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2021-08-18
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Palantir: Lord Of Growth, ARK Invest, And Becoming Lord Of The Market<blockquote>Palantir：增长之王、方舟投资并成为市场之王</blockquote>
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It's been a tug of war, and commentators have made statements such as \"I think it's too much of a black box to get a real read on the business.\"PLTR is coming out of earnings season as the lord of the earnings as revenue increased by 49% YoY, and PLTR raises its 2021 full-year outlook.ARK Invest took the opportunity to add 5.2 million shares on Thursday after earnings were announced through six individual purchases throughout the day. I continuously become more bullish on PLTR after each earnings report, and Q2 2021 didn't disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>只有时间才能证明空头是否会让步并改变对Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）的立场。这是一场拉锯战，评论员们发表了诸如“我认为这是一个太多的黑匣子，无法真正了解该业务。”PLTR即将结束财报季，成为财报之王，营收同比增长49%，PLTR上调了2021年全年预期。周四，ARK Invest趁机增持了520万股全天六次单独购买。每份收益报告发布后，我不断更加看好PLTR，2021年第二季度也没有让人失望。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, software companies have experienced an extraordinary bull market as the evolution of technology transformed the business landscape. Regardless of the sector, evolution never stops, and in 2021, technology has become the backbone of enterprise. I wish the bears would get past the fact that PLTR can't discuss part of its business as it's a matter of national security. Being a top vendor with the United States government is positive, and all that matters are the numbers being reported. As investors, we don't need the details of what PLTR is doing with the military. The United States Government and PLTR both report what entities are doing business with PLTR, the contract duration, and the monetary value of the contract. The second jab bears would make against PLTR was the lack of commercial contracts. After the first six months of 2021, PLTR has put this to bed as its commercial customer count grew by 20% QoQ while commercial revenue increased 28% YoY. PLTR is becoming one of the most important software companies of the decade, and we have only begun to scratch the surface.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的十年里，随着技术的发展改变了商业格局，软件公司经历了一场非同寻常的牛市。无论哪个领域，进化从未停止，2021年，技术已经成为企业的支柱。我希望看空者能够忘记PLTR不能讨论其部分业务的事实，因为这关系到国家安全。成为美国政府的顶级供应商是积极的，重要的是报告的数字。作为投资者，我们不需要PLTR与军方合作的细节。美国政府和PLTR都报告了哪些实体与PLTR开展业务、合同期限和合同的货币价值。空头对PLTR的第二个攻击是缺乏商业合同。2021年前六个月后，PLTR已经解决了这一问题，其商业客户数量环比增长20%，而商业收入同比增长28%。PLTR正在成为十年来最重要的软件公司之一，而我们才刚刚开始触及表面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99232f45d9109619c997717e11f2cba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir continues to strengthen its government business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir继续加强其政府业务</b></blockquote></p><p> As an American, I am proud to be a shareholder of PLTR. We need more companies aligned with providing the best solutions possible to our government agencies. PLTR continues to strengthen its relationship with the most powerful government globally, which is mutually beneficial. The United States Government gets the most sophisticated software applications while PLTR generates millions in additional revenue each quarter. Going back to PLTR's previous quarterly presentations, I mapped out the government business sector's growth. I would ask why the stigma of being a \"black box\" diminishes PLTR as the numbers are reported, and that's what matters?</p><p><blockquote>作为一名美国人，我很自豪能成为PLTR的股东。我们需要更多的公司为我们的政府机构提供最佳解决方案。PLTR继续加强与全球最强大政府的关系，这是互利的。美国政府获得最复杂的软件应用程序，而PLTR每季度产生数百万美元的额外收入。回到PLTR之前的季度演示，我描绘了政府商业部门的增长情况。我会问，为什么当数字被报道时，作为“黑匣子”的耻辱会削弱PLTR，这才是最重要的？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7325d0dd43a97bbc6426a6f2bda7b460\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the past seven quarters, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue from its government contracts by 139.18% ($135 million). PLTR's average quarterly growth rate has been 13.24% as they have added an average of $19.29 million in government contract value to its revenue since Q3 2019. When looking at the trailing twelve months (TTM) quarterly, PLTR has increased its TTM government revenue by $335 million (73.14%) over the past year. PLTR's TTM revenue at the end of Q2 2021 has grown to $793 million from $458 million in Q2 2020. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's government revenue TTM has grown by an average of $83.75 million with an average growth rate of 18.29% QoQ.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的七个季度中，PLTR来自政府合同的季度收入增长了139.18%（1.35亿美元）。PLTR的平均季度增长率为13.24%，自2019年第三季度以来，他们的收入平均增加了1929万美元的政府合同价值。从过去12个月(TTM)季度来看，PLTR的TTM政府收入在过去一年中增加了3.35亿美元(73.14%)。PLTR截至2021年第二季度末的TTM收入已从2020年第二季度的4.58亿美元增长至7.93亿美元。过去四个季度，PLTR的政府收入TTM平均增长8375万美元，环比平均增长率为18.29%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It's perplexing how individuals neglect to give PLTR's government business the credit it deserves. InQ2 2021, PLTR signed new deals with the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard, including a two-year $100 million deal with SOCOM. PLTR also signed new contracts with HHS and the CDC. This included expanding PLTR's efforts to help the U.S. manage vaccine production, distribution, and administration. Using the Federal Procurement Data System as a source of reference, PLTR had inked 17 government contracts that had been uploaded. Reading through the agencies PLTR supports, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Internal Revenue Service, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Food and Drug Administration, PLTR continues to solidify itself as one of the premier vendors to good old Uncle Sam.</p><p><blockquote>令人费解的是，个人如何忽视给予PLTR的政府业务应有的信任。2021年第二季度，PLTR与美国陆军、空军和海岸警卫队签署了新协议，其中包括与SOCOM签订的为期两年、价值1亿美元的协议。PLTR还与HHS和CDC签署了新合同。这包括扩大PLTR帮助美国管理疫苗生产、分销和管理的努力。PLTR以联邦采购数据系统为参考来源，签署了17份已上传的政府合同。通过阅读PLTR支持的机构，包括美国海岸警卫队、证券交易委员会、国税局、联邦航空管理局和食品药品监督管理局，PLTR继续巩固自己作为优秀供应商之一的地位。老山姆大叔。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cfe7d516eccbc1e388ce2c9d9bf22d\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"239\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据系统）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's commercial business is becoming larger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的商业业务规模越来越大</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the major complaints and criticisms from the bears has been the lack of commercial business PLTR generated. Many had subscribed to the logic that building the rapport on the commercial side would be challenging because PLTR was a black box, and nobody knew what they did. Many had indicated that this wouldn't be a worthwhile investment unless PLTR could prove that their software could be utilized and implemented on the commercial side. It turns out that PLTR continues to blow holes directly through this theory as the commercial side continues to grow.