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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853336505,"tweetId":"853336505","gmtCreate":1634773020125,"gmtModify":1634773020534,"author":{"id":3582936698066263,"idStr":"3582936698066263","authorId":3582936698066263,"authorIdStr":"3582936698066263","name":"aiyohyun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5efe05924fc38dd8db647c314e32c5b2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853336505","repostId":1151911991,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151911991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634728904,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151911991?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价高得离谱的生物技术股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151911991","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a sto","content":"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a stock. One investor might view a stock as overvalued, while another investor sees it as relatively well priced.<blockquote>情人眼里出西施，在许多情况下，股票的适当估值也是如此。一位投资者可能认为一只股票被高估，而另一位投资者则认为它的定价相对较好。</blockquote> We asked three Motley Fool contributors which biotech stocks they think are ridiculously overpriced right now. Here's why they picked&nbsp;Cassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA),Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN), and&nbsp;Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA).<blockquote>我们询问了三位 Motley Fool 撰稿人，他们认为目前哪些生物技术股票的定价高得离谱。这就是他们选择的原因木薯科学（纳斯达克股票代码：SAVA）奥库根（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN），以及现代（纳斯达克股票代码：MRNA）。</blockquote> This biotech isn't worth the trouble<blockquote>这种生物技术不值得麻烦</blockquote> Prosper Junior Bakiny(Cassava Sciences):Investors have been flocking to this clinical-stage biotech all year long, pushing its share price up by well over 600%. It's still barely into the realm of mid-cap status, though, with a market cap of roughly $2 billion as of this writing.<blockquote>Prosper Junior Bakiny（木薯科学）：投资者全年都在涌向这家临床阶段的生物技术公司，推动其股价上涨了 600% 以上。不过，截至撰写本文时，该公司的市值约为 20 亿美元，但仍勉强达到中型股的水平。</blockquote> Cassava Sciences is hardly worth that much, though.<blockquote>不过，木薯科学几乎不值钱。</blockquote> It's is currently developing Simufilam for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Positive results from a pair of clinical trials -- coupled with the&nbsp;controversial approval&nbsp;of&nbsp;Biogen's Aduhelm earlier this year -- have helped the company's stock perform as well as it has this year.<blockquote>它目前正在开发用于治疗阿尔茨海默病的Simufilam。两项临床试验的积极结果——加上有争议的批准百健今年早些时候的 Aduhelm 帮助该公司股票今年表现良好。</blockquote> But there are some reasons to worry. First, many companies have tried to develop effective drugs directed at the underlying causes of Alzheimer's disease. Nearly all of them failed, even after successful phase 2 studies.<blockquote>但有一些理由令人担忧。首先，许多公司试图开发针对阿尔茨海默病根本原因的有效药物。几乎所有的研究都失败了，即使是在成功的第二阶段研究之后。</blockquote> Even the data from Biogen's pivotal trial for Aduhelm wasn't that convincing. That's why the Food and Drug Administration is insisting on a post-approval confirmatory study for the medicine. It could be taken off the market if it fails to prove that actually helps Alzheimer's patients.<blockquote>即使是百健对 Aduhelm 的关键试验数据也没有那么令人信服。这就是为什么美国食品和药物管理局坚持对该药物进行批准后验证性研究。如果它不能证明它确实有助于阿尔茨海默氏症患者，它可能会被撤出市场。</blockquote> Of course, just because others failed to develop an effective treatment for this condition doesn't mean Cassava Sciences will too. The point is, investors should view even the positive results Simufilam has produced so far with a healthy dose of skepticism.<blockquote>当然，仅仅因为其他人未能开发出一种有效的治疗方法，并不意味着木薯科学也会。关键是，即使是 Simufilam 迄今为止取得的积极成果，投资者也应该持适度的怀疑态度。</blockquote> Results from a 12-month open-label study of Simufilam&nbsp;weren't that impressive. Then there is the citizen petition that New York-based law firm Labaton Sucharow filed with the FDA requesting that the agency halt clinical trials featuring Simufilam.