AngelAw
2021-10-27
Buy can earn profit
Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>
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Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对 Sea (SE) 采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的上涨速度太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有疫情投资像Sea那样偶然。在大流行之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股 50 美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了 Sea 三个关键领域（在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付）的增长，Sea 的股价已超过 350 美元，自疫情开始以来上涨了约 7 倍，到 2021 年迄今为止上涨了近 2 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场的不安以及最近 9 月/10 月成长型股票的调整，我们不得不问：<b>大海真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my <b>neutral</b> opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>意见在海上。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票在五年后仍将是权重股。但我着眼于未来 1-2 年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超越了自己，短期内无法有意义地跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting <b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark <b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看看估值；以目前接近 355 美元的股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1,962 亿美元，已经成为超大型市值，超过了道琼斯 30 指数许多成分股的规模。在扣除 Sea 最新资产负债表上的 58.9 亿美元现金和 12.8 亿美元可转换债务后，该公司的结果<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计 2022 财年 Sea 将产生 135.4 亿美元的收入，同比增长 49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea 的贸易状况非常糟糕<b>14.1 倍 EV/2022 财年收入倍数。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea 的综合毛利率仅为约 40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约 15%。大海能走多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea 在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，随着调整后的 EBITDA 亏损继续增加，我很难相信对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出有意义的实现目标轨迹的公司来说，约 2000 亿美元的估值是合适的。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是 Sea 在一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在 2020 年和 2021 年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会坚挺吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的做法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是，后疫情时期，学校和办公室的回归，将削弱今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added <b>76 million net-new QAUs</b> in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这是真的，它还没有发生。Sea 的季度活跃用户数量放缓至约 3800 万，Sea 补充道<b>7600万净新增QAU</b>第二季度的增速大致与前两个季度的总和相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长 85%，达到 9,220 万，付费用户占 Sea 总 QAU 的 13%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming 用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年同期的10%上升了三个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这其中蕴含着投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，也是我不反对的一个催化剂：Sea 已经拥有大量的专属受众，而且它也被证明擅长内容策划和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，内部开发，仍然是该公司最大的热门）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea 或许能够从这 7 亿多用户群中获得越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 Sea 首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第二季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p> Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone. It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale. Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\" We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的移动大逃杀游戏。根据 App Annie 的数据，第二季度 Google Play 上的平均月活跃用户排名全球第三。此外，Free Fire 本季度日活跃用户峰值超过 1.5 亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏达到这个规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，Free Fire在第二季度仍然是东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度收入最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，在印度也连续三个季度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了吸引力，根据App Annie，该游戏在过去两个季度被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。第二季度，《Free Fire》也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中收入第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的流行病影响。例如，在 Sea 的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天新冠病例激增后，学校又转向在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于 Sea 第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长 65%，达到 12 亿美元，但对于 2021 财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长率仅为 45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that <b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对 Sea 的持续担忧是：投资者何时才能最终无法忽视不断累积的损失？我继续强调<b>Sea 的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要看好后者，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。海运调整后 EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li> <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>海洋还没有走上稳定的道路；该公司 2021 财年调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 -2410 万美元，而 2020 财年的利润为 770 万美元。</li><li>Gaming 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长约 3 亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务领域同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于 Sea 来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级 EBITDA 盈亏平衡。然而，Sea 最大的市场印度尼西亚继续落后（在这个市场，Sea 与 Tokopedia 等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP 亏损比调整后 EBITDA 要广泛得多；今年迄今为止，截至第二季度，Sea 的 GAAP 亏损为 -8.561 亿美元，净利润率为 -21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea 最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了 35 亿美元的新美国存托股票和 25 亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出信号，表明在相当长的一段时间内，Sea 将需要运营之外的更多流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对 Sea 仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。巨额亏损和高估值在 2021 年牛市中似乎是古怪的概念，但展望 2022 年，当华尔街大多数人呼吁未来交易波动时，Sea 等成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li> <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li> <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li> <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li> <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着这家东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea 的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea 并没有像预期的那样在后大流行时期遭受博彩业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电子商务GMV继续爆炸式增长，尽管损失也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布大规模融资，凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是 Sea 的关键限制因素，股票交易价格约为远期收入的 14 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对 Sea (SE) 采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的上涨速度太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有疫情投资像Sea那样偶然。在大流行之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股 50 美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了 Sea 三个关键领域（在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付）的增长，Sea 的股价已超过 350 美元，自疫情开始以来上涨了约 7 倍，到 2021 年迄今为止上涨了近 2 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场的不安以及最近 9 月/10 月成长型股票的调整，我们不得不问：<b>大海真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my <b>neutral</b> opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>意见在海上。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票在五年后仍将是权重股。