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2021-10-19

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Apple: The Past Decade Can't Be Repeated<blockquote>苹果：过去十年不能重演</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":850554773,"tweetId":"850554773","gmtCreate":1634610695167,"gmtModify":1634610695372,"author":{"id":3577945319352371,"idStr":"3577945319352371","authorId":3577945319352371,"authorIdStr":"3577945319352371","name":"R2D2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82ed09a21fdbec2d56ea0aca3b5342","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Agree</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Agree</body></html>","text":"Agree","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850554773","repostId":1175707103,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175707103","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634610155,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175707103?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 10:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Past Decade Can't Be Repeated<blockquote>苹果：过去十年不能重演</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175707103","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nA return of more than 860% in 10 years made many shareholders happy.\nThis return was based ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>A return of more than 860% in 10 years made many shareholders happy.</li> <li>This return was based on double-digit growth rates, aggressive buybacks and a solid customer base.</li> <li>However, slowing growth, a worsened balance sheet, competition and, most important, Apple's valuation will likely lead to decreasing returns in the near future.</li> <li>Even if new products are excellent and stand out from competitors, it will be very hard to achieve similar returns for the stock.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48faf1320d58a68f652bbf7b8e93adf\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>10年超过860%的回报率让不少股民欣喜不已。</li><li>这一回报是基于两位数的增长率、积极的回购和坚实的客户群。</li><li>然而，增长放缓、资产负债表恶化、竞争以及最重要的苹果估值可能会在不久的将来导致回报下降。</li><li>即使新产品非常优秀，从竞争对手中脱颖而出，股票也很难获得类似的回报。</li></ul>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> 1. Looking back at an impressive decade<blockquote>1. 回顾令人印象深刻的十年</blockquote> Apple's (AAPL) stock showed a stunning performance over the last 10 years.<blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 股票在过去 10 年中表现出色。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f670db7ff8b0f2f186fa8dad803627f7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The stock returned 861% or 25.4% annually, which is an above average return compared to the S&amp;P 500 with just about 263%. Apple has a stunning growth record over the past decade which is one reason for the long rally. Revenues grew from $108 bn. in 2011 to expected revenues in 2021 of $365 bn. (+238%) while net income increased from $26 bn. to $95 bn. in 2021 (+265%).<blockquote>该股的年回报率为 861% 或 25.4%，高于标普500约 263% 的平均回报率。苹果在过去十年中有着惊人的增长记录，这是长期反弹的原因之一。收入从 1080 亿美元增长。2011 年至 2021 年收入预计为 3650 亿美元。（+238%），而净利润则从 260 亿美元增长。高达950亿美元。2021年（+265%）。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>2012</td> <td>2013</td> <td>2014</td> <td>2015</td> <td>2016</td> <td>2017</td> <td>2018</td> <td>2019</td> <td>2020</td> <td>2021 (e)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue (bn. USD)</td> <td>108</td> <td>156</td> <td>171</td> <td>183</td> <td>231</td> <td>214</td> <td>229</td> <td>266</td> <td>260</td> <td>274</td> <td>365</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net income (bn. USD)</td> <td>26</td> <td>42</td> <td>37</td> <td>40</td> <td>53</td> <td>46</td> <td>48</td> <td>60</td> <td>55</td> <td>57</td> <td>95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EPS*(USD)</td> <td>1.56</td> <td>2.51</td> <td>2.22</td> <td>2.38</td> <td>3.21</td> <td>2.75</td> <td>2.91</td> <td>3.57</td> <td>3.33</td> <td>3.45</td> <td>5.7</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> [*EPS numbers adjusted for stock splits in 2015 (7:1) and 2020 (4:1), calculation with 16.63 