&nbsp;Labaton Sucharow is representing clients with short positions in the stock, so there are some financial incentives for it to target Cassava. Still, this dark cloud will continue to hover above the biotech for a while.<blockquote>Simufilam 为期 12 个月的开放标签研究结果并不令人印象深刻。然后是纽约律师事务所 Labaton Sucharow 向 FDA 提交的公民请愿书，要求该机构停止 Simufilam 的临床试验。Labaton Sucharow 代表的是持有该股票空头头寸的客户，因此它有一定的经济动机瞄准木薯。尽管如此，这片乌云仍将在生物技术上空盘旋一段时间。</blockquote> Add these to the other headwinds that Cassava Sciences could run into, including the very real possibility that Simufilam will fail miserably in its phase 3 clinical trials or that it will encounter regulatory setbacks, and this biotech stock looks far too risky to invest in, even at current levels.<blockquote>除此之外，Cassava Sciences 可能遇到的其他阻力，包括 Simufilam 在 3 期临床试验中惨败或遭遇监管挫折的可能性，而且这只生物技术股票看起来风险太大，无法投资，即使在目前的水平上也是如此。</blockquote> Ocugen is too risky to take a chance on<blockquote>Ocugen 风险太大，不能冒险</blockquote> David Jagielski(Ocugen):This company became popular among retail investors this year based on the hopes that it will be the next COVID-19 vaccine stock to make it big. There's just one problem: Ocugen's success in that regard will hinge on the approval of Covaxin, which it's co-developing with Indian biotech company Bharat Biotech.<blockquote>David Jagielski（Ocugen）：这家公司今年受到散户投资者的欢迎，因为人们希望它将成为下一只做大的 COVID-19 疫苗股票。只有一个问题：Ocugen 在这方面的成功将取决于科瓦克辛的批准，该公司正在与印度生物技术公司 Bharat Biotech 共同开发该公司。</blockquote> Ocugen announced in June that it would pursue a Biologics License Application for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S., based on a recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration. That involves a longer process than getting an Emergency Use Authorization, and implies that the agency may have been unwilling to grant emergency approval for the vaccine.<blockquote>Ocugen 于 6 月宣布，根据美国食品和药物管理局的建议，将在美国为其新冠肺炎候选疫苗申请生物制剂许可证。这涉及比获得紧急使用授权更长的过程，并意味着该机构可能不愿意批准疫苗的紧急批准。</blockquote> There was more positive news last week when&nbsp;India granted Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxinto be used to inoculate children ages 2 to 18. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for Ocugen -- it only shares in the profits that the vaccine makes in Canada and the U.S.<blockquote>上周有更多积极的消息，印度授予Covaxinto紧急使用授权，用于为2至18岁的儿童接种疫苗。不幸的是，这对 Ocugen 来说并不意味着什么——它只分享该疫苗在加拿大和美国产生的利润。</blockquote> But even though that good news out of India will have no notable impact on Ocugen's business, its stock price jumped anyway, topping the $10 mark for the first time in months. The performance of the company and the stock have simply not been connected. Through the first six months of this year, Ocugen has reported&nbsp;no revenue. Yet its shares have risen by more than 350% year to date.<blockquote>尽管来自印度的好消息不会对 Ocugen 的业务产生明显影响，但其股价还是上涨了，几个月来首次突破 10 美元大关。公司业绩和股票根本没有联系。今年前六个月，Ocugen 报告称无收入然而，今年迄今为止，其股价已上涨超过350%。</blockquote> The good news is that there is still hope for the business beyond just its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is moving forward on its gene-therapy treatment, OCU400, and it plans to begin clinical studies on it later this year. However, the human trials phase of OCU400's development, even if it's ultimately successful, will take years.<blockquote>好消息是，除了 COVID-19 疫苗之外，该业务仍有希望。该公司正在推进其基因治疗疗法 OCU400，并计划在今年晚些时候开始对其进行临床研究。然而，OCU400开发的人体试验阶段，即使最终成功，也需要数年时间。</blockquote> Given its market cap of $1.6 billion, I think that investors are taking on a ton of risk by buying shares of Ocugen. My view is that this is akin to gambling onpenny stocks, except in those cases, at least, valuations can be incredibly low. In Ocugen's case, the stock may have limited upside.<blockquote>鉴于其 16 亿美元的市值，我认为投资者购买 Ocugen 股票是在承担很大的风险。我的观点是，这类似于在细价股上赌博，除了至少在这些情况下，估值可能会低得令人难以置信。就 Ocugen 而言，该股的上涨空间可能有限。