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2021-10-21
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How Well Can Rivian Compete With Tesla?<blockquote>Rivian能与特斯拉竞争多少？</blockquote>
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As such, our stance remains neutral on Rivian ahead of its upcoming IPO.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426afcd9b23aa51eb437f865febe422c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Phillip Faraone/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian是一家由亚马逊和福特支持的电动汽车初创公司，在宣布下个月可能进行 800 亿美元的 IPO 后，最近几周一直是人们谈论的话题。</li><li>经过 12 年的研发，Rivian 的旗舰 R1T 电动皮卡车终于在上个月开始商业生产，第一批客户交付现已随时进行。</li><li>Rivian是近年来垂直整合程度最高的电动汽车制造商之一，甚至拥有自己的专属充电基础设施网络，类似于特斯拉的超级充电站。</li><li>两家电动汽车制造商商业模式的相似性引起了两者之间的比较，有些人甚至怀疑Rivian是否有机会挑战特斯拉的估值。</li><li>但由于针对细分市场的产品线有限，全球足迹有限，Rivian仍有很多东西需要证明其 800 亿美元的潜在估值，更不用说挑战特斯拉的高估值前景了。因此，在Rivian即将首次公开募股之前，我们对其的立场保持中立。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>菲利普·法拉奥内/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Rivian (pre-IPO:RIVN) is one of the most promising EV startups in recent years, backed by high-profile investors including Ford (F) and Amazon (AMZN). With a focus on making lifestyle vehicles suited to bring users closer to nature and enable greater outdoor exploration, Rivian debuted the R1T electric pickup truck and R1S electricSUVfor the consumer segment about three years ago, with plans to begin customer deliveries before the end of this year. In addition to consumer segment vehicles, Rivian is also known for their arrangement with Amazon to deliver 100,000 last-mile delivery electric vans before 2030.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian（IPO 前股票代码：RIVN）是近年来最有前途的电动汽车初创公司之一，得到了福特 (F) 和亚马逊 (AMZN) 等知名投资者的支持。Rivian专注于制造适合让用户更接近自然并实现更多户外探索的生活方式汽车，大约三年前，Rivian面向消费者市场推出了R1T电动皮卡和R1S电动SUV，并计划在今年年底前开始向客户交付。除了消费类车辆外，Rivian还因与亚马逊达成协议，在 2030 年之前交付 10 万辆最后一英里送货电动货车而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> Having just began commercial productions of the flagship R1T electric pickup truck about a month ago,Rivian is slated for an IPO valued at up to $80 billion sometime around Thanksgiving. While many electric vehicle (“EV”) startups have chosen to go public in recent years through reverse mergers with blank-cheque companies for quick access to funding for their capital-intensive ventures, Rivian will be doing it the traditional way, which is almost unprecedented for a pre-revenue company. The projected $80 billion valuation would also make Rivian’s IPO the highest valued debut on the Nasdaq this year. This puts Rivian’s anticipated valuation at almost 1/10ththe size of industry leader Tesla’s (TSLA) recent market cap of more than $800 billion, double the size of industry peer Lucid’s (LCID) $40 billion market cap, and about 1/3rdmore than Ford’s $60 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，Rivian 刚刚开始商业化生产旗舰 R1T 电动皮卡，计划在感恩节前后进行价值高达 800 亿美元的 IPO。近年来，许多电动汽车（“EV”）初创公司选择通过与空白支票公司反向合并上市，以便为其资本密集型企业快速获得资金，而Rivian将采用传统方式上市，这对于一家营收前公司来说几乎是前所未有的。预计 800 亿美元的估值也将使Rivian的 IPO 成为今年纳斯达克上估值最高的首次公开募股。这使得Rivian的预期估值几乎是行业领导者特斯拉（TSLA）近期超过 8000 亿美元市值的 1/10，是行业同行 Lucid（LCID）400 亿美元市值的两倍，比福特 600 亿美元市值高出约 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> As one of the most vertically integrated EV makers to come after Tesla, with direct participation in vehicle design and battery development to building an exclusive network of charging infrastructure, investors have begun to draw comparisons between the two and ponder on whether Rivian has the potential to grow into something like the EV titan. For years, Tesla has dominated the global EV sector in terms of sales volume and valuation due to its first-mover advantage in pioneering the passenger EV industry, and building everything from its batteries to the Supercharging network from ground-up to support mass market adoption in the last decade. But the rising number of new entrants to the emerging industry in recent years, including Rivian which provides a similar comprehensive ecosystem to support its vehicles, may just be enough to put Tesla on notice.</p><p><blockquote>作为继特斯拉之后垂直一体化程度最高的电动汽车制造商之一，直接参与车辆设计和电池开发，构建独家充电基础设施网络，投资者开始对两者之间进行比较，并思考Rivian是否有潜力成长为电动汽车巨头。多年来，特斯拉凭借其在开拓乘用车电动汽车行业方面的先发优势，在销量和估值方面一直主导着全球电动汽车行业，并从头开始建设从电池到超级充电网络的一切，以支持过去十年的大众市场采用。但近年来新兴行业的新进入者数量不断增加，包括提供类似全面生态系统来支持其汽车的Rivian，可能足以引起特斯拉的注意。</blockquote></p><p> Although Rivian has built its consumer and commercial vehicle line-up with a very specific audience in mind, namely outdoor enthusiasts and last-mile delivery operators, it does have the operational capacity and regulatory green light to proceed with sales ahead of the most comparable Tesla Cybertrucks and Semis, which have been delayed to next year. Rivian also has better range capability than some of the other pickups and SUVs, two of the best-selling vehicle segments, slated to rollout starting next year which gives it a head-start in the increasingly competitive landscape.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Rivian在构建消费和商用车阵容时考虑到了非常特定的受众，即户外运动爱好者和最后一英里送货运营商，但它确实拥有运营能力和监管绿灯，可以先于最具可比性的特斯拉Cybertrucks和Semis进行销售，这已被推迟到明年。Rivian还拥有比其他一些皮卡和 SUV 更好的续航里程能力，这两个最畅销的汽车细分市场预计将于明年开始推出，这使其在竞争日益激烈的格局中处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rivian has already gotten its foot down on the most difficult part, which is getting its vehicles to the start of production. And with proven demand as evidenced by the 48,390 reservations recorded to date for the R1T and R1S models and a long-term contract for the last-mile delivery vans with Amazon, it does appear to be among “one of the most promising of a large pool of EV startups” in recent years to compete for market share against Tesla. But with a projected valuation of $80 billion right from the get-go, Rivian is left with very little wiggle room for error in the execution of its vehicles’ upcoming debut on roadways, production ramp, and long-term growth roadmap. On this basis, we are neutral on Rivian’s anticipated valuation ahead of its upcoming IPO.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian已经踏上了最困难的部分，那就是让其车辆开始生产。迄今为止，R1T 和 R1S 车型的预订量为 48,390 辆，以及与亚马逊签订的最后一英里送货车长期合同都证明了这一点，亚马逊似乎确实是近年来 “最有前途的大型电动汽车初创公司之一 ”与特斯拉争夺市场份额。但是，由于Rivian从一开始的预计估值就高达 800 亿美元，因此在执行其车辆即将上路的首次亮相、产量提升和长期增长路线图时，几乎没有出错的余地。在此基础上，我们对Rivian即将首次公开募股前的预期估值持中立态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian概览</b></blockquote></p><p> It took almost 12 years for Rivian, founded by RJ Scaringe, to debut its first customer-ready vehicle. Based in Irvine, California, Rivian has its mission to “keep the world adventurous forever” etched deeply into every one of its vehicles. The EV maker currently services both the consumer and commercial sector with a line-up that consists of the R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV, and EDV-series last-mile delivery vans.</p><p><blockquote>由 RJ Scaringe 创立的Rivian花了近 12 年时间才推出了第一款面向客户的汽车。总部位于加州尔湾市的Rivian将 “让世界永远充满冒险 ”的使命深深地烙印在其每一辆汽车上。这家电动汽车制造商目前为消费者和商业领域提供服务，产品阵容包括 R1T 皮卡、R1S SUV 和 EDV 系列最后一英里送货车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The R1-Series</b></p><p><blockquote><b>R1系列</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9241989beaf7d245c669a7e27d83480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Rivian.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Rivian.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The R1T and R1S are built on the R1-platform designed for the consumer segment. The R1 platform combines “performance, utility and efficiency” to enable a streamlined driving and passenger experience for all adventures. In terms of technology, the R1-series vehicles capture a comprehensive in-car infotainment system with built-in connectivity features to support cloud-enabled over-the-air (“OTA”) updates, paired with a proprietary battery pack designed to deliver range capability of up to 400 miles on a single charge. The vehicles also come standard with Driver+, Rivian’s advanced driver-assistance system (“ADAS”), with features including automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, highway assist and parking assist. So far, the comprehensive suite of in-vehicle technology vies closely to those offered by Tesla, as well as many of the other contenders within the EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>R1T 和 R1S 基于专为消费者领域设计的 R1 平台打造。R1 平台集 “性能、实用性和效率 ”于一身，为所有探险活动提供简化的驾驶和乘客体验。在技术方面，R1 系列车辆配备了全面的车载信息娱乐系统，具有内置连接功能，可支持云支持的无线 (“OTA”) 更新，并配有专有电池组，可提供一次充电可达 400 英里的续航里程。这些车辆还标配了Rivian的高级驾驶辅助系统（“ADAS”）Driver+，其功能包括自动紧急制动、车道保持辅助、高速公路辅助和停车辅助。到目前为止，全面的车载技术套件与特斯拉提供的技术以及电动汽车领域的许多其他竞争者竞争激烈。</blockquote></p><p> But what really differentiates Rivian is its commitment to curating an experience-driven lifestyle vehicle that suits the needs of every outdoor enthusiast, while also ensuring compatibility across different use cases and geographies to drive demand. The consumer-centric R1-series are equipped with a complementing suite of value-add accessories and services ranging from camp tents and kitchens to exclusive insurance plans tailored to provide coverage even for extreme adventures like off-roading. While pickup trucks have been historically associated with work rigs, Rivian’s R1T electric pickup proves that it can address the needs of diverse use cases with a battery system and propulsion that can sustain extreme road conditions, while offering ample storage and additional accessories to accommodate extended road-trips.</p><p><blockquote>但真正让Rivian与众不同的是，它致力于策划一款体验驱动的生活方式车，满足每一位户外爱好者的需求，同时确保不同用例和地理位置的兼容性，以推动需求。以消费者为中心的R1系列配备了一套补充的增值配件和服务，从露营帐篷和厨房到专为越野等极端冒险而量身定制的专属保险计划。虽然皮卡历来与工作设备联系在一起，但Rivian的 R1T 电动皮卡证明了它可以通过电池系统和推进系统满足各种使用场景的需求，能够承受极端路况，同时提供充足的存储空间和额外的配件，以适应长时间的公路旅行。</blockquote></p><p> The R1-Series vehicles, especially the R1T pickup, has a better mass market appeal than Tesla’s comparable, the Cybertruck, to some extent due to its diversified use case, which underscores a robust sales outlook for Rivian. Tesla’s proposed launch for the Cybertrucks have also again been proven to be overly optimistic given its extremely complex manufacturing process, which gives Rivian a head start in the competition for market share. The quirky steel-bodied electric pickup truck, which was originally slated for start of production and deliveries by 2021 year-end, has been quietly delayed until at least the end of 2022 per a recent update made to the vehicle’s online sales page. Nonetheless, both contenders have some serious competition coming up, including Ford’s F-150 Lightning and GMC’s electric Hummer which start customer deliveries next year. The F-150 Lightning and GMC electric Hummer’s ICE-counterparts have historically been the biggest sellers amongst the pickup truck segment, and both battery-powered pickups seem to be on track towards similar achievements, with Ford having recently doubled its annual production capacity for the F-150 Lightning to 80,000 units to address rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>R1 系列汽车，尤其是 R1T 皮卡，比特斯拉的同类产品 Cybertruck 更具大众市场吸引力，这在一定程度上是由于其多样化的使用场景，这凸显了Rivian强劲的销售前景。鉴于特斯拉提出的 Cybertrucks 制造工艺极其复杂，这使得Rivian在市场份额竞争中占据了领先地位，因此该公司提议推出的 Cybertrucks 也再次被证明是过于乐观的。根据该车在线销售页面最近的更新，这款古怪的钢制车身电动皮卡车原定于 2021 年底开始生产和交付，但已悄然推迟到至少 2022 年底。尽管如此，这两款竞争者都将面临激烈的竞争，包括福特的 F-150 Lightning 和 GMC 的电动悍马，它们将于明年开始向客户交付。F-150 Lightning 和 GMC 电动悍马的 ICE 同类产品历来都是皮卡领域最畅销的车型，而这两款电池驱动的皮卡似乎也有望取得类似的成就，福特最近将 F-150 Lightning 的年产能提高了一倍，达到 8 万辆，以满足不断增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The EDV-Series</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EDV系列</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e6b9f7f3154d596eafce2dc1491baa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Rivian Automotive, Inc. Form S-1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Rivian汽车公司 S-1 表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to consumer-oriented EVs, Rivian also services fleet-based mobility with its EDV-series electric last-mile delivery vans. The vans come in three models based on different storage capacities and range capability:</p><p><blockquote>除了面向消费者的电动汽车外，Rivian还通过其 EDV 系列电动最后一英里送货车为基于车队的移动提供服务。根据不同的存储容量和续航里程能力，货车有三种型号：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>EDV 500 – Slated for initial deliveries in December, the EDV 500 has range capability of up to 150 miles on a single charge with 500 cubic feet of storage.</li> <li>EDV 700 – Slated for initial deliveries in early 2022, the EDV 700 has range capability of up to 150 miles on a single charge with 660 cubic feet of storage.</li> <li>EDV 900 – The EDV 900 will launch after deliveries begin for the EDV 500 and EDV 700 vans. As the world’s first long-range electric work van, the EDV 900 boasts 840 cubic feet of storage capacity and is capable of traveling up to 120 miles on a single charge.</li> </ul> Built on the RCV platform, the EDV-series boasts a range of up to 150 miles on a single charge and are equipped with the same advanced technology as the R1-series, like Driver+. The EDV-series are also exclusively compatible with Rivian’s proprietary fleet management service tool, FleetOS. FleetOS is a cloud-based fleet management tool that offers a wide array of services ranging from fleet distribution and charging management, to fleet insurance and financing. The tool aims to minimize total costs of ownership for fleet operators, while ensuring a recurring revenue stream for Rivian over the course of the vehicles’ lifecycles.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>EDV 500 – EDV 500 计划于 12 月首次交付，单次充电可行驶 150 英里，存储空间为 500 立方英尺。</li><li>EDV 700 – EDV 700 计划于 2022 年初首次交付，单次充电续航里程可达 150 英里，存储空间为 660 立方英尺。</li><li>EDV 900–EDV 900将在EDV 500和EDV 700货车开始交付后推出。作为世界上第一款远程电动工作车，EDV 900 拥有 840 立方英尺的存储容量，一次充电可行驶 120 英里。</li></ul>EDV系列基于RCV平台打造，一次充电可行驶150英里，并配备了与R1系列相同的先进技术，如Driver+。EDV 系列还与Rivian专有的车队管理服务工具 FleetOS 独家兼容。FleetOS是一个基于云的车队管理工具，提供从车队分配和收费管理到车队保险和融资的广泛服务。