Wow.. looks like Mr. Jerome ca_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-25

Wow.. looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.

Central Banks Cannot Really Taper In This Slowdown<blockquote>央行无法在经济放缓期间真正缩减规模</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":837297722,"tweetId":"837297722","gmtCreate":1629891017066,"gmtModify":1633681696469,"author":{"id":3577005976005407,"idStr":"3577005976005407","authorId":3577005976005407,"authorIdStr":"3577005976005407","name":"cgtc78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520fe8221db3bf1f5743d4c42f1bdac3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Wow..&nbsp; looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Wow..&nbsp; looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Wow.. looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837297722","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126078997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629884958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126078997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 17:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Central Banks Cannot Really Taper In This Slowdown<blockquote>央行无法在经济放缓期间真正缩减规模</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126078997","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest","content":"Recent macroeconomic data from the&nbsp;United States&nbsp;should worry us.&nbsp;Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016.<blockquote>美国最近的宏观经济数据应该让我们感到担忧。在重新开放和近代史上最大规模的财政和货币刺激措施的背景下，以及政策决定可能带来的所有有利因素，消费者信心已跌至2016年以来的最低水平。</blockquote> Retail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment of industrial production data is far more than disappointing considering the level of stimulus and that GDP has returned to a&nbsp;pre-pandemic level.<blockquote>7月份零售额再次大幅下降，考虑到刺激水平和GDP已恢复到大流行前的水平，工业生产就业数据远不止令人失望。</blockquote> The use of industrial capacity, at 76%, is 4% below the average for the 1972-2020 period, and the labor participation rate, at 61.6%, has been stagnant for ten months and at 1980 levels.<blockquote>工业产能利用率为76%，比1972-2020年期间的平均水平低4%，劳动参与率为61.6%，已经停滞了10个月，处于1980年的水平。</blockquote> The total savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has almost vanished from 33.8% to 9.4%.<blockquote>总储蓄率占可支配收入的百分比几乎从33.8%消失到9.4%。</blockquote> Let’s put it in the context of a re-opening that has been in place for more than a year, a fiscal stimulus equivalent to three trillion dollars, and a monetary stimulus of 1.7 trillion dollars in 2021.&nbsp;The United States would go into a severe recession if it were not “doping ” the economy.<blockquote>让我们把它放在已经实施一年多的重新开放、相当于3万亿美元的财政刺激以及2021年1.7万亿美元的货币刺激的背景下。如果不给经济“兴奋剂”，美国将陷入严重衰退。</blockquote> We cannot ignore the slowdown in China, where even the official data reflect a slowdown in the expansion process. If we take the typical difference between official and real data, we will see that, for example, gross capital formation has slowed down rapidly in 2021.<blockquote>我们不能忽视中国的放缓，甚至官方数据也反映了扩张进程的放缓。如果我们以官方数据和真实数据之间的典型差异为例，我们会看到，例如，资本形成总额在2021年迅速放缓。</blockquote> This is important because the entire recovery of the eurozone relies on fiscal and monetary impulse in addition to the European Recovery Fund.<blockquote>这一点很重要，因为除了欧洲复苏基金之外，欧元区的整个复苏还依赖于财政和货币刺激。</blockquote> The recovery of the euro area keeps some positive momentum simply because it is more delayed.&nbsp;The GDP of the euro area is still 4% below pre-pandemic levels (7% in the case of Spain) and employment is well below the levels of comparable economies, considering that we must add the workers in furloughed jobs that are still above six million while unemployment, at 7.1% estimated for August, is recovering slowly.<blockquote>欧元区的复苏保持了一些积极的势头，仅仅是因为它被推迟了更多。欧元区的GDP仍比疫情前的水平低4%（西班牙为7%），就业率远低于可比经济体的水平，考虑到我们必须加上仍超过600万的休假工人，而8月份的失业率估计为7.1%，正在缓慢复苏。</blockquote> These data reinforce my view that central banks will maintain their ultra-expansionary policy with very modest changes. Tapering will likely be more cosmetic than real, and rates will remain&nbsp;low while, in the case of the euro area, negative. The fact that the Federal Reserve balance sheet has expanded further while officials talked about tapering reinforces this view.<blockquote>这些数据强化了我的观点，即各国央行将维持超扩张性政策，并做出非常温和的改变。缩减规模可能更多的是表面上的，而不是真正的，利率将保持在低位，而就欧元区而言，利率将为负。在官员们谈论缩减规模的同时，美联储资产负债表进一步扩大，这一事实强化了这一观点。</blockquote> The threat of an escalation of international tension after the Taliban coup in Afghanistan is added to the impact of the delta variant, which will be more evident in winter, as it happened in 2020.<blockquote>阿富汗塔利班政变后国际紧张局势升级的威胁加剧了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，这种影响在冬季将更加明显，就像2020年发生的那样。</blockquote> The important thing is to understand that, from the investor point of view, we have probably passed the peak of recovery and the most cyclical sectors are already discounting the slowing momentum.