</p><p><blockquote>空头的主要抱怨和批评之一是PLTR产生的商业业务的缺乏。许多人赞同这样的逻辑，即在商业方面建立融洽的关系将具有挑战性，因为PLTR是一个黑匣子，没有人知道他们在做什么。许多人表示，除非PLTR能够证明他们的软件可以在商业方面得到利用和实施，否则这不是一项值得的投资。事实证明，随着商业方面的不断增长，PLTR继续直接突破这一理论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46599961a2896393d62866415c1041ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2 2021, PLTR had increased their commercial revenue quarterly by $50 million (53.2%) over the past seven quarters. PLTR has experienced QoQ growth at an average rate of $7.14 million or 7.6%. At the end of Q2 2020, PLTR had generated $443 million in revenue from its commercial business contracts for the TTM. Over the past year, this had increased by $93 million or 21%, as commercial accounted for $536 million of PLTR's revenue in the TTM. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's commercial TTM revenue has increased at an average of $23.25 million or 4.91% QoQ.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第二季度末，PLTR的商业收入在过去七个季度中每季度增加了5000万美元（53.2%）。PLTR的平均环比增长为714万美元，即7.6%。截至2020年第二季度末，PLTR已从TTM商业业务合同中创造了4.43亿美元的收入。在过去的一年里，这一数字增加了9300万美元，即21%，因为商业收入占PLTR在TTM收入的5.36亿美元。过去四个季度，PLTR的商业TTM收入平均增长2325万美元，环比增长4.91%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451518a91166bccfcbbc7d6207923cb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir continues to be a growth machine from contracts down to its customers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir继续成为从合同到客户的增长机器</b></blockquote></p><p> Business is flourishing at PLTR as its Q2 and first half 2021 revenue both increased by 49% YoY. In Q2 2021, PLTR's overall revenue increased from $252 million ($112 million commercial, $140 million government) to $376 million ($144 million commercial, $232 million government). For the first half of 2021, PLTR has generated $717 million in revenue compared to $481 million for the same period in 2020, increasing $236 million. Over the past seven quarters, PLTR's total revenue has increased at an average rate of $26.43 million or 10.32% QoQ.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR业务蓬勃发展，2021年第二季度和上半年收入均同比增长49%。2021年第二季度，PLTR的总收入从2.52亿美元（商业1.12亿美元，政府1.4亿美元）增加到3.76亿美元（商业1.44亿美元，政府2.32亿美元）。2021年上半年，PLTR创造了7.17亿美元的收入，而2020年同期为4.81亿美元，增加了2.36亿美元。过去七个季度，PLTR的总收入平均增长2643万美元，环比增长10.32%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c45075d03249129a54c5e54c77da358\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Every important metric is increasing for PLTR, and the bears should pay attention to these metrics. In Q2, PLTR added 20 new customers as their total commercial customer count increased 13% QoQ to 169. Since the close of 2020, in the first half of 2021, PLTR has increased its commercial customers by 21.58%. PLTR closed Q2 with $3.4 billion in total remaining deal value, which was an increase of 63% YoY, growing from $2.1 billion at the end of Q2 2020. PLTR's average revenue generated per customer has increased 19% from $6.6 million to $7.9 million for the TTM at the end of Q2 2021, compared to Q2 2020. What's more impressive is the growth throughout PLTR's largest customers. PLTR's average revenue per top 20 customers has increased by 36%, from $29 million to $39 million YoY for the TTM.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR的每一个重要指标都在增加，空头应该关注这些指标。第二季度，PLTR增加了20个新客户，其商业客户总数环比增长13%至169个。自2020年底以来，2021年上半年，PLTR的商业客户增长了21.58%。PLTR在第二季度结束时的剩余交易总额为34亿美元，同比增长63%，较2020年第二季度末的21亿美元有所增长。与2020年第二季度相比，截至2021年第二季度末，PLTR TTM每位客户的平均收入增长了19%，从660万美元增至790万美元。更令人印象深刻的是PLTR最大客户的增长。PLTR每前20名客户的平均收入同比增长了36%，从2900万美元增至3900万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Many companies that are considered growth companies have impressive revenue gains, but what separates PLTR from others is their increasing margins and adjusted free cash flow. As PLTR gains customers and signed contracts, their margins have been improving, which has led to positive free cash flow. PLTR's adjusted gross margin is 82%, and its contribution margin is 58%. In Q2 2021, PLTR produced $117 million in adjusted operating income, which increased $88 million (303.45%) YoY. PLTR's adjusted operating margin came in at 31% compared to their 23% guidance level. In the first half of 2020, PLTR reported -$232 million of adjusted free cash flow. Over the past year, PLTR has made tremendous progress as their adjusted free cash flow in the first half of 2021 was $201 million, which represented a margin of 28%.</p><p><blockquote>许多被认为是成长型公司的公司都有令人印象深刻的收入增长，但PLTR与其他公司的区别在于其不断增长的利润率和调整后的自由现金流。随着PLTR赢得客户并签署合同，他们的利润率一直在提高，从而带来了正的自由现金流。PLTR调整后毛利率为82%，贡献率为58%。2021年第二季度，PLTR调整后营业收入为1.17亿美元，同比增长8800万美元（303.45%）。PLTR调整后的营业利润率为31%，而指导水平为23%。2020年上半年，PLTR报告调整后自由现金流为-2.32亿美元。在过去的一年里，PLTR取得了巨大进展，2021年上半年调整后的自由现金流为2.01亿美元，利润率为28%。</blockquote></p><p> PLTR is growing its commercial customers, gaining government contracts, increasing its revenue quarterly, and is free cash flow positive. PLTR raised its 2021 full-year guidance and confirmed the theory by many PLTR bulls that their guidance was conservative. PLTR increased its adjusted free cash flow guidance by 100% as it increased from $150 million to $300 million for 2021. PLTR is still projecting a 30% revenue growth rate for 2021 and on an annual basis through 2025. PLTR has set the bar for Q3 2021 at $385 million for total revenue, which would be a QoQ increase of $9 million (2.4%) and a YoY increase of $95 million (32.76%).</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在增加其商业客户，获得政府合同，增加季度收入，并且自由现金流为正。PLTR上调了2021年全年指引，并证实了许多PLTR多头的理论，即他们的指引是保守的。PLTR将调整后的自由现金流指引从2021年的1.5亿美元增加到3亿美元，提高了100%。PLTR仍预计2021年收入增长率为30%，到2025年每年增长率为30%。PLTR将2021年第三季度的总收入设定为3.85亿美元，环比增长900万美元（2.4%），同比增长9500万美元（32.76%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28cf6fb10eaa83fcdee57a7faa0f478e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is most likely understating Q3 2021 revenue estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir很可能低估了2021年第三季度的收入预期</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR guided for $385 million revenue in Q3 2021. I will make an educated prediction and say this is low, and the actual number will be closer to $406 million. Going back to Q3 2019, PLTR has grown its commercial customer quarterly revenue at an average rate of 7.14% QoQ. PLTR's government revenue has increased at an average rate of 13.34% QoQ since Q3 2019. Putting these growth rates to the side for a moment, PLTR has inked five new contracts in Q3 2021 according to the Federal Procurement Data System for a total contract value of $102.82 million, of which $14.78 million are current action obligations. This indicates that growth will be similar to previous quarters on the government side as this is on pace with Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR预计2021年第三季度收入为3.85亿美元。