Kmlingc
2021-10-20
Upgraded macbook. Up up it goes
Apple's MacBook Pro Event: The Hidden Bullish Factors<blockquote>苹果 MacBook Pro 发布会：隐藏的看涨因素</blockquote>
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Up up it goes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853036934","repostId":1180374566,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180374566","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634711468,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180374566?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 14:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's MacBook Pro Event: The Hidden Bullish Factors<blockquote>苹果 MacBook Pro 发布会：隐藏的看涨因素</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180374566","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple unveiled its new MacBook Pro devices on October 18, and today I elaborate on why the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple unveiled its new MacBook Pro devices on October 18, and today I elaborate on why the event should be a bullish catalyst.</li> <li>Two key, yet underappreciated factors at play include (1) Apple's competitive supply chain position and (2) TAM expansion.</li> <li>Given robust business fundamentals, I doubt that AAPL will remain in this drawdown position for much longer.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b413d34e7e7a4e98291126300a550\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>volkankovancisoy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果于10月18日发布了新的MacBook Pro设备，今天我详细阐述了为什么这一事件应该是一个看涨的催化剂。</li><li>两个关键但未被充分认识的因素包括 (1) 苹果具有竞争力的供应链地位和 (2) TAM 扩张。</li><li>鉴于强劲的业务基本面，我怀疑 AAPL 是否会在这种缩水状态下保持更长时间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>volkankovancisoy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the day that Apple (AAPL) unveiled its new set of MacBook Pro devices, shares of the Cupertino-based company jumped from a modest gain of 0.2% earlier in the morning to 1.2% at the closing bell. The obvious reasons for such an intraday spike are not hard to pinpoint: Apple introduced two new chips that, from a processing and graphics performance standpoint, promise to leave the competition in the dust.</p><p><blockquote>在苹果 (AAPL) 推出新款 MacBook Pro 设备的当天，这家总部位于库比蒂诺的公司的股价从上午早些时候的 0.2% 小幅上涨至收盘时的 1.2%。这种盘中飙升的明显原因不难理解：苹果推出了两款新芯片，从处理和图形性能的角度来看，有望让竞争对手望尘莫及。</blockquote></p><p> But I believe that there are more subtle reasons why Apple investors may have felt particularly bullish on October 18 – and that, maybe, could fuel the rally further as the market slowly prices in the upside potential. Below are a couple of bullish factors that I have identified, which I have not seen any analyst or expert mention in more detail so far.</p><p><blockquote>但我相信，苹果投资者可能在 10 月 18 日感到特别乐观还有更微妙的原因——随着市场慢慢消化上行潜力，这可能会进一步推动反弹。以下是我发现的几个看涨因素，到目前为止，我还没有看到任何分析师或专家更详细地提及这些因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple rules the supply chain</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果统治供应链</b></blockquote></p><p> The talk of the town lately has been how the pandemic, more specifically the global economies' messy recovery from it, has been causing disruption to the supply chains. The tech space has been hit particularly hard by the crisis, as component shortages alone have caused some hardware vendors to expect a drop of more than ten percentage points in annual revenue growth this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近小镇上的话题是疫情，更具体地说是全球经济从中混乱的复苏，是如何对供应链造成中断的。科技领域受到这场危机的打击尤为严重，仅零部件短缺就导致一些硬件供应商预计今年的年收入增长将下降10个百分点以上。</blockquote></p><p> Confronted with the sector-wide challenges, Apple impressed by \"flexing its supply chain muscles\" during the October product launch event. Ahead of it, I found it plausible that the highly-anticipated new set of MacBook Pro laptops would face production delays. The risk would be even higher, in my view, if Apple boldly introduced not only a new 16-inch device but also rushed to bring to market a 14-inch trim to replace last year's 13-inch model during such a turbulent environment for tech device makers.