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2021-10-28

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Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?<blockquote>特斯拉达成巨额交易并突破 1 万亿美元：股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":855780805,"tweetId":"855780805","gmtCreate":1635401410967,"gmtModify":1635401411067,"author":{"id":3578460931764306,"idStr":"3578460931764306","authorId":3578460931764306,"authorIdStr":"3578460931764306","name":"HENGJR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0596e746d9a22ec6462910c02c3129ce","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>help like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>help like</body></html>","text":"help like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855780805","repostId":1127302287,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127302287","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635399924,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127302287?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?<blockquote>特斯拉达成巨额交易并突破 1 万亿美元：股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127302287","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.</li> <li>The current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.</li> <li>Forecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.</li> <li>Long-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0cfebc83d76c5cc8908a766201917d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>在取得良好盈利并以约 42 亿美元的价格从赫兹购买 10 万辆汽车后，特斯拉本周的估值增加了近 2000 亿美元。</li><li>当前的增长轨迹和预计的长期增长在交付和收入方面提供了巨大的潜力，但风险回报情况较弱。</li><li>预测4000亿美元的收入和2000万台的共同结果可能会导致非常低的平均售价。</li><li>当前多重状况的长期维持受到市场份额和竞争以及全行业多重重新评级等多种风险的抵消。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Tesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with&nbsp;deliveries&nbsp;rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a &gt;12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.<blockquote>特斯拉 (TSLA) 突破 1,000 美元大关，在该公司公布盈利高于市场预期并与赫兹 (OTCPK:HTZZ) 达成数十亿美元的巨额交易后，该公司在多日反弹中跻身万亿美元俱乐部。即使规模庞大，特斯拉也继续快速增长，第三季度的交付量环比增长约 20%，达到 241,300 辆。特斯拉以比电动汽车同行大得多的规模提供了非常有吸引力的增长率，因此是华尔街最热门的名字之一。交易量突破6000万笔，是特斯拉10天平均水平的两倍多，交易量超过600亿美元。尽管其中很大一部分可能是快速交易，以利用当天超过 12% 的波动，但特斯拉一直是一份持续赠送的礼物，最终，有可能在短期顶部买入，就像一月份一样。即使这笔交易带来了多个季度的收入和交付量增长，目前买入的风险回报前景也不太令人信服——虽然做空特斯拉不一定是个好主意，但这似乎不是买入的最佳时机。</blockquote> A Hertz Fleet Deal<blockquote>赫兹舰队交易</blockquote> The Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.<blockquote>赫兹的交易表明，对大批量车队电动汽车的需求是存在的，这家租车运营商为特斯拉车辆下了价值超过其车队规模 20% 的订单。有了订单，赫兹将提供该国最大的电动汽车。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e286a4ee0a7807efc3b113fc7120d2a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Graphic from Hertz<blockquote>赫兹图形</blockquote> Hertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.