</blockquote> A great company that's just too expensive<blockquote>一家伟大的公司，但太贵了</blockquote> Keith Speights(Moderna): Most of the critiques that Prosper and David had for Cassava and Ocugen don't apply to Moderna at all. The company already has a huge blockbuster on the market with its COVID-19 vaccine. It's rolling in profits as sales for the vaccine continue to soar.<blockquote>基思·斯佩茨（现代）Prosper和David对Cassava和Ocugen的大多数批评根本不适用于Moderna。该公司的 COVID-19 疫苗已经在市场上取得了巨大的成功。随着疫苗销量持续飙升，该公司利润不断增长。</blockquote> Moderna even has a promising pipeline. It hopes to soon advance cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate mRNA-1647 into late-stage testing. The company is evaluating an experimental flu vaccine in early-stage testing and hopes to develop a combination COVID-19/flu vaccine. In total, the company has 17 clinical-stage programs.<blockquote>Moderna甚至有一个很有前途的管道。它希望很快将巨细胞病毒（CMV）候选疫苗mRNA-1647推进到后期测试。该公司正在评估一种实验性流感疫苗的早期测试，并希望开发一种新冠肺炎/流感疫苗的组合。该公司总共有17个临床阶段的项目。</blockquote> I think that Moderna's messenger RNA (mRNA) platform could produce many blockbuster vaccines and therapies over the coming decades. My view is that it's a great company. However, I also think that its shares are just too expensive now.<blockquote>我认为Moderna的信使RNA（mRNA）平台可以在未来几十年生产出许多重磅疫苗和疗法。我的观点是这是一家伟大的公司。不过，我也认为它的股票现在太贵了。</blockquote> Some might point to Moderna's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.2 as evidence that I'm dead wrong about the stock being overvalued. However, the problem with this metric is that it only looks one year into the future. Moderna's CEO has&nbsp;predicted that the pandemic could effectively end by late 2022. If he's right, I suspect that the company's revenue and earnings could fall off significantly after that.<blockquote>有些人可能会指出 Moderna 的远期市盈率为 11.2，这证明我对该股被高估的看法大错特错。然而，这个指标的问题是它只展望未来一年。Moderna 的首席执行官预测，疫情可能会在 2022 年底有效结束。如果他是对的，我怀疑此后公司的收入和盈利可能会大幅下降。</blockquote> Remember that Moderna's enormous success so far has resulted from a two-dose initial regimen of its COVID-19 vaccine. Boosters of that vaccine will only require one shot. More importantly, there's uncertainty about how frequently boosters will be needed. Governments around the world could also become more price-conscious about what they'll pay for COVID-19 vaccines in a post-pandemic environment.<blockquote>请记住，Moderna 迄今为止的巨大成功源于其 COVID-19 疫苗的两剂初始方案。该疫苗的加强剂只需要注射一针。更重要的是，需要加强剂的频率存在不确定性。世界各国政府也可能变得更加注重在大流行后的环境中为新冠肺炎疫苗支付的价格。</blockquote> Perhaps things will unfold in a way that justifies Moderna's current valuation. For now, though, I think there are more outcomes that could cause this stock to fall than there are catalysts that could make it soar again.<blockquote>也许事情的发展会证明 Moderna 目前的估值是合理的。不过，就目前而言，我认为可能导致该股下跌的结果多于可能导致其再次飙升的催化剂。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价高得离谱的生物技术股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价高得离谱的生物技术股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-10-20 19:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBeauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a stock. One investor might view a stock as overvalued, while another investor sees it as relatively well priced.<blockquote>情人眼里出西施，在许多情况下，股票的适当估值也是如此。一位投资者可能认为一只股票被高估，而另一位投资者则认为它的定价相对较好。</blockquote> We asked three Motley Fool contributors which biotech stocks they think are ridiculously overpriced right now. Here's why they picked&nbsp;Cassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA),Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN), and&nbsp;Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA).<blockquote>我们询问了三位 Motley Fool 撰稿人，他们认为目前哪些生物技术股票的定价高得离谱。这就是他们选择的原因木薯科学（纳斯达克股票代码：SAVA）奥库根（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN），以及现代（纳斯达克股票代码：MRNA）。</blockquote> This biotech isn't worth the trouble<blockquote>这种生物技术不值得麻烦</blockquote> Prosper Junior Bakiny(Cassava Sciences):Investors have been flocking to this clinical-stage biotech all year long, pushing its share price up by well over 600%. It's still barely into the realm of mid-cap status, though, with a market cap of roughly $2 billion as of this writing.