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2021-10-22

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Investors Bet Inflation Pressures Will Linger<blockquote>投资者押注通胀压力将持续存在</blockquote>

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A key measure of investors’ inflation expectations has climbed in recent weeks, adding fuel to concerns about rising consumer prices.<blockquote>10年盈亏平衡率表明，未来十年消费者价格指数将年均上涨2.57%，这令一些投资者感到担忧。最近几周，衡量投资者通胀预期的一项关键指标攀升，加剧了人们对消费者价格上涨的担忧。</blockquote> As of Wednesday, the gauge known as the 10-year break-even rate suggested that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.57% over the next decade, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED. That is up from a recent low of 2.28% in late September and the highest level since 2013.<blockquote>根据美联储经济数据（FRED），截至周三，10年期盈亏平衡率指标表明，未来十年消费者价格指数将年均上涨2.57%。这高于9月底2.28%的近期低点，也是2013年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> The break-even rate is found by looking at the difference in yields between nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS. The rate is so called because TIPS holders can earn the same return as holders of nominal Treasurys if average annual CPI inflation matches that gap over the life of the bonds.<blockquote>盈亏平衡率是通过查看名义国债和通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异来确定的。之所以如此称呼该利率，是因为如果平均年CPI通胀率与债券期限内的差距相匹配，TIPS持有者可以获得与名义国债持有者相同的回报。</blockquote> Rising break-even rates worry some investors because the move suggests current inflation pressures could last longer than previously expected. The Labor Department said on Oct. 13 that last month’s consumer-price indexrose by 5.4% from a year earlier, in unadjusted terms. While that index tends to run slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the data still confirmed that inflation is much higher than the central bank’s 2% annual target.<blockquote>盈亏平衡率的上升令一些投资者感到担忧，因为此举表明当前的通胀压力可能会比此前预期的持续时间更长。美国劳工部10月13日表示，未经调整的上个月消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%。尽管该指数往往略高于美联储首选的通胀指标，但数据仍证实通胀远高于央行2%的年度目标。</blockquote> Investors and analysts generally expect inflation to cool in the coming months as businesses ramp up the supply of goods to meet consumer demand and consumers further ease supply-chain pressures by returning to more normal spending patterns—purchasing fewer goods and more services. Many, though, have revised their forecasts upward in light of surging energy prices, rising rents andincreasing evidence of a tightening employment market.<blockquote>投资者和分析师普遍预计，随着企业增加商品供应以满足消费者需求，消费者通过回归更正常的支出模式——购买更少的商品和更多的服务——进一步缓解供应链压力，通胀将在未来几个月降温。不过，鉴于能源价格飙升、租金上涨以及就业市场收紧的证据越来越多，许多人上调了预测。</blockquote> Some analysts caution that break-even rates still don’t suggest serious concern about longer-term inflation, though they may be heading in that direction. Yield differentials between nominal and inflation-protected securities, for example, suggest CPI inflation&nbsp;will moderate to 2.6%&nbsp;in five yearsthen&nbsp;drop down to just below 2% about a decade from now. And even those numbers could overstate baseline expectations because break-evens can also rise based on increasing uncertainty about the inflation outlook.<blockquote>一些分析师警告说，盈亏平衡率仍然不表明对长期通胀的严重担忧，尽管它们可能正朝着这个方向发展。例如，名义证券和通胀保值证券之间的收益率差异表明，CPI通胀率将在五年内放缓至2.6%，然后在大约十年后降至略低于2%。即使是这些数字也可能夸大基线预期，因为盈亏平衡也可能因通胀前景不确定性的增加而上升。</blockquote> “Break-evens are flashing maybe a yellow light here, but certainly not a red light,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays PLC.<blockquote>巴克莱银行全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔·庞德表示：“盈亏平衡在这里可能是黄灯，但肯定不是红灯。”</blockquote> Several factors have lifted break-even rates this year, including a vaccine-fueled economic recovery, massive amounts of government stimulus and consistent messaging from central bankers that the Fed will be patient in its approach to tightening monetary policy.<blockquote>今年有几个因素提高了盈亏平衡利率，包括疫苗推动的经济复苏、政府的大规模刺激措施以及央行行长们一致发出的美联储将对收紧货币政策保持耐心的信息。</blockquote> Last year, Fed officials announceda new policy framework, stating they would welcome inflation being modestly above their 2% target for a time to make up for the extended period it has spent below that level.