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2021-11-08

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Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth<blockquote>观点：华尔街会告诉你股市在11月份大放异彩，但这是赤裸裸的事实</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":845535083,"tweetId":"845535083","gmtCreate":1636349396090,"gmtModify":1636349396298,"author":{"id":4092924086715630,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorId":4092924086715630,"authorIdStr":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Great ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Great ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845535083","repostId":1156505839,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156505839","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636344323,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156505839?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-08 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth<blockquote>观点：华尔街会告诉你股市在11月份大放异彩，但这是赤裸裸的事实</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156505839","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be ex","content":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.<blockquote>11月对于道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA来说可能是一个好月份，+0.56%，预计将上涨0.6%，即约220点。</blockquote> Such a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.<blockquote>这样的涨幅将使美国股市领头羊达到36,040点左右，而10月份收盘时为35,820点。你希望得到更多吗？毕竟，道琼斯指数在10月份上涨了近6%。</blockquote> You shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.<blockquote>你不应该感到惊讶。道琼斯指数本月的预期涨幅与日历上每隔一个月的涨幅相同。11月没有理由比历史平均水平更好或更差。</blockquote> It’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.<blockquote>指出这一点很重要，以对抗华尔街那些挖掘历史数据寻找“神秘”季节性模式的人。我们能从他们的努力中学到的唯一真正的投资教训是，如果你折磨数据足够长时间和努力，你几乎可以让它说出任何东西。</blockquote> Consider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”<blockquote>想想华尔街一家大公司的首席投资官上周在给客户的电子邮件中所说的话：“从历史上看，11月是相当强劲的。事实上，自1950年以来，以及过去10年，它是一年中最好的月份，而在过去20年和选举后的一年中，它排名第二。11月是一年中最好的月份，但它似乎没有你想象的那么多爱。我们都认为12月是最好的月份，但11月实际上更好，而且很少大张旗鼓。”</blockquote> This raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?<blockquote>这引发了几个危险信号。为什么选择1950年以来的时期，而不是1960年或1940年？为什么只关注过去10年或20年，而不是过去13年、23年或27年？</blockquote> Unless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.<blockquote>除非有令人信服的理论理由关注历史数据的子集，否则这样做表明有意的数据挖掘正在进行。</blockquote> The Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th&nbsp;for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.<blockquote>道琼斯指数为投资者提供自1896年5月创立以来的月度数据。在接下来的125年里，11月的平均回报率在所有年份中排名第五，如下图所示。11月略高于平均水平，但未达到统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平。事实上，它甚至没有接近。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a13b9bba8ec5e47cf1c0ed3172447f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> How about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th&nbsp;place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.<blockquote>11月是后总统选举年第二好的月份怎么样？同样，这仅适用于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>历史数据的子集。纵观道琼斯指数的整个历史，11月份在总统选举后年份的平均表现排名第六。也就是说，它在这类年份的业绩排名其实比整个样本中略差一些。</blockquote> I don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.<blockquote>我无意挑这位著名的华尔街首席信息官的毛病，这就是为什么我没有提到他的名字。他实际上有一个很好的伙伴。</blockquote> Playing the odds<blockquote>玩赔率</blockquote> There’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.<blockquote>除了缺乏统计意义之外，这种数据挖掘还有一个更根本的问题：在对季节性模式下注时，为了获得对你有利的历史赔率，你必须连续多次下注——至少几十次。因此，当押注于一年只出现一次的模式时，明智的押注会持续几十年。在任何一年，成功的几率都只是略高于抛硬币。</blockquote> In all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.<blockquote>例如，自1896年以来的所有11月，道琼斯指数有63%的时间上涨。即使假设未来会像过去一样，押注股市将在11月上涨的可能性也会略高于每三年中的一次。这风险太大，不足以证明把谨慎抛在脑后是合理的。</blockquote> Ideally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.<blockquote>理想情况下，从统计学的角度来看，你可以找到统计上显著的短期模式。这将允许您，即使持有期相对较短，也可以在这些模式上下注足够多次，以获得对您有利的赔率。</blockquote> This, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)<blockquote>例如，这就是Renaissance Technologies的Medallion基金取得巨大成功背后的秘密，该基金（即使扣除费用后）在1988年至2018年间以39.2%的年化回报率高达10.0%的令人难以置信的优势击败了标准普尔500SPX指数+0.37%。（该基金不向外部投资者开放。）</blockquote> Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.<blockquote>加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授布拉德·康奈尔(Brad Cornell)报告称，Medallion Fund任何单笔交易的成功率为50.75%，仅略高于50%。但当与高频交易相结合时，这些赔率足以产生高利润的策略。康奈尔写道，Medallion的“策略包括不断开设和回补数千个短期头寸，包括多头和空头……进行了数百万笔交易，[50.75%]百分比使公司赚取了数十亿美元”。</blockquote> Remember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.<blockquote>下次你读到所谓的股市季节性模式时，请记住这一点。即使这种模式在统计上很重要（这种情况很少见），从长远来看也不会对你有多大帮助。