<blockquote>随着电动汽车变得更加“主流”，赫兹正在支持“全球对电动汽车不断增长的需求和兴趣”，选择在未来 14 个月内投资 42 亿美元购买特斯拉汽车，预计首批交付和上市将于 11 月开始。</blockquote> Because EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.<blockquote>由于电动汽车依赖于公共充电基础设施，而公共充电基础设施可能比加油站有限或更难找到，因此赫兹将“在其定位网络中安装数千个充电器”，从而增加通过特斯拉提供的 3,000 个超级充电网络。此外，赫兹的应用程序将提供“数字化指导，以教育客户有关电动汽车的知识，让他们快速上路，并很快推出加快的电动汽车租赁预订流程。”预订车辆的客户必须知道如何使用某些功能，如自动驾驶仪、FSD或通过应用程序控制汽车。</blockquote> Hertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating&nbsp;metrics&nbsp;have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.<blockquote>赫兹最近确实在今年夏天早些时候摆脱了美国破产法第 11 章的破产，虽然有人对如此规模的交易的确切资金来自 30 亿美元的总流动性提出了一些疑问，但运营指标已显着改善，可与 2019 年大流行前的水平相媲美。尽管收入比2019年下降了约11%，但车辆利用率为78%，落后3个百分点，因为RPD和RPU随着价格上涨而大幅增加。与 2019 年第二季度相比，赫兹的 RPD 增长了 53%，达到 65 美元以上，每月 RPU 增长了 48%，达到 1,557 美元 - 由于高需求和供应不足，租车定价更高确实有助于这些指标，但利用率反映了行业的强劲反弹。</blockquote> For Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.<blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，与赫兹的交易不仅标志着2022财年收入和交付量的大幅增长，而且标志着乘车租赁/共享/叫车领域大规模车队接受度的更广泛趋势。100,000 辆占特斯拉当前 TTM 销量的近 12%，约占 2022 财年预计交付量和收入的 7%。这是单个客户的巨大贡献，但它为电动汽车在打车/租赁领域的未来提供了光明的前景——采用曲线可能会比预期更快。</blockquote> In the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.<blockquote>在更广泛的行业中，Uber (UBER) 正在与多个不同的参与者合作，包括起亚 (OTCPK:KIMTF)、Arrival (ARVL) 和 TotalEnergies (TTE)，以加速电动汽车的采用，而 Waymo (GOOGL) 和 Cruise (GM) 正在致力于自动驾驶机器人出租车服务，这可能还需要数年时间才能实现大规模运营。电动汽车可以填补部分空白，特斯拉有能力为车队运营商生产数十万辆汽车，广发上海市、柏林市和德克萨斯州都在扩大规模并建设新产能。</blockquote> Continuing Along the Growth Trajectory<blockquote>继续沿着增长轨迹</blockquote> Tesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度的业绩不言自明，随着业绩指标全面创下新高，该公司全力以赴。</blockquote> The company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.<blockquote>该公司实现了“有史以来最好的净利润、营业利润和毛利润”，营业利润率高于预期，运营现金流创下历史新高，弗里蒙特生产水平最高，多项指标强劲增长。汽车收入同比增长 58%，环比增长 18%，略微落后于交付量约 20% 的环比增长，平均售价同比下滑 6%。中国的更高贡献可能是平均售价下降以及交付量上升的一个重要因素，据报道，该地区本季度的交付量为 133,238 辆，即 55.2%；由于平均售价呈下降趋势，这一数字高于预期。这一数字比第二季度高出 6.3 个百分点，9 月份交付和出口量约为 56,000 辆，比 6 月份高出 70%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4f9c664d1a45c750aac76ffc372b2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"732\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Graphic from Tesla<blockquote>来自特斯拉的图形</blockquote> Deliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.<blockquote>过去四个季度，交付量开始进入高速增长轨迹，2020 年第三季度出现增长。从那时起，随着电动汽车的采用和产能的增加，特斯拉的交付量几乎翻了一番，比大流行前的增长速度快得多。目前，特斯拉的年产能接近 110 万辆，比 TTM 交付量高出近 40%，这使得该公司在柏林和德克萨斯州竣工之前有更大的增长空间。</blockquote> Hard To Buy Here<blockquote>这里很难买到</blockquote> Even with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.<blockquote>尽管增长率和运营指标全面令人印象深刻，但在本周股价走高后，很难得出积极的风险回报前景——盈利和 42 亿美元的赫兹交易一度使特斯拉的估值增加了近 2000 亿美元，或在交易宣布后的短短两天内就达到了 1750 亿美元的高点。该交易和/或收益带来的新协同效应是否足以支持在该公告发布后购买一家价值超过 15% 的公司？在这里，情况看起来并非如此。</blockquote> Over the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.