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2021-11-01
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Apple: Great Reset<blockquote>苹果：伟大的重置</blockquote>
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The company benefitted substantially from the COVID lockdowns pushing workers and students into buying technology gadgets for the home. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock until the market has reset exceptions on Apple to the reality of a slow growth behemoth.</p><p><blockquote>在报告了非常令人失望的九月份季度后，<b>苹果</b>(AAPL)投资者现在必须重新调整对这家科技巨头的看法。该公司从新冠疫情封锁中受益匪浅，迫使工人和学生为家庭购买科技设备。我对该股的投资观点保持中立，直到市场将苹果的例外情况重新设定为缓慢增长的庞然大物的现实。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Normalization Reset</b></p><p><blockquote><b>归一化复位</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite wide knowledge that revenues were pulled forward during the last FY, 5G iPhones were pushed into the year and supply chain issues will constrain current results, the average analyst is still very bullish on Apple. Even with all of these acknowledged headwinds, the stock still trades near all-time highs around $150.</p><p><blockquote>尽管众所周知，上一财年收入有所增长，5G iPhone被推迟到今年，供应链问题将限制当前的业绩，但普通分析师仍然非常看好苹果。尽管存在所有这些公认的不利因素，该股的交易价格仍接近150美元左右的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> For FQ4'21, Apple missed analyst revenue targets by a wide $1.6 billion for the first quarterly miss since 2017. The tech giant saw most Product categories miss estimates, but the main issue with iPhone revenues missing the consensus $68.7 billion target by a large $3.6 billion. Most important, the quarter was already the last one with massive pulled forward revenues combined with the 5G iPhone benefit, as the big miss still corresponded with revenue growing 29%.</p><p><blockquote>对于21年第四季度，苹果的收入目标相差16亿美元，这是自2017年以来的首次季度收入目标。这家科技巨头的大多数产品类别都没有达到预期，但iPhone收入的主要问题是，它比687亿美元的共识目标低了36亿美元。最重要的是，本季度已经是最后一个收入大幅增长并结合5G iPhone优势的季度，因为大失误仍然与收入增长29%相对应。</blockquote></p><p> The quarterly revenues were even impacted by supply constraints hitting the September quarter numbers. Per CFO Luca Maestri on the FQ4'21 earnings call, the impact will be far higher in the current quarter:</p><p><blockquote>季度收入甚至受到9月份季度数据供应限制的影响。根据首席财务官Luca Maestri在FQ 4'21收益看涨期权中的说法，本季度的影响将高得多：</blockquote></p><p> As we mentioned earlier, during the September quarter, supply constraints impacted our revenue by around $6 billion. We estimate the impact from supply constraints will be larger during the December quarter. Despite this challenge, we are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter. Now, this revenue pushed out into FY22 does help results going forward. Apple would've had a far higher hurdle this year with the September quarter results being a massive blowout number reaching topping $89 billion. The company would've reported FY21 sales of $372 billion and those $6 billion in sales wouldn't help the FY22 results. The actual results for the year would be much closer to breakeven at $373 billion compared to the forecasts for nearly 4% growth.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前提到的，在9月份季度，供应限制使我们的收入影响了约60亿美元。我们估计12月份季度供应限制的影响将更大。尽管面临这一挑战，我们仍看到对我们产品的高需求，并预计将实现非常稳健的同比收入增长，并在12月季度创下新的收入记录。现在，这一收入推迟到2022财年确实有助于未来的业绩。苹果今年将面临更高的障碍，9月份季度业绩将出现巨大井喷，达到890亿美元以上。该公司报告的2021财年销售额为3720亿美元，而这60亿美元的销售额对2022财年的业绩没有帮助。与近4%增长的预测相比，今年的实际业绩将更接近3,730亿美元的盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9996ab9668ee4c5755ead167b0c9298\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SA earnings estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SA盈利预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even still, the forecast is for a strong December quarter followed my miserable quarterly numbers in at least the March and June quarters. Anyone looking at a 10-year revenue chart for Apple will quickly recognize the massive revenue pulled froward. Apple already has a history of volatile revenues due iPhone product cycles with a period of 25% growth around the FY15 iPhone launch followed by negative growth in FY16. The pattern was again repeated in FY19 where Apple reported limited growth the year after the FY18 iPhone boost.