29e8bc52
2021-08-23
Wow. Greqt
[呆住]
Coupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强大的上涨潜力</blockquote>
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Greqt<span>[呆住] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow. Greqt<span>[呆住] </span></p></body></html>","text":"Wow. Greqt[呆住]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835619573","repostId":1104828360,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104828360","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629709374,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104828360?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 17:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强大的上涨潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104828360","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCoupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.\nThe South Korean e-commerce market is t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Coupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.</li> <li>The South Korean e-commerce market is the 5th largest market in the world.</li> <li>Coupang's consumer satisfaction levels are quite high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e691e63819b7b0620d306fda210b11\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"862\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，Coupang 股票被低估。</li><li>韩国电子商务市场是世界第五大市场。</li><li>Coupang的消费者满意度相当高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market has already achieved significant market penetration. Coupang(NYSE:CPNG)achieved significant consumer satisfaction with users ranking their shopping app higher than the average for South Korean apps. Coupang has a built very strong delivery network that enables the company to reach 70% of the South Korean population in less than 10 minutes. Relative valuation analysis indicates that the stock is undervalued and suggests we can expect strong double-digit returns in upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场已经实现了显著的市场渗透。Coupang（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CPNG）获得了显着的消费者满意度，用户对其购物应用程序的排名高于韩国应用程序的平均水平。Coupang拥有一个非常强大的交付网络，使该公司能够在不到10分钟的时间内接触到70%的韩国人口。相对估值分析表明该股被低估，并表明我们可以期待未来几年强劲的两位数回报。</blockquote></p><p> The E-commerce market has already achieved significant success in South Korea. Currently, South Korea is the 5th largest e-commerce market in the world surpassing $110 billion in total sales level throughout 2020.</p><p><blockquote>电子商务市场在韩国已经取得了巨大的成功。目前，韩国是全球第五大电子商务市场，2020年总销售额超过1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922b387d1db16de8bef4fdf97be12804\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: emarketer.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：emarketer.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has the second-highest e-commerce sales to GDP ratio at 6.8%, only beaten by China with a 15.6% ratio. At the same time, the country has the 3rdhighest e-commerce sales per capita ($2,135) after the UK and the USA.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务销售额占GDP的比例为6.8%，仅次于中国的15.6%。与此同时，该国的人均电子商务销售额（2,135美元）位居第三，仅次于英国和美国。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228f28a7ed066b1bd408696b8282fe0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"121\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author Data taken:emarketer.com,World Bank GDP,World Bank Population</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据取自：emarketer.com、世界银行 GDP、世界银行人口</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has relatively high e-commerce penetration: about 72% of the population has used e-commerce services at least once. Though the percentage seems quite high, not all are using e-commerce frequently, and even active users are spending only a small proportion of their total budget on online shopping.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务普及率相对较高：约72%的人口至少使用过一次电子商务服务。虽然这个比例看起来相当高，但并不是所有人都经常使用电子商务，即使是活跃用户也只在网上购物上花费总预算的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c693b246783d1776bca4d504ed8d5369\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"845\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visualistan.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Visualistan.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation is going to change as the younger generations are inclined towards the digital world and readily adopt new online services. 94.7% of the 20-29 age group has used e-commerce platforms, while only 60.02% of the 50-59 age group has ever used e-commerce services. The spending power of the younger generations grow in line with their age, providing long-term sustainable growth opportunities for e-commerce players.</p><p><blockquote>随着年轻一代倾向于数字世界，并乐于采用新的在线服务，这种情况将会改变。20-29岁年龄组中有94.7%使用过电子商务平台，而50-59岁年龄组中仅60.02%使用过电子商务服务。年轻一代的消费能力与其年龄一致增长，为电子商务玩家提供了长期可持续增长的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40abd940c7c44fc18d7df77a7cc65113\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has a high internet penetration rate with99.2%of households having internet access via PC, mobile or other devices. Mobile online purchases are the biggest growth engine for the e-commerce sector: online purchases via PC grew by only10.3%in the 2017-2018 period and 5.67% in the 2018-2019 period. At the same time, purchases made via mobile phones increased by 31.7% in the 2017-2018 period and by 19.84% in the 2018-2019 period. Mobile purchases make up 61.5% of total e-commerce sales. South Korea has the highest smartphone penetration in the world: 96% of the total population owns a smartphone compared to 89% in the USA and 71% in China.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的互联网普及率很高，99.2%的家庭通过个人电脑、手机或其他设备接入互联网。移动网上购物是电子商务行业最大的增长引擎：2017-2018年期间，通过PC进行的网上购物仅增长10.3%，2018-2019年期间增长5.67%。与此同时，通过手机进行的购买在2017-2018年期间增加了31.7%，在2018-2019年期间增加了19.84%。移动购物占电子商务总销售额的61.5%。韩国是世界上智能手机普及率最高的国家：96%的总人口拥有智能手机，而美国和中国分别为89%和71%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's mobile applications are among the top 20 of South Korean applications. Coupang’s Shopping app is the 13th most popular mobile app in South Korea according to the SimilarWebranking system in Apple's App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL), while Coupang Eats is 12th. At the same time, in the Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG), the Coupang Shopping application is 15th. In South Korea,71.17% of mobile users use the Android operating system, while only 28.46% are iOS users. Thus, Google Play Store stats are more important for our analysis.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的移动应用跻身韩国应用前20名。根据苹果公司应用商店（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的类似网络排名系统，Coupang 的购物应用在韩国排名第 13 位，而 Coupang Eats 排名第 12 位。与此同时，在谷歌Play商店（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）中，Coupang购物应用程序排名第15位。在韩国，71.17%的移动用户使用Android操作系统，而只有28.46%是iOS用户。因此，Google Play商店统计数据对我们的分析更重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6eac4aab5f190785020e5bb169cfc8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statcounter.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Coupang shopping application has more than 583,000 reviews in the Google Play Store and the average rating is 4.2. More than 65% of users rated the app 5 stars. The rating of the app is significantly better than the average Korean app score of 3.39.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang购物应用在Google Play商店中有超过583,000条评论，平均评分为4.2。超过65%的用户给这款应用打了5颗星。该应用程序的评分明显优于韩国应用程序的平均得分3.39。