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2021-11-09
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Tencent Q3 preview: Where next for the Tencent share price?<blockquote>腾讯控股第三季度预览:腾讯控股股价下一步走向何方?</blockquote>
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We explain what to expect and consider how Tencent shares could react.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国的监管打击,腾讯控股股价今年遭受重创,但这将如何影响其第三季度盈利?我们解释了预期的情况并考虑了腾讯控股股票的反应。</blockquote></p><p> When will Tencent release Q3 earnings?</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股何时发布第三季度财报?</blockquote></p><p> Tencent is scheduled to publish third quarter earnings on Wednesday November 10.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股定于11月10日星期三发布第三季度财报。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Q3 earnings preview: what to expect from the results</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股第三季度收益预览:对结果有何期待</blockquote></p><p> Tencent shares have plunged over 39% since hitting all-time highs in February, driven by the evolving regulatory clampdown on large, digitally-driven businesses in China. The majority of Tencent’s sprawling empire is set to be impacted as a result, from gaming and video content to ecommerce and online advertising.</p><p><blockquote>自2月份触及历史高点以来,腾讯控股股价已暴跌超过39%,原因是中国监管机构对大型数字化驱动企业的打击力度不断加大。腾讯控股庞大帝国的大部分都将因此受到影响,从游戏和视频内容到电子商务和在线广告。</blockquote></p><p> The situation remains volatile and is still evolving, with the crackdown likely to drag on considering it is part of a five-year plan to tighten rules and improve the economy. This is widely expected to lead to slower revenue growth, tighter margins and increased costs for Tencent as it tries to navigate the uncertain outlook.</p><p><blockquote>局势仍然不稳定且仍在演变,考虑到这是收紧规则和改善经济的五年计划的一部分,打压可能会拖延。人们普遍预计,在腾讯控股试图应对不确定的前景时,这将导致收入增长放缓、利润率收紧和成本增加。</blockquote></p><p> But, for now, Tencent is expected to keep powering ahead. Wall Street expects Tencent to report revenue of RMB146.0 billion in the third quarter compared to RMB125.5 million last year, marking a new quarterly record. Meanwhile, analysts forecast adjusted operating profit will rise to RMB42.0 billion from RMB38.1 billion the year before, with diluted EPS at the bottom-line expected to drop to RMB3.06 from RMB3.96. EPS is also forecast to come under pressure and fall compared to what has been delivered in the first two quarters of 2021 (with diluted EPS of RMB4.92 in Q1 and RMB4.39 in Q2).</p><p><blockquote>但是,就目前而言,腾讯控股预计将继续向前发展。华尔街预计腾讯控股第三季度营收将达到人民币1,460亿元,而去年同期为人民币1.255亿元,创下季度新纪录。与此同时,分析师预测调整后营业利润将从上年的人民币381亿元增至人民币420亿元,摊薄后每股收益预计将从人民币3.96元降至人民币3.06元。与2021年前两个季度相比,每股收益预计也将面临压力并下降(第一季度摊薄后每股收益为人民币4.92元,第二季度为人民币4.39元)。</blockquote></p><p> Diving deeper into the forecasts, here are revenue expectations for Tencent’s key divisions with comparisons from the year before:</p><p><blockquote>深入了解预测,以下是腾讯控股主要部门的收入预期以及与上一年的比较:</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Value-added services</b>: RMB76.0 billion versus RMB69.8 billion</li> <li><b>Gaming</b>: RMB44.8 billion versus RMB41.4 billion</li> <li><b>Online advertising</b>: RMB24.7 billion versus RMB21.4 billion</li> <li><b>Fintech and business services</b>: RMB44.4 billion versus RMB33.3 billion</li> </ul> Attention is also paid to Tencent’s user growth on its social media platforms Weixin, WeChat and QQ. Below are expectations for user numbers (Monthly Active Users, or MAU) compared to the year before:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>增值服务</b>:人民币760亿元对人民币698亿元</li><li><b>游戏</b>:人民币448亿元对人民币414亿元</li><li><b>网络广告</b>:人民币247亿元对人民币214亿元</li><li><b>金融科技和商业服务</b>:人民币444亿元对人民币333亿元</li></ul>腾讯控股在其社交媒体平台微信、微信和QQ上的用户增长也受到关注。以下是与上一年相比的用户数量(月活跃用户或MAU)的预期:</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>MAU of Weixin and WeChat</b>: 1,255.9 million versus 1,212.8 million</li> <li><b>Mobile MAU of QQ</b>: 588.1 million versus 617.4 million</li> <li><b>Fee-based VAS registered subscriptions</b>: 236.0 million versus 213.4 million</li> </ul> Eyes will also be on Tencent’s free cashflow after this plunged 39% year-on-year in the second quarter, when the company also swung to a net debt position from having a net cash position in the first. Analysts believe Tencent’s cashflow is sizeable enough to avoid any serious concerns, even if this is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term. Plus, its sizeable investment portfolio, worth some RMB1,446.0 billion at the end of the second quarter, can provide significant headroom if it was needed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>微信及微信MAU</b>:12.559亿vs.12.128亿</li><li><b>QQ的移动MAU</b>:5.881亿vs 6.174亿</li><li><b>收费增值服务注册订阅</b>:2.360亿vs 2.134亿</li></ul>人们还将关注腾讯控股的自由现金流,此前该公司第二季度的自由现金流同比暴跌39%,当时该公司也从第一季度的净现金头寸转为净债务头寸。