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2021-11-04

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Spotify Is Looking Better Than Ever<blockquote>Spotify看起来比以往任何时候都好</blockquote>

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Travel the world to capture moments and beautiful photos. Sony Alpha User/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>付费用户增长重回正轨。</li><li>播客将部分业务从可变成本结构转移到固定成本结构。</li><li>广告收入同比增长75%！</li></ul>狂热的摄影师。环游世界，捕捉瞬间和美丽的照片。索尼Alpha用户/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> My thesis is that the future is bright for Spotify (SPOT) as paid subscribers, gross margins and ad revenue continue with prodigious growth. CEO Daniel Ek and the rest of Spotify have ardor to be a huge part of audio as the world keeps moving towards streaming and podcasts.<blockquote>我的论点是，随着付费订户、毛利率和广告收入持续大幅增长，Spotify(SPOT)的未来是光明的。随着世界不断向流媒体和播客发展，首席执行官丹尼尔·埃克和Spotify的其他成员热衷于成为音频的重要组成部分。</blockquote> In the 3Q21 earnings&nbsp;call, CEO Ek talked about Spotify’s opportunities as the world shifts away from terrestrial radio:<blockquote>在2021年第三季度财报看涨期权中，首席执行官埃克谈到了随着世界远离地面广播而带来的机遇：</blockquote> A good reminder, Linear Radio still has a 46% share of audio listening&nbsp;in the U.S. alone, this despite consumption shifting steadily away from it. In this year, more than 60% of all audio ads spending will go to traditional radio. I think this clearly shows that we have plenty of room to grow both in listening time and in our effective monetization. At the time of this writing the exchange rate is about $1.16 per €1.<blockquote>很好的提醒，线性收音机仍有46%的音频收听份额仅在美国，尽管消费正在稳步远离它。在这一年里，超过60%的音频广告支出将用于传统广播.我认为这清楚地表明，我们在收听时间和有效货币化方面都有很大的增长空间。在撰写本文时，汇率约为1欧元兑1.16美元。</blockquote> Paid Subscribers Keep Rising<blockquote>付费用户持续上升</blockquote> It’s a no-brainer for new subscribers to continue signing up as streaming music is one of the cheapest forms of entertainment available per the June 2021 Music is Universal&nbsp;presentation&nbsp;by Pershing Square:<blockquote>根据潘兴广场2021年6月的Music is Universal演示文稿，新订阅者继续注册是理所当然的，因为流媒体音乐是最便宜的娱乐形式之一：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb02c3b21b98d3c77807c1dd039f633\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: June 2021 Music is Universal presentation by Pershing Square<blockquote>图片来源：2021年6月潘兴广场音乐是普遍呈现</blockquote> Size begets size as new streaming customers like to go with the market leader. There is no one close to Spotify in terms of paid subscribers in the audio landscape. Apple (AAPL) might be a distant number two; they are well behind and they stopped disclosing their numbers some time ago. Also, Apple’s worldwide smartphone penetration isn’t nearly as high as their U.S. level.<blockquote>规模产生规模，因为新的流媒体客户喜欢与市场领导者合作。就音频领域的付费用户而言，没有人能与Spotify相提并论。苹果（AAPL）可能远远落后于第二名；他们远远落后，他们在一段时间前停止披露他们的数字。此外，苹果的全球智能手机普及率远不及美国的水平。</blockquote> Years ago Barry McCarthy was the CFO at Netflix (NFLX) and he learned the importance of being the earlier leader in the race to acquire paid subscribers. He left Netflix with the right structure and took that knowledge to Spotify where he served as CFO, laying down a solid foundation before handing the reins to current CFO, Paul Vogel. Spotify is catching up with Netflix with respect to paid subscribers but both companies are still growing nicely which is partially due to the contributions made by former CFO McCarthy. Back in 2015, Spotify only had 37% as many subscribers as Netflix but through 3Q21 they were up to 81%. I put together a chart to help visualize the growth for both companies:<blockquote>几年前，巴里·麦卡锡(Barry McCarthy)担任Netflix(NFLX)的首席财务官，他了解到在获取付费用户的竞赛中成为早期领导者的重要性。他带着正确的结构离开了Netflix，并将这些知识带到了Spotify，在那里他担任首席财务官，在将权力移交给现任首席财务官保罗·沃格尔之前奠定了坚实的基础。Spotify在付费用户方面正在赶上Netflix，但两家公司仍在良好增长，这部分归功于前首席财务官麦卡锡的贡献。早在2015年，Spotify的用户数量仅为Netflix的37%，但通过2021年第三季度，这一比例高达81%。