</p><p><blockquote>面对全行业的挑战，苹果在10月份的产品发布会上“展示其供应链肌肉”给人留下了深刻的印象。在此之前，我发现备受期待的新MacBook Pro笔记本电脑可能会面临生产延迟。在我看来，如果苹果不仅大胆推出一款新的 16 英寸设备，而且在科技设备制造商如此动荡的环境下，还急于将 14 英寸装饰推向市场，以取代去年的 13 英寸型号，那么风险会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, Apple handily topped all my expectations. The 14.2-inch product was, in fact, launched on the same day as its 16.2-inch counterpart. Not only that, but Apple did not retire the 13-inch model, which effectively expanded (and added complexity to) Apple's PC portfolio. Lastly, but perhaps most impressively, all new products, which were fundamentally redesigned to accommodate the new M1 Pro and Max chips, will start shipping as early as next week – well ahead of the thick of the 2021 holiday shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果轻松地超出了我所有的预期。事实上，14.2 英寸产品与 16.2 英寸产品在同一天推出。不仅如此，苹果并没有退役13英寸机型，这有效地扩大了（并增加了）苹果的PC产品组合的复杂性。最后，但也许是最令人印象深刻的是，所有新产品都经过了根本性的重新设计，以适应新的M1 Pro和Max芯片，最早将于下周开始发货——远远领先于2021年假日购物季的旺季。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24be483657228ce035330f7e50924aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: company's video presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司视频演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple has reinforced my opinion that the company is, indeed, the king of inventory management. Former COO Tim Cook, a methodical operations manager at heart who has once advocated for \"managing [tech inventory] like you're in the dairy business\", has proven his value once again as the chief executive. Whether last year's transition from Intel-based (INTC) gear to Apple silicon played a key role or not, I believe that this was the perfect time for Apple to showcase what it is capable of doing within its supply chain, given concerns around the world that are unlikely to be put to rest anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强化了我的观点，即该公司确实是库存管理之王。前首席运营官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）本质上是一位有条不紊的运营经理，他曾倡导“像在乳制品行业一样管理（技术库存）”，他再次证明了自己作为首席执行官的价值。无论去年从英特尔 (INTC) 设备向苹果硅的转型是否发挥了关键作用，我相信这是苹果展示其供应链能力的最佳时机，因为世界各地的担忧不太可能很快得到平息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Widening the TAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>拓宽TAM</b></blockquote></p><p> The second key, yet arguably underappreciated takeaway from Apple's October launch event was the widening of the total addressable market. Apple unveiled a 16.2-inch MacBook Pro with M1 Max chip that retails for as much as $6,100 at the highest configuration (Final Cut Pro and Logic Pro software not included in this number). At the same time, it chose not to discontinue the basic M1-equipped, much cheaper 13-inch device that was launched this time last year, allowing consumers entry into the MacBook Pro family for as little as $1,300.</p><p><blockquote>苹果10月份发布会的第二个关键但可以说被低估的收获是整个潜在市场的扩大。苹果推出了一款配备M1 Max芯片的16.2英寸MacBook Pro，最高配置零售价高达6100美元（Final Cut Pro和Logic Pro软件不包括在这个数字中）。与此同时，它选择不停产去年这个时候推出的配备基本M1的、便宜得多的13英寸设备，允许消费者以低至1300美元的价格进入MacBook Pro系列。</blockquote></p><p> Apple did not limit the TAM expansion strategy to the Mac segment only. In very similar fashion, the company also announced the third generation of AirPods during the October event, but without discontinuing the second generation device. As a result, Apple now markets its flagship wireless headsets at a starting price of only $129 vs. $159 as recently as a couple of days ago – the company had already reached towards the higher end of the spectrum, when it launched the $550 AirPods Max less than a year ago. On the services side, Apple introduced the Apple Music Voice plan at a rock-bottom price of only $5, in a clear attempt to cater to price-sensitive music lovers.</p><p><blockquote>苹果并没有将TAM扩张战略仅限于Mac领域。以非常相似的方式，该公司还在10月份的活动中宣布了第三代AirPods，但没有停产第二代设备。因此，苹果现在销售其旗舰无线耳机的起价仅为129美元，而几天前的起价为159美元——该公司在不到一年前推出550美元的AirPods Max时，已经达到了该系列的高端。在服务方面，苹果以仅为5美元的最低价格推出了苹果音乐之声计划，显然是为了迎合对价格敏感的音乐爱好者。