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110d6671b18364eb3e71854b583c9fc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Appgrooves</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Appgrooves</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> E-commerce penetration in South Korea jumped significantly in 2020. In 2019, the penetration rate was 20.8%, while in 2020 the number increased to 25.9%. In this respect, South Korea is ahead of the USA (14%), the UK (23.3%) and China (24.9%). These statistics indicate that the South Korean market is one step ahead of other countries' markets. It is estimated that the South Korean e-commerce market will continue its fast-paced growth and reach $150 billion revenues in 2024. Analysts estimate an8% GMV CAGRduring the 2021-2024 period.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，韩国的电子商务渗透率大幅跃升。2019年，渗透率为20.8%，而2020年这一数字增加到25.9%。在这方面，韩国领先于美国（14%）、英国（23.3%）和中国（24.9%）。这些统计数据表明，韩国市场比其他国家市场领先一步。预计韩国电子商务市场将继续快速增长，2024年收入将达到1500亿美元。分析师预计 2021-2024 年期间 GMV CAGR 为 8%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is growing faster than the total industry as the company was able to increase its market share significantly in 2020. In 2019, the company had a market share of18.1%, while in 2020 Coupang's share had increased to 24%. Meanwhile, its main competitors could not grow their market share percentages in 2020. The main rivals of the company are eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)owned Gmarket, WeMakePrice and Naver Shopping. According to Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities, the company can increase its market share by exceeding a30% levelin upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的增长速度超过了整个行业，因为该公司能够在2020年大幅增加其市场份额。2019年，该公司的市场份额为18.1%，而2020年Coupang的份额增至24%。与此同时，其主要竞争对手在2020年无法增加市场份额。该公司的主要竞争对手是 eBay（纳斯达克股票代码：eBay）旗下的 Gmarket、WeMakePrice 和 Naver Shopping。元大证券全球资产配置主管Daniel Yoo表示，未来几年，该公司的市场份额可能会超过30%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang was founded in 2010, and since then has achieved a significant market share in South Korea. One of the biggest contributors to this fast growth was their fast delivery. Coupang's logistics business, Rocket Delivery, allows consumers to receive their orders in less than 24 hours from ordering. The company has built a strong end-to-end logistics network using its 200 warehouses and more than 100 logistics centers. According to the management,70% of the South Korean populationis living within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistics center. It creates a significant moat for the business as competitors would need to invest large amounts of cash to build similar logistics networks. Recently, Coupang has launched the Dawn Delivery service which delivers goods by 7 a.m., if the order is placed by midnight the day before. More than 3.3 million items are being ordered on the Coupang platform every day and 99.3% of all items are being delivered within 24 hours. It is worth mentioning that the fast delivery service has been achievable because South Korea is so densely populated. South Korea is the 23rd most densely populated country in the world with a density ratio of512 people per 1 km square. 81.4% of the population are living in cities, making the country the39thmost urbanized in the world.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang成立于2010年，此后在韩国获得了相当大的市场份额。这种快速增长的最大贡献者之一是他们的快速交付。Coupang的物流业务Rocket Delivery允许消费者在下单后不到24小时内收到订单。该公司利用其200个仓库和100多个物流中心建立了强大的端到端物流网络。据管理层称，70%的韩国人口居住在距离Coupang物流中心不到10分钟路程的地方。它为企业创造了一条重要的护城河，因为竞争对手需要投入大量现金来建立类似的物流网络。最近，Coupang推出了黎明送货服务，如果前一天午夜前下订单，该服务将在早上7点前送货。每天有超过330万件商品在Coupang平台上订购，99.3%的商品在24小时内交付。值得一提的是，快递服务之所以能够实现，是因为韩国人口密集。韩国是世界上人口第23多的国家，人口密度为每1平方公里512人。81.4%的人口居住在城市，使该国成为世界上第39个城市化程度最高的国家。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's different segments are interconnected, as the growth of one segment is bringing tailwinds for other segments. Coupang is investing heavily to grow its 1P business (their inventory offering) by expanding its product base and improving the quality of the service. These investments increase the level of consumer satisfaction and bring a significant number of consumers to the 3P business (3rd party marketplace). New consumers in the 3P segment increase the interest in new merchants on the platform; this is further expanding product variety, creating economic moat and attracting new consumers. Sellers are urged to move from traditional retail stores because this market is declining by7% YoYin South Korea, while on Coupang's platform 3rd party merchants grow their sales by an average of 87% YoY. So, due to large investments in the 1P business and the consumer base expansion in the 3P business, Coupang’s total business has grown at twice the rate of the total South Korean market over the past 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的不同部门是相互关联的，因为一个部门的增长会给其他部门带来推动力。Coupang正在大力投资，通过扩大其产品基础和提高服务质量来发展其1P业务（他们的库存产品）。这些投资提高了消费者满意度，并为3P业务（第三方市场）带来了大量消费者。3P细分市场的新消费者增加了对平台上新商家的兴趣；这是进一步扩大产品种类，创造经济护城河，吸引新消费者。卖家被敦促从传统零售店转移，因为该市场在韩国同比下降了7%，而在Coupang的平台上，第三方商家的销售额平均每年增长87%。因此，由于对 1P 业务的大量投资和 3P 业务消费者群体的扩大，Coupang 的总业务增长速度是韩国市场总增长速度的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The company is actively encouraging more consumers to its platform: in Q2, the company recorded 26% active user growth, reaching17 million monthlyactive consumers. There seems to be a consumer base growth opportunity in South Korea, as it is estimated that there are about 37 million internet shoppers in the country. The company could not achieve significant growth by only expanding its consumer base, but it can record significant growth by increasing their revenue per consumer, which is still quite low. In the last quarter, the company managed to record a 36% revenue per consumer growth, due to the expansion of product and service bases.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在积极鼓励更多消费者使用其平台：第二季度，该公司活跃用户增长了 26%，月活跃消费者达到 1700 万。韩国似乎有一个消费者基础增长的机会，因为据估计，该国约有3700万互联网购物者。该公司仅仅通过扩大消费者群体无法实现显着增长，但它可以通过增加人均收入来实现显着增长，而人均收入仍然很低。上一季度，由于产品和服务基础的扩大，该公司每位消费者的收入增长了 36%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is also offering its employees incentives to invest their efforts into the growth of the business. Coupang is the first Korean company to make its frontline workers shareholders of the company: 39,000 employees got restricted stock awards at the IPO. Coupang employees are generally content with the firm as the company has a 4 out of 5-star rating. The CEO has a90% approvalrate, while 80% of employees would recommend joining the Coupang team to their friends. Employee’s rank \"career opportunities\" in the company a quite high, which is a very important factor to attract highly talented workers to the business.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang还为员工提供激励措施，让他们努力发展业务。Coupang是第一家让一线员工成为公司股东的韩国公司：39,000名员工在IPO中获得了限制性股票奖励。Coupang员工普遍对该公司感到满意，因为该公司的评级为4星（满分5星）。首席执行官有90%的支持率，而80%的员工会向他们的朋友推荐加入Coupang团队。员工在公司中的“职业机会”排名相当高，这是吸引高素质员工加入公司的一个非常重要的因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f732667289dcdc80244f6b7e8b4405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Glassdoor.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Glassdoor.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Coupang recorded a $122 million EBITDA loss in Q2 2021. These losses come from investments in new segments of the company: direct investments in the Eats and Fresh segments amounted to $120 million in Q2. These investments seem quite justified as the new fields helped Coupang to record significant top-line growth. Particularly, the Fresh grocery revenues doubled in Q2 YoY, exceeding the $2 billion level, less than 3 years after its launch. Though the Eats and Fresh segments are not yet profitable, they are recording significant contribution margin improvements in recent quarters, and the management believes that they will replicate the profitability of the mature segments of the company. In the Fresh segment, the management was able to record a 1,000-basis point contribution margin improvement YoY, while in the Eats segment the loss per order decreased by 50% in last year. As the management sees low online penetration in these segments and high ROI opportunities, they are going to continue to invest aggressively to create long term value for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang 2021 年第二季度 EBITDA 亏损 1.22 亿美元。