billion shares]<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td>2012</td><td>2013</td><td>2014</td><td>2015</td><td>2016</td><td>2017</td><td>2018</td><td>2019</td><td>2020</td><td>2021年(e)</td></tr><tr><td>收入（十亿美元）</td><td>108</td><td>156</td><td>171</td><td>183</td><td>231</td><td>214</td><td>229</td><td>266</td><td>260</td><td>274</td><td>365</td></tr><tr><td>净利润（十亿美元）</td><td>26</td><td>42</td><td>37</td><td>40</td><td>53</td><td>46</td><td>48</td><td>60</td><td>55</td><td>57</td><td>95</td></tr><tr><td>每股收益*（美元）</td><td>1.56</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.22</td><td>2.38</td><td>3.21</td><td>2.75</td><td>2.91</td><td>3.57</td><td>3.33</td><td>3.45</td><td>5.7</td></tr></tbody></table>[*2015 年 (7:1) 和 2020 年 (4:1) 股票分割调整后的每股收益数据，以 166.3 亿股计算]</blockquote> 2. Aggressive buybacks<blockquote>2. 积极回购</blockquote> Although the company's fundamental growth was great, the stock's gain was even more phenomenal. A second reason were permanent and aggressive stock buybacks by Apple. In2011, Apple had 926 million shares outstanding, according to the quarterly report from June. Adjusted for the two stock splits, the number should have increased to 25.93 bn. shares. Surprisingly, Apple had just 16.63 bn. shares outstanding at the end of June 2021, which means that share count was reduced by nearly 36% in just one decade. The buybacks definitely contributed to the stock's stellar performance, but the higher the stock climbed over the years, the more Apple had to pay to buy back shares. The buybacks are reflected in the company's balance sheet which has worsened significantly.<blockquote>尽管公司的基本面增长很大，但股票的涨幅更为惊人。第二个原因是苹果永久而积极的股票回购。根据 6 月份的季度报告，2011 年苹果有 9.26 亿股流通股。根据两次股票分割进行调整后，这个数字应该会增加到259.3亿。股份。令人惊讶的是，苹果只有166.3亿。截至 2021 年 6 月底，已发行股票，这意味着股票数量在短短十年内减少了近 36%。回购无疑对该股的出色表现做出了贡献，但多年来该股涨幅越高，苹果回购股票所需支付的费用就越多。回购反映在公司的资产负债表上，而资产负债表已经显着恶化。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>2012</td> <td>2013</td> <td>2014</td> <td>2015</td> <td>2016</td> <td>2017</td> <td>2018</td> <td>2019</td> <td>2020</td> <td>2021</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Equity (bn. USD)</td> <td>70</td> <td>118</td> <td>124</td> <td>111</td> <td>119</td> <td>128</td> <td>134</td> <td>107</td> <td>90</td> <td>65</td> <td>64</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Liabilities (bn. USD)</td> <td>37</td> <td>58</td> <td>83</td> <td>120</td> <td>171</td> <td>193</td> <td>241</td> <td>259</td> <td>248</td> <td>259</td> <td>265</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Equity ratio (%)</td> <td>65</td> <td>67</td> <td>60</td> <td>48</td> <td>41</td> <td>40</td> <td>36</td> <td>29</td> <td>27</td> <td>20</td> <td>19.5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Equity and equity ratio are in an obvious downward trend while liabilities have increased. However, the deterioration of the balance sheet hasn't had an impact yet on Apple's power to generate and increase revenues and earnings. With $95 bn. net income this year, Apple shows a return on equity (ROE) of 148% (!), a number not many companies achieve. So while the balance sheet is nothing to worry about in regard to Apple's business, it will have an impact on the company's ability to buy back shares. Even if Apple spends all its net income on buybacks (which would be a new annual buyback record), this number would just represent 3.9% of Apple's total market cap of $2.41 trillion. As a result, the company must spend more cash in the future to buy back the same percentage of shares as it did during the last ten years.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td>2012</td><td>2013</td><td>2014</td><td>2015</td><td>2016</td><td>2017</td><td>2018</td><td>2019</td><td>2020</td><td>2021</td></tr><tr><td>权益（十亿美元）</td><td>70</td><td>118</td><td>124</td><td>111</td><td>119</td><td>128</td><td>134</td><td>107</td><td>90</td><td>65</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>负债（十亿美元）</td><td>37</td><td>58</td><td>83</td><td>120</td><td>171</td><td>193</td><td>241</td><td>259</td><td>248</td><td>259</td><td>265</td></tr><tr><td>权益比率（%）</td><td>65</td><td>67</td><td>60</td><td>48</td><td>41</td><td>40</td><td>36</td><td>29</td><td>27</td><td>20</td><td>19.5</td></tr></tbody></table>权益和权益比率呈明显下降趋势，而负债则有所增加。