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，在我至少在3月和6月季度的季度数据惨淡之后，预计12月季度将表现强劲。任何查看苹果10年收入图表的人都会很快意识到其巨额收入的增长。由于iPhone产品周期的影响，苹果的收入已经出现了波动的历史，在2015财年iPhone发布前后增长了25%，随后在2016财年出现了负增长。这种模式在2019财年再次重演，苹果在2018财年iPhone增长后的第二年报告增长有限。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d963de5212388f8f6d23a3e42607704d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 5G iPhone cycle was already expected to boost FY21 revenues and the COVID revenue pulled forward just exacerbated the normal cycles. The tech giant has shifted to Services in order to cut out the volatility from Product sales, but COVID actually made services somewhat volatile as well.</p><p><blockquote>5G iPhone周期预计将提振2021财年的收入，而新冠疫情带来的收入只会加剧正常周期。这家科技巨头已经转向服务，以减少产品销售的波动性，但COVID实际上也使服务变得有些不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Apple just reported a quarter where Services revenues grew a surprisingly strong 26%. Unfortunately though, Services revenues were the second largest bucket, but the amount was only 22% of total sales. And this was a quarter when supply constraints held back Product revenues by $6 billion, yet Services still didn't dictate the business path.</p><p><blockquote>苹果刚刚公布了一个季度的服务收入增长了26%，令人惊讶。但不幸的是，服务收入是第二大收入，但金额仅占总销售额的22%。在这个季度，供应限制使产品收入减少了60亿美元，但服务仍然没有决定业务路径。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52425199d9af0fa3e56fd0136ec9fc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple FQ4'21 earnings release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果21年第四季度收益发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The recent App Store court ruling on payments is even forecast to impact Services growth going forward. Apple faces lower growth for App Store revenue with the inclusion of alternative payment methods in apps and the company already reducing fees for some apps.</p><p><blockquote>最近App Store法院关于支付的裁决甚至预计将影响未来的服务增长。随着应用程序中包含替代支付方式，并且该公司已经降低了一些应用程序的费用，苹果面临着应用程序商店收入增长放缓的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wildly Bullish</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疯狂看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite all of these issues with the reset of the business, analysts are uniformly bullish on the stock. According to<i>TipRanks</i>data where only analyst ratings updated in the last 3 months are included, 19 analysts have Buy ratings and only 6 analysts have Hold ratings. No analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Apple during this period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管业务重置存在所有这些问题，分析师仍一致看好该股。根据<i>提示排名</i>仅包括过去3个月更新的分析师评级的数据，19名分析师给予买入评级，只有6名分析师给予持有评级。在此期间，没有分析师维持苹果的卖出评级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635b6f7189a55f916fb18f2d1a413dc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now that Apple has missed quarterly revenue targets and reset the strong holiday quarter to include sizable supply disruptions, analysts are wildly bullish with the stock still trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates at $5.67. Even the analyst community hasn't outlined a scenario where Apple generates premium growth rates going forward, so the disconnect is odd.</p><p><blockquote>既然苹果未能实现季度收入目标，并将强劲的假日季度重新设定为包括大规模的供应中断，分析师们非常看好该股的交易价格仍是22财年每股收益预期的26倍，即5.67美元。就连分析师界也没有概述苹果未来产生溢价增长率的情景，因此这种脱节很奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> The average analyst target of nearly $169 would offer 13% upside and leave the stock at nearly 30x FY22 EPS targets. An investor shouldn't take accept this limited return forecast considering the weak revenue growth picture could reset the stock multiple 20% lower or more. The risk/reward scenario isn't very rewarding for Apple at $150 when a 20% dip leaves the stock still trading at 21x FY22 EPS forecasts and the upside is predicted at only 13%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的平均目标接近169美元，将提供13%的上涨空间，使该股接近22财年每股收益目标的30倍。投资者不应接受这一有限的回报预测，因为疲弱的收入增长前景可能会使该股市盈率下降20%或更多。