我会做一个有根据的预测，说这个数字很低，实际数字会更接近4.06亿美元。回到2019年第三季度，PLTR的商业客户季度收入平均环比增长7.14%。自2019年第三季度以来，PLTR的政府收入平均环比增长13.34%。暂时抛开这些增长率不谈，根据联邦采购数据系统的数据，PLTR在2021年第三季度签署了五份新合同，合同总价值为1.0282亿美元，其中1,478万美元是当前行动义务。这表明政府方面的增长将与前几个季度相似，因为这与Q2 2021保持同步。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c231bdbc525594bc8fec4ab79cf996cb\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"96\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据系统）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Assuming that PLTR's growth rates follow its previous trend and I use a conservative estimate of 5% on the commercial side and 10% on the government side, PLTR would generate $151.20 million in revenue from the commercial business and $255.20 million from the government business for a total of $406.40 million in total Q3 revenue. Using the same methodology, PLTR would generate $439.48 million in Q4 2021 total revenue placing their total annual revenue for 2021 at $1.562.88 billion. If this works out, PLTR's prediction of 30% plus revenue growth in 2021 would be an understatement as its revenue would grow by $469.88 million YoY or 42.99%. I would also assume that the increased guidance for the adjusted free cash flow of $300+ million would be on the low end.</p><p><blockquote>假设PLTR的增长率遵循之前的趋势，我保守估计商业方面为5%，政府方面为10%，PLTR将从商业业务中产生1.512亿美元的收入，从政府业务中产生2.552亿美元的收入，第三季度总收入为4.064亿美元。使用相同的方法，PLTR将在2021年第四季度产生4.3948亿美元的总收入，使其2021年的总收入达到15.628.8亿美元。如果实现这一目标，PLTR对2021年收入增长30%以上的预测将是一种保守的说法，因为其收入将同比增长4.6988亿美元，即42.99%。我还假设调整后自由现金流3亿美元以上的增加指导将处于低端。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30733619dbdb3bff53f3348208a9d46c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"247\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ARK Invest loaded the boat and purchased 5.2 million shares after Thursday's earnings were released</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARK Invest在周四财报发布后买入520万股</b></blockquote></p><p> I know that some readers dislike when I discuss the trades over at ARK Invest regarding PLTR, so I will apologize in advance. I apologize to anyone who I offend. Personally, I love when ARK Invest buys shares because Cathie Wood and her team have tremendous foresight when spotting future trends. The email notification I received from ARK Invest Thursday trades made my jaw drop. PLTR was added across the board to theirsix active ETFswith the following allocations:</p><p><blockquote>我知道有些读者不喜欢我在ARK Invest讨论有关PLTR的交易，所以我提前道歉。我向我冒犯的任何人道歉。就我个人而言，我喜欢ARK Invest购买股票，因为Cathie Wood和她的团队在发现未来趋势时具有巨大的远见。我从ARK Invest周四交易收到的电子邮件通知让我瞠目结舌。PLTR被全面添加到他们的六只主动ETF中，分配如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK)2.29 million shares</li> <li>ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(BATS:ARKG)1.72 million shares</li> <li>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKW)587,000 shares</li> <li>ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ)559,000 shares</li> <li>ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)370,000 shares</li> <li>ARK Space Exploration ETF(BATS:ARKX)61,000 shares</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3bdea6effd5d278e32854efcca02047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: ARK Invest)</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA：ARKK)229万股</li><li>方舟基因组革命多板块ETF(BATS：ARKG)172万股</li><li>ARK下一代互联网ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKW）587,000股</li><li>ARK自主技术与机器人ETF(BATS：ARKQ)559,000股</li><li>方舟金融科技创新ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）370,000股</li><li>方舟太空探索ETF(BATS：ARKX)61,000股</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：方舟投资）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> PLTR is now the 15th largest holding in ARKK, 40th in ARKQ, 17th in ARKQ, 45th in ARKG, 44th in ARKF, and 38th in ARKX. Collectively, ARK Invest holds 32,080,168 shares across these funds, which is a market value of $798.8 million. I view this as very bullish, and I am happy to add to my position along with ARK Invest.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR目前是ARKK第15大控股公司、ARKQ第40大控股公司、ARKQ第17大控股公司、ARKG第45大控股公司、ARKF第44大控股公司和ARKX第38大控股公司。ARK Invest总共持有这些基金的32,080,168股股票，市值为7.988亿美元。我认为这非常乐观，我很高兴与ARK Invest一起增持我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I continuously increase how bullish I am on PLTR. I have purchased shares under $10, above $28, and I plan on continuing to purchase shares in the future. I honestly believe PLTR is going to become one of the most important software companies of the decade. I want to say that they will become the most important software company, but it's hard to say that considering Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). In Q2 2021, revenue grew 49% YoY, total contract value booked increased 175% YoY, Q2 commercial customer count increased 61% in the first half of 2021, and 62 deals were closed that were at least $1 million in revenue while 30 were at least $5 million, and 21 were at least $10 million. PLTR raised its 2021 guidance for adjusted free cash flow by 100%, and I think they're staying conservative. PLTR continues to create the software of tomorrow, and I believe their meta-constellation project could become their most important project to date. PLTR isn't a trade, it's a long-term investment, and if you have time on your side, I believe this will become a multi-bagger.</p><p><blockquote>我不断增加我对PLTR的看好程度。我已经购买了10美元以下、28美元以上的股票，并计划在未来继续购买股票。我真诚地相信PLTR将成为十年来最重要的软件公司之一。我想说他们将成为最重要的软件公司，但考虑到微软（纳斯达克：MSFT），就很难说了。2021年第二季度，收入同比增长49%，预订合同总价值同比增长175%，2021年上半年第二季度商业客户数量增长61%，完成62笔交易，收入至少为100万美元，其中30笔交易至少为100万美元。500万美元，21笔至少为1000万美元。PLTR将2021年调整后自由现金流指引提高了100%，我认为他们仍然保持保守。PLTR继续创造未来的软件，我相信他们的元星座项目可能会成为他们迄今为止最重要的项目。PLTR不是一项交易，而是一项长期投资，如果你有时间，我相信这将成为一个多方投资者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Lord Of Growth, ARK Invest, And Becoming Lord Of The Market<blockquote>Palantir：增长之王、方舟投资并成为市场之王</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Lord Of Growth, ARK Invest, And Becoming Lord Of The Market<blockquote>Palantir：增长之王、方舟投资并成为市场之王</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir increased its full-year 2021 adjusted free cash flow outlook by 100% and is now projecting $300+ million while maintaining its 30%+ annual revenue growth through 2025.</li> <li>Palantir added 20 new customers in Q2 2021, its average revenue per customer increased 19% to $7.9 million, and average revenue per top 20 customers grew 36% to $39 million.