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2021-10-31

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Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":840784736,"tweetId":"840784736","gmtCreate":1635689457118,"gmtModify":1635689457213,"author":{"id":3569900814433914,"idStr":"3569900814433914","authorId":3569900814433914,"authorIdStr":"3569900814433914","name":"bryanckc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":21,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like pls</body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840784736","repostId":2179471352,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.<blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在对他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们认为汽车制造可能会走上手机制造的道路，而且对于特斯拉来说，SLA+3.43%，与苹果APL（-1.82%）非常相似。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动力。</blockquote> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.<blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在本世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006 年，生产黑莓手机的 Research in Motion (RIM) 公司在针对 NTP 的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官下达了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，其市值达到了2300亿美元。</blockquote> But something else happened in 2007.<blockquote>但是2007年发生了别的事情。</blockquote> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.<blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.<blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.<blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在旧金山国际车展上推出Roadster 7个月后推出了iPhone。时间快进到 2021 年，多头认为苹果在手机制造领域取得的巨大成功可以通过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到复制。</blockquote> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.<blockquote>要实现这一点，我们首先假设在 15 年内，买家对任何车辆的 “外形 ”要求都大致相似。如今，有 250 个品牌的汽车销售，以满足各种口味和预算，可能还有 1,000 多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数种风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.<blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的款式或性能，而是主要取决于车内的软件。</blockquote> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.<blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件--最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力--无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.<blockquote>换句话说，假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.<blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三个季度，该公司报告的iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。该公司还报告了 “服务 ”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare 和其他领域的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由 iPhone 推动的（尽管并非全部），那么 iPhone 约占苹果销售额的 65%-70%。</blockquote> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.<blockquote>这意味着苹果在销售 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件方面也拥有庞大的业务（今年约 1100 亿美元）。因此，在我们的 “特斯拉就是苹果 ”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉也会对新产品进行类似的扩展。</blockquote> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.<blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务领域报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架内，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店产生类似的东西。</blockquote> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.<blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么 “汽车制造 ”领域的未来利润率--至少对一家制造商来说--理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升趋势。</blockquote> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.<blockquote>所以就手机市场份额而言，今年全球人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价将在320美元左右。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将销售约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.<blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhone的平均价格为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价销售其 iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它产生了高达 24% 的利润率。</blockquote> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.<blockquote>相比之下，1938 年开始运营的大众 VOW3,-0.49% VWAPY,-2.43% 的全球市场份额已达到 12.0%，净利润率为 5.0%。</blockquote> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.<blockquote>丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，也于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.<blockquote>就其价值而言，诺基亚在iPhone改变游戏规则之前创造了14%的净利润。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，手机制造对市场领导者来说的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.<blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约 7500 万辆新车，以 30,000 美元（大致）的平均价格计算，销售额将超过 2.2 万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为 4.5 亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大的、也是同类中最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis (FCA/标致) STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车SGM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马宝马，-0.11%等许多其他集团也拥有重要份额。</blockquote> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.<blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.<blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将把巨额研发和资本支出投入到即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型中。仅从资本支出指标来看，我们可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote> A lot more.<blockquote>更多。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL<blockquote>艾伯特桥资本</blockquote> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).<blockquote>不过，我们还是假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持市场份额。我们还可以设想，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.<blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过 500 亿美元。其中超过 85% 的销售额与其汽车业务有关。</blockquote> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.<blockquote>到 2035 年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的 95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的 16% 的市场份额（大大超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产 2200 万辆汽车和轻型卡车，销售额将超过 1 万亿美元。</blockquote> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).<blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近 70 亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约 12 亿美元利润）。</blockquote> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.<blockquote>如果特斯拉能够产生与苹果今天相同的 24% 净利润率（记住大众为 5%，丰田为 7%），那么它将在 2035 年产生约 2500 亿美元的收益。</blockquote> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.<blockquote>随着特斯拉从零到一百万辆汽车的发展，它已经在Freemont、Shanghai和不久的Austin建立了生产设施；内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀再次出现电池生产超级工厂；以及密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，加利福尼亚州还有两个工厂，德国还有三个工厂。</blockquote> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.<blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉从 2009 年的 3500 万股稀释股票增加到 2015 年的 6.41 亿股，再到如今的超过 11 亿股。当然，其中一些作为补偿发给了公司的主要高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供了资金。</blockquote> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.<blockquote>如果特斯拉每年要建造超过 2000 万辆汽车（高于今年的约 100 万辆），这将需要更多的资本。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流，让我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，每年新股发行量仅为 1.5%。按照这个速度，到 2035 年，他们 “只有 ”14 亿股股票。</blockquote> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.<blockquote>那一年，以平均售价 46,000 美元（同样是我们的猜测）生产 2200 万辆汽车，净利润率为 24%，这 2500 亿美元的收益将达到每股约 178 美元。</blockquote> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.<blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大限度地扩大市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个世俗的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时，其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，同样为了本次练习的目的，让我们假设特斯拉仍将找到一种方法，在 2500 亿美元的数字上继续实现 10% 的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.<blockquote>尽管经济放缓，但我们也假设投资者愿意为一家目前规模庞大且具有周期性的企业支付超过 20 的市盈率。</blockquote> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.<blockquote>如果市盈率为 22.5，那么市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元，股价为 4,000 美元。</blockquote> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.<blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了一些说法，但让我们也假设，从现在到 2035 年，今天的股东只希望每年赚取 10% 的收益。</blockquote> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.<blockquote>如果我们将这 4,000 美元折扣 10%，回到今天，这些股票的价值为 1,050 美元。</blockquote> That is pretty close to where we are right now.<blockquote>这与我们现在的情况非常接近。</blockquote> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.<blockquote>因此，以上就是 1,050 美元要想成为当今公平的股价需要发生的事情。</blockquote> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.<blockquote>怀疑者，诚然和我们一样，会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.<blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们--他们可能确实是对的--确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，才能让这一切变得有意义。</blockquote> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.<blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，要想让股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.<blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就都令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队一次性订购 10 万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售 100 万辆汽车。</blockquote> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.<blockquote>他会继续做不可思议的事情。 他改变了世界和竞争对手的心态。这些都是不可能的。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarket watch2021-10-30 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.<blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在对他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们认为汽车制造可能会走上手机制造的道路，而且对于特斯拉来说，SLA+3.43%，与苹果APL（-1.82%）非常相似。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动力。</blockquote> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.<blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在本世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006 年，生产黑莓手机的 Research in Motion (RIM) 公司在针对 NTP 的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官下达了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，其市值达到了2300亿美元。</blockquote> But something else happened in 2007.<blockquote>但是2007年发生了别的事情。</blockquote> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.<blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.<blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.<blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在旧金山国际车展上推出Roadster 7个月后推出了iPhone。时间快进到 2021 年，多头认为苹果在手机制造领域取得的巨大成功可以通过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到复制。</blockquote> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.<blockquote>要实现这一点，我们首先假设在 15 年内，买家对任何车辆的 “外形 ”要求都大致相似。如今，有 250 个品牌的汽车销售，以满足各种口味和预算，可能还有 1,000 多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数种风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.<blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的款式或性能，而是主要取决于车内的软件。</blockquote> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.<blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件--最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力--无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.<blockquote>换句话说，假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.<blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三个季度，该公司报告的iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。该公司还报告了 “服务 ”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare 和其他领域的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由 iPhone 推动的（尽管并非全部），那么 iPhone 约占苹果销售额的 65%-70%。</blockquote> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.<blockquote>这意味着苹果在销售 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件方面也拥有庞大的业务（今年约 1100 亿美元）。因此，在我们的 “特斯拉就是苹果 ”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉也会对新产品进行类似的扩展。</blockquote> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.<blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务领域报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架内，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店产生类似的东西。</blockquote> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.<blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么 “汽车制造 ”领域的未来利润率--至少对一家制造商来说--理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升趋势。</blockquote> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.<blockquote>所以就手机市场份额而言，今年全球人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价将在320美元左右。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将销售约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.<blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhone的平均价格为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价销售其 iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它产生了高达 24% 的利润率。</blockquote> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.<blockquote>相比之下，1938 年开始运营的大众 VOW3,-0.49% VWAPY,-2.43% 的全球市场份额已达到 12.0%，净利润率为 5.0%。</blockquote> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.<blockquote>丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，也于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.<blockquote>就其价值而言，诺基亚在iPhone改变游戏规则之前创造了14%的净利润。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，手机制造对市场领导者来说的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.<blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约 7500 万辆新车，以 30,000 美元（大致）的平均价格计算，销售额将超过 2.2 万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为 4.5 亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大的、也是同类中最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis (FCA/标致) STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车SGM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马宝马，-0.11%等许多其他集团也拥有重要份额。</blockquote> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.<blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.<blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将把巨额研发和资本支出投入到即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型中。仅从资本支出指标来看，我们可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote> A lot more.<blockquote>更多。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL<blockquote>艾伯特桥资本</blockquote> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).<blockquote>不过，我们还是假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持市场份额。我们还可以设想，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.<blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过 500 亿美元。其中超过 85% 的销售额与其汽车业务有关。</blockquote> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.<blockquote>到 2035 年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的 95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的 16% 的市场份额（大大超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产 2200 万辆汽车和轻型卡车，销售额将超过 1 万亿美元。</blockquote> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).<blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近 70 亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约 12 亿美元利润）。</blockquote> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.<blockquote>如果特斯拉能够产生与苹果今天相同的 24% 净利润率（记住大众为 5%，丰田为 7%），那么它将在 2035 年产生约 2500 亿美元的收益。</blockquote> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.<blockquote>随着特斯拉从零到一百万辆汽车的发展，它已经在Freemont、Shanghai和不久的Austin建立了生产设施；内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀再次出现电池生产超级工厂；以及密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，加利福尼亚州还有两个工厂，德国还有三个工厂。</blockquote> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.<blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉从 2009 年的 3500 万股稀释股票增加到 2015 年的 6.41 亿股，再到如今的超过 11 亿股。当然，其中一些作为补偿发给了公司的主要高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供了资金。</blockquote> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.<blockquote>如果特斯拉每年要建造超过 2000 万辆汽车（高于今年的约 100 万辆），这将需要更多的资本。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流，让我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，每年新股发行量仅为 1.5%。按照这个速度，到 2035 年，他们 “只有 ”14 亿股股票。</blockquote> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.<blockquote>那一年，以平均售价 46,000 美元（同样是我们的猜测）生产 2200 万辆汽车，净利润率为 24%，这 2500 亿美元的收益将达到每股约 178 美元。</blockquote> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.<blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大限度地扩大市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个世俗的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时，其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，同样为了本次练习的目的，让我们假设特斯拉仍将找到一种方法，在 2500 亿美元的数字上继续实现 10% 的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.<blockquote>尽管经济放缓，但我们也假设投资者愿意为一家目前规模庞大且具有周期性的企业支付超过 20 的市盈率。</blockquote> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.<blockquote>如果市盈率为 22.5，那么市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元，股价为 4,000 美元。</blockquote> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.<blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了一些说法，但让我们也假设，从现在到 2035 年，今天的股东只希望每年赚取 10% 的收益。</blockquote> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.<blockquote>如果我们将这 4,000 美元折扣 10%，回到今天，这些股票的价值为 1,050 美元。</blockquote> That is pretty close to where we are right now.<blockquote>这与我们现在的情况非常接近。</blockquote> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.<blockquote>因此，以上就是 1,050 美元要想成为当今公平的股价需要发生的事情。</blockquote> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.<blockquote>怀疑者，诚然和我们一样，会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.<blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们--他们可能确实是对的--确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，才能让这一切变得有意义。</blockquote> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.<blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，要想让股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.<blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就都令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队一次性订购 10 万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售 100 万辆汽车。</blockquote> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.<blockquote>他会继续做不可思议的事情。 他改变了世界和竞争对手的心态。这些都是不可能的。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/840784736"}