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth<blockquote>观点：华尔街会告诉你股市在11月份大放异彩，但这是赤裸裸的事实</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth<blockquote>观点：华尔街会告诉你股市在11月份大放异彩，但这是赤裸裸的事实</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarket Wacth2021-11-08 12:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNovember likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.<blockquote>11月对于道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA来说可能是一个好月份，+0.56%，预计将上涨0.6%，即约220点。</blockquote> Such a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.<blockquote>这样的涨幅将使美国股市领头羊达到36,040点左右，而10月份收盘时为35,820点。你希望得到更多吗？毕竟，道琼斯指数在10月份上涨了近6%。</blockquote> You shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.<blockquote>你不应该感到惊讶。道琼斯指数本月的预期涨幅与日历上每隔一个月的涨幅相同。11月没有理由比历史平均水平更好或更差。</blockquote> It’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.<blockquote>指出这一点很重要，以对抗华尔街那些挖掘历史数据寻找“神秘”季节性模式的人。我们能从他们的努力中学到的唯一真正的投资教训是，如果你折磨数据足够长时间和努力，你几乎可以让它说出任何东西。</blockquote> Consider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”<blockquote>想想华尔街一家大公司的首席投资官上周在给客户的电子邮件中所说的话：“从历史上看，11月是相当强劲的。事实上，自1950年以来，以及过去10年，它是一年中最好的月份，而在过去20年和选举后的一年中，它排名第二。11月是一年中最好的月份，但它似乎没有你想象的那么多爱。我们都认为12月是最好的月份，但11月实际上更好，而且很少大张旗鼓。”</blockquote> This raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?<blockquote>这引发了几个危险信号。为什么选择1950年以来的时期，而不是1960年或1940年？为什么只关注过去10年或20年，而不是过去13年、23年或27年？</blockquote> Unless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.<blockquote>除非有令人信服的理论理由关注历史数据的子集，否则这样做表明有意的数据挖掘正在进行。</blockquote> The Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th&nbsp;for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.<blockquote>道琼斯指数为投资者提供自1896年5月创立以来的月度数据。在接下来的125年里，11月的平均回报率在所有年份中排名第五，如下图所示。11月略高于平均水平，但未达到统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平。事实上，它甚至没有接近。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a13b9bba8ec5e47cf1c0ed3172447f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> How about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th&nbsp;place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.<blockquote>11月是后总统选举年第二好的月份怎么样？同样，这仅适用于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>历史数据的子集。纵观道琼斯指数的整个历史，11月份在总统选举后年份的平均表现排名第六。也就是说，它在这类年份的业绩排名其实比整个样本中略差一些。</blockquote> I don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.<blockquote>我无意挑这位著名的华尔街首席信息官的毛病，这就是为什么我没有提到他的名字。他实际上有一个很好的伙伴。</blockquote> Playing the odds<blockquote>玩赔率</blockquote> There’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.<blockquote>除了缺乏统计意义之外，这种数据挖掘还有一个更根本的问题：在对季节性模式下注时，为了获得对你有利的历史赔率，你必须连续多次下注——至少几十次。因此，当押注于一年只出现一次的模式时，明智的押注会持续几十年。在任何一年，成功的几率都只是略高于抛硬币。</blockquote> In all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.<blockquote>例如，自1896年以来的所有11月，道琼斯指数有63%的时间上涨。即使假设未来会像过去一样，押注股市将在11月上涨的可能性也会略高于每三年中的一次。这风险太大，不足以证明把谨慎抛在脑后是合理的。</blockquote> Ideally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.<blockquote>理想情况下，从统计学的角度来看，你可以找到统计上显著的短期模式。这将允许您，即使持有期相对较短，也可以在这些模式上下注足够多次，以获得对您有利的赔率。</blockquote> This, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)<blockquote>例如，这就是Renaissance Technologies的Medallion基金取得巨大成功背后的秘密，该基金（即使扣除费用后）在1988年至2018年间以39.2%的年化回报率高达10.0%的令人难以置信的优势击败了标准普尔500SPX指数+0.37%。（该基金不向外部投资者开放。）</blockquote> Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.<blockquote>加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授布拉德·康奈尔(Brad Cornell)报告称，Medallion Fund任何单笔交易的成功率为50.75%，仅略高于50%。但当与高频交易相结合时，这些赔率足以产生高利润的策略。康奈尔写道，Medallion的“策略包括不断开设和回补数千个短期头寸，包括多头和空头……进行了数百万笔交易，[50.75%]百分比使公司赚取了数十亿美元”。</blockquote> Remember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.<blockquote>下次你读到所谓的股市季节性模式时，请记住这一点。即使这种模式在统计上很重要（这种情况很少见），从长远来看也不会对你有多大帮助。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156505839","content_text":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.\nSuch a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.\nYou shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.\nIt’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.\nConsider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”\nThis raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?\nUnless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.\nThe Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.\n\nHow about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only one subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.\nI don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.\nPlaying the odds\nThere’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.\nIn all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.\nIdeally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.\nThis, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)\nBrad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.\nRemember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/845535083"}