Please like_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-17

Please like

JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出市场牛市和熊市案例</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":833908735,"tweetId":"833908735","gmtCreate":1629193760627,"gmtModify":1633686678163,"author":{"id":4090202836844260,"idStr":"4090202836844260","authorId":4090202836844260,"authorIdStr":"4090202836844260","name":"jhkaine","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like</body></html>","text":"Please like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833908735","repostId":1123297263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123297263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629192705,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1123297263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出市场牛市和熊市案例</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123297263","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltu","content":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.<blockquote>随着大多数银行发布道歉（见高盛和摩根士丹利），因为未能预测市场的融化，目前市场已将标准普尔指数从 2020 年 3 月的大流行底部推高了 100%，并且目前的交易价格创下历史新高，今天早上摩根大通（摩根大通是最直言不讳的银行之一）公布了牛市和熊市案例，其中包括该银行策略师认为将定义未来几个月市场的几项关键风险。</blockquote> BULL CASE:<blockquote>牛市案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Earnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li> <li>Accelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li> <li>Improving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li> <li>More stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T</li> <li>China growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li> <li>Improved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li> </ol> BEAR CASE:<blockquote><ol><li>盈利势头– 摩根大通首席股票策略师于 21 年 7 月 20 日将其每股收益预期上调至 2021 年 205 美元、2022 年 230 美元和 2023 年 250 美元；所有这些都超出了街头共识</li><li>加速回购- 截至 2021 年 8 月 6 日，已宣布的回购金额为 4770 亿美元，这意味着年化回购金额为 8000 亿美元，其金额仅次于 2018 年，超过 2019 年的 7020 亿美元。</li><li>改善COVID环境–这将促进消费者支出和就业增长；摩根大通引用了 Marko Kolanovic 的观点，即 50 个州中有 40 个州的有效生殖数量 (Rt) 正在下降</li><li>更多刺激-最有可能的是基础设施，可能是 5500 亿美元或约 4T 美元</li><li>中国增长重启– 中国可能决定增加更多财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助提振 RoW</li><li>改善劳动力市场– 这也将对国内生产总值产生积极、直接的影响。</li></ol>熊案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>COVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"</li> <li>Online schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li> <li>Fed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li> <li>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li> <li>Government Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li> </ol> RISKS:<blockquote><ol><li>COVID扩展/变异– 摩根大通表示，有证据表明 Delta 变异株对儿童的危害比其他毒株更大，18 岁以下人群的住院率是疫情中最高的（WaPo）；鉴于12岁以下儿童没有资格接种疫苗，摩根大通认为“我们可能会看到恢复封锁以保护儿童\"</li><li>网络学校教育– 鉴于对劳动力市场、无刺激支出和情绪的影响，推迟或取消面对面学习的举动对市场不利；</li><li>美联储政策失误– 该银行认为，现阶段美联储宣布缩减规模还为时过早，这可能意味着随着金融状况收紧，失业率不会达到2020年2月的水平；</li><li>中国的零新冠政策损害了全球经济增长- 中国关闭了世界第三繁忙的港口，以应对一个引发全球延误的积极案例，包括洛杉矶港，但总的来说，这一政策导致大多数经济学家下调了经济增长评级。</li><li>政府关门– 摩根大通表示，美国财政政策在整个疫情期间一直是推动力，但围绕基础设施和债务上限的斗争可能会导致另一次关闭；2011年关闭导致美国信用评级于2011年8月5日下调，引发SPX指数在8月/9月下跌1.29%，10年期国债收益率从8月4日的2.40%跌至9月30日的1.92%</li></ol>风险：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Geopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li> <li>US Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li> <li>Rates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li> <li>Financial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>地缘政治学– 最大的风险是阿富汗局势，它可能会蔓延到整个地区，可能会将美国/盟国、中国或俄罗斯的军队带到该地区或长期驻扎；充其量，这是一场引发难民潮的人道主义危机；</li><li>美国消费者未能提振经济- 虽然经济刺激和储蓄率一直备受关注，但水平的一个隐藏来源是先买后付（“BNPL”）的激增，它从2019年的95亿美元增长到2020年的190亿美元（美国消费者新闻与商业频道），鉴于苹果和并购等新进入者，这种增长可能会呈指数级增长。有证据表明，BNPL代表了隐性杠杆，因此可能会减弱储蓄率正常化的影响和/或成为整个经济信贷风险的新来源。</li><li>汇率/美元– 收益率飙升、美元暴跌或通胀预期大幅上升可能会导致股市波动；而且，</li><li>财务状况– 可能成为阻力，阻碍增长。</li></ol></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出市场牛市和熊市案例</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出市场牛市和熊市案例</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-17 17:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.