29e8bc52
2021-08-23
Wow. Greqt
[呆住]
Coupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强劲的上涨潜力</blockquote>
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Greqt<span>[呆住] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow. Greqt<span>[呆住] </span></p></body></html>","text":"Wow. Greqt[呆住]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835619573","repostId":1104828360,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104828360","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629709374,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104828360?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 17:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强劲的上涨潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104828360","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCoupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.\nThe South Korean e-commerce market is t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Coupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.</li> <li>The South Korean e-commerce market is the 5th largest market in the world.</li> <li>Coupang's consumer satisfaction levels are quite high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e691e63819b7b0620d306fda210b11\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"862\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，Coupang股票被低估。</li><li>韩国电子商务市场是世界第五大市场。</li><li>Coupang的消费者满意度相当高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market has already achieved significant market penetration. Coupang(NYSE:CPNG)achieved significant consumer satisfaction with users ranking their shopping app higher than the average for South Korean apps. Coupang has a built very strong delivery network that enables the company to reach 70% of the South Korean population in less than 10 minutes. Relative valuation analysis indicates that the stock is undervalued and suggests we can expect strong double-digit returns in upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场已经实现了显著的市场渗透。Coupang（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CPNG）获得了显著的消费者满意度，用户对其购物应用程序的排名高于韩国应用程序的平均水平。Coupang拥有非常强大的配送网络，使该公司能够在不到10分钟的时间内覆盖70%的韩国人口。相对估值分析表明该股被低估，并表明我们可以预期未来几年将获得强劲的两位数回报。</blockquote></p><p> The E-commerce market has already achieved significant success in South Korea. Currently, South Korea is the 5th largest e-commerce market in the world surpassing $110 billion in total sales level throughout 2020.</p><p><blockquote>电子商务市场在韩国已经取得了巨大的成功。目前，韩国是全球第五大电子商务市场，2020年总销售额超过1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922b387d1db16de8bef4fdf97be12804\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: emarketer.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：emarketer.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has the second-highest e-commerce sales to GDP ratio at 6.8%, only beaten by China with a 15.6% ratio. At the same time, the country has the 3rdhighest e-commerce sales per capita ($2,135) after the UK and the USA.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务销售额与GDP之比位居第二，为6.8%，仅次于中国的15.6%。与此同时，该国的人均电子商务销售额排名第三（2135美元），仅次于英国和美国。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228f28a7ed066b1bd408696b8282fe0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"121\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author Data taken:emarketer.com,World Bank GDP,World Bank Population</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来源：emarketer.com、世界银行GDP、世界银行人口</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has relatively high e-commerce penetration: about 72% of the population has used e-commerce services at least once. Though the percentage seems quite high, not all are using e-commerce frequently, and even active users are spending only a small proportion of their total budget on online shopping.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务渗透率相对较高：约72%的人口至少使用过一次电子商务服务。尽管这一比例似乎相当高，但并不是所有人都经常使用电子商务，即使是活跃用户也只将总预算的一小部分用于网上购物。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c693b246783d1776bca4d504ed8d5369\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"845\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visualistan.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Visualistan.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation is going to change as the younger generations are inclined towards the digital world and readily adopt new online services. 94.7% of the 20-29 age group has used e-commerce platforms, while only 60.02% of the 50-59 age group has ever used e-commerce services. The spending power of the younger generations grow in line with their age, providing long-term sustainable growth opportunities for e-commerce players.</p><p><blockquote>随着年轻一代倾向于数字世界并乐于采用新的在线服务，这种情况将会改变。20-29岁年龄段中有94.7%使用过电商平台，而50-59岁年龄段中只有60.02%使用过电商服务。年轻一代的消费能力随年龄增长，为电商玩家提供长期可持续增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40abd940c7c44fc18d7df77a7cc65113\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has a high internet penetration rate with99.2%of households having internet access via PC, mobile or other devices. Mobile online purchases are the biggest growth engine for the e-commerce sector: online purchases via PC grew by only10.3%in the 2017-2018 period and 5.67% in the 2018-2019 period. At the same time, purchases made via mobile phones increased by 31.7% in the 2017-2018 period and by 19.84% in the 2018-2019 period. Mobile purchases make up 61.5% of total e-commerce sales. South Korea has the highest smartphone penetration in the world: 96% of the total population owns a smartphone compared to 89% in the USA and 71% in China.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的互联网普及率很高，99.2%的家庭通过个人电脑、手机或其他设备接入互联网。移动在线购买是电子商务领域最大的增长引擎：通过PC的在线购买在2017-2018年期间仅增长了10.3%，在2018-2019年期间增长了5.67%。与此同时，通过手机进行的购买在2017-2018年期间增长了31.7%，在2018-2019年期间增长了19.84%。移动购买占电子商务总销售额的61.5%。韩国拥有世界上最高的智能手机普及率：96%的总人口拥有智能手机，相比之下，美国和中国分别为89%和71%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's mobile applications are among the top 20 of South Korean applications. Coupang’s Shopping app is the 13th most popular mobile app in South Korea according to the SimilarWebranking system in Apple's App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL), while Coupang Eats is 12th. At the same time, in the Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG), the Coupang Shopping application is 15th. In South Korea,71.17% of mobile users use the Android operating system, while only 28.46% are iOS users. Thus, Google Play Store stats are more important for our analysis.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的移动应用程序位列韩国应用程序前20名。根据苹果应用商店（纳斯达克：AAPL）的SimilarWebranking系统，Coupang的购物应用程序在韩国最受欢迎的移动应用程序中排名第13位，而Coupang Eats排名第12位。同时，在谷歌Play商店（纳斯达克：GOOG）中，Coupang购物应用排名第15位。在韩国，71.17%的手机用户使用Android操作系统，而iOS用户仅为28.46%。因此，谷歌Play商店的统计数据对我们的分析更为重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6eac4aab5f190785020e5bb169cfc8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statcounter.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Coupang shopping application has more than 583,000 reviews in the Google Play Store and the average rating is 4.2. More than 65% of users rated the app 5 stars. The rating of the app is significantly better than the average Korean app score of 3.39.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang购物应用程序在谷歌Play商店有超过583,000条评论，平均评分为4.2。超过65%的用户给这款应用打了5颗星。该应用程序的评分明显优于韩国应用程序平均得分3.39。