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2021-10-21

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Tesla Shares Shrug As Musk-Less Call Offers Dry Details On Expansion, Insurance, Full Self Driving<blockquote>没有马斯克的看涨期权提供了有关扩张、保险、全自动驾驶的枯燥细节，特斯拉股价耸耸肩</blockquote>

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2021-10-21
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853530154,"tweetId":"853530154","gmtCreate":1634823253190,"gmtModify":1634823253853,"author":{"id":3567141277226150,"idStr":"3567141277226150","authorId":3567141277226150,"authorIdStr":"3567141277226150","name":"AppleMango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d3e430c230d4cfd4e97044c56f2b6d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":35,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Pls like comments&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Pls like comments&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Pls like comments","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853530154","repostId":1181541512,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181541512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634821766,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181541512?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 21:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Shares Shrug As Musk-Less Call Offers Dry Details On Expansion, Insurance, Full Self Driving<blockquote>没有马斯克的看涨期权提供了有关扩张、保险、全自动驾驶的枯燥细节，特斯拉股价耸耸肩</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181541512","media":"zerohedge","summary":"If you noticed there was a lack of mumbling, half-sentences and outright bullshiton the Tesla confer","content":"If you noticed there was a lack of mumbling, half-sentences and outright&nbsp;bullshiton the Tesla conference call last night, it may have something to do with the fact that CEO Elon Musk didn't make an appearance on the call. It marks the first time in the company's history that Musk was not on the conference call.<blockquote>如果你注意到没有喃喃自语、半句话和直截了当的话胡说在昨晚的特斯拉电话会议上，可能与CEO Elon Musk没有在看涨期权露面有关。这标志着该公司历史上马斯克首次不在电话会议。</blockquote> Of course, the positive of Musk not being on the call is that whoever is acting as the company's general counsel that week can likely breathe a sign of relief. The negative is that most of the company's cultist supporters, who turn in to hear every last brain fart that Musk is able to conjure up on the fly, may be disappointed.<blockquote>当然，马斯克不在看涨期权的好处是，无论谁在那一周担任公司总法律顾问，都可能松一口气。消极的一面是，该公司的大多数狂热支持者可能会感到失望，他们会收听马斯克能够在飞行中变出的最后一个大脑屁。</blockquote> Or, as&nbsp;Reuters put it, Musk's absence is \"likely to turn Tesla's quarterly calls into more staid reviews of business than unpredictable platforms for the celebrity CEO's latest thoughts.\" Musk follows in the footsteps of executives like Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs, who would also routinely opt-out of their respective companies' conference calls.<blockquote>或者，正如路透社所说，马斯克的缺席“可能会将特斯拉的季度评级变成更稳重的业务回顾，而不是这位名人首席执行官最新想法的不可预测的平台。”马斯克追随杰夫·贝索斯和史蒂夫·乔布斯等高管的脚步，他们也经常选择退出各自公司的评级会议。</blockquote> Musk had warned over the summer that&nbsp;\"unless there's something really important that I need to say,\" he wouldn't be on the calls going forward. Musk has recently been directing a lot of his focus to SpaceX.&nbsp;The call itself touched on a number of topics.<blockquote>马斯克今年夏天曾警告称，“除非我有非常重要的事情需要说”，否则他不会继续留在评级。马斯克最近把很多注意力都放在了SpaceX上。看涨期权本身也触及了很多话题。</blockquote> Speaking about&nbsp;expansion, CFO Zach Kirkhorn said:<blockquote>说到扩大，首席财务官扎克·柯克霍恩表示：</blockquote> Our goal as a Company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so, you can extrapolate that out. There may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the Company. In Fremont, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there. Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we’re targeting to increase that another 50%. ... Austin and Berlin are interesting factories because our first iterations of capacity there are on Model Y. But we've intentionally set these factories and locations in which they have a quite significant amount of land and ability to expand. And so, we'll take Model Y at these factories. We're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can. And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we will add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there. Executives also seemed to take a&nbsp;kinder tone to the NHTSA investigation&nbsp;than CEO Musk may have. Lars Moravy, when asked about the investigation, replied:<blockquote>作为一家公司，我们的目标是以平均每年50%的速度增长。所以，你可以推断出来。可能有一些时期我们远远领先于此。尽管我们尽了最大努力，但在某些时期，我们的价格可能会略低于这个水平。但这仍然是公司的长期目标。在弗里蒙特，我们继续拓展那里的可能性。在过去的12个月里，我们生产了约430,000辆汽车。根据我们对工厂的所有了解，瓶颈在哪里，潜力是什么，我们的目标是再增加50%。...奥斯汀和柏林是有趣的工厂，因为我们在那里的第一次产能迭代是在Model Y上。但我们有意将这些工厂和地点设置在它们拥有大量土地和扩张能力的地方。因此，我们将在这些工厂生产Model Y。我们正在努力尽快达到每周5,000辆汽车的数量。然后我们将继续超越这一目标，甚至有可能在这些工厂每周生产10,000辆汽车。然后我们将在奥斯汀增加Cybertruck，并从那里继续发展。高管们似乎也采取了对国家公路交通安全管理局的调查采取更友善的态度比首席执行官马斯克可能拥有的还要多。当被问及调查情况时，拉尔斯·莫拉维回答道：</blockquote> As we have been for years, we always engage with NHTSA and other worldwide regulatory bodies to share our knowledge and to work with them on our approaches on both active and passive safety.&nbsp;There are ongoing regulatory inquiries taking place all the time, and especially on the subjects. FSD, they're at the cutting edge of technology development. During these investigations, my team, myself, are always cooperative as much as possible. We expect and embrace the scrutiny of these products and know that the truth about their performance and the innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters. In the end then as I've said on previous calls, we take safety as a top priority in all our designs. This is because our primary motivation is from an -- coming from a team of incredible engineers designing software and hardware that saves lives and prevents injuries. And doing so, we'll continue to be transparent to the public on how our technology is both developing from an autopilot safety data, the latest of which we just shared in the shareholder update. And you can also see in review a wide variety of customer post FSD videos on social media. They also addressed&nbsp;longer wait times for service&nbsp;across the country and in Europe. CFO Kirkhorn said:<blockquote>多年来，我们始终与NHTSA和其他全球监管机构合作，分享我们的知识，并与他们合作研究我们在主动和被动安全方面的方法。