我整理了一张图表来帮助可视化两家公司的增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4899bdb38637d477621ecfa1d6c920a\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: Author’s spreadsheet<blockquote>图片来源：作者电子表格</blockquote> The Gross Margin Keeps Improving<blockquote>毛利率持续改善</blockquote> Per the 3Q21&nbsp;financial statements, Spotify’s 3Q21 gross margin was 26.7% which is a nice improvement from the 3Q20 gross margin of 24.8% below:<blockquote>根据21年第三季度财务报表，Spotify的2021年第三季度毛利率为26.7%，较2020年第三季度24.8%的毛利率有了很大改善：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa7b0f76e8b23068fd5054d67d0568a6\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: 3Q21 financial statements<blockquote>图片来源：2021年第三季度财务报表</blockquote> The 3Q21&nbsp;press release&nbsp;talks about this improvement:<blockquote>3 Q 21新闻稿谈到了这一改进：</blockquote> Gross Margin finished at 26.7% in Q3, above the top end of our guidance range and reflecting nearly 200 bps of Y/Y expansion. The Gross Margin improvement reflected a favorable revenue mix shift towards podcasts, marketplace activity, improved music advertising operating leverage, and Other Cost of Revenue efficiencies (e.g. payment fees, streaming delivery costs), which were partially offset by higher non-music and other content costs and publishing rate increases. Premium Gross Margin was 29.1% in Q3, up 182 bps Y/Y, and Ad-Supported Gross Margin was 10.5% in Q3, up 993 bps Y/Y. As a reminder, all content costs related to podcast investment are included in the Ad-Supported business for the current and historical periods. These days Netflix enjoys a gross margin north of 40% but it was down at 27.2% [$983.4 million/$3,609.3 million] for 2012 per the&nbsp;10-K&nbsp;from that year. Per the Spotify 3Q21&nbsp;financial statements, their 9M21 gross margin is 26.9% [€1,879 million/€ 6,979 million] so they’re almost up to the 2012 level at Netflix. Spotify has come a long way from their gross margin of 11.6% for 2015 in their S-1&nbsp;filing&nbsp;and they aim to keep going up to a level of 30% to 40%. CFO Paul Vogel answered a question about getting to the 40% level at the September 2021 Bank of America&nbsp;Conference. He noted that podcasts are a drag on gross margins right now but said that will flip as the business matures and they have more of a fixed cost structure than a variable cost structure:<blockquote>第三季度毛利率为26.7%，高于我们指导范围的上限，反映出同比增长近200个基点。毛利率的改善反映了有利的收入组合向播客、市场活动、音乐广告运营杠杆的提高以及其他收入效率成本（例如支付费用、流媒体交付成本）的转变，这些成本被更高的非音乐和其他内容部分抵消成本和出版率的增加。第三季度保费毛利率为29.1%，同比增长182个基点，第三季度广告支持毛利率为10.5%，同比增长993个基点。提醒一下，所有与播客投资相关的内容成本都包含在当前和历史时期的广告支持业务中。如今，网飞的毛利率超过40%，但2012年每10-K的毛利率较当年下降至27.2%（9.834亿美元/36.093亿美元）。根据Spotify 21年第三季度的财务报表，他们21年前9个月的毛利率为26.9%【€18.79亿英镑/€69.79亿英镑】，因此他们几乎达到了网飞2012年的水平。Spotify在S-1文件中的2015年毛利率为11.6%，已经取得了长足的进步，他们的目标是继续提高到30%至40%的水平。首席财务官Paul Vogel在2021年9月的美国银行会议上回答了有关达到40%水平的问题。他指出，播客目前拖累了毛利率，但表示随着业务的成熟，这种情况将会发生转变，而且它们的固定成本结构比可变成本结构更多：</blockquote> One is, we think advertising is going to continue to grow, continue to be a bigger part of our business. Right now, it’s 10% of our business. We think there’s opportunity to improve the ad margins on the music side alone, because right now they’re lower than their premium side. We think there’s an opportunity there. And then you delve into the podcasting side where, as you said, as more and more of our business can move over to a fixed cost nature versus variable costs nature, we think there’s a big opportunity to grow gross margin, on top of the podcasting business, and we sort of modeled that over a long period of time. And even though&nbsp; right now, the podcast business is actually a drag on gross margins. We think over time, that will flip and will be a benefit to gross margins, if not a significant benefit to the gross margin. Ad Dollars Are Increasing<blockquote>一是，我们认为广告将继续增长，继续成为我们业务的重要组成部分。目前，它占我们业务的10%。我们认为仅音乐方面的广告利润率就有机会提高，因为目前它们低于优质方面。我们认为那里有机会。然后你深入到播客方面，就像你说的，随着我们越来越多的业务转向固定成本性质而不是可变成本性质，我们认为毛利率有很大的增长机会在播客业务之上，我们在很长一段时间内对其进行了建模。尽管目前，播客业务实际上拖累了毛利率.我们认为，随着时间的推移，这种情况将会发生逆转，即使对毛利率没有显着好处，也会对毛利率有利。广告费用不断增加</blockquote> Quarterly ad revenue grew 75% year-over-year:<blockquote>季度广告收入同比增长75%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813c508a4233806d0b0c40878e880126\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: 3Q21 financial statements<blockquote>图片来源：2021年第三季度财务报表</blockquote> Podcasts are a key part of ad revenue and the progress in this area was illustrated in the 3Q21 earnings call:<blockquote>播客是广告收入的关键部分，2021年第三季度收益看涨期权说明了该领域的进展：</blockquote> We started our journey&nbsp; 3 years ago in podcasting with a catalog of about 185,000 podcasts. And we were really nowhere compared to the largest players in the industry. Today, we have 3.2 million podcastson the platform, a growth rate of over 1,500%. But despite the fact that we're still a relatively new entrant, previous data indicated we have become the top platform for podcast consumption, in 60-plus countries. And now, according to Edison research and our own internal sources, we recently became&nbsp; the number one podcast platform U.S. listeners use the most. In the 3Q21 earnings call, it was noted that advertising revenues as a percentage of total revenues hit 13%. A question was asked by Rich Greenfield about the mix of revenues in five years and that mix shift impacting margins. CEO Daniel Ek answered by saying advertising should eventually be at least 20% of revenues and maybe even more than 40% of revenues in 5 to 10 years:<blockquote>我们开始了旅程3年前在播客中拥有约185,000个播客的目录.