这些损失来自对公司新部门的投资：第二季度对 Eats 和 Fresh 部门的直接投资额达 1.2 亿美元。这些投资似乎非常合理，因为新油田帮助 Coupang 实现了显着的营收增长。特别是，生鲜杂货收入在第二季度同比翻了一番，超过20亿美元的水平，推出后不到3年。尽管 Eats 和 Fresh 部门尚未盈利，但它们在最近几个季度的贡献利润率显着提高，管理层相信它们将复制公司成熟部门的盈利能力。在生鲜领域，管理层的贡献利润率同比提高了 1,000 个基点，而在 Eats 领域，去年每个订单的损失减少了 50%。由于管理层看到这些细分市场的在线渗透率较低，但投资回报率较高，他们将继续积极投资，为投资者创造长期价值。</blockquote></p><p> The growing scale of the business helps Coupang to improve profitability margins. The gross margin was only5.08%in 2018, while in the last quarter the company recorded a gross margin of 16.8%. However, the margin includes an inventory write-off of $158 million which was caused by a fulfilment center fire. Excluding the consequences of the fire, the company reported an $816 million quarterly gross profit, a 86% YoY improvement, and the adjusted gross margin is 18.2%.</p><p><blockquote>业务规模的不断扩大有助于Coupang提高利润率。2018年毛利率仅为5.08%，而上一季度公司毛利率为16.8%。然而，利润率包括由履行中心火灾造成的 1.58 亿美元库存冲销。剔除火灾后果，该公司公布季度毛利润为8.16亿美元，同比增长86%，调整后毛利率为18.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has significant opportunities to expand its business. One of the most interesting areas is fintech, as the company could provide consumers with its own payment platform to process their transactions, get loans for their purchases etc. LatAm, owner of the e-commerce business Mercadolibre(NASDAQ:MELI), realizes this opportunity quite successfully as athird of its revenuescome from the fintech segment. Coupang's management is rather cautious about this field as they prefer to invest in the e-commerce segment. Coupang's fintech offerings are at their early stages yet as the company tests opportunities in the sector. The management has a similar approach to international expansion. Currently, Coupang is working on business expansion in Japan and Taiwan, however, these initiatives are at their early stages and the management is not intending to invest large amounts of cash on these projects.</p><p><blockquote>该公司有很大的机会扩大其业务。最有趣的领域之一是金融科技，因为该公司可以为消费者提供自己的支付平台来处理交易、获得购物贷款等。电子商务企业 Mercadolibre（纳斯达克股票代码：MELI）的所有者 LatAm 非常成功地意识到了这一机会，因为其收入的三分之一来自金融科技部门。Coupang 的管理层对这一领域相当谨慎，因为他们更喜欢投资电子商务领域。Coupang 的金融科技产品仍处于早期阶段，该公司正在测试该领域的机会。管理层对国际扩张也有类似的方法。目前，Coupang正致力于日本及台湾的业务拓展，然而，该等计划尚处于早期阶段，管理层无意在该等项目上投入大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Cross border e-commerce growth is one of the biggest threats for the business as prices in South Korea are generally higher than foreign prices. In 2019, there were almost$3.1 billiononline purchases from foreign retail sites, growing 15% YoY. However, surveys indicate that the South Korean population is not overly concerned about high prices as only20% of online shopperspay attention to low-priced products.</p><p><blockquote>跨境电子商务增长是该业务面临的最大威胁之一，因为韩国的价格通常高于国外的价格。2019 年，国外零售网站的在线购买额接近 31 亿美元，同比增长 15%。然而，调查显示，韩国人并不太担心高价，因为只有20%的网上购物者关注低价产品。</blockquote></p><p> Every e-commerce player faces significant competition as the industry promises significant growth opportunities and companies invest heavily to grab their market share. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)shows significant interest in the South Korean market as last year they announced their partnership with SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM). The partnership gives Amazon the right to obtain30% of 11Street, an e-commerce platform operating in South Korea, whose parent company is SK Telecom. In 2020, 11Street recorded revenues of $530 billion, which was about 14 times lower than Coupang's results. However, Amazon's partnership with the business will allow 11Street to introduce Amazon's products and services to its consumers which will create significant competitive advantages for the company.</p><p><blockquote>每个电子商务参与者都面临着激烈的竞争，因为该行业承诺巨大的增长机会，公司大力投资以抢占市场份额。亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）去年宣布与 SK Telecom（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKM）建立合作伙伴关系，对韩国市场表现出浓厚的兴趣。此次合作使亚马逊有权获得11Street 30%的股份，11Street是一家在韩国运营的电子商务平台，其母公司是SK电信。2020年，11Street的收入为5300亿美元，比Coupang的业绩低约14倍。然而，亚马逊与该企业的合作将使11Street能够向其消费者介绍亚马逊的产品和服务，这将为该公司创造显著的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have used a relative valuation analysis. We have collected data on the world's 15 biggest e-commerce stocks to calculate the value of CPNG. The average P/S FWD ratio of the 15 biggest e-commerce companies is 7.99, while the median ratio is 4.25. Coupang's P/S FWD is 2.57, which indicates that the stock is trading at a lower multiple compared to its peers. Calculating the PSG ratio of competitors, we see that the average PSG is 20.96, while the median PSG is 17.4. Calculating Coupang's P/S FWD based on these multiples, and analysts' estimated revenue growth rate of50.2%, we get an average P/S FWD of 10.52 and a median of 8.73. These ratios are significantly higher than Coupang's 2.57 multiple. However, the low multiple reflects the low profitability of the business. The company reported a TTM gross margin of 16.63%, significantly lower than peers' average margin of 43.45%, thus we need to incorporate the low profitability of the business in our calculations also.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的内在价值，我们使用了相对估值分析。我们收集了全球15只最大的电子商务股票的数据来计算CPNG的价值。15家最大的电子商务公司的平均市盈率为7.99，而中位数为4.25。Coupang 的市盈率为 2.57，这表明该股的交易市盈率低于同行。计算竞争对手的PSG比率，我们看到平均PSG为20.96，而中位数PSG为17.4。根据这些倍数和分析师估计的 50.2% 的收入增长率来计算 Coupang 的市盈率，我们得到平均市盈率为 10.52，中位数为 8.73。这些比率明显高于Coupang的2.57倍。然而，低倍数反映了业务的低盈利能力。该公司报告的 TTM 毛利率为 16.63%，明显低于同行平均利润率 43.45%，因此我们也需要在计算中考虑该业务的低盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae3e0938046e190132023d59e967802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, Data:SeekingAlpha.com,Finviz.com,GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者、数据：SeekingAlpha.com、Finviz.com、GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, we have built a regression analysis where, for dependent variables, we have used natural logs of peers' estimated growth rates and TTM gross margins. As a result, we have an R Square of 55% and an F Stat of 7.34, which indicates that there is high statistical significance. Using coefficients of the regression equation, we get a P/S FWD ratio of 3.85, which is higher than Coupang's P/S FWD ratio of 2.57, and indicates that the stock is undervalued by 49%. So, we think that the intrinsic value of Coupang is $50; 12% higher than analysts' average price target of$44.7and 16.7% lower than analysts' highest price target of $60.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们建立了一个回归分析，对于因变量，我们使用了同行估计增长率和TTM毛利率的自然对数。因此，我们的R平方为55%，F统计为7.34，这表明有很高的统计显著性。使用回归方程的系数，我们得到市盈率为3.85，高于Coupang的市盈率2.57，表明该股被低估了49%。因此，我们认为 Coupang 的内在价值为 50 美元；比分析师平均目标价 44.7 美元高出 12%，比分析师最高目标价 60 美元低 16.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62c188e06bf9026705f537b306f13d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is expected that the South Korean retail market will exceed$530 billionby 2024. Considering a 35% e-commerce penetration rate and Coupang securing a 20% market share we get a $37.1 billion revenue prediction for Coupang. Taking our P/S ratio of 3.85, and multiplying it by our assumed sales figures, we get a $142.8 billion implied market cap, which is 140% higher than the current market cap and indicates a 34% annual return opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2024年，韩国零售市场将超过5300亿美元。考虑到35%的电子商务渗透率和Coupang获得20%的市场份额，我们对Coupang的收入预测为371亿美元。