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110d6671b18364eb3e71854b583c9fc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Appgrooves</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Appgrooves</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> E-commerce penetration in South Korea jumped significantly in 2020. In 2019, the penetration rate was 20.8%, while in 2020 the number increased to 25.9%. In this respect, South Korea is ahead of the USA (14%), the UK (23.3%) and China (24.9%). These statistics indicate that the South Korean market is one step ahead of other countries' markets. It is estimated that the South Korean e-commerce market will continue its fast-paced growth and reach $150 billion revenues in 2024. Analysts estimate an8% GMV CAGRduring the 2021-2024 period.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，韩国的电子商务渗透率大幅跃升。2019年，渗透率为20.8%，而2020年这一数字增至25.9%。在这方面，韩国领先于美国（14%）、英国（23.3%）和中国（24.9%）。这些统计数据表明，韩国市场领先其他国家市场一步。据估计，韩国电子商务市场将继续快速增长，2024年收入将达到1500亿美元。分析师预计2021-2024年期间GMV复合年增长率为8%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is growing faster than the total industry as the company was able to increase its market share significantly in 2020. In 2019, the company had a market share of18.1%, while in 2020 Coupang's share had increased to 24%. Meanwhile, its main competitors could not grow their market share percentages in 2020. The main rivals of the company are eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)owned Gmarket, WeMakePrice and Naver Shopping. According to Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities, the company can increase its market share by exceeding a30% levelin upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的增长速度快于整个行业，因为该公司能够在2020年大幅增加其市场份额。2019年，该公司的市场份额为18.1%，而2020年Coupang的份额已增至24%。与此同时，其主要竞争对手无法在2020年增加市场份额。该公司的主要竞争对手是eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）旗下的Gmarket、WeMakePrice和Naver Shopping。元大证券全球资产配置主管Daniel Yoo表示，未来几年，该公司的市场份额可以超过30%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang was founded in 2010, and since then has achieved a significant market share in South Korea. One of the biggest contributors to this fast growth was their fast delivery. Coupang's logistics business, Rocket Delivery, allows consumers to receive their orders in less than 24 hours from ordering. The company has built a strong end-to-end logistics network using its 200 warehouses and more than 100 logistics centers. According to the management,70% of the South Korean populationis living within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistics center. It creates a significant moat for the business as competitors would need to invest large amounts of cash to build similar logistics networks. Recently, Coupang has launched the Dawn Delivery service which delivers goods by 7 a.m., if the order is placed by midnight the day before. More than 3.3 million items are being ordered on the Coupang platform every day and 99.3% of all items are being delivered within 24 hours. It is worth mentioning that the fast delivery service has been achievable because South Korea is so densely populated. South Korea is the 23rd most densely populated country in the world with a density ratio of512 people per 1 km square. 81.4% of the population are living in cities, making the country the39thmost urbanized in the world.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang成立于2010年，此后在韩国取得了可观的市场份额。这种快速增长的最大贡献者之一是他们的快速交付。Coupang的物流业务Rocket Delivery允许消费者在订购后不到24小时内收到订单。该公司利用其200个仓库和100多个物流中心建立了强大的端到端物流网络。据管理层称，70%的韩国人口居住在距离Coupang物流中心10分钟路程的范围内。它为该业务创造了一条重要的护城河，因为竞争对手需要投入大量现金来建立类似的物流网络。最近，Coupang推出了黎明送货服务，如果在前一天午夜前下订单，可以在早上7点前送货。Coupang平台上每天订购超过330万件商品，99.3%的商品在24小时内送达。值得一提的是，由于韩国人口稠密，快速递送服务一直是可以实现的。韩国是世界上人口密度第23高的国家，人口密度为每1平方公里512人。81.4%的人口生活在城市，使该国成为世界上城市化程度第39位的国家。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's different segments are interconnected, as the growth of one segment is bringing tailwinds for other segments. Coupang is investing heavily to grow its 1P business (their inventory offering) by expanding its product base and improving the quality of the service. These investments increase the level of consumer satisfaction and bring a significant number of consumers to the 3P business (3rd party marketplace). New consumers in the 3P segment increase the interest in new merchants on the platform; this is further expanding product variety, creating economic moat and attracting new consumers. Sellers are urged to move from traditional retail stores because this market is declining by7% YoYin South Korea, while on Coupang's platform 3rd party merchants grow their sales by an average of 87% YoY. So, due to large investments in the 1P business and the consumer base expansion in the 3P business, Coupang’s total business has grown at twice the rate of the total South Korean market over the past 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的不同细分市场是相互关联的，因为一个细分市场的增长为其他细分市场带来了推动力。Coupang正在大力投资，通过扩大产品基础和提高服务质量来发展其1P业务（他们的库存产品）。这些投资提高了消费者满意度，并为3P业务（第三方市场）带来了大量消费者。3P细分市场的新消费者增加了对平台新商家的兴趣；这进一步扩大了产品种类，创造了经济护城河并吸引了新的消费者。卖家被敦促离开传统零售店，因为韩国这个市场同比下降7%，而在Coupang的平台上，第三方商家的销售额平均同比增长87%。因此，由于对1P业务的大量投资和3P业务消费者基础的扩大，Coupang的总业务在过去两年中以韩国市场总额的两倍速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company is actively encouraging more consumers to its platform: in Q2, the company recorded 26% active user growth, reaching17 million monthlyactive consumers. There seems to be a consumer base growth opportunity in South Korea, as it is estimated that there are about 37 million internet shoppers in the country. The company could not achieve significant growth by only expanding its consumer base, but it can record significant growth by increasing their revenue per consumer, which is still quite low. In the last quarter, the company managed to record a 36% revenue per consumer growth, due to the expansion of product and service bases.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在积极鼓励更多消费者使用其平台：第二季度，该公司的活跃用户增长了26%，月活跃消费者达到1700万。韩国似乎有一个消费者基础增长的机会，因为据估计，该国约有3700万互联网购物者。该公司无法仅通过扩大消费者基础来实现显着增长，但可以通过增加每位消费者的收入来实现显着增长，而这一收入仍然相当低。上个季度，由于产品和服务基础的扩大，该公司的每位消费者收入增长了36%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is also offering its employees incentives to invest their efforts into the growth of the business. Coupang is the first Korean company to make its frontline workers shareholders of the company: 39,000 employees got restricted stock awards at the IPO. Coupang employees are generally content with the firm as the company has a 4 out of 5-star rating. The CEO has a90% approvalrate, while 80% of employees would recommend joining the Coupang team to their friends. Employee’s rank \"career opportunities\" in the company a quite high, which is a very important factor to attract highly talented workers to the business.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang还为员工提供激励措施，鼓励他们努力发展业务。Coupang是第一家让一线员工成为公司股东的韩国公司：39,000名员工在IPO中获得了限制性股票奖励。Coupang员工普遍对该公司感到满意，因为该公司的评级为4星（满分5星）。首席执行官的支持率为90%，而80%的员工会向朋友推荐加入Coupang团队。员工在公司的“职业机会”等级相当高，这是吸引高才能员工加入企业的一个非常重要的因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f732667289dcdc80244f6b7e8b4405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Glassdoor.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Glassdoor.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Coupang recorded a $122 million EBITDA loss in Q2 2021. These losses come from investments in new segments of the company: direct investments in the Eats and Fresh segments amounted to $120 million in Q2. These investments seem quite justified as the new fields helped Coupang to record significant top-line growth. Particularly, the Fresh grocery revenues doubled in Q2 YoY, exceeding the $2 billion level, less than 3 years after its launch. Though the Eats and Fresh segments are not yet profitable, they are recording significant contribution margin improvements in recent quarters, and the management believes that they will replicate the profitability of the mature segments of the company. In the Fresh segment, the management was able to record a 1,000-basis point contribution margin improvement YoY, while in the Eats segment the loss per order decreased by 50% in last year. As the management sees low online penetration in these segments and high ROI opportunities, they are going to continue to invest aggressively to create long term value for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang在2021年第二季度录得1.22亿美元的EBITDA亏损。