WanEH
2021-08-19
Time to rebound?
Where Is NIO Stock Likely Headed For The Rest Of 2021?
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The company could break ev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is growing fast, and its profitability is improving quickly. The company could break even in the not-too-distant future.</li>\n <li>NIO's strong brand, rollout in Europe, and unique BaaS offering provide for a strong long-term growth outlook.</li>\n <li>NIO trades at a clear discount to Tesla, but macro headwinds in China could still continue to pressure its share price in the foreseeable future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NYSE:NIO) is one of the leading Chinese EV pureplays that combines an attractive growth track record with a strong brand and unique battery-as-a-service model. Thanks to industry tailwinds, accommodating regulation in its home market, and a rollout in Europe, NIO's growth outlook is pretty strong.</p>\n<p>At the same time, however, there are other factors to be considered, such as its valuation and macro uncertainties for Chinese stocks. Overall, NIO looks like one of the more attractive EV pureplays, but investors' worries about Chinese regulation could still prevent shares from rising much this year.</p>\n<p><b>NIO Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. has seen its shares move in a wide range over the last year. The stock was as low as $14 and rose to as much as $67 at one point, which resulted in a valuation of well above $100 billion for the company -- quite a lot for a company with annual sales of less than 100,000 vehicles. Since the peak at the beginning of 2021, shares have declined andright now, shares are tradingat $38 per share. This results in a market capitalization of $65 billion, far from a small amount for a company the size of NIO. But analysts are seeing a lot of upside potential from here. The consensus price target of $62 implies a return potential of more than 50% over the next year. Of course there is no guarantee that analyst models are correct and that this price target will be reached.</p>\n<p><b>Will NIO Stock Go Back Up In 2021?</b></p>\n<p>So far 2021 has not been a great year for NIO and other EV pureplays. Following massive enthusiasm by the global investor community in 2020, on the back of fiscal and monetary stimulus and policies that were beneficial for EVs, sentiment has cooled to some extent in 2021. This explains the stock performance of NIO, Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA), XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), and others.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e69ff3254bac58ff5189fa9801ab08\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>EV pureplays have substantially underperformed the broad market year-to-date. Interestingly, legacy auto companies have been the stronger investment so far this year, with Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), Ford(NYSE:F), and General Motors(NYSE:GM)rising by 30%-70% in 2021 alone, thanks to a more aggressive EV push by these companies (such as Ford's F150 Lightning).</p>\n<p>If a stock is down 20%+ in 2021, it makes sense to ask whether this might reverse. In NIO's case, the answer is unclear, as a case can be made for an improving stock price, but at the same time, there are potential risk factors that could prevent shares from rising much this year.</p>\n<p>On the plus side, NIO continues to execute well, the company is growing rapidly, and its brand continues to gain traction in its home market. On top of that, NIO is rolling out its cars in Europe this year, thereby opening another avenue for future revenue and earnings growth.</p>\n<p>Looking at the most recent quarterly results, we see that NIO easily outperformed expectations, beating estimates on both lines. The company was, surprisingly, able to narrow down its net loss drastically, almost being able to break even during the quarter, on the back of a very strong 127% revenue growth versus the previous year's quarter. Adjusted net losses totaled $50 million during the quarter. It seems relatively likely that NIO will be able to balance that out in the not-too-distant future, as the company has added about $200 million in incremental gross profit over the last year. If NIO were to deliver another year of growth like that while increasing its operating expenses by only $100-$150 million, the company will be able to report a net profit. Above-average profitability is thus a major positive factor for NIO's stock, as is its sales growth track record.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0f0f50a1e76e7082151332442ab783\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: NIO earnings report (linked above)</span></p>\n<p>Apart from Q1 2020, which felt a huge impact of the pandemic, NIO has been able to grow its vehicle sales not only on a year-over-year basis but also sequentially. The same should happen during the current quarter, as NIO is guiding for 24,000 deliveries in Q3, which would represent another 10% increase on a sequential basis.</p>\n<p>The NIO ES8 has received the European Whole Vehicle Type Approval this summer, and following NIO's launch in Norway (which includes its BaaS stations), the company already is making further steps, planning to bring its vehicles to five more (so far unnamed) markets on the continent. International expansion will, on top of further market share gains in its home market, be an important driver for future revenue growth, as NIO has big plans. The company, which will sell a little less than 100,000 vehicles this year, announced a deal with JAC to grow its production capacity to 240,000 vehicles a year. Overall, the growth trajectory continues to look strong, with its brand being well-liked in its home market, its unique battery swapping stations being rolled out in more cities in China, and thanks to European expansion. NIO should be able to grow its business at a highly attractive pace in coming quarters and years.