与业内最大的参与者相比，我们真的一文不值。今天，我们有320万个播客在平台上，增长率超过1500%。尽管我们仍然是一个相对较新的进入者，但之前的数据表明，我们已经成为60多个国家播客消费的顶级平台。而现在，根据Edison research和我们自己的内部消息，我们最近成为美国听众使用最多的头号播客平台.在2021年第三季度的盈利看涨期权中，广告收入占总收入的比例达到13%。Rich Greenfield提出了一个关于五年后收入组合以及组合变化影响利润率的问题。首席执行官Daniel Ek回应称，广告最终应该至少占收入的20%，甚至可能在5到10年内超过收入的40%：</blockquote> Maybe I'll talk about the size of this and Paul can chime in on the impact on margins. I'm really excited about ads. I think we have had a tremendous quarter with 75% growth year-over-year. But this is just the beginning, as I stated in my opening remarks. Long term, I believe at the very least, this should be 20% of our revenues. But it might possibly be a lot more than that 30%, 40% even over the next 5 to 10 years.We're very excited about this being the second big revenue driver for Spotify and are obviously investing behind that both in product and platform improvements, but also as you may have read in hiring staff across the world that helps service these advertisers. CFO Vogel chimed in on the mix of revenues question with some answers as well, noting that margins were up almost 1,000 basis points on the ad side:<blockquote>也许我会谈谈这个问题的规模，保罗可以插话对利润率的影响。我真的对广告感到兴奋。我认为我们度过了一个巨大的季度，同比增长了75%。但正如我在开场白中所说，这只是一个开始。从长远来看，我相信这至少应该占我们收入的20%。但在未来5到10年内，这一数字可能会远高于30%、40%。我们对这成为Spotify的第二大收入驱动力感到非常兴奋，显然我们正在投资于产品和平台改进，而且正如您可能在世界各地招聘员工来帮助服务这些广告商时读到的那样。首席财务官Vogel插话了收入组合问题并给出了一些答案，并指出广告方面的利润率增长了近1,000个基点：</blockquote> And then from advertising generals, as Daniel said, it was up 75% in the quarter. We saw really nice, healthy gains on the music side. It was up significantly on the advertising side. And then podcasts advertising growth was in the triple digits. So we're seeing it across the board. What's really interesting is that the increased inventory is bringing increased demand. The demand is really high across all of our products. Podcasting is helping significantly on that. And then from a margin standpoint, obviously, the podcasting margin is helpful over time. We think having a fixed cost nature of the podcasting business and being able to grow that advertising will help margins. But additionally, just bringing more advertising into the platform, we're seeing the free music margins move up as well as you guys are aware, our free music margins are below our premium music margin. So to the extent that we can drive incremental advertising across not just podcasting, but music in general, that will help margins as well. Valuation<blockquote>正如丹尼尔所说，广告将军在本季度增长了75%。我们在音乐方面看到了非常好、健康的进步。广告方面大幅上涨。然后播客广告增长达到了三位数。所以我们看到了全面的情况。真正有趣的是，库存的增加带来了需求的增加。我们所有产品的需求都很高。播客在这方面有很大的帮助。从利润的角度来看，显然，随着时间的推移，播客利润是有帮助的。我们认为播客业务具有固定成本性质并能够增加广告将有助于提高利润率。但此外，只要将更多广告引入平台，我们就会看到免费音乐利润率上升，正如你们所知，我们的免费音乐利润率低于我们的优质音乐利润率。因此，在某种程度上，我们不仅可以在播客上，还可以在音乐上推动增量广告，这也将有助于提高利润率。估值</blockquote> In my March&nbsp;article, I thought Spotify was worth about $55 billion. Some of the numbers coming in since that time have been even better than expected. Also, management has increased the bottom end of the range for 4Q21 total revenue and gross margin. I now think Spotify is worth close to $60 billion. Today’s market cap is $58 billion based on the November 2nd share price of $298.08 and the 194,614,910 share count as of September 30, 2021 in the 2Q21 6-K&nbsp;filing. The enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap and I believe the stock is reasonably priced for the long run.<blockquote>在我3月份的文章中，我认为Spotify的价值约为550亿美元。从那时起，一些数据甚至比预期的还要好。此外，管理层还提高了2021年第四季度总收入和毛利率范围的下限。我现在认为Spotify的价值接近600亿美元。根据2021年第二季度6-K文件中11月2日298.08美元的股价和截至2021年9月30日的194,614,910股数量，今天的市值为580亿美元。企业价值相当接近市值，我相信从长远来看，该股票的定价是合理的。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spotify Is Looking Better Than Ever<blockquote>Spotify看起来比以往任何时候都好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpotify Is Looking Better Than Ever<blockquote>Spotify看起来比以往任何时候都好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-04 20:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Paid subscriber growth is back on track.