对于150美元的苹果来说，风险/回报情景并不是很有回报，因为下跌20%，该股的交易价格仍是22财年每股收益预测的21倍，预计上涨空间仅为13%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The key investor takeaway is that while Apple remains a market leader, the company is now going through the normal cyclical revenue dips from a Product focused business. The COVID lockdowns pulled forward revenues more than normal leading to what amounts as a great reset in FY22. Investors should avoid the stock at $150 with the downside risk larger than any upside potential in the next year or more.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，虽然苹果仍然是市场领导者，但该公司目前正在经历以产品为中心的业务正常的周期性收入下降。新冠疫情封锁导致收入超出正常水平，导致2022财年出现重大重置。投资者应避开150美元的股票，因为未来一年或更长时间的下行风险大于任何上行潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Great Reset<blockquote>苹果：伟大的重置</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Great Reset<blockquote>苹果：伟大的重置</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple missed revenue estimates for FQ4'21 and faces major headwinds to growth going forward.</li> <li>The tech giant expects supply chain issues to lead to a greater than $6 billion impact to December quarter revenues.</li> <li>Analysts forecast minimal revenue growth over the next 3 years, as Apple faces the typical weak Product cycles combined with massive sales pulled forward into FY21.</li> <li>The stock trades at a stretched forward PE ratio of 26x while even very bullish analysts only forecast 13% upside leading to a mismatched risk/reward scenario.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果21年第四季度的收入未达到预期，未来增长面临重大阻力。</li><li>这家科技巨头预计供应链问题将对12月份季度收入造成超过60亿美元的影响。</li><li>分析师预测未来3年收入增长微乎其微，因为苹果面临着典型的疲弱产品周期以及2021财年的大规模销售。</li><li>该股的远期市盈率为26倍，而即使是非常乐观的分析师也仅预测上涨13%，导致风险/回报不匹配的情况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After reporting a highly disappointing September quarter,<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) investors now have to reset their view on the tech giant. The company benefitted substantially from the COVID lockdowns pushing workers and students into buying technology gadgets for the home. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock until the market has reset exceptions on Apple to the reality of a slow growth behemoth.</p><p><blockquote>在报告了非常令人失望的九月份季度后，<b>苹果</b>(AAPL)投资者现在必须重新调整对这家科技巨头的看法。该公司从新冠疫情封锁中受益匪浅，迫使工人和学生为家庭购买科技设备。我对该股的投资观点保持中立，直到市场将苹果的例外情况重新设定为缓慢增长的庞然大物的现实。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Normalization Reset</b></p><p><blockquote><b>归一化复位</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite wide knowledge that revenues were pulled forward during the last FY, 5G iPhones were pushed into the year and supply chain issues will constrain current results, the average analyst is still very bullish on Apple. Even with all of these acknowledged headwinds, the stock still trades near all-time highs around $150.</p><p><blockquote>尽管众所周知，上一财年收入有所增长，5G iPhone被推迟到今年，供应链问题将限制当前的业绩，但普通分析师仍然非常看好苹果。尽管存在所有这些公认的不利因素，该股的交易价格仍接近150美元左右的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> For FQ4'21, Apple missed analyst revenue targets by a wide $1.6 billion for the first quarterly miss since 2017. The tech giant saw most Product categories miss estimates, but the main issue with iPhone revenues missing the consensus $68.7 billion target by a large $3.6 billion. Most important, the quarter was already the last one with massive pulled forward revenues combined with the 5G iPhone benefit, as the big miss still corresponded with revenue growing 29%.</p><p><blockquote>对于21年第四季度，苹果的收入目标相差16亿美元，这是自2017年以来的首次季度收入目标。这家科技巨头的大多数产品类别都没有达到预期，但iPhone收入的主要问题是，它比687亿美元的共识目标低了36亿美元。最重要的是，本季度已经是最后一个收入大幅增长并结合5G iPhone优势的季度，因为大失误仍然与收入增长29%相对应。</blockquote></p><p> The quarterly revenues were even impacted by supply constraints hitting the September quarter numbers. Per CFO Luca Maestri on the FQ4'21 earnings call, the impact will be far higher in the current quarter:</p><p><blockquote>季度收入甚至受到9月份季度数据供应限制的影响。根据首席财务官Luca Maestri在FQ 4'21收益看涨期权中的说法，本季度的影响将高得多：</blockquote></p><p> As we mentioned earlier, during the September quarter, supply constraints impacted our revenue by around $6 billion. We estimate the impact from supply constraints will be larger during the December quarter. Despite this challenge, we are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter. Now, this revenue pushed out into FY22 does help results going forward. Apple would've had a far higher hurdle this year with the September quarter results being a massive blowout number reaching topping $89 billion. The company would've reported FY21 sales of $372 billion and those $6 billion in sales wouldn't help the FY22 results. The actual results for the year would be much closer to breakeven at $373 billion compared to the forecasts for nearly 4% growth.