<blockquote>在短期内，这种疯狂的交易和快速、高百分比的反弹通常是非常短暂的——特斯拉在 2020 年初分拆前最后一次反弹至 900 美元，该股在不到一周内下跌了 20%，而强劲反弹至 2021 年初分拆后近 900 美元，股价在下跌 10% 后持有一个月，然后在 3 月份又下跌了 35%。短期交易可以获得回报，但从长期角度来看，前景是光明的，但回报潜力却没有那么大。</blockquote> Tesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.<blockquote>特斯拉预计，它可以推动交付量的长期平均年增长率为 50%，从 2021 财年可能的 90 万辆交付量来看，到 2025 年，特斯拉每年的交付量将达到约 450 万辆。将这一增长率进一步延长至 2030 年，特斯拉将交付 3400 万辆汽车，占 2020 年全球汽车销量的一半；这似乎是一个非常不现实的场景，尽管特斯拉表示目标是到那时交付 2000 万次。要达到这一数字，特斯拉必须比 2025 年的预计数字每年增长约 35%。总而言之，2025 年的交付量可能接近全球汽车总销量的 5%，而 2030 年的交付量可能接近 20%。鉴于该行业的竞争，很难看到特斯拉独自占据如此大的市场份额，并以如此大的优势击败竞争对手——即使是苹果（AAPL）在智能手机领域也仅占据近15%的市场份额，而它被广泛认为是行业前三名。</blockquote> With that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.<blockquote>根据这一预测，特斯拉还看到了收入达到 4000 亿美元的道路 - 这将假设收入增长的同比增长速度远远快于交付量 - 将交付量推向 2000 万辆需要 5 年平均年增长率约 33% 在 4 年平均年增长率为 50% 之后，5 年平均年增长率约为 20%，而 4 年平均年增长率为 34%。</blockquote> To hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable &lt;$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.<blockquote>为了实现这两个数字，即交付 2000 万辆的收入达到 4000 亿美元，特斯拉必须大幅削减平均售价，到 2027 年降至 25,000 美元，到 2029 年降至约 16,500 美元，假设储能和其他方面的增长率业务继续。特斯拉确实设想在大多数主要领域——小型/中型/大型SUV、轿车/卡车，以及价格实惠的&lt;25,000美元车型和机器人出租车；然而，这些最有可能的平均售价不会低于 20,000 美元，这意味着人们对到 2030 年同时实现这两个目标的可行性产生了一些重大怀疑。这里没有包括的另一种可能性是，特斯拉不出售机器人出租车车队，而是自己管理着数百万辆的车队，因此有相当一部分2030年的目标销量没有反映在平均售价中。</blockquote> Should Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.<blockquote>如果特斯拉超出交付数据，收入可能会被严重误导；但如果特斯拉通过多个市场机会实现 2000 万辆汽车的目标是正确的，那么收入可能会完全掩盖这一潜力。在这方面，时间会证明一切。</blockquote> Back to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.<blockquote>回到市场份额——根据行业趋势，到 2030 年，特斯拉的汽车销量可能会达到全球 10% 至 20% 左右。然而，很难看到特斯拉实现并保持这样的据点，因为小鹏汽车（XPEV）和蔚来（蔚来）等初创公司在价格和技术方面对其构成严峻挑战（尽管两者在地理上仍主要局限于中国），而ICE领导者正在积极推动电动汽车。因此，电动汽车行业可能会保持分散，特斯拉将无法垄断该行业，因为它主导着销量并主导着行业。该公司的总市场份额略高于4%，随着竞争迅速加剧，市场份额增长可能达到这一程度的唯一情况是产能达到1500万辆，并保持比同行的电动汽车制造能力高出50%以上。</blockquote> In the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.<blockquote>从长远来看，更广泛的前景是电动汽车将成为新常态，制造商同意将电动汽车的销量提高到 40% 至 50%。总体目标看起来仍然是电动汽车占主导地位甚至全电动汽车的未来。预计到2030年，数百款新型电动汽车车型将上路，这将大大增加消费者的选择和该车型的整体供应量。随着内燃机汽车成为旧的“黄金标准”，电动汽车有望成为“新标准”，最终行业颠覆和技术的估值溢价可能会消退，并反映与内燃机群体相似的倍数 - 从长远来看，大多数制造商可能都会在相同的车辆类型、相似的规格和技术上竞争。尽管特斯拉一直处于领先地位，但同行正在迎头赶上，并因竞争/市场份额压力和较低的收入增长率以及行业估值的下降而失去了多重颠覆，类似于冰制造商所经历的情况，当前的“黄金标准”可能会看到销售额的 3 倍和收益的 21 倍（4000 亿美元收入的净利润率为 14%），仅提供约 20% 的巨大上涨空间。特斯拉确实提供了非常有吸引力的增长率，有时还有不可预测的潜力，但由于目前风险回报情况看起来不利，未来可能会有更好的购买机会。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?<blockquote>特斯拉达成巨额交易并突破 1 万亿美元：股票值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?<blockquote>特斯拉达成巨额交易并突破 1 万亿美元：股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-28 13:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.</li> <li>The current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.</li> <li>Forecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.