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2021-08-26
What are yoir convections for this company
Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：对股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>
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In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>最近的第二季度收益报告显示，Palantir (PLTR) 继续努力提高其底线业绩，因为该公司在过度的股票薪酬计划上花费过多，这吞噬了所有利润，并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。此外，年初以来的大规模稀释以及来自公司内部人士的持续抛售压力也阻碍了Palantir的股价升值。此外，Palantir 近几个月来相对于标普500指数的表现不佳，而且其股票自 3 月份以来没有太大变动，这一事实证明了我们的观点，即该公司在现阶段不是一项有吸引力的投资，因为有充分的理由相信不会很快就会创造很多股东价值。因此，我们仍然认为最好投资于市场上其他更具吸引力的机会，并避开 Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这只股票没有什么吸引人的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>在最近关于Palantir的文章中，关于Palantir的业务及其相对于其他竞争对手的优势已经说了很多，所以我们不会在本文中讨论它。然而，虽然 Palantir 确实具有一些主要优势，因为其软件解决方案难以复制，但我们也认为，在现阶段，其业务有多强大并不重要，因为某些因素可能会继续阻止该公司的股票很快就会升值。我们不要忽视这样一个事实，即 Palantir 的股票已从历史高点贬值了 45% 以上，自从我们 3 月份开始在 Seeking Alpha 上报道该公司以来，它也没有太大变动，我们仍然相信不会很快就会创造很多股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候发布的最新第二季度收益报告显示，尽管业务不断增长，Palantir 仍无法提高其底线业绩。虽然其收入环比增长10.1%，达到3.7564亿美元，毛利润环比增长6.6%，达到2.847亿美元，但其运营亏损环比增长28.2%，达到-1.461亿美元，而净亏损环比扩大12.2%，达到-1.386亿美元。业绩如此疲软的原因是过度的股票薪酬计划，这将阻止公司报告利润，因为在本财年的前六个月，SBC计划已经花费了超过4亿美元。仅在第二季度，Palantir 的股票薪酬支出就同比增长了 82%，达到 2.327 亿美元，第三季度和第四季度的进一步支出将掩盖今年收入或自由现金流的任何增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>过度SBC计划的另一个问题是，它不断稀释Palantir的股东。该公司已拥有 18.9 亿股流通股，高于一个月前的 18 亿股，也高于 2020 年底的 15.2 亿股。按照目前的稀释率，投资者应该预计该公司到今年年底将持有超过20亿股股票。这不仅会降低当前持有者的股票价值，而且由于数量较多，股票更难升值。如果 2019 年和 2020 年 Palantir 的每股收入分别为每股 1.29 美元和每股 1.12 美元，那么在过去 12 个月中，每股收入已经下降到仅每股 0.83 美元，并且可能会在未来几个季度进一步贬值。最重要的是，考虑到 Palantir 在第二季度末仍有 417,674 份未行使期权，平均行使价为每股 6.90 美元，进一步稀释的风险仍然很高，特别是因为一旦所有这些期权都被行使，它们将稀释所有投资者超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普（Alex Karp）继续施加额外的抛售压力，这也阻止了股价上涨。仅在第二季度，该公司内部人士就出售了价值创纪录的 1.97 亿美元的 Palantir 股票，而在第三季度上半年，他们已经出售了价值 9300 万美元的公司股票，几乎与第一季度出售的数量相同。随着越来越多的股票被抛入市场，股票的上涨变得越来越困难。考虑到内部人士不太可能停止出售股票，因为他们仍然拥有超过 10% 的流通股，并且每个季度都通过行使期权来增加股票总数，普通股东不应指望 Palantir 的股票会快速升值在可预见的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 的另一个缺点是，即使以目前的价格，它也根本不是一只便宜的股票；它的市值为 470 亿美元，交易价格是其销售额的 30 倍。因此，公司需要更高的营收增长率才能达到目前的估值，而这种情况不太可能很快发生。目前，华尔街预计 Palantir 在 21 财年的收入仅为 15 亿美元，到 2025 年，该公司的年收入不太可能超过 35 亿美元。考虑到现阶段 Palantir 积压的合同价值仅为 34 亿美元，并且这些合同将在未来几年内延长，可以肯定地说，其股票在当前水平上被严重高估。我们不知道该公司将如何在未来几年内增长到当前的市值，而且由于其股价目前接近每股 24.16 美元的共识价格，因此可以有把握地假设 Palantir 在当前水平上的上涨空间有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p><p><blockquote>在我们有关 Palantir 的文章的评论部分，看涨投资者经常重复亚马逊 (AMZN) 二十多年来也没有盈利，因此 Palantir 也没有盈利的事实在现阶段并不是什么大问题。然而，亚马逊正在将大部分可用资源再投资回其业务，以积极推动增长，这最终是合理的，因为该公司现在每个季度都在赚钱，并且是世界上最大的电子商务公司。Palantir的情况并非如此，内部人士不断发行新股，然后将其倾销到市场，这不断稀释现有股东，扩大整体净亏损，对业务没有好处。最重要的是，Palantir 现在正在投资加密货币、SPAC 和金条，而不是自己的业务，这是亚马逊过去没有做的事情，现在也没有做。这就是为什么将 Palantir 与亚马逊进行比较没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们认为 Palantir 的股票不太可能很快大幅升值，因为抛售压力增加、持续稀释和估值过高是其当前价格上涨空间仍然有限的主要原因。因此，没有职位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：对股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside<blockquote>Palantir：对股东不友好的公司，上涨空间有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.</li> <li>The excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.</li> <li>We stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5c6d796592faec81d9a29502efa9c0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管营收业绩有所改善，Palantir 仍继续扩大净亏损。</li><li>过度的股票薪酬计划继续蚕食所有利润，并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。