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2021-08-20

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The Stock Market Is Dropping Again. What’s Behind Its Worst Slump Since July.<blockquote>股市又在下跌了。自7月以来最严重的暴跌背后是什么？</blockquote>

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Thank you","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836946137","repostId":1169769842,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169769842","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629449461,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169769842?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Is Dropping Again. What’s Behind Its Worst Slump Since July.<blockquote>股市又在下跌了。自7月以来最严重的暴跌背后是什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169769842","media":"Barron's","summary":"The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst three-day drop since July. Is the sky starting to fall?\nIt sure","content":"The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> is on pace for its worst three-day drop since July. Is the sky starting to fall?<blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>即将出现自7月份以来最严重的三天跌幅。天要塌下来了吗？</blockquote> It sure does look ugly out there. S&amp;P 500 futures have declined 0.6% Thursday morning, indicating an opening loss of around 28 points, or 0.6%, for the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">DJIA</a>), meanwhile, could be headed for a 237 point, or 0.7%, decline, per futures markets.<blockquote>外面看起来确实很丑。标普500期货周四上午下跌0.6%，表明该指数开盘下跌约28点，即0.6%。道琼斯工业平均指数（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">道琼斯</a>与此同时，根据期货市场的数据，该指数可能会下跌237点，即0.7%。</blockquote> If the losses hold, it would be the S&amp;P 500’s third consecutive drop, the index’s longest losing streak since the three-day losing streak that ended on July 19. At this pace, the index would shed around 2.4% over a three-day period, also the worst since that July tumble.<blockquote>如果跌势持续，这将是标普500连续第三次下跌，这是该指数自7月19日结束三日连跌以来最长的连跌。按照这个速度，该指数将在三天内下跌约2.4%，这也是自7月份暴跌以来最严重的一次。</blockquote> If you want reasons for the decline, well, there are plenty. Taper fears are at the top of the list, despite the fact that the Fed has been about as transparent about the fact that it will end its bond-buying program soon as it’s possible to be. (Can a big article in The Wall Street Journal with the headline “Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022” be any more obvious?)<blockquote>如果你想知道下降的原因，那么，有很多。尽管美联储一直尽可能透明地表示将尽快结束债券购买计划，但对缩减购债计划的担忧仍排在首位。（《华尔街日报》上一篇标题为“美联储官员权衡在2022年年中之前结束资产购买”的大文章还能更明显吗？）</blockquote> But history shows that markets react to changes in monetary policy—even when they know the change is coming, says Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar. “[We] have to be reminded of how stocks responded to EVERY SINGLE change in Fed policy towards tightening since 2010,” he writes. “Outside of the August 2015 selloff related to the Chinese yuan modest devaluation and the Covid induced crash, every notable correction in stocks surrounded a change Fed policy toward tightening.”<blockquote>但布莱克利咨询集团的彼得·布克瓦尔表示，历史表明，市场会对货币政策的变化做出反应——即使他们知道变化即将到来。“[我们]必须提醒股市对2010年以来美联储紧缩政策的每一次变化的反应，”他写道。“除了2015年8月与人民币小幅贬值和新冠疫情引发的崩盘相关的抛售之外，股市的每一次显着调整都围绕着美联储紧缩政策的变化。”</blockquote> Covid concerns continue to rise, whether its cases forcing shutdowns in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand or reports that the vaccines aren’t as effective against the Delta variant as originally thought. Again, none of this is terribly new, but then again, the market chooses when it wants to react, not folks with a keyboard.<blockquote>对新冠病毒的担忧持续上升，无论其病例是否迫使工厂关闭<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>新西兰或报告称，疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株的效果并不像最初想象的那样。再说一次，这些都不是什么新鲜事，但话说回来，市场会选择何时做出反应，而不是拿着键盘的人。</blockquote> If you listen to the thrum of the Street, though, you get the sense that the market has been due for a correction. There’s some truth to that. The S&amp;P 500 has been more than 8% above its 200-day moving average for 198 days, the longest in 40 years and among the five longest stretches in history. These streaks are usually followed by a couple of months of choppy trading, with a median gain of just 0.3% over the following two months. “By the time it reached the current length, other super-strong trends saw buyers take a break,” writes Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert.<blockquote>不过，如果你听听街上的喧闹声，你会觉得市场已经到了调整的时候了。这有一定的道理。标普500已经有198天比200日移动平均线高出8%以上，这是40年来最长的一次，也是历史上最长的五次之一。这些连涨之后通常会出现几个月的波动交易，接下来两个月的中值涨幅仅为0.3%。Sundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert写道：“当它达到目前的长度时，其他超级强劲的趋势让买家休息一下。”