这些损失来自对公司新部门的投资：第二季度对Eats和Fresh部门的直接投资达1.2亿美元。这些投资似乎相当合理，因为新油田帮助Coupang实现了显着的营收增长。特别是，在推出不到3年后，第二季度的生鲜杂货收入同比翻了一番，超过了20亿美元的水平。尽管Eats和生鲜部门尚未盈利，但它们在最近几个季度的贡献率显着提高，管理层相信它们将复制公司成熟部门的盈利能力。在生鲜部门，管理层的贡献率同比提高了1,000个基点，而在Eats部门，去年每笔订单的亏损下降了50%。由于管理层看到这些细分市场的在线渗透率较低且投资回报率较高，因此他们将继续积极投资，为投资者创造长期价值。</blockquote></p><p> The growing scale of the business helps Coupang to improve profitability margins. The gross margin was only5.08%in 2018, while in the last quarter the company recorded a gross margin of 16.8%. However, the margin includes an inventory write-off of $158 million which was caused by a fulfilment center fire. Excluding the consequences of the fire, the company reported an $816 million quarterly gross profit, a 86% YoY improvement, and the adjusted gross margin is 18.2%.</p><p><blockquote>不断增长的业务规模有助于Coupang提高利润率。2018年毛利率仅为5.08%，而上一季度公司毛利率为16.8%。然而，该利润包括由履行中心火灾造成的1.58亿美元的库存冲销。排除火灾后果，该公司公布季度毛利润为8.16亿美元，同比增长86%，调整后毛利率为18.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has significant opportunities to expand its business. One of the most interesting areas is fintech, as the company could provide consumers with its own payment platform to process their transactions, get loans for their purchases etc. LatAm, owner of the e-commerce business Mercadolibre(NASDAQ:MELI), realizes this opportunity quite successfully as athird of its revenuescome from the fintech segment. Coupang's management is rather cautious about this field as they prefer to invest in the e-commerce segment. Coupang's fintech offerings are at their early stages yet as the company tests opportunities in the sector. The management has a similar approach to international expansion. Currently, Coupang is working on business expansion in Japan and Taiwan, however, these initiatives are at their early stages and the management is not intending to invest large amounts of cash on these projects.</p><p><blockquote>该公司有很大的机会扩大其业务。最有趣的领域之一是金融科技，因为该公司可以为消费者提供自己的支付平台来处理他们的交易、获得购买贷款等。电子商务企业Mercadolibre（纳斯达克：MELI）的所有者LatAm意识到这一机会相当成功，因为其三分之一的收入来自金融科技领域。Coupang的管理层对这一领域相当谨慎，因为他们更愿意投资电子商务领域。Coupang的金融科技产品仍处于早期阶段，该公司正在测试该行业的机会。管理层对国际扩张采取了类似的方法。目前，Coupang正致力于在日本和台湾的业务扩张，然而，这些举措仍处于早期阶段，管理层不打算在这些项目上投入大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Cross border e-commerce growth is one of the biggest threats for the business as prices in South Korea are generally higher than foreign prices. In 2019, there were almost$3.1 billiononline purchases from foreign retail sites, growing 15% YoY. However, surveys indicate that the South Korean population is not overly concerned about high prices as only20% of online shopperspay attention to low-priced products.</p><p><blockquote>跨境电子商务的增长是该业务面临的最大威胁之一，因为韩国的价格普遍高于国外价格。2019年，外国零售网站的在线购物额近31亿美元，同比增长15%。然而，调查显示，韩国人并不过度担心高价，因为只有20%的网上购物者关注低价产品。</blockquote></p><p> Every e-commerce player faces significant competition as the industry promises significant growth opportunities and companies invest heavily to grab their market share. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)shows significant interest in the South Korean market as last year they announced their partnership with SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM). The partnership gives Amazon the right to obtain30% of 11Street, an e-commerce platform operating in South Korea, whose parent company is SK Telecom. In 2020, 11Street recorded revenues of $530 billion, which was about 14 times lower than Coupang's results. However, Amazon's partnership with the business will allow 11Street to introduce Amazon's products and services to its consumers which will create significant competitive advantages for the company.</p><p><blockquote>每个电子商务参与者都面临着激烈的竞争，因为该行业有望带来巨大的增长机会，并且公司大力投资以抢占市场份额。亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）对韩国市场表现出浓厚的兴趣，去年他们宣布与SK Telecom（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKM）建立合作伙伴关系。此次合作使亚马逊有权获得11Street 30%的股份，11Street是一家在韩国运营的电子商务平台，其母公司是SK Telecom。2020年，11Street的收入为5300亿美元，比Coupang的业绩低约14倍。然而，亚马逊与该业务的合作将使11Street能够向其消费者介绍亚马逊的产品和服务，这将为该公司创造显着的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have used a relative valuation analysis. We have collected data on the world's 15 biggest e-commerce stocks to calculate the value of CPNG. The average P/S FWD ratio of the 15 biggest e-commerce companies is 7.99, while the median ratio is 4.25. Coupang's P/S FWD is 2.57, which indicates that the stock is trading at a lower multiple compared to its peers. Calculating the PSG ratio of competitors, we see that the average PSG is 20.96, while the median PSG is 17.4. Calculating Coupang's P/S FWD based on these multiples, and analysts' estimated revenue growth rate of50.2%, we get an average P/S FWD of 10.52 and a median of 8.73. These ratios are significantly higher than Coupang's 2.57 multiple. However, the low multiple reflects the low profitability of the business. The company reported a TTM gross margin of 16.63%, significantly lower than peers' average margin of 43.45%, thus we need to incorporate the low profitability of the business in our calculations also.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的内在价值，我们使用了相对估值分析。我们收集了全球15只最大的电子商务股票的数据来计算CPNG的价值。15家最大电子商务公司的平均市盈率为7.99，中位数为4.25。Coupang的市盈率为2.57，这表明该股的市盈率低于同行。计算竞争对手的PSG比率，我们看到平均PSG为20.96，而中位数PSG为17.4。根据这些倍数以及分析师估计的50.2%的收入增长率计算Coupang的P/S FWD，我们得到的平均P/S FWD为10.52，中位数为8.73。这些比率明显高于Coupang的2.57倍。然而，低倍数反映了该业务的低盈利能力。该公司公布的TTM毛利率为16.63%，明显低于同行43.45%的平均利润率，因此我们还需要将该业务的低盈利能力纳入我们的计算中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae3e0938046e190132023d59e967802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, Data:SeekingAlpha.com,Finviz.com,GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据：SeekingAlpha.com、Finviz.com、GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, we have built a regression analysis where, for dependent variables, we have used natural logs of peers' estimated growth rates and TTM gross margins. As a result, we have an R Square of 55% and an F Stat of 7.34, which indicates that there is high statistical significance. Using coefficients of the regression equation, we get a P/S FWD ratio of 3.85, which is higher than Coupang's P/S FWD ratio of 2.57, and indicates that the stock is undervalued by 49%. So, we think that the intrinsic value of Coupang is $50; 12% higher than analysts' average price target of$44.7and 16.7% lower than analysts' highest price target of $60.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们建立了一个回归分析，对于因变量，我们使用了同行估计增长率和TTM毛利率的自然对数。因此，我们的R平方为55%，F Stat为7.34，这表明具有很高的统计显著性。使用回归方程的系数，我们得到的P/S FWD比率为3.85，高于Coupang的P/S FWD比率2.57，表明该股被低估了49%。因此，我们认为Coupang的内在价值为50美元；比分析师平均目标价44.7美元高12%，比分析师最高目标价60美元低16.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62c188e06bf9026705f537b306f13d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is expected that the South Korean retail market will exceed$530 billionby 2024. Considering a 35% e-commerce penetration rate and Coupang securing a 20% market share we get a $37.1 billion revenue prediction for Coupang. Taking our P/S ratio of 3.85, and multiplying it by our assumed sales figures, we get a $142.8 billion implied market cap, which is 140% higher than the current market cap and indicates a 34% annual return opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2024年，韩国零售市场将超过5300亿美元。考虑到35%的电子商务渗透率和Coupang获得20%的市场份额，我们对Coupang的收入预测为371亿美元。