分析师认为,腾讯控股的现金流足够大,足以避免任何严重担忧,即使预计短期内仍将面临压力。此外,其庞大的投资组合(截至第二季度末价值约人民币14,460亿元)可以在需要时提供巨大的空间。</blockquote></p><p> The regulatory risk attached to Tencent has increased markedly this year, evidenced by the significant fall in the share price this year despite the fact its financial performance has continued to improve. Still, brokers remain bullish on Tencent’s long-term prospects and believe the selloff in 2021 has been overdone, with an average target price of HKD636.46 – implying there is over 37% potential upside from the current share price of HKD464.0.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股的监管风险今年明显增加,尽管其财务业绩持续改善,但今年股价大幅下跌就证明了这一点。尽管如此,券商仍然看好腾讯控股的长期前景,并认为2021年的抛售过度,平均目标价为636.46港元,这意味着较当前464.0港元的股价有超过37%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Where next for the Tencent share price?</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股股价下一步将走向何方?</blockquote></p><p> After hitting an all-time high in mid-February, the Tencent share price has been trending lower. More recently the price has been in consolidation mode, with HKD$511 capping gains and HKD$413 limiting losses.</p><p><blockquote>在2月中旬创下历史新高后,腾讯控股股价一直呈走低趋势。最近,价格一直处于盘整模式,511港元限制涨幅,413港元限制跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The RSI is mildly bearish and the price trades below its 50 sma. Sellers might look for a break-out trade below HKD$413 to target the post pandemic low of HKD327.</p><p><blockquote>RSI温和看跌,价格低于50 sma。卖家可能会寻找低于413港元的突破交易,目标是大流行后低点327港元。</blockquote></p><p> Buyers may wait for a move over HKD$511 to expose the 200 sma at HKD$575 and the late June high of HKD$605.</p><p><blockquote>买家可能会等待突破511港元,以暴露200移动平均线575港元和6月底高点605港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1632450706252","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Q3 preview: Where next for the Tencent share price?<blockquote>腾讯控股第三季度预览:腾讯控股股价下一步走向何方?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Q3 preview: Where next for the Tencent share price?<blockquote>腾讯控股第三季度预览:腾讯控股股价下一步走向何方?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">City Index</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-09 13:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tencent shares have suffered heavily this year as a result of the regulatory crackdown in China, but how will this impact its third quarter earnings? We explain what to expect and consider how Tencent shares could react.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国的监管打击,腾讯控股股价今年遭受重创,但这将如何影响其第三季度盈利?我们解释了预期的情况并考虑了腾讯控股股票的反应。</blockquote></p><p> When will Tencent release Q3 earnings?</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股何时发布第三季度财报?</blockquote></p><p> Tencent is scheduled to publish third quarter earnings on Wednesday November 10.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股定于11月10日星期三发布第三季度财报。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Q3 earnings preview: what to expect from the results</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股第三季度收益预览:对结果有何期待</blockquote></p><p> Tencent shares have plunged over 39% since hitting all-time highs in February, driven by the evolving regulatory clampdown on large, digitally-driven businesses in China. The majority of Tencent’s sprawling empire is set to be impacted as a result, from gaming and video content to ecommerce and online advertising.</p><p><blockquote>自2月份触及历史高点以来,腾讯控股股价已暴跌超过39%,原因是中国监管机构对大型数字化驱动企业的打击力度不断加大。腾讯控股庞大帝国的大部分都将因此受到影响,从游戏和视频内容到电子商务和在线广告。</blockquote></p><p> The situation remains volatile and is still evolving, with the crackdown likely to drag on considering it is part of a five-year plan to tighten rules and improve the economy. This is widely expected to lead to slower revenue growth, tighter margins and increased costs for Tencent as it tries to navigate the uncertain outlook.</p><p><blockquote>局势仍然不稳定且仍在演变,考虑到这是收紧规则和改善经济的五年计划的一部分,打压可能会拖延。人们普遍预计,在腾讯控股试图应对不确定的前景时,这将导致收入增长放缓、利润率收紧和成本增加。