<blockquote>去年，美联储官员宣布了新的政策框架，表示他们欢迎通胀暂时略高于2%的目标，以弥补长期低于该水平的情况。</blockquote> Investors’ concerns over inflation have ebbed and flowed this year, but have clearly increased lately, driving a flood of cash toward inflation-protected bonds. About $2.1 billion on net was funneled into mutual and exchange-traded funds that focus on TIPS during the two weeks ending Oct. 13, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, the largest two-week inflow in more than two months. That compared with a net outflow of $1.7 billion from all taxable bond funds during the same period.<blockquote>投资者对通胀的担忧今年时好时坏，但最近明显加剧，推动大量现金流向通胀保值债券。根据Refinitiv Lipper的数据，截至10月13日的两周内，约有21亿美元净流入专注于TIPS的共同基金和交易所交易基金，这是两个多月来最大的两周流入量。相比之下，同期所有应税债券基金净流出17亿美元。</blockquote> Fed officials themselves have recentlyexpressed concernsthat disrupted supply chains were raising the risks of more persistent inflation. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank doesn’t expect the current spike in consumer prices to lead to a new regime in which inflation remains high year after year.<blockquote>美联储官员自己最近也表达了担忧，即供应链中断正在增加通胀更加持续的风险。与此同时，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，央行预计当前消费者价格飙升不会导致通胀年复一年居高不下的新制度。</blockquote> Break-even rates, notably, have climbed even as investors have pulled forward their forecasts for when the Fed will start to raise interest rates. Federal-funds futures, which investors use to wager on interest rate policy, recently showed a 51% chance of a rate increase by July 2022 and 75% by September 2022. That is up from around 15% and 27% a month ago, respectively.<blockquote>值得注意的是，尽管投资者提前了对美联储何时开始加息的预测，但盈亏平衡利率仍在攀升。投资者用来押注利率政策的联邦基金期货最近显示，到2022年7月加息的可能性为51%，到2022年9月加息的可能性为75%。这一比例分别高于一个月前的15%和27%左右。</blockquote> “The question right now is at what point does the pull forward [in rate increases] and possible tightening make investors believe that central banks can slow the growth of inflation,” said Jim Vogel, interest-rates strategist at FHN Financial.<blockquote>FHN Financial利率策略师吉姆·沃格尔(Jim Vogel)表示：“现在的问题是，（加息）的推进和可能的紧缩政策在什么时候会让投资者相信央行可以减缓通胀的增长。”</blockquote> Raising interest rates typically slows economic growth by increasing borrowing costs and pushing consumers to spend less, thereby cooling inflation as well.<blockquote>加息通常会通过增加借贷成本和促使消费者减少支出来减缓经济增长，从而冷却通胀。</blockquote> Shorter-dated inflation expectations can continue to rise with commodity price concerns, but it has been surprising that the market’s pulling forward of interest-rate hikes hasn’t done more to arrest the rise in investors’ inflation expectations, some analysts say.<blockquote>一些分析师表示，随着大宗商品价格担忧，短期通胀预期可能会继续上升，但令人惊讶的是，市场提前加息并没有起到更多作用来阻止投资者通胀预期的上升。</blockquote> Still, rising interest-rate expectations and inflation forecasts aren’t incompatible, Barclays’ Mr. Pond said. Even if the Fed starts raising interest rates next year, it could still be years before rates reach the so-called neutral level that officials believe would neither stimulate nor slow the economy.<blockquote>巴克莱银行的庞德表示，尽管如此，加息预期和通胀预测并非不相容。即使美联储明年开始加息，利率仍可能需要数年时间才能达到所谓的中性水平，官员们认为这既不会刺激也不会减缓经济。</blockquote> “The Fed is saying we’re going to continue to run a stimulative policy even as we see inflation above our target over the next three years,” he said.<blockquote>他表示：“美联储表示，即使我们看到未来三年通胀高于目标，我们仍将继续实施刺激政策。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors Bet Inflation Pressures Will Linger<blockquote>投资者押注通胀压力将持续存在</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors Bet Inflation Pressures Will Linger<blockquote>投资者押注通胀压力将持续存在</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-10-22 18:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n The 10-year break-even rate suggests that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.57% over the next decade, worrying some investors. A key measure of investors’ inflation expectations has climbed in recent weeks, adding fuel to concerns about rising consumer prices.<blockquote>10年盈亏平衡率表明，未来十年消费者价格指数将年均上涨2.57%，这令一些投资者感到担忧。最近几周，衡量投资者通胀预期的一项关键指标攀升，加剧了人们对消费者价格上涨的担忧。