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2021-08-16

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Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>

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Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.<blockquote>如果通胀居高不下、失业率迅速下降，尽早减少债券购买可以为加息提供更大的灵活性。如果经济持续复苏，美联储官员接近同意在大约三个月内开始缩减宽松货币政策，一些人正在推动在明年年中结束资产购买计划。</blockquote> In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.<blockquote>在最近的采访和公开声明中，一些人主张制定这一时间表，如果经济朝着他们的目标快速前进，这将使他们能够比目前预期的更早加息。</blockquote> The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.<blockquote>央行去年12月表示，将继续目前的债券购买步伐，直到官员们得出结论，他们在实现2%平均通胀率和强劲就业的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote> Officials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.<blockquote>官员们在7月27日至28日的会议上审议了两个重要问题：何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及多快减少或缩减这些购买量。美联储将于周三发布会议纪要，可能会为这些讨论提供进一步线索。</blockquote> The answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.<blockquote>这些答案对金融市场很重要，因为美联储官员曾表示，他们更愿意在考虑何时从接近零的利率上调之前结束债券购买计划。在6月15日至16日的政策会议上，18名美联储官员中有13名预计将在2023年底前加息；预计到2022年底将有7家这样做。</blockquote> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在7月28日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储“距离考虑加息还有很长的路要走。这不是我们现在关注的事情”。</blockquote> A recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.<blockquote>最近一系列强劲的招聘报告增强了美联储在9月21日至22日的下一次会议上宣布开始缩减规模的意图的理由，可能最早在11月的下一次会议上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf5a9a0b2244055076f521102b5b4a\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.<blockquote>芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯上周在与记者举行的虚拟圆桌会议上表示：“我确实预计我们将看到实质性的进一步进展……可能是在今年晚些时候。”</blockquote> Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”<blockquote>波士顿联储主席Eric Rosengren在接受采访时表示，他预计到9月21日至22日将看到足够的就业增长，以满足减少债券购买的标准。他在上周接受采访时表示：“这将为今年秋季某个时候可能的缩减规模奠定基础，这取决于德尔塔变异毒株和其他不会大幅减缓劳动力市场的变量。”罗森格伦表示，他希望如果经济持续强劲增长，“我们将在明年年中完成缩减计划。”</blockquote> The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.<blockquote>美联储非常缓慢地结束了之前的债券购买计划，在10个月内减少了购买量。但在2013年12月，当它宣布将很快启动这一进程时，经济更加疲软，失业率更高，通胀更低。</blockquote> Officials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.<blockquote>官员们当时还有另一个谨慎的原因，因为他们对长期国债收益率飙升感到震惊，这被称为“缩减恐慌”，发生在2013年年中，当时的主席本·伯南克暗示他们可能很快就会减少资产购买。</blockquote> The Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.<blockquote>美联储现在发现自己处于一个截然不同的境地。经济快速增长。7月份失业率要低得多，为5.4%。通货膨胀要高得多。尽管央行讨论了减少债券购买的计划，但债券收益率今年仍大幅下跌。</blockquote> The asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.<blockquote>资产购买旨在通过压低长期利率以刺激借贷和支出来刺激经济。罗森格伦先生指出，最近房价的飙升证明该计划可能接近回报递减点。“如果你无法获得住房材料，也无法让建筑工人回到现场，但我们确实增加了对住房的需求，那么这对我们的就业任务没有多大作用——但它确实会增加房价。否则，”他说。</blockquote> Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”<blockquote>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰对此表示同意。他在接受采访时表示：“这些采购旨在刺激需求，但我们没有需求问题。”“在大衰退之后，我们做到了。所以我不想使用2009年至2013年的剧本。”</blockquote> Some other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.<blockquote>其他一些官员主张要有更多的耐心。美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)上个月表示，她希望看到9月份的招聘数据，该数据要到10月初才能公布，然后再做出决定。这将使任何缩减购债规模推迟到美联储11月2日至3日的会议。</blockquote> San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.<blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利上周在接受采访时表示，她认为经济应该支持“今年晚些时候，或者明年开始缩减规模”。她说，劳动力市场“非常强劲——越来越强劲”。</blockquote> Ms. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.<blockquote>戴利表示，现在说美联储应该如何减少购买还为时过早。“这些事情还没有决定，”她说。</blockquote> Likewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.<blockquote>同样，埃文斯没有透露他认为美联储需要多快结束购买。他预计明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将证明撤回货币刺激措施的紧迫性降低。</blockquote> “My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”<blockquote>他表示：“我自己的前景是，我们将面临更大的挑战，让通胀率自信地保持在2%、2.1%或2.2%的范围内。”“如果其他人更有信心通胀将在可持续的基础上走高，那么……更快的缩减可能是正确的道路。”</blockquote> Fed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.<blockquote>美联储官员尚未决定是否以同样的速度减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。