将我们的市盈率为 3.85，乘以我们假设的销售数字，我们得到 1,428 亿美元的隐含市值，比当前市值高出 140%，表明年回报机会为 34%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market is growing quite rapidly. Coupang is the largest e-commerce player in South Korea partly because it managed to build a strong logistics network and delivers items quickly. Our valuation analyses indicate that the stock is undervalued by 50% compared to its peers, thus we see a strong price appreciation opportunity. We anticipate a 34% annual return until 2024, thus we assign a Buy rating to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场增长相当迅速。Coupang是韩国最大的电子商务公司，部分原因是它设法建立了强大的物流网络并快速交付商品。我们的估值分析表明，与同行相比，该股被低估了 50%，因此我们看到了很大的价格上涨机会。我们预计到 2024 年的年回报率为 34%，因此我们给予该股买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强大的上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoupang: Strong Upside Potential<blockquote>Coupang：强大的上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 17:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Coupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.</li> <li>The South Korean e-commerce market is the 5th largest market in the world.</li> <li>Coupang's consumer satisfaction levels are quite high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e691e63819b7b0620d306fda210b11\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"862\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，Coupang 股票被低估。</li><li>韩国电子商务市场是世界第五大市场。</li><li>Coupang的消费者满意度相当高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market has already achieved significant market penetration. Coupang(NYSE:CPNG)achieved significant consumer satisfaction with users ranking their shopping app higher than the average for South Korean apps. Coupang has a built very strong delivery network that enables the company to reach 70% of the South Korean population in less than 10 minutes. Relative valuation analysis indicates that the stock is undervalued and suggests we can expect strong double-digit returns in upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场已经实现了显著的市场渗透。Coupang（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CPNG）获得了显着的消费者满意度，用户对其购物应用程序的排名高于韩国应用程序的平均水平。Coupang拥有一个非常强大的交付网络，使该公司能够在不到10分钟的时间内接触到70%的韩国人口。相对估值分析表明该股被低估，并表明我们可以期待未来几年强劲的两位数回报。</blockquote></p><p> The E-commerce market has already achieved significant success in South Korea. Currently, South Korea is the 5th largest e-commerce market in the world surpassing $110 billion in total sales level throughout 2020.</p><p><blockquote>电子商务市场在韩国已经取得了巨大的成功。目前，韩国是全球第五大电子商务市场，2020年总销售额超过1100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922b387d1db16de8bef4fdf97be12804\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: emarketer.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：emarketer.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has the second-highest e-commerce sales to GDP ratio at 6.8%, only beaten by China with a 15.6% ratio. At the same time, the country has the 3rdhighest e-commerce sales per capita ($2,135) after the UK and the USA.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务销售额占GDP的比例为6.8%，仅次于中国的15.6%。与此同时，该国的人均电子商务销售额（2,135美元）位居第三，仅次于英国和美国。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228f28a7ed066b1bd408696b8282fe0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"121\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author Data taken:emarketer.com,World Bank GDP,World Bank Population</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据取自：emarketer.com、世界银行 GDP、世界银行人口</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has relatively high e-commerce penetration: about 72% of the population has used e-commerce services at least once. Though the percentage seems quite high, not all are using e-commerce frequently, and even active users are spending only a small proportion of their total budget on online shopping.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的电子商务普及率相对较高：约72%的人口至少使用过一次电子商务服务。虽然这个比例看起来相当高，但并不是所有人都经常使用电子商务，即使是活跃用户也只在网上购物上花费总预算的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c693b246783d1776bca4d504ed8d5369\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"845\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visualistan.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Visualistan.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation is going to change as the younger generations are inclined towards the digital world and readily adopt new online services. 94.7% of the 20-29 age group has used e-commerce platforms, while only 60.02% of the 50-59 age group has ever used e-commerce services. The spending power of the younger generations grow in line with their age, providing long-term sustainable growth opportunities for e-commerce players.</p><p><blockquote>随着年轻一代倾向于数字世界，并乐于采用新的在线服务，这种情况将会改变。20-29岁年龄组中有94.7%使用过电子商务平台，而50-59岁年龄组中仅60.02%使用过电子商务服务。年轻一代的消费能力与其年龄一致增长，为电子商务玩家提供了长期可持续增长的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40abd940c7c44fc18d7df77a7cc65113\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> South Korea has a high internet penetration rate with99.2%of households having internet access via PC, mobile or other devices. Mobile online purchases are the biggest growth engine for the e-commerce sector: online purchases via PC grew by only10.3%in the 2017-2018 period and 5.67% in the 2018-2019 period. At the same time, purchases made via mobile phones increased by 31.7% in the 2017-2018 period and by 19.84% in the 2018-2019 period. Mobile purchases make up 61.5% of total e-commerce sales. South Korea has the highest smartphone penetration in the world: 96% of the total population owns a smartphone compared to 89% in the USA and 71% in China.</p><p><blockquote>韩国的互联网普及率很高，99.2%的家庭通过个人电脑、手机或其他设备接入互联网。移动网上购物是电子商务行业最大的增长引擎：2017-2018年期间，通过PC进行的网上购物仅增长10.3%，2018-2019年期间增长5.67%。与此同时，通过手机进行的购买在2017-2018年期间增加了31.7%，在2018-2019年期间增加了19.84%。移动购物占电子商务总销售额的61.5%。韩国是世界上智能手机普及率最高的国家：96%的总人口拥有智能手机，而美国和中国分别为89%和71%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's mobile applications are among the top 20 of South Korean applications. Coupang’s Shopping app is the 13th most popular mobile app in South Korea according to the SimilarWebranking system in Apple's App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL), while Coupang Eats is 12th. At the same time, in the Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG), the Coupang Shopping application is 15th. In South Korea,71.17% of mobile users use the Android operating system, while only 28.46% are iOS users. Thus, Google Play Store stats are more important for our analysis.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的移动应用跻身韩国应用前20名。根据苹果公司应用商店（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的类似网络排名系统，Coupang 的购物应用在韩国排名第 13 位，而 Coupang Eats 排名第 12 位。与此同时，在谷歌Play商店（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）中，Coupang购物应用程序排名第15位。在韩国，71.17%的移动用户使用Android操作系统，而只有28.46%是iOS用户。因此，Google Play商店统计数据对我们的分析更重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6eac4aab5f190785020e5bb169cfc8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statcounter.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Coupang shopping application has more than 583,000 reviews in the Google Play Store and the average rating is 4.2. More than 65% of users rated the app 5 stars. The rating of the app is significantly better than the average Korean app score of 3.39.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang购物应用在Google Play商店中有超过583,000条评论，平均评分为4.2。超过65%的用户给这款应用打了5颗星。该应用程序的评分明显优于韩国应用程序的平均得分3.39。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110d6671b18364eb3e71854b583c9fc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Appgrooves</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Appgrooves</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> E-commerce penetration in South Korea jumped significantly in 2020. In 2019, the penetration rate was 20.8%, while in 2020 the number increased to 25.9%. In this respect, South Korea is ahead of the USA (14%), the UK (23.3%) and China (24.9%). These statistics indicate that the South Korean market is one step ahead of other countries' markets. It is estimated that the South Korean e-commerce market will continue its fast-paced growth and reach $150 billion revenues in 2024. Analysts estimate an8% GMV CAGRduring the 2021-2024 period.