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2021-08-19
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Microsoft's Stock May Be About To Run Sharply Higher<blockquote>微软股价可能即将大幅走高</blockquote>
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There are now signs the stock's advance may not be over, with bigger gains to come. The stock could be heading to around $320 to $325 over the next couple of months, nearly 10% to 15% higher than its price of roughly $293 on August 17, based on an analysis of the options market and technical charts.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)一直是疫情的大赢家,该股在过去18个月内飙升。现在有迹象表明,该股的上涨可能还没有结束,还会有更大的涨幅。根据对期权市场和技术图表的分析,该股未来几个月可能会上涨至320美元至325美元左右,比8月17日约293美元的价格高出近10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The positive outlook for the stock comes despite the shares trading at a lofty valuation, just as earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically. It leaves investors in an awkward spot, wondering if they should continue to chase the stock higher just as year-over-year comparables get harder. But the reality of slowing growth may not hit until the company reports its next round of results in late October, giving the shares a path higher over the next couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股估值很高,但该股的前景仍然乐观,而盈利增长预计将大幅放缓。这让投资者陷入了尴尬的境地,他们想知道在同比可比数据变得更加困难的情况下,他们是否应该继续追逐该股走高。但增长放缓的现实可能要到该公司10月底公布下一轮业绩时才会显现,这将使该股在未来几个月走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slower Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长放缓</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings growth for Microsoft is expected to slip going forward, rising by 8.8% in the fiscal year 2022 from 39.7% in fiscal 2021. It is forecast to accelerate in the fiscal year 2023, but only to 14.3%, which is still slower than its earnings growth of 22.4% and 21.3% in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, growth rates over the next four quarters are expected to decelerate, dropping to 7.5% by the fourth quarter from 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>微软的盈利增长预计将下滑,从2021财年的39.7%增长到2022财年的8.8%。预计2023财年将加速增长,但仅达到14.3%,仍低于2019年和2020年22.4%和21.3%的盈利增长。此外,未来四个季度的增长率预计将放缓,从第一财季的13.5%降至第四季度的7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowing growth rate presents the biggest problem for the stock because it currently trades at 29.3 times 2023 earnings estimates. This is not a cheap valuation for Microsoft. In fact, over the past 5 years, the stock has averaged a PE ratio of just 24.6, making the current valuation very pricey on a historical basis.</p><p><blockquote>增长率放缓给该股带来了最大的问题,因为该股目前的市盈率是2023年盈利预期的29.3倍。这对微软来说并不便宜。事实上,在过去5年中,该股的平均市盈率仅为24.6,这使得目前的估值从历史角度来看非常昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bb48fc1b4ed571a9b496e941bcd7df\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On a price-to-sales metric, the stock has only been more expensive one other time, which was in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the dot.com mania. This could really leave an investor feeling confused, with an extremely high valuation for a sales multiple, and while the PE ratio is high, but tolerable. However, the price-to-sales metric is essentially off the charts at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>从市销率指标来看,该股只有一次更贵,那是在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初的互联网狂热期间。这确实会让投资者感到困惑,销售倍数的估值极高,虽然市盈率很高,但还可以忍受。然而,在目前的水平上,市销率指标基本上超出了图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51420f64c4723e67897f0b9f1f1e9704\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, the questionably high valuation isn't stopping the options market from being very bullish on the stock. Perhaps that is because of the stock's momentum behind it since the start of the pandemic. On August 18, the open interest for the November 19 $315 calls rose by around 20,000 contracts. The data shows the call options were bought for roughly $4.50 to $4.75 per contract. It implies that the stock is trading at $319.75 or higher by the expiration date, a gain of around 9.1% from its closing price on August 17. It is a massively bullish bet as well, with premiums paid off roughly $9.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,令人质疑的高估值并没有阻止期权市场对该股的非常看好。也许这是因为自大流行开始以来该股的势头。8月18日,11月19日315美元评级的未平仓合约增加了约2万份。数据显示,看涨期权期权的购买价格约为每份合约4.50至4.75美元。这意味着该股在到期日的交易价格为319.75美元或更高,较8月17日收盘价上涨约9.1%。