Derlin
2021-11-03
Like pla
5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的5件事</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":841514871,"tweetId":"841514871","gmtCreate":1635925110287,"gmtModify":1635928745383,"author":{"id":3555938823736400,"idStr":"3555938823736400","authorId":3555938823736400,"authorIdStr":"3555938823736400","name":"Derlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a371f3d4269b1475b05c66bce026d0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pla</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pla</p></body></html>","text":"Like pla","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841514871","repostId":1105545673,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105545673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635911832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105545673?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105545673","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been writte","content":"<p>The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.</p><p><blockquote>关于周三美联储政策会议的头条新闻已经写好了。正如他们所说，细节决定成败。</blockquote></p><p> On the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen表示，从可能的消息来看，美联储将于周三宣布本月晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模已成“定局”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，缩减债券购买计划的速度可能为每月150亿美元。这意味着，目前每月1200亿美元的资产购买步伐将在明年年中彻底结束。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储周三结束为期两天的会议时，经济学家和投资者还将关注什么。美联储将于下午2点发布声明。东部和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。东部。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Transitory inflation</h4> A lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.</p><p><blockquote><h4>暂时性通货膨胀</h4>鲍威尔认为通胀是“暂时的”，但这并不意味着通胀会很快逆转，这已经写了很多。相反，这意味着在合理的时间内，通胀将恢复到2%的目标。”SGH Macro Advisers首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)表示。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美联储9月份的声明称，“通胀上升，很大程度上反映了暂时性因素。”经济学家对于是否将其纳入周三发布的声明存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行美国经济主管米歇尔·迈耶认为，这一关键句子将被编辑，使其“部分”反映暂时性因素，或者添加一句有关通胀更加持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.</p><p><blockquote>道明证券首席美国宏观策略师吉姆·奥沙利文认为，美联储将坚持“很大程度上反映暂时性因素”的措辞。他表示，这意味着不会急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> The underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.</p><p><blockquote>麦凯·希尔兹(MacKay Shields)高级宏观经济学家史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)在一封电子邮件中表示，“暂时”预测的基础正开始“失去光泽”。他说，通货膨胀的基础看起来更加广泛，住房成本以及更广泛的商品和服务现在都出现了价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>美联储最喜欢的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数10月份以4.4%的年率上涨，为三十年来的最快速度。此外，工资出现了自20世纪90年代初以来最大的季度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Rate hikes</h4> Powell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.</p><p><blockquote><h4>加息</h4>鲍威尔可能会再次强调，缩减规模的决定独立于加息的决定。但巴克莱银行的加彭在一份报告中表示，市场不会太关注这些努力。</blockquote></p><p> Markets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>市场继续预计2022年将加息约两次25个基点，并看到美联储从结束资产购买迅速过渡到提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c920b4b538ee54a770dabde94f3a140b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，9月份，美联储在是否在近期加息的问题上存在平分秋色，许多美联储官员已表示，他们希望结束缩减规模，以防需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”</p><p><blockquote>多伦多BMO资本市场副首席经济学家迈克尔·格雷戈里(Michael Gregory)表示，他预计“我们仍然会留下这样的印象：明年晚些时候起飞的可能性远高于上次会议点阵图所描绘的50-50赔率。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Balance sheet</h4> In 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><h4>资产负债表</h4>2016年，一些经济学家认为美联储应该在加息之前开始实际缩表。美国银行证券利率策略师马克·卡巴纳表示，央行没有遵循这种做法，但这种争论再次浮出水面。包括圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）在内的一些美联储官员已表示愿意尽早采取行动缩减资产负债表，资产负债表已从疫情爆发前的4.4万亿美元升至8.6万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>卡巴纳表示，他的基本假设是，美联储将遵循2017-2019年上一个周期的做法，一旦基准利率高于1%，就会采取行动缩减资产负债表，他预计这将在2023年第四季度发生。</blockquote></p><p> But there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.</p><p><blockquote>但更早（即2023年初）缩减资产负债表的可能性越来越大，因为这将是一种更加被动的政策紧缩，让劳动力市场有更长的时间来恢复。他说。</blockquote></p><p> To shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.</p><p><blockquote>为了缩减资产负债表，美联储不必出售其持有的证券。它可以让它们成熟，而不是将收益进行再投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h4>Ethics concern</h4> Powell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.</p><p><blockquote><h4>伦理关注</h4>鲍威尔将被问及与美联储官员在疫情期间为其个人账户进行交易相关的道德问题。上个月，美联储宣布了限制高级官员交易的新规定。两位地区联储主席在2020年的交易行为受到批评后离职。一些进步民主党人质疑鲍威尔自己的一些投资决定，以及他的二号人物、副主席理查德·克拉里达的决定。加彭表示：“我们预计美联储主席将花时间解释新程序，并反驳美联储官员参与某种形式自我交易的看法。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Second term for Powell</h4> Powell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.</p><p><blockquote><h4>鲍威尔第二个任期</h4>鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期将于明年初结束，一些经济学家认为，只要总统乔·拜登不采取行动重新任命他，鲍威尔的手就被束缚住了。</blockquote></p><p> “He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”</p><p><blockquote>粮农组织经济学首席经济学家罗伯特·布鲁斯卡表示：“只要他的连任悬而未决，他就不可能开始成为（通胀问题）硬汉先生。”他补充说，美联储正面临来自进步人士的“疯狂压力”。“我认为这对目前的政策来说是一个非常复杂的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> At his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在9月份的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔拒绝就此事发表任何声明。“我想这句话是这样说的——我今天没有什么可以告诉你的。抱歉，我只是专注于我的工作，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.</p><p><blockquote>关于周三美联储政策会议的头条新闻已经写好了。正如他们所说，细节决定成败。</blockquote></p><p> On the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen表示，从可能的消息来看，美联储将于周三宣布本月晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模已成“定局”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，缩减债券购买计划的速度可能为每月150亿美元。这意味着，目前每月1200亿美元的资产购买步伐将在明年年中彻底结束。