</li> <li>Palantir ended Q2 2021 with $3.4 billion in total remaining deal value, which was an increase of 63% YoY.</li> <li>I believe Palantir is being conservative, and based on its growth rates, will exceed $400 million in Q3 2021 revenue and produce another earnings beat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b3fc1e0f8404557baa075b9aa8d122\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir将2021年全年调整后自由现金流预期提高了100%，目前预计将达到3亿美元以上，同时到2025年保持30%以上的年收入增长。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第二季度增加了20个新客户，每个客户的平均收入增长了19%，达到790万美元，前20名客户的平均收入增长了36%，达到3900万美元。</li><li>截至2021年第二季度，Palantir的剩余交易总额为34亿美元，同比增长63%。</li><li>我认为Palantir是保守的，根据其增长率，2021年第三季度的收入将超过4亿美元，并再次实现盈利增长。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Only time will tell if the bears concede and reverse their stance on Palantir(NYSE:PLTR). It's been a tug of war, and commentators have made statements such as \"I think it's too much of a black box to get a real read on the business.\"PLTR is coming out of earnings season as the lord of the earnings as revenue increased by 49% YoY, and PLTR raises its 2021 full-year outlook.ARK Invest took the opportunity to add 5.2 million shares on Thursday after earnings were announced through six individual purchases throughout the day. I continuously become more bullish on PLTR after each earnings report, and Q2 2021 didn't disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>只有时间才能证明空头是否会让步并改变对Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）的立场。这是一场拉锯战，评论员们发表了诸如“我认为这是一个太多的黑匣子，无法真正了解该业务。”PLTR即将结束财报季，成为财报之王，营收同比增长49%，PLTR上调了2021年全年预期。周四，ARK Invest趁机增持了520万股全天六次单独购买。每份收益报告发布后，我不断更加看好PLTR，2021年第二季度也没有让人失望。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, software companies have experienced an extraordinary bull market as the evolution of technology transformed the business landscape. Regardless of the sector, evolution never stops, and in 2021, technology has become the backbone of enterprise. I wish the bears would get past the fact that PLTR can't discuss part of its business as it's a matter of national security. Being a top vendor with the United States government is positive, and all that matters are the numbers being reported. As investors, we don't need the details of what PLTR is doing with the military. The United States Government and PLTR both report what entities are doing business with PLTR, the contract duration, and the monetary value of the contract. The second jab bears would make against PLTR was the lack of commercial contracts. After the first six months of 2021, PLTR has put this to bed as its commercial customer count grew by 20% QoQ while commercial revenue increased 28% YoY. PLTR is becoming one of the most important software companies of the decade, and we have only begun to scratch the surface.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的十年里，随着技术的发展改变了商业格局，软件公司经历了一场非同寻常的牛市。无论哪个领域，进化从未停止，2021年，技术已经成为企业的支柱。我希望看空者能够忘记PLTR不能讨论其部分业务的事实，因为这关系到国家安全。成为美国政府的顶级供应商是积极的，重要的是报告的数字。作为投资者，我们不需要PLTR与军方合作的细节。美国政府和PLTR都报告了哪些实体与PLTR开展业务、合同期限和合同的货币价值。空头对PLTR的第二个攻击是缺乏商业合同。2021年前六个月后，PLTR已经解决了这一问题，其商业客户数量环比增长20%，而商业收入同比增长28%。PLTR正在成为十年来最重要的软件公司之一，而我们才刚刚开始触及表面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99232f45d9109619c997717e11f2cba2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir continues to strengthen its government business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir继续加强其政府业务</b></blockquote></p><p> As an American, I am proud to be a shareholder of PLTR. We need more companies aligned with providing the best solutions possible to our government agencies. PLTR continues to strengthen its relationship with the most powerful government globally, which is mutually beneficial. The United States Government gets the most sophisticated software applications while PLTR generates millions in additional revenue each quarter. Going back to PLTR's previous quarterly presentations, I mapped out the government business sector's growth. I would ask why the stigma of being a \"black box\" diminishes PLTR as the numbers are reported, and that's what matters?</p><p><blockquote>作为一名美国人，我很自豪能成为PLTR的股东。我们需要更多的公司为我们的政府机构提供最佳解决方案。PLTR继续加强与全球最强大政府的关系，这是互利的。美国政府获得最复杂的软件应用程序，而PLTR每季度产生数百万美元的额外收入。回到PLTR之前的季度演示，我描绘了政府商业部门的增长情况。我会问，为什么当数字被报道时，作为“黑匣子”的耻辱会削弱PLTR，这才是最重要的？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7325d0dd43a97bbc6426a6f2bda7b460\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the past seven quarters, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue from its government contracts by 139.18% ($135 million). PLTR's average quarterly growth rate has been 13.24% as they have added an average of $19.29 million in government contract value to its revenue since Q3 2019. When looking at the trailing twelve months (TTM) quarterly, PLTR has increased its TTM government revenue by $335 million (73.14%) over the past year. PLTR's TTM revenue at the end of Q2 2021 has grown to $793 million from $458 million in Q2 2020. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's government revenue TTM has grown by an average of $83.75 million with an average growth rate of 18.29% QoQ.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的七个季度中，PLTR来自政府合同的季度收入增长了139.18%（1.35亿美元）。PLTR的平均季度增长率为13.24%，自2019年第三季度以来，他们的收入平均增加了1929万美元的政府合同价值。从过去12个月(TTM)季度来看，PLTR的TTM政府收入在过去一年中增加了3.35亿美元(73.14%)。PLTR截至2021年第二季度末的TTM收入已从2020年第二季度的4.58亿美元增长至7.93亿美元。过去四个季度，PLTR的政府收入TTM平均增长8375万美元，环比平均增长率为18.29%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It's perplexing how individuals neglect to give PLTR's government business the credit it deserves. InQ2 2021, PLTR signed new deals with the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard, including a two-year $100 million deal with SOCOM. PLTR also signed new contracts with HHS and the CDC. This included expanding PLTR's efforts to help the U.S. manage vaccine production, distribution, and administration. Using the Federal Procurement Data System as a source of reference, PLTR had inked 17 government contracts that had been uploaded. Reading through the agencies PLTR supports, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Internal Revenue Service, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Food and Drug Administration, PLTR continues to solidify itself as one of the premier vendors to good old Uncle Sam.</p><p><blockquote>令人费解的是，个人如何忽视给予PLTR的政府业务应有的信任。2021年第二季度，PLTR与美国陆军、空军和海岸警卫队签署了新协议，其中包括与SOCOM签订的为期两年、价值1亿美元的协议。PLTR还与HHS和CDC签署了新合同。这包括扩大PLTR帮助美国管理疫苗生产、分销和管理的努力。PLTR以联邦采购数据系统为参考来源，签署了17份已上传的政府合同。通过阅读PLTR支持的机构，包括美国海岸警卫队、证券交易委员会、国税局、联邦航空管理局和食品药品监督管理局，PLTR继续巩固自己作为优秀供应商之一的地位。老山姆大叔。