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2021-11-04
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Walmart: A Smart Defensive Choice During Bear Markets<blockquote>沃尔玛：熊市期间明智的防御选择</blockquote>
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Slow but steady growth trends in the overall U.S. economy have produced an annualized total return of +14% the past five years, about what has been generated by Wall Street equity investments generally. My last mention of the company in an article here during August 2020 found a standoff between positive and negative forces for the stock, with an expectation of an eventual decline in price. While a meaningful sell-off never materialized, its performance has been particularly lackluster vs. other U.S. stocks, general merchandise peers, and the rest of the retail industry since then, pictured below. My comparison group includes <b>Target</b>(TGT),<b>Costco</b>(COST),<b>Dollar General</b>(DG), and <b>Amazon</b>(AMZN), plus the <b>Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF</b>(QQQ),<b>SPDR S&P 500 ETF</b>(SPY), and <b>SPDR S&P Retail ETF</b>(XRT).</p><p><blockquote>我的感觉<b>沃尔玛</b>(WMT)多年来一直处于混合至中性状态。过去五年，美国整体经济缓慢但稳定的增长趋势产生了+14%的年化总回报率，大约相当于华尔街股票投资的总体回报率。我最后一次在2020年8月的一篇文章中提到该公司时，发现该股的正面和负面力量之间存在僵局，预计价格最终会下跌。虽然有意义的抛售从未实现，但自那时以来，与其他美国股票、百货同行和零售业的其他股票相比，其表现尤其黯淡，如下图所示。我的比较组包括<b>目标</b>（TGT），<b>Costco</b>（成本），<b>美元将军</b>(DG)，以及<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN），加上<b>景顺纳斯达克100 ETF</b>（QQQ），<b>SPDR标普500 ETF</b>（SPDR标普500指数ETF），以及<b>SPDR标准普尔零售ETF</b>（XRT）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42bcf1a67f9f79c255437d68c2a5ac77\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The silver lining for Walmart shareholders is the company may be better situated for a major bear market on Wall Street and/or the appearance of another recession, than the vast majority of individual stocks you can buy in early November. Defensive trading characteristics in the past, an interesting dividend story today, and a worthwhile \"relative\" valuation are all arguments to stay the course (assuming you already own a position), or seriously consider purchasing a stake in this mega-cap blue chip. If you are worried about a sizable equity market setback like I am, Walmart could be an excellent place to park some investment capital, especially inside hedged long/short portfolio designs.</p><p><blockquote>对于沃尔玛股东来说，一线希望是，与11月初可以购买的绝大多数个股相比，该公司可能更适合华尔街的重大熊市和/或另一场经济衰退的出现。过去的防御性交易特征、今天有趣的股息故事以及有价值的“相对”估值都是坚持到底（假设您已经持有头寸）或认真考虑购买这家大型蓝筹股股份的论据。如果你像我一样担心股市大幅下跌，沃尔玛可能是存放一些投资资本的绝佳场所，尤其是在对冲多头/空头投资组合设计中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outperformance in Bear Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市中表现出色</b></blockquote></p><p> For students of market history, Walmart has been the most consistent \"outperformer\" in the retail group during past bear markets of greater than 15%, over the last two decades. Below are total return performance graphs vs. the same peer business group and general market indexes. The pandemic panic drop between January and the end of March 2020 is pictured, alongside the late 2018 FED tightening drawdown, second half of 2011 U.S. Treasury downgrade selling, late 2007 to March 2009 Great Recession, and Dotcom bust of September 2000 to October 2002. Believe it or not, Walmart traded flat to higher for investors during each of these equity market liquidation spans! [Dollar General and the SPDR Retail ETF did not exist in the last two examples.]</p><p><blockquote>对于学习市场历史的学生来说，在过去二十年超过15%的熊市中，沃尔玛一直是零售集团中最稳定的“跑赢者”。以下是与相同同行业务组和一般市场指数的总回报绩效图。图中显示了2020年1月至3月底之间的疫情恐慌性下跌，以及2018年底美联储紧缩缩减、2011年下半年美国国债评级下调抛售、2007年底至2009年3月的大衰退以及2000年9月至2002年10月的互联网泡沫破裂。不管你信不信，在每个股市清算期间，沃尔玛对投资者的交易价格都持平或上涨！[最后两个例子中不存在Dollar General和SPDR Retail ETF。]