</li> <li>Long-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0cfebc83d76c5cc8908a766201917d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>在取得良好盈利并以约 42 亿美元的价格从赫兹购买 10 万辆汽车后，特斯拉本周的估值增加了近 2000 亿美元。</li><li>当前的增长轨迹和预计的长期增长在交付和收入方面提供了巨大的潜力，但风险回报情况较弱。</li><li>预测4000亿美元的收入和2000万台的共同结果可能会导致非常低的平均售价。</li><li>当前多重状况的长期维持受到市场份额和竞争以及全行业多重重新评级等多种风险的抵消。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Tesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with&nbsp;deliveries&nbsp;rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a &gt;12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.<blockquote>特斯拉 (TSLA) 突破 1,000 美元大关，在该公司公布盈利高于市场预期并与赫兹 (OTCPK:HTZZ) 达成数十亿美元的巨额交易后，该公司在多日反弹中跻身万亿美元俱乐部。即使规模庞大，特斯拉也继续快速增长，第三季度的交付量环比增长约 20%，达到 241,300 辆。特斯拉以比电动汽车同行大得多的规模提供了非常有吸引力的增长率，因此是华尔街最热门的名字之一。交易量突破6000万笔，是特斯拉10天平均水平的两倍多，交易量超过600亿美元。尽管其中很大一部分可能是快速交易，以利用当天超过 12% 的波动，但特斯拉一直是一份持续赠送的礼物，最终，有可能在短期顶部买入，就像一月份一样。即使这笔交易带来了多个季度的收入和交付量增长，目前买入的风险回报前景也不太令人信服——虽然做空特斯拉不一定是个好主意，但这似乎不是买入的最佳时机。</blockquote> A Hertz Fleet Deal<blockquote>赫兹舰队交易</blockquote> The Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.<blockquote>赫兹的交易表明，对大批量车队电动汽车的需求是存在的，这家租车运营商为特斯拉车辆下了价值超过其车队规模 20% 的订单。有了订单，赫兹将提供该国最大的电动汽车。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e286a4ee0a7807efc3b113fc7120d2a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Graphic from Hertz<blockquote>赫兹图形</blockquote> Hertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.<blockquote>随着电动汽车变得更加“主流”，赫兹正在支持“全球对电动汽车不断增长的需求和兴趣”，选择在未来 14 个月内投资 42 亿美元购买特斯拉汽车，预计首批交付和上市将于 11 月开始。</blockquote> Because EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.<blockquote>由于电动汽车依赖于公共充电基础设施，而公共充电基础设施可能比加油站有限或更难找到，因此赫兹将“在其定位网络中安装数千个充电器”，从而增加通过特斯拉提供的 3,000 个超级充电网络。此外，赫兹的应用程序将提供“数字化指导，以教育客户有关电动汽车的知识，让他们快速上路，并很快推出加快的电动汽车租赁预订流程。”预订车辆的客户必须知道如何使用某些功能，如自动驾驶仪、FSD或通过应用程序控制汽车。</blockquote> Hertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating&nbsp;metrics&nbsp;have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.<blockquote>赫兹最近确实在今年夏天早些时候摆脱了美国破产法第 11 章的破产，虽然有人对如此规模的交易的确切资金来自 30 亿美元的总流动性提出了一些疑问，但运营指标已显着改善，可与 2019 年大流行前的水平相媲美。尽管收入比2019年下降了约11%，但车辆利用率为78%，落后3个百分点，因为RPD和RPU随着价格上涨而大幅增加。与 2019 年第二季度相比，赫兹的 RPD 增长了 53%，达到 65 美元以上，每月 RPU 增长了 48%，达到 1,557 美元 - 由于高需求和供应不足，租车定价更高确实有助于这些指标，但利用率反映了行业的强劲反弹。</blockquote> For Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.<blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，与赫兹的交易不仅标志着2022财年收入和交付量的大幅增长，而且标志着乘车租赁/共享/叫车领域大规模车队接受度的更广泛趋势。100,000 辆占特斯拉当前 TTM 销量的近 12%，约占 2022 财年预计交付量和收入的 7%。这是单个客户的巨大贡献，但它为电动汽车在打车/租赁领域的未来提供了光明的前景——采用曲线可能会比预期更快。</blockquote> In the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.<blockquote>在更广泛的行业中，Uber (UBER) 正在与多个不同的参与者合作，包括起亚 (OTCPK:KIMTF)、Arrival (ARVL) 和 TotalEnergies (TTE)，以加速电动汽车的采用，而 Waymo (GOOGL) 和 Cruise (GM) 正在致力于自动驾驶机器人出租车服务，这可能还需要数年时间才能实现大规模运营。