<blockquote>重要的是要明白，从投资者的角度来看，我们可能已经度过了复苏的顶峰，最具周期性的行业已经在低估放缓的势头。</blockquote> The unsustainable fiscal situation of developed countries makes a serious normalization of policy impossible. The ECB is the only buyer of Italian and Spanish debt, according to the IIF (Institute of International Finance), and this disguises an imminent risk but does not eliminate it.<blockquote>发达国家不可持续的财政状况使得严重的政策正常化变得不可能。根据IIF（国际金融研究所）的数据，欧洲央行是意大利和西班牙债务的唯一买家，这掩盖了迫在眉睫的风险，但并没有消除它。</blockquote> Inflation, the great threat to the recovery, remains high and although some components have moderated, the most important factors for the average consumer, non-replicable goods, remain well above the levels of 2015.<blockquote>对复苏构成巨大威胁的通胀仍然很高，尽管一些组成部分已经放缓，但对普通消费者来说，最重要的因素——不可复制的商品——仍远高于2015年的水平。</blockquote> Central banks are faced with the devil’s dilemma created by their own policy.<blockquote>各国央行面临着自身政策造成的魔鬼困境。</blockquote> Either let inflation run and create a stagflation problem or scare the markets by reducing purchases.<blockquote>要么让通胀运行并造成滞胀问题，要么通过减少购买来吓唬市场。</blockquote> They will choose the first, without a doubt.<blockquote>毫无疑问，他们会选择第一个。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral Banks Cannot Really Taper In This Slowdown<blockquote>央行无法在经济放缓期间真正缩减规模</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-25 17:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecent macroeconomic data from the&nbsp;United States&nbsp;should worry us.&nbsp;Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016.<blockquote>美国最近的宏观经济数据应该让我们感到担忧。在重新开放和近代史上最大规模的财政和货币刺激措施的背景下，以及政策决定可能带来的所有有利因素，消费者信心已跌至2016年以来的最低水平。</blockquote> Retail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment of industrial production data is far more than disappointing considering the level of stimulus and that GDP has returned to a&nbsp;pre-pandemic level.<blockquote>7月份零售额再次大幅下降，考虑到刺激水平和GDP已恢复到大流行前的水平，工业生产就业数据远不止令人失望。</blockquote> The use of industrial capacity, at 76%, is 4% below the average for the 1972-2020 period, and the labor participation rate, at 61.6%, has been stagnant for ten months and at 1980 levels.<blockquote>工业产能利用率为76%，比1972-2020年期间的平均水平低4%，劳动参与率为61.6%，已经停滞了10个月，处于1980年的水平。</blockquote> The total savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has almost vanished from 33.8% to 9.4%.<blockquote>总储蓄率占可支配收入的百分比几乎从33.8%消失到9.4%。</blockquote> Let’s put it in the context of a re-opening that has been in place for more than a year, a fiscal stimulus equivalent to three trillion dollars, and a monetary stimulus of 1.7 trillion dollars in 2021.&nbsp;The United States would go into a severe recession if it were not “doping ” the economy.<blockquote>让我们把它放在已经实施一年多的重新开放、相当于3万亿美元的财政刺激以及2021年1.7万亿美元的货币刺激的背景下。如果不给经济“兴奋剂”，美国将陷入严重衰退。</blockquote> We cannot ignore the slowdown in China, where even the official data reflect a slowdown in the expansion process. If we take the typical difference between official and real data, we will see that, for example, gross capital formation has slowed down rapidly in 2021.<blockquote>我们不能忽视中国的放缓，甚至官方数据也反映了扩张进程的放缓。如果我们以官方数据和真实数据之间的典型差异为例，我们会看到，例如，资本形成总额在2021年迅速放缓。</blockquote> This is important because the entire recovery of the eurozone relies on fiscal and monetary impulse in addition to the European Recovery Fund.<blockquote>这一点很重要，因为除了欧洲复苏基金之外，欧元区的整个复苏还依赖于财政和货币刺激。</blockquote> The recovery of the euro area keeps some positive momentum simply because it is more delayed.&nbsp;The GDP of the euro area is still 4% below pre-pandemic levels (7% in the case of Spain) and employment is well below the levels of comparable economies, considering that we must add the workers in furloughed jobs that are still above six million while unemployment, at 7.1% estimated for August, is recovering slowly.<blockquote>欧元区的复苏保持了一些积极的势头，仅仅是因为它被推迟了更多。欧元区的GDP仍比疫情前的水平低4%（西班牙为7%），就业率远低于可比经济体的水平，考虑到我们必须加上仍超过600万的休假工人，而8月份的失业率估计为7.1%，正在缓慢复苏。</blockquote> These data reinforce my view that central banks will maintain their ultra-expansionary policy with very modest changes. Tapering will likely be more cosmetic than real, and rates will remain&nbsp;low while, in the case of the euro area, negative. The fact that the Federal Reserve balance sheet has expanded further while officials talked about tapering reinforces this view.<blockquote>这些数据强化了我的观点，即各国央行将维持超扩张性政策，并做出非常温和的改变。缩减规模可能更多的是表面上的，而不是真正的，利率将保持在低位，而就欧元区而言，利率将为负。在官员们谈论缩减规模的同时，美联储资产负债表进一步扩大，这一事实强化了这一观点。</blockquote> The threat of an escalation of international tension after the Taliban coup in Afghanistan is added to the impact of the delta variant, which will be more evident in winter, as it happened in 2020.<blockquote>阿富汗塔利班政变后国际紧张局势升级的威胁加剧了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，这种影响在冬季将更加明显，就像2020年发生的那样。