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前提到的，在9月份季度，供应限制使我们的收入影响了约60亿美元。我们估计12月份季度供应限制的影响将更大。尽管面临这一挑战，我们仍看到对我们产品的高需求，并预计将实现非常稳健的同比收入增长，并在12月季度创下新的收入记录。现在，这一收入推迟到2022财年确实有助于未来的业绩。苹果今年将面临更高的障碍，9月份季度业绩将出现巨大井喷，达到890亿美元以上。该公司报告的2021财年销售额为3720亿美元，而这60亿美元的销售额对2022财年的业绩没有帮助。与近4%增长的预测相比，今年的实际业绩将更接近3,730亿美元的盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9996ab9668ee4c5755ead167b0c9298\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SA earnings estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SA盈利预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even still, the forecast is for a strong December quarter followed my miserable quarterly numbers in at least the March and June quarters. Anyone looking at a 10-year revenue chart for Apple will quickly recognize the massive revenue pulled froward. Apple already has a history of volatile revenues due iPhone product cycles with a period of 25% growth around the FY15 iPhone launch followed by negative growth in FY16. The pattern was again repeated in FY19 where Apple reported limited growth the year after the FY18 iPhone boost.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，在我至少在3月和6月季度的季度数据惨淡之后，预计12月季度将表现强劲。任何查看苹果10年收入图表的人都会很快意识到其巨额收入的增长。由于iPhone产品周期的影响，苹果的收入已经出现了波动的历史，在2015财年iPhone发布前后增长了25%，随后在2016财年出现了负增长。这种模式在2019财年再次重演，苹果在2018财年iPhone增长后的第二年报告增长有限。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d963de5212388f8f6d23a3e42607704d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 5G iPhone cycle was already expected to boost FY21 revenues and the COVID revenue pulled forward just exacerbated the normal cycles. The tech giant has shifted to Services in order to cut out the volatility from Product sales, but COVID actually made services somewhat volatile as well.</p><p><blockquote>5G iPhone周期预计将提振2021财年的收入，而新冠疫情带来的收入只会加剧正常周期。这家科技巨头已经转向服务，以减少产品销售的波动性，但COVID实际上也使服务变得有些不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Apple just reported a quarter where Services revenues grew a surprisingly strong 26%. Unfortunately though, Services revenues were the second largest bucket, but the amount was only 22% of total sales. And this was a quarter when supply constraints held back Product revenues by $6 billion, yet Services still didn't dictate the business path.</p><p><blockquote>苹果刚刚公布了一个季度的服务收入增长了26%，令人惊讶。但不幸的是，服务收入是第二大收入，但金额仅占总销售额的22%。在这个季度，供应限制使产品收入减少了60亿美元，但服务仍然没有决定业务路径。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52425199d9af0fa3e56fd0136ec9fc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple FQ4'21 earnings release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果21年第四季度收益发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The recent App Store court ruling on payments is even forecast to impact Services growth going forward. Apple faces lower growth for App Store revenue with the inclusion of alternative payment methods in apps and the company already reducing fees for some apps.</p><p><blockquote>最近App Store法院关于支付的裁决甚至预计将影响未来的服务增长。随着应用程序中包含替代支付方式，并且该公司已经降低了一些应用程序的费用，苹果面临着应用程序商店收入增长放缓的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wildly Bullish</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疯狂看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite all of these issues with the reset of the business, analysts are uniformly bullish on the stock. According to<i>TipRanks</i>data where only analyst ratings updated in the last 3 months are included, 19 analysts have Buy ratings and only 6 analysts have Hold ratings. No analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Apple during this period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管业务重置存在所有这些问题，分析师仍一致看好该股。根据<i>提示排名</i>仅包括过去3个月更新的分析师评级的数据，19名分析师给予买入评级，只有6名分析师给予持有评级。