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2021-10-21

Too big a brand. Should focus as part of long term investment portfolio

Apple Stock: Can't Buy the Dip? Go for Lower Risk.<blockquote>苹果股票：不能逢低买入？追求低风险。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853343268,"tweetId":"853343268","gmtCreate":1634776070282,"gmtModify":1634776083912,"author":{"id":4088899824391120,"idStr":"4088899824391120","authorId":4088899824391120,"authorIdStr":"4088899824391120","name":"vaNzZz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08b17230db77377d1685c3aa91473639","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":37,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Too big a brand. Should focus as part of long term investment portfolio</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Too big a brand. Should focus as part of long term investment portfolio</body></html>","text":"Too big a brand. Should focus as part of long term investment portfolio","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853343268","repostId":1156737331,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156737331","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634774060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156737331?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 07:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Can't Buy the Dip? Go for Lower Risk.<blockquote>苹果股票：不能逢低买入？追求低风险。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156737331","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven continues to think that now is a good time to own Apple stock. We present another re","content":"The Apple Maven continues to think that now is a good time to own Apple stock. We present another reason why this could be the case – think lower risks, rather than higher potential returns.<blockquote>这位苹果专家仍然认为现在是持有苹果股票的好时机。我们提出了另一个可能出现这种情况的原因——考虑较低的风险，而不是较高的潜在回报。</blockquote> Apple stock&nbsp;continues to climb towards all-time highs, levels not seen since around six weeks ago. Even though the opportunity to buy the dip has all but vanished at this point, as the drawdown narrows to less than 5%, the Apple Maven still thinks that now is a good time to own AAPL shares.<blockquote>苹果股价继续攀升至历史高点，这是大约六周前以来的最高水平。尽管此时逢低买入的机会几乎已经消失，但随着跌幅收窄至5%以下，这位苹果专家仍然认为现在是持有AAPL股票的好时机。</blockquote> Today, we present one more reason that justifies owning the Cupertino company’s stock now. Rather than higher potential returns, we look at the bullish case from the perspective of lower risks.<blockquote>今天，我们提出另一个理由来证明现在持有库比蒂诺公司的股票是合理的。我们从较低风险的角度看待看涨的情况，而不是更高的潜在回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.<blockquote>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> Volatility drops<blockquote>波动性下降</blockquote> When it comes to investing, the Apple Maven sees the two sides of the coin: risk and return. Much attention tends to be directed at the latter: will gains be rich going forward? Arguably not enough time is spent discussing the risk that needs to be assumed to capture the higher expected returns.<blockquote>说到投资，这位苹果专家看到了硬币的两面：风险和回报。很多注意力往往集中在后者：未来的收益会丰厚吗？可以说，没有足够的时间来讨论获得更高预期回报所需承担的风险。</blockquote> One common measure of risk is volatility: in other words, how much the stock price tends to swing from period to period (say, day to day), measured statistically by one standard deviation. The lower the number, the better. AAPL’s volatility over the past decade has averaged a bit more than 28%, which is consistent with the company’s profile as a higher-growth, mega-cap tech name.<blockquote>风险的一个常见衡量标准是波动性：换句话说，股票价格在不同时期（比如每天）的波动程度，通过一个标准差进行统计测量。数字越低越好。AAPL过去十年的平均波动性略高于28%，这与该公司作为高增长、大型科技公司的形象一致。</blockquote> Throughout most of 2020, Apple stock’s rolling one-month volatility stayed above this long-term average – and even reached peaks of more than 100% during the thick of the COVID-19 crisis! But lately, jittery market action has given way to steadier, more predictable price movements. See chart below.<blockquote>在2020年的大部分时间里，苹果股票的一个月滚动波动率都保持在这一长期平均水平之上，甚至在COVID-19危机最严重的时候达到了100%以上的峰值！