这也是一个非常看涨的赌注,保费支付了约950万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7029da5552d3abe13f25ed926ee79b19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals Support A Move Higher</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术面支持走高</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, the stock may have further to climb after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern when it rose above resistance at $290. The pattern formed starting around June 4 and a projection of the move off of that starting pointing suggests the stock rises to around $327 over the next few months a gain of about 15%, which is roughly in line with the bullish options bet placed.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看,该股在突破看涨旗形形态后,升破290美元阻力位后可能还需要进一步攀升。该模式是从6月4日左右开始形成的,对该起始点的预测表明,该股在未来几个月内将升至327美元左右,涨幅约为15%,这与看涨期权押注大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> The one concern here is that this could prove to be the final push higher for Microsoft, as there is a bearish divergence currently forming between the stock's price and the momentum indicators. The relative strength index and the MACD are slowly trending lower, and this would indicate that momentum in the stock is now waning and bearish momentum is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>这里的一个担忧是,这可能是微软的最后一次走高,因为该股价格和动量指标之间目前正在形成看跌背离。相对强弱指数和MACD正在缓慢走低,这表明该股的动能正在减弱,看跌动能正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a13885bdd2dc7c41ad5730b0b40332\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The current options and technical setup would suggest the stock is likely to flourish for some time longer, while the fundamentals would suggest the valuation is stretched. Overall, it seems to give Microsoft a path higher at least until the next round of earnings, which is likely not to come until sometime in late October.</p><p><blockquote>目前的期权和技术设置表明该股可能会在一段时间内繁荣,而基本面表明估值过高。总体而言,这似乎至少在下一轮财报发布之前为微软提供了一条走高的道路,而下一轮财报可能要到10月底的某个时候才会到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft's Stock May Be About To Run Sharply Higher<blockquote>微软股价可能即将大幅走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft's Stock May Be About To Run Sharply Higher<blockquote>微软股价可能即将大幅走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 12:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft's stock has been a big winner of the pandemic, and there may be one more 10-15% push higher on the way.</li> <li>The options market appears to be betting that the stock climbs over $320 by the middle of November.</li> <li>However, the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis and growth is about to slow considerably, giving the shares a path higher up until the next earnings report.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的股价一直是疫情的大赢家,未来可能还会上涨10-15%。</li><li>期权市场似乎押注该股到11月中旬将攀升至320美元以上。</li><li>然而,该股的估值处于历史高位,增长即将大幅放缓,这使得该股在下一份收益报告之前有一条上涨的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) has been a big winner of the pandemic, with the stock rocketing higher over the past 18 months. There are now signs the stock's advance may not be over, with bigger gains to come. The stock could be heading to around $320 to $325 over the next couple of months, nearly 10% to 15% higher than its price of roughly $293 on August 17, based on an analysis of the options market and technical charts.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)一直是疫情的大赢家,该股在过去18个月内飙升。现在有迹象表明,该股的上涨可能还没有结束,还会有更大的涨幅。根据对期权市场和技术图表的分析,该股未来几个月可能会上涨至320美元至325美元左右,比8月17日约293美元的价格高出近10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The positive outlook for the stock comes despite the shares trading at a lofty valuation, just as earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically. It leaves investors in an awkward spot, wondering if they should continue to chase the stock higher just as year-over-year comparables get harder. But the reality of slowing growth may not hit until the company reports its next round of results in late October, giving the shares a path higher over the next couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股估值很高,但该股的前景仍然乐观,而盈利增长预计将大幅放缓。这让投资者陷入了尴尬的境地,他们想知道在同比可比数据变得更加困难的情况下,他们是否应该继续追逐该股走高。但增长放缓的现实可能要到该公司10月底公布下一轮业绩时才会显现,这将使该股在未来几个月走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slower Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长放缓</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings growth for Microsoft is expected to slip going forward, rising by 8.8% in the fiscal year 2022 from 39.7% in fiscal 2021. It is forecast to accelerate in the fiscal year 2023, but only to 14.3%, which is still slower than its earnings growth of 22.4% and 21.3% in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, growth rates over the next four quarters are expected to decelerate, dropping to 7.5% by the fourth quarter from 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>微软的盈利增长预计将下滑,从2021财年的39.7%增长到2022财年的8.8%。