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，韩国的电子商务渗透率大幅跃升。2019年，渗透率为20.8%，而2020年这一数字增加到25.9%。在这方面，韩国领先于美国（14%）、英国（23.3%）和中国（24.9%）。这些统计数据表明，韩国市场比其他国家市场领先一步。预计韩国电子商务市场将继续快速增长，2024年收入将达到1500亿美元。分析师预计 2021-2024 年期间 GMV CAGR 为 8%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is growing faster than the total industry as the company was able to increase its market share significantly in 2020. In 2019, the company had a market share of18.1%, while in 2020 Coupang's share had increased to 24%. Meanwhile, its main competitors could not grow their market share percentages in 2020. The main rivals of the company are eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)owned Gmarket, WeMakePrice and Naver Shopping. According to Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities, the company can increase its market share by exceeding a30% levelin upcoming years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的增长速度超过了整个行业，因为该公司能够在2020年大幅增加其市场份额。2019年，该公司的市场份额为18.1%，而2020年Coupang的份额增至24%。与此同时，其主要竞争对手在2020年无法增加市场份额。该公司的主要竞争对手是 eBay（纳斯达克股票代码：eBay）旗下的 Gmarket、WeMakePrice 和 Naver Shopping。元大证券全球资产配置主管Daniel Yoo表示，未来几年，该公司的市场份额可能会超过30%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang was founded in 2010, and since then has achieved a significant market share in South Korea. One of the biggest contributors to this fast growth was their fast delivery. Coupang's logistics business, Rocket Delivery, allows consumers to receive their orders in less than 24 hours from ordering. The company has built a strong end-to-end logistics network using its 200 warehouses and more than 100 logistics centers. According to the management,70% of the South Korean populationis living within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistics center. It creates a significant moat for the business as competitors would need to invest large amounts of cash to build similar logistics networks. Recently, Coupang has launched the Dawn Delivery service which delivers goods by 7 a.m., if the order is placed by midnight the day before. More than 3.3 million items are being ordered on the Coupang platform every day and 99.3% of all items are being delivered within 24 hours. It is worth mentioning that the fast delivery service has been achievable because South Korea is so densely populated. South Korea is the 23rd most densely populated country in the world with a density ratio of512 people per 1 km square. 81.4% of the population are living in cities, making the country the39thmost urbanized in the world.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang成立于2010年，此后在韩国获得了相当大的市场份额。这种快速增长的最大贡献者之一是他们的快速交付。Coupang的物流业务Rocket Delivery允许消费者在下单后不到24小时内收到订单。该公司利用其200个仓库和100多个物流中心建立了强大的端到端物流网络。据管理层称，70%的韩国人口居住在距离Coupang物流中心不到10分钟路程的地方。它为企业创造了一条重要的护城河，因为竞争对手需要投入大量现金来建立类似的物流网络。最近，Coupang推出了黎明送货服务，如果前一天午夜前下订单，该服务将在早上7点前送货。每天有超过330万件商品在Coupang平台上订购，99.3%的商品在24小时内交付。值得一提的是，快递服务之所以能够实现，是因为韩国人口密集。韩国是世界上人口第23多的国家，人口密度为每1平方公里512人。81.4%的人口居住在城市，使该国成为世界上第39个城市化程度最高的国家。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang's different segments are interconnected, as the growth of one segment is bringing tailwinds for other segments. Coupang is investing heavily to grow its 1P business (their inventory offering) by expanding its product base and improving the quality of the service. These investments increase the level of consumer satisfaction and bring a significant number of consumers to the 3P business (3rd party marketplace). New consumers in the 3P segment increase the interest in new merchants on the platform; this is further expanding product variety, creating economic moat and attracting new consumers. Sellers are urged to move from traditional retail stores because this market is declining by7% YoYin South Korea, while on Coupang's platform 3rd party merchants grow their sales by an average of 87% YoY. So, due to large investments in the 1P business and the consumer base expansion in the 3P business, Coupang’s total business has grown at twice the rate of the total South Korean market over the past 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang的不同部门是相互关联的，因为一个部门的增长会给其他部门带来推动力。Coupang正在大力投资，通过扩大其产品基础和提高服务质量来发展其1P业务（他们的库存产品）。这些投资提高了消费者满意度，并为3P业务（第三方市场）带来了大量消费者。3P细分市场的新消费者增加了对平台上新商家的兴趣；这是进一步扩大产品种类，创造经济护城河，吸引新消费者。卖家被敦促从传统零售店转移，因为该市场在韩国同比下降了7%，而在Coupang的平台上，第三方商家的销售额平均每年增长87%。因此，由于对 1P 业务的大量投资和 3P 业务消费者群体的扩大，Coupang 的总业务增长速度是韩国市场总增长速度的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The company is actively encouraging more consumers to its platform: in Q2, the company recorded 26% active user growth, reaching17 million monthlyactive consumers. There seems to be a consumer base growth opportunity in South Korea, as it is estimated that there are about 37 million internet shoppers in the country. The company could not achieve significant growth by only expanding its consumer base, but it can record significant growth by increasing their revenue per consumer, which is still quite low. In the last quarter, the company managed to record a 36% revenue per consumer growth, due to the expansion of product and service bases.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在积极鼓励更多消费者使用其平台：第二季度，该公司活跃用户增长了 26%，月活跃消费者达到 1700 万。韩国似乎有一个消费者基础增长的机会，因为据估计，该国约有3700万互联网购物者。该公司仅仅通过扩大消费者群体无法实现显着增长，但它可以通过增加人均收入来实现显着增长，而人均收入仍然很低。上一季度，由于产品和服务基础的扩大，该公司每位消费者的收入增长了 36%。</blockquote></p><p> Coupang is also offering its employees incentives to invest their efforts into the growth of the business. Coupang is the first Korean company to make its frontline workers shareholders of the company: 39,000 employees got restricted stock awards at the IPO. Coupang employees are generally content with the firm as the company has a 4 out of 5-star rating. The CEO has a90% approvalrate, while 80% of employees would recommend joining the Coupang team to their friends. Employee’s rank \"career opportunities\" in the company a quite high, which is a very important factor to attract highly talented workers to the business.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang还为员工提供激励措施，让他们努力发展业务。Coupang是第一家让一线员工成为公司股东的韩国公司：39,000名员工在IPO中获得了限制性股票奖励。Coupang员工普遍对该公司感到满意，因为该公司的评级为4星（满分5星）。首席执行官有90%的支持率，而80%的员工会向他们的朋友推荐加入Coupang团队。员工在公司中的“职业机会”排名相当高，这是吸引高素质员工加入公司的一个非常重要的因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f732667289dcdc80244f6b7e8b4405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Glassdoor.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Glassdoor.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Coupang recorded a $122 million EBITDA loss in Q2 2021. These losses come from investments in new segments of the company: direct investments in the Eats and Fresh segments amounted to $120 million in Q2. These investments seem quite justified as the new fields helped Coupang to record significant top-line growth. Particularly, the Fresh grocery revenues doubled in Q2 YoY, exceeding the $2 billion level, less than 3 years after its launch. Though the Eats and Fresh segments are not yet profitable, they are recording significant contribution margin improvements in recent quarters, and the management believes that they will replicate the profitability of the mature segments of the company. In the Fresh segment, the management was able to record a 1,000-basis point contribution margin improvement YoY, while in the Eats segment the loss per order decreased by 50% in last year. As the management sees low online penetration in these segments and high ROI opportunities, they are going to continue to invest aggressively to create long term value for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Coupang 2021 年第二季度 EBITDA 亏损 1.22 亿美元。