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2021-11-09
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Why markets are like a duck: ‘calm above the surface, but furious churning below’<blockquote>为什么市场就像一只鸭子：“表面平静，但下面却剧烈搅动”</blockquote>
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The analysts, led by Andrew Sheets, observed in a Friday note that realized, one-month equity volatility across the U.S., Europe and emerging markets has fallen to the 25th percentile of the last 15 years.</p><p><blockquote>随着全球股市飙升至历史新高，股市波动性的持续下降反映了这种平静。以安德鲁·希茨（Andrew Sheets）为首的分析师在周五的一份报告中指出，美国、欧洲和新兴市场的一个月股市波动率已降至过去15年的第25%。</blockquote></p><p> But below the surface, “volatility has jumped” for other assets, they wrote, unveiling a new cross-asset gauge, dubbed the Composite Sigma Indicator, which stands at its highest reading in five years with the exception of the COVID-induced turmoil of the second quarter of 2020 (see chart below). That reflects a rising number of extreme one-day moves, defined as a standard deviation of larger than 1.5.</p><p><blockquote>但他们写道，在表面之下，其他资产的“波动性已经跃升”，并推出了一种新的跨资产指标，称为综合西格玛指标，该指标处于五年来的最高读数，不包括新冠疫情引发的动荡2020年第二季度（见下图）。这反映出极端单日波动的数量不断增加，定义为标准差大于1.5。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a225428109bc24bddb8dbd14801b7065\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who has paid attention to the U.S. and global government bond markets in recent weeks probably won’t be surprised to learn that rates markets are at the heart of those moves. Indeed, the Composite Sigma Indicator has been driven by extreme moves in yield curves; inflation breakevens, which measure the difference between inflation-protected and nominal debt of the same maturity; and 2-year rates, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>任何最近几周关注美国和全球政府债券市场的人可能都不会惊讶地发现利率市场是这些举措的核心。事实上，综合西格玛指标是由收益率曲线的极端波动驱动的；通胀盈亏平衡，衡量相同期限的通胀保值债务和名义债务之间的差异；分析师表示，和2年期利率。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term government bond yields, including those on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, began a sharp rise in September as investors began to pencil in a more aggressive stance by global central banks in response to inflation that has proven more persistent than expected. The gap between short- and long-dated yields narrowed significantly, a yield-curve phenomenon known as flattening.</p><p><blockquote>包括2年期美国国债在内的短期政府债券收益率在9月份开始大幅上升，因为投资者开始预测全球央行将采取更激进的立场，以应对事实证明比预期更持久的通胀。短期和长期收益率之间的差距显着缩小，这种收益率曲线现象被称为平坦化。</blockquote></p><p> The speed of the move has been interpreted by some investors as the potential harbinger of a “policy mistake,”in which central banks spark an economic downturn by tightening too aggressively. The moves also wrong-footed investors, leaving some high-profile hedge funds with large October losses,according to The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将此举的速度解读为“政策错误”的潜在先兆，即央行过于激进的紧缩政策引发经济衰退。据《华尔街日报》报道，这些举措也让投资者措手不及，导致一些知名对冲基金在10月份遭受巨额损失。</blockquote></p><p> Two-year rates in Poland, meanwhile, have risen by 85 basis points, or 0.85 percentage point, a 12.2 sigma deviation on the distribution of weekly moves for the rate, the analysts noted. The U.K. saw “extreme dislocations” as short-term rates rose and long-term rates fell, while in commodities markets, iron-ore prices are down 20%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，与此同时，波兰两年期利率上涨了85个基点，即0.85个百分点，与利率每周变动分布相差12.2西格玛。随着短期利率上升和长期利率下降，英国出现了“极端混乱”，而在大宗商品市场，铁矿石价格下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> “Rates are the sole driver of this move, while other assets are unusually calm. Risk management in global rates feels very different from equities or FX heading into year-end,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>分析师写道：“利率是这一走势的唯一驱动力，而其他资产则异常平静。全球利率的风险管理与年底前的股票或外汇有很大不同。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks stumbled in September, but major indexes roared back in October and continue to press to all-time highs this month. The S&P 500 was up 26.9% year to date through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied 21.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 23.9%.</p><p><blockquote>股市在9月份下跌，但主要股指在10月份飙升，并在本月继续逼近历史高点。截至周五，标普500今年迄今已上涨26.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨21.2%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨23.9%。</blockquote></p><p> So what does it all mean? “It suggests that the liquidity environment is already shifting, even if not readily apparent in the S&P 500,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>那么这一切意味着什么呢？他们表示：“这表明流动性环境已经在发生变化，即使在标普500上还不明显。”</blockquote></p><p> It also means that risk premium matters (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着风险溢价很重要（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8a9c15b74f8c569f39f375770bdc7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “Many of the markets with the largest recent moves were those priced for the calmest environments. As idiosyncratic risk rises, and risk management becomes more challenging, we see opportunities in high versus low risk premium markets,” they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“最近波动最大的许多市场都是那些定价为最平静环境的市场。