将我们的市盈率3.85乘以我们假设的销售数据，我们得到1,428亿美元的隐含市值，比当前市值高出140%，表明年回报机会为34%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market is growing quite rapidly. Coupang is the largest e-commerce player in South Korea partly because it managed to build a strong logistics network and delivers items quickly. Our valuation analyses indicate that the stock is undervalued by 50% compared to its peers, thus we see a strong price appreciation opportunity. We anticipate a 34% annual return until 2024, thus we assign a Buy rating to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场增长相当迅速。Coupang是韩国最大的电子商务公司，部分原因是它成功建立了强大的物流网络并快速交付商品。我们的估值分析表明，与同行相比，该股被低估了50%，因此我们看到了强劲的价格升值机会。我们预计到2024年的年回报率为34%，因此我们给予该股买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强劲的上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强劲的上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 17:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Coupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.</li> <li>The South Korean e-commerce market is the 5th largest market in the world.</li> <li>Coupang's consumer satisfaction levels are quite high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e691e63819b7b0620d306fda210b11\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"862\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，Coupang股票被低估。</li><li>韩国电子商务市场是世界第五大市场。</li><li>Coupang的消费者满意度相当高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market has already achieved significant market penetration. Coupang(NYSE:CPNG)achieved significant consumer satisfaction with users ranking their shopping app higher than the average for South Korean apps. Coupang has a built very strong delivery network that enables the company to reach 70% of the South Korean population in less than 10 minutes. Relative valuation analysis indicates that the stock is undervalued and suggests we can expect strong double-digit returns in upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场已经实现了显著的市场渗透。Coupang（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CPNG）获得了显著的消费者满意度，用户对其购物应用程序的排名高于韩国应用程序的平均水平。Coupang拥有非常强大的配送网络，使该公司能够在不到10分钟的时间内覆盖70%的韩国人口。相对估值分析表明该股被低估，并表明我们可以预期未来几年将获得强劲的两位数回报。</blockquote></p><p> The E-commerce market has already achieved significant success in South Korea. Currently, South Korea is the 5th largest e-commerce market in the world surpassing $110 billion in total sales level throughout 2020.</p><p><blockquote>电子商务市场在韩国已经取得了巨大的成功。目前，韩国是全球第五大电子商务市场，2020年总销售额超过1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922b387d1db16de8bef4fdf97be12804\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: emarketer.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：emarketer.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has the second-highest e-commerce sales to GDP ratio at 6.8%, only beaten by China with a 15.6% ratio. At the same time, the country has the 3rdhighest e-commerce sales per capita ($2,135) after the UK and the USA.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务销售额与GDP之比位居第二，为6.8%，仅次于中国的15.6%。与此同时，该国的人均电子商务销售额排名第三（2135美元），仅次于英国和美国。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228f28a7ed066b1bd408696b8282fe0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"121\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author Data taken:emarketer.com,World Bank GDP,World Bank Population</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来源：emarketer.com、世界银行GDP、世界银行人口</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has relatively high e-commerce penetration: about 72% of the population has used e-commerce services at least once. Though the percentage seems quite high, not all are using e-commerce frequently, and even active users are spending only a small proportion of their total budget on online shopping.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务渗透率相对较高：约72%的人口至少使用过一次电子商务服务。尽管这一比例似乎相当高，但并不是所有人都经常使用电子商务，即使是活跃用户也只将总预算的一小部分用于网上购物。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c693b246783d1776bca4d504ed8d5369\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"845\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visualistan.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Visualistan.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation is going to change as the younger generations are inclined towards the digital world and readily adopt new online services. 94.7% of the 20-29 age group has used e-commerce platforms, while only 60.02% of the 50-59 age group has ever used e-commerce services. The spending power of the younger generations grow in line with their age, providing long-term sustainable growth opportunities for e-commerce players.</p><p><blockquote>随着年轻一代倾向于数字世界并乐于采用新的在线服务，这种情况将会改变。20-29岁年龄段中有94.7%使用过电商平台，而50-59岁年龄段中只有60.02%使用过电商服务。年轻一代的消费能力随年龄增长，为电商玩家提供长期可持续增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40abd940c7c44fc18d7df77a7cc65113\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has a high internet penetration rate with99.2%of households having internet access via PC, mobile or other devices. Mobile online purchases are the biggest growth engine for the e-commerce sector: online purchases via PC grew by only10.3%in the 2017-2018 period and 5.67% in the 2018-2019 period. At the same time, purchases made via mobile phones increased by 31.7% in the 2017-2018 period and by 19.84% in the 2018-2019 period. Mobile purchases make up 61.5% of total e-commerce sales. South Korea has the highest smartphone penetration in the world: 96% of the total population owns a smartphone compared to 89% in the USA and 71% in China.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的互联网普及率很高，99.2%的家庭通过个人电脑、手机或其他设备接入互联网。移动在线购买是电子商务领域最大的增长引擎：通过PC的在线购买在2017-2018年期间仅增长了10.3%，在2018-2019年期间增长了5.67%。与此同时，通过手机进行的购买在2017-2018年期间增长了31.7%，在2018-2019年期间增长了19.84%。移动购买占电子商务总销售额的61.5%。韩国拥有世界上最高的智能手机普及率：96%的总人口拥有智能手机，相比之下，美国和中国分别为89%和71%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's mobile applications are among the top 20 of South Korean applications. Coupang’s Shopping app is the 13th most popular mobile app in South Korea according to the SimilarWebranking system in Apple's App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL), while Coupang Eats is 12th. At the same time, in the Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG), the Coupang Shopping application is 15th. In South Korea,71.17% of mobile users use the Android operating system, while only 28.46% are iOS users. Thus, Google Play Store stats are more important for our analysis.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的移动应用程序位列韩国应用程序前20名。根据苹果应用商店（纳斯达克：AAPL）的SimilarWebranking系统，Coupang的购物应用程序在韩国最受欢迎的移动应用程序中排名第13位，而Coupang Eats排名第12位。同时，在谷歌Play商店（纳斯达克：GOOG）中，Coupang购物应用排名第15位。在韩国，71.17%的手机用户使用Android操作系统，而iOS用户仅为28.46%。因此，谷歌Play商店的统计数据对我们的分析更为重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6eac4aab5f190785020e5bb169cfc8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statcounter.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Coupang shopping application has more than 583,000 reviews in the Google Play Store and the average rating is 4.2. More than 65% of users rated the app 5 stars. The rating of the app is significantly better than the average Korean app score of 3.39.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang购物应用程序在谷歌Play商店有超过583,000条评论，平均评分为4.2。超过65%的用户给这款应用打了5颗星。该应用程序的评分明显优于韩国应用程序平均得分3.39。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110d6671b18364eb3e71854b583c9fc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Appgrooves</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Appgrooves</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> E-commerce penetration in South Korea jumped significantly in 2020. In 2019, the penetration rate was 20.8%, while in 2020 the number increased to 25.9%. In this respect, South Korea is ahead of the USA (14%), the UK (23.3%) and China (24.9%). These statistics indicate that the South Korean market is one step ahead of other countries' markets. It is estimated that the South Korean e-commerce market will continue its fast-paced growth and reach $150 billion revenues in 2024. Analysts estimate an8% GMV CAGRduring the 2021-2024 period.