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2021-08-24
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Tesla’s AI Day Made Self- Driving Technology Harder to Grasp. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉的人工智能日让自动驾驶技术变得更加难以掌握。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":834658369,"tweetId":"834658369","gmtCreate":1629800289351,"gmtModify":1631890572906,"author":{"id":3564622915347576,"idStr":"3564622915347576","authorId":3564622915347576,"authorIdStr":"3564622915347576","name":"meowx3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed62fdc20a8546ffe194561acd28b33f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Buy the dip!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Buy the dip!</p></body></html>","text":"Buy the dip!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834658369","repostId":1104587650,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104587650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629799518,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104587650?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 18:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s AI Day Made Self- Driving Technology Harder to Grasp. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉的人工智能日让自动驾驶技术变得更加难以掌握。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104587650","media":"Barrons","summary":"Evaluating car companies’ claims about self-driving cars is getting harder, rather than easier.\nManu","content":"<p>Evaluating car companies’ claims about self-driving cars is getting harder, rather than easier.</p><p><blockquote>评估汽车公司关于自动驾驶汽车的说法变得越来越困难，而不是越来越容易。</blockquote></p><p> Manufacturers are racing to build the best autonomous vehicles, but for people without advanced engineering degrees, judging who has the best systems has become nearly impossible. Autonomous-driving features are just too new and the systems are changing too rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>制造商正在竞相制造最好的自动驾驶汽车，但对于没有高级工程学位的人来说，判断谁拥有最好的系统几乎是不可能的。自动驾驶功能太新，系统变化太快。</blockquote></p><p> The job for investors, right now, is to understand exactly who is saying what about car makers’ competing autonomous-driving systems. Learning the bull and bear arguments is enough for now. Figuring out who is leading and what it means for the stocks of the car makers can come later.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在的任务是准确了解谁在谈论汽车制造商的自动驾驶系统。目前了解牛熊争论就足够了。弄清楚谁处于领先地位以及这对汽车制造商的股票意味着什么可以稍后进行。</blockquote></p><p> The highly anticipated Tesla(ticker: TSLA) A.I. Day was supposed to shed light on the topic of autonomous driving. Instead, it opened a Pandora’s box of questions that need answering.</p><p><blockquote>备受期待的特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）人工智能。戴本应阐明自动驾驶的话题。相反，它打开了一个潘多拉的盒子，里面有需要解答的问题。</blockquote></p><p> What investors really wanted to know was when drivers will be able to text and drive safely on highways without fear of getting a traffic ticket. That answer wasn’t forthcoming. Instead, investors were asked to digest the importance of computer- designed self-driving simulations, machine learning, and cloud-based A.I. training technology. The detail was arcane.</p><p><blockquote>投资者真正想知道的是，司机什么时候才能在高速公路上安全发短信和驾驶，而不用担心收到交通罚单。答案并没有出现。相反，投资者被要求消化计算机设计的自动驾驶模拟、机器学习和基于云的人工智能培训技术的重要性。这个细节很神秘。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla bulls, however, came away from the event blown away by Tesla’s A.I. prowess and the improvements to its autonomous-driving features. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu wrote Monday that Tesla is 10 years ahead of the competition in “real-world” artificial intelligence. He believes Tesla’s autonomous- driving subscription sales can generate about $23,000 in gross profit per vehicle over a 10-year span. That is significantly more than the roughly $7,000 in gross profit Tesla makes from selling a car.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉公牛队在比赛中被特斯拉的人工智能能力及其自动驾驶功能的改进所震撼。New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 周一撰文称，特斯拉在 “现实世界 ”人工智能领域的竞争中领先 10 年。他认为，特斯拉的自动驾驶订阅销售在 10 年内每辆车可产生约 23,000 美元的毛利润。这远远高于特斯拉销售一辆汽车所获得的大约 7,000 美元的毛利润。</blockquote></p><p> He rates Tesla stock at Buy and has a target of $900 for the stock price. Shares closed Monday at $706.30, up 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>他将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将股价目标定为 900 美元。