监管调查一直在进行，尤其是在这些主题上。FSD，他们处于技术开发的前沿。在这些调查过程中，我的团队，我自己，总是尽可能地合作。我们期待并接受对这些产品的审查，并且知道它们的性能和我们产品的创新的真相最终才是最重要的。最后，正如我在之前的评级上所说，我们将安全作为所有设计的重中之重。这是因为我们的主要动机来自一个令人难以置信的工程师团队，他们设计了拯救生命和防止伤害的软件和硬件。通过这样做，我们将继续向公众透明地了解我们的技术是如何根据自动驾驶仪安全数据发展的，我们刚刚在股东更新中分享了最新的数据。您还可以在评论中看到各种客户在社交媒体上发布的FSD视频。他们还谈到服务等待时间更长在全国和欧洲。首席财务官柯克霍恩表示：</blockquote> We have seen an increase in service late times throughout the summer, and there's a couple of things that have contributed to that based upon the information that we had. The first is that I think this is not -- this is not unique to us is that the return to some sense of normalcy in a post-pandemic world has happened I think more quickly than most people expected. And what we're seeing here is that the number of miles that people are driving has increased. There may have been some demand for service during 2020 or in the early parts of 2021 that customers put off. And so, there's a bit of a catch-up that's occurring that has increased demand for service. At the same time, in the macro-environment here, logistics, moving parts, sourcing parts, has become increasingly more difficult, which is a well-known issue in the world right now, as well as challenges in the labor market. And so, there's this simultaneous increase in demand for service, where the ability to supply that service has been impacted for the reasons I mentioned. And so, we saw an uptick primarily in Europe and North America and service wait times over the course of the summer. And we've been working extremely hard since then to address this. Kirkhorn ducked a question about&nbsp;Full Self Driving&nbsp;pricing:<blockquote>我们已经看到整个夏季后期的服务有所增加，根据我们掌握的信息，有几件事促成了这一点。首先，我认为这不是——这不是我们独有的，我认为大流行后世界恢复某种常态的速度比大多数人预期的要快。我们在这里看到的是人们驾驶的里程数增加了。在2020年或2021年初，客户可能会推迟一些服务需求。因此，有一点追赶正在发生，增加了对服务的需求。与此同时，在这里的宏观环境下，物流、移动零件、采购零件变得越来越困难，这是目前世界上众所周知的问题，也是劳动力市场的挑战。因此，对服务的需求同时增加，由于我提到的原因，提供服务的能力受到了影响。因此，我们主要在欧洲和北美看到服务等待时间有所增加。从那时起，我们一直在非常努力地解决这个问题。柯克霍恩回避了一个关于全自动驾驶定价：</blockquote> I'll take the second part of the question first, we won't be providing any forward-looking commentaryon our pricing strategy or what may happen here over the near term. With respect to the first part of the question, it has been an interesting thing for us to impact within the Company. He also talked about the coming&nbsp;Tesla insurance product, which will take Tesla's \"Safety Score\" that it is using to grade FSD beta testers and use it ostensibly to price insurance:<blockquote>我先回答问题的第二部分，我们不会提供任何前瞻性评论关于我们的定价策略或短期内可能发生的事情。关于问题的第一部分，对我们来说，在公司内部产生影响是一件有趣的事情。他还谈到了即将到来的特斯拉保险产品，它将采用特斯拉用于对FSD beta测试人员进行评级的“安全评分”，并表面上用于为保险定价：</blockquote> At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. Because we do get a signal when a car has been in an accident. So, we've been spending our time looking at hundreds of different variables and also looking at billions of miles of driving history. And we've been able to fit a model that is able to predict with decent accuracy the probability of collision over a period of time. And the model is not perfect. The model is a function of the data that we have available. That dataset continues to grow. We continue to experiment with new variables, but we do have a model that works pretty well, so far. And from that model being able to predict frequency of collision, we can then align that against the price curve. And we can have individualized pricing integrated into the car, integrated into the app, integrated into that customer's experience.With the feedback loop back to the customer on how they are driving after every drive, the attributes that they were successful on or unsuccessful on, and the tips of things that they can do to improve their safety. Kirkhorn also addressed potential costs rising as a result of growing raw material pricing:<blockquote>在特斯拉，因为我们的汽车是联网的，因为它们本质上是轮子上的计算机，所以我们可以获得大量数据来评估驾驶汽车的驾驶员的属性，以及这些属性是否与安全相关。因为当汽车发生事故时，我们确实会收到信号。因此，我们一直在花时间研究数百个不同的变量，也研究数十亿英里的驾驶历史。我们已经能够拟合一个模型，能够相当准确地预测一段时间内的碰撞概率。而且模型并不完美。该模型是我们现有数据的函数。该数据集继续增长。我们继续尝试新的变量，但到目前为止，我们确实有一个运行良好的模型。根据能够预测碰撞频率的模型，我们可以将其与价格曲线进行比较。我们可以将个性化定价集成到汽车、应用程序、客户体验中。每次驾驶后都会向客户反馈他们的驾驶情况、他们成功或不成功的属性，以及他们可以采取哪些措施来提高安全性。柯克霍恩还谈到了原材料价格上涨导致的潜在成本上升：</blockquote> Our primary exposure right now is around nickel and aluminum, nickel on the cell, aluminum on non-cell. And we have a mixture of contracts with various suppliers. In some materials, we contract directly and we have full exposure to price fluctuations. We do have a number of long-term commitments and long-term contracts in place. We also have contracts where there's some amount of cost -sharing based upon the movement of indexes. And so, as these have been moving, some of those costs have been flowing through to us. It's unsubstantial amount of cost, but it's not small. As we look towards the next year, I certainly hope it doesn't play out this way, but it's possible that we continue to see more of cost headwind, as a result of these movements. It's difficult to say precisely, but the volatility in the increases are just substantial. So substantial. And there are certain suppliers that maybe up to a certain point have been absorbing some of the increase. And finally he praised the company's supply chain team for&nbsp;navigating the chip crisis:<blockquote>我们目前主要接触的是镍和铝，电池上的镍，非电池上的铝。我们与各种供应商签订了混合合同。在某些材料中，我们直接签订合同，我们完全面临价格波动的风险。我们确实有许多长期承诺和长期合同。我们还签订了根据指数变动进行一定程度成本分摊的合同。因此，随着这些成本的转移，其中一些成本已经流向了我们。这是一笔微不足道的费用，但也不小。展望下一年，我当然希望事情不会以这种方式发展，但我们可能会继续看到更多的成本阻力，作为这些运动的结果。很难说清楚，但增长的波动性是巨大的。如此充实。某些供应商可能在某种程度上已经吸收了部分增长。最后他赞扬了公司的供应链团队应对芯片危机：</blockquote> I want to thank our supply chain team for their incredible work and our production teams for showing impressive flexibility as we make adjustments real-time. These teams' expertise in the chip industry across all tiers has made a huge differencein managing through these challenges. Additionally, we never reduced our production forecast with our suppliers as we're adding capacity as quickly as possible. Analysts also weighed in on Thursday morning with their take on both the report, and the call. Courtesy of&nbsp;Bloomberg, here are their takes:<blockquote>我要感谢我们的供应链团队所做的令人难以置信的工作，以及我们的生产团队在我们实时进行调整时表现出的令人印象深刻的灵活性。