</blockquote> Mr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.<blockquote>罗森格伦先生说，他更愿意每月减少等量。由于美联储购买的国债数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押贷款债券购买结束的时间是国债购买的一半。</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，他赞成在八个月内减少这两种债券的购买，即每月减少100亿美元的美国国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。“在我看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，然后逐步进行，对我来说，逐步意味着八个月，”他说。</blockquote> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.<blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他希望从10月份开始削减资产，并在3月份结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的美国国债购买量，每月减少100亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买量。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒也概述了类似的偏好。</blockquote> Even though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”<blockquote>尽管“这将是相当迅速地退出资产购买计划”，但布拉德在上周接受采访时表示，他认为这将使美联储在决定明年晚些时候是否加息方面具有更大的灵活性。“我不想（加息）行动太快，因为这可能具有很大的破坏性，所以我认为，如果我们需要使用它，我建议的步伐将在2022年为我们提供更多选择。”</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，通过更快地减少资产购买，美联储可能能够等待更长时间才能加息。他表示：“通过现在或很快采取更适当的货币政策立场，实际上可能会让你在未来如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活、更加耐心。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-08-16 20:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly. Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.<blockquote>如果通胀居高不下、失业率迅速下降，尽早减少债券购买可以为加息提供更大的灵活性。如果经济持续复苏，美联储官员接近同意在大约三个月内开始缩减宽松货币政策，一些人正在推动在明年年中结束资产购买计划。</blockquote> In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.<blockquote>在最近的采访和公开声明中，一些人主张制定这一时间表，如果经济朝着他们的目标快速前进，这将使他们能够比目前预期的更早加息。</blockquote> The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.<blockquote>央行去年12月表示，将继续目前的债券购买步伐，直到官员们得出结论，他们在实现2%平均通胀率和强劲就业的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote> Officials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.<blockquote>官员们在7月27日至28日的会议上审议了两个重要问题：何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及多快减少或缩减这些购买量。美联储将于周三发布会议纪要，可能会为这些讨论提供进一步线索。</blockquote> The answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.<blockquote>这些答案对金融市场很重要，因为美联储官员曾表示，他们更愿意在考虑何时从接近零的利率上调之前结束债券购买计划。在6月15日至16日的政策会议上，18名美联储官员中有13名预计将在2023年底前加息；预计到2022年底将有7家这样做。</blockquote> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在7月28日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储“距离考虑加息还有很长的路要走。这不是我们现在关注的事情”。</blockquote> A recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.<blockquote>最近一系列强劲的招聘报告增强了美联储在9月21日至22日的下一次会议上宣布开始缩减规模的意图的理由，可能最早在11月的下一次会议上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf5a9a0b2244055076f521102b5b4a\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.<blockquote>芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯上周在与记者举行的虚拟圆桌会议上表示：“我确实预计我们将看到实质性的进一步进展……可能是在今年晚些时候。”</blockquote> Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”<blockquote>波士顿联储主席Eric Rosengren在接受采访时表示，他预计到9月21日至22日将看到足够的就业增长，以满足减少债券购买的标准。他在上周接受采访时表示：“这将为今年秋季某个时候可能的缩减规模奠定基础，这取决于德尔塔变异毒株和其他不会大幅减缓劳动力市场的变量。”罗森格伦表示，他希望如果经济持续强劲增长，“我们将在明年年中完成缩减计划。”</blockquote> The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.<blockquote>美联储非常缓慢地结束了之前的债券购买计划，在10个月内减少了购买量。但在2013年12月，当它宣布将很快启动这一进程时，经济更加疲软，失业率更高，通胀更低。</blockquote> Officials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.<blockquote>官员们当时还有另一个谨慎的原因，因为他们对长期国债收益率飙升感到震惊，这被称为“缩减恐慌”，发生在2013年年中，当时的主席本·伯南克暗示他们可能很快就会减少资产购买。</blockquote> The Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.<blockquote>美联储现在发现自己处于一个截然不同的境地。经济快速增长。7月份失业率要低得多，为5.4%。通货膨胀要高得多。尽管央行讨论了减少债券购买的计划，但债券收益率今年仍大幅下跌。</blockquote> The asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.<blockquote>资产购买旨在通过压低长期利率以刺激借贷和支出来刺激经济。罗森格伦先生指出，最近房价的飙升证明该计划可能接近回报递减点。“如果你无法获得住房材料，也无法让建筑工人回到现场，但我们确实增加了对住房的需求，那么这对我们的就业任务没有多大作用——但它确实会增加房价。否则，”他说。</blockquote> Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”<blockquote>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰对此表示同意。