该工具旨在最大限度地降低车队运营商的总拥有成本，同时确保Rivian在车辆生命周期内获得经常性收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> With accelerated e-commerce adoption during the pandemic and increasingly urgent carbon neutralization mandates, global demand for electric last-mile delivery vehicles is expected to advance at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of more than 13% over the next five years, which makes strong tailwinds for Rivian’s commercial business unit in the long-run. Paired with a long-term exclusive contract to provide 100,000 EDV-Series delivery vans to Amazon into 2030, Rivian benefits from higher financial visibility. Amazon currently has exclusive rights to Rivian's EDV-Series vehicles in the first four years following initial productions, and a right of first refusal in the two years thereafter. Amazon and Rivian’s collaboration will also serve as validation for other commercial customers in the long-run, which further bolsters the segment’s sales outlook. And similar to the narrative on Tesla’s Cybertruck, delays on the comparable Semi trucks also put Rivian ahead of the EV titan in penetrating the fast-growing last-mile delivery market.</p><p><blockquote>随着大流行病期间电子商务的加速普及和日益紧迫的碳中和任务，预计未来五年，全球对电动最后一英里送货车的需求将以超过 13% 的复合年增长率 (“CAGR”) 增长，从长远来看，这将为Rivian的商业业务部门带来强大的推动力。再加上到 2030 年向亚马逊提供 100,000 辆 EDV 系列送货车的长期独家合同，Rivian受益于更高的财务知名度。亚马逊目前拥有 Rivian EDV 系列车辆在初始生产后四年内的独家权利，并在此后两年内拥有优先购买权。从长远来看，亚马逊和Rivian的合作也将为其他商业客户提供验证，从而进一步提振该细分市场的销售前景。与特斯拉 Cybertruck 的情况类似，同类半挂卡车的延误也让Rivian在打入快速增长的最后一英里送货市场方面领先于电动汽车巨头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Direct Go-to-Market Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>直接进入市场战略</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to Tesla and many of its industry peers, Rivian adopts a direct sales go-to-market strategy that involves showroom-style “experience spaces” supported by an online sales platform. Rivian currently makes most of its sales online, and operates six service centers across California, Illinois, Washington and New York, along with a fleet of 11 on-demand mobile service vehicles and a 24/7 service support center in Michigan. Another 120 service centers and 1,000 mobile service vans are on the way, with planned rollouts through to 2023. Rivian’s vehicles will be displayed through four primary types of experience spaces:</p><p><blockquote>与特斯拉及其许多行业同行类似，Rivian采取的是直接销售进入市场的战略，即在在线销售平台的支持下，开设展厅式的 “体验空间 ”。Rivian目前的大部分销售都是在网上进行的，在加州、伊利诺伊州、华盛顿州和纽约州运营着六个服务中心，还有一支由11辆按需移动服务车辆组成的车队，以及一个位于密歇根州的24/7服务支持中心。另外 120 个服务中心和 1,000 辆移动服务车正在建设中，计划于 2023 年推出。Rivian的车辆将通过四种主要类型的体验空间进行展示：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Hubs: Permanent experience centers situated in high-density city neighborhoods. The first Rivian hub will open in Venice, California on October 17th.</li> <li>Seasonal Spaces: Temporary pop-up spaces aimed at introducing the Rivian brand to new communities</li> <li>Outposts: Outposts are typically located in adventure destinations, where Rivian vehicles can be rented by users to enable immediate exploration of the outdoors</li> <li>Preserves: Protected land that Rivian plans to help conserve and save. Rivian vehicles will be provided for community use in preserves.</li> </ul> In addition to the experience spaces, test drives can also bearranged online, where an exclusive Field Specialist will be allocated to guide the process.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>中心：位于高密度城市社区的永久性体验中心。第一个Rivian中心将于10月17日在加州威尼斯开业。</li><li>季节性空间：旨在向新社区介绍Rivian品牌的临时弹出式空间</li><li>前哨：前哨通常位于探险目的地，用户可以在那里租用Rivian汽车，以便立即探索户外</li><li>保护区：Rivian计划帮助保护和拯救的受保护土地。Rivian车辆将提供给保护区的社区使用。</li></ul>除了体验空间之外，还可以在线安排试驾，届时将指派一名专属的领域专家来指导整个过程。</blockquote></p><p> Like many recent EV startups, migrating away from traditional dealership sales will allow Rivian to further enhance brand awareness through a refined and relaxed environment. With showrooms located in city neighborhoods and experience-oriented spaces, Rivian hopes to alleviate the pressure to purchase that customers typically experience in sales-centric dealerships and instead provide a refined and information space for them to learn about the brand and engage with the technology that it has to offer. And from a cost perspective, the direct sales strategy through experience spaces combined with a supporting online sales platform will help Rivian reduce inventory financial costs. It will also enable buyers with the option to customize vehicle purchases to their own liking, and provide a completely customer-centric experience as promised. The realized cost efficiencies will also allow greater capital deployment towards other areas of growing the business, such as enhancing customer experience, and ultimately creating incremental value for its shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>与许多最近的电动汽车初创公司一样，摆脱传统的经销商销售将使Rivian能够通过精致和轻松的环境进一步提高品牌知名度。Rivian希望通过位于城市社区和以体验为导向的空间的陈列室来减轻客户通常在以销售为中心的经销商中经历的购买压力，而是为他们提供一个精致的信息空间来了解品牌并参与其提供的技术。从成本角度来看，通过体验空间结合配套的在线销售平台的直销策略将有助于Rivian降低库存财务成本。它还将使买家能够根据自己的喜好定制车辆购买，并像承诺的那样提供完全以客户为中心的体验。实现的成本效率还将允许将更多的资本部署到业务增长的其他领域，例如增强客户体验，并最终为股东创造增量价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rivian’s R1-Series vehicles will first be made available in North America, with further expansion to Western Europe starting in 2023. Although Rivian’s foreseeable markets lackluster compared to Tesla’s presence across 40 countries on the map, it has been strategically planned to maximize value and support the company’s long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的 R1 系列汽车将首先在北美上市，并于 2023 年开始进一步扩展到西欧。虽然与特斯拉在地图上 40 个国家的业务相比，Rivian可预见的市场黯然失色，但它已经制定了战略规划，以实现价值最大化并支持公司的长期发展。</blockquote></p><p> With the Biden Administration’s recent pledge to reduce greenhouse gas pollution by at least 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030, the U.S. has seen a heightened urgency towards electrifying the transportation sector. Multiple infrastructure bills that are currently under review have been set to include funding for building out the U.S. EV economy. President Biden has also recently made it a national goal to have half of new car sales be emissions-free by 2030. The continued rollout of favorable policy support from the government are expected to stimulate the American EV economy, and propel domestic EV demand growth at a CAGR of 30% through to the end of the decade. This makes strong tailwinds for Rivian, which is expected to have its vehicles become a key part of the estimated 14 million EVs on American roads by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府最近承诺到 2030 年将温室气体污染在 2005 年的基础上减少至少 50% 至 52%，这使得美国交通部门电气化的紧迫性日益增强。目前正在审查的多项基础设施法案将包括为建设美国电动汽车经济提供资金。拜登总统最近还将到 2030 年使一半的新车销售实现零排放作为国家目标。政府持续推出有利的政策支持预计将刺激美国电动汽车经济，并推动国内电动汽车需求在本十年末以30%的复合年增长率增长。这为Rivian带来了强劲的推动力，预计到 2030 年，该公司的汽车将成为美国道路上估计 1400 万辆电动汽车的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s further expansion into Western Europe beginning 2023 is also a strategic move that is expected to pay large dividends in the long-run. Europe is currently the world’s second-largest EV market, running closely behind China and accounting for 42% of global EV sales in 2020. The region’s EV adoption rate has continued to soar in the first half of 2021, with almost 20% of new passenger vehicle sales being battery-powered. Much of this progress is by courtesy of Europe’s stringent regulatory landscape over greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has recently tightened its climate change policy by raising its emissions reduction target to at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels through the “Fit for 55” legislation package. The pact has also committed to having all new vehicle sales be emissions-free by 2035 to encourage greater EV adoption across the broader European markets, including France and Germany, in coming years. With Tesla only accounting for 7% of Europe’s EV market share, and SUVs continuing to dominate the region’s new car sales, Rivian is well-positioned for high-growth opportunities ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian从 2023 年初进一步向西欧扩张也是一项战略举措，从长远来看，预计将带来巨大的红利。欧洲目前是全球第二大电动汽车市场，仅次于中国，2020 年占全球电动汽车销量的 42%。2021 年上半年，该地区的电动汽车普及率继续飙升，近 20% 的新乘用车销量是电池驱动的。这一进展在很大程度上要归功于欧洲对温室气体排放的严格监管环境。欧盟最近收紧了气候变化政策，通过 “适合 55 人 ”一揽子立法，将到 2030 年的减排目标提高到比 1990 年水平至少减少 55%。该协议还承诺到 2035 年使所有新车销售实现零排放，以鼓励未来几年在包括法国和德国在内的更广泛的欧洲市场更多地采用电动汽车。特斯拉仅占欧洲电动汽车市场份额的 7%，而 SUV 继续主导该地区的新车销售，因此Rivian在未来的高增长机遇方面处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Highly Vertically Integrated Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高度垂直整合的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian is also one of the most vertically integrated EV start-ups in recent years. Not only does it design and manufacture its vehicles and related technology in-house, Rivian also operates an exclusive network of charging infrastructure like Tesla does. The EV maker also provides a wide variety of post-sales turnkey solutions to secure recurring revenues, underpinning sustainable long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian也是近年来垂直整合程度最高的电动汽车初创企业之一。Rivian不仅在内部设计和制造车辆及相关技术，还像特斯拉一样运营着独家充电基础设施网络。这家电动汽车制造商还提供各种售后交钥匙解决方案，以确保经常性收入，支撑可持续的长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In-House Production Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部生产策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian currently performs its own in-house R&D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, in-car infotainment and connectivity system, integrated safety, chassis and Driver+ ADAS system. Productions for the R1-Series and EDV-Series are also currently in process at its Normal, Illinois plant, which was purchased from Mitsubishi in 2017. The Normal plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 units, with further expansion to 200,000 units by 2023 at full production ramp.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前对其车辆的几乎每个方面都进行了自己的内部研发，包括动力系统、电池技术、车载信息娱乐和连接系统、集成安全、底盘和驾驶员+ ADAS系统。R1 系列和 EDV 系列的生产目前也在其位于伊利诺伊州的 Normal 工厂进行，该工厂于 2017 年从三菱购买。正常工厂目前的年产能为 150,000 台，到 2023 年满负荷生产时将进一步扩大至 200,000 台。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker has begun its hunt for a second assembly plant in the U.S. since July, with speculations of a finalized investment in a factory located near Fort Worth, Texas. The new facility is expected to have an annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. If Rivian confirms its investment in the Texas plant, it is slated to benefit from tax incentives valued at up to $440 million, which offsets some of the significant investment costs. Many California-based companies, including Tesla, have set up offices and manufacturing facilities in Texas in recent years to take advantage of the state’s lower tax rate, as well as affordable costs of living, while pressing forward with expansion plans. The Texas plant would cost Rivian about $5 billion. Much of the capital investment commitment would be deployed towards real property improvements and other construction costs required to bring the plant online by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>自 7 月以来，这家电动汽车制造商已开始在美国寻找第二家装配厂，并有猜测称已敲定对位于德克萨斯州沃思堡附近的一家工厂的投资。新工厂预计年产能为20万辆汽车。如果Rivian确认对德克萨斯工厂的投资，预计将受益于价值高达 4.4 亿美元的税收优惠，这将抵消部分重大投资成本。近年来，包括特斯拉在内的许多加州公司都在得克萨斯州设立了办事处和制造工厂，以利用该州较低的税率和可负担的生活成本，同时推进扩张计划。德克萨斯工厂将花费Rivian约 50 亿美元。大部分资本投资承诺将用于房地产改善和其他建设成本，以在 2024 年之前使工厂上线。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Rivian is also looking for a location to house its productions in Europe starting in 2023. While no site has been confirmed yet, the U.K., Germany and Hungary are amongst the key locations being considered. The materialization of Rivian’s production expansion plans across North America and Europe will strengthen its efficiency in scaling productions, while further bolstering its market penetration capabilities against Tesla and other industry peers, as global EV adoption takes off with heightened demand in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Rivian也在寻找从 2023 年开始在欧洲生产的地点。虽然还没有确定地点，但英国、德国和匈牙利是正在考虑的主要地点之一。随着未来几年全球电动汽车的普及和需求的增加，Rivian在北美和欧洲的生产扩张计划得以实现，将提高其扩大生产规模的效率，同时进一步增强其相对于特斯拉和其他行业同行的市场渗透能力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Turnkey Post-Sales Solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交钥匙售后解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition to the design and development of its vehicles and batteries, Rivian also makes its own exclusive suite of after-sales services. These include FleetOS, Driver+, Rivian Financial Services and Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance, which are all powered by Rivian Cloud:</p><p><blockquote>除了设计和开发车辆和电池外，Rivian还提供自己的专属售后服务套件。其中包括 FleetOS、Driver+、Rivian金融服务和基于Rivian远程信息处理的保险，所有这些都由Rivian云提供支持：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian Cloud: Facilitated by AWS, Amazon’s cloud business, Rivian Cloud enables remote diagnostics, remote vehicle controls and OTA software updates. It also stores and analyzes data to enable Rivian’s suite of after-sales services and solutions, including FleetOS, Driver+, Rivian Financial Services, and Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance.</li> <li>FleetOS: FleetOS is a fleet management tool that accompanies its commercial segment vehicles, starting with the EDV-Series. Using data collected and analyzed by Rivian Cloud, FleetOS is capable of managing vehicle distributions, telematics, software services and solutions, charging cycles, driver safety and training, vehicle security, remote diagnostics, 360+ collision reports, and other connectivity solutions.</li> <li>Driver+: The level 2 ADAS that comes standard in every Rivian vehicle. Driver+ is compatible with in-vehicle connectivity to support OTA deployment of level 3 autonomy in the future when the technology becomes available. Driver+ works with a suite of cameras, ultrasonic sensors, radars and a high-precision GPS antenna to enable ADAS features including automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, highway assist, and parking assistance. Driver+ for EDV-Series vehicles also includes an overhead clearance warning feature. Meanwhile, Tesla continues to press forward with its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving developments, which will likely be incorporated into level 4/5 fully autonomous robotaxis in the future and plays a critical role in Tesla’s elevated valuation at the moment. This pretty much puts Rivian in the backseat when pitted against Tesla’s valuation prospects.</li> <li>Rivian Financial Services: Rivian offers exclusive financing options for its buyers through Rivian Financial Services. The lending program is jointly operated with Chase Bank. Rivian Financial Services enables Rivian to offer its buyers with personalized financing options, while securing recurring revenues from commission fees earned for the conversion of customers on the Rivian Financial Services platform.