</li><li>我们坚持认为 Palantir 短期内无法创造大量股东价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>最近的第二季度收益报告显示，Palantir (PLTR) 继续努力提高其底线业绩，因为该公司在过度的股票薪酬计划上花费过多，这吞噬了所有利润，并掩盖了收入或自由现金流的任何增长。此外，年初以来的大规模稀释以及来自公司内部人士的持续抛售压力也阻碍了Palantir的股价升值。此外，Palantir 近几个月来相对于标普500指数的表现不佳，而且其股票自 3 月份以来没有太大变动，这一事实证明了我们的观点，即该公司在现阶段不是一项有吸引力的投资，因为有充分的理由相信不会很快就会创造很多股东价值。因此，我们仍然认为最好投资于市场上其他更具吸引力的机会，并避开 Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这只股票没有什么吸引人的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>在最近关于Palantir的文章中，关于Palantir的业务及其相对于其他竞争对手的优势已经说了很多，所以我们不会在本文中讨论它。然而，虽然 Palantir 确实具有一些主要优势，因为其软件解决方案难以复制，但我们也认为，在现阶段，其业务有多强大并不重要，因为某些因素可能会继续阻止该公司的股票很快就会升值。我们不要忽视这样一个事实，即 Palantir 的股票已从历史高点贬值了 45% 以上，自从我们 3 月份开始在 Seeking Alpha 上报道该公司以来，它也没有太大变动，我们仍然相信不会很快就会创造很多股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候发布的最新第二季度收益报告显示，尽管业务不断增长，Palantir 仍无法提高其底线业绩。虽然其收入环比增长10.1%，达到3.7564亿美元，毛利润环比增长6.6%，达到2.847亿美元，但其运营亏损环比增长28.2%，达到-1.461亿美元，而净亏损环比扩大12.2%，达到-1.386亿美元。业绩如此疲软的原因是过度的股票薪酬计划，这将阻止公司报告利润，因为在本财年的前六个月，SBC计划已经花费了超过4亿美元。仅在第二季度，Palantir 的股票薪酬支出就同比增长了 82%，达到 2.327 亿美元，第三季度和第四季度的进一步支出将掩盖今年收入或自由现金流的任何增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p><p><blockquote>过度SBC计划的另一个问题是，它不断稀释Palantir的股东。该公司已拥有 18.9 亿股流通股，高于一个月前的 18 亿股，也高于 2020 年底的 15.2 亿股。按照目前的稀释率，投资者应该预计该公司到今年年底将持有超过20亿股股票。这不仅会降低当前持有者的股票价值，而且由于数量较多，股票更难升值。如果 2019 年和 2020 年 Palantir 的每股收入分别为每股 1.29 美元和每股 1.12 美元，那么在过去 12 个月中，每股收入已经下降到仅每股 0.83 美元，并且可能会在未来几个季度进一步贬值。最重要的是，考虑到 Palantir 在第二季度末仍有 417,674 份未行使期权，平均行使价为每股 6.90 美元，进一步稀释的风险仍然很高，特别是因为一旦所有这些期权都被行使，它们将稀释所有投资者超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普（Alex Karp）继续施加额外的抛售压力，这也阻止了股价上涨。仅在第二季度，该公司内部人士就出售了价值创纪录的 1.97 亿美元的 Palantir 股票，而在第三季度上半年，他们已经出售了价值 9300 万美元的公司股票，几乎与第一季度出售的数量相同。随着越来越多的股票被抛入市场，股票的上涨变得越来越困难。考虑到内部人士不太可能停止出售股票，因为他们仍然拥有超过 10% 的流通股，并且每个季度都通过行使期权来增加股票总数，普通股东不应指望 Palantir 的股票会快速升值在可预见的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 的另一个缺点是，即使以目前的价格，它也根本不是一只便宜的股票；它的市值为 470 亿美元，交易价格是其销售额的 30 倍。因此，公司需要更高的营收增长率才能达到目前的估值，而这种情况不太可能很快发生。目前，华尔街预计 Palantir 在 21 财年的收入仅为 15 亿美元，到 2025 年，该公司的年收入不太可能超过 35 亿美元。考虑到现阶段 Palantir 积压的合同价值仅为 34 亿美元，并且这些合同将在未来几年内延长，可以肯定地说，其股票在当前水平上被严重高估。我们不知道该公司将如何在未来几年内增长到当前的市值，而且由于其股价目前接近每股 24.16 美元的共识价格，因此可以有把握地假设 Palantir 在当前水平上的上涨空间有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p><p><blockquote>在我们有关 Palantir 的文章的评论部分，看涨投资者经常重复亚马逊 (AMZN) 二十多年来也没有盈利，因此 Palantir 也没有盈利的事实在现阶段并不是什么大问题。然而，亚马逊正在将大部分可用资源再投资回其业务，以积极推动增长，这最终是合理的，因为该公司现在每个季度都在赚钱，并且是世界上最大的电子商务公司。Palantir的情况并非如此，内部人士不断发行新股，然后将其倾销到市场，这不断稀释现有股东，扩大整体净亏损，对业务没有好处。最重要的是，Palantir 现在正在投资加密货币、SPAC 和金条，而不是自己的业务，这是亚马逊过去没有做的事情，现在也没有做。这就是为什么将 Palantir 与亚马逊进行比较没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们认为 Palantir 的股票不太可能很快大幅升值，因为抛售压力增加、持续稀释和估值过高是其当前价格上涨空间仍然有限的主要原因。因此，没有职位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195506103","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.\nWe stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.\nThere's Nothing Attractive About This Stock\nA lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nThe latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.\nSource: Palantir\nAnother problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.\nSource: Palantir\nOn top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.\nTakeaway\nBullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.\nConsidering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3930,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/837702263"}
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