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2021-08-22

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American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":832894856,"tweetId":"832894856","gmtCreate":1629603968175,"gmtModify":1631890122250,"author":{"id":3564210269929975,"idStr":"3564210269929975","authorId":3564210269929975,"authorIdStr":"3564210269929975","name":"kk__soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f0205e29fd09d7864877ae54901e3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Whee!! Free likes!!&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Whee!! Free likes!!&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Whee!! Free likes!!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832894856","repostId":1158638011,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158638011","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629602404,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158638011?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158638011","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nL","content":" Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks. Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.<blockquote>消费者情绪是一个反向指标，因此他们目前的悲观情绪对股市有利。上周密歇根大学消费者信心指数的意外暴跌实际上对美股投资者来说是个好消息。这是因为美国消费者是股市的逆向指标。过去四十年来，消费者信心大幅下降后，股市回报率往往高于平均水平。</blockquote> This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>这应该会让华尔街多头松一口气，因为他们一直在担心密歇根大学指数的最新数据。该指数从7月份的81.2点跌至上周的70.2点。这是自 2011 年 12 月以来的最低值，甚至低于 COVID-19 大流行最黑暗的最初几周的最低读数。</blockquote> To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.<blockquote>要了解这一最新数据有多出乎意料，请考虑一下 MarketWatch 提前调查的经济学家平均预测该指数将达到 81.3，比 7 月份的数字略有上升。</blockquote> To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.<blockquote>为了分析像最近一次这样大幅度下跌的意义，我计算了自 1978 年以来密歇根大学指数的月度变化与标普500 sSPX 指数在通货膨胀和股息调整后的后续表现之间的相关性。我发现，每当这个情绪指数下降至少10个百分点时，随后三个月的标普500平均上涨3.6%。</blockquote> That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.<blockquote>这是三个月平均涨幅 1.7% 的两倍，而在此之前的几个月里，消费者信心指数至少上升了 10 个百分点。此外，如下图所示，六个月内的这种对比甚至更大：7.5% 对 2.6%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，自 1978 年以来，消费者信心指数还没有多少个月出现过如此大的涨幅。情绪指数的月度变化与美国股市随后的表现之间的反比关系在统计上只有边缘意义。因此，你不应该利用情绪指数大幅下跌的机会将谨慎抛诸脑后。</blockquote> Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.<blockquote>尽管如此，如果你愿意相信这种历史关系在统计学上无关紧要，你仍然不能断定最近的下降是一个不好的迹象。相反，你不得不得出结论：密歇根大学指数并不能告诉你未来几个月股市的前景。</blockquote> So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.<blockquote>所以你有了它。要么最近的下跌毫无意义，要么就是看涨。如果你想相信最近的下跌是个坏消息，你必须把你的论点建立在1978年以来美国股市历史以外的东西上。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months<blockquote>美国消费者的灰色情绪可能会在未来 6 个月内让标普500陷入绿色</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-22 11:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks. Last week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.<blockquote>消费者情绪是一个反向指标，因此他们目前的悲观情绪对股市有利。上周密歇根大学消费者信心指数的意外暴跌实际上对美股投资者来说是个好消息。这是因为美国消费者是股市的逆向指标。过去四十年来，消费者信心大幅下降后，股市回报率往往高于平均水平。</blockquote> This should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>这应该会让华尔街多头松一口气，因为他们一直在担心密歇根大学指数的最新数据。该指数从7月份的81.2点跌至上周的70.2点。这是自 2011 年 12 月以来的最低值，甚至低于 COVID-19 大流行最黑暗的最初几周的最低读数。</blockquote> To appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.<blockquote>要了解这一最新数据有多出乎意料，请考虑一下 MarketWatch 提前调查的经济学家平均预测该指数将达到 81.3，比 7 月份的数字略有上升。</blockquote> To analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.<blockquote>为了分析像最近一次这样大幅度下跌的意义，我计算了自 1978 年以来密歇根大学指数的月度变化与标普500 sSPX 指数在通货膨胀和股息调整后的后续表现之间的相关性。我发现，每当这个情绪指数下降至少10个百分点时，随后三个月的标普500平均上涨3.6%。</blockquote> That’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.<blockquote>这是三个月平均涨幅 1.7% 的两倍，而在此之前的几个月里，消费者信心指数至少上升了 10 个百分点。此外，如下图所示，六个月内的这种对比甚至更大：7.5% 对 2.6%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db16295aee3c6f4bbf094317ade3d200\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">To be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，自 1978 年以来，消费者信心指数还没有多少个月出现过如此大的涨幅。情绪指数的月度变化与美国股市随后的表现之间的反比关系在统计上只有边缘意义。因此，你不应该利用情绪指数大幅下跌的机会将谨慎抛诸脑后。</blockquote> Nevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.<blockquote>尽管如此，如果你愿意相信这种历史关系在统计学上无关紧要，你仍然不能断定最近的下降是一个不好的迹象。相反，你不得不得出结论：密歇根大学指数并不能告诉你未来几个月股市的前景。</blockquote> So there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.<blockquote>所以你有了它。要么最近的下跌毫无意义，要么就是看涨。如果你想相信最近的下跌是个坏消息，你必须把你的论点建立在1978年以来美国股市历史以外的东西上。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-consumers-gray-mood-could-put-the-s-p-500-in-the-green-over-the-next-6-months-11629181914?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158638011","content_text":"Consumers’ sentiment is a contrarian indicator, so their current pessimism is bullish for stocks.\n\nLast week’s unexpected plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is actually good news for U.S. stock investors. That’s because the American consumer is a contrarian stock-market indicator. More often than not over the past four decades, large declines in consumer confidence have been followed by above-average stock market returns.\nThis should come as a big relief for Wall Street bulls, who have otherwise been fretting about the University of Michigan index’s latest reading. From a July level of 81.2,the index fell last week to 70.2. That’s the lowest since December 2011 — lower even than the lowest reading registered in the darkest early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nTo appreciate how much this latest reading was unexpected, consider that the economists surveyed in advance by MarketWatch were predicting, on average, that the index would come in at 81.3 — a slight right rise from the July number.\nTo analyze the significance of drops as big as this latest one, I calculated the correlations between monthly changes in the University of Michigan index since 1978 and the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.81%subsequent performance on both an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. I found that whenever this sentiment index dropped by at least 10 percentage points, the S&P 500 over the subsequent three months gained an average of 3.6%.\nThat’s double the 1.7% average three-month gain following months in which the consumer sentiment index gained at least 10 percentage points. Moreover, as evident in the chart below, this contrast at the six-month horizon is even greater: 7.5% versus 2.6%.\nTo be sure, there aren’t that many months since 1978 in which the consumer sentiment index rose or fell by this much. The inverse relationship between the sentiment index’s monthly changes and the U.S. stock market’s subsequent performance is only marginally statistically significant. So you should not use the occasion of the sentiment index’s big drop to throw caution to the wind.\nNevertheless, if you want to believe that this historical relationship is statistically insignificant, you still can’t conclude that this most recent drop is a bad sign. You’d instead have to conclude that the University of Michigan index tells you nothing about the stock market’s prospects in coming months.\nSo there you have it. Either this latest drop means nothing, or it is bullish. If you want to believe that this latest drop is bad news, you will have to base your argument on something other than U.S. stock market history since 1978.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/832894856"}