</blockquote> As of Wednesday, the gauge known as the 10-year break-even rate suggested that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.57% over the next decade, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED. That is up from a recent low of 2.28% in late September and the highest level since 2013.<blockquote>根据美联储经济数据（FRED），截至周三，10年期盈亏平衡率指标表明，未来十年消费者价格指数将年均上涨2.57%。这高于9月底2.28%的近期低点，也是2013年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> The break-even rate is found by looking at the difference in yields between nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS. The rate is so called because TIPS holders can earn the same return as holders of nominal Treasurys if average annual CPI inflation matches that gap over the life of the bonds.<blockquote>盈亏平衡率是通过查看名义国债和通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异来确定的。之所以如此称呼该利率，是因为如果平均年CPI通胀率与债券期限内的差距相匹配，TIPS持有者可以获得与名义国债持有者相同的回报。</blockquote> Rising break-even rates worry some investors because the move suggests current inflation pressures could last longer than previously expected. The Labor Department said on Oct. 13 that last month’s consumer-price indexrose by 5.4% from a year earlier, in unadjusted terms. While that index tends to run slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the data still confirmed that inflation is much higher than the central bank’s 2% annual target.<blockquote>盈亏平衡率的上升令一些投资者感到担忧，因为此举表明当前的通胀压力可能会比此前预期的持续时间更长。美国劳工部10月13日表示，未经调整的上个月消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%。尽管该指数往往略高于美联储首选的通胀指标，但数据仍证实通胀远高于央行2%的年度目标。</blockquote> Investors and analysts generally expect inflation to cool in the coming months as businesses ramp up the supply of goods to meet consumer demand and consumers further ease supply-chain pressures by returning to more normal spending patterns—purchasing fewer goods and more services. Many, though, have revised their forecasts upward in light of surging energy prices, rising rents andincreasing evidence of a tightening employment market.<blockquote>投资者和分析师普遍预计，随着企业增加商品供应以满足消费者需求，消费者通过回归更正常的支出模式——购买更少的商品和更多的服务——进一步缓解供应链压力，通胀将在未来几个月降温。不过，鉴于能源价格飙升、租金上涨以及就业市场收紧的证据越来越多，许多人上调了预测。</blockquote> Some analysts caution that break-even rates still don’t suggest serious concern about longer-term inflation, though they may be heading in that direction. Yield differentials between nominal and inflation-protected securities, for example, suggest CPI inflation&nbsp;will moderate to 2.6%&nbsp;in five yearsthen&nbsp;drop down to just below 2% about a decade from now. And even those numbers could overstate baseline expectations because break-evens can also rise based on increasing uncertainty about the inflation outlook.<blockquote>一些分析师警告说，盈亏平衡率仍然不表明对长期通胀的严重担忧，尽管它们可能正朝着这个方向发展。例如，名义证券和通胀保值证券之间的收益率差异表明，CPI通胀率将在五年内放缓至2.6%，然后在大约十年后降至略低于2%。即使是这些数字也可能夸大基线预期，因为盈亏平衡也可能因通胀前景不确定性的增加而上升。</blockquote> “Break-evens are flashing maybe a yellow light here, but certainly not a red light,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays PLC.<blockquote>巴克莱银行全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔·庞德表示：“盈亏平衡在这里可能是黄灯，但肯定不是红灯。”</blockquote> Several factors have lifted break-even rates this year, including a vaccine-fueled economic recovery, massive amounts of government stimulus and consistent messaging from central bankers that the Fed will be patient in its approach to tightening monetary policy.<blockquote>今年有几个因素提高了盈亏平衡利率，包括疫苗推动的经济复苏、政府的大规模刺激措施以及央行行长们一致发出的美联储将对收紧货币政策保持耐心的信息。</blockquote> Last year, Fed officials announceda new policy framework, stating they would welcome inflation being modestly above their 2% target for a time to make up for the extended period it has spent below that level.<blockquote>去年，美联储官员宣布了新的政策框架，表示他们欢迎通胀暂时略高于2%的目标，以弥补长期低于该水平的情况。</blockquote> Investors’ concerns over inflation have ebbed and flowed this year, but have clearly increased lately, driving a flood of cash toward inflation-protected bonds. About $2.1 billion on net was funneled into mutual and exchange-traded funds that focus on TIPS during the two weeks ending Oct. 13, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, the largest two-week inflow in more than two months. That compared with a net outflow of $1.7 billion from all taxable bond funds during the same period.