<blockquote>Prosper Junior Bakiny（木薯科学）：投资者全年都在涌向这家临床阶段的生物技术公司，推动其股价上涨了 600% 以上。不过，截至撰写本文时，该公司的市值约为 20 亿美元，但仍勉强达到中型股的水平。</blockquote> Cassava Sciences is hardly worth that much, though.<blockquote>不过，木薯科学几乎不值钱。</blockquote> It's is currently developing Simufilam for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Positive results from a pair of clinical trials -- coupled with the&nbsp;controversial approval&nbsp;of&nbsp;Biogen's Aduhelm earlier this year -- have helped the company's stock perform as well as it has this year.<blockquote>它目前正在开发用于治疗阿尔茨海默病的Simufilam。两项临床试验的积极结果——加上有争议的批准百健今年早些时候的 Aduhelm 帮助该公司股票今年表现良好。</blockquote> But there are some reasons to worry. First, many companies have tried to develop effective drugs directed at the underlying causes of Alzheimer's disease. Nearly all of them failed, even after successful phase 2 studies.<blockquote>但有一些理由令人担忧。首先，许多公司试图开发针对阿尔茨海默病根本原因的有效药物。几乎所有的研究都失败了，即使是在成功的第二阶段研究之后。</blockquote> Even the data from Biogen's pivotal trial for Aduhelm wasn't that convincing. That's why the Food and Drug Administration is insisting on a post-approval confirmatory study for the medicine. It could be taken off the market if it fails to prove that actually helps Alzheimer's patients.<blockquote>即使是百健对 Aduhelm 的关键试验数据也没有那么令人信服。这就是为什么美国食品和药物管理局坚持对该药物进行批准后验证性研究。如果它不能证明它确实有助于阿尔茨海默氏症患者，它可能会被撤出市场。</blockquote> Of course, just because others failed to develop an effective treatment for this condition doesn't mean Cassava Sciences will too. The point is, investors should view even the positive results Simufilam has produced so far with a healthy dose of skepticism.<blockquote>当然，仅仅因为其他人未能开发出一种有效的治疗方法，并不意味着木薯科学也会。关键是，即使是 Simufilam 迄今为止取得的积极成果，投资者也应该持适度的怀疑态度。</blockquote> Results from a 12-month open-label study of Simufilam&nbsp;weren't that impressive. Then there is the citizen petition that New York-based law firm Labaton Sucharow filed with the FDA requesting that the agency halt clinical trials featuring Simufilam.&nbsp;Labaton Sucharow is representing clients with short positions in the stock, so there are some financial incentives for it to target Cassava. Still, this dark cloud will continue to hover above the biotech for a while.<blockquote>Simufilam 为期 12 个月的开放标签研究结果并不令人印象深刻。然后是纽约律师事务所 Labaton Sucharow 向 FDA 提交的公民请愿书，要求该机构停止 Simufilam 的临床试验。Labaton Sucharow 代表的是持有该股票空头头寸的客户，因此它有一定的经济动机瞄准木薯。尽管如此，这片乌云仍将在生物技术上空盘旋一段时间。</blockquote> Add these to the other headwinds that Cassava Sciences could run into, including the very real possibility that Simufilam will fail miserably in its phase 3 clinical trials or that it will encounter regulatory setbacks, and this biotech stock looks far too risky to invest in, even at current levels.<blockquote>除此之外，Cassava Sciences 可能遇到的其他阻力，包括 Simufilam 在 3 期临床试验中惨败或遭遇监管挫折的可能性，而且这只生物技术股票看起来风险太大，无法投资，即使在目前的水平上也是如此。</blockquote> Ocugen is too risky to take a chance on<blockquote>Ocugen 风险太大，不能冒险</blockquote> David Jagielski(Ocugen):This company became popular among retail investors this year based on the hopes that it will be the next COVID-19 vaccine stock to make it big. There's just one problem: Ocugen's success in that regard will hinge on the approval of Covaxin, which it's co-developing with Indian biotech company Bharat Biotech.<blockquote>David Jagielski（Ocugen）：这家公司今年受到散户投资者的欢迎，因为人们希望它将成为下一只做大的 COVID-19 疫苗股票。只有一个问题：Ocugen 在这方面的成功将取决于科瓦克辛的批准，该公司正在与印度生物技术公司 Bharat Biotech 共同开发该公司。</blockquote> Ocugen announced in June that it would pursue a Biologics License Application for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S., based on a recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration. That involves a longer process than getting an Emergency Use Authorization, and implies that the agency may have been unwilling to grant emergency approval for the vaccine.<blockquote>Ocugen 于 6 月宣布，根据美国食品和药物管理局的建议，将在美国为其新冠肺炎候选疫苗申请生物制剂许可证。这涉及比获得紧急使用授权更长的过程，并意味着该机构可能不愿意批准疫苗的紧急批准。