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cfe7d516eccbc1e388ce2c9d9bf22d\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"239\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据系统）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's commercial business is becoming larger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的商业业务规模越来越大</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the major complaints and criticisms from the bears has been the lack of commercial business PLTR generated. Many had subscribed to the logic that building the rapport on the commercial side would be challenging because PLTR was a black box, and nobody knew what they did. Many had indicated that this wouldn't be a worthwhile investment unless PLTR could prove that their software could be utilized and implemented on the commercial side. It turns out that PLTR continues to blow holes directly through this theory as the commercial side continues to grow.</p><p><blockquote>空头的主要抱怨和批评之一是PLTR产生的商业业务的缺乏。许多人赞同这样的逻辑，即在商业方面建立融洽的关系将具有挑战性，因为PLTR是一个黑匣子，没有人知道他们在做什么。许多人表示，除非PLTR能够证明他们的软件可以在商业方面得到利用和实施，否则这不是一项值得的投资。事实证明，随着商业方面的不断增长，PLTR继续直接突破这一理论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46599961a2896393d62866415c1041ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2 2021, PLTR had increased their commercial revenue quarterly by $50 million (53.2%) over the past seven quarters. PLTR has experienced QoQ growth at an average rate of $7.14 million or 7.6%. At the end of Q2 2020, PLTR had generated $443 million in revenue from its commercial business contracts for the TTM. Over the past year, this had increased by $93 million or 21%, as commercial accounted for $536 million of PLTR's revenue in the TTM. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's commercial TTM revenue has increased at an average of $23.25 million or 4.91% QoQ.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第二季度末，PLTR的商业收入在过去七个季度中每季度增加了5000万美元（53.2%）。PLTR的平均环比增长为714万美元，即7.6%。截至2020年第二季度末，PLTR已从TTM商业业务合同中创造了4.43亿美元的收入。在过去的一年里，这一数字增加了9300万美元，即21%，因为商业收入占PLTR在TTM收入的5.36亿美元。过去四个季度，PLTR的商业TTM收入平均增长2325万美元，环比增长4.91%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451518a91166bccfcbbc7d6207923cb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir continues to be a growth machine from contracts down to its customers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir继续成为从合同到客户的增长机器</b></blockquote></p><p> Business is flourishing at PLTR as its Q2 and first half 2021 revenue both increased by 49% YoY. In Q2 2021, PLTR's overall revenue increased from $252 million ($112 million commercial, $140 million government) to $376 million ($144 million commercial, $232 million government). For the first half of 2021, PLTR has generated $717 million in revenue compared to $481 million for the same period in 2020, increasing $236 million. Over the past seven quarters, PLTR's total revenue has increased at an average rate of $26.43 million or 10.32% QoQ.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR业务蓬勃发展，2021年第二季度和上半年收入均同比增长49%。2021年第二季度，PLTR的总收入从2.52亿美元（商业1.12亿美元，政府1.4亿美元）增加到3.76亿美元（商业1.44亿美元，政府2.32亿美元）。2021年上半年，PLTR创造了7.17亿美元的收入，而2020年同期为4.81亿美元，增加了2.36亿美元。过去七个季度，PLTR的总收入平均增长2643万美元，环比增长10.32%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c45075d03249129a54c5e54c77da358\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Every important metric is increasing for PLTR, and the bears should pay attention to these metrics. In Q2, PLTR added 20 new customers as their total commercial customer count increased 13% QoQ to 169. Since the close of 2020, in the first half of 2021, PLTR has increased its commercial customers by 21.58%. PLTR closed Q2 with $3.4 billion in total remaining deal value, which was an increase of 63% YoY, growing from $2.1 billion at the end of Q2 2020. PLTR's average revenue generated per customer has increased 19% from $6.6 million to $7.9 million for the TTM at the end of Q2 2021, compared to Q2 2020. What's more impressive is the growth throughout PLTR's largest customers. PLTR's average revenue per top 20 customers has increased by 36%, from $29 million to $39 million YoY for the TTM.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR的每一个重要指标都在增加，空头应该关注这些指标。第二季度，PLTR增加了20个新客户，其商业客户总数环比增长13%至169个。自2020年底以来，2021年上半年，PLTR的商业客户增长了21.58%。PLTR在第二季度结束时的剩余交易总额为34亿美元，同比增长63%，较2020年第二季度末的21亿美元有所增长。与2020年第二季度相比，截至2021年第二季度末，PLTR TTM每位客户的平均收入增长了19%，从660万美元增至790万美元。更令人印象深刻的是PLTR最大客户的增长。PLTR每前20名客户的平均收入同比增长了36%，从2900万美元增至3900万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Many companies that are considered growth companies have impressive revenue gains, but what separates PLTR from others is their increasing margins and adjusted free cash flow. As PLTR gains customers and signed contracts, their margins have been improving, which has led to positive free cash flow. PLTR's adjusted gross margin is 82%, and its contribution margin is 58%. In Q2 2021, PLTR produced $117 million in adjusted operating income, which increased $88 million (303.45%) YoY. PLTR's adjusted operating margin came in at 31% compared to their 23% guidance level. In the first half of 2020, PLTR reported -$232 million of adjusted free cash flow. Over the past year, PLTR has made tremendous progress as their adjusted free cash flow in the first half of 2021 was $201 million, which represented a margin of 28%.</p><p><blockquote>许多被认为是成长型公司的公司都有令人印象深刻的收入增长，但PLTR与其他公司的区别在于其不断增长的利润率和调整后的自由现金流。随着PLTR赢得客户并签署合同，他们的利润率一直在提高，从而带来了正的自由现金流。PLTR调整后毛利率为82%，贡献率为58%。2021年第二季度，PLTR调整后营业收入为1.17亿美元，同比增长8800万美元（303.45%）。PLTR调整后的营业利润率为31%，而指导水平为23%。2020年上半年，PLTR报告调整后自由现金流为-2.32亿美元。在过去的一年里，PLTR取得了巨大进展，2021年上半年调整后的自由现金流为2.01亿美元，利润率为28%。</blockquote></p><p> PLTR is growing its commercial customers, gaining government contracts, increasing its revenue quarterly, and is free cash flow positive. PLTR raised its 2021 full-year guidance and confirmed the theory by many PLTR bulls that their guidance was conservative. PLTR increased its adjusted free cash flow guidance by 100% as it increased from $150 million to $300 million for 2021. PLTR is still projecting a 30% revenue growth rate for 2021 and on an annual basis through 2025. PLTR has set the bar for Q3 2021 at $385 million for total revenue, which would be a QoQ increase of $9 million (2.4%) and a YoY increase of $95 million (32.76%).</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在增加其商业客户，获得政府合同，增加季度收入，并且自由现金流为正。PLTR上调了2021年全年指引，并证实了许多PLTR多头的理论，即他们的指引是保守的。PLTR将调整后的自由现金流指引从2021年的1.5亿美元增加到3亿美元，提高了100%。PLTR仍预计2021年收入增长率为30%，到2025年每年增长率为30%。