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple has done something similar to the iPhone recently. Once upon a time, as recently as 2019, the company carried only a handful of smartphone models at a time. Last year, it widened its product offerings to include the iPhone 11, SE and Mini at the lower end; and the very pricey 12 Pro Max with three hard drive configurations at the higher end. The result was \"an iPhone for everyone\",a term coined by CEO Tim Cook himself last year – and, of course, an astonishing spike in smartphone sales in the past few quarters (see below).</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近做了一些类似于iPhone的事情。曾几何时，就在2019年，该公司一次只销售少数几款智能手机型号。去年，它扩大了产品范围，将低端的 iPhone 11、SE 和 Mini 纳入其中；以及非常昂贵的12 Pro Max，高端有三种硬盘配置。结果是“每个人都有一部iPhone”，这是首席执行官蒂姆·库克去年亲自创造的一个术语——当然，过去几个季度智能手机销量也出现了惊人的飙升（见下文）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f93f0368df2d7e0f6cead60e3a2ea9\" tg-width=\"446\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this Monday's event served to reinforce the bullish thesis on Apple. Call it a super cycle or not, the company's products seem to be hitting the mark and meeting increased demand across nearly all major segments, even without the tailwinds of the stay-at-home economy. Apple has been one of the only top global tech device producers to gain market share in laptops and in smartphones lately, while it remains by far the most dominant player in smartwatches.</p><p><blockquote>我相信本周一的事件强化了对苹果的看涨论点。看涨期权 无论是否是超级周期，该公司的产品似乎都达到了目标，并满足了几乎所有主要细分市场不断增长的需求，即使没有居家经济的顺风。苹果是最近在笔记本电脑和智能手机领域获得市场份额的全球顶级科技设备生产商之一，而迄今为止，它仍然是智能手表领域最具主导地位的参与者。</blockquote></p><p> I have favored an investment in the stock for as long as I remember, but admit that shares can reach valuations that are a bit hard to justify at times. Now, I believe that multiples are de-risked enough once again, as the chart below indicates. Notice how, on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA bases, AAPL trades at roughly the same pre-pandemic levels of January 2020, back when interest rates were higher and Big Tech had not yet benefited from the impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior.</p><p><blockquote>从我记事起，我就喜欢投资股票，但承认股票的估值有时有点难以证明其合理性。现在，我相信倍数再次去风险，如下图所示。请注意，在远期市盈率和 EV/EBITDA 基础上，AAPL 的交易价格与 2020 年 1 月大流行前的水平大致相同，当时利率较高，大型科技公司尚未受益于 COVID-19 对消费者行为的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42473aff5d3de50f7cca63998f96700c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple share price is down nearly 7% from its all-time high (to be clear, not a substantial pullback from the peak). But, given robust business fundamentals, I doubt that the stock will remain in this drawdown position for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价较历史高点下跌近 7%（需要明确的是，并未从峰值大幅回落）。但是，考虑到强劲的商业基本面，我怀疑该股能否在这种回落状态下保持更长时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's MacBook Pro Event: The Hidden Bullish Factors<blockquote>苹果 MacBook Pro 发布会：隐藏的看涨因素</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's MacBook Pro Event: The Hidden Bullish Factors<blockquote>苹果 MacBook Pro 发布会：隐藏的看涨因素</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-20 14:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple unveiled its new MacBook Pro devices on October 18, and today I elaborate on why the event should be a bullish catalyst.</li> <li>Two key, yet underappreciated factors at play include (1) Apple's competitive supply chain position and (2) TAM expansion.</li> <li>Given robust business fundamentals, I doubt that AAPL will remain in this drawdown position for much longer.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b413d34e7e7a4e98291126300a550\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>volkankovancisoy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果于10月18日发布了新的MacBook Pro设备，今天我详细阐述了为什么这一事件应该是一个看涨的催化剂。</li><li>两个关键但未被充分认识的因素包括 (1) 苹果具有竞争力的供应链地位和 (2) TAM 扩张。