</blockquote> There was more positive news last week when&nbsp;India granted Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxinto be used to inoculate children ages 2 to 18. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for Ocugen -- it only shares in the profits that the vaccine makes in Canada and the U.S.<blockquote>上周有更多积极的消息，印度授予Covaxinto紧急使用授权，用于为2至18岁的儿童接种疫苗。不幸的是，这对 Ocugen 来说并不意味着什么——它只分享该疫苗在加拿大和美国产生的利润。</blockquote> But even though that good news out of India will have no notable impact on Ocugen's business, its stock price jumped anyway, topping the $10 mark for the first time in months. The performance of the company and the stock have simply not been connected. Through the first six months of this year, Ocugen has reported&nbsp;no revenue. Yet its shares have risen by more than 350% year to date.<blockquote>尽管来自印度的好消息不会对 Ocugen 的业务产生明显影响，但其股价还是上涨了，几个月来首次突破 10 美元大关。公司业绩和股票根本没有联系。今年前六个月，Ocugen 报告称无收入然而，今年迄今为止，其股价已上涨超过350%。</blockquote> The good news is that there is still hope for the business beyond just its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is moving forward on its gene-therapy treatment, OCU400, and it plans to begin clinical studies on it later this year. However, the human trials phase of OCU400's development, even if it's ultimately successful, will take years.<blockquote>好消息是，除了 COVID-19 疫苗之外，该业务仍有希望。该公司正在推进其基因治疗疗法 OCU400，并计划在今年晚些时候开始对其进行临床研究。然而，OCU400开发的人体试验阶段，即使最终成功，也需要数年时间。</blockquote> Given its market cap of $1.6 billion, I think that investors are taking on a ton of risk by buying shares of Ocugen. My view is that this is akin to gambling onpenny stocks, except in those cases, at least, valuations can be incredibly low. In Ocugen's case, the stock may have limited upside.<blockquote>鉴于其 16 亿美元的市值，我认为投资者购买 Ocugen 股票是在承担很大的风险。我的观点是，这类似于在细价股上赌博，除了至少在这些情况下，估值可能会低得令人难以置信。就 Ocugen 而言，该股的上涨空间可能有限。</blockquote> A great company that's just too expensive<blockquote>一家伟大的公司，但太贵了</blockquote> Keith Speights(Moderna): Most of the critiques that Prosper and David had for Cassava and Ocugen don't apply to Moderna at all. The company already has a huge blockbuster on the market with its COVID-19 vaccine. It's rolling in profits as sales for the vaccine continue to soar.<blockquote>基思·斯佩茨（现代）Prosper和David对Cassava和Ocugen的大多数批评根本不适用于Moderna。该公司的 COVID-19 疫苗已经在市场上取得了巨大的成功。随着疫苗销量持续飙升，该公司利润不断增长。</blockquote> Moderna even has a promising pipeline. It hopes to soon advance cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate mRNA-1647 into late-stage testing. The company is evaluating an experimental flu vaccine in early-stage testing and hopes to develop a combination COVID-19/flu vaccine. In total, the company has 17 clinical-stage programs.<blockquote>Moderna甚至有一个很有前途的管道。它希望很快将巨细胞病毒（CMV）候选疫苗mRNA-1647推进到后期测试。该公司正在评估一种实验性流感疫苗的早期测试，并希望开发一种新冠肺炎/流感疫苗的组合。该公司总共有17个临床阶段的项目。</blockquote> I think that Moderna's messenger RNA (mRNA) platform could produce many blockbuster vaccines and therapies over the coming decades. My view is that it's a great company. However, I also think that its shares are just too expensive now.<blockquote>我认为Moderna的信使RNA（mRNA）平台可以在未来几十年生产出许多重磅疫苗和疗法。我的观点是这是一家伟大的公司。不过，我也认为它的股票现在太贵了。</blockquote> Some might point to Moderna's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.2 as evidence that I'm dead wrong about the stock being overvalued. However, the problem with this metric is that it only looks one year into the future. Moderna's CEO has&nbsp;predicted that the pandemic could effectively end by late 2022. If he's right, I suspect that the company's revenue and earnings could fall off significantly after that.<blockquote>有些人可能会指出 Moderna 的远期市盈率为 11.2，这证明我对该股被高估的看法大错特错。然而，这个指标的问题是它只展望未来一年。Moderna 的首席执行官预测，疫情可能会在 2022 年底有效结束。如果他是对的，我怀疑此后公司的收入和盈利可能会大幅下降。