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2021-08-19
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How to Hedge Your Stock Portfolio Before Interest Rates Start Rising<blockquote>如何在利率开始上升之前对冲您的股票投资组合</blockquote>
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He would now be very busy, as many ominous events are bounding across the world’s stage.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护自己的股票，这个警惕的男孩会不断买入看跌期权合约，因为他预计股价会下跌。他现在会非常忙，因为许多不祥的事件正在世界舞台上跳跃。</blockquote></p><p> Thefall of Afghanistanis a potentially destabilizing market event, especially ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>阿富汗的陷落是一个潜在的破坏市场稳定的事件，尤其是在9月11日美国恐怖袭击20周年之前。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgence of Covid-19, weakening retail sales, China saber-rattling toward Taiwan, China mocking America’s sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal, andsigns of sticky inflationare all reasons for extra vigilance.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19的死灰复燃、零售销售疲软、中国对台湾的武力威胁、中国嘲笑美国草率的阿富汗撤军以及粘性通胀的迹象都值得格外警惕。</blockquote></p><p> But the major event that would most alarm our hero would be the Federal Reserve’smeeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is expected to speak. He is the big, bad wolf of this reimagined story.</p><p><blockquote>但最让我们的英雄震惊的重大事件将是本月底在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储会议。美联储主席鲍威尔预计将发表讲话。他是这个重新想象的故事中的大灰狼。</blockquote></p><p> Powell’s speech might offer concrete clues about potential changes to monetary policy—which could pummel stocks.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔的讲话可能会为货币政策的潜在变化提供具体线索，这可能会打击股市。</blockquote></p><p> When interest rates are low, as they are now, investors can move far out on the so-called risk curve. It’s cheap to borrow money and thus relatively easy to make money doing something as simple asbuying dividend-paying stocksand as complex as quantitative trading. With rates low enough, even Bitcoin and emerging market debt can be attractive.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，就像现在一样，投资者可以在所谓的风险曲线上走得更远。借钱很便宜，因此做一些简单的事情（如购买派息股票）和复杂的事情（如量化交易）赚钱相对容易。由于利率足够低，即使是比特币和新兴市场的债务也可能具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Yet this time, even if the boy who cried wolf is wrong, investors need to be aware that many others will be listening to himahead of expected changes to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这一次，即使喊狼来了的男孩是错的，投资者也需要意识到，许多其他人将听取他关于利率预期变化的意见。</blockquote></p><p> Stock prices are generally dancing around record highs—a phrase used in this column year after year—as historically low interest rates remain the central defining fact of the market.</p><p><blockquote>由于历史低利率仍然是市场的核心定义事实，股价通常在历史高点附近波动——这是本专栏年复一年使用的一个短语。</blockquote></p><p> But it seems that the more investors talk about corrections, or why corrections won’t happen, the bearish narrative prevails, at least for a bit.</p><p><blockquote>但似乎投资者越多地谈论调整，或者为什么调整不会发生，看跌的说法就占了上风，至少在一段时间内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations that something will soon happen to easy-money rates are leading to a burst of hedging activity.</p><p><blockquote>对宽松货币利率很快就会发生变化的预期正在导致对冲活动的爆发。</blockquote></p><p> One major investor has created a bearish position in theSPDR S&P 500exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY) that would prove profitable if the stock market fell about 4% by Sept. 3. The investor sold 25,000 September $427 put options and bought 25,000 $440 puts, all expiring on Sept. 3, to cover the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28.</p><p><blockquote>一位主要投资者在SPDR S&P 500交易所交易基金（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）中建立了看跌头寸，如果股市到9月3日下跌约4%，该基金将会盈利。该投资者卖出了25,000份9月427美元看跌期权，并买入了25,000份440美元看跌期权，全部将于9月3日到期，以覆盖8月26日至8月28日举行的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> This column has rarely offered a suggestion to hedge portfolios. It has almost always seemed better to us to sell puts to anxious investors and use the proceeds to buy upside call options to profit from stock advances.</p><p><blockquote>本专栏很少提供对冲投资组合的建议。对我们来说，向焦虑的投资者出售看跌期权并用所得收益购买上行看涨期权期权以从股票上涨中获利似乎总是更好。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, we have been hesitant to recommend stock-replacement strategies. Because low interest rates always seemed the key ingredient in the bull market, there was seldom a strategic reason for selling stocks and buying calls.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也一直犹豫是否推荐股票替换策略。因为低利率似乎总是牛市的关键因素，所以很少有卖出股票和买入评级的战略理由。</blockquote></p><p> But now, using upside calls as stock surrogates does indeed seem attractive for anyone who thinks that rates could rise. The strategy is worth pondering for investors with substantial stock profits.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，对于任何认为利率可能上升的人来说，使用上行评级作为股票替代品似乎确实很有吸引力。对于股票利润丰厚的投资者来说，该策略值得深思。</blockquote></p><p> If this resonates, review your stocks. Sell enough shares to realize a profit of, say, 50% to 100% on your initial investment. If you sold 500 shares to lock in gains, for example, buy a corresponding number of upside calls that expire in, say, three months. This will buy you just enough time to see how the stock—and the market—performs.</p><p><blockquote>如果这引起了共鸣，请检查您的股票。出售足够的股票以实现初始投资50%到100%的利润。例如，如果您出售500股以锁定收益，请购买相应数量的三个月后到期的上涨评级。这将为您赢得足够的时间来了解股票和市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The goal is not to be scared of wolves, and to make sure that your appetite for volatility is aligned with your investment timeline.