<blockquote>投资者对通胀的担忧今年时好时坏，但最近明显加剧，推动大量现金流向通胀保值债券。根据Refinitiv Lipper的数据，截至10月13日的两周内，约有21亿美元净流入专注于TIPS的共同基金和交易所交易基金，这是两个多月来最大的两周流入量。相比之下，同期所有应税债券基金净流出17亿美元。</blockquote> Fed officials themselves have recentlyexpressed concernsthat disrupted supply chains were raising the risks of more persistent inflation. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank doesn’t expect the current spike in consumer prices to lead to a new regime in which inflation remains high year after year.<blockquote>美联储官员自己最近也表达了担忧，即供应链中断正在增加通胀更加持续的风险。与此同时，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，央行预计当前消费者价格飙升不会导致通胀年复一年居高不下的新制度。</blockquote> Break-even rates, notably, have climbed even as investors have pulled forward their forecasts for when the Fed will start to raise interest rates. Federal-funds futures, which investors use to wager on interest rate policy, recently showed a 51% chance of a rate increase by July 2022 and 75% by September 2022. That is up from around 15% and 27% a month ago, respectively.<blockquote>值得注意的是，尽管投资者提前了对美联储何时开始加息的预测，但盈亏平衡利率仍在攀升。投资者用来押注利率政策的联邦基金期货最近显示，到2022年7月加息的可能性为51%，到2022年9月加息的可能性为75%。这一比例分别高于一个月前的15%和27%左右。</blockquote> “The question right now is at what point does the pull forward [in rate increases] and possible tightening make investors believe that central banks can slow the growth of inflation,” said Jim Vogel, interest-rates strategist at FHN Financial.<blockquote>FHN Financial利率策略师吉姆·沃格尔(Jim Vogel)表示：“现在的问题是，（加息）的推进和可能的紧缩政策在什么时候会让投资者相信央行可以减缓通胀的增长。”</blockquote> Raising interest rates typically slows economic growth by increasing borrowing costs and pushing consumers to spend less, thereby cooling inflation as well.<blockquote>加息通常会通过增加借贷成本和促使消费者减少支出来减缓经济增长，从而冷却通胀。</blockquote> Shorter-dated inflation expectations can continue to rise with commodity price concerns, but it has been surprising that the market’s pulling forward of interest-rate hikes hasn’t done more to arrest the rise in investors’ inflation expectations, some analysts say.<blockquote>一些分析师表示，随着大宗商品价格担忧，短期通胀预期可能会继续上升，但令人惊讶的是，市场提前加息并没有起到更多作用来阻止投资者通胀预期的上升。</blockquote> Still, rising interest-rate expectations and inflation forecasts aren’t incompatible, Barclays’ Mr. Pond said. Even if the Fed starts raising interest rates next year, it could still be years before rates reach the so-called neutral level that officials believe would neither stimulate nor slow the economy.<blockquote>巴克莱银行的庞德表示，尽管如此，加息预期和通胀预测并非不相容。即使美联储明年开始加息，利率仍可能需要数年时间才能达到所谓的中性水平，官员们认为这既不会刺激也不会减缓经济。</blockquote> “The Fed is saying we’re going to continue to run a stimulative policy even as we see inflation above our target over the next three years,” he said.<blockquote>他表示：“美联储表示，即使我们看到未来三年通胀高于目标，我们仍将继续实施刺激政策。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-inflation-pressures-will-linger-11634849018?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-inflation-pressures-will-linger-11634849018?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169239209","content_text":"The 10-year break-even rate suggests that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.57% over the next decade, worrying some investors.\n\nA key measure of investors’ inflation expectations has climbed in recent weeks, adding fuel to concerns about rising consumer prices.\nAs of Wednesday, the gauge known as the 10-year break-even rate suggested that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.57% over the next decade, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED. That is up from a recent low of 2.28% in late September and the highest level since 2013.\nThe break-even rate is found by looking at the difference in yields between nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS. The rate is so called because TIPS holders can earn the same return as holders of nominal Treasurys if average annual CPI inflation matches that gap over the life of the bonds.\nRising break-even rates worry some investors because the move suggests current inflation pressures could last longer than previously expected. The Labor Department said on Oct. 13 that last month’s consumer-price indexrose by 5.4% from a year earlier, in unadjusted terms. While that index tends to run slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the data still confirmed that inflation is much higher than the central bank’s 2% annual target.