</blockquote> Remember that Moderna's enormous success so far has resulted from a two-dose initial regimen of its COVID-19 vaccine. Boosters of that vaccine will only require one shot. More importantly, there's uncertainty about how frequently boosters will be needed. Governments around the world could also become more price-conscious about what they'll pay for COVID-19 vaccines in a post-pandemic environment.<blockquote>请记住，Moderna 迄今为止的巨大成功源于其 COVID-19 疫苗的两剂初始方案。该疫苗的加强剂只需要注射一针。更重要的是，需要加强剂的频率存在不确定性。世界各国政府也可能变得更加注重在大流行后的环境中为新冠肺炎疫苗支付的价格。</blockquote> Perhaps things will unfold in a way that justifies Moderna's current valuation. For now, though, I think there are more outcomes that could cause this stock to fall than there are catalysts that could make it soar again.<blockquote>也许事情的发展会证明 Moderna 目前的估值是合理的。不过，就目前而言，我认为可能导致该股下跌的结果多于可能导致其再次飙升的催化剂。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/20/3-biotech-stocks-that-are-ridiculously-overpriced/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/20/3-biotech-stocks-that-are-ridiculously-overpriced/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151911991","content_text":"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a stock. One investor might view a stock as overvalued, while another investor sees it as relatively well priced.\nWe asked three Motley Fool contributors which biotech stocks they think are ridiculously overpriced right now. Here's why they picked Cassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA),Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN), and Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA).\nThis biotech isn't worth the trouble\nProsper Junior Bakiny(Cassava Sciences):Investors have been flocking to this clinical-stage biotech all year long, pushing its share price up by well over 600%. It's still barely into the realm of mid-cap status, though, with a market cap of roughly $2 billion as of this writing.\nCassava Sciences is hardly worth that much, though.\nIt's is currently developing Simufilam for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Positive results from a pair of clinical trials -- coupled with the controversial approval of Biogen's Aduhelm earlier this year -- have helped the company's stock perform as well as it has this year.\nBut there are some reasons to worry. First, many companies have tried to develop effective drugs directed at the underlying causes of Alzheimer's disease. Nearly all of them failed, even after successful phase 2 studies.\nEven the data from Biogen's pivotal trial for Aduhelm wasn't that convincing. That's why the Food and Drug Administration is insisting on a post-approval confirmatory study for the medicine. It could be taken off the market if it fails to prove that actually helps Alzheimer's patients.\nOf course, just because others failed to develop an effective treatment for this condition doesn't mean Cassava Sciences will too. The point is, investors should view even the positive results Simufilam has produced so far with a healthy dose of skepticism.\nResults from a 12-month open-label study of Simufilam weren't that impressive. Then there is the citizen petition that New York-based law firm Labaton Sucharow filed with the FDA requesting that the agency halt clinical trials featuring Simufilam. Labaton Sucharow is representing clients with short positions in the stock, so there are some financial incentives for it to target Cassava. Still, this dark cloud will continue to hover above the biotech for a while.\nAdd these to the other headwinds that Cassava Sciences could run into, including the very real possibility that Simufilam will fail miserably in its phase 3 clinical trials or that it will encounter regulatory setbacks, and this biotech stock looks far too risky to invest in, even at current levels.\nOcugen is too risky to take a chance on\nDavid Jagielski(Ocugen):This company became popular among retail investors this year based on the hopes that it will be the next COVID-19 vaccine stock to make it big. There's just one problem: Ocugen's success in that regard will hinge on the approval of Covaxin, which it's co-developing with Indian biotech company Bharat Biotech.