</blockquote> The important thing is to understand that, from the investor point of view, we have probably passed the peak of recovery and the most cyclical sectors are already discounting the slowing momentum.<blockquote>重要的是要明白，从投资者的角度来看，我们可能已经度过了复苏的顶峰，最具周期性的行业已经在低估放缓的势头。</blockquote> The unsustainable fiscal situation of developed countries makes a serious normalization of policy impossible. The ECB is the only buyer of Italian and Spanish debt, according to the IIF (Institute of International Finance), and this disguises an imminent risk but does not eliminate it.<blockquote>发达国家不可持续的财政状况使得严重的政策正常化变得不可能。根据IIF（国际金融研究所）的数据，欧洲央行是意大利和西班牙债务的唯一买家，这掩盖了迫在眉睫的风险，但并没有消除它。</blockquote> Inflation, the great threat to the recovery, remains high and although some components have moderated, the most important factors for the average consumer, non-replicable goods, remain well above the levels of 2015.<blockquote>对复苏构成巨大威胁的通胀仍然很高，尽管一些组成部分已经放缓，但对普通消费者来说，最重要的因素——不可复制的商品——仍远高于2015年的水平。</blockquote> Central banks are faced with the devil’s dilemma created by their own policy.<blockquote>各国央行面临着自身政策造成的魔鬼困境。</blockquote> Either let inflation run and create a stagflation problem or scare the markets by reducing purchases.<blockquote>要么让通胀运行并造成滞胀问题，要么通过减少购买来吓唬市场。</blockquote> They will choose the first, without a doubt.<blockquote>毫无疑问，他们会选择第一个。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-cannot-really-taper-slowdown\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-cannot-really-taper-slowdown","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126078997","content_text":"Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016.\nRetail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment of industrial production data is far more than disappointing considering the level of stimulus and that GDP has returned to a pre-pandemic level.\nThe use of industrial capacity, at 76%, is 4% below the average for the 1972-2020 period, and the labor participation rate, at 61.6%, has been stagnant for ten months and at 1980 levels.\nThe total savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has almost vanished from 33.8% to 9.4%.\nLet’s put it in the context of a re-opening that has been in place for more than a year, a fiscal stimulus equivalent to three trillion dollars, and a monetary stimulus of 1.7 trillion dollars in 2021. The United States would go into a severe recession if it were not “doping ” the economy.\nWe cannot ignore the slowdown in China, where even the official data reflect a slowdown in the expansion process. If we take the typical difference between official and real data, we will see that, for example, gross capital formation has slowed down rapidly in 2021.\nThis is important because the entire recovery of the eurozone relies on fiscal and monetary impulse in addition to the European Recovery Fund.\nThe recovery of the euro area keeps some positive momentum simply because it is more delayed. The GDP of the euro area is still 4% below pre-pandemic levels (7% in the case of Spain) and employment is well below the levels of comparable economies, considering that we must add the workers in furloughed jobs that are still above six million while unemployment, at 7.1% estimated for August, is recovering slowly.\nThese data reinforce my view that central banks will maintain their ultra-expansionary policy with very modest changes. Tapering will likely be more cosmetic than real, and rates will remain low while, in the case of the euro area, negative. The fact that the Federal Reserve balance sheet has expanded further while officials talked about tapering reinforces this view.\nThe threat of an escalation of international tension after the Taliban coup in Afghanistan is added to the impact of the delta variant, which will be more evident in winter, as it happened in 2020.\nThe important thing is to understand that, from the investor point of view, we have probably passed the peak of recovery and the most cyclical sectors are already discounting the slowing momentum.\nThe unsustainable fiscal situation of developed countries makes a serious normalization of policy impossible. The ECB is the only buyer of Italian and Spanish debt, according to the IIF (Institute of International Finance), and this disguises an imminent risk but does not eliminate it.\nInflation, the great threat to the recovery, remains high and although some components have moderated, the most important factors for the average consumer, non-replicable goods, remain well above the levels of 2015.\nCentral banks are faced with the devil’s dilemma created by their own policy.\nEither let inflation run and create a stagflation problem or scare the markets by reducing purchases.\nThey will choose the first, without a doubt.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2337,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":53,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/837297722"}