在此期间，没有分析师维持苹果的卖出评级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635b6f7189a55f916fb18f2d1a413dc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now that Apple has missed quarterly revenue targets and reset the strong holiday quarter to include sizable supply disruptions, analysts are wildly bullish with the stock still trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates at $5.67. Even the analyst community hasn't outlined a scenario where Apple generates premium growth rates going forward, so the disconnect is odd.</p><p><blockquote>既然苹果未能实现季度收入目标，并将强劲的假日季度重新设定为包括大规模的供应中断，分析师们非常看好该股的交易价格仍是22财年每股收益预期的26倍，即5.67美元。就连分析师界也没有概述苹果未来产生溢价增长率的情景，因此这种脱节很奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> The average analyst target of nearly $169 would offer 13% upside and leave the stock at nearly 30x FY22 EPS targets. An investor shouldn't take accept this limited return forecast considering the weak revenue growth picture could reset the stock multiple 20% lower or more. The risk/reward scenario isn't very rewarding for Apple at $150 when a 20% dip leaves the stock still trading at 21x FY22 EPS forecasts and the upside is predicted at only 13%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的平均目标接近169美元，将提供13%的上涨空间，使该股接近22财年每股收益目标的30倍。投资者不应接受这一有限的回报预测，因为疲弱的收入增长前景可能会使该股市盈率下降20%或更多。对于150美元的苹果来说，风险/回报情景并不是很有回报，因为下跌20%，该股的交易价格仍是22财年每股收益预测的21倍，预计上涨空间仅为13%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The key investor takeaway is that while Apple remains a market leader, the company is now going through the normal cyclical revenue dips from a Product focused business. The COVID lockdowns pulled forward revenues more than normal leading to what amounts as a great reset in FY22. Investors should avoid the stock at $150 with the downside risk larger than any upside potential in the next year or more.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，虽然苹果仍然是市场领导者，但该公司目前正在经历以产品为中心的业务正常的周期性收入下降。新冠疫情封锁导致收入超出正常水平，导致2022财年出现重大重置。投资者应避开150美元的股票，因为未来一年或更长时间的下行风险大于任何上行潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463955-apple-great-reset\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463955-apple-great-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176397702","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple missed revenue estimates for FQ4'21 and faces major headwinds to growth going forward.\nThe tech giant expects supply chain issues to lead to a greater than $6 billion impact to December quarter revenues.\nAnalysts forecast minimal revenue growth over the next 3 years, as Apple faces the typical weak Product cycles combined with massive sales pulled forward into FY21.\nThe stock trades at a stretched forward PE ratio of 26x while even very bullish analysts only forecast 13% upside leading to a mismatched risk/reward scenario.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter reporting a highly disappointing September quarter,Apple(AAPL) investors now have to reset their view on the tech giant. The company benefitted substantially from the COVID lockdowns pushing workers and students into buying technology gadgets for the home. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock until the market has reset exceptions on Apple to the reality of a slow growth behemoth.\nNormalization Reset\nDespite wide knowledge that revenues were pulled forward during the last FY, 5G iPhones were pushed into the year and supply chain issues will constrain current results, the average analyst is still very bullish on Apple. Even with all of these acknowledged headwinds, the stock still trades near all-time highs around $150.\nFor FQ4'21, Apple missed analyst revenue targets by a wide $1.6 billion for the first quarterly miss since 2017. The tech giant saw most Product categories miss estimates, but the main issue with iPhone revenues missing the consensus $68.7 billion target by a large $3.6 billion. Most important, the quarter was already the last one with massive pulled forward revenues combined with the 5G iPhone benefit, as the big miss still corresponded with revenue growing 29%.