周一股价收于 706.30 美元，上涨 3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla bears, on the other hand, are convinced that Tesla’s claims about self- driving cars are overstated and that other companies are doing a better job developing self-driving technology.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，特斯拉的看空者则坚信，特斯拉关于自动驾驶汽车的说法被夸大了，其他公司在开发自动驾驶技术方面做得更好。</blockquote></p><p> The bears’ belief is partly rooted in two reports from the research firm Guidehouse, which publishes automated-driving “leaderboards.” Tesla ranked dead last in the 2020 and 2021 reports.</p><p><blockquote>空头的信念部分源于研究公司 Guidehouse 的两份报告，该公司发布自动驾驶 “排行榜 ”。在2020年和2021年的报告中，特斯拉的死亡人数排名最后。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c9c6aae99c5231a325bf541cf4dca\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"915\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That might feel odd, given that Tesla CEO Elon Musk often talks about how advanced Tesla’s self-driving offerings are. But the Guidehouse rankings are partly based on vision systems and partnerships, two areas where Tesla doesn’t score well. The company doesn’t use laser-based radar, while other makers of self-driving cars do. And it doesn’t enter partnerships, doing everything in house.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会让人觉得奇怪，因为特斯拉首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）经常谈论特斯拉的自动驾驶产品有多先进。但 Guidehouse 的排名部分基于视觉系统和合作伙伴关系，而特斯拉在这两个领域的得分并不高。该公司不使用基于激光的雷达，而其他自动驾驶汽车制造商则使用。它也不建立合作伙伴关系，一切都在内部完成。</blockquote></p><p> It is possible that bulls and bears are both right and are talking past each other. Waymo, for instance, leads in the Guidehouse rankings. It has deployed fully autonomous robotaxis in Arizona. That is quite a feat.</p><p><blockquote>有可能多头和空头都是对的，并且正在互相谈论。例如，Waymo 在 Guidehouse 排名中处于领先地位。它已经在亚利桑那州部署了全自动机器人出租车。这是一个相当大的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s systems aren’t good enough to be robotaxis. They qualify as level 2 autonomy, which means drivers must be engaged at all times. But the systems enabling the Waymo robotaxi can cost upwards of $100,000 per vehicle. That is too pricey for consumer vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的系统还不足以成为机器人出租车。它们符合 2 级自动驾驶资格，这意味着司机必须始终参与其中。但支持 Waymo robotaxi 的系统每辆车的成本可能高达 10 万美元。这对于消费汽车来说太贵了。</blockquote></p><p> In October 2020,<i>Consumer Reports</i> ranked the automated-driving systems available to, well, consumers. Overall, Tesla’s automated driver system ranked second to General Motors(GM). Tesla scored highest on capability and ease of use, but ranked poorly on keeping the driver engaged.</p><p><blockquote>2020年10月，<i>消费者报告</i>对消费者可用的自动驾驶系统进行了排名。总体而言，特斯拉的自动驾驶系统仅次于通用汽车（GM）。特斯拉在功能和易用性方面得分最高，但在保持驾驶员参与度方面排名较差。</blockquote></p><p> One reason for that low score might be that Tesla’s automated-driving systems aren’t “hands free” solutions. Drivers need to keep their hands on, or touching, the steering wheel to keep the system on. There are “hands free” systems that use interior cameras to make sure a driver’s eyes are on the road at all times.</p><p><blockquote>得分低的一个原因可能是特斯拉的自动驾驶系统不是 “免提 ”解决方案。驾驶员需要将手放在或触摸方向盘上，以保持系统运行。有一些 “免提 ”系统利用车内摄像头确保驾驶员的眼睛始终注视着道路。</blockquote></p><p> Camera monitoring might be better than haptic steering-wheel feedback. That is a debate for car companies and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>摄像头监控可能比触觉方向盘反馈更好。对于汽车公司和监管机构来说，这是一场争论。</blockquote></p><p> Practically speaking, hands free and hands required isn’t the basis for competitive differentiation. All the systems on offer today, hands free or not, require drivers to be engaged 100% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，解放双手和需要双手并不是竞争差异化的基础。当今提供的所有系统，无论是否免提，都要求驾驶员100%的时间参与。</blockquote></p><p> Autonomous driving studies and reports will proliferate in coming years. Each will have different criteria for judging what is best. Eventually, investors will probably have to test out autonomous-driving systems for themselves. That way they won’t fall victim to ratings criteria that aren’t explicitly defined.</p><p><blockquote>自动驾驶研究和报告将在未来几年激增。每个人都有不同的标准来判断什么是最好的。最终，投资者可能不得不亲自测试自动驾驶系统。这样，他们就不会成为没有明确规定的评级标准的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is about flat so far in 2021. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averageare up 19% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年迄今为止，特斯拉股价基本持平。标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨 19% 和 15%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s AI Day Made Self- Driving Technology Harder to Grasp. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉的人工智能日让自动驾驶技术变得更加难以掌握。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s AI Day Made Self- Driving Technology Harder to Grasp. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉的人工智能日让自动驾驶技术变得更加难以掌握。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 18:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Evaluating car companies’ claims about self-driving cars is getting harder, rather than easier.</p><p><blockquote>评估汽车公司关于自动驾驶汽车的说法变得越来越困难，而不是越来越容易。</blockquote></p><p> Manufacturers are racing to build the best autonomous vehicles, but for people without advanced engineering degrees, judging who has the best systems has become nearly impossible. Autonomous-driving features are just too new and the systems are changing too rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>制造商正在竞相制造最好的自动驾驶汽车，但对于没有高级工程学位的人来说，判断谁拥有最好的系统几乎是不可能的。自动驾驶功能太新，系统变化太快。</blockquote></p><p> The job for investors, right now, is to understand exactly who is saying what about car makers’ competing autonomous-driving systems. Learning the bull and bear arguments is enough for now. Figuring out who is leading and what it means for the stocks of the car makers can come later.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在的任务是准确了解谁在谈论汽车制造商的自动驾驶系统。目前了解牛熊争论就足够了。弄清楚谁处于领先地位以及这对汽车制造商的股票意味着什么可以稍后进行。</blockquote></p><p> The highly anticipated Tesla(ticker: TSLA) A.I. Day was supposed to shed light on the topic of autonomous driving. Instead, it opened a Pandora’s box of questions that need answering.</p><p><blockquote>备受期待的特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）人工智能。戴本应阐明自动驾驶的话题。相反，它打开了一个潘多拉的盒子，里面有需要解答的问题。</blockquote></p><p> What investors really wanted to know was when drivers will be able to text and drive safely on highways without fear of getting a traffic ticket. That answer wasn’t forthcoming. Instead, investors were asked to digest the importance of computer- designed self-driving simulations, machine learning, and cloud-based A.I. training technology. The detail was arcane.</p><p><blockquote>投资者真正想知道的是，司机什么时候才能在高速公路上安全发短信和驾驶，而不用担心收到交通罚单。答案并没有出现。相反，投资者被要求消化计算机设计的自动驾驶模拟、机器学习和基于云的人工智能培训技术的重要性。这个细节很神秘。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla bulls, however, came away from the event blown away by Tesla’s A.I. prowess and the improvements to its autonomous-driving features. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu wrote Monday that Tesla is 10 years ahead of the competition in “real-world” artificial intelligence. He believes Tesla’s autonomous- driving subscription sales can generate about $23,000 in gross profit per vehicle over a 10-year span. That is significantly more than the roughly $7,000 in gross profit Tesla makes from selling a car.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉公牛队在比赛中被特斯拉的人工智能能力及其自动驾驶功能的改进所震撼。New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 周一撰文称，特斯拉在 “现实世界 ”人工智能领域的竞争中领先 10 年。他认为，特斯拉的自动驾驶订阅销售在 10 年内每辆车可产生约 23,000 美元的毛利润。这远远高于特斯拉销售一辆汽车所获得的大约 7,000 美元的毛利润。</blockquote></p><p> He rates Tesla stock at Buy and has a target of $900 for the stock price. Shares closed Monday at $706.30, up 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>他将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将股价目标定为 900 美元。周一股价收于 706.30 美元，上涨 3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla bears, on the other hand, are convinced that Tesla’s claims about self- driving cars are overstated and that other companies are doing a better job developing self-driving technology.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，特斯拉的看空者则坚信，特斯拉关于自动驾驶汽车的说法被夸大了，其他公司在开发自动驾驶技术方面做得更好。</blockquote></p><p> The bears’ belief is partly rooted in two reports from the research firm Guidehouse, which publishes automated-driving “leaderboards.” Tesla ranked dead last in the 2020 and 2021 reports.</p><p><blockquote>空头的信念部分源于研究公司 Guidehouse 的两份报告，该公司发布自动驾驶 “排行榜 ”。在2020年和2021年的报告中，特斯拉的死亡人数排名最后。