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，韩国的电子商务渗透率大幅跃升。2019年，渗透率为20.8%，而2020年这一数字增至25.9%。在这方面，韩国领先于美国（14%）、英国（23.3%）和中国（24.9%）。这些统计数据表明，韩国市场领先其他国家市场一步。据估计，韩国电子商务市场将继续快速增长，2024年收入将达到1500亿美元。分析师预计2021-2024年期间GMV复合年增长率为8%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is growing faster than the total industry as the company was able to increase its market share significantly in 2020. In 2019, the company had a market share of18.1%, while in 2020 Coupang's share had increased to 24%. Meanwhile, its main competitors could not grow their market share percentages in 2020. The main rivals of the company are eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)owned Gmarket, WeMakePrice and Naver Shopping. According to Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities, the company can increase its market share by exceeding a30% levelin upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的增长速度快于整个行业，因为该公司能够在2020年大幅增加其市场份额。2019年，该公司的市场份额为18.1%，而2020年Coupang的份额已增至24%。与此同时，其主要竞争对手无法在2020年增加市场份额。该公司的主要竞争对手是eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）旗下的Gmarket、WeMakePrice和Naver Shopping。元大证券全球资产配置主管Daniel Yoo表示，未来几年，该公司的市场份额可以超过30%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang was founded in 2010, and since then has achieved a significant market share in South Korea. One of the biggest contributors to this fast growth was their fast delivery. Coupang's logistics business, Rocket Delivery, allows consumers to receive their orders in less than 24 hours from ordering. The company has built a strong end-to-end logistics network using its 200 warehouses and more than 100 logistics centers. According to the management,70% of the South Korean populationis living within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistics center. It creates a significant moat for the business as competitors would need to invest large amounts of cash to build similar logistics networks. Recently, Coupang has launched the Dawn Delivery service which delivers goods by 7 a.m., if the order is placed by midnight the day before. More than 3.3 million items are being ordered on the Coupang platform every day and 99.3% of all items are being delivered within 24 hours. It is worth mentioning that the fast delivery service has been achievable because South Korea is so densely populated. South Korea is the 23rd most densely populated country in the world with a density ratio of512 people per 1 km square. 81.4% of the population are living in cities, making the country the39thmost urbanized in the world.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang成立于2010年，此后在韩国取得了可观的市场份额。这种快速增长的最大贡献者之一是他们的快速交付。Coupang的物流业务Rocket Delivery允许消费者在订购后不到24小时内收到订单。该公司利用其200个仓库和100多个物流中心建立了强大的端到端物流网络。据管理层称，70%的韩国人口居住在距离Coupang物流中心10分钟路程的范围内。它为该业务创造了一条重要的护城河，因为竞争对手需要投入大量现金来建立类似的物流网络。最近，Coupang推出了黎明送货服务，如果在前一天午夜前下订单，可以在早上7点前送货。Coupang平台上每天订购超过330万件商品，99.3%的商品在24小时内送达。值得一提的是，由于韩国人口稠密，快速递送服务一直是可以实现的。韩国是世界上人口密度第23高的国家，人口密度为每1平方公里512人。81.4%的人口生活在城市，使该国成为世界上城市化程度第39位的国家。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's different segments are interconnected, as the growth of one segment is bringing tailwinds for other segments. Coupang is investing heavily to grow its 1P business (their inventory offering) by expanding its product base and improving the quality of the service. These investments increase the level of consumer satisfaction and bring a significant number of consumers to the 3P business (3rd party marketplace). New consumers in the 3P segment increase the interest in new merchants on the platform; this is further expanding product variety, creating economic moat and attracting new consumers. Sellers are urged to move from traditional retail stores because this market is declining by7% YoYin South Korea, while on Coupang's platform 3rd party merchants grow their sales by an average of 87% YoY. So, due to large investments in the 1P business and the consumer base expansion in the 3P business, Coupang’s total business has grown at twice the rate of the total South Korean market over the past 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的不同细分市场是相互关联的，因为一个细分市场的增长为其他细分市场带来了推动力。Coupang正在大力投资，通过扩大产品基础和提高服务质量来发展其1P业务（他们的库存产品）。这些投资提高了消费者满意度，并为3P业务（第三方市场）带来了大量消费者。3P细分市场的新消费者增加了对平台新商家的兴趣；这进一步扩大了产品种类，创造了经济护城河并吸引了新的消费者。卖家被敦促离开传统零售店，因为韩国这个市场同比下降7%，而在Coupang的平台上，第三方商家的销售额平均同比增长87%。因此，由于对1P业务的大量投资和3P业务消费者基础的扩大，Coupang的总业务在过去两年中以韩国市场总额的两倍速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company is actively encouraging more consumers to its platform: in Q2, the company recorded 26% active user growth, reaching17 million monthlyactive consumers. There seems to be a consumer base growth opportunity in South Korea, as it is estimated that there are about 37 million internet shoppers in the country. The company could not achieve significant growth by only expanding its consumer base, but it can record significant growth by increasing their revenue per consumer, which is still quite low. In the last quarter, the company managed to record a 36% revenue per consumer growth, due to the expansion of product and service bases.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在积极鼓励更多消费者使用其平台：第二季度，该公司的活跃用户增长了26%，月活跃消费者达到1700万。韩国似乎有一个消费者基础增长的机会，因为据估计，该国约有3700万互联网购物者。该公司无法仅通过扩大消费者基础来实现显着增长，但可以通过增加每位消费者的收入来实现显着增长，而这一收入仍然相当低。上个季度，由于产品和服务基础的扩大，该公司的每位消费者收入增长了36%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is also offering its employees incentives to invest their efforts into the growth of the business. Coupang is the first Korean company to make its frontline workers shareholders of the company: 39,000 employees got restricted stock awards at the IPO. Coupang employees are generally content with the firm as the company has a 4 out of 5-star rating. The CEO has a90% approvalrate, while 80% of employees would recommend joining the Coupang team to their friends. Employee’s rank \"career opportunities\" in the company a quite high, which is a very important factor to attract highly talented workers to the business.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang还为员工提供激励措施，鼓励他们努力发展业务。Coupang是第一家让一线员工成为公司股东的韩国公司：39,000名员工在IPO中获得了限制性股票奖励。Coupang员工普遍对该公司感到满意，因为该公司的评级为4星（满分5星）。首席执行官的支持率为90%，而80%的员工会向朋友推荐加入Coupang团队。员工在公司的“职业机会”等级相当高，这是吸引高才能员工加入企业的一个非常重要的因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f732667289dcdc80244f6b7e8b4405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Glassdoor.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Glassdoor.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Coupang recorded a $122 million EBITDA loss in Q2 2021. These losses come from investments in new segments of the company: direct investments in the Eats and Fresh segments amounted to $120 million in Q2. These investments seem quite justified as the new fields helped Coupang to record significant top-line growth. Particularly, the Fresh grocery revenues doubled in Q2 YoY, exceeding the $2 billion level, less than 3 years after its launch. Though the Eats and Fresh segments are not yet profitable, they are recording significant contribution margin improvements in recent quarters, and the management believes that they will replicate the profitability of the mature segments of the company. In the Fresh segment, the management was able to record a 1,000-basis point contribution margin improvement YoY, while in the Eats segment the loss per order decreased by 50% in last year. As the management sees low online penetration in these segments and high ROI opportunities, they are going to continue to invest aggressively to create long term value for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang在2021年第二季度录得1.22亿美元的EBITDA亏损。