然而，资产负债表的恶化尚未对苹果产生和增加收入和盈利的能力产生影响。950亿美元。净利润 今年，苹果的股本回报率 (ROE) 为 148% (!)，这是很多公司都没有达到的数字。因此，虽然资产负债表对于苹果的业务来说没什么好担心的，但它将对该公司回购股票的能力产生影响。即使苹果将其所有净收入用于回购（这将创下新的年度回购记录），这一数字也仅占苹果2.41万亿美元总市值的3.9%。因此，该公司未来必须花费更多现金来回购与过去十年相同比例的股票。</blockquote> 3. Valuation<blockquote>3.估值</blockquote> Apple currently trades for $145 per share (as of 10/18/21) and has a total market cap of $2.41 trillion. EPS for 2021 is about $5.7, so the P/E ratio is 25.4. The P/B ratio climbed to a whopping 37.6 (which can be partly explained by buybacks). High P/B ratios are not unusual for tech companies (many patents, intangible assets and brand value do not count for equity), but the number for Apple is really extreme. Cash flow per share of around $6.5 per share results in a P/CF ratio of 22. The average EPS of the last decade was $3.2. Hence, the CAPE ratio for Apple is 45.3, a number which also indicates an ambitious valuation.<blockquote>苹果目前的交易价格为每股 145 美元（截至 2021 年 10 月 18 日），总市值为 2.41 万亿美元。2021年每股收益约为5.7美元，因此市盈率为25.4。市净率攀升至高达 37.6（部分原因可以用回购来解释）。高市净率对于科技公司来说并不罕见（许多专利、无形资产和品牌价值不计入股权），但苹果的这个数字确实非常极端。每股现金流约为每股 6.5 美元，市盈率为 22。过去十年的平均每股收益为 3.2 美元。因此，苹果的 CAPE 比率为 45.3，这个数字也表明了雄心勃勃的估值。</blockquote> All these numbers indicate that future returns are likely to be lower than the returns of the past decade.<blockquote>所有这些数字都表明，未来的回报很可能低于过去十年的回报。</blockquote> 4. Growth perspectives and product pipeline<blockquote>4.增长前景和产品管线</blockquote> In the past decade, Apple grew its net income by 13.8% annually and expects an increase of more than 66% this year. In the third quarter 2021, Apple&nbsp;increased its computer sales by 7.4%&nbsp;and increased its market share to 8.6% of worldwide sales. Smartphone sales decreased in the third quarter 2021 by 6% because of the chip shortage, but Apple&nbsp;increased its market share from 12% to 15%&nbsp;due to strong demand for the iPhone 13, which means that shipments grew by ca. 17% YoY. All in all, the market data shows that consumers strongly demand Apple products (MacBook, iPhone, iPad etc.) and also accept higher expenditures for high-quality products. However, the chip shortage will likely hurt Apple's sales in the quarters to come. Hence, it will be difficult for Apple to grow next year as revenues will take a hit. In the long term, Apple must differentiate from its competitors Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY,OTCPK:LNVGF),HP Inc. (HPQ) andXiaomi(OTCPK:XIACF,OTCPK:XIACY) with special features and design, because some consumers (who are not pure Apple fans) will prefer price over features and design. I expect revenues to be flat next year or even lower than 2021 when the post-pandemic computer boom will flatten. The average growth rate for net income and revenue in the next decade is probably lower than in the past decade.<blockquote>过去十年，苹果的净利润每年增长13.8%，预计今年将增长66%以上。2021年第三季度，苹果电脑销量增长7.4%，市场份额占全球销量的8.6%。由于芯片短缺，2021年第三季度智能手机销量下降了6%，但由于对iPhone 13的强劲需求，苹果将其市场份额从12%增加到15%，这意味着出货量同比增长约17%。总而言之，市场数据显示消费者对苹果产品（MacBook、iPhone、iPad等）的需求强烈，同时也接受了高质量产品的更高支出。然而，芯片短缺可能会损害苹果未来几个季度的销售。因此，由于收入将受到打击，苹果明年将很难增长。从长远来看，苹果必须通过特殊功能和设计与其竞争对手三星（OTC:SSNLF）、联想（OTCPK:LNVGY、OTCPK:LNVGF）、惠普公司（HPQ）和小米（OTCPK:XIACF、OTCPK:XIACY）区分开来，因为一些消费者（不是纯粹的苹果粉丝）会更喜欢价格而不是功能和设计。我预计明年收入将持平，甚至低于 2021 年，届时大流行后的计算机繁荣将持平。未来十年净利润和收入的平均增长率可能低于过去十年。</blockquote> 5. Conclusion<blockquote>5. 结论</blockquote> Since Apple's total market cap is already very high, it will be harder to boost share performance via buybacks. Consequently, the stock's total performance in the next decade (2022-2032) will be lower than the performance in the 2010s, especially because the stock has already outperformed Apple's fundamental performance.<blockquote>由于苹果的总市值已经很高，通过回购来提升股票表现将更加困难。因此，该股未来十年（2022-2032年）的整体表现将低于2010年代的表现，特别是因为该股的表现已经超过了苹果的基本面表现。</blockquote> My conservative estimate is a net income growth rate of 5-7% p.a. and a buyback yield of just 1.5-2.0%. The earnings yield for the stock is currently 4% (P/E ratio of 25). Hence, the total annual return for the next ten years will possibly be between 5.5-9.0% which is significantly lower than the 25.4% from 2011-2021.