</p>\n<p>Looking at NIO's valuation, one can argue that shares have upside, but one can also argue that shares are too expensive -- depending on where you set the reference point.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1532de1f08919c1f73fdd88c642d7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>NIO is valued at 6.2x 2022's expected revenue right now, whereas EV king Tesla is valued at 9.9x 2022's expected sales. This discount exists despite the fact that NIO is growing its sales<i>faster</i>than Tesla, with 68% expected revenue growth in 2022, versus 36% expected revenue growth for Tesla. NIO is thus cheaper and the higher-growth company among the two, which naturally means that NIO could have upside potential if it were to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla. If NIO were to trade at 9.9x 2022's revenue, its shares could climb to $60, which would equate to 50%+ upside potential, and which would be relatively close to the analyst consensus price target.</p>\n<p>It's also possible that NIO will never trade at the valuation Tesla is trading at today, as Tesla's shares could be trading above fair value. Looking at the valuations of legacy auto companies, NIO naturally looks expensive, of course it offers a way better growth outlook as well. Still, NIO looks inexpensive relative to the current EV market leader, and that could lead to significant upside potential both in the near term and in the longer run, as long as sentiment for Chinese EV players improves.</p>\n<p>This gets us to the next point. In recent months, Chinese equities, both when it comes to EV players such as NIO and XPeng,andalso when it comes to tech names, have seen major macro headwinds. Chinese regulators have cracked down on online learning platforms and, more recently, on gaming platforms. This has made investors jittery about Chinese equities overall. Many investors seem to fear overreaching regulation in China and are worried about crackdowns, increasing regulation, potential problems for outside investors, and so on. This has made the broad Chinese equity markets(NASDAQ:MCHI)drop 30% from the 52-week high, and many Chinese stocks are trading close to their 52-week lows right now.</p>\n<p>I have stated elsewhere that I believe the worries about Chinese regulation are overblown, as it does not seem likely that Chinese politicians will be interested in hurting its top companies too much. But still, these risks remain, and it is possible that actions by Chinese regulators will continue to hurt sentiment. In that case, it is possible that NIO's stock actually continues to decline, despite ongoing operational success.</p>\n<p>NIO Stock Prediction</p>\n<p>Due to the aforementioned factors, it's not possible to forecast where exactly NIO will stand at the end of 2021, or a year from now. Thanks to strong growth and improving profitability, the operational outlook is solid. At the same time, NIO is inexpensive versus other EV players, mainly Tesla. Due to macro headwinds in China, however, shares could continue to languish over the coming months, until investors have a clearer picture of what regulators in China want to do -- and what they don't want to do.</p>\n<p>The fact that the current consensus price target implies a 50%+ upside could make the case for a reversal of the recent share price decline. If analysts are right, NIO could see strong gains. From a technical perspective, NIO's relative strength index reading of 35 implies that shares are close to being oversold. When shares are oversold, this is generally seen as a sign that they could rebound in the near term, which may hold true for NIO as well.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Now?</b></p>\n<p>NIO is, I believe, an attractive EV player on a fundamental basis. The company combines strong growth, a strong brand, and its battery swapping serves as a unique selling point that could convince people with range anxiety of buying one of its EVs, as \"refueling\" takes only a couple of minutes. Profitability has been improving in recent quarters, and NIO is not too far from breaking even -- I believe that this could occur in 2022. At the same time, NIO has $7 billion in cash on its balance sheet, which allows the company to invest in growth without having to dilute shareholder value in the near term.</p>\n<p>NIO also trades at a considerable discount to Tesla, despite growing significantly faster, which leaves ample relative upside potential. Relative to legacy auto companies, NIO is still expensive, however.</p>\n<p>Due to macro uncertainties when it comes to Chinese politics, regulation, etc., shares could remain under pressure. This is a risk that should be considered before investing in NIO or its Chinese peers. I personally think that it is not in China's interest to hurt its national champions, and I thus believe that fears are overblown, but others will disagree and avoid investing in Chinese equities for now.</p>\n<p>From a tech, growth, and valuation standpoint, I believe that NIO is one of the more attractive EV picks one can invest in right now, together with others such as XPeng or BYD(OTCPK:BYDDY). In the long run, I see shares rising considerably, but due to the macro issues in China, shares could still continue to trend sideways in China during 2021, unless sentiment on Chinese equities improves.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Is NIO Stock Likely Headed For The Rest Of 2021?