PLTR将2021年第三季度的总收入设定为3.85亿美元，环比增长900万美元（2.4%），同比增长9500万美元（32.76%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28cf6fb10eaa83fcdee57a7faa0f478e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is most likely understating Q3 2021 revenue estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir很可能低估了2021年第三季度的收入预期</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR guided for $385 million revenue in Q3 2021. I will make an educated prediction and say this is low, and the actual number will be closer to $406 million. Going back to Q3 2019, PLTR has grown its commercial customer quarterly revenue at an average rate of 7.14% QoQ. PLTR's government revenue has increased at an average rate of 13.34% QoQ since Q3 2019. Putting these growth rates to the side for a moment, PLTR has inked five new contracts in Q3 2021 according to the Federal Procurement Data System for a total contract value of $102.82 million, of which $14.78 million are current action obligations. This indicates that growth will be similar to previous quarters on the government side as this is on pace with Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR预计2021年第三季度收入为3.85亿美元。我会做一个有根据的预测，说这个数字很低，实际数字会更接近4.06亿美元。回到2019年第三季度，PLTR的商业客户季度收入平均环比增长7.14%。自2019年第三季度以来，PLTR的政府收入平均环比增长13.34%。暂时抛开这些增长率不谈，根据联邦采购数据系统的数据，PLTR在2021年第三季度签署了五份新合同，合同总价值为1.0282亿美元，其中1,478万美元是当前行动义务。这表明政府方面的增长将与前几个季度相似，因为这与Q2 2021保持同步。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c231bdbc525594bc8fec4ab79cf996cb\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"96\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据系统）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Assuming that PLTR's growth rates follow its previous trend and I use a conservative estimate of 5% on the commercial side and 10% on the government side, PLTR would generate $151.20 million in revenue from the commercial business and $255.20 million from the government business for a total of $406.40 million in total Q3 revenue. Using the same methodology, PLTR would generate $439.48 million in Q4 2021 total revenue placing their total annual revenue for 2021 at $1.562.88 billion. If this works out, PLTR's prediction of 30% plus revenue growth in 2021 would be an understatement as its revenue would grow by $469.88 million YoY or 42.99%. I would also assume that the increased guidance for the adjusted free cash flow of $300+ million would be on the low end.</p><p><blockquote>假设PLTR的增长率遵循之前的趋势，我保守估计商业方面为5%，政府方面为10%，PLTR将从商业业务中产生1.512亿美元的收入，从政府业务中产生2.552亿美元的收入，第三季度总收入为4.064亿美元。使用相同的方法，PLTR将在2021年第四季度产生4.3948亿美元的总收入，使其2021年的总收入达到15.628.8亿美元。如果实现这一目标，PLTR对2021年收入增长30%以上的预测将是一种保守的说法，因为其收入将同比增长4.6988亿美元，即42.99%。我还假设调整后自由现金流3亿美元以上的增加指导将处于低端。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30733619dbdb3bff53f3348208a9d46c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"247\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ARK Invest loaded the boat and purchased 5.2 million shares after Thursday's earnings were released</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARK Invest在周四财报发布后买入520万股</b></blockquote></p><p> I know that some readers dislike when I discuss the trades over at ARK Invest regarding PLTR, so I will apologize in advance. I apologize to anyone who I offend. Personally, I love when ARK Invest buys shares because Cathie Wood and her team have tremendous foresight when spotting future trends. The email notification I received from ARK Invest Thursday trades made my jaw drop. PLTR was added across the board to theirsix active ETFswith the following allocations:</p><p><blockquote>我知道有些读者不喜欢我在ARK Invest讨论有关PLTR的交易，所以我提前道歉。我向我冒犯的任何人道歉。就我个人而言，我喜欢ARK Invest购买股票，因为Cathie Wood和她的团队在发现未来趋势时具有巨大的远见。我从ARK Invest周四交易收到的电子邮件通知让我瞠目结舌。PLTR被全面添加到他们的六只主动ETF中，分配如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK)2.29 million shares</li> <li>ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(BATS:ARKG)1.72 million shares</li> <li>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKW)587,000 shares</li> <li>ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ)559,000 shares</li> <li>ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)370,000 shares</li> <li>ARK Space Exploration ETF(BATS:ARKX)61,000 shares</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3bdea6effd5d278e32854efcca02047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: ARK Invest)</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA：ARKK)229万股</li><li>方舟基因组革命多板块ETF(BATS：ARKG)172万股</li><li>ARK下一代互联网ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKW）587,000股</li><li>ARK自主技术与机器人ETF(BATS：ARKQ)559,000股</li><li>方舟金融科技创新ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）370,000股</li><li>方舟太空探索ETF(BATS：ARKX)61,000股</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：方舟投资）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> PLTR is now the 15th largest holding in ARKK, 40th in ARKQ, 17th in ARKQ, 45th in ARKG, 44th in ARKF, and 38th in ARKX. Collectively, ARK Invest holds 32,080,168 shares across these funds, which is a market value of $798.8 million. I view this as very bullish, and I am happy to add to my position along with ARK Invest.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR目前是ARKK第15大控股公司、ARKQ第40大控股公司、ARKQ第17大控股公司、ARKG第45大控股公司、ARKF第44大控股公司和ARKX第38大控股公司。ARK Invest总共持有这些基金的32,080,168股股票，市值为7.988亿美元。我认为这非常乐观，我很高兴与ARK Invest一起增持我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I continuously increase how bullish I am on PLTR. I have purchased shares under $10, above $28, and I plan on continuing to purchase shares in the future. I honestly believe PLTR is going to become one of the most important software companies of the decade. I want to say that they will become the most important software company, but it's hard to say that considering Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). In Q2 2021, revenue grew 49% YoY, total contract value booked increased 175% YoY, Q2 commercial customer count increased 61% in the first half of 2021, and 62 deals were closed that were at least $1 million in revenue while 30 were at least $5 million, and 21 were at least $10 million. PLTR raised its 2021 guidance for adjusted free cash flow by 100%, and I think they're staying conservative. PLTR continues to create the software of tomorrow, and I believe their meta-constellation project could become their most important project to date. PLTR isn't a trade, it's a long-term investment, and if you have time on your side, I believe this will become a multi-bagger.</p><p><blockquote>我不断增加我对PLTR的看好程度。我已经购买了10美元以下、28美元以上的股票，并计划在未来继续购买股票。我真诚地相信PLTR将成为十年来最重要的软件公司之一。我想说他们将成为最重要的软件公司，但考虑到微软（纳斯达克：MSFT），就很难说了。2021年第二季度，收入同比增长49%，预订合同总价值同比增长175%，2021年上半年第二季度商业客户数量增长61%，完成62笔交易，收入至少为100万美元，其中30笔交易至少为100万美元。500万美元，21笔至少为1000万美元。PLTR将2021年调整后自由现金流指引提高了100%，我认为他们仍然保持保守。PLTR继续创造未来的软件，我相信他们的元星座项目可能会成为他们迄今为止最重要的项目。