\nInvestors and analysts generally expect inflation to cool in the coming months as businesses ramp up the supply of goods to meet consumer demand and consumers further ease supply-chain pressures by returning to more normal spending patterns—purchasing fewer goods and more services. Many, though, have revised their forecasts upward in light of surging energy prices, rising rents andincreasing evidence of a tightening employment market.\nSome analysts caution that break-even rates still don’t suggest serious concern about longer-term inflation, though they may be heading in that direction. Yield differentials between nominal and inflation-protected securities, for example, suggest CPI inflation will moderate to 2.6% in five yearsthen drop down to just below 2% about a decade from now. And even those numbers could overstate baseline expectations because break-evens can also rise based on increasing uncertainty about the inflation outlook.\n“Break-evens are flashing maybe a yellow light here, but certainly not a red light,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays PLC.\nSeveral factors have lifted break-even rates this year, including a vaccine-fueled economic recovery, massive amounts of government stimulus and consistent messaging from central bankers that the Fed will be patient in its approach to tightening monetary policy.\nLast year, Fed officials announceda new policy framework, stating they would welcome inflation being modestly above their 2% target for a time to make up for the extended period it has spent below that level.\nInvestors’ concerns over inflation have ebbed and flowed this year, but have clearly increased lately, driving a flood of cash toward inflation-protected bonds. About $2.1 billion on net was funneled into mutual and exchange-traded funds that focus on TIPS during the two weeks ending Oct. 13, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, the largest two-week inflow in more than two months. That compared with a net outflow of $1.7 billion from all taxable bond funds during the same period.\nFed officials themselves have recentlyexpressed concernsthat disrupted supply chains were raising the risks of more persistent inflation. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank doesn’t expect the current spike in consumer prices to lead to a new regime in which inflation remains high year after year.\nBreak-even rates, notably, have climbed even as investors have pulled forward their forecasts for when the Fed will start to raise interest rates. Federal-funds futures, which investors use to wager on interest rate policy, recently showed a 51% chance of a rate increase by July 2022 and 75% by September 2022. That is up from around 15% and 27% a month ago, respectively.\n“The question right now is at what point does the pull forward [in rate increases] and possible tightening make investors believe that central banks can slow the growth of inflation,” said Jim Vogel, interest-rates strategist at FHN Financial.\nRaising interest rates typically slows economic growth by increasing borrowing costs and pushing consumers to spend less, thereby cooling inflation as well.\nShorter-dated inflation expectations can continue to rise with commodity price concerns, but it has been surprising that the market’s pulling forward of interest-rate hikes hasn’t done more to arrest the rise in investors’ inflation expectations, some analysts say.\nStill, rising interest-rate expectations and inflation forecasts aren’t incompatible, Barclays’ Mr. Pond said. Even if the Fed starts raising interest rates next year, it could still be years before rates reach the so-called neutral level that officials believe would neither stimulate nor slow the economy.\n“The Fed is saying we’re going to continue to run a stimulative policy even as we see inflation above our target over the next three years,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/851606283"}