</p><p><blockquote>目标是不要害怕狼，并确保您对波动性的偏好与您的投资时间表一致。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Steven M. Sears is the president and chief operating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm has a position in the options or underlying securities mentioned in this column.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Steven M.Sears是专业资产管理公司Options Solutions的总裁兼首席运营官。他和公司都没有在本专栏提到的期权或基础证券中持有头寸。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to Hedge Your Stock Portfolio Before Interest Rates Start Rising<blockquote>如何在利率开始上升之前对冲您的股票投资组合</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to Hedge Your Stock Portfolio Before Interest Rates Start Rising<blockquote>如何在利率开始上升之前对冲您的股票投资组合</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 16:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If fairy tales were made into parables about investing, the boy who cried wolf would run a tail-risk fund.</p><p><blockquote>如果童话故事被改编成关于投资的寓言，喊狼来了的男孩将经营一只尾部风险基金。</blockquote></p><p> To protect his stocks, the vigilant boy would perpetually buybearish options contractsin anticipation that stock prices would fall. He would now be very busy, as many ominous events are bounding across the world’s stage.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护自己的股票，这个警惕的男孩会不断买入看跌期权合约，因为他预计股价会下跌。他现在会非常忙，因为许多不祥的事件正在世界舞台上跳跃。</blockquote></p><p> Thefall of Afghanistanis a potentially destabilizing market event, especially ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>阿富汗的陷落是一个潜在的破坏市场稳定的事件，尤其是在9月11日美国恐怖袭击20周年之前。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgence of Covid-19, weakening retail sales, China saber-rattling toward Taiwan, China mocking America’s sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal, andsigns of sticky inflationare all reasons for extra vigilance.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19的死灰复燃、零售销售疲软、中国对台湾的武力威胁、中国嘲笑美国草率的阿富汗撤军以及粘性通胀的迹象都值得格外警惕。</blockquote></p><p> But the major event that would most alarm our hero would be the Federal Reserve’smeeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is expected to speak. He is the big, bad wolf of this reimagined story.</p><p><blockquote>但最让我们的英雄震惊的重大事件将是本月底在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储会议。美联储主席鲍威尔预计将发表讲话。他是这个重新想象的故事中的大灰狼。</blockquote></p><p> Powell’s speech might offer concrete clues about potential changes to monetary policy—which could pummel stocks.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔的讲话可能会为货币政策的潜在变化提供具体线索，这可能会打击股市。</blockquote></p><p> When interest rates are low, as they are now, investors can move far out on the so-called risk curve. It’s cheap to borrow money and thus relatively easy to make money doing something as simple asbuying dividend-paying stocksand as complex as quantitative trading. With rates low enough, even Bitcoin and emerging market debt can be attractive.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，就像现在一样，投资者可以在所谓的风险曲线上走得更远。借钱很便宜，因此做一些简单的事情（如购买派息股票）和复杂的事情（如量化交易）赚钱相对容易。由于利率足够低，即使是比特币和新兴市场的债务也可能具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Yet this time, even if the boy who cried wolf is wrong, investors need to be aware that many others will be listening to himahead of expected changes to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这一次，即使喊狼来了的男孩是错的，投资者也需要意识到，许多其他人将听取他关于利率预期变化的意见。</blockquote></p><p> Stock prices are generally dancing around record highs—a phrase used in this column year after year—as historically low interest rates remain the central defining fact of the market.</p><p><blockquote>由于历史低利率仍然是市场的核心定义事实，股价通常在历史高点附近波动——这是本专栏年复一年使用的一个短语。</blockquote></p><p> But it seems that the more investors talk about corrections, or why corrections won’t happen, the bearish narrative prevails, at least for a bit.</p><p><blockquote>但似乎投资者越多地谈论调整，或者为什么调整不会发生，看跌的说法就占了上风，至少在一段时间内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations that something will soon happen to easy-money rates are leading to a burst of hedging activity.</p><p><blockquote>对宽松货币利率很快就会发生变化的预期正在导致对冲活动的爆发。</blockquote></p><p> One major investor has created a bearish position in theSPDR S&P 500exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY) that would prove profitable if the stock market fell about 4% by Sept. 3. The investor sold 25,000 September $427 put options and bought 25,000 $440 puts, all expiring on Sept. 3, to cover the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28.</p><p><blockquote>一位主要投资者在SPDR S&P 500交易所交易基金（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）中建立了看跌头寸，如果股市到9月3日下跌约4%，该基金将会盈利。该投资者卖出了25,000份9月427美元看跌期权，并买入了25,000份440美元看跌期权，全部将于9月3日到期，以覆盖8月26日至8月28日举行的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> This column has rarely offered a suggestion to hedge portfolios. It has almost always seemed better to us to sell puts to anxious investors and use the proceeds to buy upside call options to profit from stock advances.</p><p><blockquote>本专栏很少提供对冲投资组合的建议。对我们来说，向焦虑的投资者出售看跌期权并用所得收益购买上行看涨期权期权以从股票上涨中获利似乎总是更好。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, we have been hesitant to recommend stock-replacement strategies. Because low interest rates always seemed the key ingredient in the bull market, there was seldom a strategic reason for selling stocks and buying calls.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也一直犹豫是否推荐股票替换策略。因为低利率似乎总是牛市的关键因素，所以很少有卖出股票和买入评级的战略理由。</blockquote></p><p> But now, using upside calls as stock surrogates does indeed seem attractive for anyone who thinks that rates could rise. The strategy is worth pondering for investors with substantial stock profits.