</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da53b54d234b335d31e7fdffd3f7648c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d40249863e58e5fefa2d9352ede5857\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b775dc9e021038acdc6be3ed7b0c0b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453bbdfa018833c99be8cb486edb6321\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c44c2e2edbb68024dc9f3749c5cfaa6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend Yield</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息率</b></blockquote></p><p> Walmart's dividend yield has been on the higher end of the range vs. major competitors and the S&P 500 for a number of years, but has now morphed into the dividend leader for our peer group since summertime. The 1.46% yield is far from extraordinary vs. America's rising inflation rate backdrop in 2021. The good news regarding inflation is the company should be able to easily pass along rising goods pricing and labor costs, as consumers are flush with cash. If Walmart cannot raise prices to consumers in the future, the whole economy and equity market is in serious trouble. In addition, the $2.20 dividend represents 20% of trailing cash flow generation, and 30% of expected forward earnings. If the economy is functioning more normally next year (as pandemic issues fade), Walmart could raise its dividend payout far stronger than the few pennies per year increase of late.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，与主要竞争对手和标普500相比，沃尔玛的股息收益率一直处于较高水平，但自夏季以来，沃尔玛已成为我们同行的股息领先者。与2021年美国通胀率上升的背景相比，1.46%的收益率远非非凡。关于通货膨胀的好消息是，由于消费者现金充裕，该公司应该能够轻松转嫁不断上涨的商品价格和劳动力成本。如果沃尔玛未来不能提高对消费者的价格，整个经济和股权市场就会陷入严重困境。此外，2.20美元的股息占追踪现金流生成量的20%和预期远期收益的30%。如果明年经济运行更加正常（随着大流行问题的消退），沃尔玛可能会提高股息支付，远高于最近每年几美分的增幅。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880c8914579ba9a0121c7af57951b4c2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86eedae89f82dc9e6b367067ad08d7d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Improving Relative Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高相对估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the top online merchandiser, other national supercenter chains, and the main low-rent dollar store, Walmart holds the lowest price to forward 1-year sales multiple. Plus, valuations on price to earnings estimates into 2022-23 are starting to make a stronger case for Walmart ownership.</p><p><blockquote>与顶级在线商家、其他全国连锁超市和主要的低租金一元店相比，沃尔玛拥有最低的价格，可以实现1年的销售倍数。此外，对2022-23年市盈率的估值开始为沃尔玛的所有权提供更有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f31af8e2e6e27dc583ee96e195aead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e679deafc2840bb793b4a3e554bb18\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Basic analysis of Walmart's underlying fundamental worth highlights a stock that is fairly priced vs. the last 30 years of trading. Price to trailing annual sales, cash flow and book value are on the high end of trading the last decade, but well below normal on a 30-year review (although potential growth rates were higher decades ago). A normalized P/E of less than 25x into 2022 is also very average for Walmart historically. In context, you might expect a more expensive position from America's leading physical-store retailer during arguably the most overvalued condition ever for U.S. equities in late 2021. If you think Walmart is too expensive, then about 90% of Wall Street alternatives should also logically be avoided. My conclusion: if you can gulp high valuations from the current market, Walmart's underlying business setup is worthy of your consideration.</p><p><blockquote>对沃尔玛基本价值的基本分析强调了该股票与过去30年的交易相比定价合理。过去十年，历史年销售额、现金流和账面价值的价格处于交易的高端，但远低于30年回顾的正常水平（尽管几十年前的潜在增长率更高）。从历史上看，沃尔玛到2022年的正常化市盈率低于25倍也非常平均。在这种情况下，您可能会预计，在2021年底美国股市可能处于有史以来最高估的情况下，美国领先的实体店零售商的头寸会更加昂贵。如果你认为沃尔玛太贵，那么从逻辑上讲，大约90%的华尔街替代品也应该避免。