预计2023财年将加速增长,但仅达到14.3%,仍低于2019年和2020年22.4%和21.3%的盈利增长。此外,未来四个季度的增长率预计将放缓,从第一财季的13.5%降至第四季度的7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowing growth rate presents the biggest problem for the stock because it currently trades at 29.3 times 2023 earnings estimates. This is not a cheap valuation for Microsoft. In fact, over the past 5 years, the stock has averaged a PE ratio of just 24.6, making the current valuation very pricey on a historical basis.</p><p><blockquote>增长率放缓给该股带来了最大的问题,因为该股目前的市盈率是2023年盈利预期的29.3倍。这对微软来说并不便宜。事实上,在过去5年中,该股的平均市盈率仅为24.6,这使得目前的估值从历史角度来看非常昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bb48fc1b4ed571a9b496e941bcd7df\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On a price-to-sales metric, the stock has only been more expensive one other time, which was in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the dot.com mania. This could really leave an investor feeling confused, with an extremely high valuation for a sales multiple, and while the PE ratio is high, but tolerable. However, the price-to-sales metric is essentially off the charts at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>从市销率指标来看,该股只有一次更贵,那是在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初的互联网狂热期间。这确实会让投资者感到困惑,销售倍数的估值极高,虽然市盈率很高,但还可以忍受。然而,在目前的水平上,市销率指标基本上超出了图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51420f64c4723e67897f0b9f1f1e9704\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, the questionably high valuation isn't stopping the options market from being very bullish on the stock. Perhaps that is because of the stock's momentum behind it since the start of the pandemic. On August 18, the open interest for the November 19 $315 calls rose by around 20,000 contracts. The data shows the call options were bought for roughly $4.50 to $4.75 per contract. It implies that the stock is trading at $319.75 or higher by the expiration date, a gain of around 9.1% from its closing price on August 17. It is a massively bullish bet as well, with premiums paid off roughly $9.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,令人质疑的高估值并没有阻止期权市场对该股的非常看好。也许这是因为自大流行开始以来该股的势头。8月18日,11月19日315美元评级的未平仓合约增加了约2万份。数据显示,看涨期权期权的购买价格约为每份合约4.50至4.75美元。这意味着该股在到期日的交易价格为319.75美元或更高,较8月17日收盘价上涨约9.1%。这也是一个非常看涨的赌注,保费支付了约950万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7029da5552d3abe13f25ed926ee79b19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals Support A Move Higher</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术面支持走高</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, the stock may have further to climb after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern when it rose above resistance at $290. The pattern formed starting around June 4 and a projection of the move off of that starting pointing suggests the stock rises to around $327 over the next few months a gain of about 15%, which is roughly in line with the bullish options bet placed.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看,该股在突破看涨旗形形态后,升破290美元阻力位后可能还需要进一步攀升。该模式是从6月4日左右开始形成的,对该起始点的预测表明,该股在未来几个月内将升至327美元左右,涨幅约为15%,这与看涨期权押注大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> The one concern here is that this could prove to be the final push higher for Microsoft, as there is a bearish divergence currently forming between the stock's price and the momentum indicators. The relative strength index and the MACD are slowly trending lower, and this would indicate that momentum in the stock is now waning and bearish momentum is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>这里的一个担忧是,这可能是微软的最后一次走高,因为该股价格和动量指标之间目前正在形成看跌背离。相对强弱指数和MACD正在缓慢走低,这表明该股的动能正在减弱,看跌动能正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a13885bdd2dc7c41ad5730b0b40332\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The current options and technical setup would suggest the stock is likely to flourish for some time longer, while the fundamentals would suggest the valuation is stretched. Overall, it seems to give Microsoft a path higher at least until the next round of earnings, which is likely not to come until sometime in late October.</p><p><blockquote>目前的期权和技术设置表明该股可能会在一段时间内繁荣,而基本面表明估值过高。总体而言,这似乎至少在下一轮财报发布之前为微软提供了一条走高的道路,而下一轮财报可能要到10月底的某个时候才会到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450393-microsofts-stock-may-be-about-to-run-sharply-higher\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450393-microsofts-stock-may-be-about-to-run-sharply-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126957066","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's stock has been a big winner of the pandemic, and there may be one more 10-15% push higher on the way.