</li><li>鉴于强劲的业务基本面，我怀疑 AAPL 是否会在这种缩水状态下保持更长时间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>volkankovancisoy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the day that Apple (AAPL) unveiled its new set of MacBook Pro devices, shares of the Cupertino-based company jumped from a modest gain of 0.2% earlier in the morning to 1.2% at the closing bell. The obvious reasons for such an intraday spike are not hard to pinpoint: Apple introduced two new chips that, from a processing and graphics performance standpoint, promise to leave the competition in the dust.</p><p><blockquote>在苹果 (AAPL) 推出新款 MacBook Pro 设备的当天，这家总部位于库比蒂诺的公司的股价从上午早些时候的 0.2% 小幅上涨至收盘时的 1.2%。这种盘中飙升的明显原因不难理解：苹果推出了两款新芯片，从处理和图形性能的角度来看，有望让竞争对手望尘莫及。</blockquote></p><p> But I believe that there are more subtle reasons why Apple investors may have felt particularly bullish on October 18 – and that, maybe, could fuel the rally further as the market slowly prices in the upside potential. Below are a couple of bullish factors that I have identified, which I have not seen any analyst or expert mention in more detail so far.</p><p><blockquote>但我相信，苹果投资者可能在 10 月 18 日感到特别乐观还有更微妙的原因——随着市场慢慢消化上行潜力，这可能会进一步推动反弹。以下是我发现的几个看涨因素，到目前为止，我还没有看到任何分析师或专家更详细地提及这些因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple rules the supply chain</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果统治供应链</b></blockquote></p><p> The talk of the town lately has been how the pandemic, more specifically the global economies' messy recovery from it, has been causing disruption to the supply chains. The tech space has been hit particularly hard by the crisis, as component shortages alone have caused some hardware vendors to expect a drop of more than ten percentage points in annual revenue growth this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近小镇上的话题是疫情，更具体地说是全球经济从中混乱的复苏，是如何对供应链造成中断的。科技领域受到这场危机的打击尤为严重，仅零部件短缺就导致一些硬件供应商预计今年的年收入增长将下降10个百分点以上。</blockquote></p><p> Confronted with the sector-wide challenges, Apple impressed by \"flexing its supply chain muscles\" during the October product launch event. Ahead of it, I found it plausible that the highly-anticipated new set of MacBook Pro laptops would face production delays. The risk would be even higher, in my view, if Apple boldly introduced not only a new 16-inch device but also rushed to bring to market a 14-inch trim to replace last year's 13-inch model during such a turbulent environment for tech device makers.</p><p><blockquote>面对全行业的挑战，苹果在10月份的产品发布会上“展示其供应链肌肉”给人留下了深刻的印象。在此之前，我发现备受期待的新MacBook Pro笔记本电脑可能会面临生产延迟。在我看来，如果苹果不仅大胆推出一款新的 16 英寸设备，而且在科技设备制造商如此动荡的环境下，还急于将 14 英寸装饰推向市场，以取代去年的 13 英寸型号，那么风险会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, Apple handily topped all my expectations. The 14.2-inch product was, in fact, launched on the same day as its 16.2-inch counterpart. Not only that, but Apple did not retire the 13-inch model, which effectively expanded (and added complexity to) Apple's PC portfolio. Lastly, but perhaps most impressively, all new products, which were fundamentally redesigned to accommodate the new M1 Pro and Max chips, will start shipping as early as next week – well ahead of the thick of the 2021 holiday shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果轻松地超出了我所有的预期。事实上，14.2 英寸产品与 16.2 英寸产品在同一天推出。不仅如此，苹果并没有退役13英寸机型，这有效地扩大了（并增加了）苹果的PC产品组合的复杂性。最后，但也许是最令人印象深刻的是，所有新产品都经过了根本性的重新设计，以适应新的M1 Pro和Max芯片，最早将于下周开始发货——远远领先于2021年假日购物季的旺季。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24be483657228ce035330f7e50924aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: company's video presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司视频演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple has reinforced my opinion that the company is, indeed, the king of inventory management. Former COO Tim Cook, a methodical operations manager at heart who has once advocated for \"managing [tech inventory] like you're in the dairy business\", has proven his value once again as the chief executive. Whether last year's transition from Intel-based (INTC) gear to Apple silicon played a key role or not, I believe that this was the perfect time for Apple to showcase what it is capable of doing within its supply chain, given concerns around the world that are unlikely to be put to rest anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强化了我的观点，即该公司确实是库存管理之王。