但我着眼于未来 1-2 年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超越了自己，短期内无法有意义地跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting <b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark <b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看看估值；以目前接近 355 美元的股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1,962 亿美元，已经成为超大型市值，超过了道琼斯 30 指数许多成分股的规模。在扣除 Sea 最新资产负债表上的 58.9 亿美元现金和 12.8 亿美元可转换债务后，该公司的结果<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计 2022 财年 Sea 将产生 135.4 亿美元的收入，同比增长 49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea 的贸易状况非常糟糕<b>14.1 倍 EV/2022 财年收入倍数。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea 的综合毛利率仅为约 40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约 15%。大海能走多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea 在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，随着调整后的 EBITDA 亏损继续增加，我很难相信对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出有意义的实现目标轨迹的公司来说，约 2000 亿美元的估值是合适的。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是 Sea 在一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在 2020 年和 2021 年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会坚挺吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的做法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是，后疫情时期，学校和办公室的回归，将削弱今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added <b>76 million net-new QAUs</b> in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这是真的，它还没有发生。Sea 的季度活跃用户数量放缓至约 3800 万，Sea 补充道<b>7600万净新增QAU</b>第二季度的增速大致与前两个季度的总和相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长 85%，达到 9,220 万，付费用户占 Sea 总 QAU 的 13%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming 用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年同期的10%上升了三个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这其中蕴含着投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，也是我不反对的一个催化剂：Sea 已经拥有大量的专属受众，而且它也被证明擅长内容策划和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，内部开发，仍然是该公司最大的热门）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea 或许能够从这 7 亿多用户群中获得越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 Sea 首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第二季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p> Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone. It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale. Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\" We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的移动大逃杀游戏。根据 App Annie 的数据，第二季度 Google Play 上的平均月活跃用户排名全球第三。此外，Free Fire 本季度日活跃用户峰值超过 1.5 亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏达到这个规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，Free Fire在第二季度仍然是东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度收入最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，在印度也连续三个季度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了吸引力，根据App Annie，该游戏在过去两个季度被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。第二季度，《Free Fire》也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中收入第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的流行病影响。例如，在 Sea 的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天新冠病例激增后，学校又转向在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于 Sea 第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长 65%，达到 12 亿美元，但对于 2021 财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长率仅为 45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that <b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对 Sea 的持续担忧是：投资者何时才能最终无法忽视不断累积的损失？我继续强调<b>Sea 的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要看好后者，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。海运调整后 EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li> <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>海洋还没有走上稳定的道路；该公司 2021 财年调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 -2410 万美元，而 2020 财年的利润为 770 万美元。</li><li>Gaming 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长约 3 亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务领域同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于 Sea 来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级 EBITDA 盈亏平衡。然而，Sea 最大的市场印度尼西亚继续落后（在这个市场，Sea 与 Tokopedia 等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP 亏损比调整后 EBITDA 要广泛得多；今年迄今为止，截至第二季度，Sea 的 GAAP 亏损为 -8.561 亿美元，净利润率为 -21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea 最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了 35 亿美元的新美国存托股票和 25 亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出信号，表明在相当长的一段时间内，Sea 将需要运营之外的更多流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对 Sea 仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。巨额亏损和高估值在 2021 年牛市中似乎是古怪的概念，但展望 2022 年，当华尔街大多数人呼吁未来交易波动时，Sea 等成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186134889","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.\nSea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.\nE-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.\nSea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.\nValuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.\n\nDeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.\nData by YCharts\nEveryone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:does Sea really have upside left?\nI continue to retain my neutral opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.\nLet's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $191.59 billion.For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark 14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.\nFundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?\nIn my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.\nGaming remains sturdy\nOne of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.\nIf this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added 76 million net-new QAUs in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.\nFigure 1. Sea gaming user counts\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.\nHere's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.\n\n\n It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.\n\n\n Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"\n\nWe'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.\nSea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.\nLosses and capital raise may raise eyebrows\nThe continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.\nFigure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe chart above tells us two things:\n\nSea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.\nGaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.\n\nIt's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).\nGAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.\nWe note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.\nKey takeaways\nI don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3691,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/855833018"}
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