这些团队在芯片行业各个层面的专业知识产生了巨大的影响应对这些挑战。此外，我们从未降低对供应商的产量预测，因为我们正在尽快增加产能。周四上午，分析师也发表了对该报告和《看涨期权》的看法。由彭博社，以下是他们的镜头：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Cowen (Marketperform, PT to $625 from $580)<blockquote><ul><li>Cowen（Marketperform，PT从580美元涨至625美元）</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Says guidance continues to be “vague,” highlights wide gap between Tesla’s “over 50% delivery growth in ‘22” target and consensus for more than 70% growth<blockquote><ul><li>表示指导仍然“模糊”，强调特斯拉“22年交付增长超过50%”的目标与增长超过70%的共识之间存在巨大差距</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT $900)<blockquote><li>摩根士丹利（跑赢大盘，PT$900）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>Says annualized Ebitda approaching $13b, closing in on levels of GM and Ford, but notes revenue being just a fraction of those traditional automakers<blockquote><ul><li>表示年化Ebitda接近13b美元，接近通用汽车和福特的水平，但指出收入只是这些传统汽车制造商的一小部分</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Says lowering dependency on Fremont plan is a further plus for margins<blockquote><li>表示降低对弗里蒙特计划的依赖将进一步提高利润率</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>Wedbush (Outperform, PT to $1,100 from $1,000)<blockquote><li>Wedbush（跑赢大盘，PT从1,000美元升至1,100美元）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>“We also believe the scale and scope of Giga Austin will enable Tesla to further expand margins markedly over time and will alleviate the supply bottleneck”<blockquote><ul><li>“我们还相信，Giga Austin的规模和范围将使特斯拉能够随着时间的推移进一步显着扩大利润率，并将缓解供应瓶颈”</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Sees China representing 40%+ of global deliveries for Tesla in 2022<blockquote><li>预计2022年中国将占特斯拉全球交付量的40%以上</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>Piper Sandler (Overweight, Street high PT $1,200)<blockquote><li>Piper Sandler（跑赢大盘，Street high PT$1,200）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>On margins, says 3Q will probably represent “the high-water mark,” at least for the next few quarters<blockquote><ul><li>他表示，就利润率而言，第三季度可能代表“高水位”，至少在未来几个季度是如此</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Cites stock underperformance to rally in run up to the results<blockquote><li>因股票表现不佳而在业绩公布前上涨</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>JPMorgan (Underweight, PT to $250 from $210)<blockquote><li>摩根大通（PT跑输大盘，从210美元涨至250美元）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>Says investors it chatted with were looking for an update on the ramp of production in Austin and Berlin<blockquote><ul><li>表示与之交谈的投资者正在寻找奥斯汀和柏林产量增长的最新情况</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Still believes current valuation of over $800b “challenging”<blockquote><li>仍然认为目前超过800b美元的估值“具有挑战性”</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> </ul> Recall, we published a&nbsp;full report on Tesla's Q3 earnings here.<blockquote>回想一下，我们在这里发布了特斯拉第三季度收益的完整报告。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1dc6ea27302a920d2cc27075e2954a\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> For the third quarter, Tesla posted:<blockquote>对于第三季度，特斯拉发布：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Revenue $13.76BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the est $13.91B<blockquote><ul><li>收入137.6亿美元，失踪的预计$13.91 B</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Adjusted EPS $1.86,&nbsp;beating&nbsp;the est 1.67c<blockquote><li>调整后每股收益1.86美元，殴打预计1.67摄氏度</li></blockquote></li> <li>Free Cash Flow $1.328BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the estimate of $1.38BN<blockquote><li>自由现金流13.28亿美元，失踪的估计为13.8亿美元</li></blockquote></li> <li>Automotive gross margin 30.5%,&nbsp;beating&nbsp;the estimate of 28.4% and up Y/Y from 27.7%<blockquote><li>汽车毛利率30.5%，殴打预期为28.4%，同比高于27.7%</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>GAAP automotive gross margin 28.8%,&nbsp;beatingthe estimate of Exp. 26.4%<blockquote><ul><li>GAAP汽车毛利率28.8%，殴打Exp的估计。26.4%</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>CapEx $1.828BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the estimate of $1.37BN<blockquote><li>资本支出18.28亿美元，失踪的估计为13.7亿美元</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash and cash equivalents of $16.065BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the estimate $16.88 billion<blockquote><li>现金及现金等价物为160.65亿美元，失踪的估计为168.8亿美元</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Tesla said it had its “best-ever” net income, while it actually lowered prices in the third quarter.&nbsp;“Our operating margin reached an all-time high as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP,” the company said.<blockquote>特斯拉表示，它的净利润是“有史以来最好的”，而实际上它在第三季度降低了价格。该公司表示：“随着我们继续以高于平均售价下降的速度降低成本，我们的营业利润率达到了历史最高水平。”</blockquote> Of note, unlike previous quarter when virtually all the profit came from the sale of regulatory credits, in Q3 the situation normalized somewhat with just $279MM from regulatory credits, a 30% drop Y/Y and a fraction of the GAAP Net Income of $1.618BN.<blockquote>值得注意的是，与上一季度几乎所有利润都来自出售监管信贷不同，第三季度的情况有所正常化，监管信贷仅为2.79亿美元，同比下降30%，仅占GAAP净利润16.18亿美元的一小部分。</blockquote> Amusingly, Tesla announced that in Q3 it suffered a Bitcoin-related impairment of $51M, which however we are confident has been fully reversed by now. Tesla's holdings of “digital assets” totaled $1.26 billion at the end of the quarter. That is down from $1.311 billion in the previous quarter, or $51 million, the amount it reported as a “Bitcoin-related impairment” and which will no appear as a benefit thanks to the surge in the price of bitcoin.<blockquote>有趣的是，特斯拉宣布第三季度与比特币相关的减值为5100万美元，但我们相信这一减值现已完全扭转。截至本季度末，特斯拉持有的“数字资产”总额为12.6亿美元。这低于上一季度的13.11亿美元，即5100万美元，该公司报告的“比特币相关减值”金额，并且由于比特币价格飙升，该金额不会表现为收益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a251c7dc295e75612621313a58b673\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company also reported what we already knew - that it produced and delivered some 240,000 vehicles, while \"reaching an operating margin of 14.6%, exceeding our medium-term guidance of “operating margin in low-teens.” The company proudly noted that \"this level of profitability was achieved while ASP decreased by 6% YoY in Q3 due to continued mix shift towards lower-priced vehicles.