前首席运营官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）本质上是一位有条不紊的运营经理，他曾倡导“像在乳制品行业一样管理（技术库存）”，他再次证明了自己作为首席执行官的价值。无论去年从英特尔 (INTC) 设备向苹果硅的转型是否发挥了关键作用，我相信这是苹果展示其供应链能力的最佳时机，因为世界各地的担忧不太可能很快得到平息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Widening the TAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>拓宽TAM</b></blockquote></p><p> The second key, yet arguably underappreciated takeaway from Apple's October launch event was the widening of the total addressable market. Apple unveiled a 16.2-inch MacBook Pro with M1 Max chip that retails for as much as $6,100 at the highest configuration (Final Cut Pro and Logic Pro software not included in this number). At the same time, it chose not to discontinue the basic M1-equipped, much cheaper 13-inch device that was launched this time last year, allowing consumers entry into the MacBook Pro family for as little as $1,300.</p><p><blockquote>苹果10月份发布会的第二个关键但可以说被低估的收获是整个潜在市场的扩大。苹果推出了一款配备M1 Max芯片的16.2英寸MacBook Pro，最高配置零售价高达6100美元（Final Cut Pro和Logic Pro软件不包括在这个数字中）。与此同时，它选择不停产去年这个时候推出的配备基本M1的、便宜得多的13英寸设备，允许消费者以低至1300美元的价格进入MacBook Pro系列。</blockquote></p><p> Apple did not limit the TAM expansion strategy to the Mac segment only. In very similar fashion, the company also announced the third generation of AirPods during the October event, but without discontinuing the second generation device. As a result, Apple now markets its flagship wireless headsets at a starting price of only $129 vs. $159 as recently as a couple of days ago – the company had already reached towards the higher end of the spectrum, when it launched the $550 AirPods Max less than a year ago. On the services side, Apple introduced the Apple Music Voice plan at a rock-bottom price of only $5, in a clear attempt to cater to price-sensitive music lovers.</p><p><blockquote>苹果并没有将TAM扩张战略仅限于Mac领域。以非常相似的方式，该公司还在10月份的活动中宣布了第三代AirPods，但没有停产第二代设备。因此，苹果现在销售其旗舰无线耳机的起价仅为129美元，而几天前的起价为159美元——该公司在不到一年前推出550美元的AirPods Max时，已经达到了该系列的高端。在服务方面，苹果以仅为5美元的最低价格推出了苹果音乐之声计划，显然是为了迎合对价格敏感的音乐爱好者。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple has done something similar to the iPhone recently. Once upon a time, as recently as 2019, the company carried only a handful of smartphone models at a time. Last year, it widened its product offerings to include the iPhone 11, SE and Mini at the lower end; and the very pricey 12 Pro Max with three hard drive configurations at the higher end. The result was \"an iPhone for everyone\",a term coined by CEO Tim Cook himself last year – and, of course, an astonishing spike in smartphone sales in the past few quarters (see below).</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近做了一些类似于iPhone的事情。曾几何时，就在2019年，该公司一次只销售少数几款智能手机型号。去年，它扩大了产品范围，将低端的 iPhone 11、SE 和 Mini 纳入其中；以及非常昂贵的12 Pro Max，高端有三种硬盘配置。结果是“每个人都有一部iPhone”，这是首席执行官蒂姆·库克去年亲自创造的一个术语——当然，过去几个季度智能手机销量也出现了惊人的飙升（见下文）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f93f0368df2d7e0f6cead60e3a2ea9\" tg-width=\"446\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this Monday's event served to reinforce the bullish thesis on Apple. Call it a super cycle or not, the company's products seem to be hitting the mark and meeting increased demand across nearly all major segments, even without the tailwinds of the stay-at-home economy. Apple has been one of the only top global tech device producers to gain market share in laptops and in smartphones lately, while it remains by far the most dominant player in smartwatches.</p><p><blockquote>我相信本周一的事件强化了对苹果的看涨论点。看涨期权 无论是否是超级周期，该公司的产品似乎都达到了目标，并满足了几乎所有主要细分市场不断增长的需求，即使没有居家经济的顺风。苹果是最近在笔记本电脑和智能手机领域获得市场份额的全球顶级科技设备生产商之一，而迄今为止，它仍然是智能手表领域最具主导地位的参与者。