随着特殊风险的上升，风险管理变得更具挑战性，我们在高风险和低风险溢价市场中看到了机会。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why markets are like a duck: ‘calm above the surface, but furious churning below’<blockquote>为什么市场就像一只鸭子：“表面平静，但下面却剧烈搅动”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy markets are like a duck: ‘calm above the surface, but furious churning below’<blockquote>为什么市场就像一只鸭子：“表面平静，但下面却剧烈搅动”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-09 18:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Mario Draghi famously likened the euro to a bumblebee; Morgan Stanley analysts say global financial markets remind them of a duck floating on a pond: “calm above the surface, but furious churning below.”</p><p><blockquote>马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)将欧元比作一只大黄蜂。摩根士丹利分析师表示，全球金融市场让他们想起了一只漂浮在池塘上的鸭子：“表面上平静，但下面却剧烈翻腾。”</blockquote></p><p> The calm is reflected in a continued drop in realized, or actual, stock-market volatility as global equities soar to all-time highs. The analysts, led by Andrew Sheets, observed in a Friday note that realized, one-month equity volatility across the U.S., Europe and emerging markets has fallen to the 25th percentile of the last 15 years.</p><p><blockquote>随着全球股市飙升至历史新高，股市波动性的持续下降反映了这种平静。以安德鲁·希茨（Andrew Sheets）为首的分析师在周五的一份报告中指出，美国、欧洲和新兴市场的一个月股市波动率已降至过去15年的第25%。</blockquote></p><p> But below the surface, “volatility has jumped” for other assets, they wrote, unveiling a new cross-asset gauge, dubbed the Composite Sigma Indicator, which stands at its highest reading in five years with the exception of the COVID-induced turmoil of the second quarter of 2020 (see chart below). That reflects a rising number of extreme one-day moves, defined as a standard deviation of larger than 1.5.</p><p><blockquote>但他们写道，在表面之下，其他资产的“波动性已经跃升”，并推出了一种新的跨资产指标，称为综合西格玛指标，该指标处于五年来的最高读数，不包括新冠疫情引发的动荡2020年第二季度（见下图）。这反映出极端单日波动的数量不断增加，定义为标准差大于1.5。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a225428109bc24bddb8dbd14801b7065\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who has paid attention to the U.S. and global government bond markets in recent weeks probably won’t be surprised to learn that rates markets are at the heart of those moves. Indeed, the Composite Sigma Indicator has been driven by extreme moves in yield curves; inflation breakevens, which measure the difference between inflation-protected and nominal debt of the same maturity; and 2-year rates, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>任何最近几周关注美国和全球政府债券市场的人可能都不会惊讶地发现利率市场是这些举措的核心。事实上，综合西格玛指标是由收益率曲线的极端波动驱动的；通胀盈亏平衡，衡量相同期限的通胀保值债务和名义债务之间的差异；分析师表示，和2年期利率。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term government bond yields, including those on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, began a sharp rise in September as investors began to pencil in a more aggressive stance by global central banks in response to inflation that has proven more persistent than expected. The gap between short- and long-dated yields narrowed significantly, a yield-curve phenomenon known as flattening.</p><p><blockquote>包括2年期美国国债在内的短期政府债券收益率在9月份开始大幅上升，因为投资者开始预测全球央行将采取更激进的立场，以应对事实证明比预期更持久的通胀。短期和长期收益率之间的差距显着缩小，这种收益率曲线现象被称为平坦化。</blockquote></p><p> The speed of the move has been interpreted by some investors as the potential harbinger of a “policy mistake,”in which central banks spark an economic downturn by tightening too aggressively. The moves also wrong-footed investors, leaving some high-profile hedge funds with large October losses,according to The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将此举的速度解读为“政策错误”的潜在先兆，即央行过于激进的紧缩政策引发经济衰退。据《华尔街日报》报道，这些举措也让投资者措手不及，导致一些知名对冲基金在10月份遭受巨额损失。</blockquote></p><p> Two-year rates in Poland, meanwhile, have risen by 85 basis points, or 0.85 percentage point, a 12.2 sigma deviation on the distribution of weekly moves for the rate, the analysts noted. The U.K. saw “extreme dislocations” as short-term rates rose and long-term rates fell, while in commodities markets, iron-ore prices are down 20%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，与此同时，波兰两年期利率上涨了85个基点，即0.85个百分点，与利率每周变动分布相差12.2西格玛。随着短期利率上升和长期利率下降，英国出现了“极端混乱”，而在大宗商品市场，铁矿石价格下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> “Rates are the sole driver of this move, while other assets are unusually calm. Risk management in global rates feels very different from equities or FX heading into year-end,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>分析师写道：“利率是这一走势的唯一驱动力，而其他资产则异常平静。全球利率的风险管理与年底前的股票或外汇有很大不同。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks stumbled in September, but major indexes roared back in October and continue to press to all-time highs this month. The S&P 500 was up 26.9% year to date through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied 21.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 23.9%.</p><p><blockquote>股市在9月份下跌，但主要股指在10月份飙升，并在本月继续逼近历史高点。截至周五，标普500今年迄今已上涨26.