<blockquote>随着大多数银行发布道歉（见高盛和摩根士丹利），因为未能预测市场的融化，目前市场已将标准普尔指数从 2020 年 3 月的大流行底部推高了 100%，并且目前的交易价格创下历史新高，今天早上摩根大通（摩根大通是最直言不讳的银行之一）公布了牛市和熊市案例，其中包括该银行策略师认为将定义未来几个月市场的几项关键风险。</blockquote> BULL CASE:<blockquote>牛市案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Earnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li> <li>Accelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li> <li>Improving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li> <li>More stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T</li> <li>China growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li> <li>Improved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li> </ol> BEAR CASE:<blockquote><ol><li>盈利势头– 摩根大通首席股票策略师于 21 年 7 月 20 日将其每股收益预期上调至 2021 年 205 美元、2022 年 230 美元和 2023 年 250 美元；所有这些都超出了街头共识</li><li>加速回购- 截至 2021 年 8 月 6 日，已宣布的回购金额为 4770 亿美元，这意味着年化回购金额为 8000 亿美元，其金额仅次于 2018 年，超过 2019 年的 7020 亿美元。</li><li>改善COVID环境–这将促进消费者支出和就业增长；摩根大通引用了 Marko Kolanovic 的观点，即 50 个州中有 40 个州的有效生殖数量 (Rt) 正在下降</li><li>更多刺激-最有可能的是基础设施，可能是 5500 亿美元或约 4T 美元</li><li>中国增长重启– 中国可能决定增加更多财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助提振 RoW</li><li>改善劳动力市场– 这也将对国内生产总值产生积极、直接的影响。</li></ol>熊案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>COVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"</li> <li>Online schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li> <li>Fed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li> <li>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li> <li>Government Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li> </ol> RISKS:<blockquote><ol><li>COVID扩展/变异– 摩根大通表示，有证据表明 Delta 变异株对儿童的危害比其他毒株更大，18 岁以下人群的住院率是疫情中最高的（WaPo）；鉴于12岁以下儿童没有资格接种疫苗，摩根大通认为“我们可能会看到恢复封锁以保护儿童\"</li><li>网络学校教育– 鉴于对劳动力市场、无刺激支出和情绪的影响，推迟或取消面对面学习的举动对市场不利；</li><li>美联储政策失误– 该银行认为，现阶段美联储宣布缩减规模还为时过早，这可能意味着随着金融状况收紧，失业率不会达到2020年2月的水平；</li><li>中国的零新冠政策损害了全球经济增长- 中国关闭了世界第三繁忙的港口，以应对一个引发全球延误的积极案例，包括洛杉矶港，但总的来说，这一政策导致大多数经济学家下调了经济增长评级。</li><li>政府关门– 摩根大通表示，美国财政政策在整个疫情期间一直是推动力，但围绕基础设施和债务上限的斗争可能会导致另一次关闭；2011年关闭导致美国信用评级于2011年8月5日下调，引发SPX指数在8月/9月下跌1.29%，10年期国债收益率从8月4日的2.40%跌至9月30日的1.92%</li></ol>风险：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Geopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li> <li>US Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li> <li>Rates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li> <li>Financial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>地缘政治学– 最大的风险是阿富汗局势，它可能会蔓延到整个地区，可能会将美国/盟国、中国或俄罗斯的军队带到该地区或长期驻扎；充其量，这是一场引发难民潮的人道主义危机；</li><li>美国消费者未能提振经济- 虽然经济刺激和储蓄率一直备受关注，但水平的一个隐藏来源是先买后付（“BNPL”）的激增，它从2019年的95亿美元增长到2020年的190亿美元（美国消费者新闻与商业频道），鉴于苹果和并购等新进入者，这种增长可能会呈指数级增长。有证据表明，BNPL代表了隐性杠杆，因此可能会减弱储蓄率正常化的影响和/或成为整个经济信贷风险的新来源。</li><li>汇率/美元– 收益率飙升、美元暴跌或通胀预期大幅上升可能会导致股市波动；而且，</li><li>财务状况– 可能成为阻力，阻碍增长。</li></ol></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123297263","content_text":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.\nBULL CASE:\n\nEarnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus\nAccelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn\nImproving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states\nMore stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T\nChina growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal & monetary stimulus helping boost RoW\nImproved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.\n\nBEAR CASE:\n\nCOVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"\nOnline schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;\nFed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;\nChina’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.\nGovernment Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30\n\nRISKS:\n\nGeopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;\nUS Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.\nRates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,\nFinancial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/833908735"}