\nThe options market appears to be betting that the stock climbs over $320 by the middle of November.\nHowever, the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis and growth is about to slow considerably, giving the shares a path higher up until the next earnings report.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMicrosoft (MSFT) has been a big winner of the pandemic, with the stock rocketing higher over the past 18 months. There are now signs the stock's advance may not be over, with bigger gains to come. The stock could be heading to around $320 to $325 over the next couple of months, nearly 10% to 15% higher than its price of roughly $293 on August 17, based on an analysis of the options market and technical charts.\nThe positive outlook for the stock comes despite the shares trading at a lofty valuation, just as earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically. It leaves investors in an awkward spot, wondering if they should continue to chase the stock higher just as year-over-year comparables get harder. But the reality of slowing growth may not hit until the company reports its next round of results in late October, giving the shares a path higher over the next couple of months.\nSlower Growth\nEarnings growth for Microsoft is expected to slip going forward, rising by 8.8% in the fiscal year 2022 from 39.7% in fiscal 2021. It is forecast to accelerate in the fiscal year 2023, but only to 14.3%, which is still slower than its earnings growth of 22.4% and 21.3% in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, growth rates over the next four quarters are expected to decelerate, dropping to 7.5% by the fourth quarter from 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter.\nThe slowing growth rate presents the biggest problem for the stock because it currently trades at 29.3 times 2023 earnings estimates. This is not a cheap valuation for Microsoft. In fact, over the past 5 years, the stock has averaged a PE ratio of just 24.6, making the current valuation very pricey on a historical basis.\n\nOn a price-to-sales metric, the stock has only been more expensive one other time, which was in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the dot.com mania. This could really leave an investor feeling confused, with an extremely high valuation for a sales multiple, and while the PE ratio is high, but tolerable. However, the price-to-sales metric is essentially off the charts at current levels.\n\nOptions Outlook\nStill, the questionably high valuation isn't stopping the options market from being very bullish on the stock. Perhaps that is because of the stock's momentum behind it since the start of the pandemic. On August 18, the open interest for the November 19 $315 calls rose by around 20,000 contracts. The data shows the call options were bought for roughly $4.50 to $4.75 per contract. It implies that the stock is trading at $319.75 or higher by the expiration date, a gain of around 9.1% from its closing price on August 17. It is a massively bullish bet as well, with premiums paid off roughly $9.5 million.\n\nTechnicals Support A Move Higher\nFrom a technical perspective, the stock may have further to climb after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern when it rose above resistance at $290. The pattern formed starting around June 4 and a projection of the move off of that starting pointing suggests the stock rises to around $327 over the next few months a gain of about 15%, which is roughly in line with the bullish options bet placed.\nThe one concern here is that this could prove to be the final push higher for Microsoft, as there is a bearish divergence currently forming between the stock's price and the momentum indicators. The relative strength index and the MACD are slowly trending lower, and this would indicate that momentum in the stock is now waning and bearish momentum is taking hold.\n\nThe current options and technical setup would suggest the stock is likely to flourish for some time longer, while the fundamentals would suggest the valuation is stretched. Overall, it seems to give Microsoft a path higher at least until the next round of earnings, which is likely not to come until sometime in late October.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831783087"}
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