电动汽车可以填补部分空白，特斯拉有能力为车队运营商生产数十万辆汽车，广发上海市、柏林市和德克萨斯州都在扩大规模并建设新产能。</blockquote> Continuing Along the Growth Trajectory<blockquote>继续沿着增长轨迹</blockquote> Tesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度的业绩不言自明，随着业绩指标全面创下新高，该公司全力以赴。</blockquote> The company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.<blockquote>该公司实现了“有史以来最好的净利润、营业利润和毛利润”，营业利润率高于预期，运营现金流创下历史新高，弗里蒙特生产水平最高，多项指标强劲增长。汽车收入同比增长 58%，环比增长 18%，略微落后于交付量约 20% 的环比增长，平均售价同比下滑 6%。中国的更高贡献可能是平均售价下降以及交付量上升的一个重要因素，据报道，该地区本季度的交付量为 133,238 辆，即 55.2%；由于平均售价呈下降趋势，这一数字高于预期。这一数字比第二季度高出 6.3 个百分点，9 月份交付和出口量约为 56,000 辆，比 6 月份高出 70%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4f9c664d1a45c750aac76ffc372b2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"732\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Graphic from Tesla<blockquote>来自特斯拉的图形</blockquote> Deliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.<blockquote>过去四个季度，交付量开始进入高速增长轨迹，2020 年第三季度出现增长。从那时起，随着电动汽车的采用和产能的增加，特斯拉的交付量几乎翻了一番，比大流行前的增长速度快得多。目前，特斯拉的年产能接近 110 万辆，比 TTM 交付量高出近 40%，这使得该公司在柏林和德克萨斯州竣工之前有更大的增长空间。</blockquote> Hard To Buy Here<blockquote>这里很难买到</blockquote> Even with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.<blockquote>尽管增长率和运营指标全面令人印象深刻，但在本周股价走高后，很难得出积极的风险回报前景——盈利和 42 亿美元的赫兹交易一度使特斯拉的估值增加了近 2000 亿美元，或在交易宣布后的短短两天内就达到了 1750 亿美元的高点。该交易和/或收益带来的新协同效应是否足以支持在该公告发布后购买一家价值超过 15% 的公司？在这里，情况看起来并非如此。</blockquote> Over the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.<blockquote>在短期内，这种疯狂的交易和快速、高百分比的反弹通常是非常短暂的——特斯拉在 2020 年初分拆前最后一次反弹至 900 美元，该股在不到一周内下跌了 20%，而强劲反弹至 2021 年初分拆后近 900 美元，股价在下跌 10% 后持有一个月，然后在 3 月份又下跌了 35%。短期交易可以获得回报，但从长期角度来看，前景是光明的，但回报潜力却没有那么大。</blockquote> Tesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.<blockquote>特斯拉预计，它可以推动交付量的长期平均年增长率为 50%，从 2021 财年可能的 90 万辆交付量来看，到 2025 年，特斯拉每年的交付量将达到约 450 万辆。将这一增长率进一步延长至 2030 年，特斯拉将交付 3400 万辆汽车，占 2020 年全球汽车销量的一半；这似乎是一个非常不现实的场景，尽管特斯拉表示目标是到那时交付 2000 万次。要达到这一数字，特斯拉必须比 2025 年的预计数字每年增长约 35%。总而言之，2025 年的交付量可能接近全球汽车总销量的 5%，而 2030 年的交付量可能接近 20%。鉴于该行业的竞争，很难看到特斯拉独自占据如此大的市场份额，并以如此大的优势击败竞争对手——即使是苹果（AAPL）在智能手机领域也仅占据近15%的市场份额，而它被广泛认为是行业前三名。</blockquote> With that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.<blockquote>根据这一预测，特斯拉还看到了收入达到 4000 亿美元的道路 - 这将假设收入增长的同比增长速度远远快于交付量 - 将交付量推向 2000 万辆需要 5 年平均年增长率约 33% 在 4 年平均年增长率为 50% 之后，5 年平均年增长率约为 20%，而 4 年平均年增长率为 34%。</blockquote> To hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable &lt;$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.<blockquote>为了实现这两个数字，即交付 2000 万辆的收入达到 4000 亿美元，特斯拉必须大幅削减平均售价，到 2027 年降至 25,000 美元，到 2029 年降至约 16,500 美元，假设储能和其他方面的增长率业务继续。特斯拉确实设想在大多数主要领域——小型/中型/大型SUV、轿车/卡车，以及价格实惠的&lt;25,000美元车型和机器人出租车；然而，这些最有可能的平均售价不会低于 20,000 美元，这意味着人们对到 2030 年同时实现这两个目标的可行性产生了一些重大怀疑。这里没有包括的另一种可能性是，特斯拉不出售机器人出租车车队，而是自己管理着数百万辆的车队，因此有相当一部分2030年的目标销量没有反映在平均售价中。