\" In Q3, Tesla's operating margin reached an all-time high \"as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP. \"<blockquote>该公司还报告了我们已经知道的情况——它生产和交付了约240,000辆汽车，同时“营业利润率达到14.6%，超过了我们的中期指导”营业利润率在十几岁左右。该公司自豪地指出，“由于产品组合持续转向低价汽车，第三季度平均售价同比下降6%，实现了这一盈利水平。”第三季度，特斯拉的营业利润率达到了历史最高水平，“因为我们继续以高于平均售价下降的速度降低成本”。</blockquote> Looking ahead, Tesla said that it plans to grow its manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible but the growth will be determined by supply chain shortages: \"Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.&nbsp;The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.\"<blockquote>展望未来，特斯拉表示，计划尽快提高制造能力，但增长将取决于供应链短缺：“在多年的时间里，我们预计汽车交付量将实现50%的年均增长。增长率将取决于我们的设备产能、运营效率以及供应链的产能和稳定性。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Shares Shrug As Musk-Less Call Offers Dry Details On Expansion, Insurance, Full Self Driving<blockquote>没有马斯克的看涨期权提供了有关扩张、保险、全自动驾驶的枯燥细节，特斯拉股价耸耸肩</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-10-21 21:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIf you noticed there was a lack of mumbling, half-sentences and outright&nbsp;bullshiton the Tesla conference call last night, it may have something to do with the fact that CEO Elon Musk didn't make an appearance on the call. It marks the first time in the company's history that Musk was not on the conference call.<blockquote>如果你注意到没有喃喃自语、半句话和直截了当的话胡说在昨晚的特斯拉电话会议上，可能与CEO Elon Musk没有在看涨期权露面有关。这标志着该公司历史上马斯克首次不在电话会议。</blockquote> Of course, the positive of Musk not being on the call is that whoever is acting as the company's general counsel that week can likely breathe a sign of relief. The negative is that most of the company's cultist supporters, who turn in to hear every last brain fart that Musk is able to conjure up on the fly, may be disappointed.<blockquote>当然，马斯克不在看涨期权的好处是，无论谁在那一周担任公司总法律顾问，都可能松一口气。消极的一面是，该公司的大多数狂热支持者可能会感到失望，他们会收听马斯克能够在飞行中变出的最后一个大脑屁。</blockquote> Or, as&nbsp;Reuters put it, Musk's absence is \"likely to turn Tesla's quarterly calls into more staid reviews of business than unpredictable platforms for the celebrity CEO's latest thoughts.\" Musk follows in the footsteps of executives like Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs, who would also routinely opt-out of their respective companies' conference calls.<blockquote>或者，正如路透社所说，马斯克的缺席“可能会将特斯拉的季度评级变成更稳重的业务回顾，而不是这位名人首席执行官最新想法的不可预测的平台。”马斯克追随杰夫·贝索斯和史蒂夫·乔布斯等高管的脚步，他们也经常选择退出各自公司的评级会议。</blockquote> Musk had warned over the summer that&nbsp;\"unless there's something really important that I need to say,\" he wouldn't be on the calls going forward. Musk has recently been directing a lot of his focus to SpaceX.&nbsp;The call itself touched on a number of topics.<blockquote>马斯克今年夏天曾警告称，“除非我有非常重要的事情需要说”，否则他不会继续留在评级。马斯克最近把很多注意力都放在了SpaceX上。看涨期权本身也触及了很多话题。</blockquote> Speaking about&nbsp;expansion, CFO Zach Kirkhorn said:<blockquote>说到扩大，首席财务官扎克·柯克霍恩表示：</blockquote> Our goal as a Company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so, you can extrapolate that out. There may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the Company. In Fremont, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there. Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we’re targeting to increase that another 50%. ... Austin and Berlin are interesting factories because our first iterations of capacity there are on Model Y. But we've intentionally set these factories and locations in which they have a quite significant amount of land and ability to expand. And so, we'll take Model Y at these factories. We're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can. And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we will add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there. Executives also seemed to take a&nbsp;kinder tone to the NHTSA investigation&nbsp;than CEO Musk may have. Lars Moravy, when asked about the investigation, replied:<blockquote>作为一家公司，我们的目标是以平均每年50%的速度增长。所以，你可以推断出来。可能有一些时期我们远远领先于此。尽管我们尽了最大努力，但在某些时期，我们的价格可能会略低于这个水平。但这仍然是公司的长期目标。在弗里蒙特，我们继续拓展那里的可能性。在过去的12个月里，我们生产了约430,000辆汽车。根据我们对工厂的所有了解，瓶颈在哪里，潜力是什么，我们的目标是再增加50%。...奥斯汀和柏林是有趣的工厂，因为我们在那里的第一次产能迭代是在Model Y上。但我们有意将这些工厂和地点设置在它们拥有大量土地和扩张能力的地方。因此，我们将在这些工厂生产Model Y。我们正在努力尽快达到每周5,000辆汽车的数量。然后我们将继续超越这一目标，甚至有可能在这些工厂每周生产10,000辆汽车。然后我们将在奥斯汀增加Cybertruck，并从那里继续发展。高管们似乎也采取了对国家公路交通安全管理局的调查采取更友善的态度比首席执行官马斯克可能拥有的还要多。当被问及调查情况时，拉尔斯·莫拉维回答道：</blockquote> As we have been for years, we always engage with NHTSA and other worldwide regulatory bodies to share our knowledge and to work with them on our approaches on both active and passive safety.&nbsp;There are ongoing regulatory inquiries taking place all the time, and especially on the subjects. FSD, they're at the cutting edge of technology development. During these investigations, my team, myself, are always cooperative as much as possible. We expect and embrace the scrutiny of these products and know that the truth about their performance and the innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters. In the end then as I've said on previous calls, we take safety as a top priority in all our designs. This is because our primary motivation is from an -- coming from a team of incredible engineers designing software and hardware that saves lives and prevents injuries. And doing so, we'll continue to be transparent to the public on how our technology is both developing from an autopilot safety data, the latest of which we just shared in the shareholder update. And you can also see in review a wide variety of customer post FSD videos on social media. They also addressed&nbsp;longer wait times for service&nbsp;across the country and in Europe. CFO Kirkhorn said:<blockquote>多年来，我们始终与NHTSA和其他全球监管机构合作，分享我们的知识，并与他们合作研究我们在主动和被动安全方面的方法。监管调查一直在进行，尤其是在这些主题上。FSD，他们处于技术开发的前沿。在这些调查过程中，我的团队，我自己，总是尽可能地合作。我们期待并接受对这些产品的审查，并且知道它们的性能和我们产品的创新的真相最终才是最重要的。最后，正如我在之前的评级上所说，我们将安全作为所有设计的重中之重。这是因为我们的主要动机来自一个令人难以置信的工程师团队，他们设计了拯救生命和防止伤害的软件和硬件。通过这样做，我们将继续向公众透明地了解我们的技术是如何根据自动驾驶仪安全数据发展的，我们刚刚在股东更新中分享了最新的数据。您还可以在评论中看到各种客户在社交媒体上发布的FSD视频。他们还谈到服务等待时间更长在全国和欧洲。