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c9c6aae99c5231a325bf541cf4dca\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"915\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That might feel odd, given that Tesla CEO Elon Musk often talks about how advanced Tesla’s self-driving offerings are. But the Guidehouse rankings are partly based on vision systems and partnerships, two areas where Tesla doesn’t score well. The company doesn’t use laser-based radar, while other makers of self-driving cars do. And it doesn’t enter partnerships, doing everything in house.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会让人觉得奇怪，因为特斯拉首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）经常谈论特斯拉的自动驾驶产品有多先进。但 Guidehouse 的排名部分基于视觉系统和合作伙伴关系，而特斯拉在这两个领域的得分并不高。该公司不使用基于激光的雷达，而其他自动驾驶汽车制造商则使用。它也不建立合作伙伴关系，一切都在内部完成。</blockquote></p><p> It is possible that bulls and bears are both right and are talking past each other. Waymo, for instance, leads in the Guidehouse rankings. It has deployed fully autonomous robotaxis in Arizona. That is quite a feat.</p><p><blockquote>有可能多头和空头都是对的，并且正在互相谈论。例如，Waymo 在 Guidehouse 排名中处于领先地位。它已经在亚利桑那州部署了全自动机器人出租车。这是一个相当大的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s systems aren’t good enough to be robotaxis. They qualify as level 2 autonomy, which means drivers must be engaged at all times. But the systems enabling the Waymo robotaxi can cost upwards of $100,000 per vehicle. That is too pricey for consumer vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的系统还不足以成为机器人出租车。它们符合 2 级自动驾驶资格，这意味着司机必须始终参与其中。但支持 Waymo robotaxi 的系统每辆车的成本可能高达 10 万美元。这对于消费汽车来说太贵了。</blockquote></p><p> In October 2020,<i>Consumer Reports</i> ranked the automated-driving systems available to, well, consumers. Overall, Tesla’s automated driver system ranked second to General Motors(GM). Tesla scored highest on capability and ease of use, but ranked poorly on keeping the driver engaged.</p><p><blockquote>2020年10月，<i>消费者报告</i>对消费者可用的自动驾驶系统进行了排名。总体而言，特斯拉的自动驾驶系统仅次于通用汽车（GM）。特斯拉在功能和易用性方面得分最高，但在保持驾驶员参与度方面排名较差。</blockquote></p><p> One reason for that low score might be that Tesla’s automated-driving systems aren’t “hands free” solutions. Drivers need to keep their hands on, or touching, the steering wheel to keep the system on. There are “hands free” systems that use interior cameras to make sure a driver’s eyes are on the road at all times.</p><p><blockquote>得分低的一个原因可能是特斯拉的自动驾驶系统不是 “免提 ”解决方案。驾驶员需要将手放在或触摸方向盘上，以保持系统运行。有一些 “免提 ”系统利用车内摄像头确保驾驶员的眼睛始终注视着道路。</blockquote></p><p> Camera monitoring might be better than haptic steering-wheel feedback. That is a debate for car companies and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>摄像头监控可能比触觉方向盘反馈更好。对于汽车公司和监管机构来说，这是一场争论。</blockquote></p><p> Practically speaking, hands free and hands required isn’t the basis for competitive differentiation. All the systems on offer today, hands free or not, require drivers to be engaged 100% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，解放双手和需要双手并不是竞争差异化的基础。当今提供的所有系统，无论是否免提，都要求驾驶员100%的时间参与。</blockquote></p><p> Autonomous driving studies and reports will proliferate in coming years. Each will have different criteria for judging what is best. Eventually, investors will probably have to test out autonomous-driving systems for themselves. That way they won’t fall victim to ratings criteria that aren’t explicitly defined.</p><p><blockquote>自动驾驶研究和报告将在未来几年激增。每个人都有不同的标准来判断什么是最好的。最终，投资者可能不得不亲自测试自动驾驶系统。这样，他们就不会成为没有明确规定的评级标准的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is about flat so far in 2021. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averageare up 19% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年迄今为止，特斯拉股价基本持平。标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨 19% 和 15%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-ai-autonomous-vehicle-technology-51629756011?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-ai-autonomous-vehicle-technology-51629756011?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104587650","content_text":"Evaluating car companies’ claims about self-driving cars is getting harder, rather than easier.\nManufacturers are racing to build the best autonomous vehicles, but for people without advanced engineering degrees, judging who has the best systems has become nearly impossible. Autonomous-driving features are just too new and the systems are changing too rapidly.