</li> <li>Podcasts shift part of the business from a variable cost structure to a fixed cost structure.</li> <li>Ad revenue is up 75% year-over-year!</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f58dc20880972b1c81308d898c14f9ba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Avid Photographer. Travel the world to capture moments and beautiful photos. Sony Alpha User/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>付费用户增长重回正轨。</li><li>播客将部分业务从可变成本结构转移到固定成本结构。</li><li>广告收入同比增长75%！</li></ul>狂热的摄影师。环游世界，捕捉瞬间和美丽的照片。索尼Alpha用户/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> My thesis is that the future is bright for Spotify (SPOT) as paid subscribers, gross margins and ad revenue continue with prodigious growth. CEO Daniel Ek and the rest of Spotify have ardor to be a huge part of audio as the world keeps moving towards streaming and podcasts.<blockquote>我的论点是，随着付费订户、毛利率和广告收入持续大幅增长，Spotify(SPOT)的未来是光明的。随着世界不断向流媒体和播客发展，首席执行官丹尼尔·埃克和Spotify的其他成员热衷于成为音频的重要组成部分。</blockquote> In the 3Q21 earnings&nbsp;call, CEO Ek talked about Spotify’s opportunities as the world shifts away from terrestrial radio:<blockquote>在2021年第三季度财报看涨期权中，首席执行官埃克谈到了随着世界远离地面广播而带来的机遇：</blockquote> A good reminder, Linear Radio still has a 46% share of audio listening&nbsp;in the U.S. alone, this despite consumption shifting steadily away from it. In this year, more than 60% of all audio ads spending will go to traditional radio. I think this clearly shows that we have plenty of room to grow both in listening time and in our effective monetization. At the time of this writing the exchange rate is about $1.16 per €1.<blockquote>很好的提醒，线性收音机仍有46%的音频收听份额仅在美国，尽管消费正在稳步远离它。在这一年里，超过60%的音频广告支出将用于传统广播.我认为这清楚地表明，我们在收听时间和有效货币化方面都有很大的增长空间。在撰写本文时，汇率约为1欧元兑1.16美元。</blockquote> Paid Subscribers Keep Rising<blockquote>付费用户持续上升</blockquote> It’s a no-brainer for new subscribers to continue signing up as streaming music is one of the cheapest forms of entertainment available per the June 2021 Music is Universal&nbsp;presentation&nbsp;by Pershing Square:<blockquote>根据潘兴广场2021年6月的Music is Universal演示文稿，新订阅者继续注册是理所当然的，因为流媒体音乐是最便宜的娱乐形式之一：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb02c3b21b98d3c77807c1dd039f633\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: June 2021 Music is Universal presentation by Pershing Square<blockquote>图片来源：2021年6月潘兴广场音乐是普遍呈现</blockquote> Size begets size as new streaming customers like to go with the market leader. There is no one close to Spotify in terms of paid subscribers in the audio landscape. Apple (AAPL) might be a distant number two; they are well behind and they stopped disclosing their numbers some time ago. Also, Apple’s worldwide smartphone penetration isn’t nearly as high as their U.S. level.<blockquote>规模产生规模，因为新的流媒体客户喜欢与市场领导者合作。就音频领域的付费用户而言，没有人能与Spotify相提并论。苹果（AAPL）可能远远落后于第二名；他们远远落后，他们在一段时间前停止披露他们的数字。此外，苹果的全球智能手机普及率远不及美国的水平。</blockquote> Years ago Barry McCarthy was the CFO at Netflix (NFLX) and he learned the importance of being the earlier leader in the race to acquire paid subscribers. He left Netflix with the right structure and took that knowledge to Spotify where he served as CFO, laying down a solid foundation before handing the reins to current CFO, Paul Vogel. Spotify is catching up with Netflix with respect to paid subscribers but both companies are still growing nicely which is partially due to the contributions made by former CFO McCarthy. Back in 2015, Spotify only had 37% as many subscribers as Netflix but through 3Q21 they were up to 81%. I put together a chart to help visualize the growth for both companies:<blockquote>几年前，巴里·麦卡锡(Barry McCarthy)担任Netflix(NFLX)的首席财务官，他了解到在获取付费用户的竞赛中成为早期领导者的重要性。他带着正确的结构离开了Netflix，并将这些知识带到了Spotify，在那里他担任首席财务官，在将权力移交给现任首席财务官保罗·沃格尔之前奠定了坚实的基础。Spotify在付费用户方面正在赶上Netflix，但两家公司仍在良好增长，这部分归功于前首席财务官麦卡锡的贡献。早在2015年，Spotify的用户数量仅为Netflix的37%，但通过2021年第三季度，这一比例高达81%。