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2021-08-25
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Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>
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In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>最近的第二季度收益报告显示，Palantir(PLTR)继续难以提高其底线业绩，因为该公司在过度的股票薪酬计划上花费过多，该计划吞噬了所有利润并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。此外，今年以来的大规模稀释以及公司内部人士持续的抛售压力也阻碍了Palantir股价的升值。此外，Palantir近几个月表现不佳，且其股价自3月份以来没有太大变动，这一事实证明了我们的观点，即该公司现阶段不是一项有吸引力的投资，因为有充分的理由相信，很快就会创造出很多股东价值。因此，我们仍然认为最好投资于市场上其他更具吸引力的机会，并避免Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这只股票没有什么吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>最近有关Palantir的文章中已经对该公司的业务及其相对于其他竞争对手的优势进行了很多讨论，因此我们不会在本文中讨论它。然而，虽然Palantir肯定具有一些主要优势，因为其软件解决方案很难复制，但我们也认为，在现阶段，其业务有多强大并不重要，因为某些因素可能会继续阻止该公司的股票很快就会升值。我们不要忽视这样一个事实：Palantir的股票已从历史高点下跌了45%以上，自从我们3月份开始在Seeking Alpha上报道该公司以来，它也没有太大变化，我们仍然相信不会有太大变化。很快就会创造股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候发布的最新Q2财报显示，尽管业务不断增长，Palantir仍无法改善其底线业绩。虽然其收入环比增长10.1%至3.7564亿美元，毛利润环比增长6.6%至2.847亿美元，但其运营亏损环比增长28.2%至-1.461亿美元，净亏损环比扩大12.2%至-1.386亿美元。业绩如此疲软的原因是过度的股票薪酬计划，这将阻止该公司报告利润，因为本财年前六个月已在SBC计划上花费了超过4亿美元。仅在第二季度，Palantir的股票薪酬支出就同比增加了82%，达到2.327亿美元，第三季度和第四季度的进一步支出将掩盖今年收入或自由现金流的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>过度SBC计划的另一个问题是它不断稀释Palantir的股东。该公司已发行股票18.9亿股，高于一个月前的18亿股和2020年底的15.2亿股。按照目前的稀释率，投资者预计到今年年底该公司将拥有超过20亿股股票。这不仅会降低当前持有者的股票价值，还会使股票因数量增加而更难升值。如果2019年和2020年Palantir的每股收入分别为每股1.29美元和每股1.12美元，那么在过去12个月中，每股收入已经下降至每股0.83美元，并且在接下来的几个季度中可能会进一步贬值。最重要的是，考虑到Palantir在第二季度末仍有417,674份未行使期权，平均行使价为每股6.90美元，进一步稀释的风险仍将很高，特别是因为一旦所有这些期权都被行使，它们将稀释所有投资者超过20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司的内部人士，尤其是首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普继续增加额外的抛售压力，这也阻止了股价上涨。仅在第二季度，该公司内部人士就出售了价值创纪录的1.97亿美元的Palantir股票，而在第三季度上半年，他们已经出售了价值9300万美元的公司股票，几乎与第一季度出售的金额相同。随着越来越多的股票被抛售到市场上，股票上涨变得越来越难。考虑到内部人士不太可能停止出售其股票，因为他们仍然拥有超过10%的流通股，并且每个季度都通过行使期权来增加其股票总数，普通股东不应期望Palantir的股票在可预见的未来会迅速升值。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，即使以目前的价格计算，它也根本不是一只便宜的股票；它的市值为470亿美元，交易价格是其销售额的30倍。因此，该公司需要更高的营收增长率才能达到目前的估值，而这不太可能很快发生。目前，华尔街预计Palantir在2021财年的收入仅为15亿美元，到2025年，该公司的年收入不太可能超过35亿美元。考虑到现阶段Palantir积压的合同价值仅为34亿美元，这些合同将在未来几年内延长，可以肯定地说，其股票在当前水平上被严重高估。我们不知道该公司在未来几年内将如何增长到目前的市值，而且由于其股价目前接近每股24.16美元的共识价格，因此可以有把握地假设Palantir在当前水平上的上涨空间有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p><p><blockquote>看涨投资者在我们关于Palantir的文章的评论部分经常重复说，亚马逊(AMZN)也在二十多年里没有盈利，因此Palantir也没有盈利的事实在现阶段并不是什么大不了的事情。然而，亚马逊将大部分可用资源重新投资到其业务中，以积极推动增长，这最终是合理的，因为该公司现在每个季度都在赚钱，并且是世界上最大的电子商务公司。Palantir的情况并非如此，内部人士不断发行新股，然后将其倾销到市场上，这不断稀释现有股东，扩大整体净亏损，对业务没有好处。最重要的是，Palantir现在正在投资加密货币、SPAC和金条，而不是自己的业务，这是亚马逊过去没有做的事情，今天也不会做的事情。这就是为什么将Palantir与亚马逊进行比较没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们认为Palantir的股票不太可能在短期内大幅升值，因为抛售压力增加、不断稀释和估值过高是其在当前价格下上涨空间仍然有限的主要原因。因此，没有立场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.</li> <li>The excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.</li> <li>We stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5c6d796592faec81d9a29502efa9c0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管营收业绩有所改善，Palantir的净亏损仍在继续扩大。</li><li>过度的股票薪酬计划继续吞噬所有利润，并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。