PLTR不是一项交易，而是一项长期投资，如果你有时间，我相信这将成为一个多方投资者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449478-palantir-lord-of-growth-ark-invest-lord-of-market\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449478-palantir-lord-of-growth-ark-invest-lord-of-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195810252","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir increased its full-year 2021 adjusted free cash flow outlook by 100% and is now projecting $300+ million while maintaining its 30%+ annual revenue growth through 2025.\nPalantir added 20 new customers in Q2 2021, its average revenue per customer increased 19% to $7.9 million, and average revenue per top 20 customers grew 36% to $39 million.\nPalantir ended Q2 2021 with $3.4 billion in total remaining deal value, which was an increase of 63% YoY.\nI believe Palantir is being conservative, and based on its growth rates, will exceed $400 million in Q3 2021 revenue and produce another earnings beat.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nOnly time will tell if the bears concede and reverse their stance on Palantir(NYSE:PLTR). It's been a tug of war, and commentators have made statements such as \"I think it's too much of a black box to get a real read on the business.\"PLTR is coming out of earnings season as the lord of the earnings as revenue increased by 49% YoY, and PLTR raises its 2021 full-year outlook.ARK Invest took the opportunity to add 5.2 million shares on Thursday after earnings were announced through six individual purchases throughout the day. I continuously become more bullish on PLTR after each earnings report, and Q2 2021 didn't disappoint.\nOver the last decade, software companies have experienced an extraordinary bull market as the evolution of technology transformed the business landscape. Regardless of the sector, evolution never stops, and in 2021, technology has become the backbone of enterprise. I wish the bears would get past the fact that PLTR can't discuss part of its business as it's a matter of national security. Being a top vendor with the United States government is positive, and all that matters are the numbers being reported. As investors, we don't need the details of what PLTR is doing with the military. The United States Government and PLTR both report what entities are doing business with PLTR, the contract duration, and the monetary value of the contract. The second jab bears would make against PLTR was the lack of commercial contracts. After the first six months of 2021, PLTR has put this to bed as its commercial customer count grew by 20% QoQ while commercial revenue increased 28% YoY. PLTR is becoming one of the most important software companies of the decade, and we have only begun to scratch the surface.\n(Source: Palantir)\nPalantir continues to strengthen its government business\nAs an American, I am proud to be a shareholder of PLTR. We need more companies aligned with providing the best solutions possible to our government agencies. PLTR continues to strengthen its relationship with the most powerful government globally, which is mutually beneficial. The United States Government gets the most sophisticated software applications while PLTR generates millions in additional revenue each quarter. Going back to PLTR's previous quarterly presentations, I mapped out the government business sector's growth. I would ask why the stigma of being a \"black box\" diminishes PLTR as the numbers are reported, and that's what matters?\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nOver the past seven quarters, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue from its government contracts by 139.18% ($135 million). PLTR's average quarterly growth rate has been 13.24% as they have added an average of $19.29 million in government contract value to its revenue since Q3 2019. When looking at the trailing twelve months (TTM) quarterly, PLTR has increased its TTM government revenue by $335 million (73.14%) over the past year. PLTR's TTM revenue at the end of Q2 2021 has grown to $793 million from $458 million in Q2 2020. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's government revenue TTM has grown by an average of $83.75 million with an average growth rate of 18.29% QoQ.\nIt's perplexing how individuals neglect to give PLTR's government business the credit it deserves. InQ2 2021, PLTR signed new deals with the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard, including a two-year $100 million deal with SOCOM. PLTR also signed new contracts with HHS and the CDC. This included expanding PLTR's efforts to help the U.S. manage vaccine production, distribution, and administration. Using the Federal Procurement Data System as a source of reference, PLTR had inked 17 government contracts that had been uploaded. Reading through the agencies PLTR supports, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Internal Revenue Service, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Food and Drug Administration, PLTR continues to solidify itself as one of the premier vendors to good old Uncle Sam.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)\nPalantir's commercial business is becoming larger\nOne of the major complaints and criticisms from the bears has been the lack of commercial business PLTR generated. Many had subscribed to the logic that building the rapport on the commercial side would be challenging because PLTR was a black box, and nobody knew what they did. Many had indicated that this wouldn't be a worthwhile investment unless PLTR could prove that their software could be utilized and implemented on the commercial side. It turns out that PLTR continues to blow holes directly through this theory as the commercial side continues to grow.\n(Source: Palantir)\nAt the end of Q2 2021, PLTR had increased their commercial revenue quarterly by $50 million (53.2%) over the past seven quarters. PLTR has experienced QoQ growth at an average rate of $7.14 million or 7.6%. At the end of Q2 2020, PLTR had generated $443 million in revenue from its commercial business contracts for the TTM. Over the past year, this had increased by $93 million or 21%, as commercial accounted for $536 million of PLTR's revenue in the TTM. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's commercial TTM revenue has increased at an average of $23.25 million or 4.91% QoQ.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nPalantir continues to be a growth machine from contracts down to its customers\nBusiness is flourishing at PLTR as its Q2 and first half 2021 revenue both increased by 49% YoY. In Q2 2021, PLTR's overall revenue increased from $252 million ($112 million commercial, $140 million government) to $376 million ($144 million commercial, $232 million government). For the first half of 2021, PLTR has generated $717 million in revenue compared to $481 million for the same period in 2020, increasing $236 million. Over the past seven quarters, PLTR's total revenue has increased at an average rate of $26.43 million or 10.32% QoQ.