<blockquote>我的保守估计是每年净利润增长率为5-7%，回购收益率仅为1.5-2.0%。该股目前的市盈率为4%（市盈率为25）。因此，未来十年的总年回报率可能在5.5-9.0%之间，远低于2011-2021年的25.4%。</blockquote> All in all, even at a current stock price of $145 per share, shareholders can expect a positive return, but adjusted for inflation, Apple will disappoint in the future compared to the last ten years. Due to a combination of lower growth (high competition, chip shortage), a lower buyback yield and a higher inflation which will increase the company's costs, Apple's stock will no longer outperform the market despite a promising product pipeline and a loyal customer base. The share price is the most important factor for future returns, and $145 per share is currently not very attractive.<blockquote>总而言之，即使目前股价为每股 145 美元，股东也可以预期正回报，但经通货膨胀调整后，与过去十年相比，苹果未来将令人失望。由于较低的增长（激烈的竞争、芯片短缺）、较低的回购收益率和较高的通胀将增加公司的成本，尽管苹果拥有有前途的产品线和忠诚的客户群，但其股票将不再跑赢市场。股价是未来回报最重要的因素，每股145美元目前吸引力不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Past Decade Can't Be Repeated<blockquote>苹果：过去十年不能重演</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Past Decade Can't Be Repeated<blockquote>苹果：过去十年不能重演</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-19 10:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>A return of more than 860% in 10 years made many shareholders happy.</li> <li>This return was based on double-digit growth rates, aggressive buybacks and a solid customer base.</li> <li>However, slowing growth, a worsened balance sheet, competition and, most important, Apple's valuation will likely lead to decreasing returns in the near future.</li> <li>Even if new products are excellent and stand out from competitors, it will be very hard to achieve similar returns for the stock.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48faf1320d58a68f652bbf7b8e93adf\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>10年超过860%的回报率让不少股民欣喜不已。</li><li>这一回报是基于两位数的增长率、积极的回购和坚实的客户群。</li><li>然而，增长放缓、资产负债表恶化、竞争以及最重要的苹果估值可能会在不久的将来导致回报下降。</li><li>即使新产品非常优秀，从竞争对手中脱颖而出，股票也很难获得类似的回报。</li></ul>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> 1. Looking back at an impressive decade<blockquote>1. 回顾令人印象深刻的十年</blockquote> Apple's (AAPL) stock showed a stunning performance over the last 10 years.<blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 股票在过去 10 年中表现出色。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f670db7ff8b0f2f186fa8dad803627f7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The stock returned 861% or 25.4% annually, which is an above average return compared to the S&amp;P 500 with just about 263%. Apple has a stunning growth record over the past decade which is one reason for the long rally. Revenues grew from $108 bn. in 2011 to expected revenues in 2021 of $365 bn. (+238%) while net income increased from $26 bn. to $95 bn. in 2021 (+265%).<blockquote>该股的年回报率为 861% 或 25.4%，高于标普500约 263% 的平均回报率。苹果在过去十年中有着惊人的增长记录，这是长期反弹的原因之一。收入从 1080 亿美元增长。2011 年至 2021 年收入预计为 3650 亿美元。（+238%），而净利润则从 260 亿美元增长。高达950亿美元。2021年（+265%）。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>2012</td> <td>2013</td> <td>2014</td> <td>2015</td> <td>2016</td> <td>2017</td> <td>2018</td> <td>2019</td> <td>2020</td> <td>2021 (e)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue (bn. USD)</td> <td>108</td> <td>156</td> <td>171</td> <td>183</td> <td>231</td> <td>214</td> <td>229</td> <td>266</td> <td>260</td> <td>274</td> <td>365</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net income (bn. USD)</td> <td>26</td> <td>42</td> <td>37</td> <td>40</td> <td>53</td> <td>46</td> <td>48</td> <td>60</td> <td>55</td> <td>57</td> <td>95</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EPS*(USD)</td> <td>1.56</td> <td>2.51</td> <td>2.22</td> <td>2.38</td> <td>3.21</td> <td>2.75</td> <td>2.91</td> <td>3.57</td> <td>3.33</td> <td>3.45</td> <td>5.7</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> [*EPS numbers adjusted for stock splits in 2015 (7:1) and 2020 (4:1), calculation with 16.63 billion