我整理了一张图表来帮助可视化两家公司的增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4899bdb38637d477621ecfa1d6c920a\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: Author’s spreadsheet<blockquote>图片来源：作者电子表格</blockquote> The Gross Margin Keeps Improving<blockquote>毛利率持续改善</blockquote> Per the 3Q21&nbsp;financial statements, Spotify’s 3Q21 gross margin was 26.7% which is a nice improvement from the 3Q20 gross margin of 24.8% below:<blockquote>根据21年第三季度财务报表，Spotify的2021年第三季度毛利率为26.7%，较2020年第三季度24.8%的毛利率有了很大改善：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa7b0f76e8b23068fd5054d67d0568a6\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: 3Q21 financial statements<blockquote>图片来源：2021年第三季度财务报表</blockquote> The 3Q21&nbsp;press release&nbsp;talks about this improvement:<blockquote>3 Q 21新闻稿谈到了这一改进：</blockquote> Gross Margin finished at 26.7% in Q3, above the top end of our guidance range and reflecting nearly 200 bps of Y/Y expansion. The Gross Margin improvement reflected a favorable revenue mix shift towards podcasts, marketplace activity, improved music advertising operating leverage, and Other Cost of Revenue efficiencies (e.g. payment fees, streaming delivery costs), which were partially offset by higher non-music and other content costs and publishing rate increases. Premium Gross Margin was 29.1% in Q3, up 182 bps Y/Y, and Ad-Supported Gross Margin was 10.5% in Q3, up 993 bps Y/Y. As a reminder, all content costs related to podcast investment are included in the Ad-Supported business for the current and historical periods. These days Netflix enjoys a gross margin north of 40% but it was down at 27.2% [$983.4 million/$3,609.3 million] for 2012 per the&nbsp;10-K&nbsp;from that year. Per the Spotify 3Q21&nbsp;financial statements, their 9M21 gross margin is 26.9% [€1,879 million/€ 6,979 million] so they’re almost up to the 2012 level at Netflix. Spotify has come a long way from their gross margin of 11.6% for 2015 in their S-1&nbsp;filing&nbsp;and they aim to keep going up to a level of 30% to 40%. CFO Paul Vogel answered a question about getting to the 40% level at the September 2021 Bank of America&nbsp;Conference. He noted that podcasts are a drag on gross margins right now but said that will flip as the business matures and they have more of a fixed cost structure than a variable cost structure:<blockquote>第三季度毛利率为26.7%，高于我们指导范围的上限，反映出同比增长近200个基点。毛利率的改善反映了有利的收入组合向播客、市场活动、音乐广告运营杠杆的提高以及其他收入效率成本（例如支付费用、流媒体交付成本）的转变，这些成本被更高的非音乐和其他内容部分抵消成本和出版率的增加。第三季度保费毛利率为29.1%，同比增长182个基点，第三季度广告支持毛利率为10.5%，同比增长993个基点。提醒一下，所有与播客投资相关的内容成本都包含在当前和历史时期的广告支持业务中。如今，网飞的毛利率超过40%，但2012年每10-K的毛利率较当年下降至27.2%（9.834亿美元/36.093亿美元）。根据Spotify 21年第三季度的财务报表，他们21年前9个月的毛利率为26.9%【€18.79亿英镑/€69.79亿英镑】，因此他们几乎达到了网飞2012年的水平。Spotify在S-1文件中的2015年毛利率为11.6%，已经取得了长足的进步，他们的目标是继续提高到30%至40%的水平。首席财务官Paul Vogel在2021年9月的美国银行会议上回答了有关达到40%水平的问题。他指出，播客目前拖累了毛利率，但表示随着业务的成熟，这种情况将会发生转变，而且它们的固定成本结构比可变成本结构更多：</blockquote> One is, we think advertising is going to continue to grow, continue to be a bigger part of our business. Right now, it’s 10% of our business. We think there’s opportunity to improve the ad margins on the music side alone, because right now they’re lower than their premium side. We think there’s an opportunity there. And then you delve into the podcasting side where, as you said, as more and more of our business can move over to a fixed cost nature versus variable costs nature, we think there’s a big opportunity to grow gross margin, on top of the podcasting business, and we sort of modeled that over a long period of time. And even though&nbsp; right now, the podcast business is actually a drag on gross margins. We think over time, that will flip and will be a benefit to gross margins, if not a significant benefit to the gross margin. Ad Dollars Are Increasing<blockquote>一是，我们认为广告将继续增长，继续成为我们业务的重要组成部分。目前，它占我们业务的10%。我们认为仅音乐方面的广告利润率就有机会提高，因为目前它们低于优质方面。我们认为那里有机会。然后你深入到播客方面，就像你说的，随着我们越来越多的业务转向固定成本性质而不是可变成本性质，我们认为毛利率有很大的增长机会在播客业务之上，我们在很长一段时间内对其进行了建模。尽管目前，播客业务实际上拖累了毛利率.我们认为，随着时间的推移，这种情况将会发生逆转，即使对毛利率没有显着好处，也会对毛利率有利。广告费用不断增加</blockquote> Quarterly ad revenue grew 75% year-over-year:<blockquote>季度广告收入同比增长75%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813c508a4233806d0b0c40878e880126\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: 3Q21 financial statements<blockquote>图片来源：2021年第三季度财务报表</blockquote> Podcasts are a key part of ad revenue and the progress in this area was illustrated in the 3Q21 earnings call:<blockquote>播客是广告收入的关键部分，2021年第三季度收益看涨期权说明了该领域的进展：</blockquote> We started our journey&nbsp; 3 years ago in podcasting with a catalog of about 185,000 podcasts. And we were really nowhere compared to the largest players in the industry. Today, we have 3.2 million podcastson the platform, a growth rate of over 1,500%. But despite the fact that we're still a relatively new entrant, previous data indicated we have become the top platform for podcast consumption, in 60-plus countries. And now, according to Edison research and our own internal sources, we recently became&nbsp; the number one podcast platform U.S. listeners use the most. In the 3Q21 earnings call, it was noted that advertising revenues as a percentage of total revenues hit 13%. A question was asked by Rich Greenfield about the mix of revenues in five years and that mix shift impacting margins. CEO Daniel Ek answered by saying advertising should eventually be at least 20% of revenues and maybe even more than 40% of revenues in 5 to 10 years:<blockquote>我们开始了旅程3年前在播客中拥有约185,000个播客的目录.