</li> <li>Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance: Rivian’s in-house telematics-based insurance uses user data collected from vehicles to tailor the quality of coverage and lower after-sales costs for buyers. Rivian is not the first to launch this kind of insurance offering. With the advent of cloud-based technology enabling real-time analytics on data collected from in-vehicle sensory infrastructure, others including Tesla,GM and Ford have launched similar telematics-based auto insurance programs. Considering better quality of coverage and cost efficiencies offered by telematics-based insurance from both the underwriters’ and consumers’ point of view, the eventual elimination of traditional auto insurance is imminent. By offering in-house telematics-based insurance coverage, Rivian puts itself in a competitive position against industry peers, while also attracting sales by lowering total costs of ownership. Rivian currently offers telematics-based insurance coverage on its vehicles in 48 states, while Tesla only offers similar in California and Texas.</li> </ul> Based on an average useful life of 10 years, Rivian expects each consumer and commercial vehicle sold to generate additional lifetime revenues of $67,900 and $64,600, respectively, through the provision of the above after-sales services.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian云： 在亚马逊云业务 AWS 的推动下，Rivian云支持远程诊断、远程车辆控制和 OTA 软件更新。它还存储和分析数据，以支持Rivian的售后服务和解决方案套件，包括 FleetOS、Driver+、Rivian金融服务和基于Rivian远程信息处理的保险。</li><li>FleetOS：FleetOS 是一款车队管理工具，伴随其商用车辆，从 EDV 系列开始。使用Rivian云收集和分析的数据，FleetOS能够管理车辆分配、远程信息处理、软件服务和解决方案、充电周期、驾驶员安全和培训、车辆安全、远程诊断、360+碰撞报告和其他连接解决方案。</li><li>Driver+：每辆Rivian汽车标配的2级ADAS。Driver+与车载连接兼容，以支持未来该技术可用时3级自动驾驶的OTA部署。Driver+ 与一套摄像头、超声波传感器、雷达和高精度 GPS 天线配合使用，以实现 ADAS 功能，包括自动紧急制动、车道保持辅助、高速公路辅助和停车辅助。适用于 EDV 系列车辆的 Driver+ 还包括头顶间隙警告功能。与此同时，特斯拉继续推进其自动驾驶仪和全自动驾驶的研发，这很可能在未来被纳入 4/5 级全自动机器人出租车中，并在特斯拉目前的估值提升中发挥着关键作用。与特斯拉的估值前景相比，这几乎让Rivian处于次要地位。</li><li>Rivian金融服务：Rivian通过Rivian金融服务为其买家提供独家融资选择。该贷款计划由大通银行联合运营。Rivian金融服务使Rivian能够为其买家提供个性化的融资选择，同时从Rivian金融服务平台上客户转化所赚取的佣金中获得经常性收入。</li><li>Rivian基于远程信息处理的保险： Rivian内部基于远程信息处理的保险利用从车辆中收集的用户数据来定制保险质量，并为买家降低售后成本。Rivian并不是第一个推出此类保险产品的公司。随着基于云的技术的出现，能够对从车载传感基础设施收集的数据进行实时分析，特斯拉、通用汽车和福特等其他公司也推出了类似的基于远程信息处理的汽车保险计划。从保险公司和消费者的角度来看，基于远程信息处理的保险提供了更好的承保质量和成本效益，传统汽车保险的最终淘汰迫在眉睫。通过提供基于内部远程信息处理的保险范围，Rivian将自己置于与行业同行相比的竞争地位，同时还通过降低总拥有成本来吸引销售。Rivian目前在48个州为其车辆提供基于远程信息处理的保险，而特斯拉仅在加州和德克萨斯州提供类似的保险。</li></ul>基于 10 年的平均使用寿命，Rivian预计通过提供上述售后服务，售出的每辆消费和商用车将分别产生 67,900 美元和 64,600 美元的额外终身收入。</blockquote></p><p> Based on an average useful life of 10 years, Rivian expects each consumer and commercial vehicle sold to generate additional lifetime revenues of $67,900 and $64,600, respectively, through the provision of the above after-sales services.</p><p><blockquote>基于 10 年的平均使用寿命，Rivian预计通过提供上述售后服务，售出的每辆消费和商用车将分别产生 67,900 美元和 64,600 美元的额外终身收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exclusive Charging Network</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专属充电网络</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla was the first EV maker to set up its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure. Although an incredibly expensive endeavor to take on, it was really the EV titan’s only option to encourage mass market adoption of its vehicles during the early stages when public charging was rare. To date, only Chinese EV maker NIO and Rivian have engaged in similar investments, while the majority of EV startups and legacy automakers have instead relied on exclusive partnerships with public charging infrastructure providers to avoid additional capital deployment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是第一家建立自己的专属充电基础设施网络的电动汽车制造商。虽然这是一项非常昂贵的努力，但在公共充电很少见的早期阶段，这确实是这家电动汽车巨头鼓励大众市场采用其汽车的唯一选择。迄今为止，只有中国电动汽车制造商蔚来和Rivian进行了类似的投资，而大多数电动汽车初创公司和传统汽车制造商则依靠与公共充电基础设施提供商的独家合作伙伴关系来避免额外的资本部署。</blockquote></p><p> The main reason for Rivian’s investment into building out its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure is really to close the loop on its comprehensive suite of complementary offerings and set its customers free from range anxiety, even when they are travelling further out in secluded areas. Rivian currently offers the following charging solutions:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian投资建设自己的专属充电基础设施网络的主要原因，实际上是为了完成其全面的配套产品的闭环，让客户摆脱里程焦虑，即使他们在偏远地区出行。Rivian目前提供以下充电解决方案：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian Adventure Network (“RAN”): RAN will eventually be composed of a network of more than 3,500 Rivian-designed direct current (“DC”) fast chargers located across 600 sites by 2023. The network of fast chargers are designed to charge up to 140 miles within 20 minutes, and will be strategically located in more remote “adventure destinations”, in addition to major highways.</li> <li>Rivian Waypoints: Rivian’s proprietary network of level 2 chargers installed at partner destinations, such as hotels, offices, restaurants and parks, across the U.S. and Canada. Rivian Waypoint chargers can charge up to 25 miles per hour.</li> <li>Fleet Charging: Commercial customers have the option of installing Rivian’s proprietary charging depot hardware at onsite. Fleet Charging enables commercial customers to manage fleet charging seamlessly and centrally with FleetOS.</li> </ul> <b>Is the $80 Billion Valuation Viable?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian探险网络（“RAN”）： 到 2023 年，RAN 最终将由 3500 多个Rivian设计的直流（“DC”）快速充电器组成，分布在 600 个站点。快速充电器网络的设计目的是在 20 分钟内充电 140 英里，除了主要高速公路外，还将战略性地设置在更偏远的 “探险目的地 ”。</li><li>Rivian航点： Rivian专有的 2 级充电器网络安装在美国和加拿大的酒店、办公室、餐厅和公园等合作伙伴目的地。Rivian航路点充电器每小时可充电25英里。</li><li>车队充电： 商业客户可以选择在现场安装Rivian专有的充电站硬件。车队充电使商业客户能够使用FleetOS无缝集中管理车队充电。</li></ul><b>800亿美元的估值可行吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> While Rivian is amongst one of the most promising EV startups in recent years, a potential $80 billion valuation at its upcoming IPO would put it in the ranks of established legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Stellantis(NYSE:STLA)and Honda(NYSE:HMC)by market cap. It would also make it almost 1/10ththe value in which Tesla is currently being traded at, despite not having generated any meaningful revenues yet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian是近年来最有前途的电动汽车初创公司之一，但其即将进行的 IPO 估值可能达到 800 亿美元，这将使其跻身通用汽车、福特、Stellantis（纽约证券交易所股票代码：STLA）和本田（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HMC）等老牌传统汽车制造商的行列市值。这也将使其几乎是特斯拉目前交易价格的1/10，尽管尚未产生任何有意义的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Rivian’s latest S-1 filing, the company has not generated any revenues so far. Commercial productions have only started last month, with deliveries to begin any day now. This puts Rivian in a similar position as Lucid, another highly valued pre-revenue EV startup that went public in July. With a start of production and delivery timeline similar to Rivian’s, Lucid currently trades at about 3x its estimated revenues for 2025 with a market cap of $41 billion. Using the metric as a proxy on Rivian’s anticipated $80 billion valuation, the EV maker would need to generate revenues of $27.3 billion by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据Rivian最新的 S-1 文件，该公司迄今为止尚未产生任何收入。商业制作上个月才开始，现在随时可以开始交付。这使得Rivian处于与 Lucid 类似的境地，Lucid 是另一家高估值的营收前电动汽车初创公司，于 7 月上市。Lucid 的生产和交付时间表与Rivian相似，目前的交易价格约为其 2025 年预计收入的 3 倍，市值为 410 亿美元。以这一指标作为Rivian预计 800 亿美元估值的指标，这家电动汽车制造商到 2025 年需要创造 273 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Our preliminary back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that Rivian would have to sell approximately 350,000 vehicles by 2025 to justify an $80 billion valuation based on comparable industry multiples (i.e. $27.3 billion revenue / $78,000 ASP):</p><p><blockquote>我们的初步后端计算显示，到 2025 年，Rivian必须销售约 350,000 辆汽车，才能根据可比行业倍数（即 273 亿美元收入 / 78,000 美元平均售价）证明 800 亿美元的估值是合理的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian is estimated to sell its vehicles at an average selling price (“ASP”) of about $78,000.</li> </ul> <ul> <ul> <li>The R1T starts at $67,500 with an adventure option priced at $73,000. Pricing on the R1T can go as high as $103,965 with fully loaded options. This generates an estimated ASP of $81,488.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the R1S starts at $70,000 with an adventure option priced at $75,500. Pricing on the R1S can go as high as $98,765 with fully loaded options, including the foldable tent and camp kitchen accessories which are currently unavailable for the SUV, but will be eventually. This generates an estimated ASP of $81,422.</li> <li>Pricing on the EDV-Series is currently undisclosed, but the industry average is about $50,000 with the most expensive Bollinger Deliver-E expected to be priced at $75,000 and the least expensive Canoo MPDV expected to be priced at $33,000.</li> <li>The average of consumer and commercial vehicle lifetime revenues are approximately $66,300 over 10 years. This makes average other revenues of about $6,630 per vehicle per year.</li> <li>Taking the three separate vehicle ASPs together, Rivian’s consolidated vehicle ASP is forecasted at about $71,000. Adding average incremental revenues of $6,630 per vehicle on top, Rivian’s ASP is projected at about $78,000.</li> </ul> <li>In terms of production capacity, Rivian’s Normal plant can currently produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. By 2023, the plant is expected to reach production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year. An additional Europe plant is expected to come online by 2023 to support Rivian’s overseas expansion plans, and a second U.S. plant is expected to come online by 2024. Assuming both additional plants can produce 150,000 vehicles each on an annual basis, total production capacity would reach 500,000 vehicles by 2025. On this basis, Rivian is expected to have sufficient production capacity to meet the revenue threshold required to support its potential $80 billion valuation.</li> <li>In terms of actual demand, global passenger EV sales are expected to exceed 12.2 million units by 2025.28% of related sales are expected to come from Europe,10% from the U.S. and about 15% from Canada. Hence, by geography, Rivian has a total addressable market of about 6.5 million units. With SUVs and pickup trucks accounting for about 70% of annual new car sales, this further narrows Rivian’s total addressable market down to about 4.5 million vehicles by 2025. Selling 350,000 vehicles by 2025 would yield an 8% share of Rivian’s TAM of 4.5 million units. This makes a tough market share figure to compete for against reputable pickup truck and SUV brands like Ford, GM and Toyota(NYSE:TM), which are all undergoing an aggressive transition to electric.</li> <li>Rivian_-_Supporting_Calculations.pdf</li> </ul> While it is not entirely out of the question for Rivian to achieve our projected sales target by 2025, it will be a tough one. The EV maker has almost no room for error in the execution of its long-term growth roadmap in order to justify the $80 billion valuation. With Rivian having recently been a victim of the ongoing chip supply shortages, which had caused delays to the start of production of the R1T and R1S, similar woes are expected to recur as auto chip makers continue to warn of extended lead times that will not be going away anytime soon. Based on these considerations, we are neutral on Rivian’s anticipated valuation ahead of its upcoming IPO.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>据估计，Rivian的平均售价（“ASP”）约为 78,000 美元。</li></ul><ul><ul><li>R1T 起价为 67,500 美元，冒险选项售价为 73,000 美元。如果选装齐全，R1T 的定价可高达 103,965 美元。这产生了81,488美元的估计平均售价。</li><li>与此同时，R1S 起价为 70,000 美元，冒险选装件售价为 75,500 美元。R1S 的售价可高达 98,765 美元，配备满载选项，包括可折叠帐篷和露营厨房配件，这些配件目前 SUV 还没有，但最终将会提供。这产生了81,422美元的估计平均售价。</li><li>EDV系列的定价目前尚未披露，但行业平均价格约为50,000美元，其中最贵的Bollinger Deliver-E预计定价为75,000美元，最便宜的Canoo MPDV预计定价为33,000美元。</li><li>10 年内，消费者和商用车的平均收入约为 66,300 美元。这使得每辆车每年的平均其他收入约为 6,630 美元。</li><li>将三个单独的汽车平均售价加在一起，Rivian的汽车综合平均售价预计约为 7.1 万美元。再加上每辆车 6,630 美元的平均增量收入，Rivian的平均售价预计约为 78,000 美元。</li></ul><li>就产能而言，Rivian的正常工厂目前每年最多可生产 15 万辆汽车。到2023年，该工厂预计将达到每年20万辆汽车的产能。另一家欧洲工厂预计将于 2023 年投产，以支持Rivian的海外扩张计划，第二家美国工厂预计将于 2024 年投产。假设两家新增工厂每年可生产 150,000 辆汽车，到 2025 年，总产能将达到 500,000 辆。在此基础上，Rivian有望拥有足够的产能来满足支撑其潜在800亿美元估值所需的收入门槛。</li><li>从实际需求来看，到2025年，全球乘用车电动汽车销量预计将超过1220万辆。28%的相关销量预计来自欧洲，10%来自美国，约15%来自加拿大。因此，从地理位置来看，Rivian的潜在市场总量约为650万台。SUV 和皮卡约占每年新车销量的 70%，到 2025 年，Rivian的潜在市场总量将进一步缩小到约 450 万辆。到 2025 年售出 35 万辆汽车，将在Rivian 450 万辆 TAM 中获得 8% 的份额。这使得与福特、通用汽车和丰田（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TM）等知名皮卡和 SUV 品牌竞争成为一个艰难的市场份额数字，这些品牌都在积极向电动汽车转型。</li><li>Rivian_-_支持计算.pdf</li></ul>虽然Rivian到 2025 年实现我们的预计销售目标并非完全不可能，但这将是一项艰巨的任务。这家电动汽车制造商在执行其长期增长路线图时几乎没有出错的余地，以证明 800 亿美元的估值是合理的。Rivian最近成为持续芯片供应短缺的受害者，导致 R1T 和 R1S 的投产延迟，随着汽车芯片制造商继续警告交货时间延长，预计类似的灾难还会再次发生，而且不会很快消失。基于这些考虑，我们对Rivian即将首次公开募股前的预期估值持中立态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a highly vertically integrated business model and robust demand from its niche market, Rivian still has much to prove for its potential $80 billion valuation, let alone competing against the valuation prospects of Tesla. On the considerations of our foregoing analysis, our stance remains neutral on Rivian’s $80 billion valuation ahead of its IPO next month.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Rivian拥有高度垂直整合的商业模式和利基市场的强劲需求，但其800亿美元的潜在估值仍有很多需要证明的地方，更不用说与特斯拉的估值前景竞争了。基于上述分析的考虑，我们对Rivian下个月首次公开募股前 800 亿美元的估值保持中立。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Well Can Rivian Compete With Tesla?<blockquote>Rivian能与特斯拉竞争多少？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Well Can Rivian Compete With Tesla?<blockquote>Rivian能与特斯拉竞争多少？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 13:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian, an EV start-up backed by Amazon and Ford, has been the talk-of-the-town in recent weeks after its announcement of a potential $80-billion IPO next month.</li> <li>After 12 years of R&D, Rivian's flagship R1T electric pickup truck finally began commercial productions last month, with the first customer deliveries happening any day now.</li> <li>Rivian is one of the most vertically integrated EV makers in recent years and even has its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure similar to Tesla's Superchargers.