shares]<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td>2012</td><td>2013</td><td>2014</td><td>2015</td><td>2016</td><td>2017</td><td>2018</td><td>2019</td><td>2020</td><td>2021年(e)</td></tr><tr><td>收入（十亿美元）</td><td>108</td><td>156</td><td>171</td><td>183</td><td>231</td><td>214</td><td>229</td><td>266</td><td>260</td><td>274</td><td>365</td></tr><tr><td>净利润（十亿美元）</td><td>26</td><td>42</td><td>37</td><td>40</td><td>53</td><td>46</td><td>48</td><td>60</td><td>55</td><td>57</td><td>95</td></tr><tr><td>每股收益*（美元）</td><td>1.56</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.22</td><td>2.38</td><td>3.21</td><td>2.75</td><td>2.91</td><td>3.57</td><td>3.33</td><td>3.45</td><td>5.7</td></tr></tbody></table>[*2015 年 (7:1) 和 2020 年 (4:1) 股票分割调整后的每股收益数据，以 166.3 亿股计算]</blockquote> 2. Aggressive buybacks<blockquote>2. 积极回购</blockquote> Although the company's fundamental growth was great, the stock's gain was even more phenomenal. A second reason were permanent and aggressive stock buybacks by Apple. In2011, Apple had 926 million shares outstanding, according to the quarterly report from June. Adjusted for the two stock splits, the number should have increased to 25.93 bn. shares. Surprisingly, Apple had just 16.63 bn. shares outstanding at the end of June 2021, which means that share count was reduced by nearly 36% in just one decade. The buybacks definitely contributed to the stock's stellar performance, but the higher the stock climbed over the years, the more Apple had to pay to buy back shares. The buybacks are reflected in the company's balance sheet which has worsened significantly.<blockquote>尽管公司的基本面增长很大，但股票的涨幅更为惊人。第二个原因是苹果永久而积极的股票回购。根据 6 月份的季度报告，2011 年苹果有 9.26 亿股流通股。根据两次股票分割进行调整后，这个数字应该会增加到259.3亿。股份。令人惊讶的是，苹果只有166.3亿。截至 2021 年 6 月底，已发行股票，这意味着股票数量在短短十年内减少了近 36%。回购无疑对该股的出色表现做出了贡献，但多年来该股涨幅越高，苹果回购股票所需支付的费用就越多。回购反映在公司的资产负债表上，而资产负债表已经显着恶化。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>2012</td> <td>2013</td> <td>2014</td> <td>2015</td> <td>2016</td> <td>2017</td> <td>2018</td> <td>2019</td> <td>2020</td> <td>2021</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Equity (bn. USD)</td> <td>70</td> <td>118</td> <td>124</td> <td>111</td> <td>119</td> <td>128</td> <td>134</td> <td>107</td> <td>90</td> <td>65</td> <td>64</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Liabilities (bn. USD)</td> <td>37</td> <td>58</td> <td>83</td> <td>120</td> <td>171</td> <td>193</td> <td>241</td> <td>259</td> <td>248</td> <td>259</td> <td>265</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Equity ratio (%)</td> <td>65</td> <td>67</td> <td>60</td> <td>48</td> <td>41</td> <td>40</td> <td>36</td> <td>29</td> <td>27</td> <td>20</td> <td>19.5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Equity and equity ratio are in an obvious downward trend while liabilities have increased. However, the deterioration of the balance sheet hasn't had an impact yet on Apple's power to generate and increase revenues and earnings. With $95 bn. net income this year, Apple shows a return on equity (ROE) of 148% (!), a number not many companies achieve. So while the balance sheet is nothing to worry about in regard to Apple's business, it will have an impact on the company's ability to buy back shares. Even if Apple spends all its net income on buybacks (which would be a new annual buyback record), this number would just represent 3.9% of Apple's total market cap of $2.41 trillion. As a result, the company must spend more cash in the future to buy back the same percentage of shares as it did during the last ten years.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td>2012</td><td>2013</td><td>2014</td><td>2015</td><td>2016</td><td>2017</td><td>2018</td><td>2019</td><td>2020</td><td>2021</td></tr><tr><td>权益（十亿美元）</td><td>70</td><td>118</td><td>124</td><td>111</td><td>119</td><td>128</td><td>134</td><td>107</td><td>90</td><td>65</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>负债（十亿美元）</td><td>37</td><td>58</td><td>83</td><td>120</td><td>171</td><td>193</td><td>241</td><td>259</td><td>248</td><td>259</td><td>265</td></tr><tr><td>权益比率（%）</td><td>65</td><td>67</td><td>60</td><td>48</td><td>41</td><td>40</td><td>36</td><td>29</td><td>27</td><td>20</td><td>19.5</td></tr></tbody></table>权益和权益比率呈明显下降趋势，而负债则有所增加。