首席财务官柯克霍恩表示：</blockquote> We have seen an increase in service late times throughout the summer, and there's a couple of things that have contributed to that based upon the information that we had. The first is that I think this is not -- this is not unique to us is that the return to some sense of normalcy in a post-pandemic world has happened I think more quickly than most people expected. And what we're seeing here is that the number of miles that people are driving has increased. There may have been some demand for service during 2020 or in the early parts of 2021 that customers put off. And so, there's a bit of a catch-up that's occurring that has increased demand for service. At the same time, in the macro-environment here, logistics, moving parts, sourcing parts, has become increasingly more difficult, which is a well-known issue in the world right now, as well as challenges in the labor market. And so, there's this simultaneous increase in demand for service, where the ability to supply that service has been impacted for the reasons I mentioned. And so, we saw an uptick primarily in Europe and North America and service wait times over the course of the summer. And we've been working extremely hard since then to address this. Kirkhorn ducked a question about&nbsp;Full Self Driving&nbsp;pricing:<blockquote>我们已经看到整个夏季后期的服务有所增加，根据我们掌握的信息，有几件事促成了这一点。首先，我认为这不是——这不是我们独有的，我认为大流行后世界恢复某种常态的速度比大多数人预期的要快。我们在这里看到的是人们驾驶的里程数增加了。在2020年或2021年初，客户可能会推迟一些服务需求。因此，有一点追赶正在发生，增加了对服务的需求。与此同时，在这里的宏观环境下，物流、移动零件、采购零件变得越来越困难，这是目前世界上众所周知的问题，也是劳动力市场的挑战。因此，对服务的需求同时增加，由于我提到的原因，提供服务的能力受到了影响。因此，我们主要在欧洲和北美看到服务等待时间有所增加。从那时起，我们一直在非常努力地解决这个问题。柯克霍恩回避了一个关于全自动驾驶定价：</blockquote> I'll take the second part of the question first, we won't be providing any forward-looking commentaryon our pricing strategy or what may happen here over the near term. With respect to the first part of the question, it has been an interesting thing for us to impact within the Company. He also talked about the coming&nbsp;Tesla insurance product, which will take Tesla's \"Safety Score\" that it is using to grade FSD beta testers and use it ostensibly to price insurance:<blockquote>我先回答问题的第二部分，我们不会提供任何前瞻性评论关于我们的定价策略或短期内可能发生的事情。关于问题的第一部分，对我们来说，在公司内部产生影响是一件有趣的事情。他还谈到了即将到来的特斯拉保险产品，它将采用特斯拉用于对FSD beta测试人员进行评级的“安全评分”，并表面上用于为保险定价：</blockquote> At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. Because we do get a signal when a car has been in an accident. So, we've been spending our time looking at hundreds of different variables and also looking at billions of miles of driving history. And we've been able to fit a model that is able to predict with decent accuracy the probability of collision over a period of time. And the model is not perfect. The model is a function of the data that we have available. That dataset continues to grow. We continue to experiment with new variables, but we do have a model that works pretty well, so far. And from that model being able to predict frequency of collision, we can then align that against the price curve. And we can have individualized pricing integrated into the car, integrated into the app, integrated into that customer's experience.With the feedback loop back to the customer on how they are driving after every drive, the attributes that they were successful on or unsuccessful on, and the tips of things that they can do to improve their safety. Kirkhorn also addressed potential costs rising as a result of growing raw material pricing:<blockquote>在特斯拉，因为我们的汽车是联网的，因为它们本质上是轮子上的计算机，所以我们可以获得大量数据来评估驾驶汽车的驾驶员的属性，以及这些属性是否与安全相关。因为当汽车发生事故时，我们确实会收到信号。因此，我们一直在花时间研究数百个不同的变量，也研究数十亿英里的驾驶历史。我们已经能够拟合一个模型，能够相当准确地预测一段时间内的碰撞概率。而且模型并不完美。该模型是我们现有数据的函数。该数据集继续增长。我们继续尝试新的变量，但到目前为止，我们确实有一个运行良好的模型。根据能够预测碰撞频率的模型，我们可以将其与价格曲线进行比较。我们可以将个性化定价集成到汽车、应用程序、客户体验中。每次驾驶后都会向客户反馈他们的驾驶情况、他们成功或不成功的属性，以及他们可以采取哪些措施来提高安全性。柯克霍恩还谈到了原材料价格上涨导致的潜在成本上升：</blockquote> Our primary exposure right now is around nickel and aluminum, nickel on the cell, aluminum on non-cell. And we have a mixture of contracts with various suppliers. In some materials, we contract directly and we have full exposure to price fluctuations. We do have a number of long-term commitments and long-term contracts in place. We also have contracts where there's some amount of cost -sharing based upon the movement of indexes. And so, as these have been moving, some of those costs have been flowing through to us. It's unsubstantial amount of cost, but it's not small. As we look towards the next year, I certainly hope it doesn't play out this way, but it's possible that we continue to see more of cost headwind, as a result of these movements. It's difficult to say precisely, but the volatility in the increases are just substantial. So substantial. And there are certain suppliers that maybe up to a certain point have been absorbing some of the increase. And finally he praised the company's supply chain team for&nbsp;navigating the chip crisis:<blockquote>我们目前主要接触的是镍和铝，电池上的镍，非电池上的铝。我们与各种供应商签订了混合合同。在某些材料中，我们直接签订合同，我们完全面临价格波动的风险。我们确实有许多长期承诺和长期合同。我们还签订了根据指数变动进行一定程度成本分摊的合同。因此，随着这些成本的转移，其中一些成本已经流向了我们。这是一笔微不足道的费用，但也不小。展望下一年，我当然希望事情不会以这种方式发展，但我们可能会继续看到更多的成本阻力，作为这些运动的结果。很难说清楚，但增长的波动性是巨大的。如此充实。某些供应商可能在某种程度上已经吸收了部分增长。最后他赞扬了公司的供应链团队应对芯片危机：</blockquote> I want to thank our supply chain team for their incredible work and our production teams for showing impressive flexibility as we make adjustments real-time. These teams' expertise in the chip industry across all tiers has made a huge differencein managing through these challenges. Additionally, we never reduced our production forecast with our suppliers as we're adding capacity as quickly as possible. Analysts also weighed in on Thursday morning with their take on both the report, and the call. Courtesy of&nbsp;Bloomberg, here are their takes:<blockquote>我要感谢我们的供应链团队所做的令人难以置信的工作，以及我们的生产团队在我们实时进行调整时表现出的令人印象深刻的灵活性。这些团队在芯片行业各个层面的专业知识产生了巨大的影响应对这些挑战。此外，我们从未降低对供应商的产量预测，因为我们正在尽快增加产能。周四上午，分析师也发表了对该报告和《看涨期权》的看法。