</blockquote> Of course, it might just be August, says DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas. He notes that the S&amp;P 500 typically has one 1% up or down move every week since 1957, but has had just three during the first seven weeks of the third quarter. August, because of its low volume and history of higher volatility would be a good time to catch up.<blockquote>DataTrek的尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示，当然，可能只是八月。他指出，自1957年以来，标普500通常每周都会上涨或下跌1%，但第三季度前七周仅上涨或下跌3次。八月，由于其交易量较低且波动性较高的历史，将是追赶的好时机。</blockquote> That’s especially true with stocks starting to move together again. “[As] much as we like U.S. equities, we have to respect both the tape (suddenly higher correlations) and seasonality (late August volatility),” Colas writes. “Both tell us to be cautious over the next 2-3 weeks.”<blockquote>当股市再次开始同步波动时尤其如此。科拉斯写道：“尽管我们非常喜欢美国股市，但我们必须尊重磁带（相关性突然上升）和季节性（八月下旬的波动性）。”“两者都告诉我们在未来2-3周内要保持谨慎。”</blockquote> So buckle up. Whatever the reason, it’s chop time for U.S. stock markets.<blockquote>所以系好安全带。不管是什么原因，现在是美国股市下跌的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Is Dropping Again. 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What’s Behind Its Worst Slump Since July.<blockquote>股市又在下跌了。自7月以来最严重的暴跌背后是什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-20 16:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> is on pace for its worst three-day drop since July. Is the sky starting to fall?<blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>即将出现自7月份以来最严重的三天跌幅。天要塌下来了吗？</blockquote> It sure does look ugly out there. S&amp;P 500 futures have declined 0.6% Thursday morning, indicating an opening loss of around 28 points, or 0.6%, for the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">DJIA</a>), meanwhile, could be headed for a 237 point, or 0.7%, decline, per futures markets.<blockquote>外面看起来确实很丑。标普500期货周四上午下跌0.6%，表明该指数开盘下跌约28点，即0.6%。道琼斯工业平均指数（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">道琼斯</a>与此同时，根据期货市场的数据，该指数可能会下跌237点，即0.7%。</blockquote> If the losses hold, it would be the S&amp;P 500’s third consecutive drop, the index’s longest losing streak since the three-day losing streak that ended on July 19. At this pace, the index would shed around 2.4% over a three-day period, also the worst since that July tumble.<blockquote>如果跌势持续，这将是标普500连续第三次下跌，这是该指数自7月19日结束三日连跌以来最长的连跌。按照这个速度，该指数将在三天内下跌约2.4%，这也是自7月份暴跌以来最严重的一次。</blockquote> If you want reasons for the decline, well, there are plenty. Taper fears are at the top of the list, despite the fact that the Fed has been about as transparent about the fact that it will end its bond-buying program soon as it’s possible to be. (Can a big article in The Wall Street Journal with the headline “Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022” be any more obvious?)<blockquote>如果你想知道下降的原因，那么，有很多。尽管美联储一直尽可能透明地表示将尽快结束债券购买计划，但对缩减购债计划的担忧仍排在首位。（《华尔街日报》上一篇标题为“美联储官员权衡在2022年年中之前结束资产购买”的大文章还能更明显吗？）</blockquote> But history shows that markets react to changes in monetary policy—even when they know the change is coming, says Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar. “[We] have to be reminded of how stocks responded to EVERY SINGLE change in Fed policy towards tightening since 2010,” he writes. “Outside of the August 2015 selloff related to the Chinese yuan modest devaluation and the Covid induced crash, every notable correction in stocks surrounded a change Fed policy toward tightening.”<blockquote>但布莱克利咨询集团的彼得·布克瓦尔表示，历史表明，市场会对货币政策的变化做出反应——即使他们知道变化即将到来。“[我们]必须提醒股市对2010年以来美联储紧缩政策的每一次变化的反应，”他写道。“除了2015年8月与人民币小幅贬值和新冠疫情引发的崩盘相关的抛售之外，股市的每一次显着调整都围绕着美联储紧缩政策的变化。”</blockquote> Covid concerns continue to rise, whether its cases forcing shutdowns in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand or reports that the vaccines aren’t as effective against the Delta variant as originally thought. Again, none of this is terribly new, but then again, the market chooses when it wants to react, not folks with a keyboard.<blockquote>对新冠病毒的担忧持续上升，无论其病例是否迫使工厂关闭<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>新西兰或报告称，疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株的效果并不像最初想象的那样。再说一次，这些都不是什么新鲜事，但话说回来，市场会选择何时做出反应，而不是拿着键盘的人。</blockquote> If you listen to the thrum of the Street, though, you get the sense that the market has been due for a correction. There’s some truth to that. The S&amp;P 500 has been more than 8% above its 200-day moving average for 198 days, the longest in 40 years and among the five longest stretches in history. These streaks are usually followed by a couple of months of choppy trading, with a median gain of just 0.3% over the following two months. “By the time it reached the current length, other super-strong trends saw buyers take a break,” writes Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert.<blockquote>不过，如果你听听街上的喧闹声，你会觉得市场已经到了调整的时候了。这有一定的道理。标普500已经有198天比200日移动平均线高出8%以上，这是40年来最长的一次，也是历史上最长的五次之一。