然而，资产负债表的恶化尚未对苹果产生和增加收入和盈利的能力产生影响。950亿美元。净利润 今年，苹果的股本回报率 (ROE) 为 148% (!)，这是很多公司都没有达到的数字。因此，虽然资产负债表对于苹果的业务来说没什么好担心的，但它将对该公司回购股票的能力产生影响。即使苹果将其所有净收入用于回购（这将创下新的年度回购记录），这一数字也仅占苹果2.41万亿美元总市值的3.9%。因此，该公司未来必须花费更多现金来回购与过去十年相同比例的股票。</blockquote> 3. Valuation<blockquote>3.估值</blockquote> Apple currently trades for $145 per share (as of 10/18/21) and has a total market cap of $2.41 trillion. EPS for 2021 is about $5.7, so the P/E ratio is 25.4. The P/B ratio climbed to a whopping 37.6 (which can be partly explained by buybacks). High P/B ratios are not unusual for tech companies (many patents, intangible assets and brand value do not count for equity), but the number for Apple is really extreme. Cash flow per share of around $6.5 per share results in a P/CF ratio of 22. The average EPS of the last decade was $3.2. Hence, the CAPE ratio for Apple is 45.3, a number which also indicates an ambitious valuation.<blockquote>苹果目前的交易价格为每股 145 美元（截至 2021 年 10 月 18 日），总市值为 2.41 万亿美元。2021年每股收益约为5.7美元，因此市盈率为25.4。市净率攀升至高达 37.6（部分原因可以用回购来解释）。高市净率对于科技公司来说并不罕见（许多专利、无形资产和品牌价值不计入股权），但苹果的这个数字确实非常极端。每股现金流约为每股 6.5 美元，市盈率为 22。过去十年的平均每股收益为 3.2 美元。因此，苹果的 CAPE 比率为 45.3，这个数字也表明了雄心勃勃的估值。</blockquote> All these numbers indicate that future returns are likely to be lower than the returns of the past decade.<blockquote>所有这些数字都表明，未来的回报很可能低于过去十年的回报。</blockquote> 4. Growth perspectives and product pipeline<blockquote>4.增长前景和产品管线</blockquote> In the past decade, Apple grew its net income by 13.8% annually and expects an increase of more than 66% this year. In the third quarter 2021, Apple&nbsp;increased its computer sales by 7.4%&nbsp;and increased its market share to 8.6% of worldwide sales. Smartphone sales decreased in the third quarter 2021 by 6% because of the chip shortage, but Apple&nbsp;increased its market share from 12% to 15%&nbsp;due to strong demand for the iPhone 13, which means that shipments grew by ca. 17% YoY. All in all, the market data shows that consumers strongly demand Apple products (MacBook, iPhone, iPad etc.) and also accept higher expenditures for high-quality products. However, the chip shortage will likely hurt Apple's sales in the quarters to come. Hence, it will be difficult for Apple to grow next year as revenues will take a hit. In the long term, Apple must differentiate from its competitors Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY,OTCPK:LNVGF),HP Inc. (HPQ) andXiaomi(OTCPK:XIACF,OTCPK:XIACY) with special features and design, because some consumers (who are not pure Apple fans) will prefer price over features and design. I expect revenues to be flat next year or even lower than 2021 when the post-pandemic computer boom will flatten. The average growth rate for net income and revenue in the next decade is probably lower than in the past decade.<blockquote>过去十年，苹果的净利润每年增长13.8%，预计今年将增长66%以上。2021年第三季度，苹果电脑销量增长7.4%，市场份额占全球销量的8.6%。由于芯片短缺，2021年第三季度智能手机销量下降了6%，但由于对iPhone 13的强劲需求，苹果将其市场份额从12%增加到15%，这意味着出货量同比增长约17%。总而言之，市场数据显示消费者对苹果产品（MacBook、iPhone、iPad等）的需求强烈，同时也接受了高质量产品的更高支出。然而，芯片短缺可能会损害苹果未来几个季度的销售。因此，由于收入将受到打击，苹果明年将很难增长。从长远来看，苹果必须通过特殊功能和设计与其竞争对手三星（OTC:SSNLF）、联想（OTCPK:LNVGY、OTCPK:LNVGF）、惠普公司（HPQ）和小米（OTCPK:XIACF、OTCPK:XIACY）区分开来，因为一些消费者（不是纯粹的苹果粉丝）会更喜欢价格而不是功能和设计。我预计明年收入将持平，甚至低于 2021 年，届时大流行后的计算机繁荣将持平。未来十年净利润和收入的平均增长率可能低于过去十年。</blockquote> 5. Conclusion<blockquote>5. 结论</blockquote> Since Apple's total market cap is already very high, it will be harder to boost share performance via buybacks. Consequently, the stock's total performance in the next decade (2022-2032) will be lower than the performance in the 2010s, especially because the stock has already outperformed Apple's fundamental performance.<blockquote>由于苹果的总市值已经很高，通过回购来提升股票表现将更加困难。因此，该股未来十年（2022-2032年）的整体表现将低于2010年代的表现，特别是因为该股的表现已经超过了苹果的基本面表现。</blockquote> My conservative estimate is a net income growth rate of 5-7% p.a. and a buyback yield of just 1.5-2.0%. The earnings yield for the stock is currently 4% (P/E ratio of 25). Hence, the total annual return for the next ten years will possibly be between 5.5-9.0% which is significantly lower than the 25.4% from 2011-2021.