我的结论是：如果你能吞下当前市场的高估值，沃尔玛的基础业务设置值得你考虑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9453bbd28ab7c5542b64b4d5b1f02418\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> My family uses the curbside pickup service at our local Walmart, a reaction to the pandemic. We actually love the experience and time saved. So, this invention will remain part of our shopping routine into the future. We tried the Walmart+ free delivery service. It's turned into a complete fiasco. Sometimes we'll receive six or seven deliveries off our same order from various gig-economy <b>DoorDash</b>(DASH) car drivers, each with a few items from different stores and warehouses in the area (requiring a tip for our \"free\" delivery), on top of a <b>FedEx</b>(FDX) box or two a week later. If you want to know what's messing up the supply chain inside America, the Walmart+ creation is another suspect. Somehow, management needs to figure out a better single delivery routine for online orders.</p><p><blockquote>我的家人使用当地沃尔玛的路边取货服务，这是对疫情的反应。我们真的很喜欢这种体验和节省的时间。因此，这项发明在未来仍将是我们日常购物的一部分。我们尝试了沃尔玛+免费送货服务。这已经变成了一场彻底的惨败。有时我们会收到来自不同零工经济的同一订单的六七批货<b>DoorDash</b>（破折号）汽车司机，每个人都有一些来自该地区不同商店和仓库的物品（我们的“免费”送货需要小费），在<b>联邦快递</b>（FDX）一周后一两盒。如果你想知道是什么扰乱了美国国内的供应链，沃尔玛+的创造是另一个嫌疑人。不知何故，管理层需要为在线订单找出一个更好的单一交付程序。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart's Seeking Alpha <i>Quant Ranking</i> is above-average vs. retailing peers and the overall stock market, pictured below. This score fits with my research and thinking. The company has a solid footing for minor gains, although a monster climb seems unlikely from $149 a share.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛寻求阿尔法<i>量化排名</i>与零售同行和整体股市相比，高于平均水平，如下图所示。这个分数符合我的研究和思考。该公司拥有小幅上涨的坚实基础，尽管从每股149美元开始大幅上涨似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad55f3058b3fa946e72a602aa4db5536\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I rate the technical chart pattern as constructive, but lacking standout accumulation patterns. Momentum analysis suggests a market-neutral to slightly bullish future.</p><p><blockquote>我认为技术图表模式具有建设性，但缺乏突出的累积模式。动量分析表明未来市场中性至小幅看涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9d88e8c5b5ba131be1d7ee7186f251\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To me, based on 35 years of trading experience, playing defense in portfolio construction should be your primary goal at the end of 2021. Walmart's strong outperformance history during previous Wall Street shakeouts, and a relative valuation setup that looks quite reasonable are the excuses for me to become more positive on its investment outlook.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，基于35年的交易经验，在投资组合构建中发挥防御作用应该是您在2021年底的首要目标。沃尔玛在之前的华尔街洗牌中表现强劲，而且相对估值设置看起来相当合理，这些都是我对其投资前景更加乐观的借口。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest risks are macroeconomic in nature, including the possibility of a stock market crash, or a black swan geopolitical confrontation with China. Both scenarios would send all stocks dramatically lower, including Walmart.</p><p><blockquote>最大的风险本质上是宏观经济，包括股市崩盘的可能性，或者与中国发生黑天鹅地缘政治对抗。这两种情况都会导致所有股票大幅下跌，包括沃尔玛。</blockquote></p><p> Outside of these super-bear developments, I am projecting single digit total returns from Walmart in the 5-10% range annually over the next 3-5 years. While this forecast may sound uninspiring, if the S&P 500 ends up declining -20% to -30% over the equivalent period as interest rates rise and valuations come back to earth, a +15% to +40% net gain in Walmart shares may prove a truly bullish result into 2024-26. Again, the potential for dramatic outperformance in a bear market during 2022 is my primary bullish thesis.</p><p><blockquote>除了这些超级熊市的发展之外，我预计沃尔玛在未来3-5年内每年的个位数总回报率将在5-10%之间。虽然这一预测听起来可能并不鼓舞人心，但如果随着利率上升和估值回归正常，标普500最终在同期下跌-20%至-30%，沃尔玛股票的净收益可能会增加+15%至+40%。到2024-26年，这将是一个真正看涨的结果。同样，2022年熊市中表现出色的潜力是我的主要看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart: A Smart Defensive Choice During Bear Markets<blockquote>沃尔玛：熊市期间明智的防御选择</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart: A Smart Defensive Choice During Bear Markets<blockquote>沃尔玛：熊市期间明智的防御选择</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 22:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Walmart has underperformed the strong market advance of 2021, but should survive far better than the S&P 500 average given a serious bear phase is next.