由彭博社，以下是他们的镜头：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Cowen (Marketperform, PT to $625 from $580)<blockquote><ul><li>Cowen（Marketperform，PT从580美元涨至625美元）</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Says guidance continues to be “vague,” highlights wide gap between Tesla’s “over 50% delivery growth in ‘22” target and consensus for more than 70% growth<blockquote><ul><li>表示指导仍然“模糊”，强调特斯拉“22年交付增长超过50%”的目标与增长超过70%的共识之间存在巨大差距</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT $900)<blockquote><li>摩根士丹利（跑赢大盘，PT$900）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>Says annualized Ebitda approaching $13b, closing in on levels of GM and Ford, but notes revenue being just a fraction of those traditional automakers<blockquote><ul><li>表示年化Ebitda接近13b美元，接近通用汽车和福特的水平，但指出收入只是这些传统汽车制造商的一小部分</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Says lowering dependency on Fremont plan is a further plus for margins<blockquote><li>表示降低对弗里蒙特计划的依赖将进一步提高利润率</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>Wedbush (Outperform, PT to $1,100 from $1,000)<blockquote><li>Wedbush（跑赢大盘，PT从1,000美元升至1,100美元）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>“We also believe the scale and scope of Giga Austin will enable Tesla to further expand margins markedly over time and will alleviate the supply bottleneck”<blockquote><ul><li>“我们还相信，Giga Austin的规模和范围将使特斯拉能够随着时间的推移进一步显着扩大利润率，并将缓解供应瓶颈”</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Sees China representing 40%+ of global deliveries for Tesla in 2022<blockquote><li>预计2022年中国将占特斯拉全球交付量的40%以上</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>Piper Sandler (Overweight, Street high PT $1,200)<blockquote><li>Piper Sandler（跑赢大盘，Street high PT$1,200）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>On margins, says 3Q will probably represent “the high-water mark,” at least for the next few quarters<blockquote><ul><li>他表示，就利润率而言，第三季度可能代表“高水位”，至少在未来几个季度是如此</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Cites stock underperformance to rally in run up to the results<blockquote><li>因股票表现不佳而在业绩公布前上涨</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>JPMorgan (Underweight, PT to $250 from $210)<blockquote><li>摩根大通（PT跑输大盘，从210美元涨至250美元）</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>Says investors it chatted with were looking for an update on the ramp of production in Austin and Berlin<blockquote><ul><li>表示与之交谈的投资者正在寻找奥斯汀和柏林产量增长的最新情况</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Still believes current valuation of over $800b “challenging”<blockquote><li>仍然认为目前超过800b美元的估值“具有挑战性”</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> </ul> Recall, we published a&nbsp;full report on Tesla's Q3 earnings here.<blockquote>回想一下，我们在这里发布了特斯拉第三季度收益的完整报告。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1dc6ea27302a920d2cc27075e2954a\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> For the third quarter, Tesla posted:<blockquote>对于第三季度，特斯拉发布：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Revenue $13.76BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the est $13.91B<blockquote><ul><li>收入137.6亿美元，失踪的预计$13.91 B</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Adjusted EPS $1.86,&nbsp;beating&nbsp;the est 1.67c<blockquote><li>调整后每股收益1.86美元，殴打预计1.67摄氏度</li></blockquote></li> <li>Free Cash Flow $1.328BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the estimate of $1.38BN<blockquote><li>自由现金流13.28亿美元，失踪的估计为13.8亿美元</li></blockquote></li> <li>Automotive gross margin 30.5%,&nbsp;beating&nbsp;the estimate of 28.4% and up Y/Y from 27.7%<blockquote><li>汽车毛利率30.5%，殴打预期为28.4%，同比高于27.7%</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>GAAP automotive gross margin 28.8%,&nbsp;beatingthe estimate of Exp. 26.4%<blockquote><ul><li>GAAP汽车毛利率28.8%，殴打Exp的估计。26.4%</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul></li> <li>CapEx $1.828BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the estimate of $1.37BN<blockquote><li>资本支出18.28亿美元，失踪的估计为13.7亿美元</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash and cash equivalents of $16.065BN,&nbsp;missing&nbsp;the estimate $16.88 billion<blockquote><li>现金及现金等价物为160.65亿美元，失踪的估计为168.8亿美元</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Tesla said it had its “best-ever” net income, while it actually lowered prices in the third quarter.&nbsp;“Our operating margin reached an all-time high as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP,” the company said.<blockquote>特斯拉表示，它的净利润是“有史以来最好的”，而实际上它在第三季度降低了价格。该公司表示：“随着我们继续以高于平均售价下降的速度降低成本，我们的营业利润率达到了历史最高水平。”</blockquote> Of note, unlike previous quarter when virtually all the profit came from the sale of regulatory credits, in Q3 the situation normalized somewhat with just $279MM from regulatory credits, a 30% drop Y/Y and a fraction of the GAAP Net Income of $1.618BN.<blockquote>值得注意的是，与上一季度几乎所有利润都来自出售监管信贷不同，第三季度的情况有所正常化，监管信贷仅为2.79亿美元，同比下降30%，仅占GAAP净利润16.18亿美元的一小部分。</blockquote> Amusingly, Tesla announced that in Q3 it suffered a Bitcoin-related impairment of $51M, which however we are confident has been fully reversed by now. Tesla's holdings of “digital assets” totaled $1.26 billion at the end of the quarter. That is down from $1.311 billion in the previous quarter, or $51 million, the amount it reported as a “Bitcoin-related impairment” and which will no appear as a benefit thanks to the surge in the price of bitcoin.<blockquote>有趣的是，特斯拉宣布第三季度与比特币相关的减值为5100万美元，但我们相信这一减值现已完全扭转。截至本季度末，特斯拉持有的“数字资产”总额为12.6亿美元。这低于上一季度的13.11亿美元，即5100万美元，该公司报告的“比特币相关减值”金额，并且由于比特币价格飙升，该金额不会表现为收益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a251c7dc295e75612621313a58b673\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company also reported what we already knew - that it produced and delivered some 240,000 vehicles, while \"reaching an operating margin of 14.6%, exceeding our medium-term guidance of “operating margin in low-teens.” The company proudly noted that \"this level of profitability was achieved while ASP decreased by 6% YoY in Q3 due to continued mix shift towards lower-priced vehicles.\" In Q3, Tesla's operating margin reached an all-time high \"as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP. \"<blockquote>该公司还报告了我们已经知道的情况——它生产和交付了约240,000辆汽车，同时“营业利润率达到14.6%，超过了我们的中期指导”营业利润率在十几岁左右。该公司自豪地指出，“由于产品组合持续转向低价汽车，第三季度平均售价同比下降6%，实现了这一盈利水平。”第三季度，特斯拉的营业利润率达到了历史最高水平，“因为我们继续以高于平均售价下降的速度降低成本”。</blockquote> Looking ahead, Tesla said that it plans to grow its manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible but the growth will be determined by supply chain shortages: \"Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.&nbsp;The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.\"<blockquote>展望未来，特斯拉表示，计划尽快提高制造能力，但增长将取决于供应链短缺：“在多年的时间里，我们预计汽车交付量将实现50%的年均增长。增长率将取决于我们的设备产能、运营效率以及供应链的产能和稳定性。