这些连涨之后通常会出现几个月的波动交易，接下来两个月的中值涨幅仅为0.3%。Sundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert写道：“当它达到目前的长度时，其他超级强劲的趋势让买家休息一下。”</blockquote> Of course, it might just be August, says DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas. He notes that the S&amp;P 500 typically has one 1% up or down move every week since 1957, but has had just three during the first seven weeks of the third quarter. August, because of its low volume and history of higher volatility would be a good time to catch up.<blockquote>DataTrek的尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示，当然，可能只是八月。他指出，自1957年以来，标普500通常每周都会上涨或下跌1%，但第三季度前七周仅上涨或下跌3次。八月，由于其交易量较低且波动性较高的历史，将是追赶的好时机。</blockquote> That’s especially true with stocks starting to move together again. “[As] much as we like U.S. equities, we have to respect both the tape (suddenly higher correlations) and seasonality (late August volatility),” Colas writes. “Both tell us to be cautious over the next 2-3 weeks.”<blockquote>当股市再次开始同步波动时尤其如此。科拉斯写道：“尽管我们非常喜欢美国股市，但我们必须尊重磁带（相关性突然上升）和季节性（八月下旬的波动性）。”“两者都告诉我们在未来2-3周内要保持谨慎。”</blockquote> So buckle up. Whatever the reason, it’s chop time for U.S. stock markets.<blockquote>所以系好安全带。不管是什么原因，现在是美国股市下跌的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-stock-market-dropping-again-today-51629372284?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1&tesla=y\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-stock-market-dropping-again-today-51629372284?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169769842","content_text":"The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst three-day drop since July. Is the sky starting to fall?\nIt sure does look ugly out there. S&P 500 futures have declined 0.6% Thursday morning, indicating an opening loss of around 28 points, or 0.6%, for the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), meanwhile, could be headed for a 237 point, or 0.7%, decline, per futures markets.\nIf the losses hold, it would be the S&P 500’s third consecutive drop, the index’s longest losing streak since the three-day losing streak that ended on July 19. At this pace, the index would shed around 2.4% over a three-day period, also the worst since that July tumble.\nIf you want reasons for the decline, well, there are plenty. Taper fears are at the top of the list, despite the fact that the Fed has been about as transparent about the fact that it will end its bond-buying program soon as it’s possible to be. (Can a big article in The Wall Street Journal with the headline “Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022” be any more obvious?)\nBut history shows that markets react to changes in monetary policy—even when they know the change is coming, says Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar. “[We] have to be reminded of how stocks responded to EVERY SINGLE change in Fed policy towards tightening since 2010,” he writes. “Outside of the August 2015 selloff related to the Chinese yuan modest devaluation and the Covid induced crash, every notable correction in stocks surrounded a change Fed policy toward tightening.”\nCovid concerns continue to rise, whether its cases forcing shutdowns in New Zealand or reports that the vaccines aren’t as effective against the Delta variant as originally thought. Again, none of this is terribly new, but then again, the market chooses when it wants to react, not folks with a keyboard.\nIf you listen to the thrum of the Street, though, you get the sense that the market has been due for a correction. There’s some truth to that. The S&P 500 has been more than 8% above its 200-day moving average for 198 days, the longest in 40 years and among the five longest stretches in history. These streaks are usually followed by a couple of months of choppy trading, with a median gain of just 0.3% over the following two months. “By the time it reached the current length, other super-strong trends saw buyers take a break,” writes Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert.\nOf course, it might just be August, says DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas. He notes that the S&P 500 typically has one 1% up or down move every week since 1957, but has had just three during the first seven weeks of the third quarter. August, because of its low volume and history of higher volatility would be a good time to catch up.\nThat’s especially true with stocks starting to move together again. “[As] much as we like U.S. equities, we have to respect both the tape (suddenly higher correlations) and seasonality (late August volatility),” Colas writes. “Both tell us to be cautious over the next 2-3 weeks.”\nSo buckle up. Whatever the reason, it’s chop time for U.S. stock markets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/836946137"}