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Is NIO Stock Likely Headed For The Rest Of 2021?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-19 11:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450166-nio-stock-rest-of-2021><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is growing fast, and its profitability is improving quickly. The company could break even in the not-too-distant future.\nNIO's strong brand, rollout in Europe, and unique BaaS offering ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450166-nio-stock-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450166-nio-stock-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195086612","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is growing fast, and its profitability is improving quickly. The company could break even in the not-too-distant future.\nNIO's strong brand, rollout in Europe, and unique BaaS offering provide for a strong long-term growth outlook.\nNIO trades at a clear discount to Tesla, but macro headwinds in China could still continue to pressure its share price in the foreseeable future.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NYSE:NIO) is one of the leading Chinese EV pureplays that combines an attractive growth track record with a strong brand and unique battery-as-a-service model. Thanks to industry tailwinds, accommodating regulation in its home market, and a rollout in Europe, NIO's growth outlook is pretty strong.\nAt the same time, however, there are other factors to be considered, such as its valuation and macro uncertainties for Chinese stocks. Overall, NIO looks like one of the more attractive EV pureplays, but investors' worries about Chinese regulation could still prevent shares from rising much this year.\nNIO Stock Price\nNIO, Inc. has seen its shares move in a wide range over the last year. The stock was as low as $14 and rose to as much as $67 at one point, which resulted in a valuation of well above $100 billion for the company -- quite a lot for a company with annual sales of less than 100,000 vehicles. Since the peak at the beginning of 2021, shares have declined andright now, shares are tradingat $38 per share. This results in a market capitalization of $65 billion, far from a small amount for a company the size of NIO. But analysts are seeing a lot of upside potential from here. The consensus price target of $62 implies a return potential of more than 50% over the next year. Of course there is no guarantee that analyst models are correct and that this price target will be reached.\nWill NIO Stock Go Back Up In 2021?\nSo far 2021 has not been a great year for NIO and other EV pureplays. Following massive enthusiasm by the global investor community in 2020, on the back of fiscal and monetary stimulus and policies that were beneficial for EVs, sentiment has cooled to some extent in 2021. This explains the stock performance of NIO, Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA), XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), and others.\nData by YCharts\nEV pureplays have substantially underperformed the broad market year-to-date. Interestingly, legacy auto companies have been the stronger investment so far this year, with Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), Ford(NYSE:F), and General Motors(NYSE:GM)rising by 30%-70% in 2021 alone, thanks to a more aggressive EV push by these companies (such as Ford's F150 Lightning).\nIf a stock is down 20%+ in 2021, it makes sense to ask whether this might reverse. In NIO's case, the answer is unclear, as a case can be made for an improving stock price, but at the same time, there are potential risk factors that could prevent shares from rising much this year.\nOn the plus side, NIO continues to execute well, the company is growing rapidly, and its brand continues to gain traction in its home market. On top of that, NIO is rolling out its cars in Europe this year, thereby opening another avenue for future revenue and earnings growth.\nLooking at the most recent quarterly results, we see that NIO easily outperformed expectations, beating estimates on both lines. The company was, surprisingly, able to narrow down its net loss drastically, almost being able to break even during the quarter, on the back of a very strong 127% revenue growth versus the previous year's quarter. Adjusted net losses totaled $50 million during the quarter. It seems relatively likely that NIO will be able to balance that out in the not-too-distant future, as the company has added about $200 million in incremental gross profit over the last year. If NIO were to deliver another year of growth like that while increasing its operating expenses by only $100-$150 million, the company will be able to report a net profit. Above-average profitability is thus a major positive factor for NIO's stock, as is its sales growth track record.\nSource: NIO earnings report (linked above)\nApart from Q1 2020, which felt a huge impact of the pandemic, NIO has been able to grow its vehicle sales not only on a year-over-year basis but also sequentially. The same should happen during the current quarter, as NIO is guiding for 24,000 deliveries in Q3, which would represent another 10% increase on a sequential basis.\nThe NIO ES8 has received the European Whole Vehicle Type Approval this summer, and following NIO's launch in Norway (which includes its BaaS stations), the company already is making further steps, planning to bring its vehicles to five more (so far unnamed) markets on the continent. International expansion will, on top of further market share gains in its home market, be an important driver for future revenue growth, as NIO has big plans. The company, which will sell a little less than 100,000 vehicles this year, announced a deal with JAC to grow its production capacity to 240,000 vehicles a year. Overall, the growth trajectory continues to look strong, with its brand being well-liked in its home market, its unique battery swapping stations being rolled out in more cities in China, and thanks to European expansion. NIO should be able to grow its business at a highly attractive pace in coming quarters and years.