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/musk-less-tesla-conference-call-offers-details-expansion-insurance-full-self-driving\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/musk-less-tesla-conference-call-offers-details-expansion-insurance-full-self-driving","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181541512","content_text":"If you noticed there was a lack of mumbling, half-sentences and outright bullshiton the Tesla conference call last night, it may have something to do with the fact that CEO Elon Musk didn't make an appearance on the call. It marks the first time in the company's history that Musk was not on the conference call.\nOf course, the positive of Musk not being on the call is that whoever is acting as the company's general counsel that week can likely breathe a sign of relief. The negative is that most of the company's cultist supporters, who turn in to hear every last brain fart that Musk is able to conjure up on the fly, may be disappointed.\nOr, as Reuters put it, Musk's absence is \"likely to turn Tesla's quarterly calls into more staid reviews of business than unpredictable platforms for the celebrity CEO's latest thoughts.\" Musk follows in the footsteps of executives like Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs, who would also routinely opt-out of their respective companies' conference calls.\nMusk had warned over the summer that \"unless there's something really important that I need to say,\" he wouldn't be on the calls going forward. Musk has recently been directing a lot of his focus to SpaceX. The call itself touched on a number of topics.\nSpeaking about expansion, CFO Zach Kirkhorn said:\n\n Our goal as a Company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so, you can extrapolate that out. There may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the Company. In Fremont, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there. Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we’re targeting to increase that another 50%.\n\n\n ...\n\n\n Austin and Berlin are interesting factories because our first iterations of capacity there are on Model Y. But we've intentionally set these factories and locations in which they have a quite significant amount of land and ability to expand. And so, we'll take Model Y at these factories. We're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can. And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we will add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there.\n\nExecutives also seemed to take a kinder tone to the NHTSA investigation than CEO Musk may have. Lars Moravy, when asked about the investigation, replied:\n\n As we have been for years, we always engage with NHTSA and other worldwide regulatory bodies to share our knowledge and to work with them on our approaches on both active and passive safety. There are ongoing regulatory inquiries taking place all the time, and especially on the subjects. FSD, they're at the cutting edge of technology development. During these investigations, my team, myself, are always cooperative as much as possible.\n\n\n We expect and embrace the scrutiny of these products and know that the truth about their performance and the innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters. In the end then as I've said on previous calls, we take safety as a top priority in all our designs. This is because our primary motivation is from an -- coming from a team of incredible engineers designing software and hardware that saves lives and prevents injuries.\n\n\n And doing so, we'll continue to be transparent to the public on how our technology is both developing from an autopilot safety data, the latest of which we just shared in the shareholder update. And you can also see in review a wide variety of customer post FSD videos on social media.\n\nThey also addressed longer wait times for service across the country and in Europe. CFO Kirkhorn said:\n\n We have seen an increase in service late times throughout the summer, and there's a couple of things that have contributed to that based upon the information that we had. The first is that I think this is not -- this is not unique to us is that the return to some sense of normalcy in a post-pandemic world has happened I think more quickly than most people expected.\n\n\n And what we're seeing here is that the number of miles that people are driving has increased. There may have been some demand for service during 2020 or in the early parts of 2021 that customers put off. And so, there's a bit of a catch-up that's occurring that has increased demand for service.\n\n\n At the same time, in the macro-environment here, logistics, moving parts, sourcing parts, has become increasingly more difficult, which is a well-known issue in the world right now, as well as challenges in the labor market. And so, there's this simultaneous increase in demand for service, where the ability to supply that service has been impacted for the reasons I mentioned.\n\n\n And so, we saw an uptick primarily in Europe and North America and service wait times over the course of the summer. And we've been working extremely hard since then to address this.\n\nKirkhorn ducked a question about Full Self Driving pricing:\n\n I'll take the second part of the question first, \n we won't be providing any forward-looking commentaryon our pricing strategy or what may happen here over the near term. With respect to the first part of the question, it has been an interesting thing for us to impact within the Company.\n\nHe also talked about the coming Tesla insurance product, which will take Tesla's \"Safety Score\" that it is using to grade FSD beta testers and use it ostensibly to price insurance:\n\n At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. Because we do get a signal when a car has been in an accident. So, we've been spending our time looking at hundreds of different variables and also looking at billions of miles of driving history. And we've been able to fit a model that is able to predict with decent accuracy the probability of collision over a period of time. And the model is not perfect.