<blockquote>我的保守估计是每年净利润增长率为5-7%，回购收益率仅为1.5-2.0%。该股目前的市盈率为4%（市盈率为25）。因此，未来十年的总年回报率可能在5.5-9.0%之间，远低于2011-2021年的25.4%。</blockquote> All in all, even at a current stock price of $145 per share, shareholders can expect a positive return, but adjusted for inflation, Apple will disappoint in the future compared to the last ten years. Due to a combination of lower growth (high competition, chip shortage), a lower buyback yield and a higher inflation which will increase the company's costs, Apple's stock will no longer outperform the market despite a promising product pipeline and a loyal customer base. The share price is the most important factor for future returns, and $145 per share is currently not very attractive.<blockquote>总而言之，即使目前股价为每股 145 美元，股东也可以预期正回报，但经通货膨胀调整后，与过去十年相比，苹果未来将令人失望。由于较低的增长（激烈的竞争、芯片短缺）、较低的回购收益率和较高的通胀将增加公司的成本，尽管苹果拥有有前途的产品线和忠诚的客户群，但其股票将不再跑赢市场。股价是未来回报最重要的因素，每股145美元目前吸引力不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460481-apple-stock-past-decade-cant-be-repeated\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460481-apple-stock-past-decade-cant-be-repeated","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175707103","content_text":"Summary\n\nA return of more than 860% in 10 years made many shareholders happy.\nThis return was based on double-digit growth rates, aggressive buybacks and a solid customer base.\nHowever, slowing growth, a worsened balance sheet, competition and, most important, Apple's valuation will likely lead to decreasing returns in the near future.\nEven if new products are excellent and stand out from competitors, it will be very hard to achieve similar returns for the stock.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\n1. Looking back at an impressive decade\nApple's (AAPL) stock showed a stunning performance over the last 10 years.\nData by YCharts\nThe stock returned 861% or 25.4% annually, which is an above average return compared to the S&P 500 with just about 263%. Apple has a stunning growth record over the past decade which is one reason for the long rally. Revenues grew from $108 bn. in 2011 to expected revenues in 2021 of $365 bn. (+238%) while net income increased from $26 bn. to $95 bn. in 2021 (+265%).\n\n\n\n2011\n2012\n2013\n2014\n2015\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021 (e)\n\n\nRevenue (bn. USD)\n108\n156\n171\n183\n231\n214\n229\n266\n260\n274\n365\n\n\nNet income (bn. USD)\n26\n42\n37\n40\n53\n46\n48\n60\n55\n57\n95\n\n\nEPS*(USD)\n1.56\n2.51\n2.22\n2.38\n3.21\n2.75\n2.91\n3.57\n3.33\n3.45\n5.7\n\n\n\n[*EPS numbers adjusted for stock splits in 2015 (7:1) and 2020 (4:1), calculation with 16.63 billion shares]\n2. Aggressive buybacks\nAlthough the company's fundamental growth was great, the stock's gain was even more phenomenal. A second reason were permanent and aggressive stock buybacks by Apple. In2011, Apple had 926 million shares outstanding, according to the quarterly report from June. Adjusted for the two stock splits, the number should have increased to 25.93 bn. shares. Surprisingly, Apple had just 16.63 bn. shares outstanding at the end of June 2021, which means that share count was reduced by nearly 36% in just one decade. The buybacks definitely contributed to the stock's stellar performance, but the higher the stock climbed over the years, the more Apple had to pay to buy back shares. The buybacks are reflected in the company's balance sheet which has worsened significantly.\n\n\n\n2011\n2012\n2013\n2014\n2015\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021\n\n\nEquity (bn. USD)\n70\n118\n124\n111\n119\n128\n134\n107\n90\n65\n64\n\n\nLiabilities (bn. USD)\n37\n58\n83\n120\n171\n193\n241\n259\n248\n259\n265\n\n\nEquity ratio (%)\n65\n67\n60\n48\n41\n40\n36\n29\n27\n20\n19.5\n\n\n\nEquity and equity ratio are in an obvious downward trend while liabilities have increased. However, the deterioration of the balance sheet hasn't had an impact yet on Apple's power to generate and increase revenues and earnings. With $95 bn. net income this year, Apple shows a return on equity (ROE) of 148% (!), a number not many companies achieve. So while the balance sheet is nothing to worry about in regard to Apple's business, it will have an impact on the company's ability to buy back shares. Even if Apple spends all its net income on buybacks (which would be a new annual buyback record), this number would just represent 3.9% of Apple's total market cap of $2.41 trillion. As a result, the company must spend more cash in the future to buy back the same percentage of shares as it did during the last ten years.