</li> <li>Similarities in both EV makers' business models have drawn comparisons between the two, with some even pondering if Rivian has a chance to challenge Tesla's valuation.</li> <li>But with a limited product line made for a market niche, and a limited global footprint, Rivian still has much to prove for its potential $80-bilion valuation, let alone challenging Tesla's elevated valuation prospects. As such, our stance remains neutral on Rivian ahead of its upcoming IPO.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426afcd9b23aa51eb437f865febe422c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Phillip Faraone/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian是一家由亚马逊和福特支持的电动汽车初创公司，在宣布下个月可能进行 800 亿美元的 IPO 后，最近几周一直是人们谈论的话题。</li><li>经过 12 年的研发，Rivian 的旗舰 R1T 电动皮卡车终于在上个月开始商业生产，第一批客户交付现已随时进行。</li><li>Rivian是近年来垂直整合程度最高的电动汽车制造商之一，甚至拥有自己的专属充电基础设施网络，类似于特斯拉的超级充电站。</li><li>两家电动汽车制造商商业模式的相似性引起了两者之间的比较，有些人甚至怀疑Rivian是否有机会挑战特斯拉的估值。</li><li>但由于针对细分市场的产品线有限，全球足迹有限，Rivian仍有很多东西需要证明其 800 亿美元的潜在估值，更不用说挑战特斯拉的高估值前景了。因此，在Rivian即将首次公开募股之前，我们对其的立场保持中立。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>菲利普·法拉奥内/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Rivian (pre-IPO:RIVN) is one of the most promising EV startups in recent years, backed by high-profile investors including Ford (F) and Amazon (AMZN). With a focus on making lifestyle vehicles suited to bring users closer to nature and enable greater outdoor exploration, Rivian debuted the R1T electric pickup truck and R1S electricSUVfor the consumer segment about three years ago, with plans to begin customer deliveries before the end of this year. In addition to consumer segment vehicles, Rivian is also known for their arrangement with Amazon to deliver 100,000 last-mile delivery electric vans before 2030.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian（IPO 前股票代码：RIVN）是近年来最有前途的电动汽车初创公司之一，得到了福特 (F) 和亚马逊 (AMZN) 等知名投资者的支持。Rivian专注于制造适合让用户更接近自然并实现更多户外探索的生活方式汽车，大约三年前，Rivian面向消费者市场推出了R1T电动皮卡和R1S电动SUV，并计划在今年年底前开始向客户交付。除了消费类车辆外，Rivian还因与亚马逊达成协议，在 2030 年之前交付 10 万辆最后一英里送货电动货车而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> Having just began commercial productions of the flagship R1T electric pickup truck about a month ago,Rivian is slated for an IPO valued at up to $80 billion sometime around Thanksgiving. While many electric vehicle (“EV”) startups have chosen to go public in recent years through reverse mergers with blank-cheque companies for quick access to funding for their capital-intensive ventures, Rivian will be doing it the traditional way, which is almost unprecedented for a pre-revenue company. The projected $80 billion valuation would also make Rivian’s IPO the highest valued debut on the Nasdaq this year. This puts Rivian’s anticipated valuation at almost 1/10ththe size of industry leader Tesla’s (TSLA) recent market cap of more than $800 billion, double the size of industry peer Lucid’s (LCID) $40 billion market cap, and about 1/3rdmore than Ford’s $60 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，Rivian 刚刚开始商业化生产旗舰 R1T 电动皮卡，计划在感恩节前后进行价值高达 800 亿美元的 IPO。近年来，许多电动汽车（“EV”）初创公司选择通过与空白支票公司反向合并上市，以便为其资本密集型企业快速获得资金，而Rivian将采用传统方式上市，这对于一家营收前公司来说几乎是前所未有的。预计 800 亿美元的估值也将使Rivian的 IPO 成为今年纳斯达克上估值最高的首次公开募股。这使得Rivian的预期估值几乎是行业领导者特斯拉（TSLA）近期超过 8000 亿美元市值的 1/10，是行业同行 Lucid（LCID）400 亿美元市值的两倍，比福特 600 亿美元市值高出约 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> As one of the most vertically integrated EV makers to come after Tesla, with direct participation in vehicle design and battery development to building an exclusive network of charging infrastructure, investors have begun to draw comparisons between the two and ponder on whether Rivian has the potential to grow into something like the EV titan. For years, Tesla has dominated the global EV sector in terms of sales volume and valuation due to its first-mover advantage in pioneering the passenger EV industry, and building everything from its batteries to the Supercharging network from ground-up to support mass market adoption in the last decade. But the rising number of new entrants to the emerging industry in recent years, including Rivian which provides a similar comprehensive ecosystem to support its vehicles, may just be enough to put Tesla on notice.</p><p><blockquote>作为继特斯拉之后垂直一体化程度最高的电动汽车制造商之一，直接参与车辆设计和电池开发，构建独家充电基础设施网络，投资者开始对两者之间进行比较，并思考Rivian是否有潜力成长为电动汽车巨头。多年来，特斯拉凭借其在开拓乘用车电动汽车行业方面的先发优势，在销量和估值方面一直主导着全球电动汽车行业，并从头开始建设从电池到超级充电网络的一切，以支持过去十年的大众市场采用。但近年来新兴行业的新进入者数量不断增加，包括提供类似全面生态系统来支持其汽车的Rivian，可能足以引起特斯拉的注意。</blockquote></p><p> Although Rivian has built its consumer and commercial vehicle line-up with a very specific audience in mind, namely outdoor enthusiasts and last-mile delivery operators, it does have the operational capacity and regulatory green light to proceed with sales ahead of the most comparable Tesla Cybertrucks and Semis, which have been delayed to next year. Rivian also has better range capability than some of the other pickups and SUVs, two of the best-selling vehicle segments, slated to rollout starting next year which gives it a head-start in the increasingly competitive landscape.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Rivian在构建消费和商用车阵容时考虑到了非常特定的受众，即户外运动爱好者和最后一英里送货运营商，但它确实拥有运营能力和监管绿灯，可以先于最具可比性的特斯拉Cybertrucks和Semis进行销售，这已被推迟到明年。Rivian还拥有比其他一些皮卡和 SUV 更好的续航里程能力，这两个最畅销的汽车细分市场预计将于明年开始推出，这使其在竞争日益激烈的格局中处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rivian has already gotten its foot down on the most difficult part, which is getting its vehicles to the start of production. And with proven demand as evidenced by the 48,390 reservations recorded to date for the R1T and R1S models and a long-term contract for the last-mile delivery vans with Amazon, it does appear to be among “one of the most promising of a large pool of EV startups” in recent years to compete for market share against Tesla. But with a projected valuation of $80 billion right from the get-go, Rivian is left with very little wiggle room for error in the execution of its vehicles’ upcoming debut on roadways, production ramp, and long-term growth roadmap. On this basis, we are neutral on Rivian’s anticipated valuation ahead of its upcoming IPO.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian已经踏上了最困难的部分，那就是让其车辆开始生产。迄今为止，R1T 和 R1S 车型的预订量为 48,390 辆，以及与亚马逊签订的最后一英里送货车长期合同都证明了这一点，亚马逊似乎确实是近年来 “最有前途的大型电动汽车初创公司之一 ”与特斯拉争夺市场份额。但是，由于Rivian从一开始的预计估值就高达 800 亿美元，因此在执行其车辆即将上路的首次亮相、产量提升和长期增长路线图时，几乎没有出错的余地。在此基础上，我们对Rivian即将首次公开募股前的预期估值持中立态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian概览</b></blockquote></p><p> It took almost 12 years for Rivian, founded by RJ Scaringe, to debut its first customer-ready vehicle. Based in Irvine, California, Rivian has its mission to “keep the world adventurous forever” etched deeply into every one of its vehicles. The EV maker currently services both the consumer and commercial sector with a line-up that consists of the R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV, and EDV-series last-mile delivery vans.</p><p><blockquote>由 RJ Scaringe 创立的Rivian花了近 12 年时间才推出了第一款面向客户的汽车。总部位于加州尔湾市的Rivian将 “让世界永远充满冒险 ”的使命深深地烙印在其每一辆汽车上。这家电动汽车制造商目前为消费者和商业领域提供服务，产品阵容包括 R1T 皮卡、R1S SUV 和 EDV 系列最后一英里送货车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The R1-Series</b></p><p><blockquote><b>R1系列</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9241989beaf7d245c669a7e27d83480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Rivian.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Rivian.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The R1T and R1S are built on the R1-platform designed for the consumer segment. The R1 platform combines “performance, utility and efficiency” to enable a streamlined driving and passenger experience for all adventures. In terms of technology, the R1-series vehicles capture a comprehensive in-car infotainment system with built-in connectivity features to support cloud-enabled over-the-air (“OTA”) updates, paired with a proprietary battery pack designed to deliver range capability of up to 400 miles on a single charge. The vehicles also come standard with Driver+, Rivian’s advanced driver-assistance system (“ADAS”), with features including automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, highway assist and parking assist. So far, the comprehensive suite of in-vehicle technology vies closely to those offered by Tesla, as well as many of the other contenders within the EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>R1T 和 R1S 基于专为消费者领域设计的 R1 平台打造。R1 平台集 “性能、实用性和效率 ”于一身，为所有探险活动提供简化的驾驶和乘客体验。在技术方面，R1 系列车辆配备了全面的车载信息娱乐系统，具有内置连接功能，可支持云支持的无线 (“OTA”) 更新，并配有专有电池组，可提供一次充电可达 400 英里的续航里程。这些车辆还标配了Rivian的高级驾驶辅助系统（“ADAS”）Driver+，其功能包括自动紧急制动、车道保持辅助、高速公路辅助和停车辅助。到目前为止，全面的车载技术套件与特斯拉提供的技术以及电动汽车领域的许多其他竞争者竞争激烈。</blockquote></p><p> But what really differentiates Rivian is its commitment to curating an experience-driven lifestyle vehicle that suits the needs of every outdoor enthusiast, while also ensuring compatibility across different use cases and geographies to drive demand. The consumer-centric R1-series are equipped with a complementing suite of value-add accessories and services ranging from camp tents and kitchens to exclusive insurance plans tailored to provide coverage even for extreme adventures like off-roading. While pickup trucks have been historically associated with work rigs, Rivian’s R1T electric pickup proves that it can address the needs of diverse use cases with a battery system and propulsion that can sustain extreme road conditions, while offering ample storage and additional accessories to accommodate extended road-trips.</p><p><blockquote>但真正让Rivian与众不同的是，它致力于策划一款体验驱动的生活方式车，满足每一位户外爱好者的需求，同时确保不同用例和地理位置的兼容性，以推动需求。以消费者为中心的R1系列配备了一套补充的增值配件和服务，从露营帐篷和厨房到专为越野等极端冒险而量身定制的专属保险计划。虽然皮卡历来与工作设备联系在一起，但Rivian的 R1T 电动皮卡证明了它可以通过电池系统和推进系统满足各种使用场景的需求，能够承受极端路况，同时提供充足的存储空间和额外的配件，以适应长时间的公路旅行。</blockquote></p><p> The R1-Series vehicles, especially the R1T pickup, has a better mass market appeal than Tesla’s comparable, the Cybertruck, to some extent due to its diversified use case, which underscores a robust sales outlook for Rivian. Tesla’s proposed launch for the Cybertrucks have also again been proven to be overly optimistic given its extremely complex manufacturing process, which gives Rivian a head start in the competition for market share. The quirky steel-bodied electric pickup truck, which was originally slated for start of production and deliveries by 2021 year-end, has been quietly delayed until at least the end of 2022 per a recent update made to the vehicle’s online sales page. Nonetheless, both contenders have some serious competition coming up, including Ford’s F-150 Lightning and GMC’s electric Hummer which start customer deliveries next year. The F-150 Lightning and GMC electric Hummer’s ICE-counterparts have historically been the biggest sellers amongst the pickup truck segment, and both battery-powered pickups seem to be on track towards similar achievements, with Ford having recently doubled its annual production capacity for the F-150 Lightning to 80,000 units to address rising demand.</p><p><blockquote>R1 系列汽车，尤其是 R1T 皮卡，比特斯拉的同类产品 Cybertruck 更具大众市场吸引力，这在一定程度上是由于其多样化的使用场景，这凸显了Rivian强劲的销售前景。鉴于特斯拉提出的 Cybertrucks 制造工艺极其复杂，这使得Rivian在市场份额竞争中占据了领先地位，因此该公司提议推出的 Cybertrucks 也再次被证明是过于乐观的。根据该车在线销售页面最近的更新，这款古怪的钢制车身电动皮卡车原定于 2021 年底开始生产和交付，但已悄然推迟到至少 2022 年底。尽管如此，这两款竞争者都将面临激烈的竞争，包括福特的 F-150 Lightning 和 GMC 的电动悍马，它们将于明年开始向客户交付。F-150 Lightning 和 GMC 电动悍马的 ICE 同类产品历来都是皮卡领域最畅销的车型，而这两款电池驱动的皮卡似乎也有望取得类似的成就，福特最近将 F-150 Lightning 的年产能提高了一倍，达到 8 万辆，以满足不断增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The EDV-Series</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EDV系列</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e6b9f7f3154d596eafce2dc1491baa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Rivian Automotive, Inc. Form S-1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Rivian汽车公司 S-1 表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to consumer-oriented EVs, Rivian also services fleet-based mobility with its EDV-series electric last-mile delivery vans. The vans come in three models based on different storage capacities and range capability:</p><p><blockquote>除了面向消费者的电动汽车外，Rivian还通过其 EDV 系列电动最后一英里送货车为基于车队的移动提供服务。根据不同的存储容量和续航里程能力，货车有三种型号：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>EDV 500 – Slated for initial deliveries in December, the EDV 500 has range capability of up to 150 miles on a single charge with 500 cubic feet of storage.</li> <li>EDV 700 – Slated for initial deliveries in early 2022, the EDV 700 has range capability of up to 150 miles on a single charge with 660 cubic feet of storage.</li> <li>EDV 900 – The EDV 900 will launch after deliveries begin for the EDV 500 and EDV 700 vans. As the world’s first long-range electric work van, the EDV 900 boasts 840 cubic feet of storage capacity and is capable of traveling up to 120 miles on a single charge.</li> </ul> Built on the RCV platform, the EDV-series boasts a range of up to 150 miles on a single charge and are equipped with the same advanced technology as the R1-series, like Driver+. The EDV-series are also exclusively compatible with Rivian’s proprietary fleet management service tool, FleetOS. FleetOS is a cloud-based fleet management tool that offers a wide array of services ranging from fleet distribution and charging management, to fleet insurance and financing. The tool aims to minimize total costs of ownership for fleet operators, while ensuring a recurring revenue stream for Rivian over the course of the vehicles’ lifecycles.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>EDV 500 – EDV 500 计划于 12 月首次交付，单次充电可行驶 150 英里，存储空间为 500 立方英尺。</li><li>EDV 700 – EDV 700 计划于 2022 年初首次交付，单次充电续航里程可达 150 英里，存储空间为 660 立方英尺。</li><li>EDV 900–EDV 900将在EDV 500和EDV 700货车开始交付后推出。作为世界上第一款远程电动工作车，EDV 900 拥有 840 立方英尺的存储容量，一次充电可行驶 120 英里。</li></ul>EDV系列基于RCV平台打造，一次充电可行驶150英里，并配备了与R1系列相同的先进技术，如Driver+。EDV 系列还与Rivian专有的车队管理服务工具 FleetOS 独家兼容。FleetOS是一个基于云的车队管理工具，提供从车队分配和收费管理到车队保险和融资的广泛服务。