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2021-08-17

好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议，完全不符合常识

Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":839766262,"tweetId":"839766262","gmtCreate":1629182819256,"gmtModify":1629182819256,"author":{"id":3559956192210914,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorId":3559956192210914,"authorIdStr":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识</body></html>","text":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839766262","repostId":1162723925,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li> <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li> <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.<blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley noted that<blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote> “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.” Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.<blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 1<blockquote>图表1</blockquote> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.<blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM<blockquote>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</blockquote> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"<blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2<blockquote>图表2</blockquote> #2 Increased DRAM content per PC<blockquote>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</blockquote> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.<blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.<blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.<blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 3<blockquote>图表3</blockquote> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.<blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4<blockquote>图表4</blockquote> #3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs<blockquote>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</blockquote> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.<blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5<blockquote>图表5</blockquote> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.<blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.<blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote> #4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)<blockquote>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</blockquote> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.<blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.<blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.<blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.<blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote> “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.” Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:<blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote> \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\" About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.<blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.<blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).<blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.<blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 6<blockquote>图表6</blockquote> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.<blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 7<blockquote>图表7</blockquote> Investor Takeaway<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:<blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote> <ul> <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li> <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li> <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li> <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.<blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-17 11:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li> <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li> <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.<blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley noted that<blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote> “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.” Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.<blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 1<blockquote>图表1</blockquote> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.<blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM<blockquote>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</blockquote> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"<blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2<blockquote>图表2</blockquote> #2 Increased DRAM content per PC<blockquote>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</blockquote> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.<blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.<blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.<blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 3<blockquote>图表3</blockquote> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.<blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4<blockquote>图表4</blockquote> #3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs<blockquote>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</blockquote> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.<blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5<blockquote>图表5</blockquote> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.<blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.<blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote> #4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)<blockquote>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</blockquote> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.<blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.<blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.<blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.<blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote> “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.” Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:<blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote> \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\" About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.<blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.<blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).<blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.<blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 6<blockquote>图表6</blockquote> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.<blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Chart 7<blockquote>图表7</blockquote> Investor Takeaway<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:<blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote> <ul> <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li> <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li> <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li> <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.<blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3977,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":64,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/839766262"}