他在接受采访时表示：“这些采购旨在刺激需求，但我们没有需求问题。”“在大衰退之后，我们做到了。所以我不想使用2009年至2013年的剧本。”</blockquote> Some other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.<blockquote>其他一些官员主张要有更多的耐心。美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)上个月表示，她希望看到9月份的招聘数据，该数据要到10月初才能公布，然后再做出决定。这将使任何缩减购债规模推迟到美联储11月2日至3日的会议。</blockquote> San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.<blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利上周在接受采访时表示，她认为经济应该支持“今年晚些时候，或者明年开始缩减规模”。她说，劳动力市场“非常强劲——越来越强劲”。</blockquote> Ms. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.<blockquote>戴利表示，现在说美联储应该如何减少购买还为时过早。“这些事情还没有决定，”她说。</blockquote> Likewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.<blockquote>同样，埃文斯没有透露他认为美联储需要多快结束购买。他预计明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将证明撤回货币刺激措施的紧迫性降低。</blockquote> “My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”<blockquote>他表示：“我自己的前景是，我们将面临更大的挑战，让通胀率自信地保持在2%、2.1%或2.2%的范围内。”“如果其他人更有信心通胀将在可持续的基础上走高，那么……更快的缩减可能是正确的道路。”</blockquote> Fed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.<blockquote>美联储官员尚未决定是否以同样的速度减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。</blockquote> Mr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.<blockquote>罗森格伦先生说，他更愿意每月减少等量。由于美联储购买的国债数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押贷款债券购买结束的时间是国债购买的一半。</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，他赞成在八个月内减少这两种债券的购买，即每月减少100亿美元的美国国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。“在我看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，然后逐步进行，对我来说，逐步意味着八个月，”他说。</blockquote> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.<blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他希望从10月份开始削减资产，并在3月份结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的美国国债购买量，每月减少100亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买量。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒也概述了类似的偏好。</blockquote> Even though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”<blockquote>尽管“这将是相当迅速地退出资产购买计划”，但布拉德在上周接受采访时表示，他认为这将使美联储在决定明年晚些时候是否加息方面具有更大的灵活性。“我不想（加息）行动太快，因为这可能具有很大的破坏性，所以我认为，如果我们需要使用它，我建议的步伐将在2022年为我们提供更多选择。”</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，通过更快地减少资产购买，美联储可能能够等待更长时间才能加息。他表示：“通过现在或很快采取更适当的货币政策立场，实际上可能会让你在未来如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活、更加耐心。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165935172","content_text":"Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly.\n\nFederal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.\nIn recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.\nThe central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.\nOfficials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.\nThe answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”\nA recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.\n“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.\nBoston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”\nThe Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.\nOfficials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.\nThe Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.\nThe asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.\nDallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”\nSome other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.\nSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.\nMs. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.\nLikewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.\n“My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”\nFed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.\nMr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.\nMr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.\nEven though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”\nMr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1569,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/839337010"}