该工具旨在最大限度地降低车队运营商的总拥有成本，同时确保Rivian在车辆生命周期内获得经常性收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> With accelerated e-commerce adoption during the pandemic and increasingly urgent carbon neutralization mandates, global demand for electric last-mile delivery vehicles is expected to advance at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of more than 13% over the next five years, which makes strong tailwinds for Rivian’s commercial business unit in the long-run. Paired with a long-term exclusive contract to provide 100,000 EDV-Series delivery vans to Amazon into 2030, Rivian benefits from higher financial visibility. Amazon currently has exclusive rights to Rivian's EDV-Series vehicles in the first four years following initial productions, and a right of first refusal in the two years thereafter. Amazon and Rivian’s collaboration will also serve as validation for other commercial customers in the long-run, which further bolsters the segment’s sales outlook. And similar to the narrative on Tesla’s Cybertruck, delays on the comparable Semi trucks also put Rivian ahead of the EV titan in penetrating the fast-growing last-mile delivery market.</p><p><blockquote>随着大流行病期间电子商务的加速普及和日益紧迫的碳中和任务，预计未来五年，全球对电动最后一英里送货车的需求将以超过 13% 的复合年增长率 (“CAGR”) 增长，从长远来看，这将为Rivian的商业业务部门带来强大的推动力。再加上到 2030 年向亚马逊提供 100,000 辆 EDV 系列送货车的长期独家合同，Rivian受益于更高的财务知名度。亚马逊目前拥有 Rivian EDV 系列车辆在初始生产后四年内的独家权利，并在此后两年内拥有优先购买权。从长远来看，亚马逊和Rivian的合作也将为其他商业客户提供验证，从而进一步提振该细分市场的销售前景。与特斯拉 Cybertruck 的情况类似，同类半挂卡车的延误也让Rivian在打入快速增长的最后一英里送货市场方面领先于电动汽车巨头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Direct Go-to-Market Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>直接进入市场战略</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to Tesla and many of its industry peers, Rivian adopts a direct sales go-to-market strategy that involves showroom-style “experience spaces” supported by an online sales platform. Rivian currently makes most of its sales online, and operates six service centers across California, Illinois, Washington and New York, along with a fleet of 11 on-demand mobile service vehicles and a 24/7 service support center in Michigan. Another 120 service centers and 1,000 mobile service vans are on the way, with planned rollouts through to 2023. Rivian’s vehicles will be displayed through four primary types of experience spaces:</p><p><blockquote>与特斯拉及其许多行业同行类似，Rivian采取的是直接销售进入市场的战略，即在在线销售平台的支持下，开设展厅式的 “体验空间 ”。Rivian目前的大部分销售都是在网上进行的，在加州、伊利诺伊州、华盛顿州和纽约州运营着六个服务中心，还有一支由11辆按需移动服务车辆组成的车队，以及一个位于密歇根州的24/7服务支持中心。另外 120 个服务中心和 1,000 辆移动服务车正在建设中，计划于 2023 年推出。Rivian的车辆将通过四种主要类型的体验空间进行展示：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Hubs: Permanent experience centers situated in high-density city neighborhoods. The first Rivian hub will open in Venice, California on October 17th.</li> <li>Seasonal Spaces: Temporary pop-up spaces aimed at introducing the Rivian brand to new communities</li> <li>Outposts: Outposts are typically located in adventure destinations, where Rivian vehicles can be rented by users to enable immediate exploration of the outdoors</li> <li>Preserves: Protected land that Rivian plans to help conserve and save. Rivian vehicles will be provided for community use in preserves.</li> </ul> In addition to the experience spaces, test drives can also bearranged online, where an exclusive Field Specialist will be allocated to guide the process.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>中心：位于高密度城市社区的永久性体验中心。第一个Rivian中心将于10月17日在加州威尼斯开业。</li><li>季节性空间：旨在向新社区介绍Rivian品牌的临时弹出式空间</li><li>前哨：前哨通常位于探险目的地，用户可以在那里租用Rivian汽车，以便立即探索户外</li><li>保护区：Rivian计划帮助保护和拯救的受保护土地。Rivian车辆将提供给保护区的社区使用。</li></ul>除了体验空间之外，还可以在线安排试驾，届时将指派一名专属的领域专家来指导整个过程。</blockquote></p><p> Like many recent EV startups, migrating away from traditional dealership sales will allow Rivian to further enhance brand awareness through a refined and relaxed environment. With showrooms located in city neighborhoods and experience-oriented spaces, Rivian hopes to alleviate the pressure to purchase that customers typically experience in sales-centric dealerships and instead provide a refined and information space for them to learn about the brand and engage with the technology that it has to offer. And from a cost perspective, the direct sales strategy through experience spaces combined with a supporting online sales platform will help Rivian reduce inventory financial costs. It will also enable buyers with the option to customize vehicle purchases to their own liking, and provide a completely customer-centric experience as promised. The realized cost efficiencies will also allow greater capital deployment towards other areas of growing the business, such as enhancing customer experience, and ultimately creating incremental value for its shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>与许多最近的电动汽车初创公司一样，摆脱传统的经销商销售将使Rivian能够通过精致和轻松的环境进一步提高品牌知名度。Rivian希望通过位于城市社区和以体验为导向的空间的陈列室来减轻客户通常在以销售为中心的经销商中经历的购买压力，而是为他们提供一个精致的信息空间来了解品牌并参与其提供的技术。从成本角度来看，通过体验空间结合配套的在线销售平台的直销策略将有助于Rivian降低库存财务成本。它还将使买家能够根据自己的喜好定制车辆购买，并像承诺的那样提供完全以客户为中心的体验。实现的成本效率还将允许将更多的资本部署到业务增长的其他领域，例如增强客户体验，并最终为股东创造增量价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rivian’s R1-Series vehicles will first be made available in North America, with further expansion to Western Europe starting in 2023. Although Rivian’s foreseeable markets lackluster compared to Tesla’s presence across 40 countries on the map, it has been strategically planned to maximize value and support the company’s long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的 R1 系列汽车将首先在北美上市，并于 2023 年开始进一步扩展到西欧。虽然与特斯拉在地图上 40 个国家的业务相比，Rivian可预见的市场黯然失色，但它已经制定了战略规划，以实现价值最大化并支持公司的长期发展。</blockquote></p><p> With the Biden Administration’s recent pledge to reduce greenhouse gas pollution by at least 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030, the U.S. has seen a heightened urgency towards electrifying the transportation sector. Multiple infrastructure bills that are currently under review have been set to include funding for building out the U.S. EV economy. President Biden has also recently made it a national goal to have half of new car sales be emissions-free by 2030. The continued rollout of favorable policy support from the government are expected to stimulate the American EV economy, and propel domestic EV demand growth at a CAGR of 30% through to the end of the decade. This makes strong tailwinds for Rivian, which is expected to have its vehicles become a key part of the estimated 14 million EVs on American roads by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府最近承诺到 2030 年将温室气体污染在 2005 年的基础上减少至少 50% 至 52%，这使得美国交通部门电气化的紧迫性日益增强。目前正在审查的多项基础设施法案将包括为建设美国电动汽车经济提供资金。拜登总统最近还将到 2030 年使一半的新车销售实现零排放作为国家目标。政府持续推出有利的政策支持预计将刺激美国电动汽车经济，并推动国内电动汽车需求在本十年末以30%的复合年增长率增长。这为Rivian带来了强劲的推动力，预计到 2030 年，该公司的汽车将成为美国道路上估计 1400 万辆电动汽车的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s further expansion into Western Europe beginning 2023 is also a strategic move that is expected to pay large dividends in the long-run. Europe is currently the world’s second-largest EV market, running closely behind China and accounting for 42% of global EV sales in 2020. The region’s EV adoption rate has continued to soar in the first half of 2021, with almost 20% of new passenger vehicle sales being battery-powered. Much of this progress is by courtesy of Europe’s stringent regulatory landscape over greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has recently tightened its climate change policy by raising its emissions reduction target to at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels through the “Fit for 55” legislation package. The pact has also committed to having all new vehicle sales be emissions-free by 2035 to encourage greater EV adoption across the broader European markets, including France and Germany, in coming years. With Tesla only accounting for 7% of Europe’s EV market share, and SUVs continuing to dominate the region’s new car sales, Rivian is well-positioned for high-growth opportunities ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian从 2023 年初进一步向西欧扩张也是一项战略举措，从长远来看，预计将带来巨大的红利。欧洲目前是全球第二大电动汽车市场，仅次于中国，2020 年占全球电动汽车销量的 42%。2021 年上半年，该地区的电动汽车普及率继续飙升，近 20% 的新乘用车销量是电池驱动的。这一进展在很大程度上要归功于欧洲对温室气体排放的严格监管环境。欧盟最近收紧了气候变化政策，通过 “适合 55 人 ”一揽子立法，将到 2030 年的减排目标提高到比 1990 年水平至少减少 55%。该协议还承诺到 2035 年使所有新车销售实现零排放，以鼓励未来几年在包括法国和德国在内的更广泛的欧洲市场更多地采用电动汽车。特斯拉仅占欧洲电动汽车市场份额的 7%，而 SUV 继续主导该地区的新车销售，因此Rivian在未来的高增长机遇方面处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Highly Vertically Integrated Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高度垂直整合的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian is also one of the most vertically integrated EV start-ups in recent years. Not only does it design and manufacture its vehicles and related technology in-house, Rivian also operates an exclusive network of charging infrastructure like Tesla does. The EV maker also provides a wide variety of post-sales turnkey solutions to secure recurring revenues, underpinning sustainable long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian也是近年来垂直整合程度最高的电动汽车初创企业之一。Rivian不仅在内部设计和制造车辆及相关技术，还像特斯拉一样运营着独家充电基础设施网络。这家电动汽车制造商还提供各种售后交钥匙解决方案，以确保经常性收入，支撑可持续的长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In-House Production Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部生产策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian currently performs its own in-house R&D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, in-car infotainment and connectivity system, integrated safety, chassis and Driver+ ADAS system. Productions for the R1-Series and EDV-Series are also currently in process at its Normal, Illinois plant, which was purchased from Mitsubishi in 2017. The Normal plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 units, with further expansion to 200,000 units by 2023 at full production ramp.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前对其车辆的几乎每个方面都进行了自己的内部研发，包括动力系统、电池技术、车载信息娱乐和连接系统、集成安全、底盘和驾驶员+ ADAS系统。R1 系列和 EDV 系列的生产目前也在其位于伊利诺伊州的 Normal 工厂进行，该工厂于 2017 年从三菱购买。正常工厂目前的年产能为 150,000 台，到 2023 年满负荷生产时将进一步扩大至 200,000 台。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker has begun its hunt for a second assembly plant in the U.S. since July, with speculations of a finalized investment in a factory located near Fort Worth, Texas. The new facility is expected to have an annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. If Rivian confirms its investment in the Texas plant, it is slated to benefit from tax incentives valued at up to $440 million, which offsets some of the significant investment costs. Many California-based companies, including Tesla, have set up offices and manufacturing facilities in Texas in recent years to take advantage of the state’s lower tax rate, as well as affordable costs of living, while pressing forward with expansion plans. The Texas plant would cost Rivian about $5 billion. Much of the capital investment commitment would be deployed towards real property improvements and other construction costs required to bring the plant online by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>自 7 月以来，这家电动汽车制造商已开始在美国寻找第二家装配厂，并有猜测称已敲定对位于德克萨斯州沃思堡附近的一家工厂的投资。新工厂预计年产能为20万辆汽车。如果Rivian确认对德克萨斯工厂的投资，预计将受益于价值高达 4.4 亿美元的税收优惠，这将抵消部分重大投资成本。近年来，包括特斯拉在内的许多加州公司都在得克萨斯州设立了办事处和制造工厂，以利用该州较低的税率和可负担的生活成本，同时推进扩张计划。德克萨斯工厂将花费Rivian约 50 亿美元。大部分资本投资承诺将用于房地产改善和其他建设成本，以在 2024 年之前使工厂上线。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Rivian is also looking for a location to house its productions in Europe starting in 2023. While no site has been confirmed yet, the U.K., Germany and Hungary are amongst the key locations being considered. The materialization of Rivian’s production expansion plans across North America and Europe will strengthen its efficiency in scaling productions, while further bolstering its market penetration capabilities against Tesla and other industry peers, as global EV adoption takes off with heightened demand in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Rivian也在寻找从 2023 年开始在欧洲生产的地点。虽然还没有确定地点，但英国、德国和匈牙利是正在考虑的主要地点之一。随着未来几年全球电动汽车的普及和需求的增加，Rivian在北美和欧洲的生产扩张计划得以实现，将提高其扩大生产规模的效率，同时进一步增强其相对于特斯拉和其他行业同行的市场渗透能力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Turnkey Post-Sales Solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交钥匙售后解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition to the design and development of its vehicles and batteries, Rivian also makes its own exclusive suite of after-sales services. These include FleetOS, Driver+, Rivian Financial Services and Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance, which are all powered by Rivian Cloud:</p><p><blockquote>除了设计和开发车辆和电池外，Rivian还提供自己的专属售后服务套件。其中包括 FleetOS、Driver+、Rivian金融服务和基于Rivian远程信息处理的保险，所有这些都由Rivian云提供支持：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian Cloud: Facilitated by AWS, Amazon’s cloud business, Rivian Cloud enables remote diagnostics, remote vehicle controls and OTA software updates. It also stores and analyzes data to enable Rivian’s suite of after-sales services and solutions, including FleetOS, Driver+, Rivian Financial Services, and Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance.</li> <li>FleetOS: FleetOS is a fleet management tool that accompanies its commercial segment vehicles, starting with the EDV-Series. Using data collected and analyzed by Rivian Cloud, FleetOS is capable of managing vehicle distributions, telematics, software services and solutions, charging cycles, driver safety and training, vehicle security, remote diagnostics, 360+ collision reports, and other connectivity solutions.</li> <li>Driver+: The level 2 ADAS that comes standard in every Rivian vehicle. Driver+ is compatible with in-vehicle connectivity to support OTA deployment of level 3 autonomy in the future when the technology becomes available. Driver+ works with a suite of cameras, ultrasonic sensors, radars and a high-precision GPS antenna to enable ADAS features including automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, highway assist, and parking assistance. Driver+ for EDV-Series vehicles also includes an overhead clearance warning feature. Meanwhile, Tesla continues to press forward with its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving developments, which will likely be incorporated into level 4/5 fully autonomous robotaxis in the future and plays a critical role in Tesla’s elevated valuation at the moment. This pretty much puts Rivian in the backseat when pitted against Tesla’s valuation prospects.