</li> <li>Historically, Walmart is a top choice to own during sell-offs on Wall Street.</li> <li>An above-average dividend yield story vs. peers and the S&P 500 is noteworthy.</li> <li>Its basic valuation setup is closer to a normal trading range than the majority of U.S. blue-chip equity investments.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac653c37659c9a42795602c367ced74a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LarryHerfindal/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃尔玛的表现落后于2021年的强劲市场增长，但鉴于接下来将进入严重的熊市阶段，其生存状况应该会远好于标普500平均水平。</li><li>从历史上看，沃尔玛是华尔街抛售期间的首选。</li><li>与同行和标普500相比，高于平均水平的股息收益率故事值得注意。</li><li>其基本估值设置比大多数美国蓝筹股投资更接近正常交易区间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LarryHerfindal/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My feelings on <b>Walmart</b>(WMT) have been mixed to neutral for a number of years. Slow but steady growth trends in the overall U.S. economy have produced an annualized total return of +14% the past five years, about what has been generated by Wall Street equity investments generally. My last mention of the company in an article here during August 2020 found a standoff between positive and negative forces for the stock, with an expectation of an eventual decline in price. While a meaningful sell-off never materialized, its performance has been particularly lackluster vs. other U.S. stocks, general merchandise peers, and the rest of the retail industry since then, pictured below. My comparison group includes <b>Target</b>(TGT),<b>Costco</b>(COST),<b>Dollar General</b>(DG), and <b>Amazon</b>(AMZN), plus the <b>Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF</b>(QQQ),<b>SPDR S&P 500 ETF</b>(SPY), and <b>SPDR S&P Retail ETF</b>(XRT).</p><p><blockquote>我的感觉<b>沃尔玛</b>(WMT)多年来一直处于混合至中性状态。过去五年，美国整体经济缓慢但稳定的增长趋势产生了+14%的年化总回报率，大约相当于华尔街股票投资的总体回报率。我最后一次在2020年8月的一篇文章中提到该公司时，发现该股的正面和负面力量之间存在僵局，预计价格最终会下跌。虽然有意义的抛售从未实现，但自那时以来，与其他美国股票、百货同行和零售业的其他股票相比，其表现尤其黯淡，如下图所示。我的比较组包括<b>目标</b>（TGT），<b>Costco</b>（成本），<b>美元将军</b>(DG)，以及<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN），加上<b>景顺纳斯达克100 ETF</b>（QQQ），<b>SPDR标普500 ETF</b>（SPDR标普500指数ETF），以及<b>SPDR标准普尔零售ETF</b>（XRT）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42bcf1a67f9f79c255437d68c2a5ac77\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The silver lining for Walmart shareholders is the company may be better situated for a major bear market on Wall Street and/or the appearance of another recession, than the vast majority of individual stocks you can buy in early November. Defensive trading characteristics in the past, an interesting dividend story today, and a worthwhile \"relative\" valuation are all arguments to stay the course (assuming you already own a position), or seriously consider purchasing a stake in this mega-cap blue chip. If you are worried about a sizable equity market setback like I am, Walmart could be an excellent place to park some investment capital, especially inside hedged long/short portfolio designs.</p><p><blockquote>对于沃尔玛股东来说，一线希望是，与11月初可以购买的绝大多数个股相比，该公司可能更适合华尔街的重大熊市和/或另一场经济衰退的出现。过去的防御性交易特征、今天有趣的股息故事以及有价值的“相对”估值都是坚持到底（假设您已经持有头寸）或认真考虑购买这家大型蓝筹股股份的论据。如果你像我一样担心股市大幅下跌，沃尔玛可能是存放一些投资资本的绝佳场所，尤其是在对冲多头/空头投资组合设计中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outperformance in Bear Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市中表现出色</b></blockquote></p><p> For students of market history, Walmart has been the most consistent \"outperformer\" in the retail group during past bear markets of greater than 15%, over the last two decades. Below are total return performance graphs vs. the same peer business group and general market indexes. The pandemic panic drop between January and the end of March 2020 is pictured, alongside the late 2018 FED tightening drawdown, second half of 2011 U.S. Treasury downgrade selling, late 2007 to March 2009 Great Recession, and Dotcom bust of September 2000 to October 2002. Believe it or not, Walmart traded flat to higher for investors during each of these equity market liquidation spans! [Dollar General and the SPDR Retail ETF did not exist in the last two examples.]