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨21.2%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨23.9%。</blockquote></p><p> So what does it all mean? “It suggests that the liquidity environment is already shifting, even if not readily apparent in the S&P 500,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>那么这一切意味着什么呢？他们表示：“这表明流动性环境已经在发生变化，即使在标普500上还不明显。”</blockquote></p><p> It also means that risk premium matters (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着风险溢价很重要（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8a9c15b74f8c569f39f375770bdc7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “Many of the markets with the largest recent moves were those priced for the calmest environments. As idiosyncratic risk rises, and risk management becomes more challenging, we see opportunities in high versus low risk premium markets,” they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“最近波动最大的许多市场都是那些定价为最平静环境的市场。随着特殊风险的上升，风险管理变得更具挑战性，我们在高风险和低风险溢价市场中看到了机会。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-are-like-a-duck-calm-above-the-surface-but-furious-churning-below-11636395875?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-are-like-a-duck-calm-above-the-surface-but-furious-churning-below-11636395875?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1164632864","content_text":"Mario Draghi famously likened the euro to a bumblebee; Morgan Stanley analysts say global financial markets remind them of a duck floating on a pond: “calm above the surface, but furious churning below.”\nThe calm is reflected in a continued drop in realized, or actual, stock-market volatility as global equities soar to all-time highs. The analysts, led by Andrew Sheets, observed in a Friday note that realized, one-month equity volatility across the U.S., Europe and emerging markets has fallen to the 25th percentile of the last 15 years.\nBut below the surface, “volatility has jumped” for other assets, they wrote, unveiling a new cross-asset gauge, dubbed the Composite Sigma Indicator, which stands at its highest reading in five years with the exception of the COVID-induced turmoil of the second quarter of 2020 (see chart below). That reflects a rising number of extreme one-day moves, defined as a standard deviation of larger than 1.5.\nMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH\nAnyone who has paid attention to the U.S. and global government bond markets in recent weeks probably won’t be surprised to learn that rates markets are at the heart of those moves. Indeed, the Composite Sigma Indicator has been driven by extreme moves in yield curves; inflation breakevens, which measure the difference between inflation-protected and nominal debt of the same maturity; and 2-year rates, the analysts said.\nShort-term government bond yields, including those on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, began a sharp rise in September as investors began to pencil in a more aggressive stance by global central banks in response to inflation that has proven more persistent than expected. The gap between short- and long-dated yields narrowed significantly, a yield-curve phenomenon known as flattening.\nThe speed of the move has been interpreted by some investors as the potential harbinger of a “policy mistake,”in which central banks spark an economic downturn by tightening too aggressively. The moves also wrong-footed investors, leaving some high-profile hedge funds with large October losses,according to The Wall Street Journal.\nTwo-year rates in Poland, meanwhile, have risen by 85 basis points, or 0.85 percentage point, a 12.2 sigma deviation on the distribution of weekly moves for the rate, the analysts noted. The U.K. saw “extreme dislocations” as short-term rates rose and long-term rates fell, while in commodities markets, iron-ore prices are down 20%.\n“Rates are the sole driver of this move, while other assets are unusually calm. Risk management in global rates feels very different from equities or FX heading into year-end,” the analysts wrote.\nStocks stumbled in September, but major indexes roared back in October and continue to press to all-time highs this month. The S&P 500 was up 26.9% year to date through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied 21.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 23.9%.\nSo what does it all mean? “It suggests that the liquidity environment is already shifting, even if not readily apparent in the S&P 500,” they said.\nIt also means that risk premium matters (see chart below).\nMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH\n“Many of the markets with the largest recent moves were those priced for the calmest environments. As idiosyncratic risk rises, and risk management becomes more challenging, we see opportunities in high versus low risk premium markets,” they wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2252,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/844442582"}
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