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2021-08-19
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How to Hedge Your Stock Portfolio Before Interest Rates Start Rising<blockquote>如何在利率开始上升之前对冲您的股票投资组合</blockquote>
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He would now be very busy, as many ominous events are bounding across the world’s stage.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护自己的股票，这个警惕的男孩会永远购买看跌的期权合约，预期股价会下跌。他现在会非常忙碌，因为许多不祥的事件正在世界舞台上演。</blockquote></p><p> Thefall of Afghanistanis a potentially destabilizing market event, especially ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>阿富汗人的陨落可能会破坏市场稳定，尤其是在美国遭受 9·11 恐怖袭击 20 周年纪念日之前。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgence of Covid-19, weakening retail sales, China saber-rattling toward Taiwan, China mocking America’s sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal, andsigns of sticky inflationare all reasons for extra vigilance.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19 的死灰复燃、零售销售疲软、中国对台湾的咄咄逼人、中国嘲笑美国从阿富汗草率撤军，以及粘性通胀的迹象，都值得格外警惕。</blockquote></p><p> But the major event that would most alarm our hero would be the Federal Reserve’smeeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is expected to speak. He is the big, bad wolf of this reimagined story.</p><p><blockquote>但最让我们的英雄感到震惊的重大事件将是本月底在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储会议。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔预计将发表讲话。他是这个重新想象的故事中的大灰狼。</blockquote></p><p> Powell’s speech might offer concrete clues about potential changes to monetary policy—which could pummel stocks.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔的讲话可能会提供有关货币政策潜在变化的具体线索--这可能会打击股市。</blockquote></p><p> When interest rates are low, as they are now, investors can move far out on the so-called risk curve. It’s cheap to borrow money and thus relatively easy to make money doing something as simple asbuying dividend-paying stocksand as complex as quantitative trading. With rates low enough, even Bitcoin and emerging market debt can be attractive.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，就像现在一样，投资者可以在所谓的风险曲线上走得很远。借钱很便宜，因此赚钱相对容易，简单的事情比如购买派息股票，复杂的事情比如量化交易。如果利率足够低，即使是比特币和新兴市场债务也可能具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Yet this time, even if the boy who cried wolf is wrong, investors need to be aware that many others will be listening to himahead of expected changes to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而这一次，即使狼来了的男孩是错的，投资者也需要意识到，许多其他人将听取希玛黑德关于利率预期变化的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Stock prices are generally dancing around record highs—a phrase used in this column year after year—as historically low interest rates remain the central defining fact of the market.</p><p><blockquote>由于历史低利率仍然是市场的核心决定性事实，股票价格通常在历史高点附近徘徊（本专栏年复一年地使用这个短语）。</blockquote></p><p> But it seems that the more investors talk about corrections, or why corrections won’t happen, the bearish narrative prevails, at least for a bit.</p><p><blockquote>但似乎越多的投资者谈论调整，或者为什么调整不会发生，看跌的说法就越盛行，至少在一段时间内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations that something will soon happen to easy-money rates are leading to a burst of hedging activity.</p><p><blockquote>宽松货币利率很快就会发生变化的预期导致了对冲活动的爆发。</blockquote></p><p> One major investor has created a bearish position in theSPDR S&P 500exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY) that would prove profitable if the stock market fell about 4% by Sept. 3. The investor sold 25,000 September $427 put options and bought 25,000 $440 puts, all expiring on Sept. 3, to cover the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28.</p><p><blockquote>一位主要投资者在 PDR S&P 500 交易所交易基金（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）中建立了看跌头寸，如果股市在 9 月 3 日之前下跌约 4%，该基金将被证明是有利可图的。该投资者卖出了 2.5 万份 9 月份 427 美元的看跌期权，并买入了 2.5 万份 440 美元的看跌期权，全部将于 9 月 3 日到期，以应对 8 月 26 日至 8 月 28 日举行的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> This column has rarely offered a suggestion to hedge portfolios. It has almost always seemed better to us to sell puts to anxious investors and use the proceeds to buy upside call options to profit from stock advances.</p><p><blockquote>本专栏很少提供对冲投资组合的建议。