这些损失来自对公司新部门的投资：第二季度对Eats和Fresh部门的直接投资达1.2亿美元。这些投资似乎相当合理，因为新油田帮助Coupang实现了显着的营收增长。特别是，在推出不到3年后，第二季度的生鲜杂货收入同比翻了一番，超过了20亿美元的水平。尽管Eats和生鲜部门尚未盈利，但它们在最近几个季度的贡献率显着提高，管理层相信它们将复制公司成熟部门的盈利能力。在生鲜部门，管理层的贡献率同比提高了1,000个基点，而在Eats部门，去年每笔订单的亏损下降了50%。由于管理层看到这些细分市场的在线渗透率较低且投资回报率较高，因此他们将继续积极投资，为投资者创造长期价值。</blockquote></p><p> The growing scale of the business helps Coupang to improve profitability margins. The gross margin was only5.08%in 2018, while in the last quarter the company recorded a gross margin of 16.8%. However, the margin includes an inventory write-off of $158 million which was caused by a fulfilment center fire. Excluding the consequences of the fire, the company reported an $816 million quarterly gross profit, a 86% YoY improvement, and the adjusted gross margin is 18.2%.</p><p><blockquote>不断增长的业务规模有助于Coupang提高利润率。2018年毛利率仅为5.08%，而上一季度公司毛利率为16.8%。然而，该利润包括由履行中心火灾造成的1.58亿美元的库存冲销。排除火灾后果，该公司公布季度毛利润为8.16亿美元，同比增长86%，调整后毛利率为18.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has significant opportunities to expand its business. One of the most interesting areas is fintech, as the company could provide consumers with its own payment platform to process their transactions, get loans for their purchases etc. LatAm, owner of the e-commerce business Mercadolibre(NASDAQ:MELI), realizes this opportunity quite successfully as athird of its revenuescome from the fintech segment. Coupang's management is rather cautious about this field as they prefer to invest in the e-commerce segment. Coupang's fintech offerings are at their early stages yet as the company tests opportunities in the sector. The management has a similar approach to international expansion. Currently, Coupang is working on business expansion in Japan and Taiwan, however, these initiatives are at their early stages and the management is not intending to invest large amounts of cash on these projects.</p><p><blockquote>该公司有很大的机会扩大其业务。最有趣的领域之一是金融科技，因为该公司可以为消费者提供自己的支付平台来处理他们的交易、获得购买贷款等。电子商务企业Mercadolibre（纳斯达克：MELI）的所有者LatAm意识到这一机会相当成功，因为其三分之一的收入来自金融科技领域。Coupang的管理层对这一领域相当谨慎，因为他们更愿意投资电子商务领域。Coupang的金融科技产品仍处于早期阶段，该公司正在测试该行业的机会。管理层对国际扩张采取了类似的方法。目前，Coupang正致力于在日本和台湾的业务扩张，然而，这些举措仍处于早期阶段，管理层不打算在这些项目上投入大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Cross border e-commerce growth is one of the biggest threats for the business as prices in South Korea are generally higher than foreign prices. In 2019, there were almost$3.1 billiononline purchases from foreign retail sites, growing 15% YoY. However, surveys indicate that the South Korean population is not overly concerned about high prices as only20% of online shopperspay attention to low-priced products.</p><p><blockquote>跨境电子商务的增长是该业务面临的最大威胁之一，因为韩国的价格普遍高于国外价格。2019年，外国零售网站的在线购物额近31亿美元，同比增长15%。然而，调查显示，韩国人并不过度担心高价，因为只有20%的网上购物者关注低价产品。</blockquote></p><p> Every e-commerce player faces significant competition as the industry promises significant growth opportunities and companies invest heavily to grab their market share. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)shows significant interest in the South Korean market as last year they announced their partnership with SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM). The partnership gives Amazon the right to obtain30% of 11Street, an e-commerce platform operating in South Korea, whose parent company is SK Telecom. In 2020, 11Street recorded revenues of $530 billion, which was about 14 times lower than Coupang's results. However, Amazon's partnership with the business will allow 11Street to introduce Amazon's products and services to its consumers which will create significant competitive advantages for the company.</p><p><blockquote>每个电子商务参与者都面临着激烈的竞争，因为该行业有望带来巨大的增长机会，并且公司大力投资以抢占市场份额。亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）对韩国市场表现出浓厚的兴趣，去年他们宣布与SK Telecom（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKM）建立合作伙伴关系。此次合作使亚马逊有权获得11Street 30%的股份，11Street是一家在韩国运营的电子商务平台，其母公司是SK Telecom。2020年，11Street的收入为5300亿美元，比Coupang的业绩低约14倍。然而，亚马逊与该业务的合作将使11Street能够向其消费者介绍亚马逊的产品和服务，这将为该公司创造显着的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have used a relative valuation analysis. We have collected data on the world's 15 biggest e-commerce stocks to calculate the value of CPNG. The average P/S FWD ratio of the 15 biggest e-commerce companies is 7.99, while the median ratio is 4.25. Coupang's P/S FWD is 2.57, which indicates that the stock is trading at a lower multiple compared to its peers. Calculating the PSG ratio of competitors, we see that the average PSG is 20.96, while the median PSG is 17.4. Calculating Coupang's P/S FWD based on these multiples, and analysts' estimated revenue growth rate of50.2%, we get an average P/S FWD of 10.52 and a median of 8.73. These ratios are significantly higher than Coupang's 2.57 multiple. However, the low multiple reflects the low profitability of the business. The company reported a TTM gross margin of 16.63%, significantly lower than peers' average margin of 43.45%, thus we need to incorporate the low profitability of the business in our calculations also.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的内在价值，我们使用了相对估值分析。我们收集了全球15只最大的电子商务股票的数据来计算CPNG的价值。15家最大电子商务公司的平均市盈率为7.99，中位数为4.25。Coupang的市盈率为2.57，这表明该股的市盈率低于同行。计算竞争对手的PSG比率，我们看到平均PSG为20.96，而中位数PSG为17.4。根据这些倍数以及分析师估计的50.2%的收入增长率计算Coupang的P/S FWD，我们得到的平均P/S FWD为10.52，中位数为8.73。这些比率明显高于Coupang的2.57倍。然而，低倍数反映了该业务的低盈利能力。该公司公布的TTM毛利率为16.63%，明显低于同行43.45%的平均利润率，因此我们还需要将该业务的低盈利能力纳入我们的计算中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae3e0938046e190132023d59e967802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, Data:SeekingAlpha.com,Finviz.com,GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据：SeekingAlpha.com、Finviz.com、GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, we have built a regression analysis where, for dependent variables, we have used natural logs of peers' estimated growth rates and TTM gross margins. As a result, we have an R Square of 55% and an F Stat of 7.34, which indicates that there is high statistical significance. Using coefficients of the regression equation, we get a P/S FWD ratio of 3.85, which is higher than Coupang's P/S FWD ratio of 2.57, and indicates that the stock is undervalued by 49%. So, we think that the intrinsic value of Coupang is $50; 12% higher than analysts' average price target of$44.7and 16.7% lower than analysts' highest price target of $60.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们建立了一个回归分析，对于因变量，我们使用了同行估计增长率和TTM毛利率的自然对数。因此，我们的R平方为55%，F Stat为7.34，这表明具有很高的统计显著性。使用回归方程的系数，我们得到的P/S FWD比率为3.85，高于Coupang的P/S FWD比率2.57，表明该股被低估了49%。因此，我们认为Coupang的内在价值为50美元；比分析师平均目标价44.7美元高12%，比分析师最高目标价60美元低16.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62c188e06bf9026705f537b306f13d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is expected that the South Korean retail market will exceed$530 billionby 2024. Considering a 35% e-commerce penetration rate and Coupang securing a 20% market share we get a $37.1 billion revenue prediction for Coupang. Taking our P/S ratio of 3.85, and multiplying it by our assumed sales figures, we get a $142.8 billion implied market cap, which is 140% higher than the current market cap and indicates a 34% annual return opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2024年，韩国零售市场将超过5300亿美元。考虑到35%的电子商务渗透率和Coupang获得20%的市场份额，我们对Coupang的收入预测为371亿美元。将我们的市盈率3.85乘以我们假设的销售数据，我们得到1,428亿美元的隐含市值，比当前市值高出140%，表明年回报机会为34%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market is growing quite rapidly. Coupang is the largest e-commerce player in South Korea partly because it managed to build a strong logistics network and delivers items quickly. Our valuation analyses indicate that the stock is undervalued by 50% compared to its peers, thus we see a strong price appreciation opportunity. We anticipate a 34% annual return until 2024, thus we assign a Buy rating to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场增长相当迅速。