</blockquote></p><p> I have favored an investment in the stock for as long as I remember, but admit that shares can reach valuations that are a bit hard to justify at times. Now, I believe that multiples are de-risked enough once again, as the chart below indicates. Notice how, on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA bases, AAPL trades at roughly the same pre-pandemic levels of January 2020, back when interest rates were higher and Big Tech had not yet benefited from the impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior.</p><p><blockquote>从我记事起，我就喜欢投资股票，但承认股票的估值有时有点难以证明其合理性。现在，我相信倍数再次去风险，如下图所示。请注意，在远期市盈率和 EV/EBITDA 基础上，AAPL 的交易价格与 2020 年 1 月大流行前的水平大致相同，当时利率较高，大型科技公司尚未受益于 COVID-19 对消费者行为的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42473aff5d3de50f7cca63998f96700c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple share price is down nearly 7% from its all-time high (to be clear, not a substantial pullback from the peak). But, given robust business fundamentals, I doubt that the stock will remain in this drawdown position for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价较历史高点下跌近 7%（需要明确的是，并未从峰值大幅回落）。但是，考虑到强劲的商业基本面，我怀疑该股能否在这种回落状态下保持更长时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460539-apples-macbook-pro-event-the-hidden-bullish-factors\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460539-apples-macbook-pro-event-the-hidden-bullish-factors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180374566","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple unveiled its new MacBook Pro devices on October 18, and today I elaborate on why the event should be a bullish catalyst.\nTwo key, yet underappreciated factors at play include (1) Apple's competitive supply chain position and (2) TAM expansion.\nGiven robust business fundamentals, I doubt that AAPL will remain in this drawdown position for much longer.\n\nvolkankovancisoy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nOn the day that Apple (AAPL) unveiled its new set of MacBook Pro devices, shares of the Cupertino-based company jumped from a modest gain of 0.2% earlier in the morning to 1.2% at the closing bell. The obvious reasons for such an intraday spike are not hard to pinpoint: Apple introduced two new chips that, from a processing and graphics performance standpoint, promise to leave the competition in the dust.\nBut I believe that there are more subtle reasons why Apple investors may have felt particularly bullish on October 18 – and that, maybe, could fuel the rally further as the market slowly prices in the upside potential. Below are a couple of bullish factors that I have identified, which I have not seen any analyst or expert mention in more detail so far.\nApple rules the supply chain\nThe talk of the town lately has been how the pandemic, more specifically the global economies' messy recovery from it, has been causing disruption to the supply chains. The tech space has been hit particularly hard by the crisis, as component shortages alone have caused some hardware vendors to expect a drop of more than ten percentage points in annual revenue growth this year.\nConfronted with the sector-wide challenges, Apple impressed by \"flexing its supply chain muscles\" during the October product launch event. Ahead of it, I found it plausible that the highly-anticipated new set of MacBook Pro laptops would face production delays. The risk would be even higher, in my view, if Apple boldly introduced not only a new 16-inch device but also rushed to bring to market a 14-inch trim to replace last year's 13-inch model during such a turbulent environment for tech device makers.\nIn the end, Apple handily topped all my expectations. The 14.2-inch product was, in fact, launched on the same day as its 16.2-inch counterpart. Not only that, but Apple did not retire the 13-inch model, which effectively expanded (and added complexity to) Apple's PC portfolio. Lastly, but perhaps most impressively, all new products, which were fundamentally redesigned to accommodate the new M1 Pro and Max chips, will start shipping as early as next week – well ahead of the thick of the 2021 holiday shopping season.