这些损失来自对公司新部门的投资：第二季度对 Eats 和 Fresh 部门的直接投资额达 1.2 亿美元。这些投资似乎非常合理，因为新油田帮助 Coupang 实现了显着的营收增长。特别是，生鲜杂货收入在第二季度同比翻了一番，超过20亿美元的水平，推出后不到3年。尽管 Eats 和 Fresh 部门尚未盈利，但它们在最近几个季度的贡献利润率显着提高，管理层相信它们将复制公司成熟部门的盈利能力。在生鲜领域，管理层的贡献利润率同比提高了 1,000 个基点，而在 Eats 领域，去年每个订单的损失减少了 50%。由于管理层看到这些细分市场的在线渗透率较低，但投资回报率较高，他们将继续积极投资，为投资者创造长期价值。</blockquote></p><p> The growing scale of the business helps Coupang to improve profitability margins. The gross margin was only5.08%in 2018, while in the last quarter the company recorded a gross margin of 16.8%. However, the margin includes an inventory write-off of $158 million which was caused by a fulfilment center fire. Excluding the consequences of the fire, the company reported an $816 million quarterly gross profit, a 86% YoY improvement, and the adjusted gross margin is 18.2%.</p><p><blockquote>业务规模的不断扩大有助于Coupang提高利润率。2018年毛利率仅为5.08%，而上一季度公司毛利率为16.8%。然而，利润率包括由履行中心火灾造成的 1.58 亿美元库存冲销。剔除火灾后果，该公司公布季度毛利润为8.16亿美元，同比增长86%，调整后毛利率为18.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has significant opportunities to expand its business. One of the most interesting areas is fintech, as the company could provide consumers with its own payment platform to process their transactions, get loans for their purchases etc. LatAm, owner of the e-commerce business Mercadolibre(NASDAQ:MELI), realizes this opportunity quite successfully as athird of its revenuescome from the fintech segment. Coupang's management is rather cautious about this field as they prefer to invest in the e-commerce segment. Coupang's fintech offerings are at their early stages yet as the company tests opportunities in the sector. The management has a similar approach to international expansion. Currently, Coupang is working on business expansion in Japan and Taiwan, however, these initiatives are at their early stages and the management is not intending to invest large amounts of cash on these projects.</p><p><blockquote>该公司有很大的机会扩大其业务。最有趣的领域之一是金融科技，因为该公司可以为消费者提供自己的支付平台来处理交易、获得购物贷款等。电子商务企业 Mercadolibre（纳斯达克股票代码：MELI）的所有者 LatAm 非常成功地意识到了这一机会，因为其收入的三分之一来自金融科技部门。Coupang 的管理层对这一领域相当谨慎，因为他们更喜欢投资电子商务领域。Coupang 的金融科技产品仍处于早期阶段，该公司正在测试该领域的机会。管理层对国际扩张也有类似的方法。目前，Coupang正致力于日本及台湾的业务拓展，然而，该等计划尚处于早期阶段，管理层无意在该等项目上投入大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Cross border e-commerce growth is one of the biggest threats for the business as prices in South Korea are generally higher than foreign prices. In 2019, there were almost$3.1 billiononline purchases from foreign retail sites, growing 15% YoY. However, surveys indicate that the South Korean population is not overly concerned about high prices as only20% of online shopperspay attention to low-priced products.</p><p><blockquote>跨境电子商务增长是该业务面临的最大威胁之一，因为韩国的价格通常高于国外的价格。2019 年，国外零售网站的在线购买额接近 31 亿美元，同比增长 15%。然而，调查显示，韩国人并不太担心高价，因为只有20%的网上购物者关注低价产品。</blockquote></p><p> Every e-commerce player faces significant competition as the industry promises significant growth opportunities and companies invest heavily to grab their market share. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)shows significant interest in the South Korean market as last year they announced their partnership with SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM). The partnership gives Amazon the right to obtain30% of 11Street, an e-commerce platform operating in South Korea, whose parent company is SK Telecom. In 2020, 11Street recorded revenues of $530 billion, which was about 14 times lower than Coupang's results. However, Amazon's partnership with the business will allow 11Street to introduce Amazon's products and services to its consumers which will create significant competitive advantages for the company.</p><p><blockquote>每个电子商务参与者都面临着激烈的竞争，因为该行业承诺巨大的增长机会，公司大力投资以抢占市场份额。亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）去年宣布与 SK Telecom（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKM）建立合作伙伴关系，对韩国市场表现出浓厚的兴趣。此次合作使亚马逊有权获得11Street 30%的股份，11Street是一家在韩国运营的电子商务平台，其母公司是SK电信。2020年，11Street的收入为5300亿美元，比Coupang的业绩低约14倍。然而，亚马逊与该企业的合作将使11Street能够向其消费者介绍亚马逊的产品和服务，这将为该公司创造显著的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have used a relative valuation analysis. We have collected data on the world's 15 biggest e-commerce stocks to calculate the value of CPNG. The average P/S FWD ratio of the 15 biggest e-commerce companies is 7.99, while the median ratio is 4.25. Coupang's P/S FWD is 2.57, which indicates that the stock is trading at a lower multiple compared to its peers. Calculating the PSG ratio of competitors, we see that the average PSG is 20.96, while the median PSG is 17.4. Calculating Coupang's P/S FWD based on these multiples, and analysts' estimated revenue growth rate of50.2%, we get an average P/S FWD of 10.52 and a median of 8.73. These ratios are significantly higher than Coupang's 2.57 multiple. However, the low multiple reflects the low profitability of the business. The company reported a TTM gross margin of 16.63%, significantly lower than peers' average margin of 43.45%, thus we need to incorporate the low profitability of the business in our calculations also.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的内在价值，我们使用了相对估值分析。我们收集了全球15只最大的电子商务股票的数据来计算CPNG的价值。15家最大的电子商务公司的平均市盈率为7.99，而中位数为4.25。Coupang 的市盈率为 2.57，这表明该股的交易市盈率低于同行。计算竞争对手的PSG比率，我们看到平均PSG为20.96，而中位数PSG为17.4。根据这些倍数和分析师估计的 50.2% 的收入增长率来计算 Coupang 的市盈率，我们得到平均市盈率为 10.52，中位数为 8.73。这些比率明显高于Coupang的2.57倍。然而，低倍数反映了业务的低盈利能力。该公司报告的 TTM 毛利率为 16.63%，明显低于同行平均利润率 43.45%，因此我们也需要在计算中考虑该业务的低盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae3e0938046e190132023d59e967802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, Data:SeekingAlpha.com,Finviz.com,GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者、数据：SeekingAlpha.com、Finviz.com、GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, we have built a regression analysis where, for dependent variables, we have used natural logs of peers' estimated growth rates and TTM gross margins. As a result, we have an R Square of 55% and an F Stat of 7.34, which indicates that there is high statistical significance. Using coefficients of the regression equation, we get a P/S FWD ratio of 3.85, which is higher than Coupang's P/S FWD ratio of 2.57, and indicates that the stock is undervalued by 49%. So, we think that the intrinsic value of Coupang is $50; 12% higher than analysts' average price target of$44.7and 16.7% lower than analysts' highest price target of $60.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们建立了一个回归分析，对于因变量，我们使用了同行估计增长率和TTM毛利率的自然对数。因此，我们的R平方为55%，F统计为7.34，这表明有很高的统计显著性。使用回归方程的系数，我们得到市盈率为3.85，高于Coupang的市盈率2.57，表明该股被低估了49%。因此，我们认为 Coupang 的内在价值为 50 美元；比分析师平均目标价 44.7 美元高出 12%，比分析师最高目标价 60 美元低 16.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62c188e06bf9026705f537b306f13d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is expected that the South Korean retail market will exceed$530 billionby 2024. Considering a 35% e-commerce penetration rate and Coupang securing a 20% market share we get a $37.1 billion revenue prediction for Coupang. Taking our P/S ratio of 3.85, and multiplying it by our assumed sales figures, we get a $142.8 billion implied market cap, which is 140% higher than the current market cap and indicates a 34% annual return opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2024年，韩国零售市场将超过5300亿美元。考虑到35%的电子商务渗透率和Coupang获得20%的市场份额，我们对Coupang的收入预测为371亿美元。将我们的市盈率为 3.85，乘以我们假设的销售数字，我们得到 1,428 亿美元的隐含市值，比当前市值高出 140%，表明年回报机会为 34%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The South Korean e-commerce market is growing quite rapidly. Coupang is the largest e-commerce player in South Korea partly because it managed to build a strong logistics network and delivers items quickly. Our valuation analyses indicate that the stock is undervalued by 50% compared to its peers, thus we see a strong price appreciation opportunity. We anticipate a 34% annual return until 2024, thus we assign a Buy rating to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>韩国电子商务市场增长相当迅速。