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储周三结束为期两天的会议时，经济学家和投资者还将关注什么。美联储将于下午2点发布声明。东部和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。东部。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Transitory inflation</h4> A lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.</p><p><blockquote><h4>暂时性通货膨胀</h4>鲍威尔认为通胀是“暂时的”，但这并不意味着通胀会很快逆转，这已经写了很多。相反，这意味着在合理的时间内，通胀将恢复到2%的目标。”SGH Macro Advisers首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)表示。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美联储9月份的声明称，“通胀上升，很大程度上反映了暂时性因素。”经济学家对于是否将其纳入周三发布的声明存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行美国经济主管米歇尔·迈耶认为，这一关键句子将被编辑，使其“部分”反映暂时性因素，或者添加一句有关通胀更加持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.</p><p><blockquote>道明证券首席美国宏观策略师吉姆·奥沙利文认为，美联储将坚持“很大程度上反映暂时性因素”的措辞。他表示，这意味着不会急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> The underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.</p><p><blockquote>麦凯·希尔兹(MacKay Shields)高级宏观经济学家史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)在一封电子邮件中表示，“暂时”预测的基础正开始“失去光泽”。他说，通货膨胀的基础看起来更加广泛，住房成本以及更广泛的商品和服务现在都出现了价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>美联储最喜欢的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数10月份以4.4%的年率上涨，为三十年来的最快速度。此外，工资出现了自20世纪90年代初以来最大的季度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Rate hikes</h4> Powell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.</p><p><blockquote><h4>加息</h4>鲍威尔可能会再次强调，缩减规模的决定独立于加息的决定。但巴克莱银行的加彭在一份报告中表示，市场不会太关注这些努力。</blockquote></p><p> Markets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>市场继续预计2022年将加息约两次25个基点，并看到美联储从结束资产购买迅速过渡到提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c920b4b538ee54a770dabde94f3a140b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，9月份，美联储在是否在近期加息的问题上存在平分秋色，许多美联储官员已表示，他们希望结束缩减规模，以防需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”</p><p><blockquote>多伦多BMO资本市场副首席经济学家迈克尔·格雷戈里(Michael Gregory)表示，他预计“我们仍然会留下这样的印象：明年晚些时候起飞的可能性远高于上次会议点阵图所描绘的50-50赔率。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Balance sheet</h4> In 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><h4>资产负债表</h4>2016年，一些经济学家认为美联储应该在加息之前开始实际缩表。美国银行证券利率策略师马克·卡巴纳表示，央行没有遵循这种做法，但这种争论再次浮出水面。包括圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）在内的一些美联储官员已表示愿意尽早采取行动缩减资产负债表，资产负债表已从疫情爆发前的4.4万亿美元升至8.6万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>卡巴纳表示，他的基本假设是，美联储将遵循2017-2019年上一个周期的做法，一旦基准利率高于1%，就会采取行动缩减资产负债表，他预计这将在2023年第四季度发生。</blockquote></p><p> But there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.</p><p><blockquote>但更早（即2023年初）缩减资产负债表的可能性越来越大，因为这将是一种更加被动的政策紧缩，让劳动力市场有更长的时间来恢复。他说。</blockquote></p><p> To shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.</p><p><blockquote>为了缩减资产负债表，美联储不必出售其持有的证券。它可以让它们成熟，而不是将收益进行再投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h4>Ethics concern</h4> Powell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.</p><p><blockquote><h4>伦理关注</h4>鲍威尔将被问及与美联储官员在疫情期间为其个人账户进行交易相关的道德问题。上个月，美联储宣布了限制高级官员交易的新规定。两位地区联储主席在2020年的交易行为受到批评后离职。一些进步民主党人质疑鲍威尔自己的一些投资决定，以及他的二号人物、副主席理查德·克拉里达的决定。加彭表示：“我们预计美联储主席将花时间解释新程序，并反驳美联储官员参与某种形式自我交易的看法。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Second term for Powell</h4> Powell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.</p><p><blockquote><h4>鲍威尔第二个任期</h4>鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期将于明年初结束，一些经济学家认为，只要总统乔·拜登不采取行动重新任命他，鲍威尔的手就被束缚住了。</blockquote></p><p> “He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”</p><p><blockquote>粮农组织经济学首席经济学家罗伯特·布鲁斯卡表示：“只要他的连任悬而未决，他就不可能开始成为（通胀问题）硬汉先生。”他补充说，美联储正面临来自进步人士的“疯狂压力”。“我认为这对目前的政策来说是一个非常复杂的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> At his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在9月份的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔拒绝就此事发表任何声明。“我想这句话是这样说的——我今天没有什么可以告诉你的。抱歉，我只是专注于我的工作，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-for-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11635878287?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-for-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11635878287?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105545673","content_text":"The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.\nOn the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.\nThe Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.\nHere’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.\nTransitory inflation\nA lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.\nThe Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.\nMichelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.\nJim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.\nThe underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.\nThe Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.\nRate hikes\nPowell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.\nMarkets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.\n\nIn September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.\nMichael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”\nBalance sheet\nIn 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.\nCabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.\nBut there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.\nTo shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.\nEthics concern\nPowell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.\nSecond term for Powell\nPowell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.\n“He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”\nAt his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841514871"}
精彩评论