在我们看来，向焦虑的投资者出售看跌期权，并用所得款项购买上行看涨期权期权，以从股票预付款中获利，几乎总是更好。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, we have been hesitant to recommend stock-replacement strategies. Because low interest rates always seemed the key ingredient in the bull market, there was seldom a strategic reason for selling stocks and buying calls.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们在推荐股票替代策略方面也一直犹豫不决。由于低利率似乎总是牛市的关键因素，因此很少有出售股票和购买评级的战略理由。</blockquote></p><p> But now, using upside calls as stock surrogates does indeed seem attractive for anyone who thinks that rates could rise. The strategy is worth pondering for investors with substantial stock profits.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，对于任何认为利率可能上升的人来说，使用上行评级作为股票替代品确实很有吸引力。该策略值得拥有可观股票利润的投资者深思。</blockquote></p><p> If this resonates, review your stocks. Sell enough shares to realize a profit of, say, 50% to 100% on your initial investment. If you sold 500 shares to lock in gains, for example, buy a corresponding number of upside calls that expire in, say, three months. This will buy you just enough time to see how the stock—and the market—performs.</p><p><blockquote>如果这引起了共鸣，请回顾您的股票。出售足够的股票，以实现初始投资 50% 到 100% 的利润。例如，如果您出售 500 股以锁定收益，则购买相应数量的上行评级，这些评级将在三个月内到期。这将为您赢得足够的时间来了解股票和市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The goal is not to be scared of wolves, and to make sure that your appetite for volatility is aligned with your investment timeline.</p><p><blockquote>目标是不要害怕狼，并确保您对波动性的兴趣与您的投资时间表一致。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Steven M. Sears is the president and chief operating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm has a position in the options or underlying securities mentioned in this column.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Steven M. Sears 是专业资产管理公司 Options Solutions 的总裁兼首席运营官。他和公司都没有持有本专栏提到的期权或基础证券的头寸。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to Hedge Your Stock Portfolio Before Interest Rates Start Rising<blockquote>如何在利率开始上升之前对冲您的股票投资组合</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to Hedge Your Stock Portfolio Before Interest Rates Start Rising<blockquote>如何在利率开始上升之前对冲您的股票投资组合</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 16:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If fairy tales were made into parables about investing, the boy who cried wolf would run a tail-risk fund.</p><p><blockquote>如果把童话故事变成关于投资的寓言，《狼来了的男孩》就会经营一只尾部风险基金。</blockquote></p><p> To protect his stocks, the vigilant boy would perpetually buybearish options contractsin anticipation that stock prices would fall. He would now be very busy, as many ominous events are bounding across the world’s stage.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护自己的股票，这个警惕的男孩会永远购买看跌的期权合约，预期股价会下跌。他现在会非常忙碌，因为许多不祥的事件正在世界舞台上演。</blockquote></p><p> Thefall of Afghanistanis a potentially destabilizing market event, especially ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>阿富汗人的陨落可能会破坏市场稳定，尤其是在美国遭受 9·11 恐怖袭击 20 周年纪念日之前。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgence of Covid-19, weakening retail sales, China saber-rattling toward Taiwan, China mocking America’s sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal, andsigns of sticky inflationare all reasons for extra vigilance.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19 的死灰复燃、零售销售疲软、中国对台湾的咄咄逼人、中国嘲笑美国从阿富汗草率撤军，以及粘性通胀的迹象，都值得格外警惕。</blockquote></p><p> But the major event that would most alarm our hero would be the Federal Reserve’smeeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is expected to speak. He is the big, bad wolf of this reimagined story.</p><p><blockquote>但最让我们的英雄感到震惊的重大事件将是本月底在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储会议。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔预计将发表讲话。他是这个重新想象的故事中的大灰狼。</blockquote></p><p> Powell’s speech might offer concrete clues about potential changes to monetary policy—which could pummel stocks.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔的讲话可能会提供有关货币政策潜在变化的具体线索--这可能会打击股市。