</p><p><blockquote>对于学习市场历史的学生来说，在过去二十年超过15%的熊市中，沃尔玛一直是零售集团中最稳定的“跑赢者”。以下是与相同同行业务组和一般市场指数的总回报绩效图。图中显示了2020年1月至3月底之间的疫情恐慌性下跌，以及2018年底美联储紧缩缩减、2011年下半年美国国债评级下调抛售、2007年底至2009年3月的大衰退以及2000年9月至2002年10月的互联网泡沫破裂。不管你信不信，在每个股市清算期间，沃尔玛对投资者的交易价格都持平或上涨！[最后两个例子中不存在Dollar General和SPDR Retail ETF。]</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da53b54d234b335d31e7fdffd3f7648c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d40249863e58e5fefa2d9352ede5857\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b775dc9e021038acdc6be3ed7b0c0b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453bbdfa018833c99be8cb486edb6321\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c44c2e2edbb68024dc9f3749c5cfaa6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend Yield</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息率</b></blockquote></p><p> Walmart's dividend yield has been on the higher end of the range vs. major competitors and the S&P 500 for a number of years, but has now morphed into the dividend leader for our peer group since summertime. The 1.46% yield is far from extraordinary vs. America's rising inflation rate backdrop in 2021. The good news regarding inflation is the company should be able to easily pass along rising goods pricing and labor costs, as consumers are flush with cash. If Walmart cannot raise prices to consumers in the future, the whole economy and equity market is in serious trouble. In addition, the $2.20 dividend represents 20% of trailing cash flow generation, and 30% of expected forward earnings. If the economy is functioning more normally next year (as pandemic issues fade), Walmart could raise its dividend payout far stronger than the few pennies per year increase of late.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，与主要竞争对手和标普500相比，沃尔玛的股息收益率一直处于较高水平，但自夏季以来，沃尔玛已成为我们同行的股息领先者。与2021年美国通胀率上升的背景相比，1.46%的收益率远非非凡。关于通货膨胀的好消息是，由于消费者现金充裕，该公司应该能够轻松转嫁不断上涨的商品价格和劳动力成本。如果沃尔玛未来不能提高对消费者的价格，整个经济和股权市场就会陷入严重困境。此外，2.20美元的股息占追踪现金流生成量的20%和预期远期收益的30%。如果明年经济运行更加正常（随着大流行问题的消退），沃尔玛可能会提高股息支付，远高于最近每年几美分的增幅。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880c8914579ba9a0121c7af57951b4c2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86eedae89f82dc9e6b367067ad08d7d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Improving Relative Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高相对估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the top online merchandiser, other national supercenter chains, and the main low-rent dollar store, Walmart holds the lowest price to forward 1-year sales multiple. Plus, valuations on price to earnings estimates into 2022-23 are starting to make a stronger case for Walmart ownership.</p><p><blockquote>与顶级在线商家、其他全国连锁超市和主要的低租金一元店相比，沃尔玛拥有最低的价格，可以实现1年的销售倍数。此外，对2022-23年市盈率的估值开始为沃尔玛的所有权提供更有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f31af8e2e6e27dc583ee96e195aead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e679deafc2840bb793b4a3e554bb18\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Basic analysis of Walmart's underlying fundamental worth highlights a stock that is fairly priced vs. the last 30 years of trading. Price to trailing annual sales, cash flow and book value are on the high end of trading the last decade, but well below normal on a 30-year review (although potential growth rates were higher decades ago). A normalized P/E of less than 25x into 2022 is also very average for Walmart historically. In context, you might expect a more expensive position from America's leading physical-store retailer during arguably the most overvalued condition ever for U.S. equities in late 2021. If you think Walmart is too expensive, then about 90% of Wall Street alternatives should also logically be avoided. My conclusion: if you can gulp high valuations from the current market, Walmart's underlying business setup is worthy of your consideration.