与业内最大的参与者相比，我们真的一文不值。今天，我们有320万个播客在平台上，增长率超过1500%。尽管我们仍然是一个相对较新的进入者，但之前的数据表明，我们已经成为60多个国家播客消费的顶级平台。而现在，根据Edison research和我们自己的内部消息，我们最近成为美国听众使用最多的头号播客平台.在2021年第三季度的盈利看涨期权中，广告收入占总收入的比例达到13%。Rich Greenfield提出了一个关于五年后收入组合以及组合变化影响利润率的问题。首席执行官Daniel Ek回应称，广告最终应该至少占收入的20%，甚至可能在5到10年内超过收入的40%：</blockquote> Maybe I'll talk about the size of this and Paul can chime in on the impact on margins. I'm really excited about ads. I think we have had a tremendous quarter with 75% growth year-over-year. But this is just the beginning, as I stated in my opening remarks. Long term, I believe at the very least, this should be 20% of our revenues. But it might possibly be a lot more than that 30%, 40% even over the next 5 to 10 years.We're very excited about this being the second big revenue driver for Spotify and are obviously investing behind that both in product and platform improvements, but also as you may have read in hiring staff across the world that helps service these advertisers. CFO Vogel chimed in on the mix of revenues question with some answers as well, noting that margins were up almost 1,000 basis points on the ad side:<blockquote>也许我会谈谈这个问题的规模，保罗可以插话对利润率的影响。我真的对广告感到兴奋。我认为我们度过了一个巨大的季度，同比增长了75%。但正如我在开场白中所说，这只是一个开始。从长远来看，我相信这至少应该占我们收入的20%。但在未来5到10年内，这一数字可能会远高于30%、40%。我们对这成为Spotify的第二大收入驱动力感到非常兴奋，显然我们正在投资于产品和平台改进，而且正如您可能在世界各地招聘员工来帮助服务这些广告商时读到的那样。首席财务官Vogel插话了收入组合问题并给出了一些答案，并指出广告方面的利润率增长了近1,000个基点：</blockquote> And then from advertising generals, as Daniel said, it was up 75% in the quarter. We saw really nice, healthy gains on the music side. It was up significantly on the advertising side. And then podcasts advertising growth was in the triple digits. So we're seeing it across the board. What's really interesting is that the increased inventory is bringing increased demand. The demand is really high across all of our products. Podcasting is helping significantly on that. And then from a margin standpoint, obviously, the podcasting margin is helpful over time. We think having a fixed cost nature of the podcasting business and being able to grow that advertising will help margins. But additionally, just bringing more advertising into the platform, we're seeing the free music margins move up as well as you guys are aware, our free music margins are below our premium music margin. So to the extent that we can drive incremental advertising across not just podcasting, but music in general, that will help margins as well. Valuation<blockquote>正如丹尼尔所说，广告将军在本季度增长了75%。我们在音乐方面看到了非常好、健康的进步。广告方面大幅上涨。然后播客广告增长达到了三位数。所以我们看到了全面的情况。真正有趣的是，库存的增加带来了需求的增加。我们所有产品的需求都很高。播客在这方面有很大的帮助。从利润的角度来看，显然，随着时间的推移，播客利润是有帮助的。我们认为播客业务具有固定成本性质并能够增加广告将有助于提高利润率。但此外，只要将更多广告引入平台，我们就会看到免费音乐利润率上升，正如你们所知，我们的免费音乐利润率低于我们的优质音乐利润率。因此，在某种程度上，我们不仅可以在播客上，还可以在音乐上推动增量广告，这也将有助于提高利润率。估值</blockquote> In my March&nbsp;article, I thought Spotify was worth about $55 billion. Some of the numbers coming in since that time have been even better than expected. Also, management has increased the bottom end of the range for 4Q21 total revenue and gross margin. I now think Spotify is worth close to $60 billion. Today’s market cap is $58 billion based on the November 2nd share price of $298.08 and the 194,614,910 share count as of September 30, 2021 in the 2Q21 6-K&nbsp;filing. The enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap and I believe the stock is reasonably priced for the long run.<blockquote>在我3月份的文章中，我认为Spotify的价值约为550亿美元。从那时起，一些数据甚至比预期的还要好。此外，管理层还提高了2021年第四季度总收入和毛利率范围的下限。我现在认为Spotify的价值接近600亿美元。根据2021年第二季度6-K文件中11月2日298.08美元的股价和截至2021年9月30日的194,614,910股数量，今天的市值为580亿美元。企业价值相当接近市值，我相信从长远来看，该股票的定价是合理的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465297-spotify-stock-paid-subscriber-growth-back-on-track\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465297-spotify-stock-paid-subscriber-growth-back-on-track","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191996183","content_text":"Summary\n\nPaid subscriber growth is back on track.\nPodcasts shift part of the business from a variable cost structure to a fixed cost structure.