on a next 12 month basis, net debt-to-Ebitda of S&P 500 companies has dropped to 1.07 in July from a peak of 1.55, and 1.28 in December 2019. Inventories, he adds, are “horribly low,” which while depressing this year’s economic output will lead to restocking demand over the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>他说，另一个巨大的推动力是，金融债务占可支配收入的百分比接近 40 年来的最低点。“麦考特说：”即使收入回到趋势线，消费者在很长很长一段时间内都有干粉可以消费。上市公司杠杆率也在下降——在未来 12 个月的基础上，标普500公司的净债务与 Ebitda 已从 2019 年 12 月的峰值 1.55 和 1.28 降至 7 月份的 1.07。他补充说，库存 “低得可怕”，这在抑制今年经济产出的同时，也将导致未来两年的需求补充。</blockquote></p><p> For the “de-urbanization theme,” McCourt’s stock picks are Lennar LEN, American Homes 4 Rent AMH, Eagle Materials EXP, KB Home KBH and MDC Holdings MDC. For “discounted valuation and improving return on equity,” he likes AutoZone AZO, Old Republic International ORI, Jabil JBL, Triumph Bancorp TBK and Meta Financial Group CASH.</p><p><blockquote>对于 “去城市化主题 ”，McCourt 选择的股票有 Lennar LEN、American Homes 4 Rent AMH、Eagle Materials EXP、KB Home KBH 和 MDC Holdings MDC。对于 “折扣估值和提高股本回报率 ”，他看好 AutoZone AZO、Old Republic International ORI、Jabil JBL、Triumph Bancorp TBK 和 Meta Financial Group CASH。</blockquote></p><p> For “economic reopening beneficiaries,” he likes National Retail Properties NNN, Bloomin Brands BLMN and Mohawk Industries MHK, and for infrastructure beneficiaries, he likes Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA and Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY.</p><p><blockquote>对于 “经济重新开放受益者 ”，他喜欢 National Retail Properties NNN、Bloomin Brands BLMN 和 Mohawk Industries MHK；对于基础设施受益者，他喜欢 Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA 和 Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d103548f1c9d2c78cdff2912add8d2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The one major risk he sees is inflation. During the late 1940s and late 1960s, short-term inflation caused 20% pullbacks, followed by inflation-adjusted returns of about zero over the next five years. In both periods, stronger than typical earnings per share growth was offset by price-to-earnings contraction, he notes.</p><p><blockquote>他认为的一个主要风险是通货膨胀。在20世纪40年代末和60年代末，短期通货膨胀导致20%的回调，随后五年经通货膨胀调整后的回报率约为零。他指出，在这两个时期，强于典型的每股收益增长被市盈率收缩所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed minutes on tap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储会议纪要可用</b></blockquote></p><p> Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve interest-rate setting committee are due for release at 2 p.m. Eastern, with much of the suspense about the central bank’s direction taken away by earlier stories this week from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that both pointed to imminent announcements that the bond-buying program will be phased out.</p><p><blockquote>最新的美联储利率制定委员会会议纪要将于下午2点发布。《华尔街日报》和彭博新闻社本周早些时候的报道消除了有关央行方向的大部分悬念，这两篇报道都指出，即将宣布将逐步取消债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美联储只是在制定细节。SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）说：”除非经济发生剧烈变化，否则缩减资产购买规模将在未来几个月内开始，并在明年年中结束。</blockquote></p><p> Housing starts slumped 7% in July, coming in below economist estimates.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份新屋开工率下降 7%，低于经济学家的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Home-improvement chain Lowe’s LOW beat earnings estimates and reported a surprise increase in sales. Discounter Target TGT reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue, as it authorized a new $15 billion stock buyback plan.</p><p><blockquote>家装连锁店 Lowe's LOW 超出了盈利预期，销售额意外增长。折扣店目标 TGT 公布的盈利和收入超出预期，因为它授权了一项新的 150 亿美元股票回购计划。</blockquote></p><p> Networking giant Cisco Systems CSCO and graphics chip maker Nvidia NVDA report results after the close.</p><p><blockquote>网络巨头思科系统公司 CSCO 和图形芯片制造商 Nvidia NVDA 在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock futures ES00 NQ00 were looking a little weaker, following the 282-point downturn in the Dow industrials DJIA on Tuesday that ended a five-session winning run. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 1.27%.</p><p><blockquote>在道琼斯工业平均指数周二下跌 282 点，结束了五个交易日的上涨势头后，股票期货 ES00 NQ00 看起来略有疲软。10年期国债BX:TMUBMUSD10Y收益率升至1.27%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tweet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>推文</b></blockquote></p><p> Ajmal Ahmady, until Saturday the central bank chief of Afghanistan, gave a pretty grim diagnosis for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>直到周六，阿富汗中央银行行长阿杰马尔·艾哈迈迪对经济做出了相当严峻的诊断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6bd50c6280d2e9af2b22cfed7c928d\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chase-for-the-end-of-the-year-is-about-to-start-this-strategist-says-heres-what-may-happen-next-11629283826?