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2021-11-01

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Goldman Now Sees Fed Hiking Rates in July as Inflation Lingers<blockquote>由于通胀挥之不去，高盛目前预计美联储将在7月加息</blockquote>

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A second increase will follow in November 2022 and the central bank will then raise rates two times a year after that, they said.</p><p><blockquote>在周五晚些时候给客户的一份报告中，以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家表示，美联储在停止缩减大规模资产购买计划后，将很快将基准利率从零上调至0.25%。他们表示，第二次加息将于2022年11月进行，此后央行将每年加息两次。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues are predicted to announce next week that they will start slowing their buying of assets in November or December at a pace of around $15 billion a month. While policy makers have previously been divided over whether they expect to start raising rates in 2022 or 2023, investors have stepped up bets in recent weeks that inflation will force their hand next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事预计将于下周宣布，他们将在11月或12月开始以每月150亿美元左右的速度放缓购买资产。尽管政策制定者此前在是否预计在2022年或2023年开始加息的问题上存在分歧，但投资者最近几周加大了押注，认为通胀将在明年迫使他们出手。</blockquote></p><p> The Goldman economists said the main reason for their new forecast was they now expect inflation to prove more stubborn than they previously thought. They now expect consumer price inflation outside of food and energy costs to still be above 4% when the taper ends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家表示，他们做出新预测的主要原因是，他们现在预计通胀将比他们之前想象的更加顽固。他们现在预计，当缩减结束时，除食品和能源成本之外的消费者价格通胀率仍将高于4%。</blockquote></p><p> “We think this will make a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes the path of least resistance,” they said in the report.</p><p><blockquote>他们在报告中表示：“我们认为这将使从缩减到加息的无缝过渡成为阻力最小的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has goals for both inflation and employment. While the Fed has said it wants maximum employment before increasing rates, Hatzius and his colleagues said with inflation far above target and job availability high, officials will likely conclude most of any remaining labor force weakness is structural or voluntary.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对通胀和就业都有目标。尽管美联储表示希望在加息之前实现最大就业，但哈祖斯和他的同事表示，由于通胀远高于目标且就业机会较高，官员们可能会得出结论，剩余的劳动力疲软大多是结构性或自愿的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Now Sees Fed Hiking Rates in July as Inflation Lingers<blockquote>由于通胀挥之不去，高盛目前预计美联储将在7月加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Now Sees Fed Hiking Rates in July as Inflation Lingers<blockquote>由于通胀挥之不去，高盛目前预计美联储将在7月加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-01 08:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they now expect inflation will force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates next July, a year earlier than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——高盛集团经济学家表示，他们现在预计通胀将迫使美联储明年7月加息，比此前预期提前一年。</blockquote></p><p> In a report to clients late Friday, economists led by Jan Hatzius said the Fed will raise its benchmark from a range of zero to 0.25% soon after it stops tapering its massive asset-purchase program. A second increase will follow in November 2022 and the central bank will then raise rates two times a year after that, they said.</p><p><blockquote>在周五晚些时候给客户的一份报告中，以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家表示，美联储在停止缩减大规模资产购买计划后，将很快将基准利率从零上调至0.25%。他们表示，第二次加息将于2022年11月进行，此后央行将每年加息两次。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues are predicted to announce next week that they will start slowing their buying of assets in November or December at a pace of around $15 billion a month. While policy makers have previously been divided over whether they expect to start raising rates in 2022 or 2023, investors have stepped up bets in recent weeks that inflation will force their hand next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事预计将于下周宣布，他们将在11月或12月开始以每月150亿美元左右的速度放缓购买资产。尽管政策制定者此前在是否预计在2022年或2023年开始加息的问题上存在分歧，但投资者最近几周加大了押注，认为通胀将在明年迫使他们出手。</blockquote></p><p> The Goldman economists said the main reason for their new forecast was they now expect inflation to prove more stubborn than they previously thought. They now expect consumer price inflation outside of food and energy costs to still be above 4% when the taper ends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家表示，他们做出新预测的主要原因是，他们现在预计通胀将比他们之前想象的更加顽固。他们现在预计，当缩减结束时，除食品和能源成本之外的消费者价格通胀率仍将高于4%。</blockquote></p><p> “We think this will make a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes the path of least resistance,” they said in the report.</p><p><blockquote>他们在报告中表示：“我们认为这将使从缩减到加息的无缝过渡成为阻力最小的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has goals for both inflation and employment. While the Fed has said it wants maximum employment before increasing rates, Hatzius and his colleagues said with inflation far above target and job availability high, officials will likely conclude most of any remaining labor force weakness is structural or voluntary.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对通胀和就业都有目标。尽管美联储表示希望在加息之前实现最大就业，但哈祖斯和他的同事表示，由于通胀远高于目标且就业机会较高，官员们可能会得出结论，剩余的劳动力疲软大多是结构性或自愿的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-now-sees-fed-hiking-061946072.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-now-sees-fed-hiking-061946072.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159859530","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they now expect inflation will force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates next July, a year earlier than previously expected.\nIn a report to clients late Friday, economists led by Jan Hatzius said the Fed will raise its benchmark from a range of zero to 0.25% soon after it stops tapering its massive asset-purchase program. A second increase will follow in November 2022 and the central bank will then raise rates two times a year after that, they said.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues are predicted to announce next week that they will start slowing their buying of assets in November or December at a pace of around $15 billion a month. While policy makers have previously been divided over whether they expect to start raising rates in 2022 or 2023, investors have stepped up bets in recent weeks that inflation will force their hand next year.\nThe Goldman economists said the main reason for their new forecast was they now expect inflation to prove more stubborn than they previously thought. They now expect consumer price inflation outside of food and energy costs to still be above 4% when the taper ends.\n“We think this will make a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes the path of least resistance,” they said in the report.\nThe Fed has goals for both inflation and employment. While the Fed has said it wants maximum employment before increasing rates, Hatzius and his colleagues said with inflation far above target and job availability high, officials will likely conclude most of any remaining labor force weakness is structural or voluntary.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/849190123"}