\nSource: company's video presentation\nApple has reinforced my opinion that the company is, indeed, the king of inventory management. Former COO Tim Cook, a methodical operations manager at heart who has once advocated for \"managing [tech inventory] like you're in the dairy business\", has proven his value once again as the chief executive. Whether last year's transition from Intel-based (INTC) gear to Apple silicon played a key role or not, I believe that this was the perfect time for Apple to showcase what it is capable of doing within its supply chain, given concerns around the world that are unlikely to be put to rest anytime soon.\nWidening the TAM\nThe second key, yet arguably underappreciated takeaway from Apple's October launch event was the widening of the total addressable market. Apple unveiled a 16.2-inch MacBook Pro with M1 Max chip that retails for as much as $6,100 at the highest configuration (Final Cut Pro and Logic Pro software not included in this number). At the same time, it chose not to discontinue the basic M1-equipped, much cheaper 13-inch device that was launched this time last year, allowing consumers entry into the MacBook Pro family for as little as $1,300.\nApple did not limit the TAM expansion strategy to the Mac segment only. In very similar fashion, the company also announced the third generation of AirPods during the October event, but without discontinuing the second generation device. As a result, Apple now markets its flagship wireless headsets at a starting price of only $129 vs. $159 as recently as a couple of days ago – the company had already reached towards the higher end of the spectrum, when it launched the $550 AirPods Max less than a year ago. On the services side, Apple introduced the Apple Music Voice plan at a rock-bottom price of only $5, in a clear attempt to cater to price-sensitive music lovers.\nApple has done something similar to the iPhone recently. Once upon a time, as recently as 2019, the company carried only a handful of smartphone models at a time. Last year, it widened its product offerings to include the iPhone 11, SE and Mini at the lower end; and the very pricey 12 Pro Max with three hard drive configurations at the higher end. The result was \"an iPhone for everyone\",a term coined by CEO Tim Cook himself last year – and, of course, an astonishing spike in smartphone sales in the past few quarters (see below).\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nIn summary\nI believe that this Monday's event served to reinforce the bullish thesis on Apple. Call it a super cycle or not, the company's products seem to be hitting the mark and meeting increased demand across nearly all major segments, even without the tailwinds of the stay-at-home economy. Apple has been one of the only top global tech device producers to gain market share in laptops and in smartphones lately, while it remains by far the most dominant player in smartwatches.\nI have favored an investment in the stock for as long as I remember, but admit that shares can reach valuations that are a bit hard to justify at times. Now, I believe that multiples are de-risked enough once again, as the chart below indicates. Notice how, on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA bases, AAPL trades at roughly the same pre-pandemic levels of January 2020, back when interest rates were higher and Big Tech had not yet benefited from the impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior.\nData by YCharts\nApple share price is down nearly 7% from its all-time high (to be clear, not a substantial pullback from the peak). But, given robust business fundamentals, I doubt that the stock will remain in this drawdown position for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3139,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853036934"}
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