但最近，紧张的市场行为已经让位于更稳定、更可预测的价格走势。见下图。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed2d71410be5264bb7596ca191a0578\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: AAPL volatility of daily returns.<blockquote>图2：AAPL每日回报波动性。</blockquote> Another way to think of risk is to consider the worst day of performance over a given period. Considering a rolling one-month window, Apple stock has produced steepest daily losses of -3.2% over the past ten years, on average. But in the past month, that figure dropped to -2.5%.<blockquote>另一种思考风险的方法是考虑给定时期内表现最差的一天。考虑到一个月的滚动窗口，苹果股票在过去十年中平均单日跌幅为-3.2%。但在过去一个月，这一数字降至-2.5%。</blockquote> The chart below shows that the worst daily declines in Apple shares (again, on a rolling one-month basis) have been moderating lately. In fact, since late Q3 of last year, the figure has declined consistently from -8% in September 2020 to just short of -4% in the summer of 2021 to better than -3% now.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果股价最严重的单日跌幅（同样是按一个月滚动计算）最近一直在放缓。事实上，自去年第三季度末以来，这一数字一直从2020年9月的-8%持续下降到2021年夏季的略低于-4%，再到现在的好于-3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60d4184f2edec907b1ec8942826d56c\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 3: AAPL worst day, rolling 1-month.<blockquote>图3：AAPL最糟糕的一天，滚动1个月。</blockquote> Why less risky?<blockquote>为什么风险更小？</blockquote> There are several possible reasons why investing in AAPL has become less risky lately. First, the company has proven that it can execute very well prior to, during, and after the thick of the pandemic. When some tech companies failed to deliver great results without the stay-at-home tailwinds (think Amazon in Q2), Apple has managed to wow investors each quarter.<blockquote>最近投资AAPL的风险降低有几个可能的原因。首先，该公司已经证明，它可以在疫情最严重的时期之前、期间和之后很好地执行。当一些科技公司在没有呆在家里的推动下未能取得出色业绩时（想想第二季度的亚马逊），苹果每个季度都成功地让投资者惊叹不已。</blockquote> COVID-19 dominated the conversation during most of 2020. Global economies recovering from the pandemic has now become a major concern for investors in 2021. Nearly agnostic to it all is Apple, which helps to justify lower stock price volatility in the recent past.<blockquote>在2020年的大部分时间里，新冠肺炎主导了对话。全球经济从疫情复苏现已成为投资者2021年的主要担忧。苹果几乎与这一切无关，这有助于证明近期股价波动性较低的合理性。</blockquote> The other plausible justification is a bit less clear, if not more controversial or contrarian. The Apple Maven has argued that treasury yields (i.e. longer-term interest rates) have&nbsp;climbed a bit too much, too fast. As the market ponders whether the risk of hawkish monetary policy may have already been priced into assets, it is possible that Apple stock has benefited through reduced volatility in the past weeks.<blockquote>另一个看似合理的理由不太清楚，如果不是更有争议或相反的话。这位苹果专家认为，美国国债收益率（即长期利率）攀升得有点太多、太快。当市场思考鹰派货币政策的风险是否已经反映在资产中时，苹果股票可能在过去几周因波动性降低而受益。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Can't Buy the Dip? Go for Lower Risk.<blockquote>苹果股票：不能逢低买入？追求低风险。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Can't Buy the Dip? Go for Lower Risk.<blockquote>苹果股票：不能逢低买入？追求低风险。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-10-21 07:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Apple Maven continues to think that now is a good time to own Apple stock. We present another reason why this could be the case – think lower risks, rather than higher potential returns.<blockquote>这位苹果专家仍然认为现在是持有苹果股票的好时机。我们提出了另一个可能出现这种情况的原因——考虑较低的风险，而不是较高的潜在回报。</blockquote> Apple stock&nbsp;continues to climb towards all-time highs, levels not seen since around six weeks ago. Even though the opportunity to buy the dip has all but vanished at this point, as the drawdown narrows to less than 5%, the Apple Maven still thinks that now is a good time to own AAPL shares.<blockquote>苹果股价继续攀升至历史高点，这是大约六周前以来的最高水平。尽管此时逢低买入的机会几乎已经消失，但随着跌幅收窄至5%以下，这位苹果专家仍然认为现在是持有AAPL股票的好时机。</blockquote> Today, we present one more reason that justifies owning the Cupertino company’s stock now. Rather than higher potential returns, we look at the bullish case from the perspective of lower risks.<blockquote>今天，我们提出另一个理由来证明现在持有库比蒂诺公司的股票是合理的。