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nEvery important metric is increasing for PLTR, and the bears should pay attention to these metrics. In Q2, PLTR added 20 new customers as their total commercial customer count increased 13% QoQ to 169. Since the close of 2020, in the first half of 2021, PLTR has increased its commercial customers by 21.58%. PLTR closed Q2 with $3.4 billion in total remaining deal value, which was an increase of 63% YoY, growing from $2.1 billion at the end of Q2 2020. PLTR's average revenue generated per customer has increased 19% from $6.6 million to $7.9 million for the TTM at the end of Q2 2021, compared to Q2 2020. What's more impressive is the growth throughout PLTR's largest customers. PLTR's average revenue per top 20 customers has increased by 36%, from $29 million to $39 million YoY for the TTM.\nMany companies that are considered growth companies have impressive revenue gains, but what separates PLTR from others is their increasing margins and adjusted free cash flow. As PLTR gains customers and signed contracts, their margins have been improving, which has led to positive free cash flow. PLTR's adjusted gross margin is 82%, and its contribution margin is 58%. In Q2 2021, PLTR produced $117 million in adjusted operating income, which increased $88 million (303.45%) YoY. PLTR's adjusted operating margin came in at 31% compared to their 23% guidance level. In the first half of 2020, PLTR reported -$232 million of adjusted free cash flow. Over the past year, PLTR has made tremendous progress as their adjusted free cash flow in the first half of 2021 was $201 million, which represented a margin of 28%.\nPLTR is growing its commercial customers, gaining government contracts, increasing its revenue quarterly, and is free cash flow positive. PLTR raised its 2021 full-year guidance and confirmed the theory by many PLTR bulls that their guidance was conservative. PLTR increased its adjusted free cash flow guidance by 100% as it increased from $150 million to $300 million for 2021. PLTR is still projecting a 30% revenue growth rate for 2021 and on an annual basis through 2025. PLTR has set the bar for Q3 2021 at $385 million for total revenue, which would be a QoQ increase of $9 million (2.4%) and a YoY increase of $95 million (32.76%).\n(Source: Palantir)\nPalantir is most likely understating Q3 2021 revenue estimates\nPLTR guided for $385 million revenue in Q3 2021. I will make an educated prediction and say this is low, and the actual number will be closer to $406 million. Going back to Q3 2019, PLTR has grown its commercial customer quarterly revenue at an average rate of 7.14% QoQ. PLTR's government revenue has increased at an average rate of 13.34% QoQ since Q3 2019. Putting these growth rates to the side for a moment, PLTR has inked five new contracts in Q3 2021 according to the Federal Procurement Data System for a total contract value of $102.82 million, of which $14.78 million are current action obligations. This indicates that growth will be similar to previous quarters on the government side as this is on pace with Q2 2021.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)\nAssuming that PLTR's growth rates follow its previous trend and I use a conservative estimate of 5% on the commercial side and 10% on the government side, PLTR would generate $151.20 million in revenue from the commercial business and $255.20 million from the government business for a total of $406.40 million in total Q3 revenue. Using the same methodology, PLTR would generate $439.48 million in Q4 2021 total revenue placing their total annual revenue for 2021 at $1.562.88 billion. If this works out, PLTR's prediction of 30% plus revenue growth in 2021 would be an understatement as its revenue would grow by $469.88 million YoY or 42.99%. I would also assume that the increased guidance for the adjusted free cash flow of $300+ million would be on the low end.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nARK Invest loaded the boat and purchased 5.2 million shares after Thursday's earnings were released\nI know that some readers dislike when I discuss the trades over at ARK Invest regarding PLTR, so I will apologize in advance. I apologize to anyone who I offend. Personally, I love when ARK Invest buys shares because Cathie Wood and her team have tremendous foresight when spotting future trends. The email notification I received from ARK Invest Thursday trades made my jaw drop. PLTR was added across the board to theirsix active ETFswith the following allocations:\n\nARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK)2.29 million shares\nARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(BATS:ARKG)1.72 million shares\nARK Next Generation Internet ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKW)587,000 shares\nARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ)559,000 shares\nARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)370,000 shares\nARK Space Exploration ETF(BATS:ARKX)61,000 shares\n\n(Source: ARK Invest)\nPLTR is now the 15th largest holding in ARKK, 40th in ARKQ, 17th in ARKQ, 45th in ARKG, 44th in ARKF, and 38th in ARKX. Collectively, ARK Invest holds 32,080,168 shares across these funds, which is a market value of $798.8 million. I view this as very bullish, and I am happy to add to my position along with ARK Invest.\nConclusion\nI continuously increase how bullish I am on PLTR. I have purchased shares under $10, above $28, and I plan on continuing to purchase shares in the future. I honestly believe PLTR is going to become one of the most important software companies of the decade. I want to say that they will become the most important software company, but it's hard to say that considering Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). In Q2 2021, revenue grew 49% YoY, total contract value booked increased 175% YoY, Q2 commercial customer count increased 61% in the first half of 2021, and 62 deals were closed that were at least $1 million in revenue while 30 were at least $5 million, and 21 were at least $10 million. PLTR raised its 2021 guidance for adjusted free cash flow by 100%, and I think they're staying conservative. PLTR continues to create the software of tomorrow, and I believe their meta-constellation project could become their most important project to date. PLTR isn't a trade, it's a long-term investment, and if you have time on your side, I believe this will become a multi-bagger.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/833708505"}
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