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，对于任何认为利率可能上升的人来说，使用上行评级作为股票替代品似乎确实很有吸引力。对于股票利润丰厚的投资者来说，该策略值得深思。</blockquote></p><p> If this resonates, review your stocks. Sell enough shares to realize a profit of, say, 50% to 100% on your initial investment. If you sold 500 shares to lock in gains, for example, buy a corresponding number of upside calls that expire in, say, three months. This will buy you just enough time to see how the stock—and the market—performs.</p><p><blockquote>如果这引起了共鸣，请检查您的股票。出售足够的股票以实现初始投资50%到100%的利润。例如，如果您出售500股以锁定收益，请购买相应数量的三个月后到期的上涨评级。这将为您赢得足够的时间来了解股票和市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The goal is not to be scared of wolves, and to make sure that your appetite for volatility is aligned with your investment timeline.</p><p><blockquote>目标是不要害怕狼，并确保您对波动性的偏好与您的投资时间表一致。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Steven M. Sears is the president and chief operating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm has a position in the options or underlying securities mentioned in this column.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Steven M.Sears是专业资产管理公司Options Solutions的总裁兼首席运营官。他和公司都没有在本专栏提到的期权或基础证券中持有头寸。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-to-hedge-your-stock-portfolio-before-interest-rates-start-rising-51629361806?mod=mw_latestnews\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-to-hedge-your-stock-portfolio-before-interest-rates-start-rising-51629361806?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118120303","content_text":"If fairy tales were made into parables about investing, the boy who cried wolf would run a tail-risk fund.\nTo protect his stocks, the vigilant boy would perpetually buybearish options contractsin anticipation that stock prices would fall. He would now be very busy, as many ominous events are bounding across the world’s stage.\nThefall of Afghanistanis a potentially destabilizing market event, especially ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S.\nThe resurgence of Covid-19, weakening retail sales, China saber-rattling toward Taiwan, China mocking America’s sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal, andsigns of sticky inflationare all reasons for extra vigilance.\nBut the major event that would most alarm our hero would be the Federal Reserve’smeeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is expected to speak. He is the big, bad wolf of this reimagined story.\nPowell’s speech might offer concrete clues about potential changes to monetary policy—which could pummel stocks.\nWhen interest rates are low, as they are now, investors can move far out on the so-called risk curve. It’s cheap to borrow money and thus relatively easy to make money doing something as simple asbuying dividend-paying stocksand as complex as quantitative trading. With rates low enough, even Bitcoin and emerging market debt can be attractive.\nYet this time, even if the boy who cried wolf is wrong, investors need to be aware that many others will be listening to himahead of expected changes to interest rates.\nStock prices are generally dancing around record highs—a phrase used in this column year after year—as historically low interest rates remain the central defining fact of the market.\nBut it seems that the more investors talk about corrections, or why corrections won’t happen, the bearish narrative prevails, at least for a bit.\nExpectations that something will soon happen to easy-money rates are leading to a burst of hedging activity.\nOne major investor has created a bearish position in theSPDR S&P 500exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY) that would prove profitable if the stock market fell about 4% by Sept. 3. The investor sold 25,000 September $427 put options and bought 25,000 $440 puts, all expiring on Sept. 3, to cover the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28.\nThis column has rarely offered a suggestion to hedge portfolios. It has almost always seemed better to us to sell puts to anxious investors and use the proceeds to buy upside call options to profit from stock advances.\nSimilarly, we have been hesitant to recommend stock-replacement strategies. Because low interest rates always seemed the key ingredient in the bull market, there was seldom a strategic reason for selling stocks and buying calls.\nBut now, using upside calls as stock surrogates does indeed seem attractive for anyone who thinks that rates could rise. The strategy is worth pondering for investors with substantial stock profits.\nIf this resonates, review your stocks. Sell enough shares to realize a profit of, say, 50% to 100% on your initial investment. If you sold 500 shares to lock in gains, for example, buy a corresponding number of upside calls that expire in, say, three months. This will buy you just enough time to see how the stock—and the market—performs.\nThe goal is not to be scared of wolves, and to make sure that your appetite for volatility is aligned with your investment timeline.\nSteven M. Sears is the president and chief operating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm has a position in the options or underlying securities mentioned in this column.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1564,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/838992010"}
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