</blockquote></p><p> When interest rates are low, as they are now, investors can move far out on the so-called risk curve. It’s cheap to borrow money and thus relatively easy to make money doing something as simple asbuying dividend-paying stocksand as complex as quantitative trading. With rates low enough, even Bitcoin and emerging market debt can be attractive.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，就像现在一样，投资者可以在所谓的风险曲线上走得很远。借钱很便宜，因此赚钱相对容易，简单的事情比如购买派息股票，复杂的事情比如量化交易。如果利率足够低，即使是比特币和新兴市场债务也可能具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Yet this time, even if the boy who cried wolf is wrong, investors need to be aware that many others will be listening to himahead of expected changes to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而这一次，即使狼来了的男孩是错的，投资者也需要意识到，许多其他人将听取希玛黑德关于利率预期变化的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Stock prices are generally dancing around record highs—a phrase used in this column year after year—as historically low interest rates remain the central defining fact of the market.</p><p><blockquote>由于历史低利率仍然是市场的核心决定性事实，股票价格通常在历史高点附近徘徊（本专栏年复一年地使用这个短语）。</blockquote></p><p> But it seems that the more investors talk about corrections, or why corrections won’t happen, the bearish narrative prevails, at least for a bit.</p><p><blockquote>但似乎越多的投资者谈论调整，或者为什么调整不会发生，看跌的说法就越盛行，至少在一段时间内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations that something will soon happen to easy-money rates are leading to a burst of hedging activity.</p><p><blockquote>宽松货币利率很快就会发生变化的预期导致了对冲活动的爆发。</blockquote></p><p> One major investor has created a bearish position in theSPDR S&P 500exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY) that would prove profitable if the stock market fell about 4% by Sept. 3. The investor sold 25,000 September $427 put options and bought 25,000 $440 puts, all expiring on Sept. 3, to cover the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28.</p><p><blockquote>一位主要投资者在 PDR S&P 500 交易所交易基金（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）中建立了看跌头寸，如果股市在 9 月 3 日之前下跌约 4%，该基金将被证明是有利可图的。该投资者卖出了 2.5 万份 9 月份 427 美元的看跌期权，并买入了 2.5 万份 440 美元的看跌期权，全部将于 9 月 3 日到期，以应对 8 月 26 日至 8 月 28 日举行的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> This column has rarely offered a suggestion to hedge portfolios. It has almost always seemed better to us to sell puts to anxious investors and use the proceeds to buy upside call options to profit from stock advances.</p><p><blockquote>本专栏很少提供对冲投资组合的建议。在我们看来，向焦虑的投资者出售看跌期权，并用所得款项购买上行看涨期权期权，以从股票预付款中获利，几乎总是更好。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, we have been hesitant to recommend stock-replacement strategies. Because low interest rates always seemed the key ingredient in the bull market, there was seldom a strategic reason for selling stocks and buying calls.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们在推荐股票替代策略方面也一直犹豫不决。由于低利率似乎总是牛市的关键因素，因此很少有出售股票和购买评级的战略理由。</blockquote></p><p> But now, using upside calls as stock surrogates does indeed seem attractive for anyone who thinks that rates could rise. The strategy is worth pondering for investors with substantial stock profits.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，对于任何认为利率可能上升的人来说，使用上行评级作为股票替代品确实很有吸引力。该策略值得拥有可观股票利润的投资者深思。</blockquote></p><p> If this resonates, review your stocks. Sell enough shares to realize a profit of, say, 50% to 100% on your initial investment. If you sold 500 shares to lock in gains, for example, buy a corresponding number of upside calls that expire in, say, three months. This will buy you just enough time to see how the stock—and the market—performs.</p><p><blockquote>如果这引起了共鸣，请回顾您的股票。出售足够的股票，以实现初始投资 50% 到 100% 的利润。例如，如果您出售 500 股以锁定收益，则购买相应数量的上行评级，这些评级将在三个月内到期。这将为您赢得足够的时间来了解股票和市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The goal is not to be scared of wolves, and to make sure that your appetite for volatility is aligned with your investment timeline.</p><p><blockquote>目标是不要害怕狼，并确保您对波动性的兴趣与您的投资时间表一致。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Steven M. Sears is the president and chief operating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm has a position in the options or underlying securities mentioned in this column.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Steven M. Sears 是专业资产管理公司 Options Solutions 的总裁兼首席运营官。他和公司都没有持有本专栏提到的期权或基础证券的头寸。