\n\n\n The model is a function of the data that we have available. That dataset continues to grow. We continue to experiment with new variables, but we do have a model that works pretty well, so far. And from that model being able to predict frequency of collision, we can then align that against the price curve. \n And we can have individualized pricing integrated into the car, integrated into the app, integrated into that customer's experience.With the feedback loop back to the customer on how they are driving after every drive, the attributes that they were successful on or unsuccessful on, and the tips of things that they can do to improve their safety.\n\nKirkhorn also addressed potential costs rising as a result of growing raw material pricing:\n\n Our primary exposure right now is around nickel and aluminum, nickel on the cell, aluminum on non-cell. And we have a mixture of contracts with various suppliers. In some materials, we contract directly and we have full exposure to price fluctuations. We do have a number of long-term commitments and long-term contracts in place. We also have contracts where there's some amount of cost -sharing based upon the movement of indexes. And so, as these have been moving, some of those costs have been flowing through to us. It's unsubstantial amount of cost, but it's not small.\n\n\n As we look towards the next year, \n I certainly hope it doesn't play out this way, but it's possible that we continue to see more of cost headwind, as a result of these movements. It's difficult to say precisely, but the volatility in the increases are just substantial. So substantial. And there are certain suppliers that maybe up to a certain point have been absorbing some of the increase.\n\nAnd finally he praised the company's supply chain team for navigating the chip crisis:\n\n I want to thank our supply chain team for their incredible work and our production teams for showing impressive flexibility as we make adjustments real-time. \n These teams' expertise in the chip industry across all tiers has made a huge differencein managing through these challenges. Additionally, we never reduced our production forecast with our suppliers as we're adding capacity as quickly as possible.\n\nAnalysts also weighed in on Thursday morning with their take on both the report, and the call. Courtesy of Bloomberg, here are their takes:\n\n\nCowen (Marketperform, PT to $625 from $580)\n\nSays guidance continues to be “vague,” highlights wide gap between Tesla’s “over 50% delivery growth in ‘22” target and consensus for more than 70% growth\n\nMorgan Stanley (Overweight, PT $900)\n\nSays annualized Ebitda approaching $13b, closing in on levels of GM and Ford, but notes revenue being just a fraction of those traditional automakers\nSays lowering dependency on Fremont plan is a further plus for margins\n\nWedbush (Outperform, PT to $1,100 from $1,000)\n\n“We also believe the scale and scope of Giga Austin will enable Tesla to further expand margins markedly over time and will alleviate the supply bottleneck”\nSees China representing 40%+ of global deliveries for Tesla in 2022\n\nPiper Sandler (Overweight, Street high PT $1,200)\n\nOn margins, says 3Q will probably represent “the high-water mark,” at least for the next few quarters\nCites stock underperformance to rally in run up to the results\n\nJPMorgan (Underweight, PT to $250 from $210)\n\nSays investors it chatted with were looking for an update on the ramp of production in Austin and Berlin\nStill believes current valuation of over $800b “challenging”\n\n\n\nRecall, we published a full report on Tesla's Q3 earnings here.\n\nFor the third quarter, Tesla posted:\n\nRevenue $13.76BN, missing the est $13.91B\nAdjusted EPS $1.86, beating the est 1.67c\nFree Cash Flow $1.328BN, missing the estimate of $1.38BN\nAutomotive gross margin 30.5%, beating the estimate of 28.4% and up Y/Y from 27.7%\n\nGAAP automotive gross margin 28.8%, beatingthe estimate of Exp. 26.4%\n\nCapEx $1.828BN, missing the estimate of $1.37BN\nCash and cash equivalents of $16.065BN, missing the estimate $16.88 billion\n\nTesla said it had its “best-ever” net income, while it actually lowered prices in the third quarter. “Our operating margin reached an all-time high as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP,” the company said.\nOf note, unlike previous quarter when virtually all the profit came from the sale of regulatory credits, in Q3 the situation normalized somewhat with just $279MM from regulatory credits, a 30% drop Y/Y and a fraction of the GAAP Net Income of $1.618BN.\nAmusingly, Tesla announced that in Q3 it suffered a Bitcoin-related impairment of $51M, which however we are confident has been fully reversed by now. Tesla's holdings of “digital assets” totaled $1.26 billion at the end of the quarter. That is down from $1.311 billion in the previous quarter, or $51 million, the amount it reported as a “Bitcoin-related impairment” and which will no appear as a benefit thanks to the surge in the price of bitcoin.\nThe company also reported what we already knew - that it produced and delivered some 240,000 vehicles, while \"reaching an operating margin of 14.6%, exceeding our medium-term guidance of “operating margin in low-teens.” The company proudly noted that \"this level of profitability was achieved while ASP decreased by 6% YoY in Q3 due to continued mix shift towards lower-priced vehicles.\" In Q3, Tesla's operating margin reached an all-time high \"as we continue to reduce cost at a higher rate than declines in ASP. \"\nLooking ahead, Tesla said that it plans to grow its manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible but the growth will be determined by supply chain shortages: \"Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3343,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":6277582,"commentId":"6277582","gmtCreate":1634823660909,"gmtModify":1634824851173,"authorId":3577615424644075,"author":{"id":3577615424644075,"idStr":"3577615424644075","authorId":3577615424644075,"name":"Tohyx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09925fd9e75b6221e2e1ebab3f7bff4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":853530154,"objectIdStr":"853530154","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"老虎","text":"老虎","html":"老虎","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853530154"}