</li> <li>Rivian Financial Services: Rivian offers exclusive financing options for its buyers through Rivian Financial Services. The lending program is jointly operated with Chase Bank. Rivian Financial Services enables Rivian to offer its buyers with personalized financing options, while securing recurring revenues from commission fees earned for the conversion of customers on the Rivian Financial Services platform.</li> <li>Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance: Rivian’s in-house telematics-based insurance uses user data collected from vehicles to tailor the quality of coverage and lower after-sales costs for buyers. Rivian is not the first to launch this kind of insurance offering. With the advent of cloud-based technology enabling real-time analytics on data collected from in-vehicle sensory infrastructure, others including Tesla,GM and Ford have launched similar telematics-based auto insurance programs. Considering better quality of coverage and cost efficiencies offered by telematics-based insurance from both the underwriters’ and consumers’ point of view, the eventual elimination of traditional auto insurance is imminent. By offering in-house telematics-based insurance coverage, Rivian puts itself in a competitive position against industry peers, while also attracting sales by lowering total costs of ownership. Rivian currently offers telematics-based insurance coverage on its vehicles in 48 states, while Tesla only offers similar in California and Texas.</li> </ul> Based on an average useful life of 10 years, Rivian expects each consumer and commercial vehicle sold to generate additional lifetime revenues of $67,900 and $64,600, respectively, through the provision of the above after-sales services.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian云： 在亚马逊云业务 AWS 的推动下，Rivian云支持远程诊断、远程车辆控制和 OTA 软件更新。它还存储和分析数据，以支持Rivian的售后服务和解决方案套件，包括 FleetOS、Driver+、Rivian金融服务和基于Rivian远程信息处理的保险。</li><li>FleetOS：FleetOS 是一款车队管理工具，伴随其商用车辆，从 EDV 系列开始。使用Rivian云收集和分析的数据，FleetOS能够管理车辆分配、远程信息处理、软件服务和解决方案、充电周期、驾驶员安全和培训、车辆安全、远程诊断、360+碰撞报告和其他连接解决方案。</li><li>Driver+：每辆Rivian汽车标配的2级ADAS。Driver+与车载连接兼容，以支持未来该技术可用时3级自动驾驶的OTA部署。Driver+ 与一套摄像头、超声波传感器、雷达和高精度 GPS 天线配合使用，以实现 ADAS 功能，包括自动紧急制动、车道保持辅助、高速公路辅助和停车辅助。适用于 EDV 系列车辆的 Driver+ 还包括头顶间隙警告功能。与此同时，特斯拉继续推进其自动驾驶仪和全自动驾驶的研发，这很可能在未来被纳入 4/5 级全自动机器人出租车中，并在特斯拉目前的估值提升中发挥着关键作用。与特斯拉的估值前景相比，这几乎让Rivian处于次要地位。</li><li>Rivian金融服务：Rivian通过Rivian金融服务为其买家提供独家融资选择。该贷款计划由大通银行联合运营。Rivian金融服务使Rivian能够为其买家提供个性化的融资选择，同时从Rivian金融服务平台上客户转化所赚取的佣金中获得经常性收入。</li><li>Rivian基于远程信息处理的保险： Rivian内部基于远程信息处理的保险利用从车辆中收集的用户数据来定制保险质量，并为买家降低售后成本。Rivian并不是第一个推出此类保险产品的公司。随着基于云的技术的出现，能够对从车载传感基础设施收集的数据进行实时分析，特斯拉、通用汽车和福特等其他公司也推出了类似的基于远程信息处理的汽车保险计划。从保险公司和消费者的角度来看，基于远程信息处理的保险提供了更好的承保质量和成本效益，传统汽车保险的最终淘汰迫在眉睫。通过提供基于内部远程信息处理的保险范围，Rivian将自己置于与行业同行相比的竞争地位，同时还通过降低总拥有成本来吸引销售。Rivian目前在48个州为其车辆提供基于远程信息处理的保险，而特斯拉仅在加州和德克萨斯州提供类似的保险。</li></ul>基于 10 年的平均使用寿命，Rivian预计通过提供上述售后服务，售出的每辆消费和商用车将分别产生 67,900 美元和 64,600 美元的额外终身收入。</blockquote></p><p> Based on an average useful life of 10 years, Rivian expects each consumer and commercial vehicle sold to generate additional lifetime revenues of $67,900 and $64,600, respectively, through the provision of the above after-sales services.</p><p><blockquote>基于 10 年的平均使用寿命，Rivian预计通过提供上述售后服务，售出的每辆消费和商用车将分别产生 67,900 美元和 64,600 美元的额外终身收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exclusive Charging Network</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专属充电网络</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla was the first EV maker to set up its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure. Although an incredibly expensive endeavor to take on, it was really the EV titan’s only option to encourage mass market adoption of its vehicles during the early stages when public charging was rare. To date, only Chinese EV maker NIO and Rivian have engaged in similar investments, while the majority of EV startups and legacy automakers have instead relied on exclusive partnerships with public charging infrastructure providers to avoid additional capital deployment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是第一家建立自己的专属充电基础设施网络的电动汽车制造商。虽然这是一项非常昂贵的努力，但在公共充电很少见的早期阶段，这确实是这家电动汽车巨头鼓励大众市场采用其汽车的唯一选择。迄今为止，只有中国电动汽车制造商蔚来和Rivian进行了类似的投资，而大多数电动汽车初创公司和传统汽车制造商则依靠与公共充电基础设施提供商的独家合作伙伴关系来避免额外的资本部署。</blockquote></p><p> The main reason for Rivian’s investment into building out its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure is really to close the loop on its comprehensive suite of complementary offerings and set its customers free from range anxiety, even when they are travelling further out in secluded areas. Rivian currently offers the following charging solutions:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian投资建设自己的专属充电基础设施网络的主要原因，实际上是为了完成其全面的配套产品的闭环，让客户摆脱里程焦虑，即使他们在偏远地区出行。Rivian目前提供以下充电解决方案：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian Adventure Network (“RAN”): RAN will eventually be composed of a network of more than 3,500 Rivian-designed direct current (“DC”) fast chargers located across 600 sites by 2023. The network of fast chargers are designed to charge up to 140 miles within 20 minutes, and will be strategically located in more remote “adventure destinations”, in addition to major highways.</li> <li>Rivian Waypoints: Rivian’s proprietary network of level 2 chargers installed at partner destinations, such as hotels, offices, restaurants and parks, across the U.S. and Canada. Rivian Waypoint chargers can charge up to 25 miles per hour.</li> <li>Fleet Charging: Commercial customers have the option of installing Rivian’s proprietary charging depot hardware at onsite. Fleet Charging enables commercial customers to manage fleet charging seamlessly and centrally with FleetOS.</li> </ul> <b>Is the $80 Billion Valuation Viable?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian探险网络（“RAN”）： 到 2023 年，RAN 最终将由 3500 多个Rivian设计的直流（“DC”）快速充电器组成，分布在 600 个站点。快速充电器网络的设计目的是在 20 分钟内充电 140 英里，除了主要高速公路外，还将战略性地设置在更偏远的 “探险目的地 ”。</li><li>Rivian航点： Rivian专有的 2 级充电器网络安装在美国和加拿大的酒店、办公室、餐厅和公园等合作伙伴目的地。Rivian航路点充电器每小时可充电25英里。</li><li>车队充电： 商业客户可以选择在现场安装Rivian专有的充电站硬件。车队充电使商业客户能够使用FleetOS无缝集中管理车队充电。</li></ul><b>800亿美元的估值可行吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> While Rivian is amongst one of the most promising EV startups in recent years, a potential $80 billion valuation at its upcoming IPO would put it in the ranks of established legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Stellantis(NYSE:STLA)and Honda(NYSE:HMC)by market cap. It would also make it almost 1/10ththe value in which Tesla is currently being traded at, despite not having generated any meaningful revenues yet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian是近年来最有前途的电动汽车初创公司之一，但其即将进行的 IPO 估值可能达到 800 亿美元，这将使其跻身通用汽车、福特、Stellantis（纽约证券交易所股票代码：STLA）和本田（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HMC）等老牌传统汽车制造商的行列市值。这也将使其几乎是特斯拉目前交易价格的1/10，尽管尚未产生任何有意义的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Rivian’s latest S-1 filing, the company has not generated any revenues so far. Commercial productions have only started last month, with deliveries to begin any day now. This puts Rivian in a similar position as Lucid, another highly valued pre-revenue EV startup that went public in July. With a start of production and delivery timeline similar to Rivian’s, Lucid currently trades at about 3x its estimated revenues for 2025 with a market cap of $41 billion. Using the metric as a proxy on Rivian’s anticipated $80 billion valuation, the EV maker would need to generate revenues of $27.3 billion by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据Rivian最新的 S-1 文件，该公司迄今为止尚未产生任何收入。商业制作上个月才开始，现在随时可以开始交付。这使得Rivian处于与 Lucid 类似的境地，Lucid 是另一家高估值的营收前电动汽车初创公司，于 7 月上市。Lucid 的生产和交付时间表与Rivian相似，目前的交易价格约为其 2025 年预计收入的 3 倍，市值为 410 亿美元。以这一指标作为Rivian预计 800 亿美元估值的指标，这家电动汽车制造商到 2025 年需要创造 273 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Our preliminary back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that Rivian would have to sell approximately 350,000 vehicles by 2025 to justify an $80 billion valuation based on comparable industry multiples (i.e. $27.3 billion revenue / $78,000 ASP):</p><p><blockquote>我们的初步后端计算显示，到 2025 年，Rivian必须销售约 350,000 辆汽车，才能根据可比行业倍数（即 273 亿美元收入 / 78,000 美元平均售价）证明 800 亿美元的估值是合理的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian is estimated to sell its vehicles at an average selling price (“ASP”) of about $78,000.</li> </ul> <ul> <ul> <li>The R1T starts at $67,500 with an adventure option priced at $73,000. Pricing on the R1T can go as high as $103,965 with fully loaded options. This generates an estimated ASP of $81,488.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the R1S starts at $70,000 with an adventure option priced at $75,500. Pricing on the R1S can go as high as $98,765 with fully loaded options, including the foldable tent and camp kitchen accessories which are currently unavailable for the SUV, but will be eventually. This generates an estimated ASP of $81,422.</li> <li>Pricing on the EDV-Series is currently undisclosed, but the industry average is about $50,000 with the most expensive Bollinger Deliver-E expected to be priced at $75,000 and the least expensive Canoo MPDV expected to be priced at $33,000.</li> <li>The average of consumer and commercial vehicle lifetime revenues are approximately $66,300 over 10 years. This makes average other revenues of about $6,630 per vehicle per year.</li> <li>Taking the three separate vehicle ASPs together, Rivian’s consolidated vehicle ASP is forecasted at about $71,000. Adding average incremental revenues of $6,630 per vehicle on top, Rivian’s ASP is projected at about $78,000.</li> </ul> <li>In terms of production capacity, Rivian’s Normal plant can currently produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. By 2023, the plant is expected to reach production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year. An additional Europe plant is expected to come online by 2023 to support Rivian’s overseas expansion plans, and a second U.S. plant is expected to come online by 2024. Assuming both additional plants can produce 150,000 vehicles each on an annual basis, total production capacity would reach 500,000 vehicles by 2025. On this basis, Rivian is expected to have sufficient production capacity to meet the revenue threshold required to support its potential $80 billion valuation.</li> <li>In terms of actual demand, global passenger EV sales are expected to exceed 12.2 million units by 2025.28% of related sales are expected to come from Europe,10% from the U.S. and about 15% from Canada. Hence, by geography, Rivian has a total addressable market of about 6.5 million units. With SUVs and pickup trucks accounting for about 70% of annual new car sales, this further narrows Rivian’s total addressable market down to about 4.5 million vehicles by 2025. Selling 350,000 vehicles by 2025 would yield an 8% share of Rivian’s TAM of 4.5 million units. This makes a tough market share figure to compete for against reputable pickup truck and SUV brands like Ford, GM and Toyota(NYSE:TM), which are all undergoing an aggressive transition to electric.</li> <li>Rivian_-_Supporting_Calculations.pdf</li> </ul> While it is not entirely out of the question for Rivian to achieve our projected sales target by 2025, it will be a tough one. The EV maker has almost no room for error in the execution of its long-term growth roadmap in order to justify the $80 billion valuation. With Rivian having recently been a victim of the ongoing chip supply shortages, which had caused delays to the start of production of the R1T and R1S, similar woes are expected to recur as auto chip makers continue to warn of extended lead times that will not be going away anytime soon. Based on these considerations, we are neutral on Rivian’s anticipated valuation ahead of its upcoming IPO.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>据估计，Rivian的平均售价（“ASP”）约为 78,000 美元。</li></ul><ul><ul><li>R1T 起价为 67,500 美元，冒险选项售价为 73,000 美元。如果选装齐全，R1T 的定价可高达 103,965 美元。这产生了81,488美元的估计平均售价。</li><li>与此同时，R1S 起价为 70,000 美元，冒险选装件售价为 75,500 美元。R1S 的售价可高达 98,765 美元，配备满载选项，包括可折叠帐篷和露营厨房配件，这些配件目前 SUV 还没有，但最终将会提供。这产生了81,422美元的估计平均售价。</li><li>EDV系列的定价目前尚未披露，但行业平均价格约为50,000美元，其中最贵的Bollinger Deliver-E预计定价为75,000美元，最便宜的Canoo MPDV预计定价为33,000美元。</li><li>10 年内，消费者和商用车的平均收入约为 66,300 美元。这使得每辆车每年的平均其他收入约为 6,630 美元。</li><li>将三个单独的汽车平均售价加在一起，Rivian的汽车综合平均售价预计约为 7.1 万美元。再加上每辆车 6,630 美元的平均增量收入，Rivian的平均售价预计约为 78,000 美元。</li></ul><li>就产能而言，Rivian的正常工厂目前每年最多可生产 15 万辆汽车。到2023年，该工厂预计将达到每年20万辆汽车的产能。另一家欧洲工厂预计将于 2023 年投产，以支持Rivian的海外扩张计划，第二家美国工厂预计将于 2024 年投产。假设两家新增工厂每年可生产 150,000 辆汽车，到 2025 年，总产能将达到 500,000 辆。在此基础上，Rivian有望拥有足够的产能来满足支撑其潜在800亿美元估值所需的收入门槛。</li><li>从实际需求来看，到2025年，全球乘用车电动汽车销量预计将超过1220万辆。28%的相关销量预计来自欧洲，10%来自美国，约15%来自加拿大。因此，从地理位置来看，Rivian的潜在市场总量约为650万台。SUV 和皮卡约占每年新车销量的 70%，到 2025 年，Rivian的潜在市场总量将进一步缩小到约 450 万辆。到 2025 年售出 35 万辆汽车，将在Rivian 450 万辆 TAM 中获得 8% 的份额。这使得与福特、通用汽车和丰田（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TM）等知名皮卡和 SUV 品牌竞争成为一个艰难的市场份额数字，这些品牌都在积极向电动汽车转型。</li><li>Rivian_-_支持计算.pdf</li></ul>虽然Rivian到 2025 年实现我们的预计销售目标并非完全不可能，但这将是一项艰巨的任务。这家电动汽车制造商在执行其长期增长路线图时几乎没有出错的余地，以证明 800 亿美元的估值是合理的。Rivian最近成为持续芯片供应短缺的受害者，导致 R1T 和 R1S 的投产延迟，随着汽车芯片制造商继续警告交货时间延长，预计类似的灾难还会再次发生，而且不会很快消失。基于这些考虑，我们对Rivian即将首次公开募股前的预期估值持中立态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a highly vertically integrated business model and robust demand from its niche market, Rivian still has much to prove for its potential $80 billion valuation, let alone competing against the valuation prospects of Tesla. On the considerations of our foregoing analysis, our stance remains neutral on Rivian’s $80 billion valuation ahead of its IPO next month.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Rivian拥有高度垂直整合的商业模式和利基市场的强劲需求，但其800亿美元的潜在估值仍有很多需要证明的地方，更不用说与特斯拉的估值前景竞争了。基于上述分析的考虑，我们对Rivian下个月首次公开募股前 800 亿美元的估值保持中立。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460856-how-well-can-rivian-compete-with-tesla\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460856-how-well-can-rivian-compete-with-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161425329","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian, an EV start-up backed by Amazon and Ford, has been the talk-of-the-town in recent weeks after its announcement of a potential $80-billion IPO next month.\nAfter 12 years of R&D, Rivian's flagship R1T electric pickup truck finally began commercial productions last month, with the first customer deliveries happening any day now.