</blockquote></p><p> But, for now, Tencent is expected to keep powering ahead. Wall Street expects Tencent to report revenue of RMB146.0 billion in the third quarter compared to RMB125.5 million last year, marking a new quarterly record. Meanwhile, analysts forecast adjusted operating profit will rise to RMB42.0 billion from RMB38.1 billion the year before, with diluted EPS at the bottom-line expected to drop to RMB3.06 from RMB3.96. EPS is also forecast to come under pressure and fall compared to what has been delivered in the first two quarters of 2021 (with diluted EPS of RMB4.92 in Q1 and RMB4.39 in Q2).</p><p><blockquote>但是,就目前而言,腾讯控股预计将继续向前发展。华尔街预计腾讯控股第三季度营收将达到人民币1,460亿元,而去年同期为人民币1.255亿元,创下季度新纪录。与此同时,分析师预测调整后营业利润将从上年的人民币381亿元增至人民币420亿元,摊薄后每股收益预计将从人民币3.96元降至人民币3.06元。与2021年前两个季度相比,每股收益预计也将面临压力并下降(第一季度摊薄后每股收益为人民币4.92元,第二季度为人民币4.39元)。</blockquote></p><p> Diving deeper into the forecasts, here are revenue expectations for Tencent’s key divisions with comparisons from the year before:</p><p><blockquote>深入了解预测,以下是腾讯控股主要部门的收入预期以及与上一年的比较:</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Value-added services</b>: RMB76.0 billion versus RMB69.8 billion</li> <li><b>Gaming</b>: RMB44.8 billion versus RMB41.4 billion</li> <li><b>Online advertising</b>: RMB24.7 billion versus RMB21.4 billion</li> <li><b>Fintech and business services</b>: RMB44.4 billion versus RMB33.3 billion</li> </ul> Attention is also paid to Tencent’s user growth on its social media platforms Weixin, WeChat and QQ. Below are expectations for user numbers (Monthly Active Users, or MAU) compared to the year before:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>增值服务</b>:人民币760亿元对人民币698亿元</li><li><b>游戏</b>:人民币448亿元对人民币414亿元</li><li><b>网络广告</b>:人民币247亿元对人民币214亿元</li><li><b>金融科技和商业服务</b>:人民币444亿元对人民币333亿元</li></ul>腾讯控股在其社交媒体平台微信、微信和QQ上的用户增长也受到关注。以下是与上一年相比的用户数量(月活跃用户或MAU)的预期:</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>MAU of Weixin and WeChat</b>: 1,255.9 million versus 1,212.8 million</li> <li><b>Mobile MAU of QQ</b>: 588.1 million versus 617.4 million</li> <li><b>Fee-based VAS registered subscriptions</b>: 236.0 million versus 213.4 million</li> </ul> Eyes will also be on Tencent’s free cashflow after this plunged 39% year-on-year in the second quarter, when the company also swung to a net debt position from having a net cash position in the first. Analysts believe Tencent’s cashflow is sizeable enough to avoid any serious concerns, even if this is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term. Plus, its sizeable investment portfolio, worth some RMB1,446.0 billion at the end of the second quarter, can provide significant headroom if it was needed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>微信及微信MAU</b>:12.559亿vs.12.128亿</li><li><b>QQ的移动MAU</b>:5.881亿vs 6.174亿</li><li><b>收费增值服务注册订阅</b>:2.360亿vs 2.134亿</li></ul>人们还将关注腾讯控股的自由现金流,此前该公司第二季度的自由现金流同比暴跌39%,当时该公司也从第一季度的净现金头寸转为净债务头寸。分析师认为,腾讯控股的现金流足够大,足以避免任何严重担忧,即使预计短期内仍将面临压力。此外,其庞大的投资组合(截至第二季度末价值约人民币14,460亿元)可以在需要时提供巨大的空间。</blockquote></p><p> The regulatory risk attached to Tencent has increased markedly this year, evidenced by the significant fall in the share price this year despite the fact its financial performance has continued to improve. Still, brokers remain bullish on Tencent’s long-term prospects and believe the selloff in 2021 has been overdone, with an average target price of HKD636.46 – implying there is over 37% potential upside from the current share price of HKD464.0.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股的监管风险今年明显增加,尽管其财务业绩持续改善,但今年股价大幅下跌就证明了这一点。尽管如此,券商仍然看好腾讯控股的长期前景,并认为2021年的抛售过度,平均目标价为636.46港元,这意味着较当前464.0港元的股价有超过37%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Where next for the Tencent share price?</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股股价下一步将走向何方?</blockquote></p><p> After hitting an all-time high in mid-February, the Tencent share price has been trending lower. More recently the price has been in consolidation mode, with HKD$511 capping gains and HKD$413 limiting losses.</p><p><blockquote>在2月中旬创下历史新高后,腾讯控股股价一直呈走低趋势。最近,价格一直处于盘整模式,511港元限制涨幅,413港元限制跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The RSI is mildly bearish and the price trades below its 50 sma. Sellers might look for a break-out trade below HKD$413 to target the post pandemic low of HKD327.</p><p><blockquote>RSI温和看跌,价格低于50 sma。卖家可能会寻找低于413港元的突破交易,目标是大流行后低点327港元。</blockquote></p><p> Buyers may wait for a move over HKD$511 to expose the 200 sma at HKD$575 and the late June high of HKD$605.