</p><p><blockquote>对沃尔玛基本价值的基本分析强调了该股票与过去30年的交易相比定价合理。过去十年，历史年销售额、现金流和账面价值的价格处于交易的高端，但远低于30年回顾的正常水平（尽管几十年前的潜在增长率更高）。从历史上看，沃尔玛到2022年的正常化市盈率低于25倍也非常平均。在这种情况下，您可能会预计，在2021年底美国股市可能处于有史以来最高估的情况下，美国领先的实体店零售商的头寸会更加昂贵。如果你认为沃尔玛太贵，那么从逻辑上讲，大约90%的华尔街替代品也应该避免。我的结论是：如果你能吞下当前市场的高估值，沃尔玛的基础业务设置值得你考虑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9453bbd28ab7c5542b64b4d5b1f02418\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> My family uses the curbside pickup service at our local Walmart, a reaction to the pandemic. We actually love the experience and time saved. So, this invention will remain part of our shopping routine into the future. We tried the Walmart+ free delivery service. It's turned into a complete fiasco. Sometimes we'll receive six or seven deliveries off our same order from various gig-economy <b>DoorDash</b>(DASH) car drivers, each with a few items from different stores and warehouses in the area (requiring a tip for our \"free\" delivery), on top of a <b>FedEx</b>(FDX) box or two a week later. If you want to know what's messing up the supply chain inside America, the Walmart+ creation is another suspect. Somehow, management needs to figure out a better single delivery routine for online orders.</p><p><blockquote>我的家人使用当地沃尔玛的路边取货服务，这是对疫情的反应。我们真的很喜欢这种体验和节省的时间。因此，这项发明在未来仍将是我们日常购物的一部分。我们尝试了沃尔玛+免费送货服务。这已经变成了一场彻底的惨败。有时我们会收到来自不同零工经济的同一订单的六七批货<b>DoorDash</b>（破折号）汽车司机，每个人都有一些来自该地区不同商店和仓库的物品（我们的“免费”送货需要小费），在<b>联邦快递</b>（FDX）一周后一两盒。如果你想知道是什么扰乱了美国国内的供应链，沃尔玛+的创造是另一个嫌疑人。不知何故，管理层需要为在线订单找出一个更好的单一交付程序。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart's Seeking Alpha <i>Quant Ranking</i> is above-average vs. retailing peers and the overall stock market, pictured below. This score fits with my research and thinking. The company has a solid footing for minor gains, although a monster climb seems unlikely from $149 a share.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛寻求阿尔法<i>量化排名</i>与零售同行和整体股市相比，高于平均水平，如下图所示。这个分数符合我的研究和思考。该公司拥有小幅上涨的坚实基础，尽管从每股149美元开始大幅上涨似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad55f3058b3fa946e72a602aa4db5536\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I rate the technical chart pattern as constructive, but lacking standout accumulation patterns. Momentum analysis suggests a market-neutral to slightly bullish future.</p><p><blockquote>我认为技术图表模式具有建设性，但缺乏突出的累积模式。动量分析表明未来市场中性至小幅看涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9d88e8c5b5ba131be1d7ee7186f251\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To me, based on 35 years of trading experience, playing defense in portfolio construction should be your primary goal at the end of 2021. Walmart's strong outperformance history during previous Wall Street shakeouts, and a relative valuation setup that looks quite reasonable are the excuses for me to become more positive on its investment outlook.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，基于35年的交易经验，在投资组合构建中发挥防御作用应该是您在2021年底的首要目标。沃尔玛在之前的华尔街洗牌中表现强劲，而且相对估值设置看起来相当合理，这些都是我对其投资前景更加乐观的借口。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest risks are macroeconomic in nature, including the possibility of a stock market crash, or a black swan geopolitical confrontation with China. Both scenarios would send all stocks dramatically lower, including Walmart.</p><p><blockquote>最大的风险本质上是宏观经济，包括股市崩盘的可能性，或者与中国发生黑天鹅地缘政治对抗。这两种情况都会导致所有股票大幅下跌，包括沃尔玛。</blockquote></p><p> Outside of these super-bear developments, I am projecting single digit total returns from Walmart in the 5-10% range annually over the next 3-5 years. While this forecast may sound uninspiring, if the S&P 500 ends up declining -20% to -30% over the equivalent period as interest rates rise and valuations come back to earth, a +15% to +40% net gain in Walmart shares may prove a truly bullish result into 2024-26. Again, the potential for dramatic outperformance in a bear market during 2022 is my primary bullish thesis.