</li><li>我们坚持认为Palantir无法在短期内创造大量股东价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>最近的第二季度收益报告显示，Palantir(PLTR)继续难以提高其底线业绩，因为该公司在过度的股票薪酬计划上花费过多，该计划吞噬了所有利润并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。此外，今年以来的大规模稀释以及公司内部人士持续的抛售压力也阻碍了Palantir股价的升值。此外，Palantir近几个月表现不佳，且其股价自3月份以来没有太大变动，这一事实证明了我们的观点，即该公司现阶段不是一项有吸引力的投资，因为有充分的理由相信，很快就会创造出很多股东价值。因此，我们仍然认为最好投资于市场上其他更具吸引力的机会，并避免Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这只股票没有什么吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>最近有关Palantir的文章中已经对该公司的业务及其相对于其他竞争对手的优势进行了很多讨论，因此我们不会在本文中讨论它。然而，虽然Palantir肯定具有一些主要优势，因为其软件解决方案很难复制，但我们也认为，在现阶段，其业务有多强大并不重要，因为某些因素可能会继续阻止该公司的股票很快就会升值。我们不要忽视这样一个事实：Palantir的股票已从历史高点下跌了45%以上，自从我们3月份开始在Seeking Alpha上报道该公司以来，它也没有太大变化，我们仍然相信不会有太大变化。很快就会创造股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候发布的最新Q2财报显示，尽管业务不断增长，Palantir仍无法改善其底线业绩。虽然其收入环比增长10.1%至3.7564亿美元，毛利润环比增长6.6%至2.847亿美元，但其运营亏损环比增长28.2%至-1.461亿美元，净亏损环比扩大12.2%至-1.386亿美元。业绩如此疲软的原因是过度的股票薪酬计划，这将阻止该公司报告利润，因为本财年前六个月已在SBC计划上花费了超过4亿美元。仅在第二季度，Palantir的股票薪酬支出就同比增加了82%，达到2.327亿美元，第三季度和第四季度的进一步支出将掩盖今年收入或自由现金流的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>过度SBC计划的另一个问题是它不断稀释Palantir的股东。该公司已发行股票18.9亿股，高于一个月前的18亿股和2020年底的15.2亿股。按照目前的稀释率，投资者预计到今年年底该公司将拥有超过20亿股股票。这不仅会降低当前持有者的股票价值，还会使股票因数量增加而更难升值。如果2019年和2020年Palantir的每股收入分别为每股1.29美元和每股1.12美元，那么在过去12个月中，每股收入已经下降至每股0.83美元，并且在接下来的几个季度中可能会进一步贬值。最重要的是，考虑到Palantir在第二季度末仍有417,674份未行使期权，平均行使价为每股6.90美元，进一步稀释的风险仍将很高，特别是因为一旦所有这些期权都被行使，它们将稀释所有投资者超过20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司的内部人士，尤其是首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普继续增加额外的抛售压力，这也阻止了股价上涨。仅在第二季度，该公司内部人士就出售了价值创纪录的1.97亿美元的Palantir股票，而在第三季度上半年，他们已经出售了价值9300万美元的公司股票，几乎与第一季度出售的金额相同。随着越来越多的股票被抛售到市场上，股票上涨变得越来越难。考虑到内部人士不太可能停止出售其股票，因为他们仍然拥有超过10%的流通股，并且每个季度都通过行使期权来增加其股票总数，普通股东不应期望Palantir的股票在可预见的未来会迅速升值。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，即使以目前的价格计算，它也根本不是一只便宜的股票；它的市值为470亿美元，交易价格是其销售额的30倍。因此，该公司需要更高的营收增长率才能达到目前的估值，而这不太可能很快发生。目前，华尔街预计Palantir在2021财年的收入仅为15亿美元，到2025年，该公司的年收入不太可能超过35亿美元。考虑到现阶段Palantir积压的合同价值仅为34亿美元，这些合同将在未来几年内延长，可以肯定地说，其股票在当前水平上被严重高估。我们不知道该公司在未来几年内将如何增长到目前的市值，而且由于其股价目前接近每股24.16美元的共识价格，因此可以有把握地假设Palantir在当前水平上的上涨空间有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p><p><blockquote>看涨投资者在我们关于Palantir的文章的评论部分经常重复说，亚马逊(AMZN)也在二十多年里没有盈利，因此Palantir也没有盈利的事实在现阶段并不是什么大不了的事情。然而，亚马逊将大部分可用资源重新投资到其业务中，以积极推动增长，这最终是合理的，因为该公司现在每个季度都在赚钱，并且是世界上最大的电子商务公司。Palantir的情况并非如此，内部人士不断发行新股，然后将其倾销到市场上，这不断稀释现有股东，扩大整体净亏损，对业务没有好处。最重要的是，Palantir现在正在投资加密货币、SPAC和金条，而不是自己的业务，这是亚马逊过去没有做的事情，今天也不会做的事情。这就是为什么将Palantir与亚马逊进行比较没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们认为Palantir的股票不太可能在短期内大幅升值，因为抛售压力增加、不断稀释和估值过高是其在当前价格下上涨空间仍然有限的主要原因。因此，没有立场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195506103","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.\nWe stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.\nThere's Nothing Attractive About This Stock\nA lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nThe latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.\nSource: Palantir\nAnother problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.\nSource: Palantir\nOn top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.\nTakeaway\nBullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.\nConsidering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/837403802"}
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