我们从较低风险的角度看待看涨的情况，而不是更高的潜在回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.<blockquote>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</blockquote> Volatility drops<blockquote>波动性下降</blockquote> When it comes to investing, the Apple Maven sees the two sides of the coin: risk and return. Much attention tends to be directed at the latter: will gains be rich going forward? Arguably not enough time is spent discussing the risk that needs to be assumed to capture the higher expected returns.<blockquote>说到投资，这位苹果专家看到了硬币的两面：风险和回报。很多注意力往往集中在后者：未来的收益会丰厚吗？可以说，没有足够的时间来讨论获得更高预期回报所需承担的风险。</blockquote> One common measure of risk is volatility: in other words, how much the stock price tends to swing from period to period (say, day to day), measured statistically by one standard deviation. The lower the number, the better. AAPL’s volatility over the past decade has averaged a bit more than 28%, which is consistent with the company’s profile as a higher-growth, mega-cap tech name.<blockquote>风险的一个常见衡量标准是波动性：换句话说，股票价格在不同时期（比如每天）的波动程度，通过一个标准差进行统计测量。数字越低越好。AAPL过去十年的平均波动性略高于28%，这与该公司作为高增长、大型科技公司的形象一致。</blockquote> Throughout most of 2020, Apple stock’s rolling one-month volatility stayed above this long-term average – and even reached peaks of more than 100% during the thick of the COVID-19 crisis! But lately, jittery market action has given way to steadier, more predictable price movements. See chart below.<blockquote>在2020年的大部分时间里，苹果股票的一个月滚动波动率都保持在这一长期平均水平之上，甚至在COVID-19危机最严重的时候达到了100%以上的峰值！但最近，紧张的市场行为已经让位于更稳定、更可预测的价格走势。见下图。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed2d71410be5264bb7596ca191a0578\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: AAPL volatility of daily returns.<blockquote>图2：AAPL每日回报波动性。</blockquote> Another way to think of risk is to consider the worst day of performance over a given period. Considering a rolling one-month window, Apple stock has produced steepest daily losses of -3.2% over the past ten years, on average. But in the past month, that figure dropped to -2.5%.<blockquote>另一种思考风险的方法是考虑给定时期内表现最差的一天。考虑到一个月的滚动窗口，苹果股票在过去十年中平均单日跌幅为-3.2%。但在过去一个月，这一数字降至-2.5%。</blockquote> The chart below shows that the worst daily declines in Apple shares (again, on a rolling one-month basis) have been moderating lately. In fact, since late Q3 of last year, the figure has declined consistently from -8% in September 2020 to just short of -4% in the summer of 2021 to better than -3% now.<blockquote>下图显示，苹果股价最严重的单日跌幅（同样是按一个月滚动计算）最近一直在放缓。事实上，自去年第三季度末以来，这一数字一直从2020年9月的-8%持续下降到2021年夏季的略低于-4%，再到现在的好于-3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60d4184f2edec907b1ec8942826d56c\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 3: AAPL worst day, rolling 1-month.<blockquote>图3：AAPL最糟糕的一天，滚动1个月。</blockquote> Why less risky?<blockquote>为什么风险更小？</blockquote> There are several possible reasons why investing in AAPL has become less risky lately. First, the company has proven that it can execute very well prior to, during, and after the thick of the pandemic. When some tech companies failed to deliver great results without the stay-at-home tailwinds (think Amazon in Q2), Apple has managed to wow investors each quarter.<blockquote>最近投资AAPL的风险降低有几个可能的原因。首先，该公司已经证明，它可以在疫情最严重的时期之前、期间和之后很好地执行。当一些科技公司在没有呆在家里的推动下未能取得出色业绩时（想想第二季度的亚马逊），苹果每个季度都成功地让投资者惊叹不已。</blockquote> COVID-19 dominated the conversation during most of 2020. Global economies recovering from the pandemic has now become a major concern for investors in 2021. Nearly agnostic to it all is Apple, which helps to justify lower stock price volatility in the recent past.<blockquote>在2020年的大部分时间里，新冠肺炎主导了对话。全球经济从疫情复苏现已成为投资者2021年的主要担忧。苹果几乎与这一切无关，这有助于证明近期股价波动性较低的合理性。</blockquote> The other plausible justification is a bit less clear, if not more controversial or contrarian. The Apple Maven has argued that treasury yields (i.e. longer-term interest rates) have&nbsp;climbed a bit too much, too fast. As the market ponders whether the risk of hawkish monetary policy may have already been priced into assets, it is possible that Apple stock has benefited through reduced volatility in the past weeks.