\nOcugen announced in June that it would pursue a Biologics License Application for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S., based on a recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration. That involves a longer process than getting an Emergency Use Authorization, and implies that the agency may have been unwilling to grant emergency approval for the vaccine.\nThere was more positive news last week when India granted Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxinto be used to inoculate children ages 2 to 18. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for Ocugen -- it only shares in the profits that the vaccine makes in Canada and the U.S.\nBut even though that good news out of India will have no notable impact on Ocugen's business, its stock price jumped anyway, topping the $10 mark for the first time in months. The performance of the company and the stock have simply not been connected. Through the first six months of this year, Ocugen has reported no revenue. Yet its shares have risen by more than 350% year to date.\nThe good news is that there is still hope for the business beyond just its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is moving forward on its gene-therapy treatment, OCU400, and it plans to begin clinical studies on it later this year. However, the human trials phase of OCU400's development, even if it's ultimately successful, will take years.\nGiven its market cap of $1.6 billion, I think that investors are taking on a ton of risk by buying shares of Ocugen. My view is that this is akin to gambling onpenny stocks, except in those cases, at least, valuations can be incredibly low. In Ocugen's case, the stock may have limited upside.\nA great company that's just too expensive\nKeith Speights(Moderna): Most of the critiques that Prosper and David had for Cassava and Ocugen don't apply to Moderna at all. The company already has a huge blockbuster on the market with its COVID-19 vaccine. It's rolling in profits as sales for the vaccine continue to soar.\nModerna even has a promising pipeline. It hopes to soon advance cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate mRNA-1647 into late-stage testing. The company is evaluating an experimental flu vaccine in early-stage testing and hopes to develop a combination COVID-19/flu vaccine. In total, the company has 17 clinical-stage programs.\nI think that Moderna's messenger RNA (mRNA) platform could produce many blockbuster vaccines and therapies over the coming decades. My view is that it's a great company. However, I also think that its shares are just too expensive now.\nSome might point to Moderna's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.2 as evidence that I'm dead wrong about the stock being overvalued. However, the problem with this metric is that it only looks one year into the future. Moderna's CEO has predicted that the pandemic could effectively end by late 2022. If he's right, I suspect that the company's revenue and earnings could fall off significantly after that.\nRemember that Moderna's enormous success so far has resulted from a two-dose initial regimen of its COVID-19 vaccine. Boosters of that vaccine will only require one shot. More importantly, there's uncertainty about how frequently boosters will be needed. Governments around the world could also become more price-conscious about what they'll pay for COVID-19 vaccines in a post-pandemic environment.\nPerhaps things will unfold in a way that justifies Moderna's current valuation. For now, though, I think there are more outcomes that could cause this stock to fall than there are catalysts that could make it soar again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SAVA":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4016,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853336505"}