</p><p><blockquote>除了这些超级熊市的发展之外，我预计沃尔玛在未来3-5年内每年的个位数总回报率将在5-10%之间。虽然这一预测听起来可能并不鼓舞人心，但如果随着利率上升和估值回归正常，标普500最终在同期下跌-20%至-30%，沃尔玛股票的净收益可能会增加+15%至+40%。到2024-26年，这将是一个真正看涨的结果。同样，2022年熊市中表现出色的潜力是我的主要看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465356-walmart-a-smart-defensive-choice\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465356-walmart-a-smart-defensive-choice","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188696728","content_text":"Summary\n\nWalmart has underperformed the strong market advance of 2021, but should survive far better than the S&P 500 average given a serious bear phase is next.\nHistorically, Walmart is a top choice to own during sell-offs on Wall Street.\nAn above-average dividend yield story vs. peers and the S&P 500 is noteworthy.\nIts basic valuation setup is closer to a normal trading range than the majority of U.S. blue-chip equity investments.\n\nLarryHerfindal/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nMy feelings on Walmart(WMT) have been mixed to neutral for a number of years. Slow but steady growth trends in the overall U.S. economy have produced an annualized total return of +14% the past five years, about what has been generated by Wall Street equity investments generally. My last mention of the company in an article here during August 2020 found a standoff between positive and negative forces for the stock, with an expectation of an eventual decline in price. While a meaningful sell-off never materialized, its performance has been particularly lackluster vs. other U.S. stocks, general merchandise peers, and the rest of the retail industry since then, pictured below. My comparison group includes Target(TGT),Costco(COST),Dollar General(DG), and Amazon(AMZN), plus the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQ),SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY), and SPDR S&P Retail ETF(XRT).\n\nThe silver lining for Walmart shareholders is the company may be better situated for a major bear market on Wall Street and/or the appearance of another recession, than the vast majority of individual stocks you can buy in early November. Defensive trading characteristics in the past, an interesting dividend story today, and a worthwhile \"relative\" valuation are all arguments to stay the course (assuming you already own a position), or seriously consider purchasing a stake in this mega-cap blue chip. If you are worried about a sizable equity market setback like I am, Walmart could be an excellent place to park some investment capital, especially inside hedged long/short portfolio designs.\nOutperformance in Bear Markets\nFor students of market history, Walmart has been the most consistent \"outperformer\" in the retail group during past bear markets of greater than 15%, over the last two decades. Below are total return performance graphs vs. the same peer business group and general market indexes. The pandemic panic drop between January and the end of March 2020 is pictured, alongside the late 2018 FED tightening drawdown, second half of 2011 U.S. Treasury downgrade selling, late 2007 to March 2009 Great Recession, and Dotcom bust of September 2000 to October 2002. Believe it or not, Walmart traded flat to higher for investors during each of these equity market liquidation spans! [Dollar General and the SPDR Retail ETF did not exist in the last two examples.]\n\nDividend Yield\nWalmart's dividend yield has been on the higher end of the range vs. major competitors and the S&P 500 for a number of years, but has now morphed into the dividend leader for our peer group since summertime. The 1.46% yield is far from extraordinary vs. America's rising inflation rate backdrop in 2021. The good news regarding inflation is the company should be able to easily pass along rising goods pricing and labor costs, as consumers are flush with cash. If Walmart cannot raise prices to consumers in the future, the whole economy and equity market is in serious trouble. In addition, the $2.20 dividend represents 20% of trailing cash flow generation, and 30% of expected forward earnings. If the economy is functioning more normally next year (as pandemic issues fade), Walmart could raise its dividend payout far stronger than the few pennies per year increase of late.