\nLooking at NIO's valuation, one can argue that shares have upside, but one can also argue that shares are too expensive -- depending on where you set the reference point.\nData by YCharts\nNIO is valued at 6.2x 2022's expected revenue right now, whereas EV king Tesla is valued at 9.9x 2022's expected sales. This discount exists despite the fact that NIO is growing its salesfasterthan Tesla, with 68% expected revenue growth in 2022, versus 36% expected revenue growth for Tesla. NIO is thus cheaper and the higher-growth company among the two, which naturally means that NIO could have upside potential if it were to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla. If NIO were to trade at 9.9x 2022's revenue, its shares could climb to $60, which would equate to 50%+ upside potential, and which would be relatively close to the analyst consensus price target.\nIt's also possible that NIO will never trade at the valuation Tesla is trading at today, as Tesla's shares could be trading above fair value. Looking at the valuations of legacy auto companies, NIO naturally looks expensive, of course it offers a way better growth outlook as well. Still, NIO looks inexpensive relative to the current EV market leader, and that could lead to significant upside potential both in the near term and in the longer run, as long as sentiment for Chinese EV players improves.\nThis gets us to the next point. In recent months, Chinese equities, both when it comes to EV players such as NIO and XPeng,andalso when it comes to tech names, have seen major macro headwinds. Chinese regulators have cracked down on online learning platforms and, more recently, on gaming platforms. This has made investors jittery about Chinese equities overall. Many investors seem to fear overreaching regulation in China and are worried about crackdowns, increasing regulation, potential problems for outside investors, and so on. This has made the broad Chinese equity markets(NASDAQ:MCHI)drop 30% from the 52-week high, and many Chinese stocks are trading close to their 52-week lows right now.\nI have stated elsewhere that I believe the worries about Chinese regulation are overblown, as it does not seem likely that Chinese politicians will be interested in hurting its top companies too much. But still, these risks remain, and it is possible that actions by Chinese regulators will continue to hurt sentiment. In that case, it is possible that NIO's stock actually continues to decline, despite ongoing operational success.\nNIO Stock Prediction\nDue to the aforementioned factors, it's not possible to forecast where exactly NIO will stand at the end of 2021, or a year from now. Thanks to strong growth and improving profitability, the operational outlook is solid. At the same time, NIO is inexpensive versus other EV players, mainly Tesla. Due to macro headwinds in China, however, shares could continue to languish over the coming months, until investors have a clearer picture of what regulators in China want to do -- and what they don't want to do.\nThe fact that the current consensus price target implies a 50%+ upside could make the case for a reversal of the recent share price decline. If analysts are right, NIO could see strong gains. From a technical perspective, NIO's relative strength index reading of 35 implies that shares are close to being oversold. When shares are oversold, this is generally seen as a sign that they could rebound in the near term, which may hold true for NIO as well.\nIs NIO Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Now?\nNIO is, I believe, an attractive EV player on a fundamental basis. The company combines strong growth, a strong brand, and its battery swapping serves as a unique selling point that could convince people with range anxiety of buying one of its EVs, as \"refueling\" takes only a couple of minutes. Profitability has been improving in recent quarters, and NIO is not too far from breaking even -- I believe that this could occur in 2022. At the same time, NIO has $7 billion in cash on its balance sheet, which allows the company to invest in growth without having to dilute shareholder value in the near term.\nNIO also trades at a considerable discount to Tesla, despite growing significantly faster, which leaves ample relative upside potential. Relative to legacy auto companies, NIO is still expensive, however.\nDue to macro uncertainties when it comes to Chinese politics, regulation, etc., shares could remain under pressure. This is a risk that should be considered before investing in NIO or its Chinese peers. I personally think that it is not in China's interest to hurt its national champions, and I thus believe that fears are overblown, but others will disagree and avoid investing in Chinese equities for now.\nFrom a tech, growth, and valuation standpoint, I believe that NIO is one of the more attractive EV picks one can invest in right now, together with others such as XPeng or BYD(OTCPK:BYDDY). In the long run, I see shares rising considerably, but due to the macro issues in China, shares could still continue to trend sideways in China during 2021, unless sentiment on Chinese equities improves.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831425656"}
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