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-to-hedge-your-stock-portfolio-before-interest-rates-start-rising-51629361806?mod=mw_latestnews\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-to-hedge-your-stock-portfolio-before-interest-rates-start-rising-51629361806?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118120303","content_text":"If fairy tales were made into parables about investing, the boy who cried wolf would run a tail-risk fund.\nTo protect his stocks, the vigilant boy would perpetually buybearish options contractsin anticipation that stock prices would fall. He would now be very busy, as many ominous events are bounding across the world’s stage.\nThefall of Afghanistanis a potentially destabilizing market event, especially ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S.\nThe resurgence of Covid-19, weakening retail sales, China saber-rattling toward Taiwan, China mocking America’s sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal, andsigns of sticky inflationare all reasons for extra vigilance.\nBut the major event that would most alarm our hero would be the Federal Reserve’smeeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is expected to speak. He is the big, bad wolf of this reimagined story.\nPowell’s speech might offer concrete clues about potential changes to monetary policy—which could pummel stocks.\nWhen interest rates are low, as they are now, investors can move far out on the so-called risk curve. It’s cheap to borrow money and thus relatively easy to make money doing something as simple asbuying dividend-paying stocksand as complex as quantitative trading. With rates low enough, even Bitcoin and emerging market debt can be attractive.\nYet this time, even if the boy who cried wolf is wrong, investors need to be aware that many others will be listening to himahead of expected changes to interest rates.\nStock prices are generally dancing around record highs—a phrase used in this column year after year—as historically low interest rates remain the central defining fact of the market.\nBut it seems that the more investors talk about corrections, or why corrections won’t happen, the bearish narrative prevails, at least for a bit.\nExpectations that something will soon happen to easy-money rates are leading to a burst of hedging activity.\nOne major investor has created a bearish position in theSPDR S&P 500exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY) that would prove profitable if the stock market fell about 4% by Sept. 3. The investor sold 25,000 September $427 put options and bought 25,000 $440 puts, all expiring on Sept. 3, to cover the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28.\nThis column has rarely offered a suggestion to hedge portfolios. It has almost always seemed better to us to sell puts to anxious investors and use the proceeds to buy upside call options to profit from stock advances.\nSimilarly, we have been hesitant to recommend stock-replacement strategies. Because low interest rates always seemed the key ingredient in the bull market, there was seldom a strategic reason for selling stocks and buying calls.\nBut now, using upside calls as stock surrogates does indeed seem attractive for anyone who thinks that rates could rise. The strategy is worth pondering for investors with substantial stock profits.\nIf this resonates, review your stocks. Sell enough shares to realize a profit of, say, 50% to 100% on your initial investment. If you sold 500 shares to lock in gains, for example, buy a corresponding number of upside calls that expire in, say, three months. This will buy you just enough time to see how the stock—and the market—performs.\nThe goal is not to be scared of wolves, and to make sure that your appetite for volatility is aligned with your investment timeline.\nSteven M. Sears is the president and chief operating officer of Options Solutions, a specialized asset-management firm. Neither he nor the firm has a position in the options or underlying securities mentioned in this column.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/838997972"}
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