\nRivian is one of the most vertically integrated EV makers in recent years and even has its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure similar to Tesla's Superchargers.\nSimilarities in both EV makers' business models have drawn comparisons between the two, with some even pondering if Rivian has a chance to challenge Tesla's valuation.\nBut with a limited product line made for a market niche, and a limited global footprint, Rivian still has much to prove for its potential $80-bilion valuation, let alone challenging Tesla's elevated valuation prospects. As such, our stance remains neutral on Rivian ahead of its upcoming IPO.\n\nPhillip Faraone/Getty Images Entertainment\nRivian (pre-IPO:RIVN) is one of the most promising EV startups in recent years, backed by high-profile investors including Ford (F) and Amazon (AMZN). With a focus on making lifestyle vehicles suited to bring users closer to nature and enable greater outdoor exploration, Rivian debuted the R1T electric pickup truck and R1S electricSUVfor the consumer segment about three years ago, with plans to begin customer deliveries before the end of this year. In addition to consumer segment vehicles, Rivian is also known for their arrangement with Amazon to deliver 100,000 last-mile delivery electric vans before 2030.\nHaving just began commercial productions of the flagship R1T electric pickup truck about a month ago,Rivian is slated for an IPO valued at up to $80 billion sometime around Thanksgiving. While many electric vehicle (“EV”) startups have chosen to go public in recent years through reverse mergers with blank-cheque companies for quick access to funding for their capital-intensive ventures, Rivian will be doing it the traditional way, which is almost unprecedented for a pre-revenue company. The projected $80 billion valuation would also make Rivian’s IPO the highest valued debut on the Nasdaq this year. This puts Rivian’s anticipated valuation at almost 1/10ththe size of industry leader Tesla’s (TSLA) recent market cap of more than $800 billion, double the size of industry peer Lucid’s (LCID) $40 billion market cap, and about 1/3rdmore than Ford’s $60 billion market cap.\nAs one of the most vertically integrated EV makers to come after Tesla, with direct participation in vehicle design and battery development to building an exclusive network of charging infrastructure, investors have begun to draw comparisons between the two and ponder on whether Rivian has the potential to grow into something like the EV titan. For years, Tesla has dominated the global EV sector in terms of sales volume and valuation due to its first-mover advantage in pioneering the passenger EV industry, and building everything from its batteries to the Supercharging network from ground-up to support mass market adoption in the last decade. But the rising number of new entrants to the emerging industry in recent years, including Rivian which provides a similar comprehensive ecosystem to support its vehicles, may just be enough to put Tesla on notice.\nAlthough Rivian has built its consumer and commercial vehicle line-up with a very specific audience in mind, namely outdoor enthusiasts and last-mile delivery operators, it does have the operational capacity and regulatory green light to proceed with sales ahead of the most comparable Tesla Cybertrucks and Semis, which have been delayed to next year. Rivian also has better range capability than some of the other pickups and SUVs, two of the best-selling vehicle segments, slated to rollout starting next year which gives it a head-start in the increasingly competitive landscape.\nRivian has already gotten its foot down on the most difficult part, which is getting its vehicles to the start of production. And with proven demand as evidenced by the 48,390 reservations recorded to date for the R1T and R1S models and a long-term contract for the last-mile delivery vans with Amazon, it does appear to be among “one of the most promising of a large pool of EV startups” in recent years to compete for market share against Tesla. But with a projected valuation of $80 billion right from the get-go, Rivian is left with very little wiggle room for error in the execution of its vehicles’ upcoming debut on roadways, production ramp, and long-term growth roadmap. On this basis, we are neutral on Rivian’s anticipated valuation ahead of its upcoming IPO.\nRivian Overview\nIt took almost 12 years for Rivian, founded by RJ Scaringe, to debut its first customer-ready vehicle. Based in Irvine, California, Rivian has its mission to “keep the world adventurous forever” etched deeply into every one of its vehicles. The EV maker currently services both the consumer and commercial sector with a line-up that consists of the R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV, and EDV-series last-mile delivery vans.\nThe R1-Series\nSource: Rivian.com\nThe R1T and R1S are built on the R1-platform designed for the consumer segment. The R1 platform combines “performance, utility and efficiency” to enable a streamlined driving and passenger experience for all adventures. In terms of technology, the R1-series vehicles capture a comprehensive in-car infotainment system with built-in connectivity features to support cloud-enabled over-the-air (“OTA”) updates, paired with a proprietary battery pack designed to deliver range capability of up to 400 miles on a single charge. The vehicles also come standard with Driver+, Rivian’s advanced driver-assistance system (“ADAS”), with features including automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, highway assist and parking assist. So far, the comprehensive suite of in-vehicle technology vies closely to those offered by Tesla, as well as many of the other contenders within the EV sector.\nBut what really differentiates Rivian is its commitment to curating an experience-driven lifestyle vehicle that suits the needs of every outdoor enthusiast, while also ensuring compatibility across different use cases and geographies to drive demand. The consumer-centric R1-series are equipped with a complementing suite of value-add accessories and services ranging from camp tents and kitchens to exclusive insurance plans tailored to provide coverage even for extreme adventures like off-roading. While pickup trucks have been historically associated with work rigs, Rivian’s R1T electric pickup proves that it can address the needs of diverse use cases with a battery system and propulsion that can sustain extreme road conditions, while offering ample storage and additional accessories to accommodate extended road-trips.\nThe R1-Series vehicles, especially the R1T pickup, has a better mass market appeal than Tesla’s comparable, the Cybertruck, to some extent due to its diversified use case, which underscores a robust sales outlook for Rivian. Tesla’s proposed launch for the Cybertrucks have also again been proven to be overly optimistic given its extremely complex manufacturing process, which gives Rivian a head start in the competition for market share. The quirky steel-bodied electric pickup truck, which was originally slated for start of production and deliveries by 2021 year-end, has been quietly delayed until at least the end of 2022 per a recent update made to the vehicle’s online sales page. Nonetheless, both contenders have some serious competition coming up, including Ford’s F-150 Lightning and GMC’s electric Hummer which start customer deliveries next year. The F-150 Lightning and GMC electric Hummer’s ICE-counterparts have historically been the biggest sellers amongst the pickup truck segment, and both battery-powered pickups seem to be on track towards similar achievements, with Ford having recently doubled its annual production capacity for the F-150 Lightning to 80,000 units to address rising demand.\nThe EDV-Series\nSource: Rivian Automotive, Inc. Form S-1\nIn addition to consumer-oriented EVs, Rivian also services fleet-based mobility with its EDV-series electric last-mile delivery vans. The vans come in three models based on different storage capacities and range capability:\n\nEDV 500 – Slated for initial deliveries in December, the EDV 500 has range capability of up to 150 miles on a single charge with 500 cubic feet of storage.\nEDV 700 – Slated for initial deliveries in early 2022, the EDV 700 has range capability of up to 150 miles on a single charge with 660 cubic feet of storage.\nEDV 900 – The EDV 900 will launch after deliveries begin for the EDV 500 and EDV 700 vans. As the world’s first long-range electric work van, the EDV 900 boasts 840 cubic feet of storage capacity and is capable of traveling up to 120 miles on a single charge.\n\nBuilt on the RCV platform, the EDV-series boasts a range of up to 150 miles on a single charge and are equipped with the same advanced technology as the R1-series, like Driver+. The EDV-series are also exclusively compatible with Rivian’s proprietary fleet management service tool, FleetOS. FleetOS is a cloud-based fleet management tool that offers a wide array of services ranging from fleet distribution and charging management, to fleet insurance and financing. The tool aims to minimize total costs of ownership for fleet operators, while ensuring a recurring revenue stream for Rivian over the course of the vehicles’ lifecycles.\nWith accelerated e-commerce adoption during the pandemic and increasingly urgent carbon neutralization mandates, global demand for electric last-mile delivery vehicles is expected to advance at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of more than 13% over the next five years, which makes strong tailwinds for Rivian’s commercial business unit in the long-run. Paired with a long-term exclusive contract to provide 100,000 EDV-Series delivery vans to Amazon into 2030, Rivian benefits from higher financial visibility. Amazon currently has exclusive rights to Rivian's EDV-Series vehicles in the first four years following initial productions, and a right of first refusal in the two years thereafter. Amazon and Rivian’s collaboration will also serve as validation for other commercial customers in the long-run, which further bolsters the segment’s sales outlook. And similar to the narrative on Tesla’s Cybertruck, delays on the comparable Semi trucks also put Rivian ahead of the EV titan in penetrating the fast-growing last-mile delivery market.\nDirect Go-to-Market Strategy\nSimilar to Tesla and many of its industry peers, Rivian adopts a direct sales go-to-market strategy that involves showroom-style “experience spaces” supported by an online sales platform. Rivian currently makes most of its sales online, and operates six service centers across California, Illinois, Washington and New York, along with a fleet of 11 on-demand mobile service vehicles and a 24/7 service support center in Michigan. Another 120 service centers and 1,000 mobile service vans are on the way, with planned rollouts through to 2023. Rivian’s vehicles will be displayed through four primary types of experience spaces:\n\nHubs: Permanent experience centers situated in high-density city neighborhoods. The first Rivian hub will open in Venice, California on October 17th.\nSeasonal Spaces: Temporary pop-up spaces aimed at introducing the Rivian brand to new communities\nOutposts: Outposts are typically located in adventure destinations, where Rivian vehicles can be rented by users to enable immediate exploration of the outdoors\nPreserves: Protected land that Rivian plans to help conserve and save. Rivian vehicles will be provided for community use in preserves.\n\nIn addition to the experience spaces, test drives can also bearranged online, where an exclusive Field Specialist will be allocated to guide the process.\nLike many recent EV startups, migrating away from traditional dealership sales will allow Rivian to further enhance brand awareness through a refined and relaxed environment. With showrooms located in city neighborhoods and experience-oriented spaces, Rivian hopes to alleviate the pressure to purchase that customers typically experience in sales-centric dealerships and instead provide a refined and information space for them to learn about the brand and engage with the technology that it has to offer. And from a cost perspective, the direct sales strategy through experience spaces combined with a supporting online sales platform will help Rivian reduce inventory financial costs. It will also enable buyers with the option to customize vehicle purchases to their own liking, and provide a completely customer-centric experience as promised. The realized cost efficiencies will also allow greater capital deployment towards other areas of growing the business, such as enhancing customer experience, and ultimately creating incremental value for its shareholders.\nRivian’s R1-Series vehicles will first be made available in North America, with further expansion to Western Europe starting in 2023. Although Rivian’s foreseeable markets lackluster compared to Tesla’s presence across 40 countries on the map, it has been strategically planned to maximize value and support the company’s long-term growth.\nWith the Biden Administration’s recent pledge to reduce greenhouse gas pollution by at least 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030, the U.S. has seen a heightened urgency towards electrifying the transportation sector. Multiple infrastructure bills that are currently under review have been set to include funding for building out the U.S. EV economy. President Biden has also recently made it a national goal to have half of new car sales be emissions-free by 2030. The continued rollout of favorable policy support from the government are expected to stimulate the American EV economy, and propel domestic EV demand growth at a CAGR of 30% through to the end of the decade. This makes strong tailwinds for Rivian, which is expected to have its vehicles become a key part of the estimated 14 million EVs on American roads by 2030.