\nThe job for investors, right now, is to understand exactly who is saying what about car makers’ competing autonomous-driving systems. Learning the bull and bear arguments is enough for now. Figuring out who is leading and what it means for the stocks of the car makers can come later.\nThe highly anticipated Tesla(ticker: TSLA) A.I. Day was supposed to shed light on the topic of autonomous driving. Instead, it opened a Pandora’s box of questions that need answering.\nWhat investors really wanted to know was when drivers will be able to text and drive safely on highways without fear of getting a traffic ticket. That answer wasn’t forthcoming. Instead, investors were asked to digest the importance of computer- designed self-driving simulations, machine learning, and cloud-based A.I. training technology. The detail was arcane.\nTesla bulls, however, came away from the event blown away by Tesla’s A.I. prowess and the improvements to its autonomous-driving features. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu wrote Monday that Tesla is 10 years ahead of the competition in “real-world” artificial intelligence. He believes Tesla’s autonomous- driving subscription sales can generate about $23,000 in gross profit per vehicle over a 10-year span. That is significantly more than the roughly $7,000 in gross profit Tesla makes from selling a car.\nHe rates Tesla stock at Buy and has a target of $900 for the stock price. Shares closed Monday at $706.30, up 3.8%.\nTesla bears, on the other hand, are convinced that Tesla’s claims about self- driving cars are overstated and that other companies are doing a better job developing self-driving technology.\nThe bears’ belief is partly rooted in two reports from the research firm Guidehouse, which publishes automated-driving “leaderboards.” Tesla ranked dead last in the 2020 and 2021 reports.\n\nThat might feel odd, given that Tesla CEO Elon Musk often talks about how advanced Tesla’s self-driving offerings are. But the Guidehouse rankings are partly based on vision systems and partnerships, two areas where Tesla doesn’t score well. The company doesn’t use laser-based radar, while other makers of self-driving cars do. And it doesn’t enter partnerships, doing everything in house.\nIt is possible that bulls and bears are both right and are talking past each other. Waymo, for instance, leads in the Guidehouse rankings. It has deployed fully autonomous robotaxis in Arizona. That is quite a feat.\nTesla’s systems aren’t good enough to be robotaxis. They qualify as level 2 autonomy, which means drivers must be engaged at all times. But the systems enabling the Waymo robotaxi can cost upwards of $100,000 per vehicle. That is too pricey for consumer vehicles.\nIn October 2020,Consumer Reports ranked the automated-driving systems available to, well, consumers. Overall, Tesla’s automated driver system ranked second to General Motors(GM). Tesla scored highest on capability and ease of use, but ranked poorly on keeping the driver engaged.\nOne reason for that low score might be that Tesla’s automated-driving systems aren’t “hands free” solutions. Drivers need to keep their hands on, or touching, the steering wheel to keep the system on. There are “hands free” systems that use interior cameras to make sure a driver’s eyes are on the road at all times.\nCamera monitoring might be better than haptic steering-wheel feedback. That is a debate for car companies and regulators.\nPractically speaking, hands free and hands required isn’t the basis for competitive differentiation. All the systems on offer today, hands free or not, require drivers to be engaged 100% of the time.\nAutonomous driving studies and reports will proliferate in coming years. Each will have different criteria for judging what is best. Eventually, investors will probably have to test out autonomous-driving systems for themselves. That way they won’t fall victim to ratings criteria that aren’t explicitly defined.\nTesla stock is about flat so far in 2021. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averageare up 19% and 15%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/834658369"}
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