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chase-for-the-end-of-the-year-is-about-to-start-this-strategist-says-heres-what-may-happen-next-11629283826?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1113394526","content_text":"Critical information for the trading day.\n\nSummertime markets can be a bit dysfunctional. Last week, for example, the top two sectors were the classically defensive utilities, and the highly cyclical materials. The total market volume on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq on Tuesday was 59% below the peak of the year, and 19% below the year’s average.\nTavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, points out the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after Labor Day, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close. “We believe as the chase for the end of the year begins, a renewed value/cyclical outperformance is likely along with higher 10-year Treasury yields, but like it has been for the past 18 months and will be for the foreseeable future, the virus is the boss,” he says.\nThe 10-year, he says, is the linchpin to the whole market. Quantitative easing, bank liquidity, Treasury gamesmanship and delta variant fear should all fade in the second half, allowing yields to rise up to a reasonable level. That in turn will get the yield curve steepening, helping value stocks, small-caps and cyclicals — which have a long way to go, given the summer reversal in markets.\nAnother point he makes is there is no income or spending cliff. By the end of 2021, personal income will be about $1.2 trillion higher than the fourth quarter of 2019 — or put another way, almost exactly in line with the 4% annual average between 2010 and 2019. Since so much of the stimulus was saved, consumer spending should still grow, and an infrastructure stimulus would be a net positive.\nAnother huge tailwind, he says, is that financial obligations as a percent of disposable income are near 40-year lows. “Consumers have dry powder to spend, for a long, long time even with incomes returning to trend line,” says McCourt. Public company leverage also is down — on a next 12 month basis, net debt-to-Ebitda of S&P 500 companies has dropped to 1.07 in July from a peak of 1.55, and 1.28 in December 2019. Inventories, he adds, are “horribly low,” which while depressing this year’s economic output will lead to restocking demand over the next two years.\nFor the “de-urbanization theme,” McCourt’s stock picks are Lennar LEN, American Homes 4 Rent AMH, Eagle Materials EXP, KB Home KBH and MDC Holdings MDC. For “discounted valuation and improving return on equity,” he likes AutoZone AZO, Old Republic International ORI, Jabil JBL, Triumph Bancorp TBK and Meta Financial Group CASH.\nFor “economic reopening beneficiaries,” he likes National Retail Properties NNN, Bloomin Brands BLMN and Mohawk Industries MHK, and for infrastructure beneficiaries, he likes Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA and Atlantic Sustainable Infrastructure AY.\nThe one major risk he sees is inflation. During the late 1940s and late 1960s, short-term inflation caused 20% pullbacks, followed by inflation-adjusted returns of about zero over the next five years. In both periods, stronger than typical earnings per share growth was offset by price-to-earnings contraction, he notes.\nFed minutes on tap\nMinutes from the most recent Federal Reserve interest-rate setting committee are due for release at 2 p.m. Eastern, with much of the suspense about the central bank’s direction taken away by earlier stories this week from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that both pointed to imminent announcements that the bond-buying program will be phased out.\n“In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.\nHousing starts slumped 7% in July, coming in below economist estimates.\nHome-improvement chain Lowe’s LOW beat earnings estimates and reported a surprise increase in sales. Discounter Target TGT reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue, as it authorized a new $15 billion stock buyback plan.\nNetworking giant Cisco Systems CSCO and graphics chip maker Nvidia NVDA report results after the close.\nThe markets\nStock futures ES00 NQ00 were looking a little weaker, following the 282-point downturn in the Dow industrials DJIA on Tuesday that ended a five-session winning run. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 1.27%.\nThe tweet\nAjmal Ahmady, until Saturday the central bank chief of Afghanistan, gave a pretty grim diagnosis for the economy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3039,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831175540"}
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