Coupang是韩国最大的电子商务公司，部分原因是它设法建立了强大的物流网络并快速交付商品。我们的估值分析表明，与同行相比，该股被低估了 50%，因此我们看到了很大的价格上涨机会。我们预计到 2024 年的年回报率为 34%，因此我们给予该股买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451167-coupang-strong-upside-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CPNG":"Coupang, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451167-coupang-strong-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104828360","content_text":"Summary\n\nCoupang stock is undervalued compared to its peers.\nThe South Korean e-commerce market is the 5th largest market in the world.\nCoupang's consumer satisfaction levels are quite high.\n\nmetamorworks/iStock via Getty Images\nThe South Korean e-commerce market has already achieved significant market penetration. Coupang(NYSE:CPNG)achieved significant consumer satisfaction with users ranking their shopping app higher than the average for South Korean apps. Coupang has a built very strong delivery network that enables the company to reach 70% of the South Korean population in less than 10 minutes. Relative valuation analysis indicates that the stock is undervalued and suggests we can expect strong double-digit returns in upcoming years.\nThe E-commerce market has already achieved significant success in South Korea. Currently, South Korea is the 5th largest e-commerce market in the world surpassing $110 billion in total sales level throughout 2020.\nSource: emarketer.com\nSouth Korea has the second-highest e-commerce sales to GDP ratio at 6.8%, only beaten by China with a 15.6% ratio. At the same time, the country has the 3rdhighest e-commerce sales per capita ($2,135) after the UK and the USA.\nSource: Author Data taken:emarketer.com,World Bank GDP,World Bank Population\nSouth Korea has relatively high e-commerce penetration: about 72% of the population has used e-commerce services at least once. Though the percentage seems quite high, not all are using e-commerce frequently, and even active users are spending only a small proportion of their total budget on online shopping.\nSource: Visualistan.com\nThe situation is going to change as the younger generations are inclined towards the digital world and readily adopt new online services. 94.7% of the 20-29 age group has used e-commerce platforms, while only 60.02% of the 50-59 age group has ever used e-commerce services. The spending power of the younger generations grow in line with their age, providing long-term sustainable growth opportunities for e-commerce players.\nSource: Statista\nSouth Korea has a high internet penetration rate with99.2%of households having internet access via PC, mobile or other devices. Mobile online purchases are the biggest growth engine for the e-commerce sector: online purchases via PC grew by only10.3%in the 2017-2018 period and 5.67% in the 2018-2019 period. At the same time, purchases made via mobile phones increased by 31.7% in the 2017-2018 period and by 19.84% in the 2018-2019 period. Mobile purchases make up 61.5% of total e-commerce sales. South Korea has the highest smartphone penetration in the world: 96% of the total population owns a smartphone compared to 89% in the USA and 71% in China.\nCoupang's mobile applications are among the top 20 of South Korean applications. Coupang’s Shopping app is the 13th most popular mobile app in South Korea according to the SimilarWebranking system in Apple's App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL), while Coupang Eats is 12th. At the same time, in the Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG), the Coupang Shopping application is 15th. In South Korea,71.17% of mobile users use the Android operating system, while only 28.46% are iOS users. Thus, Google Play Store stats are more important for our analysis.\nSource: Statcounter.com\nThe Coupang shopping application has more than 583,000 reviews in the Google Play Store and the average rating is 4.2. More than 65% of users rated the app 5 stars. The rating of the app is significantly better than the average Korean app score of 3.39.\nSource: Appgrooves\nE-commerce penetration in South Korea jumped significantly in 2020. In 2019, the penetration rate was 20.8%, while in 2020 the number increased to 25.9%. In this respect, South Korea is ahead of the USA (14%), the UK (23.3%) and China (24.9%). These statistics indicate that the South Korean market is one step ahead of other countries' markets. It is estimated that the South Korean e-commerce market will continue its fast-paced growth and reach $150 billion revenues in 2024. Analysts estimate an8% GMV CAGRduring the 2021-2024 period.\nCoupang is growing faster than the total industry as the company was able to increase its market share significantly in 2020. In 2019, the company had a market share of18.1%, while in 2020 Coupang's share had increased to 24%. Meanwhile, its main competitors could not grow their market share percentages in 2020. The main rivals of the company are eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)owned Gmarket, WeMakePrice and Naver Shopping. According to Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities, the company can increase its market share by exceeding a30% levelin upcoming years.\nCoupang was founded in 2010, and since then has achieved a significant market share in South Korea. One of the biggest contributors to this fast growth was their fast delivery. Coupang's logistics business, Rocket Delivery, allows consumers to receive their orders in less than 24 hours from ordering. The company has built a strong end-to-end logistics network using its 200 warehouses and more than 100 logistics centers. According to the management,70% of the South Korean populationis living within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistics center. It creates a significant moat for the business as competitors would need to invest large amounts of cash to build similar logistics networks. Recently, Coupang has launched the Dawn Delivery service which delivers goods by 7 a.m., if the order is placed by midnight the day before. More than 3.3 million items are being ordered on the Coupang platform every day and 99.3% of all items are being delivered within 24 hours. It is worth mentioning that the fast delivery service has been achievable because South Korea is so densely populated. South Korea is the 23rd most densely populated country in the world with a density ratio of512 people per 1 km square. 81.4% of the population are living in cities, making the country the39thmost urbanized in the world.\nCoupang's different segments are interconnected, as the growth of one segment is bringing tailwinds for other segments. Coupang is investing heavily to grow its 1P business (their inventory offering) by expanding its product base and improving the quality of the service. These investments increase the level of consumer satisfaction and bring a significant number of consumers to the 3P business (3rd party marketplace). New consumers in the 3P segment increase the interest in new merchants on the platform; this is further expanding product variety, creating economic moat and attracting new consumers. Sellers are urged to move from traditional retail stores because this market is declining by7% YoYin South Korea, while on Coupang's platform 3rd party merchants grow their sales by an average of 87% YoY. So, due to large investments in the 1P business and the consumer base expansion in the 3P business, Coupang’s total business has grown at twice the rate of the total South Korean market over the past 2 years.