\nAd revenue is up 75% year-over-year!\n\nAvid Photographer. Travel the world to capture moments and beautiful photos. Sony Alpha User/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nMy thesis is that the future is bright for Spotify (SPOT) as paid subscribers, gross margins and ad revenue continue with prodigious growth. CEO Daniel Ek and the rest of Spotify have ardor to be a huge part of audio as the world keeps moving towards streaming and podcasts.\nIn the 3Q21 earnings call, CEO Ek talked about Spotify’s opportunities as the world shifts away from terrestrial radio:\n\n A good reminder,\n Linear Radio still has a 46% share of audio listening in the U.S. alone, this despite consumption shifting steadily away from it. In this year,\n more than 60% of all audio ads spending will go to traditional radio. I think this clearly shows that we have plenty of room to grow both in listening time and in our effective monetization.\n\nAt the time of this writing the exchange rate is about $1.16 per €1.\nPaid Subscribers Keep Rising\nIt’s a no-brainer for new subscribers to continue signing up as streaming music is one of the cheapest forms of entertainment available per the June 2021 Music is Universal presentation by Pershing Square:\nImage Source: June 2021 Music is Universal presentation by Pershing Square\nSize begets size as new streaming customers like to go with the market leader. There is no one close to Spotify in terms of paid subscribers in the audio landscape. Apple (AAPL) might be a distant number two; they are well behind and they stopped disclosing their numbers some time ago. Also, Apple’s worldwide smartphone penetration isn’t nearly as high as their U.S. level.\nYears ago Barry McCarthy was the CFO at Netflix (NFLX) and he learned the importance of being the earlier leader in the race to acquire paid subscribers. He left Netflix with the right structure and took that knowledge to Spotify where he served as CFO, laying down a solid foundation before handing the reins to current CFO, Paul Vogel. Spotify is catching up with Netflix with respect to paid subscribers but both companies are still growing nicely which is partially due to the contributions made by former CFO McCarthy. Back in 2015, Spotify only had 37% as many subscribers as Netflix but through 3Q21 they were up to 81%. I put together a chart to help visualize the growth for both companies:\nImage Source: Author’s spreadsheet\nThe Gross Margin Keeps Improving\nPer the 3Q21 financial statements, Spotify’s 3Q21 gross margin was 26.7% which is a nice improvement from the 3Q20 gross margin of 24.8% below:\nImage Source: 3Q21 financial statements\nThe 3Q21 press release talks about this improvement:\n\n Gross Margin finished at 26.7% in Q3, above the top end of our guidance range and reflecting nearly 200 bps of Y/Y expansion. The Gross Margin improvement reflected a favorable revenue mix shift towards podcasts, marketplace activity, improved music advertising operating leverage, and Other Cost of Revenue efficiencies (e.g. payment fees, streaming delivery costs), which were partially offset by higher non-music and other content costs and publishing rate increases. Premium Gross Margin was 29.1% in Q3, up 182 bps Y/Y, and Ad-Supported Gross Margin was 10.5% in Q3, up 993 bps Y/Y. As a reminder, all content costs related to podcast investment are included in the Ad-Supported business for the current and historical periods.\n\nThese days Netflix enjoys a gross margin north of 40% but it was down at 27.2% [$983.4 million/$3,609.3 million] for 2012 per the 10-K from that year. Per the Spotify 3Q21 financial statements, their 9M21 gross margin is 26.9% [€1,879 million/€ 6,979 million] so they’re almost up to the 2012 level at Netflix. Spotify has come a long way from their gross margin of 11.6% for 2015 in their S-1 filing and they aim to keep going up to a level of 30% to 40%. CFO Paul Vogel answered a question about getting to the 40% level at the September 2021 Bank of America Conference. He noted that podcasts are a drag on gross margins right now but said that will flip as the business matures and they have more of a fixed cost structure than a variable cost structure:\n\n One is, we think advertising is going to continue to grow, continue to be a bigger part of our business. Right now, it’s 10% of our business. We think there’s opportunity to improve the ad margins on the music side alone, because right now they’re lower than their premium side. We think there’s an opportunity there. And then you delve into the podcasting side where, as you said,\n as more and more of our business can move over to a fixed cost nature versus variable costs nature, we think there’s a big opportunity to grow gross margin, on top of the podcasting business, and we sort of modeled that over a long period of time. And even though \n right now, the podcast business is actually a drag on gross margins. We think over time, that will flip and will be a benefit to gross margins, if not a significant benefit to the gross margin.