\n\nImproving Relative Valuation\nCompared to the top online merchandiser, other national supercenter chains, and the main low-rent dollar store, Walmart holds the lowest price to forward 1-year sales multiple. Plus, valuations on price to earnings estimates into 2022-23 are starting to make a stronger case for Walmart ownership.\n\nBasic analysis of Walmart's underlying fundamental worth highlights a stock that is fairly priced vs. the last 30 years of trading. Price to trailing annual sales, cash flow and book value are on the high end of trading the last decade, but well below normal on a 30-year review (although potential growth rates were higher decades ago). A normalized P/E of less than 25x into 2022 is also very average for Walmart historically. In context, you might expect a more expensive position from America's leading physical-store retailer during arguably the most overvalued condition ever for U.S. equities in late 2021. If you think Walmart is too expensive, then about 90% of Wall Street alternatives should also logically be avoided. My conclusion: if you can gulp high valuations from the current market, Walmart's underlying business setup is worthy of your consideration.\n\nFinal Thoughts\nMy family uses the curbside pickup service at our local Walmart, a reaction to the pandemic. We actually love the experience and time saved. So, this invention will remain part of our shopping routine into the future. We tried the Walmart+ free delivery service. It's turned into a complete fiasco. Sometimes we'll receive six or seven deliveries off our same order from various gig-economy DoorDash(DASH) car drivers, each with a few items from different stores and warehouses in the area (requiring a tip for our \"free\" delivery), on top of a FedEx(FDX) box or two a week later. If you want to know what's messing up the supply chain inside America, the Walmart+ creation is another suspect. Somehow, management needs to figure out a better single delivery routine for online orders.\nWalmart's Seeking Alpha Quant Ranking is above-average vs. retailing peers and the overall stock market, pictured below. This score fits with my research and thinking. The company has a solid footing for minor gains, although a monster climb seems unlikely from $149 a share.\n\nI rate the technical chart pattern as constructive, but lacking standout accumulation patterns. Momentum analysis suggests a market-neutral to slightly bullish future.\n\nTo me, based on 35 years of trading experience, playing defense in portfolio construction should be your primary goal at the end of 2021. Walmart's strong outperformance history during previous Wall Street shakeouts, and a relative valuation setup that looks quite reasonable are the excuses for me to become more positive on its investment outlook.\nThe biggest risks are macroeconomic in nature, including the possibility of a stock market crash, or a black swan geopolitical confrontation with China. Both scenarios would send all stocks dramatically lower, including Walmart.\nOutside of these super-bear developments, I am projecting single digit total returns from Walmart in the 5-10% range annually over the next 3-5 years. While this forecast may sound uninspiring, if the S&P 500 ends up declining -20% to -30% over the equivalent period as interest rates rise and valuations come back to earth, a +15% to +40% net gain in Walmart shares may prove a truly bullish result into 2024-26. Again, the potential for dramatic outperformance in a bear market during 2022 is my primary bullish thesis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/846993813"}
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