Coupang是韩国最大的电子商务公司，部分原因是它成功建立了强大的物流网络并快速交付商品。我们的估值分析表明，与同行相比，该股被低估了50%，因此我们看到了强劲的价格升值机会。我们预计到2024年的年回报率为34%，因此我们给予该股买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451167-coupang-strong-upside-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CPNG":"Coupang, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451167-coupang-strong-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104828360","content_text":"Summary\n\nCoupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.\nThe South Korean e-commerce market is the 5th largest market in the world.\nCoupang's consumer satisfaction levels are quite high.\n\nmetamorworks/iStock via Getty Images\nThe South Korean e-commerce market has already achieved significant market penetration. Coupang(NYSE:CPNG)achieved significant consumer satisfaction with users ranking their shopping app higher than the average for South Korean apps. Coupang has a built very strong delivery network that enables the company to reach 70% of the South Korean population in less than 10 minutes. Relative valuation analysis indicates that the stock is undervalued and suggests we can expect strong double-digit returns in upcoming years.\nThe E-commerce market has already achieved significant success in South Korea. Currently, South Korea is the 5th largest e-commerce market in the world surpassing $110 billion in total sales level throughout 2020.\nSource: emarketer.com\nSouth Korea has the second-highest e-commerce sales to GDP ratio at 6.8%, only beaten by China with a 15.6% ratio. At the same time, the country has the 3rdhighest e-commerce sales per capita ($2,135) after the UK and the USA.\nSource: Author Data taken:emarketer.com,World Bank GDP,World Bank Population\nSouth Korea has relatively high e-commerce penetration: about 72% of the population has used e-commerce services at least once. Though the percentage seems quite high, not all are using e-commerce frequently, and even active users are spending only a small proportion of their total budget on online shopping.\nSource: Visualistan.com\nThe situation is going to change as the younger generations are inclined towards the digital world and readily adopt new online services. 94.7% of the 20-29 age group has used e-commerce platforms, while only 60.02% of the 50-59 age group has ever used e-commerce services. The spending power of the younger generations grow in line with their age, providing long-term sustainable growth opportunities for e-commerce players.\nSource: Statista\nSouth Korea has a high internet penetration rate with99.2%of households having internet access via PC, mobile or other devices. Mobile online purchases are the biggest growth engine for the e-commerce sector: online purchases via PC grew by only10.3%in the 2017-2018 period and 5.67% in the 2018-2019 period. At the same time, purchases made via mobile phones increased by 31.7% in the 2017-2018 period and by 19.84% in the 2018-2019 period. Mobile purchases make up 61.5% of total e-commerce sales. South Korea has the highest smartphone penetration in the world: 96% of the total population owns a smartphone compared to 89% in the USA and 71% in China.\nCoupang's mobile applications are among the top 20 of South Korean applications. Coupang’s Shopping app is the 13th most popular mobile app in South Korea according to the SimilarWebranking system in Apple's App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL), while Coupang Eats is 12th. At the same time, in the Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG), the Coupang Shopping application is 15th. In South Korea,71.17% of mobile users use the Android operating system, while only 28.46% are iOS users. Thus, Google Play Store stats are more important for our analysis.\nSource: Statcounter.com\nThe Coupang shopping application has more than 583,000 reviews in the Google Play Store and the average rating is 4.2. More than 65% of users rated the app 5 stars. The rating of the app is significantly better than the average Korean app score of 3.39.\nSource: Appgrooves\nE-commerce penetration in South Korea jumped significantly in 2020. In 2019, the penetration rate was 20.8%, while in 2020 the number increased to 25.9%. In this respect, South Korea is ahead of the USA (14%), the UK (23.3%) and China (24.9%). These statistics indicate that the South Korean market is one step ahead of other countries' markets. It is estimated that the South Korean e-commerce market will continue its fast-paced growth and reach $150 billion revenues in 2024. Analysts estimate an8% GMV CAGRduring the 2021-2024 period.\nCoupang is growing faster than the total industry as the company was able to increase its market share significantly in 2020. In 2019, the company had a market share of18.1%, while in 2020 Coupang's share had increased to 24%. Meanwhile, its main competitors could not grow their market share percentages in 2020. The main rivals of the company are eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)owned Gmarket, WeMakePrice and Naver Shopping. According to Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities, the company can increase its market share by exceeding a30% levelin upcoming years.\nCoupang was founded in 2010, and since then has achieved a significant market share in South Korea. One of the biggest contributors to this fast growth was their fast delivery. Coupang's logistics business, Rocket Delivery, allows consumers to receive their orders in less than 24 hours from ordering. The company has built a strong end-to-end logistics network using its 200 warehouses and more than 100 logistics centers. According to the management,70% of the South Korean populationis living within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistics center. It creates a significant moat for the business as competitors would need to invest large amounts of cash to build similar logistics networks. Recently, Coupang has launched the Dawn Delivery service which delivers goods by 7 a.m., if the order is placed by midnight the day before. More than 3.3 million items are being ordered on the Coupang platform every day and 99.3% of all items are being delivered within 24 hours. It is worth mentioning that the fast delivery service has been achievable because South Korea is so densely populated. South Korea is the 23rd most densely populated country in the world with a density ratio of512 people per 1 km square. 81.4% of the population are living in cities, making the country the39thmost urbanized in the world.\nCoupang's different segments are interconnected, as the growth of one segment is bringing tailwinds for other segments. Coupang is investing heavily to grow its 1P business (their inventory offering) by expanding its product base and improving the quality of the service. These investments increase the level of consumer satisfaction and bring a significant number of consumers to the 3P business (3rd party marketplace). New consumers in the 3P segment increase the interest in new merchants on the platform; this is further expanding product variety, creating economic moat and attracting new consumers. Sellers are urged to move from traditional retail stores because this market is declining by7% YoYin South Korea, while on Coupang's platform 3rd party merchants grow their sales by an average of 87% YoY. So, due to large investments in the 1P business and the consumer base expansion in the 3P business, Coupang’s total business has grown at twice the rate of the total South Korean market over the past 2 years.