\n\nAd Dollars Are Increasing\nQuarterly ad revenue grew 75% year-over-year:\nImage Source: 3Q21 financial statements\nPodcasts are a key part of ad revenue and the progress in this area was illustrated in the 3Q21 earnings call:\n\n We started our journey \n 3 years ago in podcasting with a catalog of about 185,000 podcasts. And we were really nowhere compared to the largest players in the industry.\n Today, we have 3.2 million podcastson the platform, a growth rate of over 1,500%. But despite the fact that we're still a relatively new entrant, previous data indicated we have become the top platform for podcast consumption, in 60-plus countries. And now, according to Edison research and our own internal sources, we recently became \n the number one podcast platform U.S. listeners use the most.\n\nIn the 3Q21 earnings call, it was noted that advertising revenues as a percentage of total revenues hit 13%. A question was asked by Rich Greenfield about the mix of revenues in five years and that mix shift impacting margins. CEO Daniel Ek answered by saying advertising should eventually be at least 20% of revenues and maybe even more than 40% of revenues in 5 to 10 years:\n\n Maybe I'll talk about the size of this and Paul can chime in on the impact on margins. I'm really excited about ads. I think we have had a tremendous quarter with 75% growth year-over-year.\n But this is just the beginning, as I stated in my opening remarks. Long term, I believe at the very least, this should be 20% of our revenues. But it might possibly be a lot more than that 30%, 40% even over the next 5 to 10 years.We're very excited about this being the second big revenue driver for Spotify and are obviously investing behind that both in product and platform improvements, but also as you may have read in hiring staff across the world that helps service these advertisers.\n\nCFO Vogel chimed in on the mix of revenues question with some answers as well, noting that margins were up almost 1,000 basis points on the ad side:\n\n And then from advertising generals, as Daniel said, it was up 75% in the quarter. We saw really nice, healthy gains on the music side. It was up significantly on the advertising side. And then podcasts advertising growth was in the triple digits. So we're seeing it across the board. What's really interesting is that the increased inventory is bringing increased demand. The demand is really high across all of our products. Podcasting is helping significantly on that. And then from a margin standpoint, obviously, the podcasting margin is helpful over time. We think having a fixed cost nature of the podcasting business and being able to grow that advertising will help margins. But additionally, just bringing more advertising into the platform, we're seeing the free music margins move up as well as you guys are aware, our free music margins are below our premium music margin. So to the extent that we can drive incremental advertising across not just podcasting, but music in general, that will help margins as well.\n\nValuation\nIn my March article, I thought Spotify was worth about $55 billion. Some of the numbers coming in since that time have been even better than expected. Also, management has increased the bottom end of the range for 4Q21 total revenue and gross margin. I now think Spotify is worth close to $60 billion. Today’s market cap is $58 billion based on the November 2nd share price of $298.08 and the 194,614,910 share count as of September 30, 2021 in the 2Q21 6-K filing. The enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap and I believe the stock is reasonably priced for the long run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPOT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2758,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/848762850"}