\nThe company is actively encouraging more consumers to its platform: in Q2, the company recorded 26% active user growth, reaching17 million monthlyactive consumers. There seems to be a consumer base growth opportunity in South Korea, as it is estimated that there are about 37 million internet shoppers in the country. The company could not achieve significant growth by only expanding its consumer base, but it can record significant growth by increasing their revenue per consumer, which is still quite low. In the last quarter, the company managed to record a 36% revenue per consumer growth, due to the expansion of product and service bases.\nCoupang is also offering its employees incentives to invest their efforts into the growth of the business. Coupang is the first Korean company to make its frontline workers shareholders of the company: 39,000 employees got restricted stock awards at the IPO. Coupang employees are generally content with the firm as the company has a 4 out of 5-star rating. The CEO has a90% approvalrate, while 80% of employees would recommend joining the Coupang team to their friends. Employee’s rank \"career opportunities\" in the company a quite high, which is a very important factor to attract highly talented workers to the business.\nSource: Glassdoor.com\nCoupang recorded a $122 million EBITDA loss in Q2 2021. These losses come from investments in new segments of the company: direct investments in the Eats and Fresh segments amounted to $120 million in Q2. These investments seem quite justified as the new fields helped Coupang to record significant top-line growth. Particularly, the Fresh grocery revenues doubled in Q2 YoY, exceeding the $2 billion level, less than 3 years after its launch. Though the Eats and Fresh segments are not yet profitable, they are recording significant contribution margin improvements in recent quarters, and the management believes that they will replicate the profitability of the mature segments of the company. In the Fresh segment, the management was able to record a 1,000-basis point contribution margin improvement YoY, while in the Eats segment the loss per order decreased by 50% in last year. As the management sees low online penetration in these segments and high ROI opportunities, they are going to continue to invest aggressively to create long term value for investors.\nThe growing scale of the business helps Coupang to improve profitability margins. The gross margin was only5.08%in 2018, while in the last quarter the company recorded a gross margin of 16.8%. However, the margin includes an inventory write-off of $158 million which was caused by a fulfilment center fire. Excluding the consequences of the fire, the company reported an $816 million quarterly gross profit, a 86% YoY improvement, and the adjusted gross margin is 18.2%.\nThe company has significant opportunities to expand its business. One of the most interesting areas is fintech, as the company could provide consumers with its own payment platform to process their transactions, get loans for their purchases etc. LatAm, owner of the e-commerce business Mercadolibre(NASDAQ:MELI), realizes this opportunity quite successfully as athird of its revenuescome from the fintech segment. Coupang's management is rather cautious about this field as they prefer to invest in the e-commerce segment. Coupang's fintech offerings are at their early stages yet as the company tests opportunities in the sector. The management has a similar approach to international expansion. Currently, Coupang is working on business expansion in Japan and Taiwan, however, these initiatives are at their early stages and the management is not intending to invest large amounts of cash on these projects.\nRisks\nCross border e-commerce growth is one of the biggest threats for the business as prices in South Korea are generally higher than foreign prices. In 2019, there were almost$3.1 billiononline purchases from foreign retail sites, growing 15% YoY. However, surveys indicate that the South Korean population is not overly concerned about high prices as only20% of online shopperspay attention to low-priced products.\nEvery e-commerce player faces significant competition as the industry promises significant growth opportunities and companies invest heavily to grab their market share. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)shows significant interest in the South Korean market as last year they announced their partnership with SK Telecom(NYSE:SKM). The partnership gives Amazon the right to obtain30% of 11Street, an e-commerce platform operating in South Korea, whose parent company is SK Telecom. In 2020, 11Street recorded revenues of $530 billion, which was about 14 times lower than Coupang's results. However, Amazon's partnership with the business will allow 11Street to introduce Amazon's products and services to its consumers which will create significant competitive advantages for the company.\nValuation\nTo calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have used a relative valuation analysis. We have collected data on the world's 15 biggest e-commerce stocks to calculate the value of CPNG. The average P/S FWD ratio of the 15 biggest e-commerce companies is 7.99, while the median ratio is 4.25. Coupang's P/S FWD is 2.57, which indicates that the stock is trading at a lower multiple compared to its peers. Calculating the PSG ratio of competitors, we see that the average PSG is 20.96, while the median PSG is 17.4. Calculating Coupang's P/S FWD based on these multiples, and analysts' estimated revenue growth rate of50.2%, we get an average P/S FWD of 10.52 and a median of 8.73. These ratios are significantly higher than Coupang's 2.57 multiple. However, the low multiple reflects the low profitability of the business. The company reported a TTM gross margin of 16.63%, significantly lower than peers' average margin of 43.45%, thus we need to incorporate the low profitability of the business in our calculations also.\nSource: Author, Data:SeekingAlpha.com,Finviz.com,GuruFocus.com\nSo, we have built a regression analysis where, for dependent variables, we have used natural logs of peers' estimated growth rates and TTM gross margins. As a result, we have an R Square of 55% and an F Stat of 7.34, which indicates that there is high statistical significance. Using coefficients of the regression equation, we get a P/S FWD ratio of 3.85, which is higher than Coupang's P/S FWD ratio of 2.57, and indicates that the stock is undervalued by 49%. So, we think that the intrinsic value of Coupang is $50; 12% higher than analysts' average price target of$44.7and 16.7% lower than analysts' highest price target of $60.\nSource: Author\nIt is expected that the South Korean retail market will exceed$530 billionby 2024. Considering a 35% e-commerce penetration rate and Coupang securing a 20% market share we get a $37.1 billion revenue prediction for Coupang. Taking our P/S ratio of 3.85, and multiplying it by our assumed sales figures, we get a $142.8 billion implied market cap, which is 140% higher than the current market cap and indicates a 34% annual return opportunity.\nConclusion\nThe South Korean e-commerce market is growing quite rapidly. Coupang is the largest e-commerce player in South Korea partly because it managed to build a strong logistics network and delivers items quickly. Our valuation analyses indicate that the stock is undervalued by 50% compared to its peers, thus we see a strong price appreciation opportunity. We anticipate a 34% annual return until 2024, thus we assign a Buy rating to the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1637,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/835619573"}
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