</blockquote> Should Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.<blockquote>如果特斯拉超出交付数据，收入可能会被严重误导；但如果特斯拉通过多个市场机会实现 2000 万辆汽车的目标是正确的，那么收入可能会完全掩盖这一潜力。在这方面，时间会证明一切。</blockquote> Back to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.<blockquote>回到市场份额——根据行业趋势，到 2030 年，特斯拉的汽车销量可能会达到全球 10% 至 20% 左右。然而，很难看到特斯拉实现并保持这样的据点，因为小鹏汽车（XPEV）和蔚来（蔚来）等初创公司在价格和技术方面对其构成严峻挑战（尽管两者在地理上仍主要局限于中国），而ICE领导者正在积极推动电动汽车。因此，电动汽车行业可能会保持分散，特斯拉将无法垄断该行业，因为它主导着销量并主导着行业。该公司的总市场份额略高于4%，随着竞争迅速加剧，市场份额增长可能达到这一程度的唯一情况是产能达到1500万辆，并保持比同行的电动汽车制造能力高出50%以上。</blockquote> In the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.<blockquote>从长远来看，更广泛的前景是电动汽车将成为新常态，制造商同意将电动汽车的销量提高到 40% 至 50%。总体目标看起来仍然是电动汽车占主导地位甚至全电动汽车的未来。预计到2030年，数百款新型电动汽车车型将上路，这将大大增加消费者的选择和该车型的整体供应量。随着内燃机汽车成为旧的“黄金标准”，电动汽车有望成为“新标准”，最终行业颠覆和技术的估值溢价可能会消退，并反映与内燃机群体相似的倍数 - 从长远来看，大多数制造商可能都会在相同的车辆类型、相似的规格和技术上竞争。尽管特斯拉一直处于领先地位，但同行正在迎头赶上，并因竞争/市场份额压力和较低的收入增长率以及行业估值的下降而失去了多重颠覆，类似于冰制造商所经历的情况，当前的“黄金标准”可能会看到销售额的 3 倍和收益的 21 倍（4000 亿美元收入的净利润率为 14%），仅提供约 20% 的巨大上涨空间。特斯拉确实提供了非常有吸引力的增长率，有时还有不可预测的潜力，但由于目前风险回报情况看起来不利，未来可能会有更好的购买机会。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127302287","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.\nThe current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.\nForecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.\nLong-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with deliveries rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a >12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.\nA Hertz Fleet Deal\nThe Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.\nGraphic from Hertz\nHertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.\nBecause EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.\nHertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating metrics have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.\nFor Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.\nIn the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.\nContinuing Along the Growth Trajectory\nTesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.\nThe company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.\nGraphic from Tesla\nDeliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.\nHard To Buy Here\nEven with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.\nOver the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.\nTesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.\nWith that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.\nTo hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable <$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.\nShould Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.\nBack to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.\nIn the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/855780805"}