</p><p><blockquote>买家可能会等待突破511港元,以暴露200移动平均线575港元和6月底高点605港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/where-next-for-the-tencent-share-price-ahead-of-its-q3-earnings/\">City Index</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/where-next-for-the-tencent-share-price-ahead-of-its-q3-earnings/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197651775","content_text":"Tencent shares have suffered heavily this year as a result of the regulatory crackdown in China, but how will this impact its third quarter earnings? We explain what to expect and consider how Tencent shares could react.\nWhen will Tencent release Q3 earnings?\nTencent is scheduled to publish third quarter earnings on Wednesday November 10.\nTencent Q3 earnings preview: what to expect from the results\nTencent shares have plunged over 39% since hitting all-time highs in February, driven by the evolving regulatory clampdown on large, digitally-driven businesses in China. The majority of Tencent’s sprawling empire is set to be impacted as a result, from gaming and video content to ecommerce and online advertising.\nThe situation remains volatile and is still evolving, with the crackdown likely to drag on considering it is part of a five-year plan to tighten rules and improve the economy. This is widely expected to lead to slower revenue growth, tighter margins and increased costs for Tencent as it tries to navigate the uncertain outlook.\nBut, for now, Tencent is expected to keep powering ahead. Wall Street expects Tencent to report revenue of RMB146.0 billion in the third quarter compared to RMB125.5 million last year, marking a new quarterly record. Meanwhile, analysts forecast adjusted operating profit will rise to RMB42.0 billion from RMB38.1 billion the year before, with diluted EPS at the bottom-line expected to drop to RMB3.06 from RMB3.96. EPS is also forecast to come under pressure and fall compared to what has been delivered in the first two quarters of 2021 (with diluted EPS of RMB4.92 in Q1 and RMB4.39 in Q2).\nDiving deeper into the forecasts, here are revenue expectations for Tencent’s key divisions with comparisons from the year before:\n\nValue-added services: RMB76.0 billion versus RMB69.8 billion\nGaming: RMB44.8 billion versus RMB41.4 billion\nOnline advertising: RMB24.7 billion versus RMB21.4 billion\nFintech and business services: RMB44.4 billion versus RMB33.3 billion\n\nAttention is also paid to Tencent’s user growth on its social media platforms Weixin, WeChat and QQ. Below are expectations for user numbers (Monthly Active Users, or MAU) compared to the year before:\n\nMAU of Weixin and WeChat: 1,255.9 million versus 1,212.8 million\nMobile MAU of QQ: 588.1 million versus 617.4 million\nFee-based VAS registered subscriptions: 236.0 million versus 213.4 million\n\nEyes will also be on Tencent’s free cashflow after this plunged 39% year-on-year in the second quarter, when the company also swung to a net debt position from having a net cash position in the first. Analysts believe Tencent’s cashflow is sizeable enough to avoid any serious concerns, even if this is expected to remain under pressure in the near-term. Plus, its sizeable investment portfolio, worth some RMB1,446.0 billion at the end of the second quarter, can provide significant headroom if it was needed.\nThe regulatory risk attached to Tencent has increased markedly this year, evidenced by the significant fall in the share price this year despite the fact its financial performance has continued to improve. Still, brokers remain bullish on Tencent’s long-term prospects and believe the selloff in 2021 has been overdone, with an average target price of HKD636.46 – implying there is over 37% potential upside from the current share price of HKD464.0.\nWhere next for the Tencent share price?\nAfter hitting an all-time high in mid-February, the Tencent share price has been trending lower. More recently the price has been in consolidation mode, with HKD$511 capping gains and HKD$413 limiting losses.\nThe RSI is mildly bearish and the price trades below its 50 sma. Sellers might look for a break-out trade below HKD$413 to target the post pandemic low of HKD327.\nBuyers may wait for a move over HKD$511 to expose the 200 sma at HKD$575 and the late June high of HKD$605.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/844272530"}
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