\nThe quarterly revenues were even impacted by supply constraints hitting the September quarter numbers. Per CFO Luca Maestri on the FQ4'21 earnings call, the impact will be far higher in the current quarter:\n\n As we mentioned earlier, during the September quarter, supply constraints impacted our revenue by around $6 billion. We estimate the impact from supply constraints will be larger during the December quarter. Despite this challenge, we are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter.\n\nNow, this revenue pushed out into FY22 does help results going forward. Apple would've had a far higher hurdle this year with the September quarter results being a massive blowout number reaching topping $89 billion. The company would've reported FY21 sales of $372 billion and those $6 billion in sales wouldn't help the FY22 results. The actual results for the year would be much closer to breakeven at $373 billion compared to the forecasts for nearly 4% growth.\nSource: SA earnings estimates\nEven still, the forecast is for a strong December quarter followed my miserable quarterly numbers in at least the March and June quarters. Anyone looking at a 10-year revenue chart for Apple will quickly recognize the massive revenue pulled froward. Apple already has a history of volatile revenues due iPhone product cycles with a period of 25% growth around the FY15 iPhone launch followed by negative growth in FY16. The pattern was again repeated in FY19 where Apple reported limited growth the year after the FY18 iPhone boost.\nData by YCharts\nThe 5G iPhone cycle was already expected to boost FY21 revenues and the COVID revenue pulled forward just exacerbated the normal cycles. The tech giant has shifted to Services in order to cut out the volatility from Product sales, but COVID actually made services somewhat volatile as well.\nApple just reported a quarter where Services revenues grew a surprisingly strong 26%. Unfortunately though, Services revenues were the second largest bucket, but the amount was only 22% of total sales. And this was a quarter when supply constraints held back Product revenues by $6 billion, yet Services still didn't dictate the business path.\nSource: Apple FQ4'21 earnings release\nThe recent App Store court ruling on payments is even forecast to impact Services growth going forward. Apple faces lower growth for App Store revenue with the inclusion of alternative payment methods in apps and the company already reducing fees for some apps.\nWildly Bullish\nDespite all of these issues with the reset of the business, analysts are uniformly bullish on the stock. According toTipRanksdata where only analyst ratings updated in the last 3 months are included, 19 analysts have Buy ratings and only 6 analysts have Hold ratings. No analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Apple during this period.\nSource: TipRanks\nNow that Apple has missed quarterly revenue targets and reset the strong holiday quarter to include sizable supply disruptions, analysts are wildly bullish with the stock still trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates at $5.67. Even the analyst community hasn't outlined a scenario where Apple generates premium growth rates going forward, so the disconnect is odd.\nThe average analyst target of nearly $169 would offer 13% upside and leave the stock at nearly 30x FY22 EPS targets. An investor shouldn't take accept this limited return forecast considering the weak revenue growth picture could reset the stock multiple 20% lower or more. The risk/reward scenario isn't very rewarding for Apple at $150 when a 20% dip leaves the stock still trading at 21x FY22 EPS forecasts and the upside is predicted at only 13%.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that while Apple remains a market leader, the company is now going through the normal cyclical revenue dips from a Product focused business. The COVID lockdowns pulled forward revenues more than normal leading to what amounts as a great reset in FY22. Investors should avoid the stock at $150 with the downside risk larger than any upside potential in the next year or more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/849480618"}
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