\n3. Valuation\nApple currently trades for $145 per share (as of 10/18/21) and has a total market cap of $2.41 trillion. EPS for 2021 is about $5.7, so the P/E ratio is 25.4. The P/B ratio climbed to a whopping 37.6 (which can be partly explained by buybacks). High P/B ratios are not unusual for tech companies (many patents, intangible assets and brand value do not count for equity), but the number for Apple is really extreme. Cash flow per share of around $6.5 per share results in a P/CF ratio of 22. The average EPS of the last decade was $3.2. Hence, the CAPE ratio for Apple is 45.3, a number which also indicates an ambitious valuation.\nAll these numbers indicate that future returns are likely to be lower than the returns of the past decade.\n4. Growth perspectives and product pipeline\nIn the past decade, Apple grew its net income by 13.8% annually and expects an increase of more than 66% this year. In the third quarter 2021, Apple increased its computer sales by 7.4% and increased its market share to 8.6% of worldwide sales. Smartphone sales decreased in the third quarter 2021 by 6% because of the chip shortage, but Apple increased its market share from 12% to 15% due to strong demand for the iPhone 13, which means that shipments grew by ca. 17% YoY. All in all, the market data shows that consumers strongly demand Apple products (MacBook, iPhone, iPad etc.) and also accept higher expenditures for high-quality products. However, the chip shortage will likely hurt Apple's sales in the quarters to come. Hence, it will be difficult for Apple to grow next year as revenues will take a hit. In the long term, Apple must differentiate from its competitors Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY,OTCPK:LNVGF),HP Inc. (HPQ) andXiaomi(OTCPK:XIACF,OTCPK:XIACY) with special features and design, because some consumers (who are not pure Apple fans) will prefer price over features and design. I expect revenues to be flat next year or even lower than 2021 when the post-pandemic computer boom will flatten. The average growth rate for net income and revenue in the next decade is probably lower than in the past decade.\n5. Conclusion\nSince Apple's total market cap is already very high, it will be harder to boost share performance via buybacks. Consequently, the stock's total performance in the next decade (2022-2032) will be lower than the performance in the 2010s, especially because the stock has already outperformed Apple's fundamental performance.\nMy conservative estimate is a net income growth rate of 5-7% p.a. and a buyback yield of just 1.5-2.0%. The earnings yield for the stock is currently 4% (P/E ratio of 25). Hence, the total annual return for the next ten years will possibly be between 5.5-9.0% which is significantly lower than the 25.4% from 2011-2021.\nAll in all, even at a current stock price of $145 per share, shareholders can expect a positive return, but adjusted for inflation, Apple will disappoint in the future compared to the last ten years. Due to a combination of lower growth (high competition, chip shortage), a lower buyback yield and a higher inflation which will increase the company's costs, Apple's stock will no longer outperform the market despite a promising product pipeline and a loyal customer base. The share price is the most important factor for future returns, and $145 per share is currently not very attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2562,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["ADC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/850554773"}