\nRivian’s further expansion into Western Europe beginning 2023 is also a strategic move that is expected to pay large dividends in the long-run. Europe is currently the world’s second-largest EV market, running closely behind China and accounting for 42% of global EV sales in 2020. The region’s EV adoption rate has continued to soar in the first half of 2021, with almost 20% of new passenger vehicle sales being battery-powered. Much of this progress is by courtesy of Europe’s stringent regulatory landscape over greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has recently tightened its climate change policy by raising its emissions reduction target to at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels through the “Fit for 55” legislation package. The pact has also committed to having all new vehicle sales be emissions-free by 2035 to encourage greater EV adoption across the broader European markets, including France and Germany, in coming years. With Tesla only accounting for 7% of Europe’s EV market share, and SUVs continuing to dominate the region’s new car sales, Rivian is well-positioned for high-growth opportunities ahead.\nA Highly Vertically Integrated Business Model\nRivian is also one of the most vertically integrated EV start-ups in recent years. Not only does it design and manufacture its vehicles and related technology in-house, Rivian also operates an exclusive network of charging infrastructure like Tesla does. The EV maker also provides a wide variety of post-sales turnkey solutions to secure recurring revenues, underpinning sustainable long-term growth.\nIn-House Production Strategy\nRivian currently performs its own in-house R&D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, in-car infotainment and connectivity system, integrated safety, chassis and Driver+ ADAS system. Productions for the R1-Series and EDV-Series are also currently in process at its Normal, Illinois plant, which was purchased from Mitsubishi in 2017. The Normal plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 units, with further expansion to 200,000 units by 2023 at full production ramp.\nThe EV maker has begun its hunt for a second assembly plant in the U.S. since July, with speculations of a finalized investment in a factory located near Fort Worth, Texas. The new facility is expected to have an annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. If Rivian confirms its investment in the Texas plant, it is slated to benefit from tax incentives valued at up to $440 million, which offsets some of the significant investment costs. Many California-based companies, including Tesla, have set up offices and manufacturing facilities in Texas in recent years to take advantage of the state’s lower tax rate, as well as affordable costs of living, while pressing forward with expansion plans. The Texas plant would cost Rivian about $5 billion. Much of the capital investment commitment would be deployed towards real property improvements and other construction costs required to bring the plant online by 2024.\nAt the same time, Rivian is also looking for a location to house its productions in Europe starting in 2023. While no site has been confirmed yet, the U.K., Germany and Hungary are amongst the key locations being considered. The materialization of Rivian’s production expansion plans across North America and Europe will strengthen its efficiency in scaling productions, while further bolstering its market penetration capabilities against Tesla and other industry peers, as global EV adoption takes off with heightened demand in coming years.\nTurnkey Post-Sales Solutions\nIn addition to the design and development of its vehicles and batteries, Rivian also makes its own exclusive suite of after-sales services. These include FleetOS, Driver+, Rivian Financial Services and Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance, which are all powered by Rivian Cloud:\n\nRivian Cloud: Facilitated by AWS, Amazon’s cloud business, Rivian Cloud enables remote diagnostics, remote vehicle controls and OTA software updates. It also stores and analyzes data to enable Rivian’s suite of after-sales services and solutions, including FleetOS, Driver+, Rivian Financial Services, and Rivian Telematics-Based Insurance.\nFleetOS: FleetOS is a fleet management tool that accompanies its commercial segment vehicles, starting with the EDV-Series. Using data collected and analyzed by Rivian Cloud, FleetOS is capable of managing vehicle distributions, telematics, software services and solutions, charging cycles, driver safety and training, vehicle security, remote diagnostics, 360+ collision reports, and other connectivity solutions.\nDriver+: The level 2 ADAS that comes standard in every Rivian vehicle. Driver+ is compatible with in-vehicle connectivity to support OTA deployment of level 3 autonomy in the future when the technology becomes available. Driver+ works with a suite of cameras, ultrasonic sensors, radars and a high-precision GPS antenna to enable ADAS features including automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, highway assist, and parking assistance. Driver+ for EDV-Series vehicles also includes an overhead clearance warning feature. Meanwhile, Tesla continues to press forward with its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving developments, which will likely be incorporated into level 4/5 fully autonomous robotaxis in the future and plays a critical role in Tesla’s elevated valuation at the moment. This pretty much puts Rivian in the backseat when pitted against Tesla’s valuation prospects.\nRivian Financial Services: Rivian offers exclusive financing options for its buyers through Rivian Financial Services. The lending program is jointly operated with Chase Bank. Rivian Financial Services enables Rivian to offer its buyers with personalized financing options, while securing recurring revenues from commission fees earned for the conversion of customers on the Rivian Financial Services platform.\nRivian Telematics-Based Insurance: Rivian’s in-house telematics-based insurance uses user data collected from vehicles to tailor the quality of coverage and lower after-sales costs for buyers. Rivian is not the first to launch this kind of insurance offering. With the advent of cloud-based technology enabling real-time analytics on data collected from in-vehicle sensory infrastructure, others including Tesla,GM and Ford have launched similar telematics-based auto insurance programs. Considering better quality of coverage and cost efficiencies offered by telematics-based insurance from both the underwriters’ and consumers’ point of view, the eventual elimination of traditional auto insurance is imminent. By offering in-house telematics-based insurance coverage, Rivian puts itself in a competitive position against industry peers, while also attracting sales by lowering total costs of ownership. Rivian currently offers telematics-based insurance coverage on its vehicles in 48 states, while Tesla only offers similar in California and Texas.\n\nBased on an average useful life of 10 years, Rivian expects each consumer and commercial vehicle sold to generate additional lifetime revenues of $67,900 and $64,600, respectively, through the provision of the above after-sales services.\nBased on an average useful life of 10 years, Rivian expects each consumer and commercial vehicle sold to generate additional lifetime revenues of $67,900 and $64,600, respectively, through the provision of the above after-sales services.\nExclusive Charging Network\nTesla was the first EV maker to set up its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure. Although an incredibly expensive endeavor to take on, it was really the EV titan’s only option to encourage mass market adoption of its vehicles during the early stages when public charging was rare. To date, only Chinese EV maker NIO and Rivian have engaged in similar investments, while the majority of EV startups and legacy automakers have instead relied on exclusive partnerships with public charging infrastructure providers to avoid additional capital deployment.\nThe main reason for Rivian’s investment into building out its own exclusive network of charging infrastructure is really to close the loop on its comprehensive suite of complementary offerings and set its customers free from range anxiety, even when they are travelling further out in secluded areas. Rivian currently offers the following charging solutions:\n\nRivian Adventure Network (“RAN”): RAN will eventually be composed of a network of more than 3,500 Rivian-designed direct current (“DC”) fast chargers located across 600 sites by 2023. The network of fast chargers are designed to charge up to 140 miles within 20 minutes, and will be strategically located in more remote “adventure destinations”, in addition to major highways.\nRivian Waypoints: Rivian’s proprietary network of level 2 chargers installed at partner destinations, such as hotels, offices, restaurants and parks, across the U.S. and Canada. Rivian Waypoint chargers can charge up to 25 miles per hour.\nFleet Charging: Commercial customers have the option of installing Rivian’s proprietary charging depot hardware at onsite. Fleet Charging enables commercial customers to manage fleet charging seamlessly and centrally with FleetOS.\n\nIs the $80 Billion Valuation Viable?\nWhile Rivian is amongst one of the most promising EV startups in recent years, a potential $80 billion valuation at its upcoming IPO would put it in the ranks of established legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Stellantis(NYSE:STLA)and Honda(NYSE:HMC)by market cap. It would also make it almost 1/10ththe value in which Tesla is currently being traded at, despite not having generated any meaningful revenues yet.\nBased on Rivian’s latest S-1 filing, the company has not generated any revenues so far. Commercial productions have only started last month, with deliveries to begin any day now. This puts Rivian in a similar position as Lucid, another highly valued pre-revenue EV startup that went public in July. With a start of production and delivery timeline similar to Rivian’s, Lucid currently trades at about 3x its estimated revenues for 2025 with a market cap of $41 billion. Using the metric as a proxy on Rivian’s anticipated $80 billion valuation, the EV maker would need to generate revenues of $27.3 billion by 2025.\nOur preliminary back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that Rivian would have to sell approximately 350,000 vehicles by 2025 to justify an $80 billion valuation based on comparable industry multiples (i.e. $27.3 billion revenue / $78,000 ASP):\n\nRivian is estimated to sell its vehicles at an average selling price (“ASP”) of about $78,000.\n\n\n\nThe R1T starts at $67,500 with an adventure option priced at $73,000. Pricing on the R1T can go as high as $103,965 with fully loaded options. This generates an estimated ASP of $81,488.\nMeanwhile, the R1S starts at $70,000 with an adventure option priced at $75,500. Pricing on the R1S can go as high as $98,765 with fully loaded options, including the foldable tent and camp kitchen accessories which are currently unavailable for the SUV, but will be eventually. This generates an estimated ASP of $81,422.\nPricing on the EDV-Series is currently undisclosed, but the industry average is about $50,000 with the most expensive Bollinger Deliver-E expected to be priced at $75,000 and the least expensive Canoo MPDV expected to be priced at $33,000.\nThe average of consumer and commercial vehicle lifetime revenues are approximately $66,300 over 10 years. This makes average other revenues of about $6,630 per vehicle per year.\nTaking the three separate vehicle ASPs together, Rivian’s consolidated vehicle ASP is forecasted at about $71,000. Adding average incremental revenues of $6,630 per vehicle on top, Rivian’s ASP is projected at about $78,000.\n\nIn terms of production capacity, Rivian’s Normal plant can currently produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. By 2023, the plant is expected to reach production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year. An additional Europe plant is expected to come online by 2023 to support Rivian’s overseas expansion plans, and a second U.S. plant is expected to come online by 2024. Assuming both additional plants can produce 150,000 vehicles each on an annual basis, total production capacity would reach 500,000 vehicles by 2025. On this basis, Rivian is expected to have sufficient production capacity to meet the revenue threshold required to support its potential $80 billion valuation.\nIn terms of actual demand, global passenger EV sales are expected to exceed 12.2 million units by 2025.28% of related sales are expected to come from Europe,10% from the U.S. and about 15% from Canada. Hence, by geography, Rivian has a total addressable market of about 6.5 million units. With SUVs and pickup trucks accounting for about 70% of annual new car sales, this further narrows Rivian’s total addressable market down to about 4.5 million vehicles by 2025. Selling 350,000 vehicles by 2025 would yield an 8% share of Rivian’s TAM of 4.5 million units. This makes a tough market share figure to compete for against reputable pickup truck and SUV brands like Ford, GM and Toyota(NYSE:TM), which are all undergoing an aggressive transition to electric.\nRivian_-_Supporting_Calculations.pdf\n\nWhile it is not entirely out of the question for Rivian to achieve our projected sales target by 2025, it will be a tough one. The EV maker has almost no room for error in the execution of its long-term growth roadmap in order to justify the $80 billion valuation. With Rivian having recently been a victim of the ongoing chip supply shortages, which had caused delays to the start of production of the R1T and R1S, similar woes are expected to recur as auto chip makers continue to warn of extended lead times that will not be going away anytime soon. Based on these considerations, we are neutral on Rivian’s anticipated valuation ahead of its upcoming IPO.\nConclusion\nDespite a highly vertically integrated business model and robust demand from its niche market, Rivian still has much to prove for its potential $80 billion valuation, let alone competing against the valuation prospects of Tesla. On the considerations of our foregoing analysis, our stance remains neutral on Rivian’s $80 billion valuation ahead of its IPO next month.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853603621"}
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