<blockquote>另一个看似合理的理由不太清楚，如果不是更有争议或相反的话。这位苹果专家认为，美国国债收益率（即长期利率）攀升得有点太多、太快。当市场思考鹰派货币政策的风险是否已经反映在资产中时，苹果股票可能在过去几周因波动性降低而受益。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/one-more-reason-to-buy-apple-stock-today\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/one-more-reason-to-buy-apple-stock-today","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156737331","content_text":"The Apple Maven continues to think that now is a good time to own Apple stock. We present another reason why this could be the case – think lower risks, rather than higher potential returns.\nApple stock continues to climb towards all-time highs, levels not seen since around six weeks ago. Even though the opportunity to buy the dip has all but vanished at this point, as the drawdown narrows to less than 5%, the Apple Maven still thinks that now is a good time to own AAPL shares.\nToday, we present one more reason that justifies owning the Cupertino company’s stock now. Rather than higher potential returns, we look at the bullish case from the perspective of lower risks.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.\nVolatility drops\nWhen it comes to investing, the Apple Maven sees the two sides of the coin: risk and return. Much attention tends to be directed at the latter: will gains be rich going forward? Arguably not enough time is spent discussing the risk that needs to be assumed to capture the higher expected returns.\nOne common measure of risk is volatility: in other words, how much the stock price tends to swing from period to period (say, day to day), measured statistically by one standard deviation. The lower the number, the better. AAPL’s volatility over the past decade has averaged a bit more than 28%, which is consistent with the company’s profile as a higher-growth, mega-cap tech name.\nThroughout most of 2020, Apple stock’s rolling one-month volatility stayed above this long-term average – and even reached peaks of more than 100% during the thick of the COVID-19 crisis! But lately, jittery market action has given way to steadier, more predictable price movements. See chart below.\nFigure 2: AAPL volatility of daily returns.\nAnother way to think of risk is to consider the worst day of performance over a given period. Considering a rolling one-month window, Apple stock has produced steepest daily losses of -3.2% over the past ten years, on average. But in the past month, that figure dropped to -2.5%.\nThe chart below shows that the worst daily declines in Apple shares (again, on a rolling one-month basis) have been moderating lately. In fact, since late Q3 of last year, the figure has declined consistently from -8% in September 2020 to just short of -4% in the summer of 2021 to better than -3% now.\nFigure 3: AAPL worst day, rolling 1-month.\nWhy less risky?\nThere are several possible reasons why investing in AAPL has become less risky lately. First, the company has proven that it can execute very well prior to, during, and after the thick of the pandemic. When some tech companies failed to deliver great results without the stay-at-home tailwinds (think Amazon in Q2), Apple has managed to wow investors each quarter.\nCOVID-19 dominated the conversation during most of 2020. Global economies recovering from the pandemic has now become a major concern for investors in 2021. Nearly agnostic to it all is Apple, which helps to justify lower stock price volatility in the recent past.\nThe other plausible justification is a bit less clear, if not more controversial or contrarian. The Apple Maven has argued that treasury yields (i.e. longer-term interest rates) have climbed a bit too much, too fast. As the market ponders whether the risk of hawkish monetary policy may have already been priced into assets, it is possible that Apple stock has benefited through reduced volatility in the past weeks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":59,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853343268"}