\nThe company is actively encouraging more consumers to its platform: in Q2, the company recorded 26% active user growth, reaching17 million monthlyactive consumers. There seems to be a consumer base growth opportunity in South Korea, as it is estimated that there are about 37 million internet shoppers in the country. The company could not achieve significant growth by only expanding its consumer base, but it can record significant growth by increasing their revenue per consumer, which is still quite low. In the last quarter, the company managed to record a 36% revenue per consumer growth, due to the expansion of product and service bases.\nCoupang is also offering its employees incentives to invest their efforts into the growth of the business. Coupang is the first Korean company to make its frontline workers shareholders of the company: 39,000 employees got restricted stock awards at the IPO. Coupang employees are generally content with the firm as the company has a 4 out of 5-star rating. The CEO has a90% approvalrate, while 80% of employees would recommend joining the Coupang team to their friends. Employee’s rank \"career opportunities\" in the company a quite high, which is a very important factor to attract highly talented workers to the business.\nSource: Glassdoor.com\nCoupang recorded a $122 million EBITDA loss in Q2 2021. These losses come from investments in new segments of the company: direct investments in the Eats and Fresh segments amounted to $120 million in Q2. These investments seem quite justified as the new fields helped Coupang to record significant top-line growth. Particularly, the Fresh grocery revenues doubled in Q2 YoY, exceeding the $2 billion level, less than 3 years after its launch. Though the Eats and Fresh segments are not yet profitable, they are recording significant contribution margin improvements in recent quarters, and the management believes that they will replicate the profitability of the mature segments of the company. In the Fresh segment, the management was able to record a 1,000-basis point contribution margin improvement YoY, while in the Eats segment the loss per order decreased by 50% in last year. As the management sees low online penetration in these segments and high ROI opportunities, they are going to continue to invest aggressively to create long term value for investors.\nThe growing scale of the business helps Coupang to improve profitability margins. The gross margin was only5.08%in 2018, while in the last quarter the company recorded a gross margin of 16.8%. However, the margin includes an inventory write-off of $158 million which was caused by a fulfilment center fire. Excluding the consequences of the fire, the company reported an $816 million quarterly gross profit, a 86% YoY improvement, and the adjusted gross margin is 18.2%.\nThe company has significant opportunities to expand its business. One of the most interesting areas is fintech, as the company could provide consumers with its own payment platform to process their transactions, get loans for their purchases etc. LatAm, owner of the e-commerce business Mercadolibre(NASDAQ:MELI), realizes this opportunity quite successfully as athird of its revenuescome from the fintech segment. Coupang's management is rather cautious about this field as they prefer to invest in the e-commerce segment. Coupang's fintech offerings are at their early stages yet as the company tests opportunities in the sector. The management has a similar approach to international expansion. Currently, Coupang is working on business expansion in Japan and Taiwan, however, these initiatives are at their early stages and the management is not intending to invest large amounts of cash on these projects.\nRisks\nCross border e-commerce growth is one of the biggest threats for the business as prices in South Korea are generally higher than foreign prices. In 2019, there were almost$3.1 billiononline purchases from foreign retail sites, growing 15% YoY. However, surveys indicate that the South Korean population is not overly concerned about high prices as only20% of online shopperspay attention to low-priced products.\nEvery e-commerce player faces significant competition as the industry promises significant growth opportunities and companies invest heavily to grab their market share. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)shows significant interest in the South Korean market as last year they announced their partnership with SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM). The partnership gives Amazon the right to obtain30% of 11Street, an e-commerce platform operating in South Korea, whose parent company is SK Telecom. In 2020, 11Street recorded revenues of $530 billion, which was about 14 times lower than Coupang's results. However, Amazon's partnership with the business will allow 11Street to introduce Amazon's products and services to its consumers which will create significant competitive advantages for the company.\nValuation\nTo calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have used a relative valuation analysis. We have collected data on the world's 15 biggest e-commerce stocks to calculate the value of CPNG. The average P/S FWD ratio of the 15 biggest e-commerce companies is 7.99, while the median ratio is 4.25. Coupang's P/S FWD is 2.57, which indicates that the stock is trading at a lower multiple compared to its peers. Calculating the PSG ratio of competitors, we see that the average PSG is 20.96, while the median PSG is 17.4. Calculating Coupang's P/S FWD based on these multiples, and analysts' estimated revenue growth rate of50.2%, we get an average P/S FWD of 10.52 and a median of 8.73. These ratios are significantly higher than Coupang's 2.57 multiple. However, the low multiple reflects the low profitability of the business. The company reported a TTM gross margin of 16.63%, significantly lower than peers' average margin of 43.45%, thus we need to incorporate the low profitability of the business in our calculations also.\nSource: Author, Data:SeekingAlpha.com,Finviz.com,GuruFocus.com\nSo, we have built a regression analysis where, for dependent variables, we have used natural logs of peers' estimated growth rates and TTM gross margins. As a result, we have an R Square of 55% and an F Stat of 7.34, which indicates that there is high statistical significance. Using coefficients of the regression equation, we get a P/S FWD ratio of 3.85, which is higher than Coupang's P/S FWD ratio of 2.57, and indicates that the stock is undervalued by 49%. So, we think that the intrinsic value of Coupang is $50; 12% higher than analysts' average price target of$44.7and 16.7% lower than analysts' highest price target of $60.\nSource: Author\nIt is expected that the South Korean retail market will exceed$530 billionby 2024. Considering a 35% e-commerce penetration rate and Coupang securing a 20% market share we get a $37.1 billion revenue prediction for Coupang. Taking our P/S ratio of 3.85, and multiplying it by our assumed sales figures, we get a $142.8 billion implied market cap, which is 140% higher than the current market cap and indicates a 34% annual return opportunity.\nConclusion\nThe South Korean e-commerce market is growing quite rapidly. Coupang is the largest e-commerce player in South Korea partly because it managed to build a strong logistics network and delivers items quickly. Our valuation analyses indicate that the stock is undervalued by 50% compared to its peers, thus we see a strong price appreciation opportunity. We anticipate a 34% annual return until 2024, thus we assign a Buy rating to the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/835619573"}
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